What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (3 Viewers)

I just have never been one to automatically assume the RB1 from a prior year is automatically accepted as the top RB the following year
I don’t think anyone does this.
Maybe nobody considers it some guarantee. But I think a lot of people think that way in general. Just like the reigning champion team in most sports is usually the futures favorite for the following championship, and usually ranked #1 in polls, in the case of college sports (barring major player losses).
 
I just have never been one to automatically assume the RB1 from a prior year is automatically accepted as the top RB the following year
I don’t think anyone does this.
Maybe nobody considers it some guarantee. But I think a lot of people think that way in general. Just like the reigning champion team in most sports is usually the futures favorite for the following championship, and usually ranked #1 in polls, in the case of college sports (barring major player losses).

The industry has to have a starting point, so I knew years ago how they react. (you HAVE to have someone at RB#1 in projections right?) I've been a professional poker player for 25 years, and sports bettors are always lingering around. I'm assuming JT is the favorite to lead the league in yardage....but I haven't checked/doesn't really matter to me. Sports and futures, and all betting are just kind of a way of life in the poker arena, for many at least.
I think JT's a "safe pick", but I think there may be higher upside in a few other spots. (cue the people who will say "I want a safe pick with my early picks) And a big reason of why I'll avoid him is the coaching yapping about cutting back his workload/conserving him for the playoffs.
Something else most seem to be overlooking, Matt Ryan has always been known to lock in to 1-2 wideouts. I realize part of that has been a poor defense/having to throw, but we don't know exactly how much running they are going to do all things considered. (I'm not aware how the Colts defense is currently)

The beauty of these discussions, is suppose someone like DERRICK HENRY blows up again and finishes #1 overall. Would anyone here be truly surprised? Its certainly a good possibility, or at least as good as any one of about 5-7 that aren't currently ranked #1 (J Taylor).
Then this place would be full of yahoos saying "Yeah but I wasn't drafting that bum at #1, too many people had Taylor over him etc etc etc......you were lucky that happened, the (experts) didn't agree"
Well, I think anyone who drafts a big ticket RB and he actually finishes up as #1 RB, theres a bit of luck involved in that, scheme, health, opportunity, workload , the list goes on.
But there's a bit of luck involved in everything in life, sports included but a lot of the general public doesn't really want to admit it.
 
I just have never been one to automatically assume the RB1 from a prior year is automatically accepted as the top RB the following year
I don’t think anyone does this.
Maybe nobody considers it some guarantee. But I think a lot of people think that way in general. Just like the reigning champion team in most sports is usually the futures favorite for the following championship, and usually ranked #1 in polls, in the case of college sports (barring major player losses).

The industry has to have a starting point, so I knew years ago how they react. (you HAVE to have someone at RB#1 in projections right?) I've been a professional poker player for 25 years, and sports bettors are always lingering around. I'm assuming JT is the favorite to lead the league in yardage....but I haven't checked/doesn't really matter to me. Sports and futures, and all betting are just kind of a way of life in the poker arena, for many at least.
I think JT's a "safe pick", but I think there may be higher upside in a few other spots. (cue the people who will say "I want a safe pick with my early picks) And a big reason of why I'll avoid him is the coaching yapping about cutting back his workload/conserving him for the playoffs.
Something else most seem to be overlooking, Matt Ryan has always been known to lock in to 1-2 wideouts. I realize part of that has been a poor defense/having to throw, but we don't know exactly how much running they are going to do all things considered. (I'm not aware how the Colts defense is currently)

The beauty of these discussions, is suppose someone like DERRICK HENRY blows up again and finishes #1 overall. Would anyone here be truly surprised? Its certainly a good possibility, or at least as good as any one of about 5-7 that aren't currently ranked #1 (J Taylor).
Then this place would be full of yahoos saying "Yeah but I wasn't drafting that bum at #1, too many people had Taylor over him etc etc etc......you were lucky that happened, the (experts) didn't agree"
Well, I think anyone who drafts a big ticket RB and he actually finishes up as #1 RB, theres a bit of luck involved in that, scheme, health, opportunity, workload , the list goes on.
But there's a bit of luck involved in everything in life, sports included but a lot of the general public doesn't really want to admit it.
Right, and a side note, as I have seen others point out recently, either in this topic or others, a somewhat obvious statistical concept: just because you consider someone #1 does not mean that you are going to be surprised or disappointed if he does not finish #1. Considering someone to have the best shot among the field is not at all the same as considering it more likely than not that the given player will finish #1. Considering the guy #1 means in essence that if you somehow could sample 10,000 random alternate versions of the coming season, that the guy would finish with the best average among the field. Maybe he's only #1 15% of the time, but he has the best expected average.
 
