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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (10 Viewers)

Unless Stewart goes down I think his rushing totals, both floor and ceiling will have a marginal effect on his value. It's all about the targets/receptions; that's where the bulk of his value is going to come from. What are people projecting in that department? To me, this is one of the hardest situations to project this year. History obviously says there shouldn't be many targets coming his way yet we know between Cam running less and CMC's skill set they are assuredly going to increase. But by how much? In a vacuum he's a 60+ catch guy but what will he be on this team? This is honestly all I care about.

 
I'm still baffled that people keep assuming his primary value stems from the receiving game. Dude is a great between-the-tackles RB. He's going to be a 3 down workhorse. Maybe not fully in charge this year with JStew hanging around but ultimately that will be his role. i care about all his touches.

 
I got him at 3.02 in a 16 team league. I may have reached but he wasnt going to be there for me in the 4th and no trading of picks so wth. Im on the bandwagon! Homer pick too. :yes:

 
If he would have landed on another team that didn't have a qb who leads the team in rushing tds some years and steals gl looks constantly, didn't have another Rb who he will split time with, and a qb who at least had a strong history of checking down to the Rb I would be so much more excited about him. 

I think as a player purely judging him by his talent he's a stud.  But we'd all be lying to ourselves if we didn't acknowledge there are a lot of red flags and sirens blaring in our faces about how he's being drafted way too high this year and will probably disappoint BC of the team he's on.  

Put mccaffery on just about any other team splitting with jstew and I'd be a lot more excited.  As long as the qb doesn't dominate gl touches and is known to throw check downs to rbs And Rb screens.  

I have the fort pick I my dynasty rookie draft coming end of aug.  I have flip flopped from mccaffery to mixon to fournette to cook back to mccaffery and now on mixon again.  And honestly I think mccaffery might be the more talented player.  But I like mixon's situation better, even competing with hill and Bernard.  I think he will get more usage and BC he's bigger the bengals will use him in more of a traditional Rb role with the upside to be a monster in the passing game as well

 
rickyg said:
If he would have landed on another team that didn't have a qb who leads the team in rushing tds some years and steals gl looks constantly, didn't have another Rb who he will split time with, and a qb who at least had a strong history of checking down to the Rb I would be so much more excited about him. 

I think as a player purely judging him by his talent he's a stud.  But we'd all be lying to ourselves if we didn't acknowledge there are a lot of red flags and sirens blaring in our faces about how he's being drafted way too high this year and will probably disappoint BC of the team he's on.  

Put mccaffery on just about any other team splitting with jstew and I'd be a lot more excited.  As long as the qb doesn't dominate gl touches and is known to throw check downs to rbs And Rb screens.  

I have the fort pick I my dynasty rookie draft coming end of aug.  I have flip flopped from mccaffery to mixon to fournette to cook back to mccaffery and now on mixon again.  And honestly I think mccaffery might be the more talented player.  But I like mixon's situation better, even competing with hill and Bernard.  I think he will get more usage and BC he's bigger the bengals will use him in more of a traditional Rb role with the upside to be a monster in the passing game as well
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I would not be surprised at all if the Panthers tone down Cam's usage as a runner. Less could be more with him, especially if it keeps him healthy. I couldn't be more excited about CMC. Not to make it a stat thing but 2 years ago he was incredible and last year he was good but not as good. His usage rate was fricken sick nasty last year because they had nothing for QB at Stanford and he still succeeded. Cam can vulture some of his touchdowns because having a QB that demands respect as both a passer and a runner will allow us to see that dangerous 2015 version of CMC

 
I'm glad that so many folks are getting caught up in the hype because it is artificially inflating CMC's value.

The reality is he doesn't have enough size or power to be a lead back in the NFL.

If you watch him on tape he's got all those nice little jitterbug moves but he can't slam it in there, whenever there's a collision with a defensive player he's the one going backwards.

