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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (5 Viewers)

Just curious if the Zeke holdout saga will have any affect on Gordon and his ordeal.  Zeke has been the better RB, I think even Gordon would admit to that.  Zeke is getting paid less than Gordon this year ($5.6m vs $3.8m) - though Zeke has had more career earnings to date.  If Zeke ends up playing for $3.8m, why shouldn't Gordon do it for nearly $2m more?  Gordon also has one less year left on his deal to get to FA than Zeke - so he's that much close to a lucrative 2nd deal. 
You're comparing apples and oranges. Elliott is entering the 4th year of his contract. Gordon is entering the 5th year of his contract. In his 4th year, Gordon made $1.9M, but when teams exercise the 5th year option for players drafted in the first round, they get a sizable raise for that 5th year. Elliott's salary is set to jump to $9.1M in his 5th year next year.

 
They have to pay him if they have any brains. How many years does Rivers have left? This is win-now time, and the window is closing. You really want to go into the season with Ekelar as  your starter? Gordon is under-appreciated, and deserves a new contract. 
Disagree completely. And I really don't think Gordon is prepared to have a lengthy holdout and forego the associated money. 

 
You're comparing apples and oranges. Elliott is entering the 4th year of his contract. Gordon is entering the 5th year of his contract. In his 4th year, Gordon made $1.9M, but when teams exercise the 5th year option for players drafted in the first round, they get a sizable raise for that 5th year. Elliott's salary is set to jump to $9.1M in his 5th year next year.
I'm comparing two RBs in the current season.  Yes, Elliott has a 5th year at this point guaranteed for injury only.  I'm just asking if Zeke deciding to play this year for $3.8m would affect Gordon's choice of whether he should play for $5.6.  If nothing changes, and both go into next year - Zeke is doing it with $9.1M guaranteed, and Gordon for whatever he can get on the open market (or perhaps a $12m tag). 

 
I'm comparing two RBs in the current season.  Yes, Elliott has a 5th year at this point guaranteed for injury only.  I'm just asking if Zeke deciding to play this year for $3.8m would affect Gordon's choice of whether he should play for $5.6.  If nothing changes, and both go into next year - Zeke is doing it with $9.1M guaranteed, and Gordon for whatever he can get on the open market (or perhaps a $12m tag). 
Clearly, Gordon knows what the elite RBs are making, and he has stated his position that he deserves to get paid much more than he is being paid. So obviously Elliott's contract doesn't influence his thinking, and I'm sure it is because he understands that Elliott's contract is dictated.

As for Gordon next year, no chance the Chargers will tag him. They can't afford it, especially not given the history of his knee. Plus, they will be in position to just draft another RB next year and start another RB on a relatively inexpensive rookie contract.

 
Clearly, Gordon knows what the elite RBs are making, and he has stated his position that he deserves to get paid much more than he is being paid. So obviously Elliott's contract doesn't influence his thinking, and I'm sure it is because he understands that Elliott's contract is dictated.

As for Gordon next year, no chance the Chargers will tag him. They can't afford it, especially not given the history of his knee. Plus, they will be in position to just draft another RB next year and start another RB on a relatively inexpensive rookie contract.
Do you see any way of him being a Charger next year?  Do they want to bring him back more than another team would pay him.

 
Do you see any way of him being a Charger next year?  Do they want to bring him back more than another team would pay him.
I could see them paying him $5M to $8M, though I wouldn't want them to do that. He has made it clear he is looking for $13M+. The only way I could see him back is if there is literally no market for him, and he is forced to accept the Chargers price.

 
Yahoo's Charles Robinson reports the Chargers are "dug in" with their stance on Melvin Gordon's holdout.

Gordon threatened to hold out (and demand a trade) beyond Week 1 if his contract demands aren't met, and it sounds as if that proclamation will truly be put to the test. According to Robinson, an extension "isn't coming soon" as the team is "dug in" on their current stance. The 26-year-old two-time Pro Bowler is currently set to make $5.6 million in the fifth and final year of his rookie contract. If both sides stay hard-nosed in their beliefs, both Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson would benefit as RB2/FLEX options.

