RB Jordan Mason, SF (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

It may / probably will be short-lived, but enjoy the ride while it last. If you're not a CMC owner I wouldn't go hog wild on FAAB, but you will. What if CMC gets hurt again after returning?

 

[BespokeJort]

What would you flip him for in Redraft, what's his real value right now in your opinion?

Very hard to say. I'm the one who said Kirk or a similar player. I should have mentioned someone who actually performed last weekend. And really what I was saying is something like 4th - 6th rounder, likely a WR.

But other things like bench depth (short in my league), IR spots (none in my league), how many teams make the playoffs, even adding FA $ to an offer, can all play into value calculations. Many potential variables.

Mason's value is obviously high right now. It gets a bit higher trade-wise, though IMO not a ton, if we learn CMC is out 2-3 more games. That feels built-in to Mason's value to me. But if Shanahan says he expects CMC to play next weekend, Mason's value will drop by a lot. At that point, he turns into insurance, and people don't like paying for insurance.

Today and tomorrow may be the high point for Mason absent leaks or news on CMC. Yes, I have him. If somebody offered me Metcalf, D. Smith, Aiyuk, I'd think hard. Pickens too. I like what I saw there.

Agreed, today is the day to trade him
If and only if CMC misses their next game, his next high point would be Sat Night/Sun Morn depending on when that final news is released
I expect CMC to be Questionable all week

I’d be surprised if CMC played week 2. To be honest, it wouldn’t shock me if he hit short-term IR.

Here's the thing though. What happens if he does play Week 2?

Let's role play. You have Mason. I'm a CMC owner without Mason. I offer you Hopkins for him. You turn it down because you have a gut feeling CMC is out longer.

And then CMC is announced as starter for Week 2.

What do you do?

Hold Mason to see how the week plays out?

Let's say CMC dominates snaps/touches. Mason get a couple points on a garbage time check down that goes nowhere.

Then what?

Meekly offer him to me for Hopkins?

It's a no, at that point.

OK. And then what? Week 3 comes around and it's more of the same. A

Are you holding all year? For a few weeks? At what point do you consider dropping?

There will be other players you want to pick up. You're really going to curse yourself with a roster clogger who has no value outside of an injury?

And by doing so, you're freeing me, as the CMC owner, to play the waiver wire better than I could have had I been forced to hold my handcuff.

I mean yes if CMC turns around and has a clean bill of health and a full workload for the entire rest of the season Mason turns into a pumpkin and is not worth a middling wr.

The interesting part is that suddenly looks like a much less likely outcome than it did two days ago.

If your team is decent already and the marginal improvement from your existing wr3 to Kirk is no more than a couple ppg, it makes sense to value a guy whose true value is either 0 or a high-end RB1 a lot more than him.

The point in saying I wouldn’t trade him for Kirk is, yes, if that’s all I can get for him, I am betting on him

EDIT: your “how long do you hold him if cmc looks healthy” question is a good one but depends a lot on your format and roster space. If you’re in a league where high end handcuffs are rostered, you’re probably looking at roughly his equivalent on the wire and I’d probably roster him all year. Short bench league, I’d want to see ~a month of CMC taking full workloads and not having setbacks

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Some folks slipped him off waivers prior to Week 1, we can bellyache about different Redraft leagues but in leagues that keep short benches, Mason was around
And that also required making a cut or release of someone you thought was pretty good on Draft night for a lottery ticket until that started to cash on MNF

-For those folks, flipping Mason for something decent, a guy you just got off waivers, I can see those folks flipping him for a TE or WR2/3 type they need

And think about this, when CMC returns which he will, what is the split level and how will that make Mason an auto start in your line up?
The only way Mason is of any real value on your roster is if CMC is out
You cannot expect to get RB2 numbers out of 8-10 touches a week form Mason if he even gets that when CMC returns

You already kind of won a 10:1 or 12:1 shot and now you want to double down, that's fine but you might also see all those chips slide over to the dealer on the next hand
You feel great this morning because of last night but that feeling will wear off when practice starts this week and we hear more from the Niners which btw, who can trust them?
Can you trust any of these 32 teams?

I think Masonites should at least listen to offers or knock on CMC door and see what they can offer
Same person with CMC also had Puca in one of my Redrafts, should be an interesting exchange with him.
Not sure what I would have to do to flip the script and pry CMC from him
Highly unlikely anyone would entertain that anyways

 

[Desert_Power]

I'm the one who said Kirk or a similar player. I should have mentioned someone who actually performed last weekend. And really what I was saying is something like 4th - 6th rounder, likely a WR.

I think Kirk is a great comparison point. He started out slow last year but ended up at WR32 in PPG. In leagues with larger line-ups, that can be a very valuable player. In smaller leagues, you can probably find that production on your wire each week.

Knowing your league is always the first thing to consider.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Rather than bicker with each other, let's try and help. I have a link to a NY Post report
Mason getting the Niners in trouble so I researched this and then the smoking gun is said by Shanny himself about his attitude towards Mason.
So I went in looking for one thing about Mason's Friday night comments and came out with more information

Jordan Mason ‘mad’ after revealing 49ers’ curious handling of Christian McCaffrey’s injury

49ers running back Christian McCaffrey’s absence from “Monday Night Football” came as a shock to many fans, but not his teammates.

nypost.com

Here is the article but I want to zero in on Shanahan after the game

“I never told Jordan he was going to start,” Shanahan said after the game. “I told him he had to be ready a bunch, but it might’ve been Bobby [Turner] or somebody trying to pump him up. He knew he was going to have to play a lot, it wasn’t going to be like usual.”

