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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (1 Viewer)

A couple of thoughts.

I was able to watch most of the game.  The SD O line is much improved. This will be good for Gordon and Woodhead.  Woodhead did get a ton of snaps and looked good. Gordon also looked good.  Gordon is not going to end the year with 0 receptions here either guys. He will get worked into the passing game at least some.  

This at times will be a frustrating season. Gordon looks vastly better all be it a small sample size and should hopefully be worked in as the guy getting lion share of the work and Woodhead as more of 3 down COP guy.  The issue will be when Chargers are playing from behind it could spell very limited snaps for Gordon which will suck.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
A couple of thoughts.

I was able to watch most of the game.  The SD O line is much improved. This will be good for Gordon and Woodhead.  Woodhead did get a ton of snaps and looked good. Gordon also looked good.  Gordon is not going to end the year with 0 receptions here either guys. He will get worked into the passing game at least some.  

This at times will be a frustrating season. Gordon looks vastly better all be it a small sample size and should hopefully be worked in as the guy getting lion share of the work and Woodhead as more of 3 down COP guy.  The issue will be when Chargers are playing from behind it could spell very limited snaps for Gordon which will suck.
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Gordon had 23 snaps and they led 55+ minutes of the game.  Trying to move him while the two TDs are fresh.

 
Nugget said:
Gordon had 23 snaps and they led 55+ minutes of the game.  Trying to move him while the two TDs are fresh.
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I'm agnostic on how much to read into that. He was the lead back until Keenan Allen went down, after which the team made ad hoc changes to the offense that may or may not prevail with a full week to install an Allen-less game plan.

(For now, I've got Woodhead > Gordon, but I'm not extremely confident in that position.)

 
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And it wasn't a smart change. I don't understand why you go away from a heavy running game leading by so much. Assumption of rational coaching...

 
btemp said:
And it wasn't a smart change. I don't understand why you go away from a heavy running game leading by so much. Assumption of rational coaching...
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They actually ran more in the second half than in the first, it's just that in the first half Gordon had more carries than Woodhead (8 to 6) but in the second half, Woodhead had more (11 to 6). Gordon's success rate also dropped off a lot in the second half, not sure if that played into the carry distribution.

 
Just Win Baby said:
They actually ran more in the second half than in the first, it's just that in the first half Gordon had more carries than Woodhead (8 to 6) but in the second half, Woodhead had more (11 to 6). Gordon's success rate also dropped off a lot in the second half, not sure if that played into the carry distribution.
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But they ran primarily out of shotgun (with Woodhead in).  Just bizarre to me. Only went under center 8 times in the 2nd half (with 6 of those being Gordon carries). Went away from what worked in the 1st half. 

 
Gordon is the superior back to Woodhead and it is not really close.  Woodhead is a proven 3rd down receiving back that has a role. If the Chargers planning on being successful post Allen injury then need to allow Gordon to be more of a factor.  Woodhead has proven to be a back up running back in the NFL that is a very good receiving back.  There was a couple of holes in that last game that Woodhead was running through and getting to the second level that had it been Gordon it may have been bigger gains. Gordon is bigger, stronger and faster.  They oddly switched more to Woodhead in the 2nd half with the lead.

There is/was no need to give Woodhead more rushing attempts than Gordon, that was just poor coaching.  Woodehead has played 8 seasons in the NFL and has averaged 5.1 rushing attempts per game. Heck even his time in SD(the last 3 years) he has averaged 5.9 rushing attempts per game for a whopping 3.3 ypc.  There was no need to give Woodhead 16 attempts in that game when you were up multiple scores and your prized 1st round pick from last year was having himself a game. For those who were not watching Gordon looked really good hitting holes hard, taking what was given to him and being patient when he needed to be.  This is not a hit on Woodhead who as I acknowledged played well, but SD will not be successful if Woodhead is playing more snaps than Gordon. 

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
There is/was no need to give Woodhead more rushing attempts than Gordon, that was just poor coaching.
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Maybe you aren't familiar with the Chargers... Yes, it was poor coaching, and that is what you should probably expect going forward, because McCoy is a poor HC.

Carter_Can_Fly said:
Woodehead has played 8 seasons in the NFL and has averaged 5.1 rushing attempts per game. Heck even his time in SD(the last 3 years) he has averaged 5.9 rushing attempts per game for a whopping 3.3 ypc.  There was no need to give Woodhead 16 attempts in that game when you were up multiple scores and your prized 1st round pick from last year was having himself a game.
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I agree with you, I thought Gordon should have had more carries than he did in the second half. That said, devil's advocate:

Gordon as a Charger: 198 carries for 3.5 ypc; 6 fumbles in 231 touches
Woodhead as a Chargers: 235 carries for 3.8 ypc; 2 fumbles in 401 touches

Gordon in 1st half on Sunday: 4.9 ypc and 75% success rate on 8 carries
Gordon in 2nd half on Sunday: 3.0 ypc and 33% success rate on 6 carries
Woodhead in 1st half on Sunday: 6.0 ypc and 60% success rate on 5 carries
Woodhead in 2nd half on Sunday: 5.4 ypc and 55% success rate on 11 carries

:shrug:  

 
Woodhead won't last with that many touches IMHO.

