Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
To be fair, I didn’t interpret it as you calling me stupid.
But i do think you’ve picked a weird hill to die on.
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RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rockaction
- Start date
But i do think you’ve picked a weird hill to die on.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m telling you that for at least a week, the greater FF community, including a number of writers and posters I respect, were pushing the narrative that Pacheco would be a bellcow.
No need to put words in my mouth when
I’ve been unambiguous about that throughout this discussion. You can simply refer to my earlier posts if you want to know what I’m telling you. No need to project, thanks.
I’ve said more in here than I GAF about, frankly. I have 1 share of Pacheco in a free league. It’s insane I’ve had to defend such a moderate and reasonable position, but I’m done doing so. Have fun yall.
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm glad to hear that but, nonetheless, in 2024 I should be more careful about choosing words.
I think you're trying to micro-parse into oblivion so eventually your stance can be viewed as correct.
There was always going to be another RB. It is bizarre that at any point anyone would think that wasn't the case.
Chaka
Footballguy
So, are you saying that for the entire offseason while CEH was presumably available you thought Pacheco would not be a bellcow. Then when CEH left you thought he would. And then after Perine was signed you thought he wouldn't be a bellcow?
That's an honest question. Explain it such that you don't feel I am putting words in your mouth.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And I think folks are using strawmen and overly generalizing (“Perine has no chance of taking the RB1 job!”) in attempt to some convince me that Perine isn’t going to cap Pacheco’s ceiling.
That’s ok. I’m comfortable with my position. I’m done defending it. It’s been informative though.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I guess there were apparently people that somehow expected that Pacheco was going to get 20-22 carries and 5-7 receptions every week. I, for one, was not one of them.
Before adding Perine, KC still had CEH (scheduled to return after the first few weeks), Steele, Keaontay Ingram, and Emani Bailey. Plus, they had access to a broad list of guys that got released and / or signed to practice squads. They chose the latter. Pacheco was never going to get all those touches and receptions. People that expected that either a) have no idea how football works, 2) have no idea how Reid operates, 3) don't understand that RBs don't get 95% of a team's workload, or 4) take fantasy analysts on X way too seriously if there were experts suggesting Pacheco was getting 350+ touches.
Here's an example, the Patriots a year or two ago had no kicker rostered leading up to Week 1. They didn't want to guarantee a kicker his annual salary by being on the Opening Day roster. They had kickers on their practice squad, and they promoted one for Week 1. But no one was on their roster the day before the season started . . . based on that, would an accurate projection for the Patriots kicking game have been 0 FG and 0 XP for the season?
Let's use BAL as another example. Justice Hill had 6 receptions for 55 YFS last night. Are people suggesting Derrick Henry is going to lose a ton of touches and fantasy production because of Hill? Yet the Chiefs added a guy that got one reception, and Pacheco is the one that seemingly is project to see his value and workload plummeting. Whether it be Henry or Pacheco, they are in the same situation today as they were yesterday . . . or 3 weeks ago.
Chaka
Footballguy
Never once said or implied that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
stop quoting me. I’m done with this nonsense.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And I didn’t say that you specifically did. You’re not the only one in here.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No one has said it would be “plummeting”.
Do you think “caps his ceiling” is the same thing as “value plummeting”?
Hyperbole much?
Chaka
Footballguy
No problem @Hot Sauce Guy , I'll stop quoting you.
I don't view Perine as CEH replacment though, I view him as Mckinnons.
So to me it's not about how much more Perine dents him vs CEH.
jm192
Footballguy
For what it's worth, I don't think the Chiefs like CEH as a football player. He's had 70 carries each of the last 2 seasons. They gave McKinnon the passing game role when they had a 1st round rookie already on the team.
They seem to have been fine keeping him on as a 3rd running back. But I don't think anything they've done the 2 years prior suggest they want to give him the football more.
They may like him as a person. Maybe they've known about his mental health for a while, and want to support him. But I've never seen or read anything that makes me believe KC desires to get CEH on the field.
They seem to have been fine keeping him on as a 3rd running back. But I don't think anything they've done the 2 years prior suggest they want to give him the football more.
They may like him as a person. Maybe they've known about his mental health for a while, and want to support him. But I've never seen or read anything that makes me believe KC desires to get CEH on the field.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I already explained this. I don't think any RB or group of RBs in KC will impact Pacheco's role or usage. IMO, Pacheco was going to get the same workload no matter who those other players were. Their names don't matter to me. Similarly, my ceiling for Pacheco was 275-300 touches if he played 17 games. Adding Perine changes nothing for me. I have Pacheco projected for the same workload and the same fantasy production . . . and it's not out of the question Pacheco could see a little more than I assigned to him.