Play a lot...not going to be like usual...I take that as most of the time Shanahan prefers not to split up loads and if CMC is healthy than he is going to see most of the touches
You all can read it differently but I would say the clock is ticking on Mason's value. You can hope for CMC to stay off the field which we never do around here but outside of that,
not a rosy picture the head coach paints IMHO

 

[BespokeJort]

Rather than bicker with each other, let's try and help. I have a link to a NY Post report
Mason getting the Niners in trouble so I researched this and then the smoking gun is said by Shanny himself about his attitude towards Mason.
So I went in looking for one thing about Mason's Friday night comments and came out with more information

Jordan Mason ‘mad’ after revealing 49ers’ curious handling of Christian McCaffrey’s injury

49ers running back Christian McCaffrey’s absence from “Monday Night Football” came as a shock to many fans, but not his teammates.

nypost.com

Here is the article but I want to zero in on Shanahan after the game

“I never told Jordan he was going to start,” Shanahan said after the game. “I told him he had to be ready a bunch, but it might’ve been Bobby [Turner] or somebody trying to pump him up. He knew he was going to have to play a lot, it wasn’t going to be like usual.”

Play a lot...not going to be like usual...I take that as most of the time Shanahan prefers not to split up loads and if CMC is healthy than he is going to see most of the touches
You all can read it differently but I would say the clock is ticking on Mason's value. You can hope for CMC to stay off the field which we never do around here but outside of that,
not a rosy picture the head coach paints IMHO

Not trying to bicker (and fully acknowledge this may have been Mason’s best game of the season) but it seems extremely likely that this specific press conference is entirely Shanny lying his *** off to avoid a fine, so I would not be super inclined to read deeply into the wording

 

[Adso]

As someone who picked up Mason last week wondering what to do with him now, I appreciate the debate here.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

As someone who picked up Mason last week wondering what to do with him now, I appreciate the debate here.

You're in a win/win situation:

A) The CMC injury is a lot worse than people originally thought and he misses extended time. You not have a brand new RB1 for free.

B) You ship Mason off for a big haul, where the other Owner thinks option A will happen, and build out the rest of your team.

C) You hold on to Mason, and if CMC does return, worst case you have a high-end RB handcuff who may have a little stand alone value.

You're sitting pretty.

 

[Gatorade]

I got snipped in the draft taking Mason to back up CMC. Luckily, he was dropped before the season and I picked him up as soon as I could.

 

[wlwiles]

Been thinking about this all day today...

I have Mason in a 1QB dynasty league. I'm fairly deep at RB already without him. If CMC misses more games (which I think is fairly likely) he'll absolutely start in my flex though, so I'm not offering him to the CMC owner (yet). I've already traded away some future picks for veterans for a title run, so being pick-needy and older team...if the CMC owner came to me and wanted Mason here's where I am:

I'd ask for a first (it'd be late), offering Mason plus a third

I'd decline a late 2nd straight up.

I'd try to offer Mason for a player upgrade (Pittman for Rice) or to get younger (Evans for JSN).

 

[ATB]

Anyone who wouldn't take Kirk straight-up right now for Mason with the information we have is going to left holding an empty bag in the next few weeks.

Maybe you think he's a league winner. Okay. That's fine. Bet on it, then. No one is going to pay you a starter for a handcuff. The price may be higher right now because we don't know if CMC is back next week or not. But the second CMC is announce as the starter, whether Week 2 or 3, Mason's value plummets.

You can be the guy who holds a handcuff all season long and clogs your bench or you can trade him now to patch a need on your roster.

If I was weak at WR and had Mason, I would smash accept Kirk.

And when CMC re-aggravates the injury in week 8?

That WR3 isn’t winning you a league. A top 7 rb will.

Like I said... Bet on it, then. Just tell the CMC owner you're not trading Mason regardless. Because you're living in crazy town if you think anyone is trading you a starter for a handcuff.

Someone else in here said they offered Hopkins for Mason. That's an overpay. Kirk is an overpay. But if those are guys you don't need on a team where you have CMC and don't have Mason, it's understandable.

But you guys are talking like you want a guy who taken in the first 3 rounds of draft or something.

I know it's exciting for a guy to pop-off but you gotta find your perspective.

Where guys got drafted at is completely irrelevant to now. Situations change very fast in the NFL.

Last year folks were screaming to sell Puka after two weeks for guys who were drafted way ahead of him in drafts, too. He went on to have the best rookie WR season we’ve ever seen.

You probably would’ve felt pretty dumb if you’d have traded him for a starter WR3 then.

Puka wasn't a career backup who slid into a start because of injury.

It's disingenuous to compare the two.

Mason is Cinderella approaching midnight and you don't know exactly when he turns into a pumpkin. Sure, it's fun to own a guy who pops off. But if you don't have a reasonable expectation for him to continue his workload, it's short-sighted to not attempt to improve your roster long-term.

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

 

[BespokeJort]

Anyone who wouldn't take Kirk straight-up right now for Mason with the information we have is going to left holding an empty bag in the next few weeks.

Maybe you think he's a league winner. Okay. That's fine. Bet on it, then. No one is going to pay you a starter for a handcuff. The price may be higher right now because we don't know if CMC is back next week or not. But the second CMC is announce as the starter, whether Week 2 or 3, Mason's value plummets.

You can be the guy who holds a handcuff all season long and clogs your bench or you can trade him now to patch a need on your roster.

If I was weak at WR and had Mason, I would smash accept Kirk.

And when CMC re-aggravates the injury in week 8?

That WR3 isn’t winning you a league. A top 7 rb will.

Like I said... Bet on it, then. Just tell the CMC owner you're not trading Mason regardless. Because you're living in crazy town if you think anyone is trading you a starter for a handcuff.

