And if he continues to improve one day he may even be as good as his doppelganger Danny Woodhead.
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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
I mean the safety had 35 yards to close a 2 yard or less gap and only touched him at the goal line because he dove in desperation. Doesn’t seem slow to me.
I suggest you look at my argument earlier in the thread where I demonstrate how CMC's numbers are uncannily Woodhead-esque. It is the perfect comparison for him and not even an unflattering one.
treat88
Footballguy
I think the Woodhead comp is a damn fine compliment for a rookie back.
I do think Cmac, and I think this is an obvious take, has significantly greater upside as a between the tackles runner as he spends some time in an NFL strength program.
So while Woodhead is a nice comp now, its a low end temporary comp IMO.
I do think Cmac, and I think this is an obvious take, has significantly greater upside as a between the tackles runner as he spends some time in an NFL strength program.
So while Woodhead is a nice comp now, its a low end temporary comp IMO.
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CMC 2017:
435 yards rushing and 2 TDs, 80 receptions for 651 yards and 5 TDs
Danny Woodhead 2015:
336 yards rushing and 3 TDs, 80 receptions for 755 yards and 6 TDs.
It's uncanny.
Exactly what the guy above me said. You’re comparing Woodhead’s best season ever at the age of 28 to CMC’s rookie season at the age of 21. The unflattering part is your suggestion that he needs to improve to get to Woodhead’s level when CMC did that as a rookie and 7 years younger.
Oh his age 30 season. 6 additional years of experience and 9 years older! Yup, definitely the same thing!
As I also argue earlier in the thread, CMC's rookie year is likely to be a ceiling rather than a floor for the future, he was the beneficiary of a number of fortuitous circumstances. He may well be a better player going forward but he is unlikely to repeat those numbers.
The 20 year old just produced a season which is his ceiling? A season which by all accounts wasn’t that exceptional? That’s a remarkably insane stance, but ok.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
You mean free safety, second round pick, 21 year old Marcus Williams who had 57 tackles, 16 assists, 4 picks and 10 passes defensed was just barely not quite fast enough to catch McCaffrey?
That is shocking.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think saying it's remarkably insande is remarkably insane. A RB having his best fantasy season as a rookie is actually fairly common. If we start back 5 years ago (since we can't really determine if a guy drafted 2-3 years ago has had his best season yet) and look at the 10 year span starting then, 33% (9 out of 27) rookie RBs drafted in the 1st round had their best fantasy season as a rookie.
So 33% is a fairly large number to start with for something we're claiming is "remarkably insane", and that's before we start looking at McCaffrey's circumstances.
He smashed the record for routes run by a RB in NFL history, which seems very unlikely to be repeated even before we consider the change in offensive coordinators to the guy that once had Darren Sproles at his disposal and used him as nothing more than a punt returner. Efficiency that doesn't keep up with the Theo Riddick's or Duke Johnson's of the world again dictates that his new coordinator likely won't be looking to force the ball into him the same way the old one did. And then of course the drop in Carolina's passing attack into the bottom 5 of the league while featuring McCaffrey isn't exactly going to convince ole' conventional Norv to try and copy cat what the prior OC was doing to get Carolina into position to be the 28th best passing attack in the league. Not to mention the return of Olsen, the addition of a 1st round WR, etc.
It's certainly possible (maybe even likely) that McCaffrey will get better as a player as he hangs around the league longer. But I think it is very very possible, maybe even likely, that we've seen his best fantasy season already. Outlier volume rewarded with 'meh' efficiency, a semi-flukey TD rate, and big changes in both coaching and player personnel from what he had when he got that outlier volume are all not subtle indications of some regression.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not that I want to get into the speed thing because I don't really care about it, but I'm wondering why tackles or INTs are relevant for how fast a guy is.
Marcus Williams ran the 37th fastest 40 time of his class out of 50 guys tested, so it's not like him having 16 tackle assists means he is particularly fast.
