Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Sometimes, we tend to over react to things based on one game. But there are times when someone can start drawing conclusions quickly based on off season movement, pre season effort, and especially week 1 performance. These teams have had a long time to get focused and ready for their week 1 match up so keep that in mind as we go along. I will also do a brief recap on certain players that I feel need mention.
I also want folks to understand that there are times that no matter how great or bad the match up, the opposite will happen. I equate it to poker…will pocket Aces win all the time? No, and it’s the same with FF. We can look and read and analyze but in the end we are playing the percentages to some degree.
Just because a team did well in week 1 against the run, or poorly, doesn’t mean you just pencil in the numbers for your game the next week. Will Jax give up 200 yds rushing again this year? Maybe, but not very likely. Houston and Tennessee held their opponents to under 80 yds rushing…are they that good? Not when you look at their 4.2 and 4.4 yds a clip average, so the teams they faced may simply not have run the ball enough. Keep these things in mind when you are filling in your starting rosters.
Let’s jump to the action for week 2!
San Fran at St Louis:
The Rams gave up 186 yards on the ground and 4.9 ypc to the Panthers and the revamped OL they installed last weekend. WOW! I don’t know if Carolina is that good or if the Rams are just that bad. People have ranked St Louis near the bottom of the league for rush defense and they proved those folks right on Sunday. Coming out and losing 27-14 at home just does not lead to great expectations for 2007 for the Rams.
Frank Gore: No reason to not start him. He was good for 75 yds and a TD last week…I am sure owners out there are looking for bigger numbers from a top5 pick but this week on paper one could expect a surge. I think the Cardinals are a better overall team so don’t get too worked up about his rushing stats last week.
The Niners sure improved their pass defense by keeping the AZ WRs quiet most of the night on Monday/Tuesday…however they were run on pretty well. Important note to FF owners…Orlando Pace is OUT for the year! Now I have talked before about how the C/LG/RG can have a bigger impact on the running game and the passing game is impacted more with the loss of a LT/RT injury. But Pace will hurt SJax owners.
SJax: He had only 1 catch last week. 1 week does not make a season but I am on record in several of the SJax threads as saying he would not come close to 90 receptions this year…so far that prediction looks safe. I called for somewhere in the 50 range. If SJax does not deliver a little more this week, we could see an early season candidate for BUST. You bought him at #2 so insert him but Pace will have a big impact on all Rams’ positional players.
Buffalo at Pittsburgh:
The Steelers defense allowed just 46 yds rushing at 2.9 ypc…the Browns fell behind and it was over. The Bills meanwhile were able to get some rushing going against the Denver Broncos. I look for a little stiffer challenge from the Steelers this week as the Broncos were set not to allow Lee Evans to beat them…they almost let Lynch do the deed instead if not for a late FG.
Marshawn Lynch: Last week I said to hold off and let him ride your bench. I don’t expect big numbers from him this week. In fact I think most owners will wheel him out as they feel they missed out on last week and will simply be chasing points they can’t get back…so I probably let him ride the pine this week.
FWP: 107 yds last week but nothing thru the air as Big Ben seems like he will have no problem finding his crew of WR to throw to. I wouldn’t get too worked up about it as 160 yds and 4 TD for Big Ben…those stats seem a bit off so I would expect a healthy dose of FWP this week. Travis Henry found a lot of room to run on Buffalo who now take to the road after a bitter week 1 home opening defeat…they might be just a little deflated this week making them even softer to run at.
Buffalo gave up 5.3 ypc and 171 yds last week. FWP owners should see more points this week.
Green Bay at NY Giants: Brandon Jacobs is OUT for likely 3-5 weeks, could be more.
Green Bay gave up 3.6 ypc and 103 on the ground. Their rush defense looks pretty solid as long as Nick Barnett is free to roam around back there. I wouldn’t automatically assume that an opposing RB is a great start every week.
The NY Giants gave up 4.7 ypc and 142 on the gorund…but how could they worry about the run with Romo bombing them like a WW II German fighter pilot on Sunday Night. The Giants defense is awful right now, however the Packers offense is pretty mild. It took 2 special teams fumbles by the Eagles to hand them 10 points…take that away and their offense was pretty meh!
Brandon Jackson: Only 40 yds on 15 carries but 75 total yds and 4 catches made him a nice RB2 in PPR leagues last week. He is the starter and got all of the carries. Watch to see if Morency gets his health back but for the moment, it is the Brandon Jackson show in Green Bay.
Derrick Ward: Had almost 120 total yds and a TD on Sunday Night but he was playing a defense that had a big lead for most of the game…I am not sure I would be wheeling him out unless you own Jacobs and are forced to play this guy cause you plucked him up off the WW. In fact, for Jacobs’s owners, you better run and grab this guy for a few weeks. Droughns was not asked to carry the ball hardly at all and I don’t know that he will be asked to do a lot more this Sunday…maybe a handful of carries but Ward played well in relief.
Atlanta at Jacksonville:
Two teams that had better expectations by almost everyone in the Shark Pool…most know I felt Atlanta would quickly show that they are heading for an awful season without Vick. The Falcons gave up 5.1 ypc and 130+ on the ground, JAX was run over for 5.8 ypc and 282 yards on the ground…HOLY SNICKERDOODLES!!!