Someone else in here said they offered Hopkins for Mason. That's an overpay. Kirk is an overpay. But if those are guys you don't need on a team where you have CMC and don't have Mason, it's understandable.

But you guys are talking like you want a guy who taken in the first 3 rounds of draft or something.

I know it's exciting for a guy to pop-off but you gotta find your perspective.

Where guys got drafted at is completely irrelevant to now. Situations change very fast in the NFL.

Last year folks were screaming to sell Puka after two weeks for guys who were drafted way ahead of him in drafts, too. He went on to have the best rookie WR season we’ve ever seen.

You probably would’ve felt pretty dumb if you’d have traded him for a starter WR3 then.

Puka wasn't a career backup who slid into a start because of injury.

It's disingenuous to compare the two.

Mason is Cinderella approaching midnight and you don't know exactly when he turns into a pumpkin. Sure, it's fun to own a guy who pops off. But if you don't have a reasonable expectation for him to continue his workload, it's short-sighted to not attempt to improve your roster long-term.

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

Would you care to place a friendly wager on whether CMC plays week 2? I’ve got 20 bucks here says no.

Ultimately the difference in positions here appears to be inferring different amounts of fire from the smoke

 

[ATB]

Would you care to place a friendly wager on whether CMC plays week 2? I’ve got 20 bucks here says no.

Ultimately the difference in positions here appears to be inferring different amounts of fire from the smoke

I don't know if he plays. Neither do you. That's the point. The bet we're talking about is how long you choose to hold Mason before pulling the trigger on a trade.

It's one big game of chicken. Who blinks first. I'll offer something like Hopkins or a package deal where the other owner upgrades at a position in exchange for Mason right now, specifically because I don't know what's happening. But the second the picture becomes clear, as in CMC is the lead back again, Mason's value plummets to what it was before... which is a high-end handcuff.

If you or anyone else wants a bench clogger over an upgrade at another position, that's your prerogative. But to me it comes off neglectful. Not saying I haven't done the same thing in the past but I've learned it's more a detriment to play the handcuff game when I could use my bench to bet on players I believe can earn more value outside of an injury.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Anyone who wouldn't take Kirk straight-up right now for Mason with the information we have is going to left holding an empty bag in the next few weeks.

Maybe you think he's a league winner. Okay. That's fine. Bet on it, then. No one is going to pay you a starter for a handcuff. The price may be higher right now because we don't know if CMC is back next week or not. But the second CMC is announce as the starter, whether Week 2 or 3, Mason's value plummets.

You can be the guy who holds a handcuff all season long and clogs your bench or you can trade him now to patch a need on your roster.

If I was weak at WR and had Mason, I would smash accept Kirk.

And when CMC re-aggravates the injury in week 8?

That WR3 isn’t winning you a league. A top 7 rb will.

Like I said... Bet on it, then. Just tell the CMC owner you're not trading Mason regardless. Because you're living in crazy town if you think anyone is trading you a starter for a handcuff.

Someone else in here said they offered Hopkins for Mason. That's an overpay. Kirk is an overpay. But if those are guys you don't need on a team where you have CMC and don't have Mason, it's understandable.

But you guys are talking like you want a guy who taken in the first 3 rounds of draft or something.

I know it's exciting for a guy to pop-off but you gotta find your perspective.

Where guys got drafted at is completely irrelevant to now. Situations change very fast in the NFL.

Last year folks were screaming to sell Puka after two weeks for guys who were drafted way ahead of him in drafts, too. He went on to have the best rookie WR season we’ve ever seen.

You probably would’ve felt pretty dumb if you’d have traded him for a starter WR3 then.

Puka wasn't a career backup who slid into a start because of injury.

It's disingenuous to compare the two.

Mason is Cinderella approaching midnight and you don't know exactly when he turns into a pumpkin. Sure, it's fun to own a guy who pops off. But if you don't have a reasonable expectation for him to continue his workload, it's short-sighted to not attempt to improve your roster long-term.

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

I see the goal posts on these imaginary trades have moved a bit. We’re at DJ Moore now, eh? Quite a chasm in value in guys like DHop and Kirk to DJ Moore, no? Yes, if someone offered me a high-end WR2 for Mason right now I’d accept. But the reward to holding Mason far outweighs the risk for me to move him for the WR 35.

And concerning Puka, let’s not pretend he was a top-tier prospect coming into the league. He was a 5th round pick and was on literally every leagues waiver wire before week 1 last season.

 

[Gally]

If you or anyone else wants a bench clogger over an upgrade at another position, that's your prerogative. But to me it comes off neglectful. Not saying I haven't done the same thing in the past but I've learned it's more a detriment to play the handcuff game when I could use my bench to bet on players I believe can earn more value outside of an injury.

I guess this is a philosphical difference. I don't think every "handcuff" is created equal. The handcuffs I will entertain being a "roster clogger" are the kind that if they get the opportunity can be difference makers. Mason is one of those guys. This isn't like a Gainwell or Mattison. We know what they are. They aren't difference makers. No need to clog your roster with that.

But Mason is a difference maker. He showed last night that if/when he gets a chance he is an auto start with RB1 upside any given week. That has value as a "bench clogger". That to me is the difference here. Couple that with an injury that is very unknown to the extent on CMC and he has more value on my team (especially when factoring in the price I had to pay to acquire him) then getting a WR3-ish player like Kirk.

 

[-OZ-]

Thoughts? I offered Mason for either a 2025 2nd or Roman Wilson. Dynasty. Roman might be asking too much.

