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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (6 Viewers)

He's done. The tires have fallen off and it will only get worse. I'm a little surprised you're not getting a bigger discount based on the mileage and last season's debacle.
While I don't think he is done, I was quite surprised at the iron grip our dynasty owner had on CMC. He must be hard to quit. I, for one, refuse to overpay even though he may have a couple more stud RBs left on the tires. ETA: In redraft, I would be a buyer.
 
He's done. The tires have fallen off and it will only get worse. I'm a little surprised you're not getting a bigger discount based on the mileage and last season's debacle.
While I don't think he is done, I was quite surprised at the iron grip our dynasty owner had on CMC. He must be hard to quit. I, for one, refuse to overpay even though he may have a couple more stud RBs left on the tires. ETA: In redraft, I would be a buyer.
I understand why people are hesitant to let go. His great games are magical, and I'm sure he has a few more in the tank but the amount of mileage he's accumulated over his career cannot be ignored. He's elderly in running back years. When he was traded to the 49ers I predicted they'd shorten his career due to overuse, and I stand by that argument. I still wish we could have seen him in a modified RB/slot role with limited but meaningful touches.
 
I actually think CMC vs Barkley is an interesting decision to make in redrafts, at least if you are looking at rolling the dice with a high upside proven older RB. At this point consensus favors Barkley but they are both moving in opposite directions, moving closer to each other.

Two older RB's with the RB1 history and upside.

Barkley just did it and is not coming off an injury which is why consensus is higher on him but his massive workload last year while CMC got a chance to rest his body is a huge deal to me. Injury risk or overuse risk is the dilemma for me. I've long thought, and have said here a few times, CMC's two injury shortened seasons in Carolina were aides to his later career. The body can only take so much punishment, at least if you are not build like Derrick Henry.
 
He's done. The tires have fallen off and it will only get worse. I'm a little surprised you're not getting a bigger discount based on the mileage and last season's debacle.
While I don't think he is done, I was quite surprised at the iron grip our dynasty owner had on CMC. He must be hard to quit. I, for one, refuse to overpay even though he may have a couple more stud RBs left on the tires. ETA: In redraft, I would be a buyer.
I agree CMC isn’t “done”, I’m probably avoiding in redraft but that’s just because last year still stings and recency bias is a mofo.

The challenge I have with him in redraft is mostly the nature of the injury. I know every player is 1 bad hit away, but that doesn’t always mean out for the year. Could mean a couple games, maybe a month with a hammy or groin, etc.

I’d be willing to bet that if CMC comes up lame after a run because he aggravated one is his 2 ailing Achilles, he’s likely OFTY.

But there’s a chance he plays 17 games and is the #1 fantasy asset. I can think of no other player with a wider range of possible outcomes.
 
I actually think CMC vs Barkley is an interesting decision to make in redrafts, at least if you are looking at rolling the dice with a high upside proven older RB. At this point consensus favors Barkley but they are both moving in opposite directions, moving closer to each other.

Two older RB's with the RB1 history and upside.

Barkley just did it and is not coming off an injury which is why consensus is higher on him but his massive workload last year while CMC got a chance to rest his body is a huge deal to me. Injury risk or overuse risk is the dilemma for me. I've long thought, and have said here a few times, CMC's two injury shortened seasons in Carolina were aides to his later career. The body can only take so much punishment, at least if you are not build like Derrick Henry.
I don't understand why others treat them differently. They've each been injured and are similar in age. One is coming off a huge workload, while the other had a year off to rehabilitate. They should be valued similarly, yet they aren't in redraft and dynasty. CMC's drumbeat has been steadily gaining momentum as more people become aware of this.
 
I’d be curious to hear from a few homers?

How is the Oline coming together?
Is the defense good? Elite or the offense has to carry them?

These are factors I look at when taking a RB.
 
CMC's type of injuries have a high chance of recurring from what I've read. That's what scares me off at ADP.
Yep.

It could happen at any time. I heard CMC talk about it last year. It just flares up out of the blue -calf feels tight one day, next thing you know you’re out half the season.

He looks awesome. As a 49ers fan I’m extremely happy to see that.

As a FF manager I’m not interested in the risk this year. I completely understand why others would be.
I'm with you, and I wouldn't touch him, I"m just wondering other people's appetites

1.09 is good pricing relatively, but I think I'd need to see mid 2nd round to consider it

More than likely he'll just beat my brains in again while I look at him from afar
 
I’d be curious to hear from a few homers?

How is the Oline coming together?
Is the defense good? Elite or the offense has to carry them?