Other people can add whatever adjectives or descriptors as they fit. In my lexicon, nothing has happened to make "his ceiling capped," nor has his value dropped. No matter what, other guys were going to get some carries, some receptions, and some TD. The difference is, I already included that in how I valued and projected Pacheco. My position didn't change. I always saw it as "Pacheco production" and "non-Pacheco production." The "Pacheco production" column hasn't changed for me. Who gets what allocation in the "non-Pacheco production" category is what changed (and how that shakes out is pretty irrelevant to me).
Chaka
Footballguy
I guess, but McKinnon's out of the picture. Someone was always going to take some of the load and CEH was the obvious choice. He's a much better receiver than people give him credit for.
Either way I don't think Pacheco's share changed in the least in going from CEH behind him to Perine.
Pipes
Footballguy
And McKinnon is much better than Perine and Pacheco still had solid numbers with McKinnon in the backfield
Lol you don’t know that for sure unless you are in the coaches room brotha. Most feel he was going to have an uptick in catches due to his off season workouts plus what Reid said in the preseason. CEH has Ptsd so Perine was just his full in for the time being, maybe beyond. Whoever is behind him, still doesn’t change the argument a lot are
Expecting a slight up crease in catches.
I don't agree
I've beat this to death but will just finish anything I got to say by saying I just don't see how anyone can feel this way.
And it's because Perine is NOT CEH's replacement or just another guy added to the backfield. He has a specific skill set that mirrors McKinnons and more to the point he puts a serious crimp in Pachecho's hopes to be the primary passing down back, which he had a real shot of being before this signing.
If he were simply a backup, a handcuff, depth, etc,etc I would not feel this way and that is where I think everyone has it wrong with their takes about "well, of course not everyone RB plays 100% of the time".
I'm done.
Pipes
Footballguy
Wow didn’t expect this to blow up. Can’t say it any better than this.
Chaka
Footballguy
Why wasn't Perine signed before CEH stepped away?
ETA: The proper question is probably do you think the Chiefs would have signed Perine if CEH hadn't stepped away?
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Sigh - Back from the dead because I was quoted again.
To your statement:
1. No, they’re actually about the same caliber of player. In fact when the Chiefs picked up Jet, IIRC he was coming off of back to back torn ACLs with the 49ers, (whom he never played a down for) while when the Chiefs added Perine he was healthy.
2. No one said he didn’t. But people were expecting more from Pacheco based on McKinnon’s absence and no obvious replacement in the receiving game. People were seeing a ceiling of 60+ receptions for Pacheco as late as a week before the season. Projections for Pacheco were adjusted up based on it. He ascended in FF rankings. That’s a fact.
So again - seeing them bring in a guy who’s likely to see 3-5 receptions per game = 50-70 receptions that Pacheco won’t get. It’s just math.
To the straw man & slippery slope arguments:
- no one expects Perine to take over RB1
- no one expects Pacheco’s value to plummet
- no one’s said they expect Pacheco to drop to 50-50 or 65-35 or anything even remotely resembling that
- no one has said Perine would be stand-alone valuable. In fact the opposite has been said.
To the projection in this topic:
- no one claimed Pacheco would get 100% of the touches out of the backfield
- no one is “panicking” or “freaking out”.
Those are gross mischaracterizations.
But 3-5 receptions (or more) and maybe some short yardage RZ usage (as Reid has called his entire career) going to someone not named Pacheco, very likely caps Pacheco’s ceiling.
That’s it. That’s the whole ball of wax.
He’s still a low-end RB1, and should still be plenty valuable. And not one person in here said anything to the contrary.
But for a fleeting moment, FF experts and board members alike started to express their hopes and dreams for more.
Prior to the Pacheco signing and for about 72 hours, I’d bumped Pacheco slightly higher in my rankings, based on the expectation that the receiving role would grow. It was a reasonable approach, and many reasonable people seemed to be on board with that. They released Prince, CEH wasn’t practicing, no other options.
Ipso facto, it also stands to reason that when Perine signed, at the very least it clouded that receiving role picture. And realistically it seems that those hopes and dreams were dashed, leaving Pacheco with roughly the same value he had last season.
It didn’t tank him, it didn’t even drop him him out of that same round in the rankings. But it absolutely seems reasonable that it caps his ceiling.
Now, a lot of things can happen - it’s a long season. Perine is an older player. He could get hurt. Or maybe Reid will stop calling toss sweeps to the RB inside the 5 (ha ha ha ha), or maybe he’ll finally start using Pacheco for those. I’m not saying any of that is off the table. I fully concede that what I have expressed is merely my opinion on the situation, and I could be wrong. Certainly wouldn’t be the 1st time.