Warrick Dunn: He had about 80 yds and 4 receptions last week…proved somewhat valuable in PPR leagues. Norwood had a much better ypc avg but it seems Petrino is going to allow Dunn to get a bulk of the carries for now. Perhaps that will change but until then, owners with both on their rosters need to look at playing Dunn.
Jerious Norwood: People that drafted him in the 2nd-4th rounds of redrafts were high on something. Norwood is a bench till he shows he can get more of the carries. 57 yds on 7 touches including 2 receptions…seems like last year all over again.
MJD: 60 total yds, zero TD, 2 receptions…stinky stinky stinky. I cannot imagine a repeat performance this week but on the other hand if you had told me the Titans would tattoo the Jags for 282 yds on the ground…I’m just saying. Can’t go anywhere but up, right?
Fred Taylor: 6 carries for 16 yds and no receptions, no TD…this would appear to be a better match up but I also think that for where he was drafted in most leagues, that you should have better options. None of the RBBC duos last week produced great numbers really. Let him sit for a week.
Cincinnati at Cleveland:
Cinci gave up 4.3 ypc and 107 yds this past week. Since the Browns are having some passing issues, I would expect the Bengals to see a healthy dose of Jamal Lewis this week as he wasn’t productive last week in a Steelers blowout.
The Browns gave up almost 5 yds a carry and over 200 yds on the ground this past week.
Rudi Johnson: This will be a big game for Rudi this week. He had only 50 yds on the ground last week, we knew Baltimore was a bad match up no matter what he did in the past. I also like the 3 receptions for 26 yds…he doesn’t do that often but with Henry out, maybe they have found some life in Rudi out of the backfield.
Jamal Lewis: Will have a much better week against Cinci on Sunday. Assuming the Bengals are not blowing out the Browns by 20+ at half.
Houston at Carolina:
The Texans gave up 4.2 ypc last week but only 72 yds as Herm Edwards showed us how smart he is beyond his game clock management skills and only let LJ run it 10 times…way to go Hermie!
The Panthers gave up 76 yds on the ground but only 3.6 ypc. They look good early.
Ahman Green: 96 total yds and 4 catches…PERFECT! He was drafted as an RB2 in the 4th-5th rounds of a lot of drafts and he looked great on Sunday. The Chiefs were easy, the panthers will be a much stronger test for him. I still like the fact that he is a two way threat. You can’t expect a huge game form him but I don’t think he will hurt your team either on Sunday.
Ron Dayne: Had 13 carries on Sunday, one of the better back ups to stash on your roster.
DeShaun Foster: Had over 100 total yds against the Rams but he is splitting the carries with Williams right now. I know Houston looks a little tougher on rush defense but I think Carolina is much improved over last season at running the football. The passing game will open up the running game this week.
DeAngelo Williams: 75 yds last week. Probably should be on your bench for right now. He is not the starter and probably will not be one anytime soon. Looks like the Panthers are fine running both of them.
Indy at Tennessee:
Colts gave up 4.1 ypc and 106 on the ground. Their defense looked pretty solid overall but this is not a juggernaut on defense.
The Tee-tans gave up 4 yd a clip and 72 on the ground as JAX decided to stop running the football for some odd reason.
Joseph Addai: Plain and simple, enjoy the ride this year.
Kenton Keith: Addai owners, this is the back up so get him if he is available on your WW. Not sure he could handle the whole load but a board member reported he played up in the CFL in some big games and did pretty well up there.
Chris Brown: Had 175 yds last week in what was likely his career game rushing the ball. I can’t say I am optimistic this week but owners in a pickle might turn here for some points. Don’t chase last week’s stats however as they are done, you can’t retrieve them.
LenDale White: About 70 yds, 2 short receptions, 18 carries…I’m just not loving this guy right now but that is improvement over last season. Fisher is likely to ride the hot hand so it is going to be difficult to give any of these guys a stamp of approval week to week.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay:
The Saints were gashed for 5.7 ypc and over 160 yds on the ground last week with a rookie LT starting for the Colts.
The Bucs gave up 4.1 ypc and 139 on the ground as Seattle was determined to run right at them.
Reggie Bush: Here’s the thing. Week1 is done, he looked pretty average but I expect prode to kick in for the Saints offense this week. I’m not calling for a huge game but I wouldn’t start putting Reggie on your bench just yet.
Deuce McAllister: He has had some great games in the “Community Investment Tax” stadium in Tampa. We saw Shaun ramming at the Bucs, I would expect a lot of carries between him and Reggie on Sunday. I was reserved about him last week, this week I think he is a good play.
Cadillac: Questionable with ribs, look elsewhere as he will not make a good play. Looked good when he ran on Sunday, but now he is injured.
Update: Reports now are saying Cadillac will play but you still might think about letting him sit this out until we know he is 100%.
Pittman/Graham: I would expect more Pittman than Graham but just let them sit if you own them, unless Pittman is the definitive starter and Caddy is OUT for the game. The Saints were terrible on rush defense last week.
Looks like another long season for Buccaneer fans.
Dallas at Miami:
Dallas gave up an incredible 5.6 ypc and 124 yds last week.
Miami yielded 4.7 ypc and 191 yds on the ground…I didn’t realize it was that bad.
Julius Jones: 75 yds and no TD last week…I am just going to go ahead and say JJ should be on your bench. What’s the upside right now? Sure he gets 66 yds on 15 carries, looks good but Dallas is throwing the ball and Miami just lost their starting Safety Bell for the season. He’s OK, but when is the last time he had 150 yds and a TD?
