Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I see a lot of what you are saying, same college of course. Pierce impressed me with his compact but strong frame and burst, the vision on that 4th and 1 play, no hesitation by the Texans at about midfield.
-Must remember how bad the passing game is likely to be vs strong NFL offenses but it looks like he is going to get touches inside the Redzone, inside the 5-yd line, any TD plunge, looks like it's Pierce.
Going back over my Draft notes, had this guy super high on my list and then I backed off big time when the Texans drafted him. Still time to correct that thinking going into the weekend.
You hate to overreact to preseason but this could be the Rookie of the Year at RB and what that totals up is a guess...one other thing are the receptions. The QB is not a running QB although he is no statue either but he wants to be a pocket passer and that means sometimes he needs to dump it off. Brandin Cooks is an accomplished veteran Wide Receiver but the rest are hot garbage IMO and Pierce stands a chance to catch a lot of unforeseen targets we might be overlooking.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
36 catches for over 360 yds and 4 Touchdowns his Junior and Senior Years, he's untapped potential in the passing game, over 11 yds a clip as a Senior, just didn't get enough touches, Lovie Smith apparently happy to feed this kid a steady diet of touches.
I'll have Pierce going in the early 2nd round by the end of tonight
I'll have Pierce going in the early 2nd round by the end of tonight
Deamon
Footballguy
Not sure how you put him that high. That's over guys like Dillon, Dobbins, Akers, etc. FWIW FBG still has him at RB34 and I'm assuming they'll bump him to the 25-30 range but no higher.
Deamon
Footballguy
Wut36 catches for over 360 yds and 4 Touchdowns his Junior and Senior Years, he's untapped potential in the passing game, over 11 yds a clip as a Senior, just didn't get enough touches, Lovie Smith apparently happy to feed this kid a steady diet of touches.
I'll have Pierce going in the early 2nd round by the end of tonight
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Happy to take him over all 3 of those. Just my opinion of course.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
What will Pierce's ADP be in 2023?
That will tell you what he is worth for anyone in Redrafts between now and Week 1.
That will tell you what he is worth for anyone in Redrafts between now and Week 1.
Deamon
Footballguy
He's not going to be going early 2nd round in a single redraft
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Agreed I have him a lot closer to RB30 than RB20. I don't really trust their offensive line, especially on the interior.
But he's def looked great so far.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
I hope this stays true for my remaining drafts. Young starting RB with 15-20 touches per game that will be used in every aspect of the game at RB25-30 I am all the f in.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
That might be true but early 2nd is about RB8-10 and the field opens up that point in what is an acceptable draft position. Someone who wants him and thinks he won't be there on the 3/4 turn might jump in front of others.
MoP Draft Mindset: What will this person be going ADP(IMO) in 2023? That question is a good one to use when evaluating what a players is worth in the current Draft '22.
Pierce is starting to look like an easy Top 3-4 round selection in 2023 if he takes off like many are observing.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Exactly, but we know that we want to take him because we feel there is a better % chance of this guy vaulting higher than his current spot at 25-30th RB than say 4-5 names before him and 4-5 names after him. I definitely would start inching him up to a spot you can comfortably secure him to pair with some others who go after RB15 like Akers, Mitchell and Monty. I have never been more open to waiting on RB than I have this year. I still would like a solid RB1, even something others don't get excited about like Harris or Mixon, assured to get a lot of touches.
Deamon
Footballguy
We can't predict what his ADP will be in 2023, and he is still a RB on a bad offense. Just don't know how you can jump someone from round 10 to round 2 after 1 game. I'm in on the hype too but 2nd round is ridiculous.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Ideal RB3 target but I really don't want him as an RB2 with as murky the situation and surround cast/coaching staff unknowns. 6th/7th round seems ideal- maybe reach in 5th.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Northern Alaska is beautiful when the sun is out.