He can be a great change of pace back and he can be the third down back. Throw in the fact that he can return kicks and you have a very valuable player, both in the NFL and in fantasy terms (particularly PPR leagues).

But don't think you're getting a RB#1 because he's not that guy. He's the next Danny Woodhead. 

 
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I disagree that mccaffery can't be an rb1.  There is more than one way to run up the middle.  That 12 yard run he had was a perfect example of this.  You can be a banger like Stewart or fournette.  Sure.  That's the traditional style.  

But you can also be a smaller finesse back with great vision and quick feet.  And the ability I make yourself small through the holes and patiently follow your blockers. That's like a frank gore and even dion Lewis who if you recall in 2015 was the lead back for the patriots and had several nice runs up the gut every game.  Yes dion got injured but that's dion.  He's fragile.  Mccaffery has shown durability in jos career.  

So if they need 1 tough yard maybe they throw in their bigger back up Rb to get it. 

But there is no reason whatsoever why a guy like mccaffery can't be a 17-20 carry, 5-7 catch per game Rb and be very effective doing it. 

 
Miro Z said:
I'm glad that so many folks are getting caught up in the hype because it is artificially inflating CMC's value.

The reality is he doesn't have enough size or power to be a lead back in the NFL.

If you watch him on tape he's got all those nice little jitterbug moves but he can't slam it in there, whenever there's a collision with a defensive player he's the one going backwards.

He can be a great change of pace back and he can be the third down back. Throw in the fact that he can return kicks and you have a very valuable player, both in the NFL and in fantasy terms (particularly PPR leagues).

But don't think you're getting a RB#1 because he's not that guy. He's the next Danny Woodhead. 
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Size isn't the only metric to measure these things, and it really isn't a very important metric in the first place

But if that's the one  you prefer then: McCaffrey is 5'11" and weighs 202lbs. That's closer to Tiki Barber than Danny Woodhead. Did you feel the same way about Maurice Jones-Drew or Jamaal Charles?

 
Kid looks good. Looked amazing in college. 

I don't like his team situation, QB vulture, competition from JStew, or his ridiculous 3rd round ADP. That's just too damn high. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
Unless Stewart goes down I think his rushing totals, both floor and ceiling will have a marginal effect on his value. It's all about the targets/receptions; that's where the bulk of his value is going to come from. What are people projecting in that department? To me, this is one of the hardest situations to project this year. History obviously says there shouldn't be many targets coming his way yet we know between Cam running less and CMC's skill set they are assuredly going to increase. But by how much? In a vacuum he's a 60+ catch guy but what will he be on this team? This is honestly all I care about.
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I can see a situation where Stewart gains around 850 rushing yards and McCaffrey gets around 700 (more efficiently) on the ground.

I have him projected for 44-370-3 in the passing game and 720-4 on the ground.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I can see a situation where Stewart gains around 850 rushing yards and McCaffrey gets around 700 (more efficiently) on the ground.

I have him projected for 44-370-3 in the passing game and 720-4 on the ground.
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Not bad projections but I think a bit heavy on the TD total. I have him more around 1000 APY w/4-5 TD

But if JStew goes down, sky's the limit. That said, a 3rd round pick would seem to be drafting him at his ceiling.

 
Chaka said:
And?

What does that have to do with McCaffrey?
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I am of the view that CMC is essentially the next Woodhead. Younger and better, sure, but a very similar player with very similar fantasy production.

The previous poster disputed this on the grounds of size, saying Woodhead is 220, I pointed out he is actually 204, almost exactly the same as Woodhead.

 
Miro Z said:
I am of the view that CMC is essentially the next Woodhead. Younger and better, sure, but a very similar player with very similar fantasy production.

The previous poster disputed this on the grounds of size, saying Woodhead is 220, I pointed out he is actually 204, almost exactly the same as Woodhead.
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I understand why you made a comp with Woodhead based on height/weight, but is that really the only reason? McCaffrey also has similar height/weight as guys like Tiki Barber and Jamaal Charles, both speedy, shifty backs with great hands.  

