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RB D’Andre Swift, CHI (2 Viewers)

Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
A lot of dudes get hurt & play through it.
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He's missed 8 games in 3 seasons - pretty much on par with most RBs.
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True, and I understand this speaks to the Lions limiting his opportunities by design, but on the flip side he has only started 8 games in three seasons, and managed a 50% or greater snap share in only 23 of 40 games played.

And he wasn't facing high end competition for touches either in Jamaal Williams and the ghost of Adrian Peterson.

By design or out of frustration he's missed a lot of time for a guy who isn't used a bunch in the first place.

I think we need to accept that he's a role player at best.

I expect the Lions to grab a running back no later than the 4th round and wouldn't be surprised if they took Bijan Robinson at 18.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
A lot of dudes get hurt & play through it.
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He's missed 8 games in 3 seasons - pretty much on par with most RBs.
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I posted this very thing just a page or so back.

He seems to lack toughness - sure, he played in more games than people realize, but in some he was ineffective/barely touched the ball.

Look at his 2022 game log - 5, 2, 5, 7, 6, 5, 5
- those are his rushing totals.

Appearing in games is fine, but dude needs to touch the ball to be FF relevant, much less thought of an an elite asset.

His heavy workload games were 11, 14, & 15. Seems like those are the outliers.

The 48 receptions were all that floated his FF relevance last year.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
A lot of dudes get hurt & play through it.
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He's missed 8 games in 3 seasons - pretty much on par with most RBs.
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And when you provided that info I could already see the responses "but he was hindred in those games, he was not a full time player, etc, etc".

He's averaged 14.84 fantasy points a game. That's not league winning RB1 stuff but it's the kind of production that usually puts you hovering in the top 15 PPG Rb's each year.

3 years in the league, has played 80% of the his games and provided top 15 range of PPG numbers and people can't stop hating on the guy.
 
menobrown said:
3 years in the league, has played 80% of the his games and provided top 15 range of PPG numbers and people can't stop hating on the guy.
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I’m not hating on him at all. 2022 was not a productive season, and that 3-year average is likely dragged down by it.

I actually like Swift - seems like a decent guy. No hate from me.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
menobrown said:
3 years in the league, has played 80% of the his games and provided top 15 range of PPG numbers and people can't stop hating on the guy.
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I’m not hating on him at all. 2022 was not a productive season, and that 3-year average is likely dragged down by it.

I actually like Swift - seems like a decent guy. No hate from me.
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I was not singling you out by any means. He's a hot topic player on these boards, for some reason has been since he came into the league. He's got immense potential and understand it leaves people wanting more but if you look over comments I think a lot of people treat him like he's been some total flameout or something, never available, not doing much when he is, etc,etc. Reality he's been a mostly available super high end RB2.
 
ffmail4me said:
Talk about quick regret, in the summer of 2022 I took him in the late 2nd of a startup SF dynasty league over Hall, Barkley, and Elker. :bag:
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To @menobrown (and @Dr. Octopus) points, there is still time for this to work out for you.

It hasn’t so far, but he is a young, and extremely talented RB.

It just hasn’t worked out for you yet. I know that’s no consolation when you look at those players you could have had, but all that production/lack thereof is water under the bridge.

He could have a monster 2023 & make me regret dealing him. Or he could be on another team next year where he’s used as more of a focal point of an offense.

I absolutely concede there’s a chance for both of those outcomes.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
there is still time for this to work out for you.

It hasn’t so far
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:shrug: 80% of games played and putting up close to 15 PPG is working out to me.

Sure there were better options. Can play that game with most draft picks. Even say taking Johnathan Taylor at 1 or 2 in hindsight was a good option, a great one, but not the best one. Some players picked over Swift the one league I drafted were sure worse options. CEH, Dobbins and Akers. But just putting him in perspective of where he was drafted and the fantasy performance he has provided I think he's worked out just fine.

I've used picks 1.5 on him and traded Joe Mixon for him I think sometime in October last year. In both cases I would say I could have picked a better player at 5, like say Lamb. I'm sure with benefit of hindsight I might have traded for better player using Mixon last October. But just with respect to what I paid for Swift, not what I could have chose instead, I'd saying it's working out just fine.
 