Deamon
Footballguy
This is where I'm at too. I think late 6th feels right.
rockaction
Footballguy
Count me as someone who doesn't think Houston will be horrible. There, I said it. I'd need to look at their schedule, but I think I'd bet the over on the +4.5 line they have for o/u on wins this year.
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya I think they can improve by 1 win on last year which would put them over. I say they win 5 or 6 games.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I mean it's hard to watch him and not get a little excited but this is so out of hand. Most of his runs were up the middle bruising his way through. For one thing, his style may lead to him getting banged up a lot. Preseason is also a different animal where defenses are more vanilla and teams are working things into the mix.
I'm coming around on him but I think the hype will always be outpacing me.
Deamon
Footballguy
Same. I think in some home leagues though I might still get him. But the hype among sharks is too much for me and he'll go earlier than I want.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
They certainly benefit from a soft division. Though they played in that soft division last year. They have a long way to go to getting better. Last year they gave up the most yards per game on defense and put up the fewest yards per game on offense.
Agree that the hype on Pierce is getting a little crazy, but he is so much better than what they had last year with their geriatric backfield so from a team standpoint, a big improvement.
Also like the passing game with Mills having a year under his belt and Cooks and Collins to throw to. If I was motivated to bet, I would take the over.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
We can predict anything we want, that's what a prediction is. And the evidence is mounting day by day in Houston. Doesn't mean we will be right, obviously you have some doubts and rightfully so.
Part of this is Shark Pool speak and part of it is how I am starting to feel here. We're not talking about a guy who had a few nice runs and is buried on the depth chart or only got the nod because the real starters are being held out, that's not the case here in Houston.
Deamon
Footballguy
I don't have the doubts you think. And I'm not saying he's a Darwin Thompson situation because he's definitely the starter unquestioned. My issue is you suggesting he's top 10 RB value this year and a 2nd round pick.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
His ADP to this point and his home league value are somewhat irrelevant to me. I would be very curious to know his ADP/value in higher stakes leagues over the next week and a half (my sharkiest league drafts on Labor day).
If someone has a way to track that data Id be very interested.
If someone has a way to track that data Id be very interested.
Deamon
Footballguy
Fantasy Football Advice | Fantasy Football Rankings | Fantasy Football News from DraftSharks
Average draft position information and news from Draft Sharks to help you dominate your league
www.draftsharks.com
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Perfection. Many thanks.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You're absolutely right, to think about grabbing this guy before some others but when you get to the point in the draft where Akers and Elijah Mitchell are ready to be grabbed and somehow you miss out on the Rb2/3//Flex run in that 15-30 band of RBs, I like the upside with Pierce and what Houston appears set to do with him vs several other names going around his draft spot and so I don't mind jumping the gun and taking him perhaps 2 rounds earlier than others would. We're still talking mid to late single digit rounds I'm assuming. I don't think you are going to slide him on to the roster in the 12th round any more.
You're predicting what round in 2023 Pierce is drafted? 10th? I think he has a chance to soar or far surpass his draft slot right now.
Monty, Akers, Mitchell, Singletary and Pierce make a very interesting RBBC when you factor in ADP...and if you take a few of these names because you aren't likely to get them all but you should have multiple games to play match ups with weekly.
1st RB/WR- 2nd WR/RB 3rd-WR 4th-WR, 5th-Akers/Mitchell, 6th-Singletary and I would say at any point here Pierce is a viable pick as an RB3/Flex/Bye/SPot start
Just a loose example.
Last edited:
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
ADP 0f 7.7 over at FFPC in the last 2 days. Low 6.4 and high of 8.8. I am not sure how many leagues, but I would guess in the 20+ range.