SOURCE: Charles Robinson on Twitter

Jul 22, 2019, 3:51 PM ET
 
Melvin Gordon was absent for the start of training camp Wednesday.

He's officially a holdout. The former No. 15 overall pick is scheduled to make $5.6 million on the team option this year and is now subject to daily fines for skipping practice. The Chargers are reportedly interested in an extension, but the sides haven't been close in talks. For now, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Chargers will move forward with the backs in camp, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. We'll see who blinks first in this stare-down. Gordon is obviously a very risky fantasy pick at the moment.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Jul 24, 2019, 9:36 AM ET

 
Before Le'Veon last year this wouldn't move the needle much in FF, but I bet Ekeler and Jackson's ADPs skyrockets until this is resolved.

 
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According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, "there is mounting pessimism" holdout Melvin Gordon will be reporting to the Chargers "anytime soon."

The Bolts and Gordon's agent have exchanged proposals in recent days, but talks remain "far apart" and Gordon's holdout is expected to be "prolonged" and spill into the regular season. Gordon appears dug in, and the Chargers just don't seem too interested in handing Gordon an extension in the $13 million annually range, which has been the going point for running backs lately. Austin Ekeler took the first reps with the starters at camp on Thursday. He's the clear back to own for L.A. right now. Justin Jackson is also in the mix. Both need to be owned in all formats where drafts have been completed.

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Jul 26, 2019, 9:00 AM ET

 
Doesnt seem to make any sense for the chargers to ante up and pay.  He is a good player.  He is also about to realize he doesnt hold as much leverage as he thinks he does given what he makes this year and what they could tag him for next year.  After two more years there is no way they will want him around for big money, so why give him all sorts of big guarantees now?

I dont see a new deal coming unless it's way way below what Gordon wants.

So Gordon owners get ready for a very rocky start to the season for your RB.

 
His value seems to be way down right now if anyone is a believer in a deal eventually getting done.

One dynasty I'm in I was offered Gordon/2nd for my Josh Jacobs.  In another someone announced they were trying to move him and wanted "late 2nd round startup value" in return.

 
Doesnt seem to make any sense for the chargers to ante up and pay.  He is a good player.  He is also about to realize he doesnt hold as much leverage as he thinks he does given what he makes this year and what they could tag him for next year.  After two more years there is no way they will want him around for big money, so why give him all sorts of big guarantees now?

I dont see a new deal coming unless it's way way below what Gordon wants.

So Gordon owners get ready for a very rocky start to the season for your RB.
That's the part I don't get - aside from the Chargers not having to tag him in 2020 until after this season.

He's set to make $5.6m this year, fully guaranteed (if he shows up), and if tagged he'll get around $12.6m, again fully guaranteed.  That's over $18m, fully guaranteed, for the next two years.  Again, I get that it's in two parts, and that the big chunk won't be guaranteed until next year, and only there assuming he's not hurt or ineffective this year.  If the Bolts are prepared to give him $18m+ guaranteed over just the next two years - why not do a deal of what McKinnon just got - 4 year $30m with $18m guaranteed ($7.5m of which was paid up front in bonuses).  He gets the guarantee now of next year's tag money....Chargers get a very, very good (I didn't say great) RB under contract for the next 4 years - 2 more than if they tag him next year and then let him walk....which they can still do with a deal like this.  Melvin would be in a better financial situation today, Chargers wouldn't be any worse off than if they tag him next year which they are apparently holding over his head as leverage.  Makes him roughly the 7th highest paid RB in the game today, though it wouldn't take much more to move him up to #5 which I think is more than fair. 

Of course I don't know what they've already offered him, or what he's requested. 

 
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There's a part of me that wants to see one of these teams being thrifty at the RB position completely go into the tank because of it.