But without hyperbolic fallacy or projection, I don’t think it’s possible to see the Perine signing as anything other than a hit to Pacheco’s ceiling. It certainly doesn’t help his value to lose a chunk of his receptions.
Now if everyone could stop quoting me in here I’d appreciate it. I’ve written approximately 10000 more words about Pacheco or Perine than I ever cared to in one lifetime.
Ps - I sincerely hope Pacheco blows up this year and gets 80 receptions so I can win the FBG bowl, my only Pacheco share.
They signed Perine as soon as he got cut by Denver and they could. He literally said the first phone call he got after getting released was from Andy Reid(and he almost did not answer it because it was a Philly area code)
And yes, yes I do.
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jm192
Footballguy
Well, Perine was under contract for Denver.
I believe they would have signed Perine even if CEH was on the roster.
I don't think they view CEH as McKinnon. If they did, there wasn't a need for McKinnon. They re-signed McKinnon prior to the 2023 season. If they felt CEH was a capable enough pass catching back, why use up cap space to bring in a guy that relegates your current pass catching back to the bench?
Perine signed after Perine was cut. It's not like they had that option to sign him way earlier. I initially thought Reid was happy to let Pacheco do everything. After the signing, I think KC decided they would wait until after roster cuts to see who they could get for a McKinnon replacement.
Chaka
Footballguy
Okay, now I understand a little bit of the thinking.
So, healthy CEH, Perine & Pacheco = reduction for Pacheco. Good, great, wonderful and until they sign someone to replace CEH it never happened. If/when that happens I will lead the charge for Pacheco seeing a reduced workload.
What does No CEH, healthy Perine & Pacheco = for Pacheco?
IMO Pacheco is still going to be the 65%(ish+) workload guy he was always going to be and what his value of ~RB12 suggested.
So, healthy CEH, Perine & Pacheco = reduction for Pacheco. Good, great, wonderful and until they sign someone to replace CEH it never happened. If/when that happens I will lead the charge for Pacheco seeing a reduced workload.
What does No CEH, healthy Perine & Pacheco = for Pacheco?
IMO Pacheco is still going to be the 65%(ish+) workload guy he was always going to be and what his value of ~RB12 suggested.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
So all the nonsense from the Jameson Williams thread in the preseason moved over here for the regular season?
Not exactly.
I said earlier I was done here but wanted to say first the convo here has been cool, I only said I was done to not beat a dead horse.
But I came across some info this morning I wanted to pass along because it highlights why I'm concerned if Perine ultimately takes the full McKinnon role after he's been on the team more then a week and the impact on Pachecho.
First off I don't care one stinking iota about CEH. This has everything do with Pachecho's usage with someone playing the Mckinnon role.
Let me start by saying that Perine played 8 snaps on Thursday night. He ran a pass route on every single snap. Like I was saying yesterday, he's not CEH's replacment, he's McKinnon's. He's the passing down back who can be a backup if needed, in that sense I consider him a plus Mckinnon. Others can disagree but it's the basis of my stance.
But here is the impact on when McKinnon played last year vs when he did not on Pachecho.
All stats courtesy of Nathan Jahnke:
Last year Pachecho played 75% of normal early down snaps when JMC was healthy, that went up to 83% when he was out. This is the least impactful area of fantasy production, and this might be an area of a healthy CEH impacts Pachecho but this is not a usage that means a whole lot for fantasy as it's not high value touches.
These things are super impactful.
Goal line and two minute/passing down are the money downs for fantasy and this is where McKinnon hurt him, a lot.
When JMC was healthy Pachecho only played 37% of the snaps when they were within 5 yards of the goal line. That went up to 68% when Mckinnon was out.
When JMC was healthy Pachecho only played 23.5% of the two minute drill snaps and that went to 66.7% without him.
Again if you think Perine sucks and/or won't be playing a role anything like McKinnon's then this don't matter to you. But like I said for me once I Perine has been on the team longer then a few days I expet his usage to increase.
Pachecho was NOT A RB1 or to be absolutely technicall not even a RB2 in 12 team leagues in games with McKinnon. Was RB25. This is why this matters to some of us because he's being drafted to be more like a low end RB1. And he might be, I'm not here to say he will or won't, just here to say why I think signing Perine is going to make that a lot more difficult.
Chaka
Footballguy
Great breakdown, I appreciate it.
The inside the five yard numbers are interesting for sure. I never thought Pacheco was going to be a two minute guy anyway so it didn't impact my predraft valuation for this season.
Clearly the only issue I am having with the whole Perine discussion is with people who thought Pacheco was going to get top 5 RB volume. I never saw that and don't understand why anyone would have, with or without Perine. To me he has always been a low end RB1 to me (maybe RB 9-15), with or without Perine.