I expect a lot more Gordon this weekend.  If Gordon's touches don't increase at home then there may be some cause for concern, depending on gameflow.

 
Obviously we don't celebrate injuries here.....but dammit after all the weeks of limiting Gordon shoo fly little Danny. Finally Mel got the game all to himself...and behold the beauty!

 
This could be a blessing in disguise for SD as they are forced to use Gordon as not only the primary guy but the every down guy and his dual threat ability will be on display moving forward. He seems like he will be a guy that will get better with more touches and being used in all facets of the game. 

I do hate seeing this with Woodhead though as he worked his way as an underdog RB, into one of the premier receiving backs in the game.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
This could be a blessing in disguise for SD as they are forced to use Gordon as not only the primary guy but the every down guy and his dual threat ability will be on display moving forward. He seems like he will be a guy that will get better with more touches and being used in all facets of the game. 

I do hate seeing this with Woodhead though as he worked his way as an underdog RB, into one of the premier receiving backs in the game.
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What I'm saying. He was always effective at both areas, I actually think he was vastly underrated as a receiver coming out of college. He just kept splitting carries and never had the opportunity to work himself into a rhythm a workhorse usually gets. Even last week, he looked progressively better that first half, but then they completely took him out the second half.

 
The season could not have unfolded better so far for Gordon's fantasy prospects.

  1. RB3 Oliver, who would have been the RB to replace Woodhead if he got hurt, got hurt in preseason and is out for the year.
  2. RB1b (to Gordon's RB1a) Woodhead was carted off in the 2Q of game 2. No word yet on his injury, but it seems likely he will miss several games.
  3. The combination of those 2 events will force Gordon's usage higher than it would have been otherwise.
  4. The OL is healthy and playing well.
  5. HOF TE Gates looks slow and has not been a big part of the offense.
  6. WR1 Allen would have been a focal point of the offense but is out for the season.
  7. New WR1 Benjamin scored a deep TD yesterday, and new WR2 Tyrell Williams has demonstrated speed and downfield playmaking 2 weeks in a row. So opposing defenses will have to worry about downfield threats.
  8. The team collapsed in an ugly come from ahead loss when most felt the coaches should have given Gordon more touches in the second half. Making it more of a point of emphasis going forward.
  9. He has not fumbled.
  10. He is playing well. Rivers has commented that he had a stretch in training camp where the lightbulb came on for him, and he is clearly more decisive in his running and playing with confidence.
All of this together led him to have his first 100 yard rushing game yesterday. He has 3 TDs in 2 games, and he even had 3 catches yesterday.

If the OL, Rivers, and the remaining targets stay healthy, Gordon should be a top 10 RB this season, maybe top 5.

 
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Woodhead out for the year with a torn ACL.

Expect the Chargers to sign another RB to play in specific passing situations (read: good at pass protection). I wouldn't be surprised if it is Donald Brown. That would be good for Gordon's fantasy outlook. Someone like Hillman might not be as good, since he would stand to take targets, not just pass protection snaps. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
The season could not have unfolded better so far for Gordon's fantasy prospects.

  1. RB3 Oliver, who would have been the RB to replace Woodhead if he got hurt, got hurt in preseason and is out for the year.
  2. RB1b (to Gordon's RB1a) Woodhead was carted off in the 2Q of game 2. No word yet on his injury, but it seems likely he will miss several games.
  3. The combination of those 2 events will force Gordon's usage higher than it would have been otherwise.
  4. The OL is healthy and playing well.
  5. HOF TE Gates looks slow and has not been a big part of the offense.
  6. WR1 Allen would have been a focal point of the offense but is out for the season.
  7. New WR1 Benjamin scored a deep TD yesterday, and new WR2 Tyrell Williams has demonstrated speed and downfield playmaking 2 weeks in a row. So opposing defenses will have to worry about downfield threats.
  8. The team collapsed in an ugly come from ahead loss when most felt the coaches should have given Gordon more touches in the second half. Making it more of a point of emphasis going forward.
  9. He has not fumbled.
  10. He is playing well. Rivers has commented that he had a stretch in training camp where the lightbulb came on for him, and he is clearly more decisive in his running and playing with confidence.
All of this together led him to have his first 100 yard rushing game yesterday. He has 3 TDs in 2 games, and he even had 3 catches yesterday.