MB III: “Busman” called this one last week. 90 yds and a TD, look how determined he was near the goal line…just play him for now till he stops what he did last season and into the start of this year. I expect a better Miami defense on Sunday…well maybe I don’t.
Ronnie Brown: I know Dallas was giving in the ypc last week but we have an awful situation between Brown and Chatman right now. If Chatman is injured as some reports indicate, we might get a better play out of Ronnie Brown this week. At the moment Brown seems very average and his surrounding parts are not helping.
Jesse Chatman: Walking around with a limp according to some reports.
The Miami Dolphins passed to Brown and Chatman a lot. They each had 6 receptions this past week.
Seattle at Arizona:
The Seadogs showed some backbone on defense allowing 3.9 ypc and only 90 yds against the Bucs. If that defense can hold its own, we might be looking at a team that can challenge for the NFC Title…the conference is wide open IMO.
The Cardinals showed improvement allowing 4.2 ypc and 92 yds on the ground. SF should have run the ball a little more but I am sure Seattle will not make the same mistake.
Shaun Alexander: 105 tough yds on the ground and a TD. Very workman like performance and he should do well this week too. Look for Seattle to lean on him as the passing game seems a bit in flux right now. Seattle has a chance to get off to a 2-0 start.
Edge: There were some injuries along the interior of the OL for the Cardinals this past week. 2 rookies will now take over the duties and that can’t be good news. However the #1DT for the Seahawks went down in the pre season, the Bucs OL may not have been the best test for them. If you have Edge as an RB3 somehow, maybe you play the better options but he looks better this year and should be able to churn out some points this weekend. He had 110 total yds, 2 receptions, and a TD this past week…19 points in PPR leagues.
Minnesota at Detroit: Got a feeling a lot of people are interested in this game.
The Vikes allowed 3.4 ypc and 96 yds to a run determined Atlanta team, great job.
Detroit allowed 4 yds a clip and 92 yds rushing to Oakland. Detroit is actually OK at stopping the run as long as Rodgers is playing along the line.
Adrian Peterson: 160+ yds and a TD in his 1st game. The guy was electric. How can Childress act like he won’t utilize him. In fact he isn’t really saying that. ADP should get 15-20 carries whether he starts or not. Don’t look at his 1st half stats but check in when he is most valuable…as the defense wears down. LaMont Jordan put up 2 TD on Detroit last week, I expect ADP to do well again this week. I was fairly confident he would do well against Atlanta but the injury to Taylor really accelerated that whole process.
Chester Taylor: Let him ride the pine until he is 100% and Childress announces him as the starter…even then I might not start him.
Mewelde Moore: I only bring the guy up because if Taylor is a no go, we might see some of M&M and we all have seen what he can do out of the backfield. Might be a nice sneaky WW pick up in deeper leagues.
Tatum Bell: Owners got lucky last week but I would rather be lucky than good as the saying goes. This is a terrible match up for him. He might be able to catch a few balls but he is not going to be running all over the Vikes stout rush defense. The Vikes know they have to stop the pass but they are not going to allow the Lions to do both so plan on them shutting the run down and trying to pin their ears back to apply some pressure.
TJ Duckett: OUT with injury
Kevin Jones: Still basically OUT
Oakland at Denver:
Oakland only gave up 108 yds last week but they ranked near the bottom with 5.1 ypc. Perhaps trying to cover Roy, CJ, Shaun, and Furrey ahd something to do with it.
Denver allowed a poor OL in Buffalo and a rookie RB in Lynch to rush for 112 yds and 4.3 ypc. They have some leks to plug on their rush defense.
LaMont Jordan: Was a nice steal in the middle rounds of a lot of redrafts. Lynch found room to roam last week. Denver has awesome DBs and I am sure the Raiders will try and run Jordan as much as they can get away with. I said start Jordan last week, I see no reason to not get him out there, especially in leagues where you can start 3 RB and or flex him. Was awful nice to see him getting receptions again.
Dominic Rhodes: Out on suspension, but his value is going to plummet if Jordan can continue to have success.
Travis Henry: Over 180 total yds and 3 receptions last week, guy looks great in a Denver Broncos uni. Should do well this week but I also caution owners to temper enthusiasm. After getting roasted by Detroit last week, the Denver passing game will b much easier for Oakland to defend and they can probably commit 7 to the box this week. They were lucky to have 5 or 6 in the box against Detroit last week.
Cecil Sapp/Selvin Young: The back ups in Denver are always hot WW pick ups. They combined for 5 carries and 14 yds. They are really just out there to give Henry a slight breather…looks like Henry is going to get 80% of the carries for now.
New York Jets at Baltimore:
The Jets allowed over 130 yds on the ground last week but only 3.6 ypc. Interesting.
The Ravens allowed 2.4 ypc and 55 yds on the ground…downright awesome.
Thomas Jones: Horrible start this week. The Ravens are mad that they lost on Monday Night and I look for them to come out with the intention of shutting down the run. Kelly Clemens will be making his 1st start, this game will be ugly.
Jones was drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round of a lot of redrafts. Owners are really regretting it as he started off slow last week and he has another rough match up this week. Plus he doesn’t get the passes out of the backfield as those go to Leon Washington. Sharks will see Jones as a buy low option though after the game this week. However I would temper enthusiasm for Jones as we may have a QB controversy brewing and that is never good.