Right, and a side note, as I have seen others point out recently, either in this topic or others, a somewhat obvious statistical concept: just because you consider someone #1 does not mean that you are going to be surprised or disappointed if he does not finish #1.


Right. In fact if I draft someone #1 overall, and he finishes RB8-10, I'm not overly disappointed, even though I was drafting hoping for more. Thats not quite a league tanking performance.

Now Rd 1-2 picks that miss the majority of the season due to injury, now THAT'S DISAPPOINTING.
But I get plenty of that every year anyway. :wall:
 
I was shocked when McCaffrey fell to me at 1.04 yesterday in my 14 team redraft. I went in planning on taking Jefferson or Kupp there but felt like I had to take CMc when it sent Taylor, Ekeler, Henry.

So now both of us are married to this guy in one of our leagues. Who'd you get at 2.11?
 
I was shocked when McCaffrey fell to me at 1.04 yesterday in my 14 team redraft. I went in planning on taking Jefferson or Kupp there but felt like I had to take CMc when it sent Taylor, Ekeler, Henry.

So now both of us are married to this guy in one of our leagues. Who'd you get at 2.11?
Mike Evans and at 3.04 I did something I haven’t done in a long time and took an early QB, Pat Mahomes. I didn’t want to do it but just didn’t love what was there enough. It actually worked out fine as I loaded up on WRs and RBs after that and happy with how the team looks.
 
I was shocked when McCaffrey fell to me at 1.04 yesterday in my 14 team redraft. I went in planning on taking Jefferson or Kupp there but felt like I had to take CMc when it sent Taylor, Ekeler, Henry.

So now both of us are married to this guy in one of our leagues. Who'd you get at 2.11?
Fell to me at 4 in my draft yesterday as well. He was my top player so I was ecstatic to get him.
 
3.04 I did something I haven’t done in a long time and took an early QB, Pat Mahomes
I just threw up a little! :P
It worked out great and I’ll take the advantage at QB. Most years I’m last or second to last to take a QB and sometimes that has hurt me.

Looking back the only regret on who I passed on for Mahomes was Pittman. But I got some nice bargains at WR along the way to make up for “losing out” on a third round WR.
 
Fell to me at 4 in my draft yesterday as well. He was my top player so I was ecstatic to get him.

I've said it elsewhere on the board, but lo and behold I snagged the #1 spot in my big league this year. (If I'm going to play a scratch off ticket looking for a winner, it BETTER BE A BIG ONE.)
I wish I'd chosen a late spot so I could go WR-WR like most years, (slightly different set up, we start 3WRs) but never having #1 in this league made me want "something different than most years".
Regardless, I'll probably get CMC at #1 too.
 
Who’s his handcuff this year?
Sounding like Foreman, from most accounts. That said I had Hubbard in 5/5 leagues last season as a bench stash. He was "fair" at times, but he seemed like a volume play, and didn't lookall that promising when he DID take the field.
That may well have been the crappy team around him though, after CMC went out.
 
Who’s his handcuff this year?
I did not bother taking one for him - and neither Foreman or Hubbard got drafted anyway. I took other RB fliers instead.
Curious as to in which spot you picked CMac?
I had said earlier in this thread he fell to 1.04 and felt I had to take him. I never saw a good opportunity to grab a handcuff because there was always some player I liked better available and had to take a K and D/ST.
 
