What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (3 Viewers)

The conversation in here has turned a little strange. People have really dug into their positions. As kind of an outsider to the whole thing, Gordon showed one thing: that LA could go with two other guys for less money and get reasonably similar results. He showed he was replaceable. Heck, one back on the roster is rated the 8th overall back thus far into the season in the league by PFF. That's impressive.

 
The injury angle is not as viable as you think. Every minute presents injury possibilities. If he was worried about injuries he should realize then that he is in the wrong business. EVERY time you set foot on a football field injury is possible. Period. Don't sign if you don't want to risk that. He may be setting himself up for injury moreso from this holdout. We don't know. What I do know is that holdouts lead to soft tissue injuries. We have seen that over and over. Missed games with checks are better though right? 
I can't even respond to this.  You're right.  He should change careers.  Plenty of things Melvin Gordon could do to make $10MM per year, I'm quite sure.  He shouldn't have signed that slotted rookie deal four years ago which fixed his wages for five years regardless of his performance. He should've just went and taught at his local high school.  

If he was worried about injuries he should realize he's in the wrong business. Don't sign if you don't want to risk that.  I'd get banned if I said what I felt about that statement.  Gordon is simply attempting to maximize his earnings.  Ya know, like most people do in their respective professions.  Except in most professions you don't sit around in 2019 making $80K knowing that next year you'll be making $300K per year with $1.5MM guaranteed, but before that occurs you suffer a debilitating injury such that every prospective employer now says that you're actually now only worth $40K per year with no guarantee of future earnings.   

The injury concern is the primary thing that Melvin Gordon is concerned about this year, I can virtually guarantee you that.  And if you think the risk for injury while training alone for two months = the risk for injury during an NFL training camp and playing in NFL games, then I'm not sure this conversation is going anywhere.  In fact, it's not.  Good luck Charger Nation!

 
The conversation in here has turned a little strange. People have really dug into their positions. As kind of an outsider to the whole thing, Gordon showed one thing: that LA could go with two other guys for less money and get reasonably similar results. He showed he was replaceable. Heck, one back on the roster is rated the 8th overall back thus far into the season in the league by PFF. That's impressive.
The chargers are 1-2. What it showed is Ekeler is a great receiving back and medicore rusher (we knew this and that will be his role on the team). Jackson is a good runner and medicore receiver. Gordon is the best rusher and still a great receiving back. This is the main reason he will see at minimum 65% of the snaps.

 
PFF rates Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler the 11th and 8th best all-around backs in the NFL. Not sure where Gordon sits in relation. I'm not sure anyone is going to have their mind changed by rankings and facts, though, as the issue seems very impassioned on both sides.

I'm just saying if you have those two guys on your roster, you might not want them competing with you.

 
Lynn made it clear, however, that once Gordon is ready to roll, he'll be the workhorse.

"No doubt. He's our starter," the coach said. "He was the starter for a reason and I like the way Austin and J.J [Justin Jackson]'s been working. They've done a heck of a job. They've both proved they can play in this league, but they will still have a major role in the offense. But as soon as Melvin's ready, he'll go back. He'll go back to No. 1."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001059135/article/anthony-lynn-gordon-will-be-no-1-rb-when-hes-ready

 
Lynn made it clear, however, that once Gordon is ready to roll, he'll be the workhorse.

"No doubt. He's our starter," the coach said. "He was the starter for a reason and I like the way Austin and J.J [Justin Jackson]'s been working. They've done a heck of a job. They've both proved they can play in this league, but they will still have a major role in the offense. But as soon as Melvin's ready, he'll go back. He'll go back to No. 1."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001059135/article/anthony-lynn-gordon-will-be-no-1-rb-when-hes-ready
Where does it say “workhorse”?

 
So starter = workhorse?