Swift might be better off on another team this last year of his contract. Jamaal is probably getting re-signed and a draft pick at RB is not off the table. Fresh start with new coaches might do him well.
 
He's been kind of a mystery to me. The whole deal with the coaches and his usage. "He needs to know the difference between an injury and pain." But he plays the vast majority of games; who's the one choosing to give him 3 carries in a whole game? If I heard that Swift on a regular basis has said "Coach, I can't stay out there, let me rest on the bench for a while. It hurts. I don't want to have to get hit again for the next quarter," then everything being said about him would add up, and my valuation of him would tank. But there's just no way he's saying that. Right?
 
menobrown said:
:shrug: 80% of games played and putting up close to 15 PPG is working out to me.
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Yet likely well short of the context I was replying to, e.g. the players listed.

Also likely the expectation that they were drafting a top 5 RB, not a top 15-18 RB.

Otherwise I’m not in disagreement with you.
 
Jamaal Williams is likely on to greener pastures.

Or still the possibility of dealing Swift I suppose, but that seems unlikely. Monty is gonna get the Jamaal role. His skill set is perfect for it.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dr. Octopus said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
My lack of faith paid off.

Epic for the Lions. Hell of a 1-2 punch. Brutal for Swift shareholders.
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How is it different from last year? Montgomery = Williams.
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IMO Monty > Williams. Montgomery is a more rounded back, better receiver, and more elusive. IIRC he’s been one of the best in the NFL at avoiding contact. That’s not JaaWill’s game.
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He’ll have the same role as Williams. I see this as a lateral move for Swift’s value.

No use in going back and forth though.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Jamaal Williams is likely on to greener pastures.

Or still the possibility of dealing Swift I suppose, but that seems unlikely. Monty is gonna get the Jamaal role. His skill set is perfect for it.
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Was talk of Jamaal going to Cincy. With Perine gone maybe it’s true.

I think Montgomery has more juice than Jamaal and can do even more of the Swift pass catching role.
 
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zamboni said:
I think Montgomery has more juice than Jamaal and can do even more of the Swift pass catching role.
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I agree with this. Monty is a better pass catcher and a more elusive back. e.g. he can do some of the things Swift can do, which JaWill could not.

He’s also 2 years younger and can maybe handle more of a workload. Not sure how much of a concern that was for JaWill, so that’s less of a concern.

Just seems like Monty could have a larger role than Williams did, but time will tell of course.

One thing is for certain - none of this has helped my Justin Jackson stock. :kicksrock:
 
I actually think it’s good for Swift. Monty has zero locker room/leadership history there which was a huge part of JWills success and role. It’s not always just about between the lines. He’s going to have to win the staff over and frankly he’s JAG+.

I’d much rather see Monty as the competition than coach favorite Jamaal.
 
I see no change at all for Swift with Monty in place of Jamaal.

I just saw one thing about this I hated to see and left me saying come on man. I've got one league I've owned Swift since drafting him. Back when they signed Jamaal I thought I'd make a trade for him if he had not been cut as he already had been in some leagues of mine. I scanned the rosters and saw he was being held by a team that never trades. I mean never, not a single trade in 11 years. I thought what terrible luck and yes he's held Jamaal all these years. So just now I went to check on who owns Monty and yeah, same guy.
 
This is a great buy low opportunity. Hold him for a year. He will be somewhere else. The durability concerns will be baked into his value- he still produces with limited touches but people need to get away from viewing Swift as a RB1. That mental block and dissatisfaction prevents objective analysis.

He’s a very useful RB2, even with the aforementioned limitations.
 
Mister CIA said:
I'm still high on D'Andre Swift. I feel strong late-bloomer DeAngelo Willams vibes.

20 TDs, here it comes.
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Appreciate the optimism, but I think Swift is settling in as another Tevin Coleman. Big play ability, but between injuries and lack of trust, he just never seems to be taking the next step.

I will agree with some others, that Williams to Montgomery is a lateral move. Speaking as a Bears fan, Montgomery is a very good tackle breaker, but is often breaking tackles because his lack of burst means he was late to the hole. Leads to some nice highlight runs, where he breaks 3-4 tackles, but there is a reason his career YPC is under 4.
 