Leon Washington: 45 yds and 3 receptions last week. Mostly a bye week filler type o guy at this point.
Willis McGahee: 110 yds and 3 receptions against Cinci last week. Was pretty good but Baltimore fell behind and I think this is actually going to be one of the lower production type games for McGahee. He might not run for more than 4 yds a clip ever but he should get 20-25 carries to do it and he was active out of the backfield with 3 catches for 34 yds…suddenly he might be dual threat. Ogden is injured but he is the LT, has a bigger impact I feel on the passing game of the Ravens than the running game. They are going to grind out a win at home against the Jets.
Musa Smith: 39 total yds and a score…not something you should really rely on. Smith ripped a 17 yarder from about the 42 on that drive, next was Demetrius Williams for 19, maybe they felt they had Cinci on their heels and kept the personnel in there and Smith ran it in 6 yds for the score. I am just presenting another way to look at it.
Kansas City at Chicago:
KC only allowed 3.5 ypc last week. 109 yds as well.
The Bears allowed 2.1 ypc and 77 yds, their offense let them down. They also lost brown for the season again. 4 years in a row. And yes that will have an impact on their defense but Archuletta is still back there. As long as Tommie Harris is in there and Urlacher and Briggs are free to clean up…they will be fine.
Larry Johnson: I have some real bad news for owners. And I own LJ in a couple of leagues, and I lost in those leagues. I know it is said to always start your studs…I’m not so sure LJ is a stud right now. Oh he has had great success but folks, you have to start getting creative with your line up when he is in it. The offense for KC is terrible. Eddie Kennison, their best WR is out for a couple of games. The one saving grace for LJ owners in PPR leagues is that he had 87 yds but 7 receptions last week…over 15 points in a lot of those leagues. I always felt he was a better dual threat than many believe. So I guess you keep plugging him in there but in non PPR leagues I would be interested to see what other RB options you might have.
Cedric Benson: 19 carries for 42 yds…YUCK! He should do better this week, but if he doesn’t I would expect for the next guy I talk about to start getting a bigger load.
Adrian Peterson: I mentioned for you to grab this guy on the WW in most of your leagues. 7 carries for 38 yds, I see him getting more looks as Benson struggles.
San Diego at New England: Game of the year!
The Bolts were tough last week. 3.1 ypc and 80 yds on the ground
The Pats gave up only 60 on the ground and 3.2 ypc.
I want to issue an apology to San Diego fans. It was a real treat to watch the Bolts battle last week and even as LT started slow, they stuck with the plan and they look ready. If they can pull off an a surprise win on the road, they will have beaten 2 very quality opponents and I would say they are SB contenders for sure. There is just nothing like watching Merriman run all over the field. LT to Gates is a piece of artwork really. I ripped the Bolts early, still think the loss of Marty and Wade hurts them, but you have to give them their props…PROPS!
LT: Even when he was shut down…and he was shut down by the Bears…he still managed to eek out 25+ points in most leagues. A passing TD, rush TD, only 25 yds on 17 carries, but he had 50 yds on 7 receptions to boot. Still in his prime.
Laurence Maroney: Owners pay attention. Maroney had 20 carries but only 72 yds. He is the starter but we might see a much more balanced attack between him and the next guy. I am not an optimist for him this weekend. I would bench him, seriously.
Sammy Morris: Quietly had 11 carries for 54 yds and 2 catches for another 11. I know it was a blowout and the Jets but how often is NE going to get spanked? Morris is on pace for 1,000 total yds. I am trying to implore you to get this guy if he is available on the WW…he might be very useful at some point this season…and Maroney ahsn’t exactly been a clean bill of health since arriving in the NFL.
Washington at Philly:
Skins gave up 3.3 ypc and 66 yds on the ground. Miami is not the best OL but when you consider how awful they were last year against the run.
Philly allowed only 2.7 ypc and 46 yds on the ground against the Pack. I am betting we see a low score this week. Both team were involved in 16-13 affairs week 1.
Clinton Portis: Will be a tough match up this week but he looked great against Miami and he only needs a seam and he could be gone so I would keep him in your line up…if he is somehow your RB3, maybe you let him slide over to the bench but Portis can explode.
Ladell Betts: Looked good as well last week. I would let him sit the bench for now as Portis is firmly the starter.
On 2nd look both Portis and Betts got 17 carries a piece. Betts had a catch so he actually touched it more but it really seemed like Portis is the starter when I watched the game. We are probably looking at about a 50/50 split, perhaps 60/40 at best for Portis at the moment.
Brian Westbrook: 130 total yds and 6 recptions last week for about 19 points in most PPR leagues. He is what Reggie Bush owners are wishing for. You start him every week no matter what the defense is because he can make it happen via the air just as easy as on the ground. Did have 20 carries last week, Eagles lost…I expect Reid to throw a little more this week. Westbrook will have about 15 carries max.
What say you?
I also want folks to understand that there are times that no matter how great or bad the match up, the opposite will happen. I equate it to poker…will pocket Aces win all the time? No, and it’s the same with FF. We can look and read and analyze but in the end we are playing the percentages to some degree.
Just because a team did well in week 1 against the run, or poorly, doesn’t mean you just pencil in the numbers for your game the next week. Will Jax give up 200 yds rushing again this year? Maybe, but not very likely. Houston and Tennessee held their opponents to under 80 yds rushing…are they that good? Not when you look at their 4.2 and 4.4 yds a clip average, so the teams they faced may simply not have run the ball enough. Keep these things in mind when you are filling in your starting rosters.