Chaka
Footballguy
Just pointing out he wasn't some scrub LB, like the guy CmC juked out of his jock to get so wide open.
Great analysis, though I’m not sure how relevant it is to say that 9/27 rookies drafted in the first round had their best season as a rookie. What was the bar those 9 set as rookies? Was it 1100 yards and 7 TDs as McCaffrey’s was? Significantly more? Significantly less? I’d venture to guess it’s a combination of rookies that came out guns blazing with monster rookie years (not McCaffrey) or someone like Trent Richardson, who busted himself out of the league.
With McCaffrey’s work ethic and pedigree, I’m of the belief that it’s safe to say he won’t fall in the latter camp. And being his rookie season wasn’t all that impressive statistically, you must believe he won’t improve and/or won’t be given the same number of opportunities he had as a rookie to be of the belief that the season he just had was his “ceiling.”
I’ll stick by my initial reaction that’s it’s insane to believe that’s his ceiling. Guess we’ll see how that plays out.
Seems kind of silly to blame the drop in passing yards per game on McCaffrey in a season that saw Carolina lose Olsen for most of the year and trade Benjamin halfway through the year. And that saw them throw the 5th fewest passes in the league compared to the the 11th fewest the year before. Y/A across the two years is 18 vs 22 a drop that can surely be explained by losing those 2 guys. I very much doubt the Carolina coaches will hold that against CMC or think that he isn’t a very talented receiver out of the backfield.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Since you like to look at circumstances, have you looked at the past 6 years of NFL drafts for RBs? You look at a period from 5-15 years ago when there were 27 RBs picked in the 1st round, but in the past 6 years there have been only 8 1st round RBs. The NFL has become much more selective in burning 1st rounders on RBs, and consequently the 1st rounders taken have been RBs with a much higher success rate. It’s impossible looking at those drafts to not notice the difference, yet you just blow right by that.
There’s also such an emphasis on his receiving numbers from last year, but when someone points out that when his rushing workload increased by almost 40% over the back half of the season his ypc jumped up to 4.7 all we get hear are crickets. How many RBs with meaningful carries had that kind of rushing production in the second half?
Then you look at the effort he’s put in over the offseason and the muscle he’s added, and then extend that to his pedigree and the type of player (and more specifically the mentality) his Dad had as a player and what he was raised with and learned from throughout his life, yet that also is roundly ignored because it’s inconvenient to his detractors. I’m guessing he’s way ahead of guys like Trent Richardson and the others you’re speaking to when you put forth that you consider it likely that his rookie year will be the best of his career.
Maybe it will end up that way, but when you look at the whole picture rather than the selective few items that fit your conclusion, I find your conclusions to be much more unlikely than not. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.
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Tau837
Footballguy
You should try to make your points without misrepresenting the facts.
San Diego drafted Sproles in 2005. Let's look at his seasons in San Diego:
- 2005: Sproles had 8 rushing attempts and 4 targets. Not surprising given the Chargers had Tomlinson, Turner, and Lorenzo Neal.
- 2006: Sproles missed the season due to injury. Just as well, since Tomlinson had the best season of his career.
- 2007: Sproles had 37 rushing attempts and 12 targets. The Chargers still had Tomlinson, Turner, and Neal. Tomlinson was still in his prime and had 60/475/3 on 86 targets in addition to 315/1474/15 rushing.
- 2008: Sproles had 61 rushing attempts and 34 targets. The Chargers still had Tomlinson, but Turner and Neal were gone, and they added Tolbert and Hester. Tomlinson had 52/426/1 on 77 targets in addition to 292/1110/11 rushing.
- 2009: Sproles had 93 rushing attempts and 57 targets, and he had 840 YFS and 7 TDs. Tomlinson fell off the cliff in this season, but still dominated RB opportunities with 223 rushing attempts and 30 targets. The Chargers still had Tolbert and Hester also.
