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This is a bit flawed. Anybody can get hurt so nobody is guaranteed anything. Taking Bijan and Allgeier guarantees you nothing.
I'd agree. he is a must have handcuff if you are a CMC owner.
How is it flawed if you are saying anyone can get hurt? That’s exactly my point.
A lot depends on your roster construction. Sure, if you're thin at RB, handcuffs seem logical. For me, the only backup RBs that are a must have are those with must have talent. While good for a smallish sample size of 84 carries and 15 receptions, I don't think I've seen enough of Gurrendo yet, but that's just me.
I’d take Guerendo straight up vs James but I’d rather pay James price so can’t say I agree. As I said I do not think it’s a lock he keeps the backup job and his cost is way to high for someone who I feel that way about. Would rather just take James at end of the draft.
Because it is meaningless to say "drafting both guarantees you nothing" because nothing anywhere is guaranteed. It's like saying nothing.
I'm sorry you didn't realize Mitchell was broken last year.
Well if I said nothing how would that be flawed?
I’d say even if you aren’t a CMC owner. Maybe even moreso, because he’s relatively cheap with massive upside if things break right.
When did Jordan James look good in the NFL?
Sure but that makes for a boring discussion if we all just hung out here and said nothing.
That's not what he said and if you replaced Jordan James with Jeanty or Hampton I'm sure you'd just agree without saying something like this. That's what he's saying but I think you know this.
I do know that but my point is valid.
We saw Guerendo have a very few good games in an offense that I literally can't recall a RB was not make to look good.
Like I said, I have BOTH Guerendo and James.
Obviously never, but the kid looks to me like Devonta Freeman.
I like the player a lot. I was happy they drafted him. We’ll see what happens. As a fan I’m happy if
McCaffrey will render both moot in 2025
As a 49er fan I hope you’re correct.McCaffrey will render both moot in 2025
I am of the approach that the first round can't win you the league title but it definitely can lose it for you. However as a late 1st or early 2nd pick I don't think I can pass up CMC because of the top overall player upside. It just makes me reach a bit for Guerrendo if I do that.
I think the math says the first round absolutely can win you the league though. I remember feeling the same way, but when you look at the yearly "on roster makes title game" percentages, there's often 1-2 first rounders WAY above the rest (like saquon and chase last year) so over the years I've changed my thinking from what you say to being more strategic.
I mean obviously if you have someone crush and outperform everyone by that much it's catching lightening in a bottle. So while that can happen I believe it is far more likely that picking a 1st round player that gets injured or underperforms will kill you than finding that lightening in a bottle because that doesn't happen every year. Chase/Barkley had a pretty historic performances.
That is a terrible comparison. McCaffrey was hurt last year. So his logic is that he would have a down year. Although ACL is a different injury. The whole comparison is dumb
I don't know if either is really true. Not sure one pick makes or breaks a fantasy team (except maybe in 16+ team leagues) so much as its about the best overall team. Hell, in one of my leagues, the team who took CMC in round 1, ran away with the league despite that pick. Same league, the person who took Ja'Marr Chase in round 1, didn't even make the playoffs.
Well yeah those are anecdotes. Sure there will be teams that blow their shot or overcome a tough one.
So what are the odds on the teams that missed the playoffs with CMC, Tyreek, anybody else drafted in first round that busted?
I imagine they're pretty low.
Fantasypros did an article in January about the most rostered championship players(in leagues that were loaded into Fantasypros)
www.fantasypros.com
As you said upthread the statements are pretty anecdotal in general and craft your approach going into a draft. For me, I want the best combo of safe and upside in the first round as a bust has tended to really hurt me over the years (hence the can't win but can lose statement). My best teams seem to come from hitting on my upside picks in the 7-12 round range that have more room to outperform their value.
Those are winners. I gave the stat for making title game.Fantasypros did an article in January about the most rostered championship players(in leagues that were loaded into Fantasypros)
Fantasy Football League Winners: Most-Rostered Championship Players
Pat Fitzmaurice looks at fantasy football league winners who most maximized managers' chances of winning fantasy football championships.
Since it is behind a paywall, I don't want to give the entire list but the top of this list was Jahmyr Gibbs at 19%. Barkley and 3 others were at 17%.
I went digging a bit because the 34% seemed awful high to me.
Without being overly flippant...yeah I mean everyone wants upside and safe. Those guys are the first 2-3 picks. I take that to mean you're willing to sacrifice more upside in exchange for a perceived higher floor.
Which is *exactly* what I told myself before picking him 1.01 last year.
Why would one season in one league invalidate a data driven hypothesis over a large sample?
I would think since the NFL went to 17 games, most leagues would start playoffs week 15 to avoid this. Still finish before the potentially meaningless week 18 games.
Because it’s now one year later and he still has bilateral Achilles tendonitis.
In a league with 14 teams there is a nice natural schedule where everyone plays each other one time (13 weeks) and then playoffs start week 14.
OK
Instead of doing an all play.....do a position week. By that I mean, 1st v 2nd, 3rd v 4th, etc. It's like a mini playoff week. It works really well. When I have unbalanced schedules I tend to fill in the schedule with these position weeks. Everyone seems to like them.
My fault, I thought your numbers were to win the title as well.Those are winners. I gave the stat for making title game.Fantasypros did an article in January about the most rostered championship players(in leagues that were loaded into Fantasypros)
Fantasy Football League Winners: Most-Rostered Championship Players
Pat Fitzmaurice looks at fantasy football league winners who most maximized managers' chances of winning fantasy football championships.
Since it is behind a paywall, I don't want to give the entire list but the top of this list was Jahmyr Gibbs at 19%. Barkley and 3 others were at 17%.
I went digging a bit because the 34% seemed awful high to me.
If I could find it I'd use a make the playoffs stat. Because at that point it's a lot of luck IMO. You get years where like 10% of Amari Cooper teams made it but 98% of those teams won because he dropped 50-bombs in the two important weeks.
That wouldn't invalidate the current discussion at all though.
Is that really playing not to lose? You are trying to craft a complete team to win. The goal for me is typically to make the playoffs where anything can happen. Taking a higher floor/lower upside player in the first round isn't necessarily playing to not lose. By choosing to take your higher risk shots later in the draft and using your higher picks for floor to try and ensure you make the playoffs is playing to win.
We did this in my 14 team empire keeper league. I checked what FFPC was doing since I was familiar with their schedule format. Felt it would worl well with our league.
I also agree, odds are low. but I have won a league with a first round bust, but I managed to get a couple of late round gems and a couple of elite waiver wire picks to make up for it.
While everything you posted is true, catches tend to be a lot less taxing on the body than just all rushes. I don't have the stats handy but I'd guess 30-40% of his total touches are in the passing game. *Just looked approximately 30% of his career touches are in the passing game.
