Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I heard he's running for Rookie Class President now at the sock hop last night
Kansas City literally was a Superbowl contending team that trusted a 7th round rookie just a handful of years back.JCM is a sell high at this moment due to hype train. Cause everyone wants the new shiny toy.
I just don't see how a SB contending team can trust a 7th round rookie with little experience.
I do NOT doubt JCM's athleticism. I think he is in a good spot for next year and beyond.
They will want to use veterans who has NFL experience to take snap counts with Daniels. These SB windows are rare.
The coaching staff has been glazing Bill since minicamp, so I doubt it.For all we know BRob was already gonna be gone before they found out they had anything in JCM.GM "If we move on from him how much worse of a team are we?"
If I was doing a rookie draft today, I'd take him over all 3 of them. 3rd round WRs and 4th round RBs also have abysmal hit rates, and none of them managed to gain steam in camp, meanwhile Bill has been a steam engine.I mostly agree, but, depending on my team's needs, even in Dynasty, I might consider JCM ahead of Tuten, Kyle Williams or even Skattebo, all of whom have less-defined roles for this season.First 16 picks were some order of this.
Jeanty
Hunter
Tet
Hampton
Golden
Egbuka
Kaleb
Ward
Loveland
Warren
Harvey
Henderson
Judkins
Higgins
Burden
Skattebo
Kyle Williams
Tuten
I would still take all those guys ahead of "Bill"
I would take JCM anytime after all these guys depending on my team needs.
Wouldn’t that mean they’d be more likely to have already decided to move off of BRob?The coaching staff has been glazing Bill since minicamp, so I doubt it.
prior to to Brob getting traded......Rodriguez was virtually going undrafted in redraft leagues....just cause Brob leaves doesn't make him a better football player.....his opportunity increased as it moved him up the depth chart ....but the "going undrafted" type of talent is still the same....if that makes sense...IMO...his bump up the depth chart doesn't make him "screaming value"...I like JCM and am certainly interested in drafts but I think this also makes Rodriguez a screaming value. He's kind of the Invisible Man right now.It sounds like a perfect storm. Team is unhappy with their main back. Team drafts guy that should have gone about two rounds higher in the NFL Draft but had eligibility issues. Team’s other backs on rookie or ERFA contracts improve also. Veteran on cheap deal with risk is still around.
Washington hasn’t made a commitment to Bill. Doesn’t sound like anything but an opportunity. People getting over their skis should pause. They’ve been writing about this since the draft, which means they were not happy with Brian Robinson. A million ways this can go, and we’re likely just entering the uncertainty for fantasy,
Don’t count on this as being sewn up. This is exciting because of where you could get him in dynasty drafts if you were in the know. I don’t like his redraft ADP that I’m seeing. But this is fun. Let’s have fun with it.
I swear I thought I typed "RB rusher", but sometimes that mind to finger connection isn't very stable. But I do think it was fairly obvious I was talking about among RBs, and don't know how bringing up the QB helps the conversation. But I don't proof read myself well. Maybe it wasn't that obvious.FairI have no implication whatsoever.
Respectfully, no, he was not.BRob was factually the leading rusher for the team.
Jayden Daniels led the Commanders in RuYd with 891 yards.
BRob was 2nd on the team with 799
That’s fair, and I appreciate the clarification.I get the impression you think I'm saying something much different than I am and reading into it more than is there. I'm certainly not crowning jcm right now.
I mean....c'mon....I think if you asked 99% of fantasy players at the end of last season who was the incumbent or "starter" at RB for WAS.....they all would say Brob......You have to kind of take Daniels and him leading the team in rushing out of the equation....the question isn't "who is their best or leading rusher" ...it was for FF purposes (and a RB roster spot) who was their lead RB...I still take exception to calling BRob “the incumbent”.The incumbent has been cut. His
“The JAG member of the committee has been replaced because the others all offered more upside for their roles” seems like a more apt description, but for brevity sake I’ll accept “the incumbent”.