You could go back to earlier eras and find guys like Thurman Thomas, Gale Sayers, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders who have similar height/weight but, I get it, different eras.

Still seems like an odd metric to base such a confident prediction. What about combine numbers or metrics you cannot objectively measure like vision, balance, proprioception...etc.? It just seems like a very limited analysis that reflects personal bias more than anything.

:2cents:

 
Chaka said:
I understand why you made a comp with Woodhead based on height/weight, but is that really the only reason? McCaffrey also has similar height/weight as guys like Tiki Barber and Jamaal Charles, both speedy, shifty backs with great hands.  

You could go back to earlier eras and find guys like Thurman Thomas, Gale Sayers, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders who have similar height/weight but, I get it, different eras.

Still seems like an odd metric to base such a confident prediction. What about combine numbers or metrics you cannot objectively measure like vision, balance, proprioception...etc.? It just seems like a very limited analysis that reflects personal bias more than anything.

:2cents:
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The height/weight point was actually made by another poster, I was just correcting them.

If you go to p32 of this thread you'll see that my CMC/Woodhead argument is really based on comparison of role and therefore comparison of value.

Both will play complementary (ie change of pace/3rd down) roles to a lead back and will, in my humble opinion, end the year with similar production. Woodhead however is by far the better value in redraft because you can get him much later.

 
Miro Z said:
The height/weight point was actually made by another poster, I was just correcting them.

If you go to p32 of this thread you'll see that my CMC/Woodhead argument is really based on comparison of role and therefore comparison of value.

Both will play complementary (ie change of pace/3rd down) roles to a lead back and will, in my humble opinion, end the year with similar production. Woodhead however is by far the better value in redraft because you can get him much later.
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Sorry for confusing you with someone else.

I don't see how anyone can watch what is happening in Carolina with McCaffrey and conclude that he will have in any way a similar role to Woodhead.  Woodhead doesn't run, never has.  His career high is in rushing attempts per game was last season with 9.5, but that was a two game sample. I am willing to bet had he not gotten injured he would have come much closer to his career 5.4 attempts/game, maybe the 6.4 he averaged the last four seasons in San Diego.  Every indication is that McCaffrey will be getting more than 6.4 carries/game this year.  Not 20 or anything crazy like that but 10-15 seems like a reasonable range.

Maybe they are going to do different things in Baltimore this year but last year they were 30th in rushing attempts and 1st in passing attempts. It's a mixed bag with Mornhinweg but I am doubtful they will become a ground and pound team with that line and lack of talent at RB.

At any rate the Woodhead comp just doesn't pass the smell test for me.

 
Keep doubting CMC's talent, guys. I'm literally cracking up over the Woodhead comps. Have any of you even seen CMC play?  Also, what kind of crack are you all smoking? The 8th overall pick is going to get double digit carries along with 5+ receptions. 

 
Chaka said:
Sorry for confusing you with someone else.

I don't see how anyone can watch what is happening in Carolina with McCaffrey and conclude that he will have in any way a similar role to Woodhead.  Woodhead doesn't run, never has.  His career high is in rushing attempts per game was last season with 9.5, but that was a two game sample. I am willing to bet had he not gotten injured he would have come much closer to his career 5.4 attempts/game, maybe the 6.4 he averaged the last four seasons in San Diego.  Every indication is that McCaffrey will be getting more than 6.4 carries/game this year.  Not 20 or anything crazy like that but 10-15 seems like a reasonable range.

Maybe they are going to do different things in Baltimore this year but last year they were 30th in rushing attempts and 1st in passing attempts. It's a mixed bag with Mornhinweg but I am doubtful they will become a ground and pound team with that line and lack of talent at RB.