TripItUp
Footballguy
will be interesting to see what it is over the next two days in high stakes...we know it's not going down.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I actually thought this was the Stevenson thread and that ADP is for him .... Pierce is 7.2 with a high of 5.3 and low of 8.5
Deamon
Footballguy
I don't know how to predict what round he goes in NEXT year, that all depends on so many things. Maybe Houston drafts another RB... maybe he demands a trade
I mean I'd guess maybe 4th round next year? I'm not sure, total guess. Maybe round 1 if he goes off this year. Maybe round 10 next year if he stumbles this year.I think this year the risk needs to be baked in. I think he should be going WAY above his 10th round ADP. A full 4 rounds higher than it.
Deamon
Footballguy
Fantasy Football Advice | Fantasy Football Rankings | Fantasy Football News from DraftSharks
Average draft position information and news from Draft Sharks to help you dominate your league
www.draftsharks.com
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Not sure what to do with him so I swapped him with Antonio Gibson in my pre-draft rankings. Prior to last night, I had Gibson RB28/71st overall, Pierce RB37/95th.
I have the 59th/62nd picks. Right now that would be around the Dillon/CEH or pivot to ARSB range. That seems like an easy pass. At 83rd/86th, Hunt/Pollard/Penny.
He's probably not in my draft plans Sunday but who knows how things shake out.
On the VERY plus side, his competition for snaps are 32 year old Burkhead, 28 year old Dare Ogunbowale, and Mack (37 touches the last two seasons.) It's not crazy to think he could put up 1200 YFS, 35 catches with 7 RRTDs. Low end RB2 conversation. Maybe I need a day or two to reprocess where he should be ranked.
Draft profile:
Strengths
I have the 59th/62nd picks. Right now that would be around the Dillon/CEH or pivot to ARSB range. That seems like an easy pass. At 83rd/86th, Hunt/Pollard/Penny.
He's probably not in my draft plans Sunday but who knows how things shake out.
On the VERY plus side, his competition for snaps are 32 year old Burkhead, 28 year old Dare Ogunbowale, and Mack (37 touches the last two seasons.) It's not crazy to think he could put up 1200 YFS, 35 catches with 7 RRTDs. Low end RB2 conversation. Maybe I need a day or two to reprocess where he should be ranked.
Draft profile:
Strengths
- Grown-man physique.
- Unique weight-room power feeds into springy hips/feet.
- Averaged a touchdown every seven touches in 2021.
- Makes defenses feel his energy and urgency.
- No hesitation charging through the line of scrimmage.
- Violent runner who is hard to knock off his feet.
- Saves the run with top-flight contact balance.
- Rare talent to create yardage in a phone booth.
- Processes fronts quickly, making wise lane choices.
- Able to create suddenly without slowing his feet.
- Displayed talent to work the seam over cover linebackers.
- Just nine career games with 10 or more carries.
- Herky-jerky runner lacking desired tempo and timing.
- Average escape speed out of the side door.
- Much more natural off-tackle than between the tackles.
- A little tight with change-of-direction transitions.
- Needs an extra step to make his downhill cut.
- Hand usage in pass pro needs work.
I did a Main Event Tuesday night and he went 7.9 and a FBG draft(with @barackdhouse) Wednesday night and he went 6.8.
He will of course be moving up from there and the 7.2-7.5 ADP he has before last nights game further cemented his value.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Nice, I did a 12 team SF auction last night and he went for 12$ of a 200$ budget. He's no longer a secret and the price is rising!
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
RB40
ADP-112 overall, roughly the 9th-10th round in a 12 team league.
-at the moment...
ADP-112 overall, roughly the 9th-10th round in a 12 team league.
-at the moment...
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
The hardest thing to wrap my head around is how few touches he got overall at Florida. He never came close to 1,000 yds rushing or was not given that opportunity.
His hands are much better than folks think, I mentioned he had 36 catches for over 360 yds and 4 TDs, every 9 catches he scores and his yds per catch his Senior Year was over 11. I came up with the totals by combining his Junior and Senior Year but apparently he just needs more touches.
Can he hold up an entire year? His compact and solid frame says he can but he's never been a high volume RB, at least not in college.
