Ilov80s
Footballguy
Why?
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RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter rockaction
- Start date
IMO Rodriguez is still virtually undraftable like he was before the BRob trade....all he did was possibly move up the depth chart but the "talent" is still the same as before the Brob trade....acting like C Rod is now some value seems on tilt to me....I really don't think anybody "realistically" thinks he has the same chance to start as JCM and ADP indicates that as does the fact that JCM sat and Crod played last game...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I mean, it’s fine - if we assume he’s going to get a similar workload as BRob, that’s flex-worthy, and he’s being drafted right about where BRob was.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Maybe. Eckler is 30 and he missed 5 games last year due to 2 concussions. I thought he should have retired in the off-season. That stuff is scary at his age but he did prove to still be a good pass catching back. As for Rodriguez, I think nothing is guaranteed with him. The Commanders cut him twice last year and no team claimed him. So I am honestly not worried about him, that doesn't happen to good players.
you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I still do not think they are done adding to the position, but we will see what happens.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It's 2025, I don't think printing off an ESPN sheet of positional rankings is really a big deal. Everyone at the draft has a cell phone and could look them up. And for those who did more research, it's an advantage in it's own way for me to see the list the less informed are working from.you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
FiredMartz
Footballguy
.........and that everyone else in the league has the same of......you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
....not happening in my 30 year old $ 425 league
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Perhaps but no way the guy they add is figured in a major part of the plan. You don't trade your lead back with the idea of in a week or 2 we will find some FA to take 30% of their role.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Everyone does their own research, it's just a sheet to cross names off of. It's year 23 of the league with almost everyone in it having been there for a decade plus. People are aware ESPN has rankings. And if they don't like those, they are also aware a million other places have them as well. I was just happy this was the first year we banned laptops so no more AI drafting for you. Or at least you have to do it off your phone. Best we could do..........and that everyone else in the league has the same of......you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Considering it’s ESPN, one might suggest this is more of a hindrance to your leaguemates.It's 2025, I don't think printing off an ESPN sheet of positional rankings is really a big deal. Everyone at the draft has a cell phone and could look them up. And for those who did more research, it's an advantage in it's own way for me to see the list the less informed are working from.you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
VaTerp
Footballguy
All local reporting is that they really like what they have in Bill, Ekeler, Crod, and McNichols.
It’s a nice mix of between the tackles, 3rd down, pass protection and special teams with McNichols.
Anything can happen but I’d be SHOCKED if they added another RB before the opener.
exactly....so let them do it themselves....It's 2025, I don't think printing off an ESPN sheet of positional rankings is really a big deal. Everyone at the draft has a cell phone and could look them up. And for those who did more research, it's an advantage in it's own way for me to see the list the less informed are working from.you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
I would maybe be ok with a list of individual rosters for all the teams....but nothing that involves "rankings"...Everyone does their own research, it's just a sheet to cross names off of. It's year 23 of the league with almost everyone in it having been there for a decade plus. People are aware ESPN has rankings. And if they don't like those, they are also aware a million other places have them as well. I was just happy this was the first year we banned laptops so no more AI drafting for you. Or at least you have to do it off your phone. Best we could do..........and that everyone else in the league has the same of......you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
They also have Deebo, who might be the best RB of that bunch.
It's one thing for Bill to have earned a role on opening day. It's another thing to keep it. Seventh round rookies are no sure thing.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It's just a couple grand on the line, not a big deal amongst life long friends. It's really just a way to make sure the draft moves at a good pace and everyone has fun. The same people who don't put in the work, still don't do well because its 2025 and its not about having the info, it's about knowing what to do with it.exactly....so let them do it themselves....It's 2025, I don't think printing off an ESPN sheet of positional rankings is really a big deal. Everyone at the draft has a cell phone and could look them up. And for those who did more research, it's an advantage in it's own way for me to see the list the less informed are working from.you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Good point on Deebo and one I haven't heard anyone bring up. At this point in his career, I would think teams would really really be shy about giving him carries but who knows.