- 2010: Sproles had 50 rushing attempts and 75 targets, and he had 787 YFS and 2 TDs. Tomlinson was gone, replaced by Mathews, and Tolbert
In 2009-2010 combined, with no dominant feature RB on the team, Sproles was #6 in RB targets (132), #4 in RB receptions (104), #2 in RB receiving yards (1017), and #1 in RB receiving TDs (6). This despite the fact that the Chargers were #17 in the NFL in pass attempts (1063).
He did have 96 punt returns and 195 kick returns, because he was good at those things. But your comment here was pretty much completely off base.
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Tau837
Footballguy
It is pretty clear that @FreeBaGeL made up his mind about McCaffrey a long time ago, and he is just grasping for stuff that fits his predisposed opinion.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fair. I admittedly mis-remembered Sproles' tenure there and didn't double check.
None the less, a high of 75 targets and a moderate number of routes run for a RB that, quite frankly, was a much better receiver than CMC was last year is not exactly a compelling argument for CMC repeating 120 targets and running the most routes for a RB in NFL history again.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Does this matter though? Whether they peppered CMC with all those targets and routes because they wanted to or because they lost Benjamin/Olsen so they had to, either way it seems unlikely to be repeated.
If they wanted to, well, it didn't exactly pay dividends, and now the guy that wanted to is gone. If they had to, well now they've brought in a 1st round WR and gotten Olsen back so they don't have to anymore.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not sure I get the theory here. Do you guys think CMC killed my dog or something? I've got nothing against him. Seems like a great guy. My only intent when discussing and researching fantasy football players is to improve my fantasy football teams and share what I find along the way. CMC is not my mortal enemy.
It is pretty clear that @FreeBaGeL made up his mind about McCaffrey a long time ago, and he is just grasping for stuff that fits his predisposed opinion.
However when someone tells me that saying a guy who just had a complete outlier amount of usage for a receiving back and now has a half dozen reasons for that usage to decrease on top of the natural regression that should already be built in is just "being selective", but says that "he had a good dad" is an important part of the whole picture, then I start to think that maybe I'm talking to someone that does have some skin in the game. Like fantasy football ownership that they can't detach themselves from, for instance.
I hope I'm wrong about CMC. He seems like a good kid and I'd much rather him succeed than a bevy of other guys in the NFL that aren't exactly of the best character. But he has a lot going against him relative to his value. Usage that seems very like to decline. A role that has never produced long term fantasy success for any player that wasn't playing for Sean Payton.
I think his best chance of being a long-term fantasy asset are if he does develop into a good inside runner a la Reggie Bush. And that's certainly possible (Bronco Billy outlined some reasons for optimism there). But I'm not betting 2nd round startup value on it and I think the likelihood that he runs around catching 80-100 passes every year for the next 7 years is a whole heck of a lot lower than people who own him seem to think.
Sure, then the conversation turns into a likely increase in efficiency as he draws less defensive attention. Which in turn could result in maintaining the same number of targets as he does more with them. A lot remains to be seen. What I’m certain about is that he isn’t going to be looked at unfavorably in the passing game by any of the Carolina coaches.
Tau837
Footballguy
Well, I didn't make that argument. I was countering your post that misrepresented the facts.
1. On your first bolded statement here, I think you are failing to account for other important facts during Sproles' time with Norv. Context matters. During Sproles' time in San Diego Norv had:
- A number of very talented RBs: Tomlinson, Turner, Mathews, Tolbert, and Neal. Sure, Carolina has CJ Anderson now. I don't see Anderson at this point in this career as being comparable to that group.
- Arguably the best receiving TE of all time (Gates) in his prime. Olsen is good, but not close to prime Gates.
- A better WR1 (Jackson) and arguably a better WR2 (Floyd) than Carolina has.
The whole comparison is apples and oranges and IMO has zero predictive value when applied to the Carolina situation.
2. On your second bolded claim, IMO you are being premature in drawing that conclusion.
Consider the QB play:
- In his one season to date, McCaffrey had Newton as his QB... who is known for being inaccurate, particularly on short and intermediate passes.