Who’s his handcuff this year?
I did not bother taking one for him - and neither Foreman or Hubbard got drafted anyway. I took other RB fliers instead.
Curious as to in which spot you picked CMac?
I had said earlier in this thread he fell to 1.04 and felt I had to take him. I never saw a good opportunity to grab a handcuff because there was always some player I liked better available and had to take a K and D/ST.
My apologies.... ran quickly in here as I was heading for the door and only read the last few comments.

I passed on him at 1.02, though in a vacuum, I would have picked him there.
 
I don't know how you can rely on this guy to be an anchor for your fantasy team. Still chasing his production from years past, I'd rather take the risk on a Michael Thomas reclamation projection. People are taking fragile CMC over Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp 2K, Ja'Marr Chase, etc.


Is the upside of CMC really worth the difference of Ja'Marr Chase going for 200 yards and 2 TD in a game? You score 0 points when your guy is on the bench. What's going to happen eventually is that Carolina will limit his touches. The volume that makes him valuable is what destroys him, I think he has a nice safe year but won't warrant his draft position. Stop chasing the past. It's over. It was a great thing, but were all different people and all a little bit older now.
 
I don't know how you can rely on this guy to be an anchor for your fantasy team. Still chasing his production from years past, I'd rather take the risk on a Michael Thomas reclamation projection. People are taking fragile CMC over Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp 2K, Ja'Marr Chase, etc.


Is the upside of CMC really worth the difference of Ja'Marr Chase going for 200 yards and 2 TD in a game? You score 0 points when your guy is on the bench. What's going to happen eventually is that Carolina will limit his touches. The volume that makes him valuable is what destroys him, I think he has a nice safe year but won't warrant his draft position. Stop chasing the past. It's over. It was a great thing, but were all different people and all a little bit older now.
This is pretty much my take. I was burned by CMac two years ago. Last year did nothing to heal the burn wounds. I also foresee his touches being lessened. Taylor went first in our league. In a year of draft "reaches" for me, I chose Justin Jefferson at 1.02.
 
Is the upside of CMC really worth the difference

Yes. In games he played last year he was RB1, RB3, RB2, RB4

Or something like that. It was staggering. He nuked my team last year because he was hurt, but we stunk anyway. Should have been 4-0 with those RB starts.

This year, I would have taken Jefferson and Taylor ahead of him, but he fell, and that's who I picked with no second-guessing, really.
 
I don't know how you can rely on this guy to be an anchor for your fantasy team. Still chasing his production from years past, I'd rather take the risk on a Michael Thomas reclamation projection. People are taking fragile CMC over Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp 2K, Ja'Marr Chase, etc.


Is the upside of CMC really worth the difference of Ja'Marr Chase going for 200 yards and 2 TD in a game? You score 0 points when your guy is on the bench. What's going to happen eventually is that Carolina will limit his touches. The volume that makes him valuable is what destroys him, I think he has a nice safe year but won't warrant his draft position. Stop chasing the past. It's over. It was a great thing, but were all different people and all a little bit older now.
Interesting, in all my leagues when your guy is on the bench we're allowed to start a different guy. Must be a rough league.
 
I’ve mentioned it before, but Foreman was just used 3 more times at the stripe. And he caught a short reception for a score.

Panthers might try to keep CMC healthy by reducing his workload. Just something to file away. I wouldn’t call it a red flag, but it wouldn’t help to see CMC on the sideline in short yardage situations.
 
I don't know how you can rely on this guy to be an anchor for your fantasy team. Still chasing his production from years past, I'd rather take the risk on a Michael Thomas reclamation projection. People are taking fragile CMC over Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp 2K, Ja'Marr Chase, etc.


Is the upside of CMC really worth the difference of Ja'Marr Chase going for 200 yards and 2 TD in a game? You score 0 points when your guy is on the bench. What's going to happen eventually is that Carolina will limit his touches. The volume that makes him valuable is what destroys him, I think he has a nice safe year but won't warrant his draft position. Stop chasing the past. It's over. It was a great thing, but were all different people and all a little bit older now.

He absolutely may strain/sprain/tear something week 1 and end up with a 3rd disappointing season in a row.

