I just have never been one to automatically assume the RB1 from a prior year is automatically accepted as the top RB the following year
I don’t think anyone does this.
Maybe nobody considers it some guarantee. But I think a lot of people think that way in general. Just like the reigning champion team in most sports is usually the futures favorite for the following championship, and usually ranked #1 in polls, in the case of college sports (barring major player losses).
The industry has to have a starting point, so I knew years ago how they react. (you
HAVE to have someone at RB#1 in projections right?) I've been a professional poker player for 25 years, and sports bettors are always lingering around. I'm assuming JT is the favorite to lead the league in yardage....but I haven't checked/doesn't really matter to me. Sports and futures, and all betting are just kind of a way of life in the poker arena, for many at least.
I think JT's a "safe pick", but I think there may be higher upside in a few other spots. (cue the people who will say "I want a safe pick with my early picks) And a big reason of why I'll avoid him is the coaching yapping about cutting back his workload/conserving him for the playoffs.
Something else most seem to be overlooking, Matt Ryan has always been known to lock in to 1-2 wideouts. I realize part of that has been a poor defense/having to throw, but we don't know exactly how much running they are going to do all things considered. (I'm not aware how the Colts defense is currently)
The beauty of these discussions, is suppose someone like
DERRICK HENRY blows up again and finishes #1 overall. Would anyone here be truly surprised? Its certainly a good possibility, or at least as good as any one of about 5-7 that aren't currently ranked #1 (J Taylor).
Then this place would be full of yahoos saying "Yeah but I wasn't drafting that bum at #1, too many people had Taylor over him etc etc etc......you were lucky that happened, the (experts) didn't agree"
Well, I think anyone who drafts a big ticket RB and he actually finishes up as #1 RB, theres a bit of luck involved in that, scheme, health, opportunity, workload , the list goes on.
But there's a bit of luck involved in everything in life, sports included but a lot of the general public doesn't really want to admit it.