 

[ATB]

Anyone who wouldn't take Kirk straight-up right now for Mason with the information we have is going to left holding an empty bag in the next few weeks.

Maybe you think he's a league winner. Okay. That's fine. Bet on it, then. No one is going to pay you a starter for a handcuff. The price may be higher right now because we don't know if CMC is back next week or not. But the second CMC is announce as the starter, whether Week 2 or 3, Mason's value plummets.

You can be the guy who holds a handcuff all season long and clogs your bench or you can trade him now to patch a need on your roster.

If I was weak at WR and had Mason, I would smash accept Kirk.

And when CMC re-aggravates the injury in week 8?

That WR3 isn’t winning you a league. A top 7 rb will.

Like I said... Bet on it, then. Just tell the CMC owner you're not trading Mason regardless. Because you're living in crazy town if you think anyone is trading you a starter for a handcuff.

Someone else in here said they offered Hopkins for Mason. That's an overpay. Kirk is an overpay. But if those are guys you don't need on a team where you have CMC and don't have Mason, it's understandable.

But you guys are talking like you want a guy who taken in the first 3 rounds of draft or something.

I know it's exciting for a guy to pop-off but you gotta find your perspective.

Where guys got drafted at is completely irrelevant to now. Situations change very fast in the NFL.

Last year folks were screaming to sell Puka after two weeks for guys who were drafted way ahead of him in drafts, too. He went on to have the best rookie WR season we’ve ever seen.

You probably would’ve felt pretty dumb if you’d have traded him for a starter WR3 then.

Puka wasn't a career backup who slid into a start because of injury.

It's disingenuous to compare the two.

Mason is Cinderella approaching midnight and you don't know exactly when he turns into a pumpkin. Sure, it's fun to own a guy who pops off. But if you don't have a reasonable expectation for him to continue his workload, it's short-sighted to not attempt to improve your roster long-term.

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

I see the goal posts on these imaginary trades have moved a bit. We’re at DJ Moore now, eh? Quite a chasm in value in guys like DHop and Kirk to DJ Moore, no? Yes, if someone offered me a high-end WR2 for Mason right now I’d accept. But the reward to holding Mason far outweighs the risk for me to move him for the WR 35.

And concerning Puka, let’s not pretend he was a top-tier prospect coming into the league. He was a 5th round pick and was on literally every leagues waiver wire before week 1 last season.

Might need to re-read what I wrote if you think I'm offering DJ Moore for Mason.

Someone else said they'd need a startable WR2 for Mason, which is why I said that if you're asking for someone like DJ Moore then you're being unrealistic.

My point is, if you're turning down Hopkins or Kirk or guys in that decent-bench-flex-play range for Mason right now, you're neglecting your duties as a team manager. Sure, he could pop off for another game or two. But the likelihood of him becoming a season-long bell cow league-winner is so small that you're just burning found money at this point.

 

[Gally]

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

I don't think this is 100% true either. It would take at least 3 weeks of CMC being himself with normal workload before Mason becomes a pumpkin and even then he still has league winning upside if the heavy workload, aging RB gets hurt again.

To say that CMC being announced as going to start immediately makes Mason worthless is not a true statement (IMO).

 

[Gally]

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

No it does not. That is irrelevant to their value. Owners that base their offers on that are hurting themselves. Actual information on usage, role, performance in real games matter a lot more than where someone decided to draft a guy 3 or 4 weeks ago.

 

[-OZ-]

if you're turning down Hopkins or Kirk or guys in that decent-bench-flex-play range for Mason right now, you're neglecting your duties as a team manager

Really depends on your team. If you have multiple good starting options and some depth, it can be worth keeping Mason for the upside.
FWIW, in my only redraft, Kirk is my wr5. Not a big enough upgrade from Bateman imo to trade Mason for him if I didn’t have him. But I’m not trading him for Mason either (not the CMC owner)

 

[-OZ-]

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

No it does not. That is irrelevant to their value. Owners that base their offers on that are hurting themselves. Actual information on usage, role, performance in real games matter a lot more than where someone decided to draft a guy 3 or 4 weeks ago.

It only matters because we haven’t seen enough to change opinions significantly. Or at least I haven’t.

 

[Gally]

My point is, if you're turning down Hopkins or Kirk or guys in that decent-bench-flex-play range for Mason right now, you're neglecting your duties as a team manager. Sure, he could pop off for another game or two. But the likelihood of him becoming a season-long bell cow league-winner is so small that you're just burning found money at this point.

What really is the value of a "decent-bench-flex-play" range of player? That to me seems like a bench clogger WR equivalent as those are typically fairly easy to find and come cheap in trade. I typically have 2 or 3 of those guys already on my bench. I would rather have an RB1 upside guy like Mason than another of those type guys. That to me is not really upgrading my roster.

 

[ATB]

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

I don't think this is 100% true either. It would take at least 3 weeks of CMC being himself with normal workload before Mason becomes a pumpkin and even then he still has league winning upside if the heavy workload, aging RB gets hurt again.

To say that CMC being announced as going to start immediately makes Mason worthless is not a true statement (IMO).

That's fair. But the point still stands. His value BEGINS to plummet the moment CMC is back. If I had Mason, I'd be working with the CMC manager to come to a fair deal right now. He'll never have more value than now.

Maybe Mason starts Week 2. Maybe he does great... Maybe he doesn't?

There are so many different ways this could go that it's kind of insane to not just capitalize on it while you can.

We all know Shanahan wants to run a bell cow. And when his starter goes down, he slots in another guy who gets the whole load. But when his bell cow in back, the other guy goes back to a pumpkin.