At any rate the Woodhead comp just doesn't pass the smell test for me.
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Well... remember what the coaches are saying:

The Panthers' website expects Jonathan Stewart to "see the bulk of the carries" despite the addition of Christian McCaffrey.

Per team writer Max Henson, "everyone from head coach Ron Rivera to running backs coach Jim Skipper has insisted that Stewart's role will not change.
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If Stewart is getting the bulk of the carries and Cam rushes a few times too, I don't think that leaves 15 carries a game for CMC.

 
Woodhead is not in Mccaffrey's stratosphere on several levels.  The only similarity is that they'll both play 3rd downs...which is a terrible reasons for a comparison given the number of 3rd down backs in the league.  Why choose Woodhead when there are several better comps? 

I'd choose Reggie Bush or even Percy Harvin.

 
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Chaka said:
Sorry for confusing you with someone else.

I don't see how anyone can watch what is happening in Carolina with McCaffrey and conclude that he will have in any way a similar role to Woodhead.  Woodhead doesn't run, never has.  His career high is in rushing attempts per game was last season with 9.5, but that was a two game sample. I am willing to bet had he not gotten injured he would have come much closer to his career 5.4 attempts/game, maybe the 6.4 he averaged the last four seasons in San Diego.  Every indication is that McCaffrey will be getting more than 6.4 carries/game this year.  Not 20 or anything crazy like that but 10-15 seems like a reasonable range.

Maybe they are going to do different things in Baltimore this year but last year they were 30th in rushing attempts and 1st in passing attempts. It's a mixed bag with Mornhinweg but I am doubtful they will become a ground and pound team with that line and lack of talent at RB.

At any rate the Woodhead comp just doesn't pass the smell test for me.
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Fair observation. I think you both make good points about CMC size comparison, but to be fair, I'd say Woodhead is a better comparison for the situation he's in. 

Woodhead has rarely been used in a feature back role, so the touches projected seem fair at ~10-16 (rushes+receptions). Bruiser JStew will have a significant short yardage role and Cam vultures TDs more than any QB though. 

So I have a hard time making the JCharles/Tiki Barber/LeSean McCoy comparisons, as they were utilized as feature backs, and I don't think McCaffery will be. In the event of a JStew injury, the sky is the limit for this kid. Talent-wise I think it's a good comp. Opportunity maybe notsomuch.

In that vid I saw him equally able to break to the outside, small & shifty behind his blocker to gain 8+ yards, and on short carries he's got a knack for falling forward. It all looks the same as what we saw from him in college. 

But without injury to JStew his upside may be a bit limited this year. I would love him as a RB3/Flex player in the 4th/5th rounder. But a 3.07 ADP with a high of 2.01 seems steep. Other players at that spot include Dalvin Cook, Pryor, Cooks, Baldwin, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill.  I'd rather grab one of those WRs and get a Spencer Ware in the 4th round at RB. 

 
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Yeah I am seeing a lot more Brian Westbrook than I am Danny Woodhead, or Brian Mitchell - too bad that guy played when it was bellcow or nothing, he'd do major damage in today's NFL.

 
Hankmoody said:
Yeah I am seeing a lot more Brian Westbrook than I am Danny Woodhead, or Brian Mitchell - too bad that guy played when it was bellcow or nothing, he'd do major damage in today's NFL.
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Agree - it's too bad he won't get Westbrook type touches.

But that's actually a really good comp situation-wise since McNabb vultured some of Westbrook's TDs in Philly.  His best two seasons he had 14 & 12 total TDs, with the most rushing TDs at 9 & 7 (3X) respectively. He averaged 5 Receiving TDs over the 6 years he was really good, which is where CMC will have to excel to be 2nd-3rd round valuable.

McNabb was more a passer first though and Cam seems to run more in GL situations. I'd have to look at a lot of data to be super confident that's the case, but from what I recall Cam is more of a vulture. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Agree - it's too bad he won't get Westbrook type touches.