Jamaal Williams didn't get any respect. That's why he was available late in most drafts - I drafted him as a RB 4 in a big league 2 years in a row. I think Montgomery goes higher in 2023 than Jamaal did in 2022. Montgomery looks better on tape, but Jamaal was equal or better than Montgomery 2 years in a row per pff.
 
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SoBeDad said:
Jamaal Williams didn't get any respect. That's why he was available late in most drafts - I drafted him as a RB 4 in a big league 2 years in a row. I think Montgomery goes higher in 2023 than Jamaal did in 2024. Montgomery looks better on tape, but Jamaal was equal or better than Montgomery 2 years in a row per pff.
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some of that was undoubtedly the Lions OL Vs the Bears OL though.

Montgomery on the lions last year might well have outperformed Williams.

And I say that with all due respect to Williams. I landed him on my redraft IDP roster in the 22 of 27 rounds - he was a big part of my league historic best 13-2 regular season record.

Monty will undoubtedly go higher than he did. But IMO he also has a higher ceiling than Williams, as he is a better receiver. If Swift misses time I’d rather have Monty than Williams.
 
Put it this way

A guy who was a team captain, coach favorite, ran for 1,000 yards and scored 17 TDs just left the room. And this is somehow BAD for Swift?

Jamaal Williams is a solid runner and very good at short yardage, but that’s not WHY he put up those numbers last year. It was mainly because he personified the essence of what the coaches wanted the running game to be. He had their complete trust. And now, he’s out of the way.

Montgomery is fine, he can break some tackles and is pretty good out of the backfield as a receiver, but that’s not in the same galaxy of what Jamaal brought to the table with intangibles. Jamaal earned his opportunities in the locker room, weight room, film room…then capitalized on the field when he got his shot. Maybe Monty can do all of that, but it’s a big ask to do so and even if he does, worst case you end up in the same spot with Swift as a part time runner that hits RB2 status because of his receiving ability.

If Jamaal was coming back, you know it’s gonna be about the same unless you get an injury. With Monty (or any new blood apart from Bijan or maybe Miles Sanders) there’s a bunch of things that can turn the backfield from a split into Swift being the actual lead back.

Probably time to put out some feelers.
 
Da Franchise said:
Put it this way

A guy who was a team captain, coach favorite, ran for 1,000 yards and scored 17 TDs just left the room. And this is somehow BAD for Swift?

Jamaal Williams is a solid runner and very good at short yardage, but that’s not WHY he put up those numbers last year. It was mainly because he personified the essence of what the coaches wanted the running game to be. He had their complete trust. And now, he’s out of the way.

Montgomery is fine, he can break some tackles and is pretty good out of the backfield as a receiver, but that’s not in the same galaxy of what Jamaal brought to the table with intangibles. Jamaal earned his opportunities in the locker room, weight room, film room…then capitalized on the field when he got his shot. Maybe Monty can do all of that, but it’s a big ask to do so and even if he does, worst case you end up in the same spot with Swift as a part time runner that hits RB2 status because of his receiving ability.

If Jamaal was coming back, you know it’s gonna be about the same unless you get an injury. With Monty (or any new blood apart from Bijan or maybe Miles Sanders) there’s a bunch of things that can turn the backfield from a split into Swift being the actual lead back.

Probably time to put out some feelers.
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You make some good points. My initial take though is that they must really like Montgomery to let the beloved Jamaal walk - it's not like Jamaal would command that big of a contract to be retained.

I doubt Montgomery will have anywhere near that kind of locker room presence, but his overall skill set must have been alluring to team brass. The big unknown is whether Monty turns out to be fool's gold and Swift supplants him to the bench. That's where the risk comes in and Swift could indeed be had on the cheap - and for dynasty leagues, leaving via FA after 2023 could be big.
 
zamboni said:
The big unknown is whether Monty turns out to be fool's gold and Swift supplants him to the bench
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Swift is the better RB, but with that contract and with what happened last season, I’d expect Montgomery to start in the Williams role, and perhaps be solid enough to keep it.
Montgomery is incredibly slow - and in this offense will look even slower - so if Swift does stay healthy and earn some trust, I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually earns more of the backfield snaps.
 
Swift is a question for sure. I remember watching Hard Knocks last summer and couldn't shake the feeling for as much as I wanted the D'Andre Swift explosion to happen, it felt like we were forcing it. I was a little to excited anytime he did something remotely positive and I was a little too unsurprised when he seemed stuck in neutral.