Let’s jump to the action for week 2!
San Fran at St Louis:
The Rams gave up 186 yards on the ground and 4.9 ypc to the Panthers and the revamped OL they installed last weekend. WOW! I don’t know if Carolina is that good or if the Rams are just that bad. People have ranked St Louis near the bottom of the league for rush defense and they proved those folks right on Sunday. Coming out and losing 27-14 at home just does not lead to great expectations for 2007 for the Rams.
Frank Gore: No reason to not start him. He was good for 75 yds and a TD last week…I am sure owners out there are looking for bigger numbers from a top5 pick but this week on paper one could expect a surge. I think the Cardinals are a better overall team so don’t get too worked up about his rushing stats last week.
The Niners sure improved their pass defense by keeping the AZ WRs quiet most of the night on Monday/Tuesday…however they were run on pretty well. Important note to FF owners…Orlando Pace is OUT for the year! Now I have talked before about how the C/LG/RG can have a bigger impact on the running game and the passing game is impacted more with the loss of a LT/RT injury. But Pace will hurt SJax owners.
SJax: He had only 1 catch last week. 1 week does not make a season but I am on record in several of the SJax threads as saying he would not come close to 90 receptions this year…so far that prediction looks safe. I called for somewhere in the 50 range. If SJax does not deliver a little more this week, we could see an early season candidate for BUST. You bought him at #2 so insert him but Pace will have a big impact on all Rams’ positional players.
Buffalo at Pittsburgh:
The Steelers defense allowed just 46 yds rushing at 2.9 ypc…the Browns fell behind and it was over. The Bills meanwhile were able to get some rushing going against the Denver Broncos. I look for a little stiffer challenge from the Steelers this week as the Broncos were set not to allow Lee Evans to beat them…they almost let Lynch do the deed instead if not for a late FG.
Marshawn Lynch: Last week I said to hold off and let him ride your bench. I don’t expect big numbers from him this week. In fact I think most owners will wheel him out as they feel they missed out on last week and will simply be chasing points they can’t get back…so I probably let him ride the pine this week.
FWP: 107 yds last week but nothing thru the air as Big Ben seems like he will have no problem finding his crew of WR to throw to. I wouldn’t get too worked up about it as 160 yds and 4 TD for Big Ben…those stats seem a bit off so I would expect a healthy dose of FWP this week. Travis Henry found a lot of room to run on Buffalo who now take to the road after a bitter week 1 home opening defeat…they might be just a little deflated this week making them even softer to run at.
Buffalo gave up 5.3 ypc and 171 yds last week. FWP owners should see more points this week.
Green Bay at NY Giants: Brandon Jacobs is OUT for likely 3-5 weeks, could be more.
Green Bay gave up 3.6 ypc and 103 on the ground. Their rush defense looks pretty solid as long as Nick Barnett is free to roam around back there. I wouldn’t automatically assume that an opposing RB is a great start every week.
The NY Giants gave up 4.7 ypc and 142 on the gorund…but how could they worry about the run with Romo bombing them like a WW II German fighter pilot on Sunday Night. The Giants defense is awful right now, however the Packers offense is pretty mild. It took 2 special teams fumbles by the Eagles to hand them 10 points…take that away and their offense was pretty meh!
Brandon Jackson: Only 40 yds on 15 carries but 75 total yds and 4 catches made him a nice RB2 in PPR leagues last week. He is the starter and got all of the carries. Watch to see if Morency gets his health back but for the moment, it is the Brandon Jackson show in Green Bay.
Derrick Ward: Had almost 120 total yds and a TD on Sunday Night but he was playing a defense that had a big lead for most of the game…I am not sure I would be wheeling him out unless you own Jacobs and are forced to play this guy cause you plucked him up off the WW. In fact, for Jacobs’s owners, you better run and grab this guy for a few weeks. Droughns was not asked to carry the ball hardly at all and I don’t know that he will be asked to do a lot more this Sunday…maybe a handful of carries but Ward played well in relief.
Atlanta at Jacksonville:
Two teams that had better expectations by almost everyone in the Shark Pool…most know I felt Atlanta would quickly show that they are heading for an awful season without Vick. The Falcons gave up 5.1 ypc and 130+ on the ground, JAX was run over for 5.8 ypc and 282 yards on the ground…HOLY SNICKERDOODLES!!!
Warrick Dunn: He had about 80 yds and 4 receptions last week…proved somewhat valuable in PPR leagues. Norwood had a much better ypc avg but it seems Petrino is going to allow Dunn to get a bulk of the carries for now. Perhaps that will change but until then, owners with both on their rosters need to look at playing Dunn.
Jerious Norwood: People that drafted him in the 2nd-4th rounds of redrafts were high on something. Norwood is a bench till he shows he can get more of the carries. 57 yds on 7 touches including 2 receptions…seems like last year all over again.
MJD: 60 total yds, zero TD, 2 receptions…stinky stinky stinky. I cannot imagine a repeat performance this week but on the other hand if you had told me the Titans would tattoo the Jags for 282 yds on the ground…I’m just saying. Can’t go anywhere but up, right?
Fred Taylor: 6 carries for 16 yds and no receptions, no TD…this would appear to be a better match up but I also think that for where he was drafted in most leagues, that you should have better options. None of the RBBC duos last week produced great numbers really. Let him sit for a week.