2 things to consider:

1. His injuries in 2020 and 2021 were all relatively minor tears/sprains that he fully recovered from, no ACLs or Achilles type injuries. His time missed was also inflated due to the Panthers being garbage both seasons and having no reason to rush him back. It is not unreasonable to expect a higher rate of injuries in 2020-2021 with the COVID protocols that limited players' normal training, rehab, nutrition, and practice. As another poster mentioned something like 7/10 or 15/20 top RBs missed time last year due to injury (see MoP thread from last fall about RB vs QB injuries). With COVID protocols over and normal routines resumed, and the Panthers potentially being a playoff team now that they have a QB and their division is a mess, I find it reasonable to assume a lower chance of CMC getting injured as well as shorter time off if he is injured.

2. You don't have to chase the past (2019) to find success. In 2021 he played in 7 games, finished RB7 in PPG (PPR), if you take out the 2 partial games he got hurt in he finished RB2 PPG (PPR). In 2020 he played in 3 games and finished RB1 PPG (PPR). His usage was limited some in 2021 when he returned, only getting half the carries he got in the early weeks. His receptions per game stayed consistent with his career average though.

I am not sure why I am simping so hard for CMC lately, I swore I would never draft him again after getting burned the last 2 seasons. As this season approaches and looking at the RBs available and their situations, I am finding more reasons to trust him than not. Disclaimer: Taylor, Harris, Cook, Ekeler, Jefferson, Kupp, and Chase are all being kept by other teams in my league so that does impact my ultimate decision of who to spend $$ on. I am also keeping Henry so I am not desperate for an RB1. I am sure some degree of FOMO is affecting my thought process as well.

Regardless of whether he is on one's team or not, hopefully he stays healthy all year so we can see if he is Fantasy RB HoF'er like LT and ADP or if he is just another dude who had a few good seasons and one great one.

* feel free to bump this and laugh at me if/when CMC goes down this season
 

Christian McCaffrey rushed 10 times for 33 yards and a touchdown, adding four receptions for an additional 24 yards in the Panthers' Week 1 loss against the Browns.


A one-yard touchdown helped what would've been a sad start to the season for McCaffrey. He did have a key play that helped get the Panthers back in the game. McCaffrey picked up a Mayfield fumble and raced into Brown's territory. Unfortunately it didn't go on the stat sheet. You'd like to see CMC get more than 14 touches in a game, but the Panthers' offense was out of sync all game. He'll get an easier matchup in Week 2 against the Giants.

- NBCSportsEDGE
 
Yup, handcuffing only makes sense if the backup can produce anything close to the starter.

Jamal Williams and Mattison come to mind as worth it.
Yeah and I think it needs to be one of 2 situations:
A) the “handcuff” is very talented, think Khalil Herbert.
B) the offense will score so much that it will elevate any RB, think Pacheco.

I don’t see either in Carolina.
 

Of Christian McCaffrey, Panthers OC Ben McAdoo said, "We've got to get the ball in his hands."​

This comes days after McCaffrey logged just 14 touches in the Panthers' Week 1 loss to the Browns. McCaffrey found the end zone on a one-yard touchdown to salvage an otherwise underwhelming performance, but he managed just 10 carries for 33 yards in a game the Panthers trailed 17-7 at halftime. A truly elite fantasy asset when healthy, fantasy managers will look for McAdoo to prioritize CMC a bit more in the team's Week 2 matchup against the Giants.
SOURCE: Steve Reed on Twitter
Sep 15, 2022, 12:11 PM ET
 

Of Christian McCaffrey, Panthers OC Ben McAdoo said, "We've got to get the ball in his hands."​

This comes days after McCaffrey logged just 14 touches in the Panthers' Week 1 loss to the Browns. McCaffrey found the end zone on a one-yard touchdown to salvage an otherwise underwhelming performance, but he managed just 10 carries for 33 yards in a game the Panthers trailed 17-7 at halftime. A truly elite fantasy asset when healthy, fantasy managers will look for McAdoo to prioritize CMC a bit more in the team's Week 2 matchup against the Giants.
SOURCE: Steve Reed on Twitter
Sep 15, 2022, 12:11 PM ET
Hilarious when coaches say this … it’s literally their job to do this. “Oh yea, we’ve gotta figure out a way …”

Dudes. You’re the HC. Just do it then, for Christmas sake.
 

