RB Javonte Williams, DEN (1 Viewer)

[TheWinz]

1500 total yards was accomplished by only the top 7 RB's last year

Yards are only one component of scoring. There were 16 RB's who scored at least 8 TD's and 11 who had at least 50 recpts.

I was only using the number 1500 because you mentioned it multiple times. But, if we use your numbers of 1500/50/8, we are now down to only Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jacobs, and Barkley last year. I think 50 & 8 are not inflated, but 1500 is.

 

[Stoneworker]

1500 total yards was accomplished by only the top 7 RB's last year

Yards are only one component of scoring. There were 16 RB's who scored at least 8 TD's and 11 who had at least 50 recpts.

I was only using the number 1500 because you mentioned it multiple times. But, if we use your numbers of 1500/50/8, we are now down to only Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jacobs, and Barkley last year. I think 50 & 8 are not inflated, but 1500 is.

Perhaps. But IMO a healthy Javonte Williams as the clear starter in a Sean Payton offense with a Top 11 PFF O-line puts up 1,150 yds rushing, 50/350 receiving and 8 Td's without too much difficulty.

It's from there that the discounting exercise begins that gets him to his current ranking/ADP of RB28.

But of course everyone is free to use their own top line numbers. Mine are just for illustrative purposes and don't change the concept.

 

[menobrown]

Perhaps. But IMO a healthy Javonte Williams as the clear starter in a Sean Payton offense with a Top 11 PFF O-line puts up 1,150 yds rushing, 50/350 receiving and 8 Td's without too much difficulty.

If he plays 17 games that is super reasonable IMO

Not sure if you factored this into it when you came up with those numbers but while Mark Ingram only hit all of those numbers in one season over a 4 year span if you prorated his per game production to 17 it would come out to:


1,163 yds rushing, 53/384 receiving and 11 total TD's.

Pretty good starting off point for a projecting a fully healthy Williams season IMO.

 

[Stoneworker]

Perhaps. But IMO a healthy Javonte Williams as the clear starter in a Sean Payton offense with a Top 11 PFF O-line puts up 1,150 yds rushing, 50/350 receiving and 8 Td's without too much difficulty.

If he plays 17 games that is super reasonable IMO

Not sure if you factored this into it when you came up with those numbers but while Mark Ingram only hit all of those numbers in one season over a 4 year span if you prorated his per game production to 17 it would come out to:


1,163 yds rushing, 53/384 receiving and 11 total TD's.

Pretty good starting off point for a projecting a fully healthy Williams season IMO.

Great comp. Appreciate the research it required.

 

[TheWinz]

1500 total yards was accomplished by only the top 7 RB's last year

Yards are only one component of scoring. There were 16 RB's who scored at least 8 TD's and 11 who had at least 50 recpts.

I was only using the number 1500 because you mentioned it multiple times. But, if we use your numbers of 1500/50/8, we are now down to only Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jacobs, and Barkley last year. I think 50 & 8 are not inflated, but 1500 is.

Perhaps. But IMO a healthy Javonte Williams as the clear starter in a Sean Payton offense with a Top 11 PFF O-line puts up 1,150 yds rushing, 50/350 receiving and 8 Td's without too much difficulty.

It's from there that the discounting exercise begins that gets him to his current ranking/ADP of RB28.

But of course everyone is free to use their own top line numbers. Mine are just for illustrative purposes and don't change the concept.

I know your numbers look doable, but the fact is they are much harder than you'd think. I went back 10 years and here are the facts:
- It's only been done 30 times (average of 3 times per year)
- No player below RB6 has done it
- Russell Wilson has never had a 40+ reception RB (OK, this fact is completely useless to this conversation, but fun nonetheless)

 

[Stoneworker]

1500 total yards was accomplished by only the top 7 RB's last year

Yards are only one component of scoring. There were 16 RB's who scored at least 8 TD's and 11 who had at least 50 recpts.

I was only using the number 1500 because you mentioned it multiple times. But, if we use your numbers of 1500/50/8, we are now down to only Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jacobs, and Barkley last year. I think 50 & 8 are not inflated, but 1500 is.

Perhaps. But IMO a healthy Javonte Williams as the clear starter in a Sean Payton offense with a Top 11 PFF O-line puts up 1,150 yds rushing, 50/350 receiving and 8 Td's without too much difficulty.

It's from there that the discounting exercise begins that gets him to his current ranking/ADP of RB28.

But of course everyone is free to use their own top line numbers. Mine are just for illustrative purposes and don't change the concept.

I know your numbers look doable, but the fact is they are much harder than you'd think. I went back 10 years and here are the facts:
- It's only been done 30 times (average of 3 times per year)
- No player below RB6 has done it
- Russell Wilson has never had a 40+ reception RB (OK, this fact is completely useless to this conversation, but fun nonetheless)

The main reason it appears so difficult is because RB's rarely play a full 17 games. So they usually fall short of preseason 17-game projections that are required for apples-to-apples ranking purposes.

In addition, the 1500/50/8 is not intended to be a strict individual floor for each category. Achieving those floors in all three categories results in a much smaller RB group than the number achieving the equivalent FF point totals represented by those figures.

 

[humpback]

1500 total yards was accomplished by only the top 7 RB's last year

Yards are only one component of scoring. There were 16 RB's who scored at least 8 TD's and 11 who had at least 50 recpts.

I was only using the number 1500 because you mentioned it multiple times. But, if we use your numbers of 1500/50/8, we are now down to only Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jacobs, and Barkley last year. I think 50 & 8 are not inflated, but 1500 is.

