RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS (24 Viewers)

[rockaction]

That’s how we get threads like this started in March. One infers.

Sure, we can infer. One might also glean.

We are speculating on motive & potential usage though. As yet no inference can be drawn for how WAS will be using JCM, so it’s premature to anoint him.

Indeed. We shouldn’t. If you asked me, I’d say it is a committee unless he seizes the opportunity. History would tell us that it’s the rookie making noise that will eventually be the lead back, but history only works for the chicken until the day the farmer gets hungry.

 

[Capella]

How often does this work? Where a little known UDFA or 7th round guy is suddenly getting way over drafted and then it actually pays off?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

History would tell us that it’s the rookie making noise that will eventually be the lead back

Unless of course that rookie making noise happens to be on a team that has historically used RBBC.

I think we are mostly on the same page here though.

 

[rockaction]

How often does this work? Where a little known UDFA or 7th round guy is suddenly getting way over drafted and then it actually pays off?

Don’t overdraft him. There isn’t much of a success rate because the success rate of all of 5th Round or lower is minuscule. The hit rate is non-existent. Now look at the things that have already happened. The incumbent has been cut. His competitors all have lower draft capital or were 6th-round picks. Unless they make a trade, he’s got the second-highest draft capital there. Ekeler is living proof of a successful UDFA that beat out a first-round pick at one point in his career. I wouldn’t have bet on it before, but there’s been a loud drumbeat for this particular guy and he went to the perfect particular team.

I get you. I won’t overdraft him. But I can’t look objectively at those things happening and say it’s nothing.

 

[socrates]

First 16 picks were some order of this.

Jeanty
Hunter
Tet
Hampton
Golden
Egbuka
Kaleb
Ward
Loveland
Warren
Harvey
Henderson
Judkins
Higgins
Burden
Skattebo
Kyle Williams
Tuten

I would still take all those guys ahead of "Bill"

I would take JCM anytime after all these guys depending on my team needs.

I mostly agree, but, depending on my team's needs, even in Dynasty, I might consider JCM ahead of Tuten, Kyle Williams or even Skattebo, all of whom have less-defined roles for this season.

 

[rockaction]

I think you pump the brakes and allow for possibilities. I think there are things that have to happen in order for a back-end pick to have a chance and those things are significant and they have happened. They didn’t happen by chance, and we don’t fully know how much JCM is responsible for them. They are necessary but not sufficient conditions that have been met. But they are important.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The incumbent has been cut. His

I still take exception to calling BRob “the incumbent”.

“The JAG member of the committee has been replaced because the others all offered more upside for their roles” seems like a more apt description, but for brevity sake I’ll accept “the incumbent”.

I just feel like that’s implying that BRob was more impactful than he was as a part of that committee.

Again, Daniels was their leading rusher last year. Sure, that’s an endorsement of Daniels, but it’s also kind of an indictment of BRob if he was “the starter”.

I dunno, maybe I’m being picky, but it seems like that language matters.

 

[Capella]

How often does this work? Where a little known UDFA or 7th round guy is suddenly getting way over drafted and then it actually pays off?

Don’t overdraft him. There isn’t much of a success rate because the success rate of all of 5th Round or lower is minuscule. The hit rate is non-existent. Now look at the things that have already happened. The incumbent has been cut. His competitors all have lower draft capital or were 6th-round picks. Unless they make a trade, he’s got the second-highest draft capital there. Ekeler is living proof of a successful UDFA that beat out a first-round pick at one point in his career. I wouldn’t have bet on it before, but there’s been a loud drumbeat for this particular guy and he went to the perfect particular team.

I get you. I won’t overdraft him. But I can’t look objectively at those things happening and say it’s nothing.

I’m not saying he’s nothing but I saw a mock yesterday where he went round 7, early. That surprised me.

 

[rockaction]

The incumbent has been cut. His

I still take exception to calling BRob “the incumbent”.

“The JAG member of the committee has been replaced because the others all offered more upside for their roles” seems like a more apt description, but for brevity sake I’ll accept “the incumbent”.