Of Christian McCaffrey, Panthers OC Ben McAdoo said, "We've got to get the ball in his hands."​

This comes days after McCaffrey logged just 14 touches in the Panthers' Week 1 loss to the Browns. McCaffrey found the end zone on a one-yard touchdown to salvage an otherwise underwhelming performance, but he managed just 10 carries for 33 yards in a game the Panthers trailed 17-7 at halftime. A truly elite fantasy asset when healthy, fantasy managers will look for McAdoo to prioritize CMC a bit more in the team's Week 2 matchup against the Giants.
SOURCE: Steve Reed on Twitter
Sep 15, 2022, 12:11 PM ET
Hilarious when coaches say this … it’s literally their job to do this. “Oh yea, we’ve gotta figure out a way …”

Dudes. You’re the HC. Just do it then, for Christmas sake.
Easier said than done, man. It's not that simple. If only there were an option in the playbook where you could just literally put the ball in his hands. Like, the QB just hands the ball to the RB ... you could call it like, a "put it in his hand" or a "hand-it" or "handoff" or something of that nature.
 
Dynasty .. I own CMC as well as Hubbard, but after last year tempted just to dump Hubbard and pick up someone else.
I have CMC in dynasty as well and I have never had his backup. If CMC goes down I'm not winning the chip. My main league loves wrs and you have to overpay for quality. I'm going to ride him till the wheels fall off. In 2019 CMC, Lamar and Waller were so good that year I won starting Gallup and Robbie Anderson at wr.
 
should be a great start this week. Giants LBs can't cover.
But are coaches smart enough to use him in the passing gams v running him up the gut over and over agsisnt those LBs?
Are you watching football? giants LBs did a superb job stopping the run last week.they punked Henry. Giants def ranked in the top 15 or 10 in run defense last week. Its their home opener. This CMC dope missed 20 of ladt 30 games. Kid cant play. Maybe hes been on PEDs and that usage is catching up with him causing repeated injuries and soft tissue issues?? Asking for a friend.. the carolina coaching staff sucks. Mayfield sucks. Giants are pumped..they have Barkley ,their Mojo, back.
 
should be a great start this week. Giants LBs can't cover.
But are coaches smart enough to use him in the passing gams v running him up the gut over and over agsisnt those LBs?
Are you watching football? giants LBs did a superb job stopping the run last week.they punked Henry. Giants def ranked in the top 15 or 10 in run defense last week. Its their home opener. This CMC dope missed 20 of ladt 30 games. Kid cant play. Maybe hes been on PEDs and that usage is catching up with him causing repeated injuries and soft tissue issues?? Asking for a friend.. the carolina coaching staff sucks. Mayfield sucks. Giants are pumped..they have Barkley ,their Mojo, back.
You're dumping on CMC but giving Barkley a pass? CMC has had a better career. CMC still put 15 points/PPR in a 'bad' game. How many great seasons has Barkley had? One

Clicking the CMC thead with jive talk.
 
Last edited:
should be a great start this week. Giants LBs can't cover.
But are coaches smart enough to use him in the passing gams v running him up the gut over and over agsisnt those LBs?
Are you watching football? giants LBs did a superb job stopping the run last week.they punked Henry. Giants def ranked in the top 15 or 10 in run defense last week. Its their home opener. This CMC dope missed 20 of ladt 30 games. Kid cant play. Maybe hes been on PEDs and that usage is catching up with him causing repeated injuries and soft tissue issues?? Asking for a friend.. the carolina coaching staff sucks. Mayfield sucks. Giants are pumped..they have Barkley ,their Mojo, back.
OK. Are you just trolling? That was exactly my point - Is the Car. coaching staff smart enough to not run it against those LB and instead give it to CMC in space via the pass?
 
For what it's worth, the Giants got crushed by Dontrell (I almost typed Dalton) Hilliard in the passing game, and he's probably not even 20% the talent CMC is.

I think Barkley and CMC will spend most of Sunday one upping one another. They are my top-2 RBs this week.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top