Perhaps. But IMO a healthy Javonte Williams as the clear starter in a Sean Payton offense with a Top 11 PFF O-line puts up 1,150 yds rushing, 50/350 receiving and 8 Td's without too much difficulty.

It's from there that the discounting exercise begins that gets him to his current ranking/ADP of RB28.

But of course everyone is free to use their own top line numbers. Mine are just for illustrative purposes and don't change the concept.

I know your numbers look doable, but the fact is they are much harder than you'd think. I went back 10 years and here are the facts:
- It's only been done 30 times (average of 3 times per year)
- No player below RB6 has done it
- Russell Wilson has never had a 40+ reception RB (OK, this fact is completely useless to this conversation, but fun nonetheless)

The main reason it appears so difficult is because RB's rarely play a full 17 games. So they usually fall short of preseason 17-game projections that are required for apples-to-apples ranking purposes.

In addition, the 1500/50/8 is not intended to be a strict individual floor for each category. Achieving those floors in all three categories results in a much smaller RB group than the number achieving the equivalent FF point totals represented by those figures.

So you admit it's rare, but you expect a guy who just blew up his knee to do it?

 

[Stoneworker]

1500 total yards was accomplished by only the top 7 RB's last year

Yards are only one component of scoring. There were 16 RB's who scored at least 8 TD's and 11 who had at least 50 recpts.

I was only using the number 1500 because you mentioned it multiple times. But, if we use your numbers of 1500/50/8, we are now down to only Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jacobs, and Barkley last year. I think 50 & 8 are not inflated, but 1500 is.

Perhaps. But IMO a healthy Javonte Williams as the clear starter in a Sean Payton offense with a Top 11 PFF O-line puts up 1,150 yds rushing, 50/350 receiving and 8 Td's without too much difficulty.

It's from there that the discounting exercise begins that gets him to his current ranking/ADP of RB28.

But of course everyone is free to use their own top line numbers. Mine are just for illustrative purposes and don't change the concept.

I know your numbers look doable, but the fact is they are much harder than you'd think. I went back 10 years and here are the facts:
- It's only been done 30 times (average of 3 times per year)
- No player below RB6 has done it
- Russell Wilson has never had a 40+ reception RB (OK, this fact is completely useless to this conversation, but fun nonetheless)

The main reason it appears so difficult is because RB's rarely play a full 17 games. So they usually fall short of preseason 17-game projections that are required for apples-to-apples ranking purposes.

In addition, the 1500/50/8 is not intended to be a strict individual floor for each category. Achieving those floors in all three categories results in a much smaller RB group than the number achieving the equivalent FF point totals represented by those figures.

So you admit it's rare, but you expect a guy who just blew up his knee to do it?

Please read more carefully. That's not at all what I've been saying.

 

[humpback]

1500 total yards was accomplished by only the top 7 RB's last year

Yards are only one component of scoring. There were 16 RB's who scored at least 8 TD's and 11 who had at least 50 recpts.

I was only using the number 1500 because you mentioned it multiple times. But, if we use your numbers of 1500/50/8, we are now down to only Ekeler, McCaffrey, Jacobs, and Barkley last year. I think 50 & 8 are not inflated, but 1500 is.

Perhaps. But IMO a healthy Javonte Williams as the clear starter in a Sean Payton offense with a Top 11 PFF O-line puts up 1,150 yds rushing, 50/350 receiving and 8 Td's without too much difficulty.

It's from there that the discounting exercise begins that gets him to his current ranking/ADP of RB28.

But of course everyone is free to use their own top line numbers. Mine are just for illustrative purposes and don't change the concept.

I know your numbers look doable, but the fact is they are much harder than you'd think. I went back 10 years and here are the facts:
- It's only been done 30 times (average of 3 times per year)
- No player below RB6 has done it
- Russell Wilson has never had a 40+ reception RB (OK, this fact is completely useless to this conversation, but fun nonetheless)

The main reason it appears so difficult is because RB's rarely play a full 17 games. So they usually fall short of preseason 17-game projections that are required for apples-to-apples ranking purposes.

In addition, the 1500/50/8 is not intended to be a strict individual floor for each category. Achieving those floors in all three categories results in a much smaller RB group than the number achieving the equivalent FF point totals represented by those figures.

So you admit it's rare, but you expect a guy who just blew up his knee to do it?

Please read more carefully. That's not at all what I've been saying.

No offense, but I've already pointed out multiple errors that you've written so you might want to post more carefully.

Why do you keep posting the same numbers over and over?

 

[rockaction]

Yeah, I'm not really buying the ease with which the numbers will be accumulated, either. That said, at ADP of RB28, you could do a whole lot worse even if he does miss two or three games.

 

[Stoneworker]

So you admit it's rare, but you expect a guy who just blew up his knee to do it?

Please read more carefully. That's not at all what I've been saying.

No offense, but I've already pointed out multiple errors that you've written so you might want to post more carefully.

Why do you keep posting the same numbers over and over?

Post your own numbers then and let's see how well they hold up

 

[ratbast]

He was healthy and still couldn’t kick Gordon to the curb. His potential is overrated. I’d rather have Montgomery.

 

[TheWinz]

So you admit it's rare, but you expect a guy who just blew up his knee to do it?

Please read more carefully. That's not at all what I've been saying.

No offense, but I've already pointed out multiple errors that you've written so you might want to post more carefully.