It happened with Elijah Mitchell too. CMC will get the full load when he's back, right or wrong. I'd be cashing in on Mason now.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

I don't think this is 100% true either. It would take at least 3 weeks of CMC being himself with normal workload before Mason becomes a pumpkin and even then he still has league winning upside if the heavy workload, aging RB gets hurt again.

To say that CMC being announced as going to start immediately makes Mason worthless is not a true statement (IMO).

That's fair. But the point still stands. His value BEGINS to plummet the moment CMC is back. If I had Mason, I'd be working with the CMC manager to come to a fair deal right now. He'll never have more value than now.

Maybe Mason starts Week 2. Maybe he does great... Maybe he doesn't?

There are so many different ways this could go that it's kind of insane to not just capitalize on it while you can.

We all know Shanahan wants to run a bell cow. And when his starter goes down, he slots in another guy who gets the whole load. But when his bell cow in back, the other guy goes back to a pumpkin.

It happened with Elijah Mitchell too. CMC will get the full load when he's back, right or wrong. I'd be cashing in on Mason now.

Elijah Mitchell would injure himself reading this post, apples to oranges.

 

[Gally]

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

No it does not. That is irrelevant to their value. Owners that base their offers on that are hurting themselves. Actual information on usage, role, performance in real games matter a lot more than where someone decided to draft a guy 3 or 4 weeks ago.

It only matters because we haven’t seen enough to change opinions significantly. Or at least I haven’t.

To some players I think it matters more than other players. Pollard vs Spears and Moss vs Brown are two situations that I think have a lot more clarity after one week then they did three weeks when drafting players. A guy like Olave or ARSB wouldn't really change my valuation of them after the one bad week.......but by and large the round I drafted those guys really doesn't matter either if I am working a trade involving any of those players at this time.

 

[ATB]

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

No it does not. That is irrelevant to their value. Owners that base their offers on that are hurting themselves. Actual information on usage, role, performance in real games matter a lot more than where someone decided to draft a guy 3 or 4 weeks ago.

It only matters because we haven’t seen enough to change opinions significantly. Or at least I haven’t.

That's the point. We're trying to make a deal now, TODAY, after Week 1... Values aren't going to change drastically yet. So yes, where a guy was taken in the draft still matters. Today. The day we're negotiating.

 

[ATB]

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

I don't think this is 100% true either. It would take at least 3 weeks of CMC being himself with normal workload before Mason becomes a pumpkin and even then he still has league winning upside if the heavy workload, aging RB gets hurt again.

To say that CMC being announced as going to start immediately makes Mason worthless is not a true statement (IMO).

That's fair. But the point still stands. His value BEGINS to plummet the moment CMC is back. If I had Mason, I'd be working with the CMC manager to come to a fair deal right now. He'll never have more value than now.

Maybe Mason starts Week 2. Maybe he does great... Maybe he doesn't?

There are so many different ways this could go that it's kind of insane to not just capitalize on it while you can.

We all know Shanahan wants to run a bell cow. And when his starter goes down, he slots in another guy who gets the whole load. But when his bell cow in back, the other guy goes back to a pumpkin.

It happened with Elijah Mitchell too. CMC will get the full load when he's back, right or wrong. I'd be cashing in on Mason now.

Elijah Mitchell would injure himself reading this post, apples to oranges.

You're being disingenuous then. The last guy who backed up CMC became a bell cow in his absence and returned to a bench warmer when CMC was back. It's apples to apples. His injury history isn't relevant. He was healthy when CMC came back and was relegated to a nothing burger because that is simply Shanahan's offensive strategy. He wants one guy out there. He doesn't like splitting the load.

We can say, "Well ok but what if it's different this time?" Why would it be? Everything is the same except the name on the back of the jersey of the backup.

 

[Gally]

We can say, "Well ok but what if it's different this time?" Why would it be? Everything is the same except the name on the back of the jersey of the backup.

Usage is the same for sure. What isn't the same is CMC's status. Based on all your comments you are 100% sure that once CMC plays he assumes his full time, completely healthy, bell cow role with no increased injury risk. At least that is how I take your "turning into a pumpkin" comments. I would agree if this was something like a broken finger or less risky injury situation.

CMC having calf/achilles issues is highly likely to be lingering issue that is easily aggravated playing his normal bell cow role. Because of that there is no "pumpkin" point for me. CMC will be at risk for aggravation for the rest of the season. That is the key reason that Mason's value isn't pumpkin like. So while his value will dip (and I think that only for non-CMC owners) once CMC is back in the game it doesn't go to zero. And if I am a CMC owner I am still trying to acquire Mason every week that I don't have him. Granted if CMC is playing Mason's value dips so I hope to get him at a discount from today but if I was the guy with Mason I wouldn't be dipping too much and it would still take someone better than Kirk. I would need to get an auto start guy for my lineup based on my roster. That isn't necessarily a WR2 type guy but someone that is significantly better than my bench guys.

 

[BespokeJort]

For what it’s worth, since I haven’t seen it posted here (the second is relatively good news for CMC owners but neither seems to indicate smooth sailing season-long):

https://fxtwitter.com/drjessemorse/status/1833349165952151791?s=46&t=TeGV-WnhJLZUOQoiLrvzEw

https://fxtwitter.com/drjessemorse/status/1833349165952151791?s=46&t=TeGV-WnhJLZUOQoiLrvzEw

 

[WhoCares]

If you or anyone else wants a bench clogger over an upgrade at another position, that's your prerogative. But to me it comes off neglectful. Not saying I haven't done the same thing in the past but I've learned it's more a detriment to play the handcuff game when I could use my bench to bet on players I believe can earn more value outside of an injury.