These guys are sacrificing their bodies and not seeing the big payday relative to other positions.  But I guess that's today's NFL.

 
That's the part I don't get - aside from the Chargers not having to tag him in 2020 until after this season.

He's set to make $5.6m this year, fully guaranteed (if he shows up), and if tagged he'll get around $12.6m, again fully guaranteed.  That's over $18m, fully guaranteed, for the next two years.  Again, I get that it's in two parts, and that the big chunk won't be guaranteed until next year, and only there assuming he's not hurt or ineffective this year.  If the Bolts are prepared to give him $18m+ guaranteed over just the next two years - why not do a deal of what McKinnon just got - 4 year $30m with $18m guaranteed ($7.5m of which was paid up front in bonuses).  He gets the guarantee now of next year's tag money....Chargers get a very, very good (I didn't say great) RB under contract for the next 4 years - 2 more than if they tag him next year and then let him walk....which they can still do with a deal like this.  Melvin would be in a better financial situation today, Chargers wouldn't be any worse off than if they tag him next year which they are apparently holding over his head as leverage.  Makes him roughly the 7th highest paid RB in the game today, though it wouldn't take much more to move him up to #5 which I think is more than fair. 

Of course I don't know what they've already offered him, or what he's requested. 
I don't believe the Chargers have any intent to tag him next year, which is where this breaks down. They have too many other needs to spend $12M+ on a single RB, especially one who has gotten hurt and missed multiple games due to injury in 3 of his 4 seasons and has a significant injury history with his knee.

I certainly don't want them to ever pay him more than $7-8M in any season. He is a good player, but IMO he is also replaceable with a much cheaper solution.

 
[Anderson] Source on Melvin Gordon and Chargers extension talks: "They are not willing to move off a certain number."

https://twitter.com/JosinaAnderson/status/1154881684782886917?s=19

 
tkrull said:
There's a part of me that wants to see one of these teams being thrifty at the RB position completely go into the tank because of it.

These guys are sacrificing their bodies and not seeing the big payday relative to other positions.  But I guess that's today's NFL.
Pitt didn’t make the playoffs last year which likely wasn’t because Bell wasn’t there but the point remains.

 
Yahoo's Charles Robinson reports the Chargers and holdout RB Melvin Gordon are currently $2-$3 million apart in average annual value.

Per Robinson, the Chargers would be comfortable bettering Devonta Freeman's five-year, $41.25 million deal, but that Gordon is hoping for something in the range of David Johnson's three years and $39 million. That does not sound like a gap that will be bridged any time soon.

SOURCE: Charles Robinson on Twitter

Jul 27, 2019, 7:23 PM ET
 
Yahoo's Charles Robinson reports the Chargers and holdout RB Melvin Gordon are currently $2-$3 million apart in average annual value.

Per Robinson, the Chargers would be comfortable bettering Devonta Freeman's five-year, $41.25 million deal, but that Gordon is hoping for something in the range of David Johnson's three years and $39 million. That does not sound like a gap that will be bridged any time soon.

SOURCE: Charles Robinson on Twitter

Jul 27, 2019, 7:23 PM ET
#newmath

 
Exactly. I don't understand how that is only $2-3mil apart either.

Those two contracts also underscore precisely why you don't give RB's those types of deals. Does anyone honestly think Freeman/Johnson have been wise contracts for those two franchises?

I guess you could split the difference if Gordon was willing to structure it a certain way:

2019 : Gordon plays for the $5.6mil he was scheduled to make anyway.

2020 : Gordon gets $8mil on a team option

2021 : Gordon gets $9mil on a team option

2022 : Gordon gets $11mil on a team option

2023 : Gordon gets $12mil on a team option

That way Gordon and his agent could save face by announcing they signed a 4yr/$40mil deal. If the new CBA comes through and the new broadcast contracts have extra juice with an expanded schedule maybe $8-9mil doesn't even look that bad(as an overall percentage of the newly inflated salary cap) for the chargers and they pick up those years if they are playing well and/or Rivers declines making the running game the focal point on the team. As with most long term contracts the last two years are just to make the player/agent feel good about themselves and likely wouldn't actually matter.