Why do you keep posting the same numbers over and over?

Post your own numbers then and let's see how well they hold up

I really don't have a huge problem with your numbers, but was just pointing out how rare it is to meet all of them in the same year. If healthy all season, I think 8 TD's is an underestimate, unless Wilson decides he is 10 years younger and starts running more. I think 50 catches is very reasonable as well, and 1500 is doable with 300+ touches. But, the glaring problem for me at the moment is we have no idea if he will be ready to start the season. Fun fact - he's played 21 games so far, and he does meet the receptions number (59), but has only 7 total TD's and 1499 total yards. All of this on a total of 309 touches, which only 7 RB's managed last year.

 

[TheWinz]

He was healthy and still couldn’t kick Gordon to the curb. His potential is overrated. I’d rather have Montgomery.

Ironically, Monty is one of the guys with an 8/50/1500 season

 

[rockaction]

Folks, we could be looking at a guy whose value was a bit -- I mean a bit -- inflated anyway. That's not for certain, but possible. That's always been my sort of take on Javonte. I like him as a person, but he's not outrunning anybody in a foot race. He's a power runner who breaks tackles. He has great burst and agility, but long speed is not his strength.

As ratbast said, he couldn't keep Gordon off the field. How much of that was old school coaching by Fangio and mismanagement by Hackett we'll never really know.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It seems everyone is ignoring that Denver made Perine a priority signing in free agency and Williams (even dating back to college) has always been part of a committee.

Even if he was magically healed up 100% heading into the season he’s likely not seeing the workload being touted here. Perine isn’t some elite talent but he’s a solid all around back and will have a decent role.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

It seems everyone is ignoring that Denver made Perine a priority signing in free agency and Williams (even dating back to college) has always been part of a committee.

Even if he was magically healed up 100% heading into the season he’s likely not seeing the workload being touted here. Perine isn’t some elite talent but he’s a solid all around back and will have a decent role.

Absolutely. Perine could easily get 40% of touches even if Williams is fully healthy.

 

[DeaLerZ]

Folks, we could be looking at a guy whose value was a bit -- I mean a bit -- inflated anyway. That's not for certain, but possible. That's always been my sort of take on Javonte. I like him as a person, but he's not outrunning anybody in a foot race. He's a power runner who breaks tackles. He has great burst and agility, but long speed is not his strength.

As ratbast said, he couldn't keep Gordon off the field. How much of that was old school coaching by Fangio and mismanagement by Hackett we'll never really know.

I watched a lot of those games very closely last year as I had Williams/Gordon, Courtland Sutton, Russel Wilson, Greg Dulcich, and the Broncos defense. I can say very confidently that Javonte is the "real deal". Literally the game he got hurt, Hackett finally realized that he needed to use him more and was about to start feeding him. He was explosive, and everytime he touched the ball he looked like he might break a 20yd run. I remember the Monday night game where Peyton and Eli were watching, and they just kept being like "Why do you keep taking Javonte out?" It was one of the most frustrating offenses I have watched in recent years. Russel Wilson would throw it deep every play, and the drives would go no where. Everyone watching the games could see how much better he was than Gordon except Hackett. The fact that Hackett still has a job in this league shows that it is truly a "Fraternity" because he is an awful coach.

Every time Gordon was in there it looked like he might fumble again, and the difference in explosiveness was visibly different between the two backs. The play calling for the Broncos was horrendous last year. They would be on the 3 yard line, and throw 4 passes in a row, all incompletions and come away with no points instead of giving Javonte one chance to run the ball in for a TD.

My concern with Javonte is will he be at a 100 % this year, and will he get another injury due to coming back from major knee surgery. It really depends on how much he is in the auction draft, and if I can get him as a 3rd to 4th option. The other concern is will Russel Wilson always throw it deep instead of checking down? or maybe Sean Payton will fix that?

 

[humpback]

It seems everyone is ignoring that Denver made Perine a priority signing in free agency and Williams (even dating back to college) has always been part of a committee.

Even if he was magically healed up 100% heading into the season he’s likely not seeing the workload being touted here. Perine isn’t some elite talent but he’s a solid all around back and will have a decent role.

Yep, and Payton loves his RBBC. Unfortunately for us owners, this offense isn't likely to be anywhere near as good as the one in NO.

I'd characterize those numbers as extremely optimistic instead of extremely conservative, but to each their own.

 

[DeaLerZ]

It seems everyone is ignoring that Denver made Perine a priority signing in free agency and Williams (even dating back to college) has always been part of a committee.

Even if he was magically healed up 100% heading into the season he’s likely not seeing the workload being touted here. Perine isn’t some elite talent but he’s a solid all around back and will have a decent role.

Yep, and Payton loves his RBBC. Unfortunately for us owners, this offense isn't likely to be anywhere near as good as the one in NO.

I'd characterize those numbers as extremely optimistic instead of extremely conservative, but to each their own.

I actually think the Broncos have a ton of talent on offense. I think Russel Wilson could be a steal at QB this year, and Jeudy is about to break out. If Javonte Williams is healthy like he claims to be Sean Payton could easily turn this into a top 10 offense or better potentially.

Russel Wilson

Javonte Williams
Samaje Perine

Jerry Jeudy
Courtland Sutton
Tim Patrick (Apparently more talented than Jeudy???)
Greg Dulcich (Joker Role)

That is a lot of talent with the right coach, and Sean Payton is the right coach

 

[humpback]

It seems everyone is ignoring that Denver made Perine a priority signing in free agency and Williams (even dating back to college) has always been part of a committee.