Cincinnati at Cleveland:
Cinci gave up 4.3 ypc and 107 yds this past week. Since the Browns are having some passing issues, I would expect the Bengals to see a healthy dose of Jamal Lewis this week as he wasn’t productive last week in a Steelers blowout.
The Browns gave up almost 5 yds a carry and over 200 yds on the ground this past week.
Rudi Johnson: This will be a big game for Rudi this week. He had only 50 yds on the ground last week, we knew Baltimore was a bad match up no matter what he did in the past. I also like the 3 receptions for 26 yds…he doesn’t do that often but with Henry out, maybe they have found some life in Rudi out of the backfield.
Jamal Lewis: Will have a much better week against Cinci on Sunday. Assuming the Bengals are not blowing out the Browns by 20+ at half.
Houston at Carolina:
The Texans gave up 4.2 ypc last week but only 72 yds as Herm Edwards showed us how smart he is beyond his game clock management skills and only let LJ run it 10 times…way to go Hermie!
The Panthers gave up 76 yds on the ground but only 3.6 ypc. They look good early.
Ahman Green: 96 total yds and 4 catches…PERFECT! He was drafted as an RB2 in the 4th-5th rounds of a lot of drafts and he looked great on Sunday. The Chiefs were easy, the panthers will be a much stronger test for him. I still like the fact that he is a two way threat. You can’t expect a huge game form him but I don’t think he will hurt your team either on Sunday.
Ron Dayne: Had 13 carries on Sunday, one of the better back ups to stash on your roster.
DeShaun Foster: Had over 100 total yds against the Rams but he is splitting the carries with Williams right now. I know Houston looks a little tougher on rush defense but I think Carolina is much improved over last season at running the football. The passing game will open up the running game this week.
DeAngelo Williams: 75 yds last week. Probably should be on your bench for right now. He is not the starter and probably will not be one anytime soon. Looks like the Panthers are fine running both of them.
Indy at Tennessee:
Colts gave up 4.1 ypc and 106 on the ground. Their defense looked pretty solid overall but this is not a juggernaut on defense.
The Tee-tans gave up 4 yd a clip and 72 on the ground as JAX decided to stop running the football for some odd reason.
Joseph Addai: Plain and simple, enjoy the ride this year.
Kenton Keith: Addai owners, this is the back up so get him if he is available on your WW. Not sure he could handle the whole load but a board member reported he played up in the CFL in some big games and did pretty well up there.
Chris Brown: Had 175 yds last week in what was likely his career game rushing the ball. I can’t say I am optimistic this week but owners in a pickle might turn here for some points. Don’t chase last week’s stats however as they are done, you can’t retrieve them.
LenDale White: About 70 yds, 2 short receptions, 18 carries…I’m just not loving this guy right now but that is improvement over last season. Fisher is likely to ride the hot hand so it is going to be difficult to give any of these guys a stamp of approval week to week.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay:
The Saints were gashed for 5.7 ypc and over 160 yds on the ground last week with a rookie LT starting for the Colts.
The Bucs gave up 4.1 ypc and 139 on the ground as Seattle was determined to run right at them.
Reggie Bush: Here’s the thing. Week1 is done, he looked pretty average but I expect prode to kick in for the Saints offense this week. I’m not calling for a huge game but I wouldn’t start putting Reggie on your bench just yet.
Deuce McAllister: He has had some great games in the “Community Investment Tax” stadium in Tampa. We saw Shaun ramming at the Bucs, I would expect a lot of carries between him and Reggie on Sunday. I was reserved about him last week, this week I think he is a good play.
Cadillac: Questionable with ribs, look elsewhere as he will not make a good play. Looked good when he ran on Sunday, but now he is injured.
Update: Reports now are saying Cadillac will play but you still might think about letting him sit this out until we know he is 100%.
Pittman/Graham: I would expect more Pittman than Graham but just let them sit if you own them, unless Pittman is the definitive starter and Caddy is OUT for the game. The Saints were terrible on rush defense last week.
Looks like another long season for Buccaneer fans.
Dallas at Miami:
Dallas gave up an incredible 5.6 ypc and 124 yds last week.
Miami yielded 4.7 ypc and 191 yds on the ground…I didn’t realize it was that bad.
Julius Jones: 75 yds and no TD last week…I am just going to go ahead and say JJ should be on your bench. What’s the upside right now? Sure he gets 66 yds on 15 carries, looks good but Dallas is throwing the ball and Miami just lost their starting Safety Bell for the season. He’s OK, but when is the last time he had 150 yds and a TD?
MB III: “Busman” called this one last week. 90 yds and a TD, look how determined he was near the goal line…just play him for now till he stops what he did last season and into the start of this year. I expect a better Miami defense on Sunday…well maybe I don’t.
Ronnie Brown: I know Dallas was giving in the ypc last week but we have an awful situation between Brown and Chatman right now. If Chatman is injured as some reports indicate, we might get a better play out of Ronnie Brown this week. At the moment Brown seems very average and his surrounding parts are not helping.
Jesse Chatman: Walking around with a limp according to some reports.
The Miami Dolphins passed to Brown and Chatman a lot. They each had 6 receptions this past week.
Seattle at Arizona:
The Seadogs showed some backbone on defense allowing 3.9 ypc and only 90 yds against the Bucs. If that defense can hold its own, we might be looking at a team that can challenge for the NFC Title…the conference is wide open IMO.