I just feel like that’s implying that BRob was more impactful than he was as a part of that committee.

Again, Daniels was their leading rusher last year. Sure, that’s an endorsement of Daniels, but it’s also kind of an indictment of BRob if he was “the starter”.

I dunno, maybe I’m being picky, but it seems like that language matters.

Everyone from Ian Rapoport to the New York Times to NFL.com calls him the starter. It’s all over the place.

 

[rockaction]

How often does this work? Where a little known UDFA or 7th round guy is suddenly getting way over drafted and then it actually pays off?

Don’t overdraft him. There isn’t much of a success rate because the success rate of all of 5th Round or lower is minuscule. The hit rate is non-existent. Now look at the things that have already happened. The incumbent has been cut. His competitors all have lower draft capital or were 6th-round picks. Unless they make a trade, he’s got the second-highest draft capital there. Ekeler is living proof of a successful UDFA that beat out a first-round pick at one point in his career. I wouldn’t have bet on it before, but there’s been a loud drumbeat for this particular guy and he went to the perfect particular team.

I get you. I won’t overdraft him. But I can’t look objectively at those things happening and say it’s nothing.

I’m not saying he’s nothing but I saw a mock yesterday where he went round 7, early. That surprised me.

Agreed. I’m not banging that drum and you and Hot Sauce Guy are wise to pump the brakes. I started this thread with a specific thought and audience in mind. Dynasty drafters with rookie drafts who could grab him in the 5th or 6th round of those drafts. That’s it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Everyone from Ian Rapoport to the New York Times to NFL.com calls him the starter. It’s all over the place.

I believe it’s a misnomer. But maybe it’s just me.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Agreed. I’m not banging that drum and you and Hot Sauce Guy are wise to pump the brakes. I started this thread with a specific thought and audience in mind. Dynasty drafters with rookie drafts who could grab him in the 5th or 6th round of those drafts. That’s it.

And I’m appreciative - this thread is why I moved up in round 17 of a start-up to take hm.

Great lottery ticket who, so far, seems to be defying the odds.

 

[KellysHeroes]

How often does this work? Where a little known UDFA or 7th round guy is suddenly getting way over drafted and then it actually pays off?

Don’t overdraft him. There isn’t much of a success rate because the success rate of all of 5th Round or lower is minuscule. The hit rate is non-existent. Now look at the things that have already happened. The incumbent has been cut. His competitors all have lower draft capital or were 6th-round picks. Unless they make a trade, he’s got the second-highest draft capital there. Ekeler is living proof of a successful UDFA that beat out a first-round pick at one point in his career. I wouldn’t have bet on it before, but there’s been a loud drumbeat for this particular guy and he went to the perfect particular team.

I get you. I won’t overdraft him. But I can’t look objectively at those things happening and say it’s nothing.

Yeah, no... its real and is exactly what KC dud with Pacheco. The kid came in out of no where and impressed so much that not only did take the #1 guy's spot... they felt it would be best to send him away. Merritt would be on my board roughly after Golden and in most of my drafts thats usually where the TEs/Ward/Judkins slides in. You can have the Skattabo tier but im taking this guy.

 

[FarFromHome]

GM "If we move on from him how much worse of a team are we?"

COACH "I doubt we will even notice really."

GM "10-4."

I think you’re giving this awfully short shrift. We rarely see teams dump their lead back in training camp. I would split the difference between the pessimist and optimist. 5th Round - UDFAs rarely work out, but you don’t hear often of a dumped incumbent. That should really be the analogous condition you’re looking to compare to this one. You can’t take the success rate of a low draft pick without considering the very drastic reality of a coach and GM cutting their main back two weeks before the season. Right now WAS has a UDFA, another UDFA, a sixth-rounder, and a seventh-rounder. Who do you bet on then?