I always viewed it in the simplest terms: In the 10 games they played together Pacheco had 143 carries and 25 receptions. That projects to 243 carries and 49 receptions. I mean, isn't 292 touches RB1 valuation? That's roughly where I was projecting him this year, actually I was closer to 260-275 touches.
His pace without McKinnon was definitely better, it was also only a four game sample size but it put him at a 364 touch pace. If anyone was projecting him to be a 350 touch back wouldn't his valuation for this season been closer to RB3 and not RB12? I know I didn't see him there prior to Perine's signing, I just assumed Reid would cobble together that role from a combination of CEH and table scraps.
It seems to me Pacheco was always valued as RB12, with or without Perine so, I am not really concerned about some kind of massive dip from expectations. If anything I view week one as an outlier that would even up over the season regardless.
Thanks for taking the time.
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
Pacheco on crutches. What's the move? Clyde? I'm not picking up that Australian kid, it has to be someone else.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Carson Steele
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
Yup, you're right. CEH is on IR until Week 5. It's Steele and Perine going forward.
Assuming Pacheco misses time that is. I guess I'm in the Carson Steele market...
Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics
@SportMDAnalysis
#Chiefs Isiah Pacheco - Video puts high ankle and Lisfranc on table. Being emotional in locker room may weakly suggest higher severity. High risk of missing Wk 3#49ers
@SportMDAnalysis
#Chiefs Isiah Pacheco - Video puts high ankle and Lisfranc on table. Being emotional in locker room may weakly suggest higher severity. High risk of missing Wk 3#49ers
Dizzy
Footballguy
Mike Florio (I think it was) said the fibula will be examined further tomorrow.
Isiah Pacheco - injury update
Right ankle fracture Specifically the fibula bone.
This could be in 1 of 3 places Near the ankle (avulsion) At the ankle joint (most concerning) Next to the tibia/shin Sometimes this is accompanied by a high-ankle sprain.
The specific location of the fracture will determine if he needs surgery (likely) and how long he will be out.
Note, the fibula is only responsible for 15-20% of body weight, so you can walk on a fractured fibula.
Problem is it articulates/makes up the ankle joint, so it needs to be stable.
This is similar to what happened to Tank Dell in 2023, as well as Mark Andrews but he likely also had a high-ankle sprain.
Return to play could range from 4 weeks to 12-weeks (season-ending).
Right ankle fracture Specifically the fibula bone.
This could be in 1 of 3 places Near the ankle (avulsion) At the ankle joint (most concerning) Next to the tibia/shin Sometimes this is accompanied by a high-ankle sprain.
The specific location of the fracture will determine if he needs surgery (likely) and how long he will be out.
Note, the fibula is only responsible for 15-20% of body weight, so you can walk on a fractured fibula.
Problem is it articulates/makes up the ankle joint, so it needs to be stable.
This is similar to what happened to Tank Dell in 2023, as well as Mark Andrews but he likely also had a high-ankle sprain.
Return to play could range from 4 weeks to 12-weeks (season-ending).
What’s the source for this?
The bottom of that tweet says this: “Source: Mike Florio said it on SNF halftime show”
I was not watching the half time show and no other reliable source says it’s a fracture of the fibula.
Was anyone else watching this and can confirm or deny it was said?
It seems odd if Mike Florio said this that he and or other people wouldn’t have also posted about it.
Not saying it’s not true. It can be. Just seems odd.
Chaka
Footballguy
Your post reads as if it were the official diagnosis, but it's not. Is it? He's just some guy speculating.
We still don't have a diagnosis.
Yes, you might be right. Just saw it was from a verified doctor that Joe Bryant follows so thought it might have some legs.
Agreed he is speculating, I rewatched the halftime show and they mentioned the fibula but nothing that was confirmed at all, just that they will be checking it out.
Still, if it is the fibula, it is some good info... but yes, looks like it's not confirmed at all.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Tua, Kupp and Pacheco all in the same weekend for some of us
Better luck to us next year
Better luck to us next year
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Pacheco/Kupp/Mixon for one of my teams, which also has CMC.
Probably neither in anywhere near Pacheco's role. Its probably a full blown RBBC, where nobody is a more than a middling flex.
If its long-term, have to think KC adds another guy (maybe trade?) as I don't think CEH is necessarily coming back. Maybe McKinnon comes back?
Ugh. Ya, tough to say. Pacheco was running really well. Hoping this means more Mahomes as I own him everywhere.
When is KC gonna finally blow the roof off and drop 30 points? (Could see it next week in prime time, pacheco-less, in a dome)
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
-I didn't even know about Pacheco until I woke back up middle of SNF, kinda dozed off in the late games
Bad nightmare
4th&inches
Footballguy
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