These are factors I look at when taking a RB.
Not a homer but heard good camp reports about Trent Williams health

Poor guy had a lot on his plate last year with the family stuff and injures
 
I’d be curious to hear from a few homers?

How is the Oline coming together?
:shrug:
Is the defense good? Elite or the offense has to carry them?
7 rookies and Saleh is back. Optimism, but nothing concrete. Anyone who claims to know definitively who doesn't work for the 49ers is probably guessing. Anyone saying anything who works for the 49ers can't be trusted this time of year. Or any other time of year.

So :shrug: #2
These are factors I look at when taking a RB.
It's a solid approach.
 
I actually think CMC vs Barkley is an interesting decision to make in redrafts, at least if you are looking at rolling the dice with a high upside proven older RB. At this point consensus favors Barkley but they are both moving in opposite directions, moving closer to each other.

Two older RB's with the RB1 history and upside.

Barkley just did it and is not coming off an injury which is why consensus is higher on him but his massive workload last year while CMC got a chance to rest his body is a huge deal to me. Injury risk or overuse risk is the dilemma for me. I've long thought, and have said here a few times, CMC's two injury shortened seasons in Carolina were aides to his later career. The body can only take so much punishment, at least if you are not build like Derrick Henry.
I don't understand why others treat them differently. They've each been injured and are similar in age. One is coming off a huge workload, while the other had a year off to rehabilitate. They should be valued similarly, yet they aren't in redraft and dynasty. CMC's drumbeat has been steadily gaining momentum as more people become aware of this.
One was hurt last year and the other was the most productive RB in the NFL.

One plays on a team that just won the SB, and the other is on a team with a ton of injuries & changes to the OL and D.

Also one has bilateral achiles tendonitis and the other does not.

Seems like vastly different circumstances to me.
 
I actually think CMC vs Barkley is an interesting decision to make in redrafts, at least if you are looking at rolling the dice with a high upside proven older RB. At this point consensus favors Barkley but they are both moving in opposite directions, moving closer to each other.

Two older RB's with the RB1 history and upside.

Barkley just did it and is not coming off an injury which is why consensus is higher on him but his massive workload last year while CMC got a chance to rest his body is a huge deal to me. Injury risk or overuse risk is the dilemma for me. I've long thought, and have said here a few times, CMC's two injury shortened seasons in Carolina were aides to his later career. The body can only take so much punishment, at least if you are not build like Derrick Henry.
I don't understand why others treat them differently. They've each been injured and are similar in age. One is coming off a huge workload, while the other had a year off to rehabilitate. They should be valued similarly, yet they aren't in redraft and dynasty. CMC's drumbeat has been steadily gaining momentum as more people become aware of this.
One was hurt last year and the other was the most productive RB in the NFL.

One plays on a team that just won the SB, and the other is on a team with a ton of injuries & changes to the OL and D.

Also one has bilateral achiles tendonitis and the other does not.

Seems like vastly different circumstances to me.
Both are 100% healthy right now

SF has played in multiple SB's recently

We talked about the tendinitis earlier in this thread

I don't see any differences. Both are elite RBs when healthy. Recency bias is a weird thing
 
Recency bias is a weird thing
It’s more a chronic condition than recency bias. He didn’t break his arm, he has 2 Achilles tendons that may or may not cooperate with him.

this is not recency bias other than we “recently” learned he has this condition that caused him to miss most of last year, and could return at any time.

Just keeping it 100
 
I actually think CMC vs Barkley is an interesting decision to make in redrafts, at least if you are looking at rolling the dice with a high upside proven older RB. At this point consensus favors Barkley but they are both moving in opposite directions, moving closer to each other.

Two older RB's with the RB1 history and upside.

Barkley just did it and is not coming off an injury which is why consensus is higher on him but his massive workload last year while CMC got a chance to rest his body is a huge deal to me. Injury risk or overuse risk is the dilemma for me. I've long thought, and have said here a few times, CMC's two injury shortened seasons in Carolina were aides to his later career. The body can only take so much punishment, at least if you are not build like Derrick Henry.
I don't understand why others treat them differently. They've each been injured and are similar in age. One is coming off a huge workload, while the other had a year off to rehabilitate. They should be valued similarly, yet they aren't in redraft and dynasty. CMC's drumbeat has been steadily gaining momentum as more people become aware of this.
One was hurt last year and the other was the most productive RB in the NFL.

One plays on a team that just won the SB, and the other is on a team with a ton of injuries & changes to the OL and D.

Also one has bilateral achiles tendonitis and the other does not.