For Montgomery, here's our Footballguys take on from yesterday.

David Montgomery has found a new home with the Detroit Lions. Montgomery is now expected to take over for former incumbent Jamaal Williams as the early down running back on a team that ranked fifth in points per game in 2022. Lions head coach Dan Campbell just got himself a shiny new workhorse.

Keep up with all the offseason movement with our Free Agent Tracker >>>

CONTRACT TERMS

David Montgomery signed with the Detroit Lions on a three-year deal worth $18 million with $11 million guaranteed.

FANTASY IMPACT

David Montgomery has just stepped in as the presumed early-down workhorse for the Detroit Lions. He is no stranger to early-down work, as he spent the last four years of his career averaging 229 rush attempts per year for the Chicago Bears.

See why the big moves matter with our Instant Reactions >>>

Montgomery shouldn't have to worry about being overly efficient in Detroit. In 2022, Williams was the definition of an early-down grinder, carrying the ball 262 times while averaging 4.1 yards per attempt. As inefficient as Williams was, the Lions kept on feeding him. In comparison, a much younger Montgomery averaged four yards per carry behind a seemingly worse Bears offensive line and offense.

Montgomery finished as RB26 in fantasy points per game in 2022, which would've classified him as an RB3 on most fantasy rosters. Meanwhile, an older and less agile Williams finished as RB18 in fantasy points per game. An elevated fantasy floor can be expected for Montgomery in 2023. He likely won't reach RB1 status, but he should be bumped up rankings across all formats. Montgomery is an underrated receiver. However, expect that most of Montgomery's fantasy value will be created through carries rather than receptions.

How this affects D'Andre Swift is somewhat shrouded in mystery. To the dismay of many fantasy managers, Swift seemed to be on the outs in 2022. A far more efficient player than Williams, he seemed not to fit the grinder culture that Dan Campbell exuded upon the team. In 2023, Swift will carry a base salary of $1,774,397. He's certainly a player the Lions could afford to cut or trade. Judging by the history of the player and ball club, it seems like it would be in the best interest of both parties to move on from each other.

FANTASY FALLOUT

As for Detroit, Jamaal Williams is all but gone. He's sure to land on his feet for one of the many teams needing a reliable early-down running back.

For now, Montgomery's departure leaves former Virginia Tech running back and fantasy handcuff extraordinaire Khalil Herbert as the unrivaled RB1 for the Bears. Dynasty managers are rejoicing in the streets, and they should be for a good reason. Herbert has always impressed with the limited opportunity he's been given over the past two years. In 2022, Herbert was ranked seventh in yards per touch. He's a more than capable runner with efficient footwork and a physical profile more than qualified to shoulder 230-plus attempts. The Herbert faithful will be closely watching the remainder of the offseason in hopes that the Bears do not make any other significant additions to their backfield.

Behind Herbert is former Baylor running back Trestan Ebner, along with newly acquired Travis Homer. Ebner had performed well during the 2022 preseason. He was, however, relegated to only 24 carries and two receptions during 2022. Ebner is an athletic player who scored as an upper percentile athlete with an 89th percentile speed score, which shows on tape. He is slighter than desired by most NFL coaches to shoulder a heavy load but could be a dark horse as the Bears' designated receiving back in 2023. He makes for a very cheap addition in Dynasty formats.

Homer offers little fantasy value and should be disregarded as a fantasy asset.

STOCK WATCH

David Montgomery’s value should see a marginal bump through significant rushing volume and as the designated goal-line running back for the Chicago Bears. Williams scored 17 rushing touchdowns last year. Fourteen came on 28 attempts from inside the opponent’s five-yard line. While anticipating Montgomery will come close to 17 touchdowns is unrealistic, it’s safe to say his bread and butter will be made from the same portion of the field.
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Dr. Octopus said:
zamboni said:
The big unknown is whether Monty turns out to be fool's gold and Swift supplants him to the bench
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Swift is the better RB, but with that contract and with what happened last season, I’d expect Montgomery to start in the Williams role, and perhaps be solid enough to keep it.
Montgomery is incredibly slow - and in this offense will look even slower - so if Swift does stay healthy and earn some trust, I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually earns more of the backfield snaps.
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Totally agree Swift is much faster and more dynamic, but Joe is probably right that we are trying to force it with Swift. He's just in the wrong system for a coach that wants to grind it out. Even if Montgomery falters, I could see a Justin Jackson/Craig Reynolds (or someone of that ilk) taking on the heavy lifting and leaving Swift in his role. He just needs a change of scenery IMO.
 
zamboni said:
Joe is probably right that we are trying to force it with Swift.
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I’m not trying to force anything. I’m basing my analysis on watching him play - and I clearly stated that I see Montgomery in the Williams role which of course limits Swift.