Even if he was magically healed up 100% heading into the season he’s likely not seeing the workload being touted here. Perine isn’t some elite talent but he’s a solid all around back and will have a decent role.

Yep, and Payton loves his RBBC. Unfortunately for us owners, this offense isn't likely to be anywhere near as good as the one in NO.

I'd characterize those numbers as extremely optimistic instead of extremely conservative, but to each their own.

I actually think the Broncos have a ton of talent on offense. I think Russel Wilson could be a steal at QB this year, and Jeudy is about to break out. If Javonte Williams is healthy like he claims to be. Sean Payton could easily turn this into a top 10 offense or better potentially.

Russel Wilson

Javonte Williams
Samaje Perine

Jerry Jeudy
Courtland Sutton
Tim Patrick
Greg Dulcich (Joker Role)

That is a lot of talent with the right coach, and Sean Payton is the right coach

Just look at your choice of words- "I think" (x2), "could be", "about to", "If", "could", "potentially", etc. Sure, "if" every single thing turns up roses for them (spoiler alert, they won't), they "could be" a top 10 offense. That's still well below those juggernaut NO offenses- it's almost certainly going to be a smaller pie in Denver this year than it was in NO.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Wilson looked cooked to me the last two seasons.
Obviously it’s not impossible he bounces back, but I’m not going to rely on it.

 

[DeaLerZ]

It seems everyone is ignoring that Denver made Perine a priority signing in free agency and Williams (even dating back to college) has always been part of a committee.

Even if he was magically healed up 100% heading into the season he’s likely not seeing the workload being touted here. Perine isn’t some elite talent but he’s a solid all around back and will have a decent role.

Yep, and Payton loves his RBBC. Unfortunately for us owners, this offense isn't likely to be anywhere near as good as the one in NO.

I'd characterize those numbers as extremely optimistic instead of extremely conservative, but to each their own.

I actually think the Broncos have a ton of talent on offense. I think Russel Wilson could be a steal at QB this year, and Jeudy is about to break out. If Javonte Williams is healthy like he claims to be. Sean Payton could easily turn this into a top 10 offense or better potentially.

Russel Wilson

Javonte Williams
Samaje Perine

Jerry Jeudy
Courtland Sutton
Tim Patrick
Greg Dulcich (Joker Role)

That is a lot of talent with the right coach, and Sean Payton is the right coach

Just look at your choice of words- "I think" (x2), "could be", "about to", "If", "could", "potentially", etc. Sure, "if" every single thing turns up roses for them (spoiler alert, they won't), they "could be" a top 10 offense. That's still well below those juggernaut NO offenses- it's almost certainly going to be a smaller pie in Denver this year than it was in NO.

Isn't everything that we talk about on these forums about "Potential" though? Alot of those players flashed greatness last year specifically Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, and Greg Dulcich. Sean Payton is the guy who will maximize all the talent around him. The biggest issue I saw with Russel Wilson last year was that he was throwing 40 yard bombs every other play in that horrendous offense. With an offensive genious like Payton I could see Wilson having 1-2 above average years left in him. You can throw last year out the window because the play calling and coaching was god awful. If he can't do well this year, than the Broncos have officially made the worst contract ever in sports history with Russel Wilson

and to be clear I am talking about taking him at $1-$2 in an auction league at the end of the draft type of potental. Not risking anything on him. Plus he isn't one of my favorite people. He is kind of a snoz. "Broncos Country Let's Ride" lol

 

[wgoldsph]

Don't know how you can look at the pre-injury time share last year as anything other than coach malfeasance.

 

[ZWK]

Javonte got the ball 19.3 times per game over the first 3 weeks (carries + targets), which would've ranked 11th among RBs in per-game workload (and just 2 per game out of 4th). So not exactly a tiny workload. Gordon got the ball 14.3 times per game over those 3 weeks, which makes it fairly balanced.

Then in the first half of week 4, Williams got the ball 10 times and Gordon got it once (late in the 2nd quarter), with 0 touches for any other RB. So it looked like even the share of the workload was swinging towards Williams. Then Williams got injured on the first play of the 2nd half.

 

[travdogg]

Javonte got the ball 19.3 times per game over the first 3 weeks (carries + targets), which would've ranked 11th among RBs in per-game workload (and just 2 per game out of 4th). So not exactly a tiny workload. Gordon got the ball 14.3 times per game over those 3 weeks, which makes it fairly balanced.

Then in the first half of week 4, Williams got the ball 10 times and Gordon got it once (late in the 2nd quarter), with 0 touches for any other RB. So it looked like even the share of the workload was swinging towards Williams. Then Williams got injured on the first play of the 2nd half.

Yep, much like Breece Hall, Javonte was starting to really pull away. and also had a chance at finishing as a top-10 RB.

 

[Ilov80s]

Javonte got the ball 19.3 times per game over the first 3 weeks (carries + targets), which would've ranked 11th among RBs in per-game workload (and just 2 per game out of 4th). So not exactly a tiny workload. Gordon got the ball 14.3 times per game over those 3 weeks, which makes it fairly balanced.

Then in the first half of week 4, Williams got the ball 10 times and Gordon got it once (late in the 2nd quarter), with 0 touches for any other RB. So it looked like even the share of the workload was swinging towards Williams. Then Williams got injured on the first play of the 2nd half.