He had 15 carries in the final 4 games last year. Seems like he's been around forever, but this is only his 7th season. I haven't heard mention of Wash using him at RB, and it wouldn't be much, but the potential is there.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Like you you said, we are talking like 3-4 times a game but that does add up when we are talking about a backfield already divided a few ways. It might only be his 7th year but he's had a rougher 7 years than most WRs in terms of punishment and contact. But yeah, it is another thing to consider that I had not before.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well kudos on you for sure and thanks for all you contribute. But you're definitely not responsible for the quality and function of *my* radar. That **** is on me.
Truthfully in March and April I was thinking ok there are like 20 rookie RBs that sound like they could be legit. But hey that is just me lamenting my one dynasty share out of 7 leagues total (that's all I have nowadays).
In redraft and BB it's a different story. Been grabbing him since early June and have a pretty big advantage vs most of the field in the tourneys. The big redraft tourneys where he went undrafted, however... the week 1 waiver wire should be fun. As it always is.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I haven't started too many threads and it isn't necessarily because I'm a huge believer if I do. But Tahj Brooks and Jerome Ford were mine. I had done a couple write-ups when I was working for that FF outfit a while back and so I dove into some names that were assigned to me. I *might* have started the thread on Alec Pierce since he caught my attention when I was scouting Ridder. Michael Pittman might have been mine but only because I was first. He wasn't any kind of sleeper or anything.
rockaction
Footballguy
Nice. I've always liked Jerome Ford and don't know enough about Brooks other than he seems to be next man up in Cinci so he's real interesting. I would ding him for age (just compared him and Sampson for some reason the other day) but COVID has messed everything up so badly that I don't think we can get too worked up about that in a negative way until its effects on anybody affected has run its course (next year or maybe even '27).
dgreen
Footballguy
Last year, they usually only dressed 3 RBs each week. I don't think they feel the need to add anything at the position.
VaTerp
Footballguy
The preseason MNF crew asked Kliff about using Deebo as RB like in his SF days and that response was something to the effect of, "not so much but we will be creative in getting him the ball." Of course the first play from scrimmage was a jet sweep to Deebo for 19 yards.
He's not gonna be lined up in the backfield much like his prime SF days but that jet sweep action will likely be in the gameplan every week.
B. Rob had 187 carries last year so assuming a similar number of running plays this season, those carries have to go somewhere. The coaches clearly like JCM so he will get some carries. How much depends on how effective he and the offense are in addition to game scripts, etc.
The point I was making in my original response here was that they are NOT looking to add another RB and they feel good about the RB room and the versatility and potential production they have now. When you add in the additional factor of guys like Deebo and even Jaylin Lane where they want to get the ball in their hands on jet sweeps, bubble screens, and other short passes that are extensions of the run game, the need to add another traditional RB is less. Not to mention that their leading rusher last year was the QB.
They also really like CRod who doesnt get any love here and is unlikely to be rosterable in FF. But every time his number is called he just produces. And I believe his advanced metrics are pretty good as well.
Back to JCM/Bill. I've liked his talent since we drafted him. I think he is a much better fit for this offense than BRob and adds an element to the run game that this team lacked last year. For FF, I do think it's getting to the point that he is a bit overvalued simply b/c I don't know if he is going to consistently get the volume needed to deliver on where he has crept up in late draft boards.
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Depends on the level of people in the league. I have done that before for novice players that are just getting into it but that has always been in low dollar leagues (like $50 or less). It's much better to have a competitive league so if I can help that happen with novice players to make the league more balanced it's in everyone's best interest.