Seems like vastly different circumstances to me.
Both are 100% healthy right now

SF has played in multiple SB's recently

We talked about the tendinitis earlier in this thread

I don't see any differences. Both are elite RBs when healthy. Recency bias is a weird thing
I think you summed it up well on both of your responses.

It's as simple as what do people worry about more? A guy returning from and injury or a guy coming off a massive career high workload the likes of which we've not seen in over 10 years.

Honestly I think the odds are more against Barkley with respect to history of RB's with that kind of workload. Not a lot of injury comp for CMC but we got a ton of info on RB's coming off that kind of usage and it's pretty bad.
 
Honestly I think the odds are more against Barkley with respect to history of RB's with that kind of workload. Not a lot of injury comp for CMC but we got a ton of info on RB's coming off that kind of usage and it's pretty bad.
Certainly possible, but with regards to CMC I heard him say in an interview that one day he’ll be feeling great and then the next it'll flare up.

Maybe he has 17 great days this year. It seems unlikely.

Barkley had a ton of touches, including the postseason. And you’re correct that history hasn’t been incredibly kind to RB the following year.

But dude is in remarkable shape, and for his years in the NFL his workload has been relatively tame prior to this. Going back to 2015 he’d only had more than 261 carries once (2022 295)

The year he got hurt he was coming off of a 217 carry season.

While there's a perceived link between high workload and injury risk in running backs, particularly with the "Curse of 370" referring to those with 370+ carries in a season, the data doesn't fully support a 100% injury rate.
Research from 2017 suggests that NFL running backs with high carry numbers in one season are not necessarily more prone to injury or declined performance in the following season. In fact, one study even found that those with higher workloads might be less injury prone compared to other running backs
plus all touches aren’t created equal, just like all RB aren’t created equal.

Different factors lead to injury - I’m not saying it doesn’t increase risk to have a heavy workload, but I also believe some of that “370+ curse” is a bit unscientific. It’s not a perfect predictor. It’s probably more accurate than the Madden Curse, but it’s not completely scientific.

As a football fan and especially a 49ers fan, I’m hopeful that both of these guys are able to play all year. The NFL is a lot more fun to watch with them both in it.

Hopefully both the Achilles tendonitis and 370 curse are non-factors for 2025 and beyond.

Personally I’m more likely to gamble on Saquan than CMC in redraft. In part because I superstitiously believe CMC only got hurt because I drafted him. That’s more accurate than any science.
;)
 
Put me in the group that's too scared to draft him anywhere in the 1st. I'd tale him in the high 3rd but I prefer to go the "safe" route with my two firsts for sure.
Would you take Barkley in the 1st? Just curious.
I am a total hypocrite in saying this but yes lol, depending on the pick though. I think CMC's injury concerns outweigh Barkley's usage concerns personally.

I have the 2nd option to pick my draft slot this year and have no idea which way to. I want to secure one of the big dogs so am leaning 1-4, and am thinking I'd take Chase, Bijan, JJ and Lamb over Barkley.
 
All I know is that in dynasty (at least in my league), CMC's value remains strong. We're not writing him off, that is for sure.
I just took over an orphan dynasty team that I need to rebuild. I sold CMC for the 1.05 and Zay Flowers. (Took Kaleb with 1.05). That was after I sold my 1.02 & 2.02 for Lamb. Now I have to find a suitor for Pickens & Bateman. Not having any luck. :ROFLMAO:
 
n an interview that one day he’ll be feeling great and then the next it'll flare up.
I have not heard this, can you provide a link? Not saying it's not true just would like to read/hear it myself, would appreciate it you can find it.
But dude is in remarkable shape, and for his years in the NFL his workload has been relatively tame prior to this
Are you saying the other RB's whose games faltered after huge workloads were not in remarkable shape?
plus all touches aren’t created equal,
I don't know what this means? I could get behind saying a reception is not as tasking as a carry but he got most of his touches as carries.

What I would mention is it's not just touches but it's games played and length of season. Like CMC the previous year Barkely played a career high amount of games into February.

Different factors lead to injury
It's not just injury, it's performance.


I only bring this up in CMC's thread because consensus opinion is starting to agree with this line of thinking. Barkley was going 2 or 1 back in initial FFPC drafts and in last 10 days in the FFPC Main Event he's dropped to 7th and CMC has rose up to 8th. In the smaller $350/Big Gorilla that has more ADP date it's a little wider but close with Barkley tied at 6 and CMC at 8.

My main point is people are starting to take CMC over Barkley in drafts, not all, but getting close and I think people are viewing them the same way. Both super high upside, the highest upside, both with massive risks.