The Cardinals showed improvement allowing 4.2 ypc and 92 yds on the ground. SF should have run the ball a little more but I am sure Seattle will not make the same mistake.
Shaun Alexander: 105 tough yds on the ground and a TD. Very workman like performance and he should do well this week too. Look for Seattle to lean on him as the passing game seems a bit in flux right now. Seattle has a chance to get off to a 2-0 start.
Edge: There were some injuries along the interior of the OL for the Cardinals this past week. 2 rookies will now take over the duties and that can’t be good news. However the #1DT for the Seahawks went down in the pre season, the Bucs OL may not have been the best test for them. If you have Edge as an RB3 somehow, maybe you play the better options but he looks better this year and should be able to churn out some points this weekend. He had 110 total yds, 2 receptions, and a TD this past week…19 points in PPR leagues.
Minnesota at Detroit: Got a feeling a lot of people are interested in this game.
The Vikes allowed 3.4 ypc and 96 yds to a run determined Atlanta team, great job.
Detroit allowed 4 yds a clip and 92 yds rushing to Oakland. Detroit is actually OK at stopping the run as long as Rodgers is playing along the line.
Adrian Peterson: 160+ yds and a TD in his 1st game. The guy was electric. How can Childress act like he won’t utilize him. In fact he isn’t really saying that. ADP should get 15-20 carries whether he starts or not. Don’t look at his 1st half stats but check in when he is most valuable…as the defense wears down. LaMont Jordan put up 2 TD on Detroit last week, I expect ADP to do well again this week. I was fairly confident he would do well against Atlanta but the injury to Taylor really accelerated that whole process.
Chester Taylor: Let him ride the pine until he is 100% and Childress announces him as the starter…even then I might not start him.
Mewelde Moore: I only bring the guy up because if Taylor is a no go, we might see some of M&M and we all have seen what he can do out of the backfield. Might be a nice sneaky WW pick up in deeper leagues.
Tatum Bell: Owners got lucky last week but I would rather be lucky than good as the saying goes. This is a terrible match up for him. He might be able to catch a few balls but he is not going to be running all over the Vikes stout rush defense. The Vikes know they have to stop the pass but they are not going to allow the Lions to do both so plan on them shutting the run down and trying to pin their ears back to apply some pressure.
TJ Duckett: OUT with injury
Kevin Jones: Still basically OUT
Oakland at Denver:
Oakland only gave up 108 yds last week but they ranked near the bottom with 5.1 ypc. Perhaps trying to cover Roy, CJ, Shaun, and Furrey ahd something to do with it.
Denver allowed a poor OL in Buffalo and a rookie RB in Lynch to rush for 112 yds and 4.3 ypc. They have some leks to plug on their rush defense.
LaMont Jordan: Was a nice steal in the middle rounds of a lot of redrafts. Lynch found room to roam last week. Denver has awesome DBs and I am sure the Raiders will try and run Jordan as much as they can get away with. I said start Jordan last week, I see no reason to not get him out there, especially in leagues where you can start 3 RB and or flex him. Was awful nice to see him getting receptions again.
Dominic Rhodes: Out on suspension, but his value is going to plummet if Jordan can continue to have success.
Travis Henry: Over 180 total yds and 3 receptions last week, guy looks great in a Denver Broncos uni. Should do well this week but I also caution owners to temper enthusiasm. After getting roasted by Detroit last week, the Denver passing game will b much easier for Oakland to defend and they can probably commit 7 to the box this week. They were lucky to have 5 or 6 in the box against Detroit last week.
Cecil Sapp/Selvin Young: The back ups in Denver are always hot WW pick ups. They combined for 5 carries and 14 yds. They are really just out there to give Henry a slight breather…looks like Henry is going to get 80% of the carries for now.
New York Jets at Baltimore:
The Jets allowed over 130 yds on the ground last week but only 3.6 ypc. Interesting.
The Ravens allowed 2.4 ypc and 55 yds on the ground…downright awesome.
Thomas Jones: Horrible start this week. The Ravens are mad that they lost on Monday Night and I look for them to come out with the intention of shutting down the run. Kelly Clemens will be making his 1st start, this game will be ugly.
Jones was drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round of a lot of redrafts. Owners are really regretting it as he started off slow last week and he has another rough match up this week. Plus he doesn’t get the passes out of the backfield as those go to Leon Washington. Sharks will see Jones as a buy low option though after the game this week. However I would temper enthusiasm for Jones as we may have a QB controversy brewing and that is never good.
Leon Washington: 45 yds and 3 receptions last week. Mostly a bye week filler type o guy at this point.
Willis McGahee: 110 yds and 3 receptions against Cinci last week. Was pretty good but Baltimore fell behind and I think this is actually going to be one of the lower production type games for McGahee. He might not run for more than 4 yds a clip ever but he should get 20-25 carries to do it and he was active out of the backfield with 3 catches for 34 yds…suddenly he might be dual threat. Ogden is injured but he is the LT, has a bigger impact I feel on the passing game of the Ravens than the running game. They are going to grind out a win at home against the Jets.
Musa Smith: 39 total yds and a score…not something you should really rely on. Smith ripped a 17 yarder from about the 42 on that drive, next was Demetrius Williams for 19, maybe they felt they had Cinci on their heels and kept the personnel in there and Smith ran it in 6 yds for the score. I am just presenting another way to look at it.