dgreen
Footballguy
Agree. It seems like a situation to stay away from. Just too many options, especially with Daniels and Deebo taking carries, without any of the RBs being a true standout. Out of all of them, though, JCM is the one with the best chance to take control and be a star...but I certainly wouldn't bet on it quite yet.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yep, I like it. I can see what people are all looking at. I cross off the guys I refuse to draft, star the guys I like and do my thing. Every online draft platform has a BPA list or player rankings list. Are we saying all online drafts are BS and coddling players?Considering it’s ESPN, one might suggest this is more of a hindrance to your leaguemates.It's 2025, I don't think printing off an ESPN sheet of positional rankings is really a big deal. Everyone at the draft has a cell phone and could look them up. And for those who did more research, it's an advantage in it's own way for me to see the list the less informed are working from.you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
barackdhouse
Footballguy
JCM
11-15 carries per game
2-4 targets with 1-3 catches for 5-15 yards
EOS 205/1050/5 with 18/150/2 and finishes ~RB22-26
Ekeler
2-4 carries per game
4-7 targets with 3-5 catches for 20-50 yards
EOS 55/220/2 with 40/250/4 and finishes ~RB30-36
Rodriguez
6-10 carries per game
1-3 targets with 0-1 catch for 0-8 yards
EOS 95/450/6 with 10/50/1 and finishes ~RB28-32
Other RBs make up some small proportional remainder.
But raise your hand if you think Ekeler plays 17 games? Ok that was loaded, how about 10 games? There is room here for JCM to have 20+ carry games. What if his "between the 20s work" includes 4 or 5 targets throughout the game. Dude can be a league winner. What happens if Washington is blowing a team away in the second half? Honestly the tea leaves I'm reading say he gets fed the rock a lot and my projections here are for his floor.
If another waiver RB comes into this backfield, they're just going to be another JAG that threatens a backup role here. My biggest fear remains that WAS might think Ekeler can handle 10+ carries and be the lead guy. I think they know better but otherwise, folks, JCM is leading this thing.
11-15 carries per game
2-4 targets with 1-3 catches for 5-15 yards
EOS 205/1050/5 with 18/150/2 and finishes ~RB22-26
Ekeler
2-4 carries per game
4-7 targets with 3-5 catches for 20-50 yards
EOS 55/220/2 with 40/250/4 and finishes ~RB30-36
Rodriguez
6-10 carries per game
1-3 targets with 0-1 catch for 0-8 yards
EOS 95/450/6 with 10/50/1 and finishes ~RB28-32
Other RBs make up some small proportional remainder.
But raise your hand if you think Ekeler plays 17 games? Ok that was loaded, how about 10 games? There is room here for JCM to have 20+ carry games. What if his "between the 20s work" includes 4 or 5 targets throughout the game. Dude can be a league winner. What happens if Washington is blowing a team away in the second half? Honestly the tea leaves I'm reading say he gets fed the rock a lot and my projections here are for his floor.
If another waiver RB comes into this backfield, they're just going to be another JAG that threatens a backup role here. My biggest fear remains that WAS might think Ekeler can handle 10+ carries and be the lead guy. I think they know better but otherwise, folks, JCM is leading this thing.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ll say it. I been sayin it for years. lol
dgreen
Footballguy
The midpoint of each of those projections is a total of 24 RB carries per game. Last year they were around 20.5, I believe, so I think that’s a bit high. But if things could be different this year. I actually wonder if they are going to intentionally be more run-heavy this year. Game situations are going to dictate a lot.
fatness
Footballguy
Which brings it back to how well the Washington defense plays. Right now I think they'll allow a lot of points, which points to more passing when the Commanders' offense is on the field. But if, for some reason, their defense plays well I think all the Washington rushing numbers go up considerably.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
WAS only threw the ball on 52% of plays last year. Which was 26th in the NFL. So relative to the NFL they were run heavy last year. And the D was fairly bad. In contrast, Rivera's last year, they threw the ball 66% of the time.
One of the RBs will be worth a fantasy starting spot. Probably CRod. But it's hard to predict right now.
One of the RBs will be worth a fantasy starting spot. Probably CRod. But it's hard to predict right now.