Cool.  Matt Breida is a workhorse too.
hey whatever. not trying to win the internet or nothing but starter has meant 60+% of all snaps in the Charger history last 10 years if not way more. That is a lot fyi but we will have to wait and see won't we. If you are right I will give you a like on your post Jan 2020. 

 
hey whatever. not trying to win the internet or nothing but starter has meant 60+% of all snaps in the Charger history last 10 years if not way more. That is a lot fyi but we will have to wait and see won't we. If you are right I will give you a like on your post Jan 2020. 
LOL.  Doesn’t matter to me, I have Gordon and Ekeler.   :shrug:

It’s just odd to see the term workhorse.  IMO that implies a fairly high usage rate.

 
I didn't even think he was eligible to play.  If he is, wouldn't the Dolphins be the perfect team to have him play against to get him up to speed?
This is a bit tricky, but I have to imagine that if he suits up he will be getting a good number of snaps.  I will play him against the lowly Dolphins if that’s the case over James White.

 
Count me in with those saying Gordon will get high usage.  They don't care about his long term health since he'll likely be gone next year.  And if he gets hurt it's no biggie since they have very capable backups.  They are going to milk Gordon for every thing they can and in the process will be preserving Ekeler and Jackson for the future.  The Charger's coaches/front office/ownership might even get a little satisfaction if Gordon does get hurt.

 
This is a bit tricky, but I have to imagine that if he suits up he will be getting a good number of snaps.  I will play him against the lowly Dolphins if that’s the case over James White.
You don't want to be benching White this week. NE will be feeding him in the receiving game. Burkhead and Edelman are both banged up and they have no healthy TE's . . . so they won't be able to run much.

 
Career Stats: 

Yds/Car: Gordon: 4.0 / Ekeler 5.1

Carries/TD:  Gordon 32 / Ekeler 27

Yds/Rec: Gordon 8.7 / Ekeler 10.9 

Catch% : Gordon 74.9% / Ekeler 78.7%

Yds/Touch: Gordon 4.8 / Ekeler 6.8 

:popcorn:  

I do think it would be wise for them to get their money’s worth before letting Gordon go and handing the job to the superior back next year. 

Gordon will likely get every chance to carry the bigger slice of this shared backfield, this year. However, if Gordon reverts to his sub 4.0YPC ways, I could see Ekeler possibly taking back a larger share down the stretch. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I doubt Anthony Lynn would get any satisfaction but I don't think highly of the Spanos family.  People can be petty.
The Spanos family is the definition of suck in SD. NO ONE here would piss on them if they were on fire. I have to say though I doubt they wish injury to any player in their employ. Truly. They have their own injuries. Self inflicted or not. See patriarch.

 
Alex and Dean may be lousy owners, but none of the Spanoses are wishing injury on anybody.
A not insignificant part of the population is selfish, petty, and vindictive.  You often see the selfishness on this board when someone is happy when a player gets hurt because it helps their fantasy team.  And then that person gets chastised.  It's not an infrequent occurrence.  From what I've seen of the Spanos family, they seem shallower than your average owner.

 
I think folks continue to ignore the fact that Gordon holding out reduced his chance of injury.  He missed training camp and a quarter of the season, and it cost him some money in the short term.  But he’s back in plenty of time to showcase his talents to the league while significantly reducing his chance of injury.   If the chargers weren’t going to pay him what he wanted it makes sense to go with that approach to give yourself the best chance at securing a big contract in the off season 

 
A not insignificant part of the population is selfish, petty, and vindictive.  You often see the selfishness on this board when someone is happy when a player gets hurt because it helps their fantasy team.  And then that person gets chastised.  It's not an infrequent occurrence.  From what I've seen of the Spanos family, they seem shallower than your average owner.
You appear to be making a really weird inference about people you seem not to know all that well.