I hear ya. Two months ago when your looking at the all the RBs in the league, Robinson might have been at 35? 40? Lower? I guess my point is, that in my opinion, he isn't a RB that moves the needle much. This isn't the 80s. In today's NFL landscape, releasing or trading a RB of his caliber isn't a big deal to me. Now if the Eagles released Barkley that seems like something. Looking back when the season ends id guess ZERO people in the front office will say, "Imagine if we just kept Robinson." All my opinion of course and reserve the right to change that opinion with advice from my counsel. Ha ha

 

[rockaction]

Everyone from Ian Rapoport to the New York Times to NFL.com calls him the starter. It’s all over the place.

I believe it’s a misnomer. But maybe it’s just me.

I think you’ve got a decent case for your assertion, actually. It’s just not the common narrative and it’s not a slam dunk. It’s colorable like everything else in this situation.

 

[ponchsox]

Bill and Ekeler aren’t playing in today’s preseason game. Rodriguez is.

 

[rockaction]

GM "If we move on from him how much worse of a team are we?"

COACH "I doubt we will even notice really."

GM "10-4."

I think you’re giving this awfully short shrift. We rarely see teams dump their lead back in training camp. I would split the difference between the pessimist and optimist. 5th Round - UDFAs rarely work out, but you don’t hear often of a dumped incumbent. That should really be the analogous condition you’re looking to compare to this one. You can’t take the success rate of a low draft pick without considering the very drastic reality of a coach and GM cutting their main back two weeks before the season. Right now WAS has a UDFA, another UDFA, a sixth-rounder, and a seventh-rounder. Who do you bet on then?

I hear ya. Two months ago when your looking at the all the RBs in the league, Robinson might have been at 35? 40? Lower? I guess my point is, that in my opinion, he isn't a RB that moves the needle much. This isn't the 80s. In today's NFL landscape, releasing or trading a RB of his caliber isn't a big deal to me. Now if the Eagles released Barkley that seems like something. Looking back when the season ends id guess ZERO people in the front office will say, "Imagine if we just kept Robinson." All my opinion of course and reserve the right to change that opinion with advice from my counsel. Ha ha

I actually want to cede your point but Robinson would not have been ranked that low nor do these guys get cut with two weeks left in the preseason often. It actually almost never happens.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Everyone from Ian Rapoport to the New York Times to NFL.com calls him the starter. It’s all over the place.

I believe it’s a misnomer. But maybe it’s just me.

Hes going to get the most touches if he stays healthy. Ekeler has very little burst left, Rodriguez and McNichols been there for yrs and didn't impress. Its Merritt show

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

is exactly what KC dud with Pacheco. The kid came in out of no where and impressed so much that not only did take the #1 guy's spot

From… CEH?

Low bar.

 

[rockaction]

Agreed. I’m not banging that drum and you and Hot Sauce Guy are wise to pump the brakes. I started this thread with a specific thought and audience in mind. Dynasty drafters with rookie drafts who could grab him in the 5th or 6th round of those drafts. That’s it.

And I’m appreciative - this thread is why I moved up in round 17 of a start-up to take hm.

Great lottery ticket who, so far, seems to be defying the odds.

Thanks! Not looking for back pats—I’m just trying to explain how I can be bullish but also am pumping brakes. It’s a long process with a bunch of hurdles. I’ve said it from the jump. Each hurdle or test passed increases the probability of it happening. It still is no sure thing. And even if he gets the call, he might not be good enough to hold the job.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Hes going to get the most touches if he stays healthy

I’ll take “things we definitely do not know yet” for $500, Alex!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

how I can be bullish but also am pumping brakes

That has been exactly my position for the last 2 pages+

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This isn't the 80s. In today's NFL landscape, releasing or trading a RB of his caliber isn't a big deal to me

This exactly, and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll add that WAS is a team that has consistently employed a RBBC. And Daniels. And now Deebo also.

BRob filled a role, as did Eke, as do Rodriguez & McNichols.

To continue my history of terrible analogies, the Commanders changed a tire on the car. They didn’t replace the car.