It's hard to say what other options he really has. He didn't look very explosive at the end of last year(or really at the end of any regular season since he entered the league) and maybe he honestly doesn't think that he can make it through another regular season which is why he is hell-bent on getting more money before he touches the field again. I'm rooting for him to get as much money as possible as he seems like a team player and a hard worker..... but the chargers would just be idiotic to follow the Cardinals/Falcons blue print on how they handled Johnson/Freeman and it has kind of blown up in their faces. When Gordon ultimately hits the open market I think he will find a much colder reception than L.Bell did, and L.Bell got a much colder reception than L.Bell expected.

 
Melvin Gordon was just voted #34 to the Top 100 Players of 2019 list.  This is why the Chargers need to sign him to a long-term contract before the season starts.

 
Melvin Gordon was just voted #34 to the Top 100 Players of 2019 list.  This is why the Chargers need to sign him to a long-term contract before the season starts.
That list is meaningless. They should not sign him for anything close to what he wants. They have too many other new contracts coming for players more important to the team (Rivers, Bosa, Ingram, Pouncey, Allen, Henry, etc.).

 
$5.6 MM is nothing to sneeze at but if his agent thinks he can get at least $15-20MM guaranteed in free agency as long as he's healthy then I think he follows Bell's plan and sits for the year (although unlike Bell he'd need to show up and play at least one game I believe).

I don't see the Chargers caving here and I wouldn't be surprised if they start bringing veteran RBs in for workouts. Ekeler and Jackson in a tandem could probably replicate 85% of Gordon's production - the rest falls on Rivers and the passing game.

 
$5.6 MM is nothing to sneeze at but if his agent thinks he can get at least $15-20MM guaranteed in free agency as long as he's healthy then I think he follows Bell's plan and sits for the year (although unlike Bell he'd need to show up and play at least one game I believe).

I don't see the Chargers caving here and I wouldn't be surprised if they start bringing veteran RBs in for workouts. Ekeler and Jackson in a tandem could probably replicate 85% of Gordon's production - the rest falls on Rivers and the passing game.
Agree with the first part. I doubt they will bring in any veterans, though. First off, it is complicated by the fact that Gordon is under contract, and if/when he reports, his salary hits the cap. So they have to preserve cap room for that. More importantly, I think they have 3 RBs they really like (Ekeler, Jackson, and Newsome) and another that could earn a roster spot (Cox). Unless one of them gets hurt, I don't see a veteran being a need.

 
As a Gordon owner, I honestly view this as good news.  According to Over the Cap, Freeman is currently the #4 RB in terms of average earnings per year, while David Johnson is #4 - though the gap between them is pretty large.  Moreover, those two are #5 and #7 in terms of total guaranteed money on current deal.  It's not like they are between the #2 paid and #10 paid RBs here, they are pretty close when you line them up in order.

 
Taking a step back from the current contract drama, in my eyes Melvin Gordon has nearly reached ultimate buy-low status in some formats.

The main reason is that he’s a much better player than many in the fantasy community seem to believe. MG routinely gets killed by the YPC police but YPC is crap metric, game tape is much better and Gordon’s tape: A) is really good and B) highlights years of him overcoming horrific o-line play that YPC cops seem oblivious to. I remember seeing a thread back in March where a frequent poster here (who I won’t call out) made the argument that Josh Adams is better than Gordon and instead of getting laughed out of the thread, some other posters actually seemed to agree with him. There’s a weird narrative floating around that Gordon is mostly a product of the SD offense but, at least from a run-blocking standpoint, the reality is almost the complete opposite of that. So even before the holdout Gordon was a good target.