I just feel like that’s implying that BRob was more impactful than he was as a part of that committee.
Again, Daniels was their leading rusher last year. Sure, that’s an endorsement of Daniels, but it’s also kind of an indictment of BRob if he was “the starter”.
I dunno, maybe I’m being picky, but it seems like that language matters.
They weren't acting like it back in May. Probably had the seed planted and as training camp went on, Bill's performance watered that seed until it grew into trading BRobWouldn’t that mean they’d be more likely to have already decided to move off of BRob?The coaching staff has been glazing Bill since minicamp, so I doubt it.
They weren't acting like it back in May. Probably had the seed planted and as training camp went on, Bill's performance watered that seed until it grew into trading BRobWouldn’t that mean they’d be more likely to have already decided to move off of BRob?The coaching staff has been glazing Bill since minicamp, so I doubt it.
Maybe it was the plan all along? They're cautious though and confirmed their thoughts on Bill before making the move though.They weren't acting like it back in May. Probably had the seed planted and as training camp went on, Bill's performance watered that seed until it grew into trading BRobWouldn’t that mean they’d be more likely to have already decided to move off of BRob?The coaching staff has been glazing Bill since minicamp, so I doubt it.
I don’t want to throw water on it but they had insiders talking as soon as he was drafted. I think they knew he fell and thought he was better. Now showing it? They had to wait on that.
Maybe it was the plan all along? They're cautious though and confirmed their thoughts on Bill before making the move though.They weren't acting like it back in May. Probably had the seed planted and as training camp went on, Bill's performance watered that seed until it grew into trading BRobWouldn’t that mean they’d be more likely to have already decided to move off of BRob?The coaching staff has been glazing Bill since minicamp, so I doubt it.
I don’t want to throw water on it but they had insiders talking as soon as he was drafted. I think they knew he fell and thought he was better. Now showing it? They had to wait on that.
So what kind of offer would make you cash in?Maybe it was the plan all along? They're cautious though and confirmed their thoughts on Bill before making the move though.They weren't acting like it back in May. Probably had the seed planted and as training camp went on, Bill's performance watered that seed until it grew into trading BRobWouldn’t that mean they’d be more likely to have already decided to move off of BRob?The coaching staff has been glazing Bill since minicamp, so I doubt it.
I don’t want to throw water on it but they had insiders talking as soon as he was drafted. I think they knew he fell and thought he was better. Now showing it? They had to wait on that.
I think it was both. I really do. Generally you’re not making so much noise that your “insiders” report upon a possible changing of the guard before May is over. I think he fell to them, they liked the athleticism, running style, and character (he ran the Arizona scout team after being declared ineligible, which blew people away) and they were then hoping to punt salary and ineffectiveness out the door.
So what kind of offer would make you cash in?Maybe it was the plan all along? They're cautious though and confirmed their thoughts on Bill before making the move though.They weren't acting like it back in May. Probably had the seed planted and as training camp went on, Bill's performance watered that seed until it grew into trading BRobWouldn’t that mean they’d be more likely to have already decided to move off of BRob?The coaching staff has been glazing Bill since minicamp, so I doubt it.
I don’t want to throw water on it but they had insiders talking as soon as he was drafted. I think they knew he fell and thought he was better. Now showing it? They had to wait on that.
I think it was both. I really do. Generally you’re not making so much noise that your “insiders” report upon a possible changing of the guard before May is over. I think he fell to them, they liked the athleticism, running style, and character (he ran the Arizona scout team after being declared ineligible, which blew people away) and they were then hoping to punt salary and ineffectiveness out the door.
I figured that was the case. Just asking in case you had a price. I agree with your approach for sure. I see both sides (sell for profit or keep for upside) but I would also be holding to see if expectations can be met.And just by saying that you can tell I’ll sell when I think max value has been realized. But anything that I think approaches the back half of the second is a no go. I drafted Isaiah Spiller at 2.03. I mean, there wasn’t much past that. And if 2026 is lean as they say, no way,
I’m fully with you on the bolded, both parts.Anyway. I like being on this ride where I got in cheap. But I've been playing dynasty almost a quarter century and I know well nothing is certain yet. I'm not buying at his current dynasty or redraft prices, but also not just selling for any 2nd.