Yep, much like Breece Hall, Javonte was starting to really pull away. and also had a chance at finishing as a top-10 RB.

Not trying to be rude but these guys aren’t comparable at all. Williams was starting to look ok for fantasy. Breece was on the verge of being a league winner.

 

[Stoneworker]

In the first 3.5 games (and one play) of 2022, Williams had 63 touches (47 carries, 16 recpts) for 280 total yards.

That is a per game average of 18 touches and 80 total yards, which extrapolates to 306 touches (228 carries, 78 recpts) for 1,360 total yards over a full 17-game season.

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

If Javonte was on pace for 1,360 total yards, with 3 out of 3.5 games split 55/45, in a putrid offense, with a decimated O-line, it is not a stretch in the least to assume that in full health he is capable of 1,500 total yards in a Sean Payton offense with a PFF Top 11-ranked O-line, and a backfield split as much as 60/40 with Perine.

Of course, whether he actually attains full health in 2023 and what his actual usage will be (i.e. pitch count, start on IR, etc) are all valid reasons to discount off the top line. Everyone's mileage will vary on that front.

But Williams' 2022 numbers prove that a 1,500 total yard ceiling / potential over a fully healthy 17-game season is not nearly as unrealistic as many believe. In fact, it is quite reasonable.

 

[Birdie048]

Just look at your choice of words- "I think" (x2), "could be", "about to", "If", "could", "potentially", etc. Sure, "if" every single thing turns up roses for them (spoiler alert, they won't), they "could be" a top 10 offense. That's still well below those juggernaut NO offenses- it's almost certainly going to be a smaller pie in Denver this year than it was in NO.

Avid Javonte fan & watched multiple games at UNC. I think the optimism is great but “his reality” is still in question.
IF, COULD, & POTENTIAL all have room for serious doubt and disappointment.
I own zero shares but have tried to acquire some with the expected “discount” belief. But many current owners are not selling discount and want top $ value and assume zero risk involved. Hard to accept that pill to swallow until more info available.
Personal opinion is Javonte will be eased in starting week 4 and timeshare RBBC at least 4 more weeks giving him equivalent to 11-12 game season in 2023. He is still young & long term value 2024 and beyond is worth investing but I don’t see those #’s for 2023 as high likelihood occurring
Depending on how the season goes for Denver, 2024 could be a completely different tune. Multiple decisions to address on offense and limited draft capital until then hindered efforts.
Maybe Wilson recovers from his dismal past 2 seasons and works with Payton to be more than an embarrassment.

 

[humpback]

In the first 3.5 games (and one play) of 2022, Williams had 63 touches (47 carries, 16 recpts) for 280 total yards.

That is a per game average of 18 touches and 80 total yards, which extrapolates to 306 touches (228 carries, 78 recpts) for 1,360 total yards over a full 17-game season.

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

If Javonte was on pace for 1,360 total yards, with 3 out of 3.5 games split 55/45, in a putrid offense, with a decimated O-line, it is not a stretch in the least to assume that in full health he is capable of 1,500 total yards in a Sean Payton offense with a PFF Top 11-ranked O-line, and a backfield split as much as 60/40 with Perine.

Of course, whether he actually attains full health in 2023 and what his actual usage will be (i.e. pitch count, start on IR, etc) are all valid reasons to discount off the top line. Everyone's mileage will vary on that front.

But Williams' 2022 numbers prove that a 1,500 total yard ceiling / potential over a fully healthy 17-game season is not nearly as unrealistic as many believe. In fact, it is quite reasonable.

He was also on pace for 0 TDs and just under 5 fumbles lost on the season, funny how you didn't include that part this time.

Look how much stretching you have to do, and you still can't get to your "extremely conservative" 1,500/50/8 numbers. I mean, his last 2 1/2 games he was "on pace" for 34 receptions for 75 yards on the season, why can't we use those numbers since you think 1/2 of one game "proves" that his touch ratio was history and he had taken over the backfield? I commented in here when the injury happened that it looked like he was finally going to be given the reigns, but no, one half of one game doesn't "prove" anything, nor do his 2022 numbers "prove" that your projections are quite reasonable.

 

[Penguin]

No way Javonta catches 50 passes with Perine there

 

[Ilov80s]

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

I am sorry but a <1 game sample proves nothing.

 

[Ilov80s]

In 0.5 ppr:

Javonte Williams averaged 9.0 (RB40)
Breece Hall averaged 15.4 (RB7)


You can add all the caveats you want to this but these 2 aren't at all comparable. Might as well compare Brian Robinson to Nick Chubb.

 

[Stoneworker]

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

I am sorry but a <1 game sample proves nothing.

Clearly you don't follow the Broncos. It was a trend beginning in the first game. Gordon just had his third fumble in three games the week before. It was obvious to anyone paying attention that Hackett was going to significantly change the backfield time share even more in Williams' favor. Too late for most fans, even.

 

[Stoneworker]

In the first 3.5 games (and one play) of 2022, Williams had 63 touches (47 carries, 16 recpts) for 280 total yards.

That is a per game average of 18 touches and 80 total yards, which extrapolates to 306 touches (228 carries, 78 recpts) for 1,360 total yards over a full 17-game season.

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

If Javonte was on pace for 1,360 total yards, with 3 out of 3.5 games split 55/45, in a putrid offense, with a decimated O-line, it is not a stretch in the least to assume that in full health he is capable of 1,500 total yards in a Sean Payton offense with a PFF Top 11-ranked O-line, and a backfield split as much as 60/40 with Perine.