 

[FarFromHome]

I actually want to cede your point but Robinson would not have been ranked that low

And this is prolly where we moderately disagree. If I was a coach building a team, when I glance at all NFL rbs, I see an easy 30 I'd no question take over Robinson. Then we get into that Charbs, Bigsby, Stevenson, Braelon, Ray Davis. Hell Allgeier. Down he goes. Complete agreement that the timing is weird. Is it simply money? Is the guy just a d1ckhead? Bad in locker room? Maybe Jayden doesn't like him? I have no idea. My point is I can't imagine anyone in the front office losing sleep on this transaction. Good debate though buddy I

 

[ponchsox]

Commanders announce 33 players will not dress out vs. Ravens

 

[ffmail4me]

Commanders announce 33 players will not dress out vs. Ravens

Assuming it’s not injury related, happy to see Lane on this list. Just a hunch he’s gonna be a bigger part of our offense than most people think.

 

[GroveDiesel]

7th round is definitely way too high for him, but with a totally unsettled backfield and last year’s highest usage RB just getting traded, at some point it becomes worth the risk to take him in the hopes that he gets the bulk of the work. The RB position is pretty thin, so rolling the dice in the late mid rounds on a guy who has a legitimate track to the #1 RB on what should be a good offense is not the worst gamble.

 

[massraider]

I’m not saying he’s nothing but I saw a mock yesterday where he went round 7, early. That surprised me.

Yep.

He's on the list of late round dynasty 'wins' right now. Ayomanor, Thornton, Horton, TeSlaa, Monangai. All guys that would be drafted higher if rookie drafts happened all over again.

I'm jealous of a dynasty owner who has this guy on his roster. Some redraft owner who has him as his 3rd back? No thanks.

 

[ffmail4me]

if he breaks out like I believe he will, I’ll be changing my fantasy team names to “Big Bad Bill is sweet William now”

 

[barackdhouse]

Doesn’t sound like anything but an opportunity.

That's all I ever look for in these kinds of guys. He's going to get chances.

A million ways this can go, and we’re likely just entering the uncertainty for fantasy,

Well I'd put it in the single digits actually. There are maybe 4 or 5 ways this can go.

I'd settle out of court somewhere in the middle between a million and 4 and call it around 9. But at least 3 of those are JCM putting up FF points that don't lose matchups. Maybe 3 more where he wins leagues and 3 more where he faceplants relative to present ADP but probably doesn't hurt early drafters much.

I'm just being silly because obviously there are all kinds of permutations. Injuries, drunken Friday nights, more FA pickups to come for WAS, is McLaurin signed yet? 1 is where Daniels gets hurt and they start pounding the crap out of the rock.

As for the uncertainty... I mean that's what we do. We read tea leaves and possess varying degrees of risk tolerance. Honestly don't know how high I'd take JCM today. I'm still letting dust settle but somewhere around 8 or 9 I'm still good. But there just aren't names in that area that don't have mad uncertainty. Perhaps a couple and that's why we study it. But he isn't one of them. Other than the certainty (in my mind) that he will get chances and that this opportunity exists.

 

[barackdhouse]

That’s how we get threads like this started in March. One infers.

Sure, we can infer. One might also glean.

We are speculating on motive & potential usage though. As yet no inference can be drawn for how WAS will be using JCM, so it’s premature to anoint him.

but that's what we do. we infer, we speculate. so as to come as close to an informed decision as possible. in a context where it is impossible, but we do our best. it isn't anointing it's just calling it as we see it. and there is nothing wrong with it. it gets tested once the season starts.

i've never understood the aversion to doing so

 

[fatness]

Commanders announce 33 players will not dress out vs. Ravens

The list:

The Washington Commanders have announced that the following players will not dress out for the preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens.