I figured that was the case. Just asking in case you had a price. I agree with your approach for sure. I see both sides (sell for profit or keep for upside) but I would also be holding to see if expectations can be met.And just by saying that you can tell I’ll sell when I think max value has been realized. But anything that I think approaches the back half of the second is a no go. I drafted Isaiah Spiller at 2.03. I mean, there wasn’t much past that. And if 2026 is lean as they say, no way,
Some guys man. It's just funny seeing the same one get into it with a different poster once a week lol. Neve on him though.Just use the :ignore: function — it makes things “better”.I have no implication whatsoever. BRob was factually the leading rusher for the team. I get the impression you think I'm saying something much different than I am and reading into it more than is there. I'm certainly not crowning jcm right now.Your implication that BRob was the Commanders breadwinner at RB rather than part of a committee was inaccurate. If that wasn’t your implication, then my bad - the bolded sure seemed to imply that. The Commanders leading rusher from 2024 was Daniels.There is nothing inaccurate about the framing. Unlike most late round picks, the leading rusher is suddenly out of the picture without a different replacement. That's quite a rare scenario.That framing isn’t entirely accurate considering the team in question has long used role players for early down, short yardage, and receiving.Obviously way more misses than hits, but you've got a strong signal that is already pretty rare for RBs in those rounds: the incumbent starter got moved because they liked what else they had
They liked JCM better for the role BRob, who’s been a JAG, had.
It’s not like WAS had some highly rated feature back that JCM pushed out of a job. One could argue that WAS didn’t actually have “an incumbent starter”.
I am not saying it definitively means JCM will take over, but to me it definitively refutes an argument like "how many round 6-7 guys actually hit?" We're in tny sample size territory now, so I don't think the historical odds are all that relevant.
Also, while JCM appears to have made the roster, he hasn’t actually “hit” yet. Dude hasn’t scored a single FF point, and we don’t know how he’ll be used.
I have a share. I’m excited for the potential. But let’s not go popping Champaign corks yet. If JCM turns out to be merely a cog in a 4-way machine (not even including Daniels or Deebo), then that won’t exactly be the rare seismic event you’re describing here.
As @rockaction suggested, with comments like those we’re getting out over our skis just a bit. Hey, maybe it’ll happen - I’m rooting for it. But it hasn’t happened yet.
Is it a steep cost? Most RB's in that range have warts. Most are in an RBBC to some degree. WAS seems to be showing all signs to JCM getting a first shot. So how is that price too steep? Seems like a lead RBBC guy in a projected top 5 offense is worth the 6th/7th round if you are a believer.Maybe we’ll be smart for that or maybe we’ll regret it, but that’s a steep cost.
My plan for that ROC was to take him at the 8/9 turn at 9.03, which I felt was a slight reach per ADP.I have a 14 team guillotine best ball drafting in an hour. I'm planning on taking him at 7.08. Lots of DC people in it, I doubt he'd make it back to me at 8.07, and honestly he might go before I intend to take him. I guess we'll see.
He went 15th in my rookie draft today (contract league), ahead of Skattebo, Blue and Sampson
The hard part is whether he has the GL and/or receptions upside. If he gets those parts of the offense, either/or really, could be huge value. With Daniels there, if he doesn't get those things it may not be worth starting ever.Is it a steep cost? Most RB's in that range have warts. Most are in an RBBC to some degree. WAS seems to be showing all signs to JCM getting a first shot. So how is that price too steep? Seems like a lead RBBC guy in a projected top 5 offense is worth the 6th/7th round if you are a believer.Maybe we’ll be smart for that or maybe we’ll regret it, but that’s a steep cost.