 
I think folks continue to ignore the fact that Gordon holding out reduced his chance of injury.  He missed training camp and a quarter of the season, and it cost him some money in the short term.  But he’s back in plenty of time to showcase his talents to the league while significantly reducing his chance of injury.   If the chargers weren’t going to pay him what he wanted it makes sense to go with that approach to give yourself the best chance at securing a big contract in the off season 
By what percentage chance do you think he reduced the likelihood of suffering an injury that would have affected his future earnings?

In the worst-case scenario, how much do you think an injury might have reduced his future earnings?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
A not insignificant part of the population is selfish, petty, and vindictive.  You often see the selfishness on this board when someone is happy when a player gets hurt because it helps their fantasy team.  And then that person gets chastised.  It's not an infrequent occurrence.  From what I've seen of the Spanos family, they seem shallower than your average owner.
No one is saying you are wrong. Some might disagree. I'm one of those who do. For all we know they are devil worshipers and are currently rubbing chicken blood all over themselves and wishing Melvin spontaneously combusts  on the 50 yard line. Just as he was scoring on a 79 yard td....  all the while ordering from Doordash orange chicken from Panda Express. No insult intended but you get my point right? 

 
Career Stats: 

Yds/Car: Gordon: 4.0 / Ekeler 5.1

Carries/TD:  Gordon 32 / Ekeler 27

Yds/Rec: Gordon 8.7 / Ekeler 10.9 

Catch% : Gordon 74.9% / Ekeler 78.7%

Yds/Touch: Gordon 4.8 / Ekeler 6.8 

:popcorn:  

I do think it would be wise for them to get their money’s worth before letting Gordon go and handing the job to the superior back next year. 

Gordon will likely get every chance to carry the bigger slice of this shared backfield, this year. However, if Gordon reverts to his sub 4.0YPC ways, I could see Ekeler possibly taking back a larger share down the stretch. 
Holy statistical cherry-picking Batman!!!!

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
By what percentage chance do you think he reduced the likelihood of suffering an injury that would have affected his future earnings?

In the worst-case scenario, how much do you think an injury might have reduced his future earnings?
Well he missed a quarter of the season and training camp so probably somewhere between 25-30%

Worst case scenario he tears his knee and it costs him his contract, so a lot

 
SayWhat? said:
But can you answer whether the Chargers might be 2-1 instead of 1-2 if they had Gordon?  You'll never know.  But I bet the Chargers wish he had reported before Week 1.  
I can say definitively that the RBs were not the problem with the Chargers in the first 3 games. I think that is obvious. If you think Gordon would have made the difference in either loss, I'd like to hear your rationale.

 
Well he missed a quarter of the season and training camp so probably somewhere between 25-30%

Worst case scenario he tears his knee and it costs him his contract, so a lot
So your perspective is that it is a given that if a RB participates in training camp, preseason, and the regular season, he is guaranteed to suffer an injury that would affect his future earnings? That is what you are representing here.

 
Well he missed a quarter of the season and training camp so probably somewhere between 25-30%

Worst case scenario he tears his knee and it costs him his contract, so a lot
Let's put some numbers to it.

Over the course of a 16-game season, a starting running back has about an X% chance of suffering an injury that affects his future earnings. By sitting out, Gordon has reduced that chance by 30%.

If Gordon gets injured so badly that he never gets another contract, he'll lose about $Y in future earnings.

What are your estimates of X and Y?

(I would say that X is no more than 3%, and Y is no more than $50 million, but I'm open to arguments for different numbers. I say that X is no more than 3% because I don't think anyone can come close to naming starting 20 RBs it's happened to over the last 20 years. And I don't think he'd lose more than $50 million because that's how much Ezekiel Elliot was just guaranteed.)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I can say definitively that the RBs were not the problem with the Chargers in the first 3 games. I think that is obvious. If you think Gordon would have made the difference in either loss, I'd like to hear your rationale.
You can definitively say that the RBs were not the problem?  I don’t even have to go back a half game to come up with plausible rationale.  You think the Chargers might have liked to utilize their best RB in the 2nd half of a game in which they held a 17-7 halftime lead on the road in Houston?  You don’t at all think there’s a chance that Gordon may have allowed them to lean on the run just a little bit?  Sustain a drive or two?   Or did it make more sense to end a game like that with a 46:18 pass to run ratio?  Sure seemed like they might have a more balanced attack with Gordon available than not.  I can say that’s definitively plausible.