If they limit Ekeler to around 20 snaps and under 10 touches, he has a strong chance at 17 games.
fatness
Footballguy
see that’s the thing…in FF “I wouldn’t bet on quite yet” doesn’t fly…you can’t wait and see…he isn’t going to be available on the WW…
VaTerp
Footballguy
Yeah, they didn't have any RBs on the practice squad so I like this signing. More than solid at Michigan and in the pre-season. Good injury insurance.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
In the early days of our draft I would bring a couple of old draft magazines from years past and leave them where others could use them. I was always trying to be helpful that way.Considering it’s ESPN, one might suggest this is more of a hindrance to your leaguemates.It's 2025, I don't think printing off an ESPN sheet of positional rankings is really a big deal. Everyone at the draft has a cell phone and could look them up. And for those who did more research, it's an advantage in it's own way for me to see the list the less informed are working from.you don't do other people's draft prep for them.....it undercuts those that did their own research and put the time in....many of those guys that took the sheet from the commish may not have even known who JCM was....and maybe still didn't when they picked him and struggled to say his name....but now they just pick him cause he is the next highest ranked guy on a sheet that was given to them....
That's a great point. The dynamics of the market with their being only 1 version effectively of the player and multiple "buyers" creating demand, waiting often means passing.
It's an interesting dynamic.
It's similar when we talk about guys like Joe Mixon. Pushing him way down the list is almost like removing him completely from the lists as the effective outcome is you won't be drafting him.
cheese
Footballguy
What's even more unusual is the range of where he goes. In home leagues right now, it's anyone's guess if you can get him free in the 11th round or if he gets at the rds3-5 range or anywhere in between. I've seen guys skyrocket over a change in role, but not many cases where a guy might go in the 3rd or 12th tonight.
Exactly! He’s either being drafted as Clinton Portis or Roy Helu and everything in between!
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Donovan Edwards is not a threat to anyone. One of the most disappointing players I can ever remember following at Michigan. He's the equivalent of the baseball player who hits a 420 foot grand slam in the 9th and makes you think he's the next Sammy Sosa only to strikeout in his next 20 plate appearances swinging at pitches in the dirt.
dgreen
Footballguy
Yep. And when I said "I certainly wouldn't bet on it quite yet", that's basically saying "I accept that I won't be drafting him if other owners are more confident about him or are willing to take a bigger risk than I am." That's just the way it is. When preparing for a draft, you not only have to determine your own projections, you have to make some educated guesses where other owners might value someone.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
"Now there's a name I haven't heard in a long time..."
VaTerp
Footballguy
He's literally practice squad fodder. Don't think anyone thinks he's a threat to anything.
I figured Evan Royster would be too much of a deep cut, even in this forum lol
barackdhouse
Footballguy
100%. It's like saying I wouldn't bet on this poker hand before the flop - until I see the turn and the river. At some point you have to actually *place* the bet. But if you're shy and shy and then that river reveals gin... it may be too late to put a bunch of chips in. No action left.
There is no wait and see. We throw the ball to where we think the receiver is going to be. If we don't think they can catch it we throw elsewhere. But we must throw. Throwing elsewhere *is* placing a bet.
In other words to say one wouldn't bet on it just yet is to say one would bet against it right now. However, this analogy breaks down in the idea that there is minimal, if any, risk in picking a different player (or folding the hand preflop). Totally fine to wait for what you think is a better bet. With antes and blinds it isn't unlike the way a snake draft unfolds and how you *must* make bets at some point.
dgreen
Footballguy
Just for clarification, I was using "bet on" in contrast to "bet against", rather than in contrast to "not bet at all". I think you both make good points that passing on a player with pick X is placing a bet on their possible availability later. The way I'm thinking about it, "wait and see" only ceases to exist when someone else selects that player. As long as the player is still available, we are all waiting and seeing what other owners are going to do.
In round one, all owners are placing their bet that JCM will be available in round 2. According to this thread, that's likely true through about round 5 and then you'll have some people start to bet against his availability the next time they pick and have to determine if they value him enough to pick him or risk losing out on him. This theoretically happens with every pick and every player.
I always liked picking in the 11/2 slot. If I'm picking 1.11 and 2.02, it's not all that difficult to try and determine what the next guy will do at the turn. I can make my 1.11 pick based on who I think will still be available at 2.02.