Of course, whether he actually attains full health in 2023 and what his actual usage will be (i.e. pitch count, start on IR, etc) are all valid reasons to discount off the top line. Everyone's mileage will vary on that front.

But Williams' 2022 numbers prove that a 1,500 total yard ceiling / potential over a fully healthy 17-game season is not nearly as unrealistic as many believe. In fact, it is quite reasonable.

He was also on pace for 0 TDs and just under 5 fumbles lost on the season, funny how you didn't include that part this time.

Look how much stretching you have to do, and you still can't get to your "extremely conservative" 1,500/50/8 numbers. I mean, his last 2 1/2 games he was "on pace" for 34 receptions for 75 yards on the season, why can't we use those numbers since you think 1/2 of one game "proves" that his touch ratio was history and he had taken over the backfield? I commented in here when the injury happened that it looked like he was finally going to be given the reigns, but no, one half of one game doesn't "prove" anything, nor do his 2022 numbers "prove" that your projections are quite reasonable.

Still waiting for you to put forth your own projections

 

[Ilov80s]

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

I am sorry but a <1 game sample proves nothing.

Clearly you don't follow the Broncos. It was a trend beginning in the first game. Gordon just had his third fumble in three games the week before. It was obvious to anyone paying attention that Hackett was going to significantly change the backfield time share even more in Williams' favor. Too late for most fans, even.

If it was a trend the first game then it would be reflected in his season stats which were RB 40 on a PPG basis. I am not saying Javonte sucks or anything but comparing him to Breece Hall is not appropriate.

 

[Stoneworker]

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

I am sorry but a <1 game sample proves nothing.

Clearly you don't follow the Broncos. It was a trend beginning in the first game. Gordon just had his third fumble in three games the week before. It was obvious to anyone paying attention that Hackett was going to significantly change the backfield time share even more in Williams' favor. Too late for most fans, even.

If it was a trend the first game then it would be reflected in his season stats which were RB 40 on a PPG basis. I am not saying Javonte sucks or anything but comparing him to Breece Hall is not appropriate.

I've never mentioned Breece Hall anywhere

 

[Ilov80s]

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

I am sorry but a <1 game sample proves nothing.

Clearly you don't follow the Broncos. It was a trend beginning in the first game. Gordon just had his third fumble in three games the week before. It was obvious to anyone paying attention that Hackett was going to significantly change the backfield time share even more in Williams' favor. Too late for most fans, even.

If it was a trend the first game then it would be reflected in his season stats which were RB 40 on a PPG basis. I am not saying Javonte sucks or anything but comparing him to Breece Hall is not appropriate.

I've never mentioned Breece Hall anywhere

Fair, was another poster.

You still have not convinced me on Williams. All I see is a small sample of him being ok that is supposed to show he was rocketing up the charts.

 

[rockaction]

It's not really worth slamming one's head into the wall arguing with what could have been.

All we know is what is, and that's that Javonte didn't win the job his first year, either, which is something Breece and others (like Jonathan Taylor) did. Heck, Taylor needed an injury to Mack. Breece and others just flat out won their jobs. Those are your league winners. Javonte split time in both his first and the overwhelming majority of this second year. And you could theoretically argue that Hackett had simply had it with Gordon and was about to acquire another back to help split the load (like Latavius Murray).

Of course, this won't stop truthers and true believers of anything, but their argument is really flimsy when analyzed from any distance.

 

[Ilov80s]

It's not really worth slamming one's head into the wall arguing with what could have been.

All we know is what is, and that's that Javonte didn't win the job his first year, either, which is something Breece and others (like Jonathan Taylor) did. Heck, Taylor needed an injury to Mack. Breece and others just flat out won their jobs. Those are your league winners. Javonte split time in both his first and the overwhelming majority of this second year. And you could theoretically argue that Hackett had simply had it with Gordon and was about to acquire another back to help split the load (like Latavius Murray).

Of course, this won't stop truthers and true believers of anything, but their argument is really flimsy when analyzed from any distance.

Well said. The facts speak for themselves.

 

[rockaction]

In addition to that, I rostered Javonte that first year in dynasty and his production was fairly poor on a per-game basis even for the amount of touches he had. In other words, his expected fantasy points given the volume and quality of his touches was above his actual fantasy points. Now, some people cite regression to the mean as something likely to happen, but what is just as likely is that he underperformed his touches.

 

[Ilov80s]

In addition to that, I rostered Javonte that first year in dynasty and his production was fairly poor on a per-game basis even for the amount of touches he had. In other words, his expected fantasy points given the volume and quality of his touches was above his actual fantasy points. Now, some people cite regression to the mean as something likely to happen, but what is just as likely is that he underperformed his touches.

I hate to be that guy (because I am wrong so often) but Javonte was always so overrated because of how fun his highlights were. People liked him more than ETN- lunacy. But sure look at Javonte run some college kids over. In the end, we are talking about a back who had trouble separating himself from Michael Carter. The Javonte hype actually f'd me up because it got me to overrated Carter.

If Michel Carter was at Clemson with ETN, we wouldn't even know his name.

 

[rockaction]

The Javonte hype actually f'd me up because it got me to overrated Carter.

If Michel Carter was at Clemson with ETN, we wouldn't even know his name.