 
I can say definitively that the RBs were not the problem with the Chargers in the first 3 games. I think that is obvious. If you think Gordon would have made the difference in either loss, I'd like to hear your rationale.
It’s a bit ridiculous to state emphatically what would or wouldn’t have happened.
Can you show me where I did that? I said that IMO the RBs were not the problem. I said that if anyone thinks Gordon would have made the difference, I would like to hear their rationale as to why.

I don't see that as stating emphatically what would or wouldn't have happened. Are you saying you disagree with that?

 
Can you show me where I did that? I said that IMO the RBs were not the problem. I said that if anyone thinks Gordon would have made the difference, I would like to hear their rationale as to why.

I don't see that as stating emphatically what would or wouldn't have happened. Are you saying you disagree with that?
I don’t think it’s crazy to envision a scenario where the outcome changes with Gordon in the game.  

My apologies for misreading your comment.

 
So your perspective is that it is a given that if a RB participates in training camp, preseason, and the regular season, he is guaranteed to suffer an injury that would affect his future earnings? That is what you are representing here.
No.  Not sure where you’re getting that from

 
Let's put some numbers to it.

Over the course of a 16-game season, a starting running back has about an X% chance of suffering an injury that affects his future earnings. By sitting out, Gordon has reduced that chance by 30%.

If Gordon gets injured so badly that he never gets another contract, he'll lose about $Y in future earnings.

What are your estimates of X and Y?

(I would say that X is no more than 3%, and Y is no more than $50 million, but I'm open to arguments for different numbers. I say that X is no more than 3% because I don't think anyone can come close to naming starting 20 RBs it's happened to over the last 20 years. And I don't think he'd lose more than $50 million because that's how much Ezekiel Elliot was just guaranteed.)
You can put any percentage on it you want (not saying you’re right or wrong), all that matters is that if these guys get in their heads that their best chance at a big pay day is holding out and reducing their exposure to injury, that’s what they’re gonna do. Folks in here saying he got terrible advice and should fire his agent aren’t considering that may have been his plan all along. Regardless how small a chance, one bad knee injury and he can kiss his contract goodbye.   It’s like risking $25 mil in the long run to earn $3 mil now. No matter how small a chance, it’s still a big risk 

 
I think his agents have a responsibility to do the math.

If he reduced his risk of missing out on $50 million from 3% to 2%, which uses the highest numbers that I think are remotely plausible, that's worth $500,000, statistically, in reduced risk.

He paid around $3,000,000 for that reduced risk.

Even if he's very risk-averse, that doesn't seem like a great deal. In pure monetary terms, I think it's basically impossible to make a reasonable case that sitting out was the right way to maximize his expected earnings.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
georg013 said:
Holy statistical cherry-picking Batman!!!!
@georg013 I open the door for you to show non-cumulative stats that contradict what I’ve shared here. That’s every per touch/carry metric available that I’m aware of. 

Please, Share the non counting metrics where Gordon excels with the class. 

Unless your argument is that Gordon is a creature of opportunity and is highly volume dependent, in which case we would agree :)  

Before the straw man reads his head: I don’t disagree Gordon gets first crack at the big slice of this pie. I’m purely looking at Quality of output, which you seem to question. 

:popcorn:  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ill give it a shot just for funsies, not that I really care one way or the other.

Since 2017 (when Ekeler entered the league) in the games they started at RB...

Gordon 4.33 avg. 2 fumbles in 507 touches.
Ekeler 3.70 avg. 1 fumble in 109 touches.

 
I think his agents have a responsibility to do the math.