Not saying what you are alluding to here is a concern for you but it seems to be for many. Someone please correct me if I'm forgetting someone but the last time I remember this issue, a Rb's lack of touches, was so heavily discussed as a major concern was for Kamara.
His style of play is obviously nothing like Kamara's but the main point remains that sometimes coaches don't have a clue what they are doing. As such it's a non issue to me with respect to worrying about "does it mean he's not that good". With respect to holding up for an entire year I would say just a little but that as much to do with his run to contact violent running style. With respect to dynasty his lack of heavy usage is nothing but a positive to me.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
Actually view his low volume usage in college as a positive. Less wear and tear... and in theory, a longer NFL shelf life. There are programs who have a stable of RB's and can afford to rotate and keep them fresh (I will defer to Florida fans on their level of talent at RB).
Pierce passes the eye test, has questionable competition for snaps and has played well enough in the preseason to warrant an upgrade in everyone's rankings... without question. And while I have no desire to temper everyone's enthusiasm here, please just remember the standard caveat that this IS the preseason. By all means move him up in your rookie drafts... but before you spend that 2nd or 3rd round pick in a redraft you later regret when you remind yourself of that fact midseason.
rockaction
Footballguy
Amen. This is also why I don't worry about backfield shares so much anymore.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Alvin Kamara college stats
And that was after he couldn’t beat out Henry, Drake or Yeldon and dropped down to CC for a year.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
ADP-112 except if you Draft with a lot of FBGs, then maybe you need to draft a lot higher. That's about the 9th-10th round. but his hype will push him up this weekend. I think you might need to try a 7th/8th if you really want him and believe he could be the RotY at RB
I don't think burning an 8th to beat the rush is a bad idea here but I'm assuming many other RB names are off the board.
I saw someone mention Penny as an example of who you are passing up for Pierce and that's an interesting debate but by the end of Sept/early Oct when Kenny Walker is fully recovered from sports hernia surgery, it's going to be talked up endlessly that the Rookie should get snaps and touches.. Pierce simply won't be facing that kind of a situation because Pierce IS the ROOKIE that is pushing all the vets to the bench.
No real additions in FA, no impact draft picks outside of maybe Pierce and maybe they’ll have one NFL caliber corner. Texans were dead last in rushing yardage last year despite being 23rd in attempts. Last in offensive yards and 2nd to last in defensive yards.
Texans schedule is much harder than last year IMO. They play the AFC West and NFC East this year, other opponents are the Dolphins, Cleveland with the return of Watson, and the Bears. Last year they beat Jacksonville twice, somehow beat the Chargers, and Tennessee in a deluge rain game with 4 takeaways. If the Texans are going to be any better this year record wise it will be because of their soft division or they find a Diamond in the rough with Mills. If Jacksonville actually improves I wouldn’t expect more than 2 or 3 wins total though. My personal opinion is they are sticking with Mills to purposefully lose as many games as possible for their rebuild but maybe he’s the next late round gem, you never know.
He was the 3rd pick in the 3rd round, so hardly a "late rounder". He also played much better than Lawrence, Wilson and Fields despite being on just a crappy of team. Probably played better than Jones too if you compare their situations as far as the teams they played for.
So say that they are sticking with Mills to purposefully lose games is way off base. They think they potentially have their QB of the future cheap and if it turns out to not be the case, they can draft a QB in 2023 because their record will suck if Mills plays poorly.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Henry, Drake and Yeldon are probably a bit more talented than 5th year senior Malik Davis and Nay'quan Wright.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't think anyone in the league is trying to lose. However, I think they know that the team isn't ready yet. Mills, like almost every player on the roster, is essentially trying out for their future with the team in 2022.
I haven't heard anyone say the Texans are ready yet. I think they will be better than last year though.
Yeah, if Mills plays poorly, they will re-evaluate the position. But so will the Jets, the Bears and possibly even the Jags (although Lawrence has a longer rope being the #1 overall pick).
Similar threads