Again we can agree to disagree and you are not nearly as concerned with Barkley's usage as me and others are concerned about. Easy thing might be to just pass them both up but right now we got concerns of various levels popping with majority of the mid to late first round players.
 
I have not heard this, can you provide a link? Not saying it's not true just would like to read/hear it myself, would appreciate it you can find it.
It was on the radio. Heard it while driving to work so it must have been KNBR. No link possible as it happened in real life not on the internet.
 
Are you saying the other RB's whose games faltered after huge workloads were not in remarkable shape?
No, I’m saying Barkley is in remarkable shape.

As for the others, the problem with looking at historic injury trends like that “370 curse” is that training methods, diets, workout schedules have all advanced over the years.

I don’t think anyone would argue that sports have evolved quite a bit in that regard. Players aren’t smoking darts in the dugout or sipping oil cans between innings any more.

So it’s possible that with that evolution players are in better condition, sure. But how much more and how much that does or doesn’t prevent injury is a mystery.
 
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My main point is people are starting to take CMC over Barkley in drafts, not all, but getting close and I think people are viewing them the same way. Both super high upside, the highest upside, both with massive risks.

Again we can agree to disagree and you are not nearly as concerned with Barkley's usage as me and others are concerned about. Easy thing might be to just pass them both up but right now we got concerns of various levels popping with majority of the mid to late first round players.
And that’s a fair point - I agree they both have risks.

but I don’t believe every injury is the same. The one CMC has concerns me more than most. If others aren’t as concerned about it, by all means they should draft him. “League-winning upside” is a legit possibility with both of these guys.

Not arguing that at all.

It's not just injury, it's performance.
Ah, that is absolutely true.

What I mean by not all touches is that with Barkley that OL opens holes a Mack truck can fit through. I don’t see those runs as highly impactful compared to a guy like Bettis or Beast Mode who would run into a wall, break through the other side and drag 5 bodies with them across the goal line 15 yards down field.

But you’re correct - it could just be impacted performance. Most of the stuff I’ve seen about that 370 curse mentioned injury. Saquan didn’t seem to slow down much in the superbowl.

I just get a better feeling about taking Barkley in redraft than CMC. Again, probably because I don’t wanna jinx CMC again, which again, is 100% scientific.
 
I actually think CMC vs Barkley is an interesting decision to make in redrafts, at least if you are looking at rolling the dice with a high upside proven older RB. At this point consensus favors Barkley but they are both moving in opposite directions, moving closer to each other.

Two older RB's with the RB1 history and upside.

Barkley just did it and is not coming off an injury which is why consensus is higher on him but his massive workload last year while CMC got a chance to rest his body is a huge deal to me. Injury risk or overuse risk is the dilemma for me. I've long thought, and have said here a few times, CMC's two injury shortened seasons in Carolina were aides to his later career. The body can only take so much punishment, at least if you are not build like Derrick Henry.
I don't understand why others treat them differently. They've each been injured and are similar in age. One is coming off a huge workload, while the other had a year off to rehabilitate. They should be valued similarly, yet they aren't in redraft and dynasty. CMC's drumbeat has been steadily gaining momentum as more people become aware of this.
One was hurt last year and the other was the most productive RB in the NFL.

One plays on a team that just won the SB, and the other is on a team with a ton of injuries & changes to the OL and D.

Also one has bilateral achiles tendonitis and the other does not.

Seems like vastly different circumstances to me.
Both are 100% healthy right now

SF has played in multiple SB's recently

We talked about the tendinitis earlier in this thread

I don't see any differences. Both are elite RBs when healthy. Recency bias is a weird thing
I think you summed it up well on both of your responses.

It's as simple as what do people worry about more? A guy returning from and injury or a guy coming off a massive career high workload the likes of which we've not seen in over 10 years.

Honestly I think the odds are more against Barkley with respect to history of RB's with that kind of workload. Not a lot of injury comp for CMC but we got a ton of info on RB's coming off that kind of usage and it's pretty bad.

I think the Eagles definitely want to reduce Barkley's touches this season. Reports are, AJ Dillon looks really good in camp. I'd like to see Barkley in the 325 touch range.
 
CMC vs Barkley is a reasonable argument for #1 overall pick
I’ll just take Bijan.

Anyone worried about Barkley's touches. He only had 13 more than Bijan.
They will ride him until the wheels fall off.

Last season, I knew Kellen Moore historically had good rushing offenses, so it was easier to like Barkley. This season, Patullo has no track record as an OC so I have no information to go off of.
 
I actually think CMC vs Barkley is an interesting decision to make in redrafts, at least if you are looking at rolling the dice with a high upside proven older RB. At this point consensus favors Barkley but they are both moving in opposite directions, moving closer to each other.