But that's actually a really good comp situation-wise since McNabb vultured some of Westbrook's TDs in Philly.  His best two seasons he had 14 & 12 total TDs, with the most rushing TDs at 9 & 7 (3X) respectively. He averaged 5 Receiving TDs over the 6 years he was really good, which is where CMC will have to excel to be 2nd-3rd round valuable.

McNabb was more a passer first though and Cam seems to run more in GL situations. I'd have to look at a lot of data to be super confident that's the case, but from what I recall Cam is more of a vulture. 
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Well my point was more about a comparison than usage, but Brian Westbrook's average rushes/rec/touches per game:

2004    13.6    5.6    19.2
2005    13.0    5.1    18.1
2006    16.0    5.1    21.1
2007    18.5    6.0    24.5
2008    16.6    3.9    20.5

That's not a huge stretch at all.

 
Hankmoody said:
Well my point was more about a comparison than usage, but Brian Westbrook's average rushes/rec/touches per game:

2004    13.6    5.6    19.2
2005    13.0    5.1    18.1
2006    16.0    5.1    21.1
2007    18.5    6.0    24.5
2008    16.6    3.9    20.5

That's not a huge stretch at all.
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Westbrook was a very tough runner for his size. McCaffery is strictly a make you miss guy and goes down very easy. If you want to own him wait until the end of the year, he'll be much cheaper.

 
Hankmoody said:
Well my point was more about a comparison than usage, but Brian Westbrook's average rushes/rec/touches per game:

2004    13.6    5.6    19.2
2005    13.0    5.1    18.1
2006    16.0    5.1    21.1
2007    18.5    6.0    24.5
2008    16.6    3.9    20.5

That's not a huge stretch at all.
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No, but IMO it all depends on JStew's usage. Westbrook didn't have the competition for carries. 2004 & 2005 numbers seem more likely than 2006-2008

Worth noting that 2004-2005 were abbreviated seasons, but the averages play ok. 

I'd project MCM to get 6-9 carries, with 4-7 receptions. 10-16 touches a game. With limited RZ/GL touches being a strong caveat. If he doesn't score from 20+ out, or in the air in the RZ on 3rd down, he's unlikely to.  And with Benjamin looking refocused & other big RZ targets, I'm not sure how much he'll get there either, but good coaching will find a way to use his talent. 

 
voiceofunreason said:
Westbrook was a very tough runner for his size. McCaffery is strictly a make you miss guy and goes down very easy. If you want to own him wait until the end of the year, he'll be much cheaper.
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I'm not so sure that's accurate - it looked to me like MCM was finishing runs on his own terms - choosing where to go down and getting an extra 1-2 yards out of nothing. He appeared to seek contact at the end of his runs. That's very similar to Westy. 

I'll have to see more of him in real game situations (NFL-level)  but I'm not ready to make this judgement on him yet. 

 
Miro Z said:
Well... remember what the coaches are saying:

If Stewart is getting the bulk of the carries and Cam rushes a few times too, I don't think that leaves 15 carries a game for CMC.
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Stewart's career high in carries is 242, he had 218 last season.  Panthers had 383 non-QB rushing attempts last year and he hasn't played more than 13 games since 2011 when he only had 142 carries in 16 games (6 starts).

So a reasonable low end scenario, if everything breaks right for Stewart, starts with about 140 carries to distribute among non-Jon Stewart RBs. I guess it depends on how many carries we feel Whittaker and Artis-Payne will steal from McCaffrey (Tolbert is gone with his 35 carries).

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I'm not so sure that's accurate - it looked to me like MCM was finishing runs on his own terms - choosing where to go down and getting an extra 1-2 yards out of nothing. He appeared to seek contact at the end of his runs. That's very similar to Westy. 

I'll have to see more of him in real game situations (NFL-level)  but I'm not ready to make this judgement on him yet. 
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Go back and count the times he was barely hand tackled and went down. Nfl backs don't do that. I believe there was three times in those few carries.

 
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