Strong words. I generally agree with them. But Javonte had second-round draft capital, so it's not like he was some slouch. He just didn't have long speed. Which one witnessed in one of his long runs his first year where he was caught from behind at the one and then got up and, frustrated, spiked the ball prompting a penalty on his team.

I know because I rostered him.

 

[Ilov80s]

The Javonte hype actually f'd me up because it got me to overrated Carter.

If Michel Carter was at Clemson with ETN, we wouldn't even know his name.

Strong words. I generally agree with them. But Javonte had second-round draft capital, so it's not like he was some slouch. He just didn't have long speed. Which one witnessed in one of his long runs his first year where he was caught from behind at the one and then got up and, frustrated, spiked the ball prompting a penalty on his team.

I know because I rostered him.

Oh yeah, I don't mean this as Javonte sux or anything. We, who were there, know many many had him ranked above ETN and Najee. He never should have been that prospect. Like you said, the testing numbers illustrated it very clearly.

 

[Penguin]

My prediction for Javonta this year is 980 yds, 35 receptions and 6 TD's for 169 PPR points, around RB26'ish

I figure he'll miss 3 or so games, either at the beginning of the season or in the middle of the year. S.Perine should get most of the 3rd down work and I think Denver will be throwing more than the past 2 years.

I just don't see S.Payton riding this horse like Secretariet and I'm not sure Davonta could handle the workload if Sean did.

 

[Penguin]

My prediction for Javonta this year is 980 yds, 35 receptions and 6 TD's for 169 PPR points, around RB26'ish

I figure he'll miss 3 or so games, either at the beginning of the season or in the middle of the year. S.Perine should get most of the 3rd down work and I think Denver will be throwing more than the past 2 years.

I just don't see S.Payton riding this horse like Secretariet and I'm not sure Davonta could handle the workload if Sean did.

I think 2024 to 2026 I'd expect 220-240 in PPR but he'll never come close to an elite season.

 

[humpback]

In the first 3.5 games (and one play) of 2022, Williams had 63 touches (47 carries, 16 recpts) for 280 total yards.

That is a per game average of 18 touches and 80 total yards, which extrapolates to 306 touches (228 carries, 78 recpts) for 1,360 total yards over a full 17-game season.

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

If Javonte was on pace for 1,360 total yards, with 3 out of 3.5 games split 55/45, in a putrid offense, with a decimated O-line, it is not a stretch in the least to assume that in full health he is capable of 1,500 total yards in a Sean Payton offense with a PFF Top 11-ranked O-line, and a backfield split as much as 60/40 with Perine.

Of course, whether he actually attains full health in 2023 and what his actual usage will be (i.e. pitch count, start on IR, etc) are all valid reasons to discount off the top line. Everyone's mileage will vary on that front.

But Williams' 2022 numbers prove that a 1,500 total yard ceiling / potential over a fully healthy 17-game season is not nearly as unrealistic as many believe. In fact, it is quite reasonable.

He was also on pace for 0 TDs and just under 5 fumbles lost on the season, funny how you didn't include that part this time.

Look how much stretching you have to do, and you still can't get to your "extremely conservative" 1,500/50/8 numbers. I mean, his last 2 1/2 games he was "on pace" for 34 receptions for 75 yards on the season, why can't we use those numbers since you think 1/2 of one game "proves" that his touch ratio was history and he had taken over the backfield? I commented in here when the injury happened that it looked like he was finally going to be given the reigns, but no, one half of one game doesn't "prove" anything, nor do his 2022 numbers "prove" that your projections are quite reasonable.

Still waiting for you to put forth your own projections

Okay, I'll take a page out of your playbook:

That last 1/2 game is everything. If we pro-rate that out to a full 17 games, it would give him 340 carries for 952 yards and 17 receptions for -17 yards and 0 total TDs on the season, so RB ~44. But that's extremely optimistic, because it was actually slightly more than 1/2 a game, it was against a below average Raiders team, and it was early in the season when he still had fresh legs so his production was very reasonably likely to only drop from there. And his final touch should carry the most weight because it was the most recent data point, and he lost a yard on that carry, so I think a .87926 multiplier to his numbers from that game is quite reasonable, making him ~RB 47. Hmm, now that I think of it, assuming his ypc stayed or dropped from that 2.8 he probably wouldn't have received 340 carries on the season, so let's call it ~RB 50. Oh, and that's only in the very unlikely event that he is 100% healthy for all 17 games.

Cherry picking numbers is fun!

 

[MCFootball123]

History shows he would have to be exceptionally rare to be worth the investment this year considering the extent of the injury. Why make that bet where you have to take him? Odds are much more in favor of Perine outscoring Williams imo. First half of the year I think Perine gets as much or more rushing work. Maybe stars align and Perine loses carries to Williams in the second half of the year, but I view him as the 3rd down staple so there is still value.

The shark move is obviously to move Perine early if this starts to happen.

Huge Perine fan at ADP.

 

[Stoneworker]

In the first 3.5 games (and one play) of 2022, Williams had 63 touches (47 carries, 16 recpts) for 280 total yards.

That is a per game average of 18 touches and 80 total yards, which extrapolates to 306 touches (228 carries, 78 recpts) for 1,360 total yards over a full 17-game season.

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

If Javonte was on pace for 1,360 total yards, with 3 out of 3.5 games split 55/45, in a putrid offense, with a decimated O-line, it is not a stretch in the least to assume that in full health he is capable of 1,500 total yards in a Sean Payton offense with a PFF Top 11-ranked O-line, and a backfield split as much as 60/40 with Perine.