Two older RB's with the RB1 history and upside.

Barkley just did it and is not coming off an injury which is why consensus is higher on him but his massive workload last year while CMC got a chance to rest his body is a huge deal to me. Injury risk or overuse risk is the dilemma for me. I've long thought, and have said here a few times, CMC's two injury shortened seasons in Carolina were aides to his later career. The body can only take so much punishment, at least if you are not build like Derrick Henry.
I don't understand why others treat them differently. They've each been injured and are similar in age. One is coming off a huge workload, while the other had a year off to rehabilitate. They should be valued similarly, yet they aren't in redraft and dynasty. CMC's drumbeat has been steadily gaining momentum as more people become aware of this.
One was hurt last year and the other was the most productive RB in the NFL.

One plays on a team that just won the SB, and the other is on a team with a ton of injuries & changes to the OL and D.

Also one has bilateral achiles tendonitis and the other does not.

Seems like vastly different circumstances to me.
Both are 100% healthy right now

SF has played in multiple SB's recently

We talked about the tendinitis earlier in this thread

I don't see any differences. Both are elite RBs when healthy. Recency bias is a weird thing
I think you summed it up well on both of your responses.

It's as simple as what do people worry about more? A guy returning from and injury or a guy coming off a massive career high workload the likes of which we've not seen in over 10 years.

Honestly I think the odds are more against Barkley with respect to history of RB's with that kind of workload. Not a lot of injury comp for CMC but we got a ton of info on RB's coming off that kind of usage and it's pretty bad.

I think the Eagles definitely want to reduce Barkley's touches this season. Reports are, AJ Dillon looks really good in camp. I'd like to see Barkley in the 325 touch range.
Yep, was reading Patullo discuss and say he's had that convo with Barkley and they are on the same page but it's a challenges doing it in competitive situations to not have him on the field but if they want him effective later in the season they have to IMO.
 
Yep, was reading Patullo discuss and say he's had that convo with Barkley and they are on the same page but it's a challenges doing it in competitive situations to not have him on the field but if they want him effective later in the season they have to IMO.
Funny parallel to CMC since that’s the running joke with Shanny - every time he’s asked if he’ll manage CMCs workload he sort eludes to that, but it never, ever manifests in games.
 
So now that the high touch / risk concern trifecta is complete with the invocation of Bijan, here’s what Draftsharks shows as risk across RBs in handy chart form*.

*purely for entertainment and not for gambling purposes.

Amazingly KWIII is considered a much lower risk on this chart.

ETA: fun discussion - evolved well beyond CMC, but it’s clearly struck a nerve & led to some interesting dialogue. Good work, team. :hifive:

Ps - if you click on that more than 3x a day it’ll lock you out. But it’s cookie-based, so you can have unlimited access by clearing your cookies.
 
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Both are 100% healthy right now
From the stuff I’ve read from doctors opining on this, CMC will never truly be 100%.

But yes, at the moment he is not experiencing any flareups to either Achilles.
I posted the video of Kittle discussing this, along with a Twitter doc opining that we shouldn't worry too much. I'm not a doctor or injury expert, but I'll trust Kittle's word, given how he's performed coming off that same injury over the last few years. CMC looks and sounds healthy. Hopefully, he holds up.

Many people are forgetting just how good CMC is when it's healthy. He has won more leagues than Saquon has and is historically one of the fantasy GOATS.
 
I posted the video of Kittle discussing this, along with a Twitter doc opining that we shouldn't worry too much. I'm not a doctor or injury expert, but I'll trust Kittle's word, given how he's performed coming off that same injury over the last few years. CMC looks and sounds healthy. Hopefully, he holds up.
I’ve heard mixed from medical people, but sure it’s possible he’s past it.

But then, it’s possible he is not.
Many people are forgetting just how good CMC is when it's healthy. He has won more leagues than Saquon has and is historically one of the fantasy GOATS.
Believe me, nobody is forgetting this.

I remembered it wholeheartedly last year when I burned my season to the ground in my home league with 1 click.

But yes - he’s a league-winner if he plays most of the season (including FF playoffs).
 
I have not heard this, can you provide a link? Not saying it's not true just would like to read/hear it myself, would appreciate it you can find it.
It was on the radio. Heard it while driving to work so it must have been KNBR. No link possible as it happened in real life not on the internet.
Was this from last year or this summer? I haven't read anything about it recently either. From what I've seen he seems to be a full go right now with scheduled rest days to protect him as a precautionary measure, not because he's trying to recover from tendinitis.
 

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