My only point of Daniel’s (and to a lesser degree Deebo) was to illustrate the committee nature of the team. It’s impactful to the run game. Maybe I’m too OCD about stuff like that but the fact that the teams leading rusher wasn’t a RB stands out to me as significant when trying to figure out the upside of a guy like JCM.mean....c'mon....I think if you asked 99% of fantasy players at the end of last season who was the incumbent or "starter" at RB for WAS.....they all would say Brob......You have to kind of take Daniels and him leading the team in rushing out of the equation
It feels steep to me compared to the WR, TE, and potentially QB I tend to target in that range.Is it a steep cost? Most RB's in that range have warts. Most are in an RBBC to some degree. WAS seems to be showing all signs to JCM getting a first shot. So how is that price too steep? Seems like a lead RBBC guy in a projected top 5 offense is worth the 6th/7th round if you are a believer.Maybe we’ll be smart for that or maybe we’ll regret it, but that’s a steep cost.
My only point of Daniel’s (and to a lesser degree Deebo) was to illustrate the committee nature of the team. It’s impactful to the run game. Maybe I’m too OCD about stuff like that but the fact that the teams leading rusher wasn’t a RB stands out to me as significant when trying to figure out the upside of a guy like JCM.mean....c'mon....I think if you asked 99% of fantasy players at the end of last season who was the incumbent or "starter" at RB for WAS.....they all would say Brob......You have to kind of take Daniels and him leading the team in rushing out of the equation
Is he part of a committee? Probably.
How big is that committee?
That’s where I was coming from with that.
I mean, the FF value trajectory of this kid seems like someone might offer you a 2026 1st for him in the next couple days.I don’t think I cash for a second
Exactly. And thank you for the illustrative example. I definitely don’t mean to rub anyone the wrong way with that kind of observation or pee on anyone’s Cheerios of excitement over their shiny new toy.You know, it seems killjoy-ish until they’re bringing in Rodriguez inside the five or when they don’t, Daniels runs an RPO that sticks in Merritt’s gut but yanks out and trots it in himself. That stuff adds up.
I mean, the FF value trajectory of this kid seems like someone might offer you a 2026 1st for him in the next couple days.I don’t think I cash for a second
Would you reject it?
Those leagues are super challenging. I don’t envy that. I’ve been invited to more than 1 salary cap league & just feel like it would cause me more aggravation than fun.I’m a contender that’s being whittled away by typical dynasty rules (I am nowhere near perfect but the league I’m in starts you fairly uphill with draft position and descending FAAB dollars and roster constraints)
Those leagues are super challenging. I don’t envy that. I’ve been invited to more than 1 salary cap league & just feel like it would cause me more aggravation than fun.I’m a contender that’s being whittled away by typical dynasty rules (I am nowhere near perfect but the league I’m in starts you fairly uphill with draft position and descending FAAB dollars and roster constraints)
Kansas City literally was a Superbowl contending team that trusted a 7th round rookie just a handful of years back.JCM is a sell high at this moment due to hype train. Cause everyone wants the new shiny toy.
I just don't see how a SB contending team can trust a 7th round rookie with little experience.
I do NOT doubt JCM's athleticism. I think he is in a good spot for next year and beyond.
They will want to use veterans who has NFL experience to take snap counts with Daniels. These SB windows are rare.
I hadn't played with this league before and the draft (still ongoing) has had some wild picks and a lot of value falling. I ended up passing on Bill in the 7th round and instead was able to still get him in the 9th.My plan for that ROC was to take him at the 8/9 turn at 9.03, which I felt was a slight reach per ADP.I have a 14 team guillotine best ball drafting in an hour. I'm planning on taking him at 7.08. Lots of DC people in it, I doubt he'd make it back to me at 8.07, and honestly he might go before I intend to take him. I guess we'll see.
He went at 7.10
So no Ekeler and no Bill playing. Rodriguez playing. HmmmmThe list:
The Washington Commanders have announced that the following players will not dress out for the preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens.
- No. 0 CB Mike Sainristil
- No. 1 WR Deebo Samuel Sr.