• No. 0 CB Mike Sainristil
• No. 1 WR Deebo Samuel Sr.
• No. 2 CB Marshon Lattimore
• No. 3 S Will Harris
• No. 4 LB Frankie Luvu
• No. 5 QB Jayden Daniels
• No. 17 WR Terry McLaurin
• No. 18 QB Marcus Mariota
• No. 20 S Quan Martin
• No. 24 LB Von Miller
• No. 30 RB Austin Ekeler
• No. 31 CB Jonathan Jones
• No. 32 RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt
• No. 35 S Percy Butler
• No. 39 S Jeremy Reaves
• No. 52 DT Javon Kinlaw
• No. 54 LB Bobby Wagner
• No. 55 DE Jacob Martin
• No. 57 LB Nick Bellore
• No. 63 C Tyler Biadasz
• No. 67 G Nick Allegretti
• No. 71 T Andrew Wylie
• No. 72 T Josh Conerly Jr.
• No. 74 G Brandon Coleman
• No. 76 G Sam Cosmi
• No. 78 T Laremy Tunsil
• No. 83 WR Jaylin Lane
• No. 85 Noah Brown
• No. 86 TE Zach Ertz
• No. 87 TE John Bates
• No. 91 DE Deatrich Wise Jr.
• No. 92 DE Dorance Armstrong
• No. 94 DT Daron Payne

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

but that's what we do. we infer, we speculate. so as to come as close to an informed decision as possible. in a context where it is impossible, but we do our best. it isn't anointing it's just calling it as we see it. and there is nothing wrong with it. it gets tested once the season starts.

i've never understood the aversion to doing so

I don’t disagree.

But there are some who are anointing. That’s all I took exception to. “JCM will lead the team in touches” is the example of a definitive statement that we do not know to be true. IMO, that’s wildly premature.

I have no issues drawing inference - I do it all the time. You’re correct that we all do. We make the best we can with the information we have. I have no aversion to that.

Context matters.

Like everyone else I hope he becomes the man. The roster I have him on could use it. At the moment I’m not convinced he’s more than a part of a committee. The rest I’m willing to wait and see on - he survived roster cuts on my magical foozeball team - more than I can say about 7 other dudes I was once high on.

Baby steps.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The list:

I’m shocked, SHOCKED to see TMc on that list.

Well not that shocked.
/Futurama

 

[barackdhouse]

Commanders announce 33 players will not dress out vs. Ravens

The list:

The Washington Commanders have announced that the following players will not dress out for the preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens.

• No. 1 WR Deebo Samuel Sr.
• No. 5 QB Jayden Daniels
• No. 17 WR Terry McLaurin
• No. 30 RB Austin Ekeler
• No. 32 RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt
• No. 83 WR Jaylin Lane
• No. 85 Noah Brown

hmmm and do these tea leaves mean anything to folks? This is a special leaf. It comes only once a year and is on the morn of preseason gameday 3.

All seriousness I'm trying to grab as much Lane and Brown as I can. Only as of lately though.

 

[msudaisy26]

The incumbent has been cut. His

I still take exception to calling BRob “the incumbent”.

“The JAG member of the committee has been replaced because the others all offered more upside for their roles” seems like a more apt description, but for brevity sake I’ll accept “the incumbent”.

I just feel like that’s implying that BRob was more impactful than he was as a part of that committee.

Again, Daniels was their leading rusher last year. Sure, that’s an endorsement of Daniels, but it’s also kind of an indictment of BRob if he was “the starter”.

I dunno, maybe I’m being picky, but it seems like that language matters.

Everyone from Ian Rapoport to the New York Times to NFL.com calls him the starter. It’s all over the place.

I think he is the starter, but I also think Eckler is getting all passing down and no huddle work and to a lesser extent that Rodriguez is the goal line guy. In best ball he is fine, but in regular leagues that sounds like a nightmare anytime before pick 120.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm trying to grab as much Lane and Brown as I can. Only as of lately though.

I’ve been eyeballing those dudes as well. I couldn’t pull the trigger in a couple drafts because I couldn’t shake the feeling that if TMc signed they’d become irrelevant.

But that was weeks ago, and TMc still hasn’t signed, so…

 

[barackdhouse]

but that's what we do. we infer, we speculate. so as to come as close to an informed decision as possible. in a context where it is impossible, but we do our best. it isn't anointing it's just calling it as we see it. and there is nothing wrong with it. it gets tested once the season starts.

i've never understood the aversion to doing so

I don’t disagree.