- Ignoring the 2 seasons Sproles missed to injury, he has played 11 seasons. Here were his QBs:
2005, 2011-2013: Brees
- 2007-2010: Rivers
- 2014: Foles (8 games), Sanchez (8 games) - unsurprisingly this was his worst receiving season since 2007
- 2015: Bradford - similar to 2014
- 2016 Wentz (rookie) - some improvement over 2015x
[*]Sproles had a huge advantage at QB.
Consider the coaching:
- In his one season to date, McCaffrey had Rivera as his HC and Shula as his OC.
- In the same 11 years mentioned above, Sproles had Marty Schottenheimer (1 year), Norv (4 years), Payton (3 years), Kelly (2 years), and Pederson (1 year).
- Shall we compare the offensive creativity between these two situations? Again, Sproles had a huge advantage.
- In his one season to date, McCaffrey's team was #27 in the NFL with 501 passing attempts.
- From 2009 on, Sproles teams averaged 612 passing attempts, and in his last 6 healthy seasons in NO and PHI, all of his teams were in the top 6 in passing attempts.
- Again, Sproles had a huge advantage.
- McCaffrey was 21 in his first NFL season.
- As for Sproles:
He didn't reach as many as 50 touches on offense until his age 25 season.
- He didn't break 100 touches on offense until his age 26 season.
- He never once had as many touches as McCaffrey did as a rookie, so there is no age comparison for that.
- Sproles has had 2 seasons in his career in which his receiving performance was better than McCaffrey's rookie season - his age 28 and 29 seasons. Both were with Brees and Payton in an offense averaging 667 pass attempts per season, which was #2 in the NFL both seasons.
[*]Sproles had much more NFL experience and physical and mental maturity by the time he was able to succeed as a receiver in the NFL. This is another apples and oranges comparison.
[*]Bottom line, Sproles was drafted in 2005 and wasn't able to prove that he was a good receiver until his 4th season. Sure, it's fair to say Sproles today is a better receiver than McCaffrey was last season, but that is short-changing McCaffrey by assuming his rookie season was his ceiling as a receiver. (Note: I am talking about level of play as a receiver here, not fantasy performance.)
Really, I don't think Sproles really helps your narrative much, and it would be better for your narrative if you just dropped the whole Norv-Sproles connection part of it.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Yeah, see this post is much more reasonable than you saying he likely reached his ceiling as a rookie. Though even here you can't resist adding a strawman argument (bolded) that no one in this thread has claimed.
I agree there are reasons that his usage will change, including a likely reduction in targets, although he should remain one of the highest targeted RBs in the NFL. I agree that he needs to improve as a runner, particularly as an inside runner, to establish sustained high fantasy value.
But I think there are reasons to expect him to do just that, and you obviously do not agree. That's fine, reasonable people can disagree reasonably.
Good to know he didn't kill your dog and isn't your mortal enemy.
ProFootballTalk✔@ProFootballTalk
Ron Rivera: I don't see why Christian McCaffrey can't run a lot more http://bit.ly/2Hm6rqX
9:02 AM - Jun 5, 2018
Ron Rivera: I don't see why Christian McCaffrey can't run a lot more http://bit.ly/2Hm6rqX
9:02 AM - Jun 5, 2018
CalBear
Footballguy
Can we make the point that Norv Turner sucks?
His last three years in Minneapolis as OC, the Vikings offense ranked 27, 29, and 28 in total yardage. In 2017, after he left, they were #11.
In 2013 he was in Cleveland where they were #18.
Once he lost Tomlinson in San Diego he was done. His last year there (2012) they finished #31 in offense. (In 2013 under McCoy they were #5).
So, Turner hasn't led an offense to a finish in the top half of the league since 2011. Four of his last five stints as OC or HC they were 27th or worse. He also hasn't managed to make the playoffs since 2009, and two of the teams he left made the playoffs the year after he left. (And the other one was Cleveland.)
I don't get how this guy keeps getting jobs.
His last three years in Minneapolis as OC, the Vikings offense ranked 27, 29, and 28 in total yardage. In 2017, after he left, they were #11.