Of course, whether he actually attains full health in 2023 and what his actual usage will be (i.e. pitch count, start on IR, etc) are all valid reasons to discount off the top line. Everyone's mileage will vary on that front.

But Williams' 2022 numbers prove that a 1,500 total yard ceiling / potential over a fully healthy 17-game season is not nearly as unrealistic as many believe. In fact, it is quite reasonable.

He was also on pace for 0 TDs and just under 5 fumbles lost on the season, funny how you didn't include that part this time.

Look how much stretching you have to do, and you still can't get to your "extremely conservative" 1,500/50/8 numbers. I mean, his last 2 1/2 games he was "on pace" for 34 receptions for 75 yards on the season, why can't we use those numbers since you think 1/2 of one game "proves" that his touch ratio was history and he had taken over the backfield? I commented in here when the injury happened that it looked like he was finally going to be given the reigns, but no, one half of one game doesn't "prove" anything, nor do his 2022 numbers "prove" that your projections are quite reasonable.

Still waiting for you to put forth your own projections

Okay, I'll take a page out of your playbook:

That last 1/2 game is everything. If we pro-rate that out to a full 17 games, it would give him 340 carries for 952 yards and 17 receptions for -17 yards and 0 total TDs on the season, so RB ~44. But that's extremely optimistic, because it was actually slightly more than 1/2 a game, it was against a below average Raiders team, and it was early in the season when he still had fresh legs so his production was very reasonably likely to only drop from there. And his final touch should carry the most weight because it was the most recent data point, and he lost a yard on that carry, so I think a .87926 multiplier to his numbers from that game is quite reasonable, making him ~RB 47. Hmm, now that I think of it, assuming his ypc stayed or dropped from that 2.8 he probably wouldn't have received 340 carries on the season, so let's call it ~RB 50. Oh, and that's only in the very unlikely event that he is 100% healthy for all 17 games.

Cherry picking numbers is fun!

Melvin Gordon himself stated publicly it was clear the coaching staff wanted Javonte to be "the guy" for 2022. Game 4 was just the turning point after Hackett finally realized his experiment giving Gordon roughly equal time for the first three games was an epic failure.

 

[Ilov80s]

In the first 3.5 games (and one play) of 2022, Williams had 63 touches (47 carries, 16 recpts) for 280 total yards.

That is a per game average of 18 touches and 80 total yards, which extrapolates to 306 touches (228 carries, 78 recpts) for 1,360 total yards over a full 17-game season.

The Williams / Gordon touch ratio (recpts, not targets) was exactly 55/45 after the first three full games (52/42). However, as @ZWK mentions above, the drastically different start to game 4 (11:1 Williams:Gordon) made it clear that the 55/45 ratio was history, and that Williams had taken over the backfield. Therefore it is reasonable to assume Javonte's per game averages would have only gone up for the remainder of 2022, resulting in a reasonably estimated increase of 150-200 total yards from his extrapolated 3.5 game averages.

If Javonte was on pace for 1,360 total yards, with 3 out of 3.5 games split 55/45, in a putrid offense, with a decimated O-line, it is not a stretch in the least to assume that in full health he is capable of 1,500 total yards in a Sean Payton offense with a PFF Top 11-ranked O-line, and a backfield split as much as 60/40 with Perine.

Of course, whether he actually attains full health in 2023 and what his actual usage will be (i.e. pitch count, start on IR, etc) are all valid reasons to discount off the top line. Everyone's mileage will vary on that front.

But Williams' 2022 numbers prove that a 1,500 total yard ceiling / potential over a fully healthy 17-game season is not nearly as unrealistic as many believe. In fact, it is quite reasonable.

He was also on pace for 0 TDs and just under 5 fumbles lost on the season, funny how you didn't include that part this time.

Look how much stretching you have to do, and you still can't get to your "extremely conservative" 1,500/50/8 numbers. I mean, his last 2 1/2 games he was "on pace" for 34 receptions for 75 yards on the season, why can't we use those numbers since you think 1/2 of one game "proves" that his touch ratio was history and he had taken over the backfield? I commented in here when the injury happened that it looked like he was finally going to be given the reigns, but no, one half of one game doesn't "prove" anything, nor do his 2022 numbers "prove" that your projections are quite reasonable.

Still waiting for you to put forth your own projections

Okay, I'll take a page out of your playbook:

That last 1/2 game is everything. If we pro-rate that out to a full 17 games, it would give him 340 carries for 952 yards and 17 receptions for -17 yards and 0 total TDs on the season, so RB ~44. But that's extremely optimistic, because it was actually slightly more than 1/2 a game, it was against a below average Raiders team, and it was early in the season when he still had fresh legs so his production was very reasonably likely to only drop from there. And his final touch should carry the most weight because it was the most recent data point, and he lost a yard on that carry, so I think a .87926 multiplier to his numbers from that game is quite reasonable, making him ~RB 47. Hmm, now that I think of it, assuming his ypc stayed or dropped from that 2.8 he probably wouldn't have received 340 carries on the season, so let's call it ~RB 50. Oh, and that's only in the very unlikely event that he is 100% healthy for all 17 games.

Cherry picking numbers is fun!

Melvin Gordon himself stated publicly it was clear the coaching staff wanted Javonte to be "the guy" for 2022. Game 4 was just the turning point after Hackett finally realized his experiment giving Gordon roughly equal time for the first three games was an epic failure.

But we have no idea how he would have done in that role or if he could even handle it physically