But there are some who are anointing. That’s all I took exception to. “JCM will lead the team in touches” is the example of a definitive statement that we do not know to be true. IMO, that’s wildly premature.

No. That statement is just someone calling their shot. Why criticise them for doing so. Does it REALLY make a difference if they typed the words "I think" or "I foresee" before "JCM will lead the team in touches"

It's incredibly pedantic and it gets tiresome. Let people make their predictions FFS. So what if they are emphatic about it.

It isn't premature to make a call when drafts are happening as we speak. It's a requirement. And whether you're willing to admit it or not you're doing EXACTLY THE SAME THING but just in the opposite direction. You're making a call. Yet you seem to accuse other(s) for arguing in bad faith. **** that. To negatively accuse someone who is literally by definition making a prediction, that they are stating an opinion and not fact... is a logical fallacy and weird. Because no **** it's a prediction and an opinion. In other news the sky is blue and water is wet. They're talking about how they see the future.

Sorry but there are soooo many people around here that need to figure this out.

 

[CalBear]

I have a question for dynasty purposes, when was the last time a 6 or 7 round rb hit and lasted for more than a year or two? Arian Foster?

There was that guy who played in Denver, what was his name...

For every Terrell Davis, there are 10 James Robinsons.

Of course TD's success doesn't predict Croskey-Merritt's success. And a sixth-round NFL pick, all else being equal, is less likely to succeed than a first-round NFL pick. But most sixth-round picks don't get the opportunity Croskey-Merritt is getting, and don't have as much going for them in terms of talent. It's an interesting situation.

 

[rockaction]

As for the uncertainty... I mean that's what we do. We read tea leaves and possess varying degrees of risk tolerance. Honestly don't know how high I'd take JCM today. I'm still letting dust settle but somewhere around 8 or 9 I'm still good. But there just aren't names in that area that don't have mad uncertainty. Perhaps a couple and that's why we study it. But he isn't one of them. Other than the certainty (in my mind) that he will get chances and that this opportunity exists.

Oh, it’s absolutely what we do. It’s why we spend nearly an hour trying to find Big 12 Pro Day results in March because we saw some things that popped off the page.

The reason I say things will be uncertain is because there are a few more hurdles to clear before we can reach a temporary summit from which we must descend and then attempt to ascend again the next week.

This game and social space can be weird. Everything gets really binary in a non-binary endeavor. This isn’t an on/off switch. There are degrees of success and they’re relative to investment. But it seems that a lot of people want to rush in to declare for whatever reason pro or con. I can think of very good reasons for each. We will see it play out in due time.

Right now for redraft, people have to make bets. That’s fine and that’s their space. But they often don’t realize that a performance will be a success in one format with one investment and unsuccessful in a different format with a different investment. So instead of waffle-stomping the story, we should wait and see and be clear about our premises and our predictions. That’s what I mean by uncertainty.

And I guess what I’m saying is this shouldn’t be a referendum on this thread or its importance. I guess I’m being proprietary but this is for junkie dynasty guys that wanted straight dope in April so they could cash in on it. If you did, you’ve already won. I guess that when somebody resets the bar of success to being , say, an RB2 in redraft I’d like to note that it wasn’t meant for that and that the intent and original opinion has already been a success and the rest of the measurement isn’t whether it is right or wrong but rather just how much of a success it is.

 

[fatness]

Commanders announce 33 players will not dress out vs. Ravens

The list:

The Washington Commanders have announced that the following players will not dress out for the preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens.

• No. 1 WR Deebo Samuel Sr.
• No. 5 QB Jayden Daniels
• No. 17 WR Terry McLaurin
• No. 30 RB Austin Ekeler
• No. 32 RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt
• No. 83 WR Jaylin Lane
• No. 85 Noah Brown

hmmm and do these tea leaves mean anything to folks? This is a special leaf. It comes only once a year and is on the morn of preseason gameday 3.

All seriousness I'm trying to grab as much Lane and Brown as I can. Only as of lately though.