As far as the holdout goes, even if you don’t question the prevailing wisdom that Gordon is at significant risk to miss games (and I don’t), he doesn’t seem likely to miss the full season (there are conflicting reports on when he needs to show up, for now I'm writing under the assumption that he needs to report by late October for the season to toll). In most leagues that have forgiving playoff qualification criteria, regular season games carry a lot less impact on EV than many believe so missing 7-8 early season games, while being a significant short-term value drain for sure, is usually not as bad as it seems and there's also the possibility that he's traded or signs or reports earlier. It’s often correct to draft nearly any decent player with an early season suspension or absence (once it can become quantified) because emotion about the missed games tends to discount the player too much. Getting that kind of opportunity with a player who’s also an underrated talent is a rare convergence of value.

The big monkey wrench complicating Gordon’s status as dream acquisition target is the health of his knees. That part feels risky and possibly even very risky. But all other factors say acquire, acquire, acquire!

 
It would be nice to clear up the facts about when Gordon has to report this season.

First, there is the issue of what entitles a player to unrestricted free agency. Upon expiration of a player’s contract, if he has accrued 4 or more seasons in the NFL, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. An accrued season is defined as a season with 6 or more regular-season games on a club’s active/inactive, reserve/injured or reserve/physically unable to perform lists.

Many articles have said he has to report no later than after week 10, apparently based on a belief that he needs to accrue another season (or just taking something written elsewhere as fact without understanding the rules). Gordon doesn’t need to accrue another season — he has already accrued 4 seasons in the NFL.

Next, I have read on another message board that players under contract have to report by the Tuesday following week 10 in order to be eligible to play the rest of the season, but that post did not contain any source reference. I know this is true for franchise players and transition players, but Gordon is not in either of those categories.

My understanding has been that Gordon has to report for at least one game to avoid having his contract tolled, which would mean it carries over to next season with the exact same terms. (And the player does not have to play in that game.) Precedent with Joey Galloway has shown that reporting by the midpoint of the season (i.e., before the 9th game) prevents a contract from tolling. The language in the arbitrator’s ruling implies that possibly reporting for as little as a single game could be enough, but no player has tested that with a holdout longer than Galloway’s. Pretty good explanation of that in this PFT article.

Does anyone have a link that seems to be definitive on this? There is a big difference between:

  1. Must report by "midseason" (e.g., the Tuesday following the week 8 game), like @electric Ape stated above
  2. Must report by the Tuesday following the week 10 game
  3. Must report for just 1 game, maybe the week 17 game
I suspect it is probably academic, because given the weak RB market, I doubt Gordon is going to be willing to forego much, if any, of his $5.6M salary this season. So I expect he will miss no more than few games and maybe none, even if he doesn't get a contract. He can cloak it as not wanting to let his teammates down on a potential Super Bowl contender to save face. Of course, I never expected Bell to do what he did last year...

Still, without clarity on this, Gordon is on my DND list.

 
It would be nice to clear up the facts about when Gordon has to report this season. 

First, there is the issue of what entitles a player to unrestricted free agency. Upon expiration of a player’s contract, if he has accrued 4 or more seasons in the NFL, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. An accrued season is defined as a season with 6 or more regular-season games on a club’s active/inactive, reserve/injured or reserve/physically unable to perform lists.

Many articles have said he has to report no later than after week 10, apparently based on a belief that he needs to accrue another season (or just taking something written elsewhere as fact without understanding the rules). Gordon doesn’t need to accrue another season — he has already accrued 4 seasons in the NFL.

Next, I have read on another message board that players under contract have to report by the Tuesday following week 10 in order to be eligible to play the rest of the season, but that post did not contain any source reference. I know this is true for franchise players and transition players, but Gordon is not in either of those categories.

My understanding has been that Gordon has to report for at least one game to avoid having his contract tolled, which would mean it carries over to next season with the exact same terms. (And the player does not have to play in that game.) Precedent with Joey Galloway has shown that reporting by the midpoint of the season (i.e., before the 9th game) prevents a contract from tolling. The language in the arbitrator’s ruling implies that possibly reporting for as little as a single game could be enough, but no player has tested that with a holdout longer than Galloway’s. Pretty good explanation of that in this PFT article.