I just don’t think Montgomery is as good as some are trying to stretch here - and there’s a possibility that when he bogs down the offense the staff looks for more of a spark. I’m not saying Swift will get a bell cow role - but I do think he has more of a chance to win snaps from an “outsider” than Williams who the team and staff rallied around.
 
zamboni said:
Dr. Octopus said:
zamboni said:
The big unknown is whether Monty turns out to be fool's gold and Swift supplants him to the bench
Click to expand...
Swift is the better RB, but with that contract and with what happened last season, I’d expect Montgomery to start in the Williams role, and perhaps be solid enough to keep it.
Montgomery is incredibly slow - and in this offense will look even slower - so if Swift does stay healthy and earn some trust, I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually earns more of the backfield snaps.
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Totally agree Swift is much faster and more dynamic, but Joe is probably right that we are trying to force it with Swift. He's just in the wrong system for a coach that wants to grind it out. Even if Montgomery falters, I could see a Justin Jackson/Craig Reynolds (or someone of that ilk) taking on the heavy lifting and leaving Swift in his role. He just needs a change of scenery IMO.
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Also what all the “haters” seem to ignore is that even in his part-time role, Swift produces. He averaged 15 ppg last season - so even if nothing changes at all he’s still very useful.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
I’m not saying Swift will get a bell cow role - but I do think he has more of a chance to win snaps from an “outsider” than Williams who the team and staff rallied around.
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That's a good point. Williams is off the chart for lovable guy. And that's a weird spot to be vulturing a ton of TDs from the young guy. Not every player could do that and keep team chemistry great. I have no idea if Montgomery can pull that off as well.
 
This is a mess. I always avoided Monty because he seemed like replacement level talent, just racking it up on volume. I hate owning guys like that. You never know when some rookie or FA will steal their job. At 6mil per year he wasn't exactly signed for big money, but it sure leaves this situation in flux. Will avoid.
 
Willy said:
This is a mess. I always avoided Monty because he seemed like replacement level talent, just racking it up on volume. I hate owning guys like that. You never know when some rookie or FA will steal their job. At 6mil per year he wasn't exactly signed for big money, but it sure leaves this situation in flux. Will avoid.
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$6 million per year is actually pretty sizable these days for an RB, especially when you consider that Barkley, Jacobs and Pollard were tagged at $10 million (the average of the top 5 IIRC). Whether that was money well spent is what we'll be debating all season long.
 
zamboni said:
Willy said:
This is a mess. I always avoided Monty because he seemed like replacement level talent, just racking it up on volume. I hate owning guys like that. You never know when some rookie or FA will steal their job. At 6mil per year he wasn't exactly signed for big money, but it sure leaves this situation in flux. Will avoid.
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$6 million per year is actually pretty sizable these days for an RB, especially when you consider that Barkley, Jacobs and Pollard were tagged at $10 million (the average of the top 5 IIRC). Whether that was money well spent is what we'll be debating all season long.
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Totally agree...factor in there seems to be a decent number of options via the draft, FA or a potential trade and this seems like a pretty solid commitment to Montgomery.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
zamboni said:
The big unknown is whether Monty turns out to be fool's gold and Swift supplants him to the bench
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Swift is the better RB, but with that contract and with what happened last season, I’d expect Montgomery to start in the Williams role, and perhaps be solid enough to keep it.
Montgomery is incredibly slow - and in this offense will look even slower - so if Swift does stay healthy and earn some trust, I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually earns more of the backfield snaps.
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Wishful thinking IMO. I don’t believe Swift will ever get anymore than he gets in Detroit. He’s going to have to go elsewhere.
 
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