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RB Javonte Williams, DEN (2 Viewers)

Broncos selected North Carolina RB Javonte Williams with the No. 35 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Denver traded pick No. 40 and a fourth-rounder to Atlanta in order to move up to No. 35. A high school valedictorian with Ivy School scholarship offers, Williams (5’10/212) overachieved under coach Mack Brown as a three-star recruit, ultimately declaring for the NFL Draft as a true junior. During his final season, Williams split time with third-down running back prospect Michael Carter, yet still rushed for 1,140 yards and 19 touchdowns. He set Pro Football Focus’s missed tackles forced per carry record (0.48) largely because of his physical rushing style and impressive contact balance. Because of Carter’s presence, Williams only had 25 receptions last year, but his 54th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.55 40-time) suggests he can carve out a role as Denver's pass-catching back in a pinch. Only 21 years old with 366 career carries on draft night, Williams profiles as a featured rusher with the upside to be a three-down contributor similar to Chris Carson. It spells horrific news for Melvin Gordon, who took until the final month of the year (opposite an easy schedule of opponents) to perform well. There's a real chance Williams splits carries as an RB2/3 from Week 1.

Apr 30, 2021, 7:06 PM ET
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It’s probably fine.  He’ll have a significant role as a rookie.  He should get at leadt Lindsay’s touches. 
 

Gordon usually misses at least a couple of games.  He’ll get a surge of touches.

Gordon should be gone after this coming season.

 
I was going to say, anybody calling Melvin Gordon "trash" didn't watch him last year. He looked oodles better than I thought he would. Better than Williams? Who knows? But he'll certainly be an impediment to touches this year. 

 
woodstock said:
I was going to say, anybody calling Melvin Gordon "trash" didn't watch him last year. He looked oodles better than I thought he would. Better than Williams? Who knows? But he'll certainly be an impediment to touches this year. 
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Gordon doesn't worry me at all. One year road block at worst. The broncos qbs are pretty terrifying though. Not a death sentence with bad qb play but it lowers the ceiling for sure.

 
nittanylion said:
Laughable. Melvin Gordon is many things. Trash definitely isn't one of them.

...but he probably won't be on the Broncos Roster in 2021, which is a + for Javonte Williams.
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woodstock said:
I was going to say, anybody calling Melvin Gordon "trash" didn't watch him last year. He looked oodles better than I thought he would. Better than Williams? Who knows? But he'll certainly be an impediment to touches this year. 
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I agree. Gordon has ability. But this is going to follow a typical pattern. Gordon is the guy early in the season and by the FF playoffs Williams will be winning leagues. I am super curious to see what happens to his ADP. 

The biggest question mark for me for 2021 is whether Lock can take a step forward. He has so many weapons. Or whether Rodgers ends up there. 

 
I didn't mind waiting for Dobbins to be rid of Ingram, and I don't mind waiting for Javonte to be rid of Gordon.  

This landing spot probably ensures ETN staying above him on ADP.  

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Sooner or later, folks are going to realize the era of the Bell Cow RB is over. Everyone is going to have some sort of timeshare.

The trick now is to figure out, in a 60/40 split, which guy is going to be the 60 and which is going to be the 40.
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I could not agree on this more!!!

One of the keys to me is the RB being involved in the passing game...it tends to move the floor up.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Sooner or later, folks are going to realize the era of the Bell Cow RB is over. Everyone is going to have some sort of timeshare.

The trick now is to figure out, in a 60/40 split, which guy is going to be the 60 and which is going to be the 40.
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I was going to say "RBBC gonna RBBC" but this is a very elegant way to say just that.  That, and which 60%er's are dynamic enough to do the most with those splits.  Need to find the guys that get involved in the passing game and/or can create yardage and TD's out of thin air.

 
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Boston said:
I could not agree on this more!!!

One of the keys to me is the RB being involved in the passing game...it tends to move the floor up.
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Hankmoody said:
That, and which 60%'s are dynamic enough to do the most with those splits.  Need to find the guys that get involved in the passing game and/or can create yardage and TD's out of thin air.
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Yup. And that is why Etienne going to Jax isn't awful (for Etienne). It is for Robinson because that'll be more like 70/30. But that's for those guys' thread.

I think the relevant number in this thread is 28 - Gordon's age.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
Yup. And that is why Etienne going to Jax isn't awful (for Etienne). It is for Robinson because that'll be more like 70/30. But that's for those guys' thread.