The only thing it means to me is that Washington is resting their starters. I assume their 2nd string will start against at least some of the Raven's 1st team, since Harbaugh plays exhibition games to win. Quinn plays them to see how his players do when overmatched.

As far as indications of RB use during the season, I think that'll change game-to-game. Quinn swaps out RB's a lot.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It isn't premature to make a call when drafts are happening as we speak. It's a requirement. And whether you're willing to admit it or not you're doing EXACTLY THE SAME THING but just in the opposite direction. You're making a call.

Not at all.

I’m saying “wait and see”. I’m saying I like the guy too, but on a team that employs a RBBC, pump the brakes a little. I don’t see how taking a position that’s cautiously optimistic approach is “the opposite” of anointing a guy.

I’m not saying JCM isn’t going to be good, or that he’s going to be a bust. That would be “the opposite”.

And I don’t agree that it’s entirely harmless to prematurely anoint a player, especially during draft time. We can agree to disagree on that. We have “flag plant” or “bold call” topics for a reason.

Clearly this is a bigger issue for you than just my position in here, yet you seem to be taking it all out on me. That’s weird.

As for this part:

Yet you seem to accuse other(s) for arguing in bad faith. **** that. To negatively accuse someone who is literally by definition making a prediction, that they are stating an opinion and not fact... is a logical fallacy and weird. Because no **** it's a prediction and an opinion. In other news the sky is blue and water is wet. They're talking about how they see the future.

I never once accused anyone of bad faith. Not once. I notice you didn’t quote me saying that, probably because I didn’t. At all.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As for the uncertainty... I mean that's what we do. We read tea leaves and possess varying degrees of risk tolerance. Honestly don't know how high I'd take JCM today. I'm still letting dust settle but somewhere around 8 or 9 I'm still good. But there just aren't names in that area that don't have mad uncertainty. Perhaps a couple and that's why we study it. But he isn't one of them. Other than the certainty (in my mind) that he will get chances and that this opportunity exists.

Oh, it’s absolutely what we do. It’s why we spend nearly an hour trying to find Big 12 Pro Day results in March because we saw some things that popped off the page.

The reason I say things will be uncertain is because there are a few more hurdles to clear before we can reach a temporary summit from which we must descend and then attempt to ascend again the next week.

This game and social space can be weird. Everything gets really binary in a non-binary endeavor. This isn’t an on/off switch. There are degrees of success and they’re relative to investment. But it seems that a lot of people want to rush in to declare for whatever reason pro or con. I can think of very good reasons for each. We will see it play out in due time.

Right now for redraft, people have to make bets. That’s fine and that’s their space. But they often don’t realize that a performance will be a success in one format with one investment and unsuccessful in a different format with a different investment. So instead of waffle-stomping the story, we should wait and see and be clear about our premises and our predictions. That’s what I mean by uncertainty.

And I guess what I’m saying is this shouldn’t be a referendum on this thread or its importance. I guess I’m being proprietary but this is for junkie dynasty guys that wanted straight dope in April so they could cash in on it. If you did, you’ve already won. I guess that when somebody resets the bar of success to being , say, an RB2 in redraft I’d like to note that it wasn’t meant for that and that the intent and original opinion has already been a success and the rest of the measurement isn’t whether it is right or wrong but rather just how much of a success it is.

Don’t disagree with any of this. Well said.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt will not play in the Commanders’ preseason finale against the Ravens.
Both Croskey-Merritt and Austin Ekeler will sit this one out as the Commanders plan to rest nearly all of their starters. For fantasy managers trying to figure out the Commanders’ running back depth chart ahead of Week 1, Croskey-Merritt and Ekeler sitting out the preseason finale could suggest they’re the top two backs on the depth chart, while Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols both appear set to play. Croskey-Merritt has been picking up steam all offseason and performed well enough for the Commanders to trade Brian Robinson to the 49ers on Friday. While his touch distribution remains a question mark, it goes without saying that he’s worth adding in fantasy drafts in all formats.

NBCSports-o-world’s latest.