- No. 2 CB Marshon Lattimore
- No. 3 S Will Harris
- No. 4 LB Frankie Luvu
- No. 5 QB Jayden Daniels
- No. 17 WR Terry McLaurin
- No. 18 QB Marcus Mariota
- No. 20 S Quan Martin
- No. 24 LB Von Miller
- No. 30 RB Austin Ekeler
- No. 31 CB Jonathan Jones
- No. 32 RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- No. 35 S Percy Butler
- No. 39 S Jeremy Reaves
- No. 52 DT Javon Kinlaw
- No. 54 LB Bobby Wagner
- No. 55 DE Jacob Martin
- No. 57 LB Nick Bellore
- No. 63 C Tyler Biadasz
- No. 67 G Nick Allegretti
- No. 71 T Andrew Wylie
- No. 72 T Josh Conerly Jr.
- No. 74 G Brandon Coleman
- No. 76 G Sam Cosmi
- No. 78 T Laremy Tunsil
- No. 83 WR Jaylin Lane
- No. 85 Noah Brown
- No. 86 TE Zach Ertz
- No. 87 TE John Bates
- No. 91 DE Deatrich Wise Jr.
- No. 92 DE Dorance Armstrong
- No. 94 DT Daron Payne
Pretty solid, if a bit risky. Hard to pass on CMC at 8, AJB hammy discount is nice, too. MHj upside. Kraft is a nice value at 10.07, too.1.08 CMC
2.07 AJ Brown
3.08 JD5
4.07 MHJr
5.08 Aaron Jones
6.07 David Montgomery
7.08 Ricky Pearsall
8.07 Jayden Reed
9.08 Bill
10.07 Tucker Kraft
I have an NFFC BB coming up on Wednesday - he feels like a nice gamble in BB format. Week to week maybe difficult to depend on but I like the potential for spike games.I think he is most interesting in large field tournament formats where you can target him in a zero RB build.
Mason went in the 8th. It's a 14 teamer best ball AND a guillotine, so I'll improve quickly, and QbRbRbWrWrWrTeKD and 7 bench, no flex. In round 15 now, and I'm a bit light at WR w/ only 4 still, so I'm gonna snag 1 more.Pretty solid, if a bit risky. Hard to pass on CMC at 8, AJB hammy discount is nice, too. MHj upside. Kraft is a nice value at 10.07, too.1.08 CMC
2.07 AJ Brown
3.08 JD5
4.07 MHJr
5.08 Aaron Jones
6.07 David Montgomery
7.08 Ricky Pearsall
8.07 Jayden Reed
9.08 Bill
10.07 Tucker Kraft
Planning on taking Mason to pair with AJones?
/sidebar
None of the fantasy “experts” are truly experts. In the end, they are guessing like everyone else. Some are better than others.Was listening back to a draft by Rotowire guys from 6 days ago and one of them said when JCM was picked in round 12 "wasted pick he won't even play this year"
Oops
I took Bill at 9.04About to start a standard draft. This one is traditionally RB heavy. I'll let y'all know where Bill goes. It's likely to me in the 9th lol. Maybe 10th.
It's 12 team, No PPR, QbRbRbWrWrTeFlexKD. As such, WRs are kinda devalued. Solid RBs always go quick.
They must’ve really loved it when he went 7.10 in my ROC draft the other night. That was the Sirius draft of the week, but I don’t have Sirius.Was listening back to a draft by Rotowire guys from 6 days ago and one of them said when JCM was picked in round 12 "wasted pick he won't even play this year"
Oops
This may be true to some degree, but there a people who have more knowledge and information. It is a tough sport to project individual performance due to the physicality of the game and fact that every play/player relies on the coordination/health of 10 other guys. No other sport matches that complexity and variability imo.None of the fantasy “experts” are truly experts. In the end, they are guessing like everyone else. Some are better than others.Was listening back to a draft by Rotowire guys from 6 days ago and one of them said when JCM was picked in round 12 "wasted pick he won't even play this year"
Oops