Does anyone have a link that seems to be definitive on this? There is a big difference between:

  1. Must report by "midseason" (e.g., the Tuesday following the week 8 game), like @electric Ape stated above
  2. Must report by the Tuesday following the week 10 game
  3. Must report for just 1 game, maybe the week 17 game
I suspect it is probably academic, because given the weak RB market, I doubt Gordon is going to be willing to forego much, if any, of his $5.6M salary this season. So I expect he will miss no more than few games and maybe none, even if he doesn't get a contract. He can cloak it as not wanting to let his teammates down on a potential Super Bowl contender to save face. Of course, I never expected Bell to do what he did last year...

Still, without clarity on this, Gordon is on my DND list.
99.9% correct:

1.  He doesn't need the accrued year.  It's helpful for seniority/benefits/insurance stuff, but it now has little meaning to him contractually. 
2.  Week 10 is meaningless to Gordon as well.
3.  He only has to report for 1 game in order for the contract to not toll (and then not give the team any reason to suspend him for that game).

The .1% is the "good faith" component.  If Gordon walks in Friday night at 11:59 and says "hey, I'm here to fulfill my contractual obligation" the team would have a decent argument that he hasn't in good faith fulfilled the teams of the contract, or if he plays week 1 then sprains his tongue and doesn't go the rest of the season same issue may pop up.  It's pretty inconceivable a professional athlete would go to either of these extremes, but it's out there.  I think if week 5/6/7 rolls around and there's no movement by the team he'll accept his fate and get in and get to work - he's got 31 other teams watching to audition for after all.

 
IMO, the LeVeon option is very real.  Not just for Gordon but the RB position in general.  Just think about how we feel about Todd Gurley now vs 12 months ago?  Gurley was lucky, he secured his money.  But Gordon/Zeke?

For Gordon...he’s sacrificing $5.6M in 2019 to put himself on the market with fresh legs in 2020?  LeVeon essentially signed a 2 year $28M deal when you look at the guarantees.

Teams are right to be prudent about their investments in the position...RB’s need to counter that prudence by ensuring they aren’t damaged goods when it comes to getting paid.

 
IMO, the LeVeon option is very real.  Not just for Gordon but the RB position in general.  Just think about how we feel about Todd Gurley now vs 12 months ago?  Gurley was lucky, he secured his money.  But Gordon/Zeke?

For Gordon...he’s sacrificing $5.6M in 2019 to put himself on the market with fresh legs in 2020?  LeVeon essentially signed a 2 year $28M deal when you look at the guarantees.

Teams are right to be prudent about their investments in the position...RB’s need to counter that prudence by ensuring they aren’t damaged goods when it comes to getting paid.
The aren't enough teams as stupid as the Jets for this to work. There is a reason why teams don't give RB's big contracts: It is a terrible idea. 

 
IMO, the LeVeon option is very real.  Not just for Gordon but the RB position in general.  Just think about how we feel about Todd Gurley now vs 12 months ago?  Gurley was lucky, he secured his money.  But Gordon/Zeke?

For Gordon...he’s sacrificing $5.6M in 2019 to put himself on the market with fresh legs in 2020?  LeVeon essentially signed a 2 year $28M deal when you look at the guarantees.

Teams are right to be prudent about their investments in the position...RB’s need to counter that prudence by ensuring they aren’t damaged goods when it comes to getting paid.
But the Jets are now committed to Bell. What team is going to be willing to pay Gordon that kind of money? I am skeptical any team will do that. In other words, I doubt any team will be as stupid as the Jets were with Bell.

Also, Gordon cannot literally do what Bell did. He has to report for at least 1 game to become a UFA. That introduces a different dynamic... if reporting for 1 game on a Super Bowl contender, and then having to set foot in the locker room with your teammates, why not more than 1 game? 

 
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And play it out for Elliott.