I think the relevant number in this thread is 28 - Gordon's age.
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I think one of the models for this is one that often gets forgotten...Murray and Kamara.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Yup. And that is why Etienne going to Jax isn't awful (for Etienne). It is for Robinson because that'll be more like 70/30. But that's for those guys' thread.

I think the relevant number in this thread is 28 - Gordon's age.
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yes - at worst Williams is taking the snaps that went to Lindsey last season and can take over the larger share in 2022.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Sooner or later, folks are going to realize the era of the Bell Cow RB is over. Everyone is going to have some sort of timeshare.

The trick now is to figure out, in a 60/40 split, which guy is going to be the 60 and which is going to be the 40.
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Well that is for sure but that doesn't mean there aren't still opportunities for Bell Cows to emerge. There *are* still a number of them out there and there *are* coaches who still prefer to find that kind of guy. Even though any approach is going to include quality depth. 

And I see an obvious path towards that kind of role here in Denver as Gordon is phased out. It might be a process that occurs on paper *after* 2021, but we may very well see it on the field *during*. That is the typical rookie success path. Limited touches earlier in the season and by seasons end they are dominating. Even with that incumbent in the picture. We see it all the time. 

And if JW only ever gets to the 60% in a split then yeah that is about as best as most should ever expect out of a FF RB anyway. But there *is* a path for more. Obviously I'm talking about scenarios where the rookie doesn't bust but is actually good. 

 
The thing I keep going back to is that offense is just awaiting a good QB, for the passing game to explode. 

Sutton, Jeudy, Fant, Hamler is pretty impressive to me. Lot of speed, lot of mismatches.  

I'd like the lead back in that offense.  

 
I have 1.4 and 1.5 in two draft, and am just hoping my rookie drafts happen before Aaron Rodgers gets traded to DEN.  

 
massraider said:
The thing I keep going back to is that offense is just awaiting a good QB, for the passing game to explode. 

Sutton, Jeudy, Fant, Hamler is pretty impressive to me. Lot of speed, lot of mismatches.  

I'd like the lead back in that offense.  
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If Rodgers ends up there Fant could explode...he is worth targeting right now because he will still be a top 10 TE even if Rodgers doesn't go there...the kid just looks the part and he's still only 23.

 
I agree with others that Gordon is an underrated, effective RB.

But Gordon’s contract is up after this year and it doesn’t take much reading of tea leaves to see that it’s going to be Williams’ backfield. Just a matter of when.

Net/net, I think it’s a good landing spot for dynasty purposes.

ETA: Iluvbeer beat me to it.

 
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massraider said:
I didn't mind waiting for Dobbins to be rid of Ingram, and I don't mind waiting for Javonte to be rid of Gordon.  

This landing spot probably ensures ETN staying above him on ADP.  
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I'll be targeting him in every draft. Gordon will depress his value enough so that he'll pay massive dividends in '22 and beyond. He'll be the lead back on a loaded team (with a new QB) one year from now.

 
rockaction said:
Javonte Williams finished second in David Zach's Z Score for running backs among drafted backs. Zach estimates that Williams will score 14.5 ppg over the next three years. He finished with a B+, second to Najee Harris.

Link for methodology: https://www.dynastynerds.com/predicting-rookie-rb-success-post-nfl-draft-2021-fantasy-football/
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On top of this positive outlook, there has also been a strong correlation towards running backs drafted that were traded up for by the team to acquire.

JJ Zachariason has a reference in his rookie rankings on number fire.

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/37804/zachariason-post-draft-fantasy-football-rookie-rankings

 
MoP gut in early May...

-Agree with many that Mel Gordon misses time and can be so frustrating for owners that many times when he does score or has a better than avg day, many owners had him sitting on their benches. That's fantasy talk but the Denver Broncos must feel that up n down pattern he exhibits as well. I think Williams will come in and assuming he can make blocking assignments when needed and the defenses are left guessing if he is run or pass, I think Williams will see half the touches and maybe even a 60/40 split at some point if he excels and the results/numbers will be too hard to look the other way. 

Williams tape stands out and while he won't be running untouched up the middle as often, he can be the guy Denver has lacked of late to break off huge chunks. Portis 2.0? That's the kind of moves I am seeing here and maybe the best RB to take a Denver uniform since Portis left back in '05? 

And of course, should Aaron Rodgers land here, Gordon will be of value to Denver but I would think Williams ceiling increases as well, he could see carries vs 5 or 6 in the box with Rodgers under Center. 

It was '03 actually when Portis was traded to Washington...I looked

 
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