 

[Dez]

JCM sitting with Rodriguez is playing that tells you all you need to know now

 

[fatness]

Commanders announce 33 players will not dress out vs. Ravens

The list:

The Washington Commanders have announced that the following players will not dress out for the preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens.

• No. 0 CB Mike Sainristil
• No. 1 WR Deebo Samuel Sr.
• No. 2 CB Marshon Lattimore
• No. 3 S Will Harris
• No. 4 LB Frankie Luvu
• No. 5 QB Jayden Daniels
• No. 17 WR Terry McLaurin
• No. 18 QB Marcus Mariota
• No. 20 S Quan Martin
• No. 24 LB Von Miller
• No. 30 RB Austin Ekeler
• No. 31 CB Jonathan Jones
• No. 32 RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt
• No. 35 S Percy Butler
• No. 39 S Jeremy Reaves
• No. 52 DT Javon Kinlaw
• No. 54 LB Bobby Wagner
• No. 55 DE Jacob Martin
• No. 57 LB Nick Bellore
• No. 63 C Tyler Biadasz
• No. 67 G Nick Allegretti
• No. 71 T Andrew Wylie
• No. 72 T Josh Conerly Jr.
• No. 74 G Brandon Coleman
• No. 76 G Sam Cosmi
• No. 78 T Laremy Tunsil
• No. 83 WR Jaylin Lane
• No. 85 Noah Brown
• No. 86 TE Zach Ertz
• No. 87 TE John Bates
• No. 91 DE Deatrich Wise Jr.
• No. 92 DE Dorance Armstrong
• No. 94 DT Daron Payne

Well that list is partly wrong because Brandon Coleman is playing.

 

[fatness]

One guy's guess: Washington Commanders 90-man preseason depth chart ahead of the Ravens game

 

[jtd13]

Obviously way more misses than hits, but you've got a strong signal that is already pretty rare for RBs in those rounds: the incumbent starter got moved because they liked what else they had

That framing isn’t entirely accurate considering the team in question has long used role players for early down, short yardage, and receiving.

They liked JCM better for the role BRob, who’s been a JAG, had.

It’s not like WAS had some highly rated feature back that JCM pushed out of a job. One could argue that WAS didn’t actually have “an incumbent starter”.

There is nothing inaccurate about the framing. Unlike most late round picks, the leading rusher is suddenly out of the picture without a different replacement. That's quite a rare scenario.

I am not saying it definitively means JCM will take over, but to me it definitively refutes an argument like "how many round 6-7 guys actually hit?" We're in tny sample size territory now, so I don't think the historical odds are all that relevant.

Your implication that BRob was the Commanders breadwinner at RB rather than part of a committee was inaccurate. If that wasn’t your implication, then my bad - the bolded sure seemed to imply that. The Commanders leading rusher from 2024 was Daniels.

Also, while JCM appears to have made the roster, he hasn’t actually “hit” yet. Dude hasn’t scored a single FF point, and we don’t know how he’ll be used.

I have a share. I’m excited for the potential. But let’s not go popping Champaign corks yet. If JCM turns out to be merely a cog in a 4-way machine (not even including Daniels or Deebo), then that won’t exactly be the rare seismic event you’re describing here.

As @rockaction suggested, with comments like those we’re getting out over our skis just a bit. Hey, maybe it’ll happen - I’m rooting for it. But it hasn’t happened yet.

I have no implication whatsoever. BRob was factually the leading rusher for the team. I get the impression you think I'm saying something much different than I am and reading into it more than is there. I'm certainly not crowning jcm right now.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Round 9 redraft, round 2 rookie. Nice rise for those of you stole him much cheaper than that.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I have no implication whatsoever.

Fair

BRob was factually the leading rusher for the team.

Respectfully, no, he was not.

Jayden Daniels led the Commanders in RuYd with 891 yards.

BRob was 2nd on the team with 799

I get the impression you think I'm saying something much different than I am and reading into it more than is there. I'm certainly not crowning jcm right now.

That’s fair, and I appreciate the clarification.