Kansas City at Chicago:
KC only allowed 3.5 ypc last week. 109 yds as well.
The Bears allowed 2.1 ypc and 77 yds, their offense let them down. They also lost brown for the season again. 4 years in a row. And yes that will have an impact on their defense but Archuletta is still back there. As long as Tommie Harris is in there and Urlacher and Briggs are free to clean up…they will be fine.
Larry Johnson: I have some real bad news for owners. And I own LJ in a couple of leagues, and I lost in those leagues. I know it is said to always start your studs…I’m not so sure LJ is a stud right now. Oh he has had great success but folks, you have to start getting creative with your line up when he is in it. The offense for KC is terrible. Eddie Kennison, their best WR is out for a couple of games. The one saving grace for LJ owners in PPR leagues is that he had 87 yds but 7 receptions last week…over 15 points in a lot of those leagues. I always felt he was a better dual threat than many believe. So I guess you keep plugging him in there but in non PPR leagues I would be interested to see what other RB options you might have.
Cedric Benson: 19 carries for 42 yds…YUCK! He should do better this week, but if he doesn’t I would expect for the next guy I talk about to start getting a bigger load.
Adrian Peterson: I mentioned for you to grab this guy on the WW in most of your leagues. 7 carries for 38 yds, I see him getting more looks as Benson struggles.
San Diego at New England: Game of the year!
The Bolts were tough last week. 3.1 ypc and 80 yds on the ground
The Pats gave up only 60 on the ground and 3.2 ypc.
I want to issue an apology to San Diego fans. It was a real treat to watch the Bolts battle last week and even as LT started slow, they stuck with the plan and they look ready. If they can pull off an a surprise win on the road, they will have beaten 2 very quality opponents and I would say they are SB contenders for sure. There is just nothing like watching Merriman run all over the field. LT to Gates is a piece of artwork really. I ripped the Bolts early, still think the loss of Marty and Wade hurts them, but you have to give them their props…PROPS!
LT: Even when he was shut down…and he was shut down by the Bears…he still managed to eek out 25+ points in most leagues. A passing TD, rush TD, only 25 yds on 17 carries, but he had 50 yds on 7 receptions to boot. Still in his prime.
Laurence Maroney: Owners pay attention. Maroney had 20 carries but only 72 yds. He is the starter but we might see a much more balanced attack between him and the next guy. I am not an optimist for him this weekend. I would bench him, seriously.
Sammy Morris: Quietly had 11 carries for 54 yds and 2 catches for another 11. I know it was a blowout and the Jets but how often is NE going to get spanked? Morris is on pace for 1,000 total yds. I am trying to implore you to get this guy if he is available on the WW…he might be very useful at some point this season…and Maroney ahsn’t exactly been a clean bill of health since arriving in the NFL.
Washington at Philly:
Skins gave up 3.3 ypc and 66 yds on the ground. Miami is not the best OL but when you consider how awful they were last year against the run.
Philly allowed only 2.7 ypc and 46 yds on the ground against the Pack. I am betting we see a low score this week. Both team were involved in 16-13 affairs week 1.
Clinton Portis: Will be a tough match up this week but he looked great against Miami and he only needs a seam and he could be gone so I would keep him in your line up…if he is somehow your RB3, maybe you let him slide over to the bench but Portis can explode.
Ladell Betts: Looked good as well last week. I would let him sit the bench for now as Portis is firmly the starter.
On 2nd look both Portis and Betts got 17 carries a piece. Betts had a catch so he actually touched it more but it really seemed like Portis is the starter when I watched the game. We are probably looking at about a 50/50 split, perhaps 60/40 at best for Portis at the moment.
Brian Westbrook: 130 total yds and 6 recptions last week for about 19 points in most PPR leagues. He is what Reggie Bush owners are wishing for. You start him every week no matter what the defense is because he can make it happen via the air just as easy as on the ground. Did have 20 carries last week, Eagles lost…I expect Reid to throw a little more this week. Westbrook will have about 15 carries max.
What say you?
I also have D. Ward but don't think I'm ready to play him. I'll probably just stick with Deuce. You can't guess them all right, but he seems like the safest play.
My only gripe is a very minor one. Ron Dayne got 9 of his 13 carries in the 4th qtr with Houston leading 20-3. They were trying to save the wear and tear on Green IMO. When the Texans are in closer games, I would expect to see more Green carries and less Dayne carries. I would hardley call Dayne one of the better backups to stash. like I said, very minor gripe. I like your insight as always.
My only gripe is a very minor one. Ron Dayne got 9 of his 13 carries in the 4th qtr with Houston leading 20-3. They were trying to save the wear and tear on Green IMO. When the Texans are in closer games, I would expect to see more Green carries and less Dayne carries. I would hardley call Dayne one of the better backups to stash. like I said, very minor gripe. I like your insight as always.
Thanks for the kind words Kid...problem is this would be a completely different thread or article over at FBG. 1st off, they have Wimer who posts the match ups, and an army of folks that give you cheatsheets, weather, SOS, what their dog ate for breakfast...and this thread thrives from the feedback from all of you. I am sure Wimer and crew would love to get some feedback on the board with what they write...but they can't just post it here as it is paid material.I would be honored if FBG approached me but I did work very briefly on the news blogger about 4-5 years ago, I have had some material published as a guest article in year's past, but I'm not sure where exactly I would fit in over there with all the staff they have in place already.