I guess this is a philosphical difference. I don't think every "handcuff" is created equal. The handcuffs I will entertain being a "roster clogger" are the kind that if they get the opportunity can be difference makers. Mason is one of those guys. This isn't like a Gainwell or Mattison. We know what they are. They aren't difference makers. No need to clog your roster with that.

But Mason is a difference maker. He showed last night that if/when he gets a chance he is an auto start with RB1 upside any given week. That has value as a "bench clogger". That to me is the difference here. Couple that with an injury that is very unknown to the extent on CMC and he has more value on my team (especially when factoring in the price I had to pay to acquire him) then getting a WR3-ish player like Kirk.

What we know about the injury to CMC is that an entire offseason managing it wasn’t enough rest/rehab/healing for him to play in week 1.

You’re right about being a difference maker and not being some rando cuff. I’m not trading him to anyone, including the CMC owner. I mean, I’d trade for the right price, but that price is astronomical right now. No one would pay it. I sure wouldn’t be initiating the trade, would definitely let the CMC owner sweat all week, let time create more pressure on them (the Q tag all week, are they telling the truth about him now, reading practice reports). Once they realize how less stressful and stronger their team would be with the whole season ahead of them if they make a trade to protect their #1 OA pick then they come to me. Much stronger position to be in.

Leverage in a Mason trade one usually doesn’t have if trying to trade away a handcuff:
1) Superb offense with a coach known for his RB production/commitment.

2) Handcuff just showed they’re capable of putting up a top 10 performance against a top 3 defense.

3) No competition behind the cuff.

4) Entire season ahead.

5) Cuff protects a #1 OA pick.


I’ll happily hold Mason.

 

[icehouse]

High upside backups have value. I'd rather have a winning lotto ticket than depth.

 

[Football Jones]

I said before the season that where there's smoke, there's fire. CMC has been dealing with this since week 17 of last year. The optics are terrible.

No way I trade Mason (I have him rostered), even in a dynasty league. You simply won't be able to get enough right now to offset his upside.

 

[Faust]

Next Gen Stats
Our new Tackle Probability model can evaluate a ball carrier's ability to evade tackles.

In Week 1, @49ers RB Jordan Mason led the league with 13 missed tackles forced—five more than the next closest ball carrier.

: Week 1 Leaders in Missed Tackles Forced

x.com

x.com

 

[JoeJoe88]

Next Gen Stats
Our new Tackle Probability model can evaluate a ball carrier's ability to evade tackles.

In Week 1, @49ers RB Jordan Mason led the league with 13 missed tackles forced—five more than the next closest ball carrier.

: Week 1 Leaders in Missed Tackles Forced

x.com

x.com

JAG

 

[icehouse]

I said before the season that where there's smoke, there's fire. CMC has been dealing with this since week 17 of last year. The optics are terrible.

No way I trade Mason (I have him rostered), even in a dynasty league. You simply won't be able to get enough right now to offset his upside.

Hmm....what's his value in dynasty?

 

[Football Jones]

I said before the season that where there's smoke, there's fire. CMC has been dealing with this since week 17 of last year. The optics are terrible.

No way I trade Mason (I have him rostered), even in a dynasty league. You simply won't be able to get enough right now to offset his upside.

Hmm....what's his value in dynasty?

Good question. CMC will be 29 this offseason with a somewhat extensive injury history. Mason is 3 years younger.

If somebody offered me Mason for a 2nd (and I'm a contender with a need at RB), I smash accept given his upside as CMC's replacement. Late 2nds in FF have a pretty low hit rate. A 3rd would be a joke and a 1st is too rich given the unsettled situation.

 

[Navin Johnson]

The same Evan Engram that just had 5 yards receiving? No thank you

noted

Anybody else here in the "shark pool" who wouldn't sell mason for a starter at another position?

I think even if CM is healthy, Mason is a flex play. SF has their sights on winning the SB and they need CM healthy in February. He won't see the vloume he did last year

 

[Navin Johnson]

I own Mason and it would take a pretty good offer from McCaffrey owner to get him. Wouldn't even consider the Christian Kirk type offer that someone posted above. In fact I would be insulted and would proceed to refuse to trade him to that owner out of spite

Was offered Nico for Mason and Shaheed. Rejected

 

[ATB]

We can say, "Well ok but what if it's different this time?" Why would it be? Everything is the same except the name on the back of the jersey of the backup.

Usage is the same for sure. What isn't the same is CMC's status. Based on all your comments you are 100% sure that once CMC plays he assumes his full time, completely healthy, bell cow role with no increased injury risk. At least that is how I take your "turning into a pumpkin" comments. I would agree if this was something like a broken finger or less risky injury situation.

CMC having calf/achilles issues is highly likely to be lingering issue that is easily aggravated playing his normal bell cow role. Because of that there is no "pumpkin" point for me. CMC will be at risk for aggravation for the rest of the season. That is the key reason that Mason's value isn't pumpkin like. So while his value will dip (and I think that only for non-CMC owners) once CMC is back in the game it doesn't go to zero. And if I am a CMC owner I am still trying to acquire Mason every week that I don't have him. Granted if CMC is playing Mason's value dips so I hope to get him at a discount from today but if I was the guy with Mason I wouldn't be dipping too much and it would still take someone better than Kirk. I would need to get an auto start guy for my lineup based on my roster. That isn't necessarily a WR2 type guy but someone that is significantly better than my bench guys.

I don't see how you're saying some of this as if it's fact. The only thing we know for certain is that Shanahan does not do RBBC. He simply doesn't. He's not putting a guy out there that can't handle a full load. Sure, maybe that means CMC is out the first 3 weeks of the year. Ok. But then? Do you think he's coming back on the field to get 15 carries and split the backfield? Do you think that's why they traded for him? Or why they paid him?