He has to accrue another season, so say he sits out the first 10 weeks this season and then reports. Assume Dallas plays him the last 6 games. That means he would have cost himself $2.4M in salary plus any fines the Cowboys impose (can be up to $40K per day of training camp per the CBA). He also may have cost the Cowboys a playoff spot.

Then, next season, under his 5th year option, say he sits out the first 16 weeks and reports. I doubt Dallas would play him in that game. He would have cost himself another $8.5M in salary plus fines. And maybe again he cost the Cowboys a playoff spot.

And after all that, he would be a UFA. Having played just 33 games in the preceding 4 seasons, including just 6 in the preceding 2 seasons. With his off field history. Having screwed his team and teammates for 2 years. Anyone think a team would sign him to a big contract? No way. 

This would possibly ensure he isn’t damaged goods physically when he reaches free agency, but he would be damaged goods in another way. 

But if he isn’t going to go all the way, what is the point of his holdout? He has zero leverage, just like Gordon. 

 
The aren't enough teams as stupid as the Jets for this to work. There is a reason why teams don't give RB's big contracts: It is a terrible idea. 


But the Jets are now committed to Bell. What team is going to be willing to pay Gordon that kind of money? I am skeptical any team will do that. In other words, I doubt any team will be as stupid as the Jets were with Bell.

Also, Gordon cannot literally do what Bell did. He has to report for at least 1 game to become a UFA. That introduces a different dynamic... if reporting for 1 game on a Super Bowl contender, and then having to set foot in the locker room with your teammates, why not more than 1 game? 
The overall point is if teams have figured out how fragile the RB position is...the RB’s are now recognizing that as well.  If Melvin Gordon has another Gordon type year, does he get a better contract in FA in 2020 than if he were a FA right now?  I don’t think so.  If anything, teams will say...that’s another 325 touches where you put more tread on those tires.

It takes one team to be stupid...right now, all Gordon is guaranteed is $5.6M.   No doubt sitting out is a cautious move, but it’s a viable one as the NFL turns a cold shoulder to the position and these guys mitigate risk by taking physical deterioration/degeneration and injury off the table.

 
If the Chargers really did offer him a deal better than the deal D Freeman got (5 year, $41.25M with $22M guaranteed), I don't know why he hasn't signed it.  He's only getting $5.6M this year and then hoping for a big deal next year with another year of wear and tear on him?  The Freeman deal would give him $16.5M+ more in guaranteed money now, and depending on the makeup of the deal it could all be in the 2019-2021 seasons - so the possibility remains for yet another deal after that one. 

 
TheDirtyWord said:
The overall point is if teams have figured out how fragile the RB position is...the RB’s are now recognizing that as well.  If Melvin Gordon has another Gordon type year, does he get a better contract in FA in 2020 than if he were a FA right now?  I don’t think so.  If anything, teams will say...that’s another 325 touches where you put more tread on those tires.

It takes one team to be stupid...right now, all Gordon is guaranteed is $5.6M.   No doubt sitting out is a cautious move, but it’s a viable one as the NFL turns a cold shoulder to the position and these guys mitigate risk by taking physical deterioration/degeneration and injury off the table.
There isn't going to be a huge deal for him if he skips this year. No way he can make up the 5.6M he loses.

 
Why not?  He wouldn’t be able to score a large deal to the highest bidder with a ton of guarantees?
The same reason the Chargers won't give him one now. It would be stupid to do so. The NFL has figured out RB's contribute less to team success than many other positions. Plus Gordan has an injury history and even a 3 year deal would take him to age 30.

 
The same reason the Chargers won't give him one now. It would be stupid to do so. The NFL has figured out RB's contribute less to team success than many other positions. Plus Gordan has an injury history and even a 3 year deal would take him to age 30.
Deals that have been signed by RB’s in the last 12 months...let’s just look at the guarantees...