If he reduced his risk of missing out on $50 million from 3% to 2%, which uses the highest numbers that I think are remotely plausible, that's worth $500,000, statistically, in reduced risk.

He paid around $3,000,000 for that reduced risk.

Even if he's very risk-averse, that doesn't seem like a great deal. In pure monetary terms, I think it's basically impossible to make a reasonable case that sitting out was the right way to maximize his expected earnings.
Didn’t he only miss three game checks? Are you counting fines because in almost every case they’re waived by the team when the player comes back?

 
Didn’t he only miss three game checks? Are you counting fines because in almost every case they’re waived by the team when the player comes back?
Can’t confirm this but have read players are paid on Wednesdays, in which case he missed 4 regular season checks. (Making it odd he chose to report on a Thursday.)

It has been reported that the Chargers will collect all fines. Not sure if that will hold, but, if so, he gave up about $3.3M if his $5.6M salary this season to hold out for 64 days. 

$30K/day of missed training camp x 23 days + $330K per missed preseason game x 4 games + $330K per missed regular season week x 4 weeks = ~$3.3M

 
Last edited by a moderator:
@georg013 I open the door for you to show non-cumulative stats that contradict what I’ve shared here. That’s every per touch/carry metric available that I’m aware of. 

Please, Share the non counting metrics where Gordon excels with the class. 

Unless your argument is that Gordon is a creature of opportunity and is highly volume dependent, in which case we would agree :)  

Before the straw man reads his head: I don’t disagree Gordon gets first crack at the big slice of this pie. I’m purely looking at Quality of output, which you seem to question. 

:popcorn:  
Just curious which player do you think would have better averages.

Player A: workhorse who gets touches on all types of down and distances

Player B: guy who started a few games but got must of his rushing touches on third and long

 
Let's put some numbers to it.

Over the course of a 16-game season, a starting running back has about an X% chance of suffering an injury that affects his future earnings. By sitting out, Gordon has reduced that chance by 30%.

If Gordon gets injured so badly that he never gets another contract, he'll lose about $Y in future earnings.

What are your estimates of X and Y?

(I would say that X is no more than 3%, and Y is no more than $50 million, but I'm open to arguments for different numbers. I say that X is no more than 3% because I don't think anyone can come close to naming starting 20 RBs it's happened to over the last 20 years. And I don't think he'd lose more than $50 million because that's how much Ezekiel Elliot was just guaranteed.)
According to Spotrac, Gordon is worth around $11.75M per year and he's getting older by the minute. I think a team would make an offer however as many point out, there are going to be juicy options in the draft next year. How many teams want to commit $50M to Gordon over 4-5 years? $20M guaranteed perhaps? 

He is risking $3M he will make and absorb a lot of fines vs stay away and likely collect a minimum of $15M guaranteed even if he had a short 3 year deal for say $35M, close to the market value of $12M per year...it's a huge risk MT and an excellent point you are bringing up or expanding on. I drafted Gordon in the 7th/8th to stash so I'm excited he is coming in now vs later in the season HOWEVER I agree that the risk might not be worth it. He tears an ACL, nobody is extending the Kevin Durant deal to him. 

One other point though is Gordon can take himself out of the game more often and will be cautious with absorbing hits. I will be interested to see if he avoids certain types of contact. 

 
Just curious which player do you think would have better averages.

Player A: workhorse who gets touches on all types of down and distances

Player B: guy who started a few games but got must of his rushing touches on third and long
Ahhh the old “question with a question” strategy. So what I’m hearing is you DON’T have a metric that shows Gordon is a better back? 

What about Ekeler’s superior yardage after contact and superior broken tackle rate. That due to “only 3rd and long” too? 

Im assuming by your post that you have data that shows Gordon is superior to Ekeler in these metrics during early down work? 

If your only argument for Gordon being a superior back is “he’s done the job longer” (albeit an inferior job, statistically).... well.... 

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top