In 2013 he was in Cleveland where they were #18.
Once he lost Tomlinson in San Diego he was done. His last year there (2012) they finished #31 in offense. (In 2013 under McCoy they were #5).
So, Turner hasn't led an offense to a finish in the top half of the league since 2011. Four of his last five stints as OC or HC they were 27th or worse. He also hasn't managed to make the playoffs since 2009, and two of the teams he left made the playoffs the year after he left. (And the other one was Cleveland.)
I don't get how this guy keeps getting jobs.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I've heard of age catching up to running backs but never an OC. Perhaps it's just circumstances.
Chaka
Footballguy
If the Panthers didn't hire him he may not even have gotten an offer to coach for the XFL and they hired Mike Martz!??
CalBear
Footballguy
Was Norv Turner ever a good coach? As a head coach he's had three 10+ win seasons in 15 years, and he has a losing record overall. He's won four playoff games in those 15 years, and lost in the first round at home with the best team he's had (the 2009 Chargers, who were 13-3 with Rivers, Gates, and Tomlinson, and lost to the 9-7 Jets, led by Mark Sanchez, Thomas Jones, and Jerricho Cotchery.)
He had three seasons of success as OC with the 1991-1993 Cowboys, but it's not at all clear how much he contributed to that. He was starting with a 25-year-old Troy Aikman and a 22-year-old Emmitt Smith, and a team that Jimmy Johnson had already brought from 1-15 to 7-9 the year before.
Since then it's been pretty much all mediocre to crappy.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You don't think that a coach's philosophy can become antiquated?
What about Jeff Fisher or John Fox? Those guys had plenty of success at one point but refused to "update" their ways of thinking and became dinosaurs.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Every time he's had a good team he does pretty well. What did the Chargers do after he left?
(The Patriots also lost to those Jets)
(The Patriots also lost to those Jets)
Chaka
Footballguy
Won the same number of playoff games as they did when he was there.
To be fair when Norv had a reasonably healthy, if old, Adrian Peterson he got his last great season out of him, and McKinnon also ran very well in Norv's offense. But I agree that there is a need for healthy skepticism about what Norv can do with Cam and a back like McCaffrey. I'm no scout and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night (but I did stay at one three weeks ago in Paso Robles and the wife and I were shocked at how nice it was. Newly renovated, free wine at 5:00pm every day, dog friendly and a ridiculously low price. Highly recommend!
) but in my view CJ Anderson just looks like more of a Norval RB to me.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Fox and Gase almost won a SB with Manning. So...
Sometimes you get offensive coaches who can make straw into gold: Belicheck, Payton, Reid. But the rest of the league is just mediocre. They do well when they have good players, not so much when they don't. Josh McDaniels is a genius with the Patriots, but he did about as well Fisher did in St Louis.
Long story short: Norv isn't any better or worse than Mike Shula.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
I am trying to keep a positive attitude about this but man it is hard. Norv and his "offense" has been around a long long time
CalBear
Footballguy
They went from 7-9 with the #31 ranked offense, to 9-7 with the #5 ranked offense. If you're actually asking.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
tombonneau
Footballguy
I'm reading a book a Napolean right now and had no idea he was so young when he rose to power. Basically his first big campaign he was like 24-26 and was a total student of military history but with a young, fresh innovative mind. So he was running circles around all these entrenched septuagenarian Austro-Hungarian generals who were stuck in the old way of doing things and never adapted.
The parallels to NFL coaching ranks are striking.
Chaka
Footballguy
Noah Davis
Footballguy
CMC - I put him at 768 rushing yards on 200 attempts with 3 TDS, 550 receiving yards on 65 receptions with 5 TDs this year. I'm optimistic. Roughly 18 total touches per game
tombonneau
Footballguy
Doubt away.
Here is first Austrian general I looked up from the Italian campaign:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dagobert_Sigmund_von_Wurmser?wprov=sfti1
He was 72.