Gurley:  $21M SB - $45M guaranteed

Johnson:  $12M SB - $31.9M guaranteed

Bell: $8M SB - $27M guaranteed

IMO, Gordon has every right to consider himself in that category of RB.  He endangers himself by playing out the final year...it’s not about making up the $5.6M, it about securing the $30M or whatever his number is.  If it doesn’t happen now, then he withholds services and stays healthy for 31 other teams to consider.  Someone will pay, someone always does.

 
First, no way is he in that class. Second, do you think the Rams are happy about that deal?
Gordon has averaged 106 YFS & .9 TD’s per game the last 3 seasons.  There’s a reason he’s always drafted in Round 1.

The Rams may not be happy about that deal, but Gurley is...and in this scenario, Gordon is Gurley.  He looks at Gurley and realizes that by making his play for his big contract sooner rather than later, he secured his future.  What kind of contract you think Gurley would get now?

 
Gordon has averaged 106 YFS & .9 TD’s per game the last 3 seasons.  There’s a reason he’s always drafted in Round 1.

The Rams may not be happy about that deal, but Gurley is...and in this scenario, Gordon is Gurley.  He looks at Gurley and realizes that by making his play for his big contract sooner rather than later, he secured his future.  What kind of contract you think Gurley would get now?
Using per game numbers doesn't take into account that he has missed significant time in all but one season in his career. More so, those numbers are good, but they are not close to the guys you are comparing him to. Last year was his first season breaking 4 yds/r.

I am not faulting Gordan for wanting to get paid. I am saying any team willing to do so is dumb. There are only so many Jets teams around.

 
First, no way is he in that class. Second, do you think the Rams are happy about that deal?
OK, so even if not in "that class", what about....

D Freeman (2 years ago) - $22m guaranteed

Shady (4 years ago) - $18.25m guaranteed

Barkley (as a rookie having never played a down, last year) - $31.2m guaranteed

McKinnon (last year) - $18m guaranteed

Fournette (as a rookie, yada yada, 2 years ago) - $27.15m guaranteed

L Miller (3 years ago) - $14m guaranteed ($26m overall, which he'll get unless cut this season)

Zeke (rookie deal) - $25m guaranteed

I agree with you that Gordon isn't in the class above, but here's another 7 guys giving you a total of 10 - and it's hard to argue that Gordon hasn't at least been a top 10 RB since entering the league.  As of today, his career earnings are less than $11m total - with only a guaranteed additional $5.6m for this year. 

 
OK, so even if not in "that class", what about....

D Freeman (2 years ago) - $22m guaranteed

Shady (4 years ago) - $18.25m guaranteed

Barkley (as a rookie having never played a down, last year) - $31.2m guaranteed

McKinnon (last year) - $18m guaranteed

Fournette (as a rookie, yada yada, 2 years ago) - $27.15m guaranteed

L Miller (3 years ago) - $14m guaranteed ($26m overall, which he'll get unless cut this season)

Zeke (rookie deal) - $25m guaranteed

I agree with you that Gordon isn't in the class above, but here's another 7 guys giving you a total of 10 - and it's hard to argue that Gordon hasn't at least been a top 10 RB since entering the league.  As of today, his career earnings are less than $11m total - with only a guaranteed additional $5.6m for this year. 
How many of those deals look good? The Chargers have been rumored to have offered a deal similar to the Freeman one. I am not sure what his career earnings have to do with how much he should be paid in the future.

 
How many of those deals look good? The Chargers have been rumored to have offered a deal similar to the Freeman one. I am not sure what his career earnings have to do with how much he should be paid in the future.
Look good or look bad - I'm just saying that's the market.  That's the market that Gordon is a part of. 

I included career earnings because of folks saying that other deals look bad, as you just did.  You asking if McKinnon getting $18m guaranteed (or Fournette getting $27m) looks good when he then got hurt means it was great for the player, bad for the team.  Bringing up Gordon getting only $11m over 4 years when he made the pro bowl in two of them is the opposite of that - low for the player, but good (if not great) for the team.  I think that's part of Gordon's gripe here. 

 
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