So yeah, Mason is absolutely heading toward midnight. He will turn into a pumpkin. His value will plummet.

If you think there's some reality in which Jordan Mason earns a split backfield with CM-****ing-C you are dreaming.

 

[King of the Jungle]

The same Evan Engram that just had 5 yards receiving? No thank you

noted

Anybody else here in the "shark pool" who wouldn't sell mason for a starter at another position?

I think even if CM is healthy, Mason is a flex play. SF has their sights on winning the SB and they need CM healthy in February. He won't see the vloume he did last year

Historically, this is not how Kyle operates. I think it is the smart thing to do, I am just not confident he will proceed with that plan. CMC is much better in the passing game and allows Kyle ultimate flexibility in play calling.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Man I wish the Mason owner in my league was as desperate to unload him as @ATB is. You can have all the Christian Kirks you want.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Anyone who wouldn't take Kirk straight-up right now for Mason with the information we have is going to left holding an empty bag in the next few weeks.

Maybe you think he's a league winner. Okay. That's fine. Bet on it, then. No one is going to pay you a starter for a handcuff. The price may be higher right now because we don't know if CMC is back next week or not. But the second CMC is announce as the starter, whether Week 2 or 3, Mason's value plummets.

You can be the guy who holds a handcuff all season long and clogs your bench or you can trade him now to patch a need on your roster.

If I was weak at WR and had Mason, I would smash accept Kirk.

And when CMC re-aggravates the injury in week 8?

That WR3 isn’t winning you a league. A top 7 rb will.

Like I said... Bet on it, then. Just tell the CMC owner you're not trading Mason regardless. Because you're living in crazy town if you think anyone is trading you a starter for a handcuff.

Someone else in here said they offered Hopkins for Mason. That's an overpay. Kirk is an overpay. But if those are guys you don't need on a team where you have CMC and don't have Mason, it's understandable.

But you guys are talking like you want a guy who taken in the first 3 rounds of draft or something.

I know it's exciting for a guy to pop-off but you gotta find your perspective.

Where guys got drafted at is completely irrelevant to now. Situations change very fast in the NFL.

Last year folks were screaming to sell Puka after two weeks for guys who were drafted way ahead of him in drafts, too. He went on to have the best rookie WR season we’ve ever seen.

You probably would’ve felt pretty dumb if you’d have traded him for a starter WR3 then.

Puka wasn't a career backup who slid into a start because of injury.

It's disingenuous to compare the two.

Mason is Cinderella approaching midnight and you don't know exactly when he turns into a pumpkin. Sure, it's fun to own a guy who pops off. But if you don't have a reasonable expectation for him to continue his workload, it's short-sighted to not attempt to improve your roster long-term.

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

He played 2 years in the league, mostly behind the best RB in the league. Not your prototypical "career backup"

 

[BespokeJort]

I own Mason and it would take a pretty good offer from McCaffrey owner to get him. Wouldn't even consider the Christian Kirk type offer that someone posted above. In fact I would be insulted and would proceed to refuse to trade him to that owner out of spite

Was offered Nico for Mason and Shaheed. Rejected

This I would have to consider

 

[efactor]

I own Mason and it would take a pretty good offer from McCaffrey owner to get him. Wouldn't even consider the Christian Kirk type offer that someone posted above. In fact I would be insulted and would proceed to refuse to trade him to that owner out of spite

Was offered Nico for Mason and Shaheed. Rejected

This I would have to consider

This is one I would smash accept

 

[BespokeJort]

I own Mason and it would take a pretty good offer from McCaffrey owner to get him. Wouldn't even consider the Christian Kirk type offer that someone posted above. In fact I would be insulted and would proceed to refuse to trade him to that owner out of spite

Was offered Nico for Mason and Shaheed. Rejected

This I would have to consider

This is one I would smash accept

Not clear if we’re talking dynasty or redraft but leaning towards same

 

[ATB]

Man I wish the Mason owner in my league was as desperate to unload him as @ATB is. You can have all the Christian Kirks you want.

I don't own him. I have CMC in one league though. I'm talking hypotheticals. If I had Mason, I would make sure I traded him to the CMC owner before CMC is back, that's all I'm saying. The second Mason is relegated back to a backup, the trade price plummets.

 

[BespokeJort]

We can say, "Well ok but what if it's different this time?" Why would it be? Everything is the same except the name on the back of the jersey of the backup.

Usage is the same for sure. What isn't the same is CMC's status. Based on all your comments you are 100% sure that once CMC plays he assumes his full time, completely healthy, bell cow role with no increased injury risk. At least that is how I take your "turning into a pumpkin" comments. I would agree if this was something like a broken finger or less risky injury situation.

CMC having calf/achilles issues is highly likely to be lingering issue that is easily aggravated playing his normal bell cow role. Because of that there is no "pumpkin" point for me. CMC will be at risk for aggravation for the rest of the season. That is the key reason that Mason's value isn't pumpkin like. So while his value will dip (and I think that only for non-CMC owners) once CMC is back in the game it doesn't go to zero. And if I am a CMC owner I am still trying to acquire Mason every week that I don't have him. Granted if CMC is playing Mason's value dips so I hope to get him at a discount from today but if I was the guy with Mason I wouldn't be dipping too much and it would still take someone better than Kirk. I would need to get an auto start guy for my lineup based on my roster. That isn't necessarily a WR2 type guy but someone that is significantly better than my bench guys.

I don't see how you're saying some of this as if it's fact. The only thing we know for certain is that Shanahan does not do RBBC. He simply doesn't. He's not putting a guy out there that can't handle a full load. Sure, maybe that means CMC is out the first 3 weeks of the year. Ok. But then? Do you think he's coming back on the field to get 15 carries and split the backfield? Do you think that's why they traded for him? Or why they paid him?

So yeah, Mason is absolutely heading toward midnight. He will turn into a pumpkin. His value will plummet.

If you think there's some reality in which Jordan Mason earns a split backfield with CM-****ing-C you are dreaming.

Shanahan certainly has his preferences and tendencies, but he also knows his number one asset has a balky Achilles. This isn’t the parable of the scorpion and the frog

ETA: if he gets him back and immediately starts giving him 30 touches a game that’s probably more likely to result in maintaining Mason’s value than getting 0-40% if a timeshare

 

[ATB]

Anyone who wouldn't take Kirk straight-up right now for Mason with the information we have is going to left holding an empty bag in the next few weeks.

Maybe you think he's a league winner. Okay. That's fine. Bet on it, then. No one is going to pay you a starter for a handcuff. The price may be higher right now because we don't know if CMC is back next week or not. But the second CMC is announce as the starter, whether Week 2 or 3, Mason's value plummets.

You can be the guy who holds a handcuff all season long and clogs your bench or you can trade him now to patch a need on your roster.

If I was weak at WR and had Mason, I would smash accept Kirk.

And when CMC re-aggravates the injury in week 8?

That WR3 isn’t winning you a league. A top 7 rb will.

Like I said... Bet on it, then. Just tell the CMC owner you're not trading Mason regardless. Because you're living in crazy town if you think anyone is trading you a starter for a handcuff.

Someone else in here said they offered Hopkins for Mason. That's an overpay. Kirk is an overpay. But if those are guys you don't need on a team where you have CMC and don't have Mason, it's understandable.

But you guys are talking like you want a guy who taken in the first 3 rounds of draft or something.

I know it's exciting for a guy to pop-off but you gotta find your perspective.

Where guys got drafted at is completely irrelevant to now. Situations change very fast in the NFL.

Last year folks were screaming to sell Puka after two weeks for guys who were drafted way ahead of him in drafts, too. He went on to have the best rookie WR season we’ve ever seen.

You probably would’ve felt pretty dumb if you’d have traded him for a starter WR3 then.

Puka wasn't a career backup who slid into a start because of injury.

It's disingenuous to compare the two.

Mason is Cinderella approaching midnight and you don't know exactly when he turns into a pumpkin. Sure, it's fun to own a guy who pops off. But if you don't have a reasonable expectation for him to continue his workload, it's short-sighted to not attempt to improve your roster long-term.

And it absolutely does matter where guys were drafted after one week of the season.

Either you're willing to trade him or not. Don't ask for DJ Moore and pretend you're being realistic. Either say I'm not willing to trade or actually float some realistic offers. Mason could lose his value tomorrow, literally, if CMC were announced as the starter. Yes, we might not believe the 49ers now but the second that Week 2 game kicks off and CMC is in the game, Mason becomes a pumpkin and you lose any offers you may have gotten.

He played 2 years in the league, mostly behind the best RB in the league. Not your prototypical "career backup"

What's the argument? That he's not a backup? That he's too good to keep on the bench even when CMC is back? Because that is laughable.

 

[ATB]

We can say, "Well ok but what if it's different this time?" Why would it be? Everything is the same except the name on the back of the jersey of the backup.

Usage is the same for sure. What isn't the same is CMC's status. Based on all your comments you are 100% sure that once CMC plays he assumes his full time, completely healthy, bell cow role with no increased injury risk. At least that is how I take your "turning into a pumpkin" comments. I would agree if this was something like a broken finger or less risky injury situation.

CMC having calf/achilles issues is highly likely to be lingering issue that is easily aggravated playing his normal bell cow role. Because of that there is no "pumpkin" point for me. CMC will be at risk for aggravation for the rest of the season. That is the key reason that Mason's value isn't pumpkin like. So while his value will dip (and I think that only for non-CMC owners) once CMC is back in the game it doesn't go to zero. And if I am a CMC owner I am still trying to acquire Mason every week that I don't have him. Granted if CMC is playing Mason's value dips so I hope to get him at a discount from today but if I was the guy with Mason I wouldn't be dipping too much and it would still take someone better than Kirk. I would need to get an auto start guy for my lineup based on my roster. That isn't necessarily a WR2 type guy but someone that is significantly better than my bench guys.

I don't see how you're saying some of this as if it's fact. The only thing we know for certain is that Shanahan does not do RBBC. He simply doesn't. He's not putting a guy out there that can't handle a full load. Sure, maybe that means CMC is out the first 3 weeks of the year. Ok. But then? Do you think he's coming back on the field to get 15 carries and split the backfield? Do you think that's why they traded for him? Or why they paid him?

So yeah, Mason is absolutely heading toward midnight. He will turn into a pumpkin. His value will plummet.

If you think there's some reality in which Jordan Mason earns a split backfield with CM-****ing-C you are dreaming.

Shanahan certainly has his preferences and tendencies, but he also knows his number one asset has a balky Achilles. This isn’t the parable of the scorpion and the frog

CMC isn't touching the field until he's 100%. So the argument that Shanahan will be forced to be careful with him when he's back is a moot one. Maybe it's Week 3, maybe it's Week 7, who knows. All we know for sure, based on a mountain of evidence, is that Shanahan doesn't run a RBBC. You can posit that he might all of a sudden change that approach but then you're just daydreaming.

 

[JoeJoe88]

I have CMC in one league though

Color me shocked.