If the OL, Rivers, and the remaining targets stay healthy, Gordon should be a top 10 RB this season, maybe top 5.
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thank you, my thoughts exactly and you did a better job detailing just how perfect this is for gordon's fantasy's prospects

 
mikmak8902 said:
Gotcha ... I don't remember what he was saying and won't bother to look.  I get your point though.  I just think you may have jumped the gun a bit in trying to serve this crow.
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Are you joking? What are you his Girlfriend, stay out of their business.  I love the Irony,  You bash someone for bashing someone but feel in the right.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Woodhead out for the year with a torn ACL.

Expect the Chargers to sign another RB to play in specific passing situations (read: good at pass protection). I wouldn't be surprised if it is Donald Brown. That would be good for Gordon's fantasy outlook. Someone like Hillman might not be as good, since he would stand to take targets, not just pass protection snaps. 
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they signed Griff Whalen

 
Billy Ball Thorton said:
Are you joking? What are you his Girlfriend, stay out of their business.  I love the Irony,  You bash someone for bashing someone but feel in the right.
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???? WTF are you talking about?  I was pointing out that his assessment over Gordon was premature.  

While we are talking about irony.  How about the fact that you're bashing me for bashing him for bashing another guy.  How about YOU mind your own business.  And you're only about a week late with this.  Jesus.  Go troll someplace else.  

 
Pipes said:
Poor form dude.  Woodhead didn't break down because of overuse, that wouldn't have happened as early as week 2.  His injury happens every week to guys who are much bigger and stronger than Danny.
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Woodhead broke down because he is not a workhorse, never has been...whether the injury was from overuse or not is beside the point.

 
Is it time to consider Gordon as a sell-high?

Against Indy and NO, considered to be two bottom of the barrel run defenses, he barely averaged two yards a carry, and is averaging just over 3 yards a carry on the season, against marginal defenses at best. This touchdown rate seems unsustainable (pro-rated out to 24 touchdowns for a 16 week FF year), and the emergence of Henry as a potential redzone weapon has me worried they might not turn as readily to Gordon for those goal line plunges he's been gifted so far this season. The only thing that gives me pause is his recent utilization in the passing game, fueled largely by the loss of Woodhead for the season:

Receiving numbers so far this season:

Week 1 - 0 targets, 0 catches, 0 yards

Week 2 - 3 targets, 3 catches, 18 yards

Week 3 - 7 targets, 4 catches, 43 yards

Week 4 - 7 targets, 6 catches, 43 yards

If he continues to generate almost 100 all purpose yards a game, with a score, I'm not sure I'll care too much what his yards per carry looks like. Should we expect Melvin Gordon to take a late season tumble down the rankings though, similar to Devonta Freeman last year, after his touchdown rate inevitably regresses to the expected mean? I'm strongly considering taking advantage of his current standing as the #3 running back overall in my league (0.5 PPR), packaging him with a guy like Diggs, and capitalizing on their hot streaks to go after a guy like Mike Evans from a RB hungry team. Freeman's fall from grace last season was abrupt and ugly, and I'm worried Gordon's 2016 campaign, fueled largely by an unsustainable TD rate, may take a similar path.

 
If you're going to regress his touchdowns back to the expected mean, you should regress his yards per carry up to the expected mean as well.

A lot depends on the offensive line. It's piling up injuries again. King Dunlap was out yesterday. Joe Barksdale played hurt. Orlando Franklin tried to play hurt but didn't make it very far. Dunlap's replacement, Chris Hairston, also got hurt in the first half and didn't return. So everything was all out of order ... like last year ... which is bad. But if those guys can get healthy again, I'd expect Gordon's YPC to be up around 4.0 on the season.

He is getting enough touches right now (and should continue to get them) that I wouldn't be looking to dump him. But I'd listen to offers.

 
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Moonshine said:
Is it time to consider Gordon as a sell-high?
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Maybe.

I would like to hear the thoughts of SD homers such as JustWinBaby or MT as I really haven't seen much of Gordon thus far this year.

The low YPC is a concern though and you make an excellent point about him facing some weaker defenses as well.

He has been averaging 19.7 rushing attempts per game the last 3 weeks and 5.7 targets per game. So the volume is excellent as long as that continues.

I would not move Stefon Diggs, he is the main weapon for the Vikings right now and I would expect that to be the case all year.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
If you're going to regress his touchdowns back to the expected mean, you should regress his yards per carry up to the expected mean as well.

A lot depends on the offensive line. It's piling up injuries again. King Dunlap was out yesterday. Joe Barksdale played hurt. Orlando Franklin tried to play hurt but didn't make it very far. Dunlap's replacement, Chris Hairston, also got hurt in the first half and didn't return. So everything was all out of order ... like last year ... which is bad. But if those guys can get healthy again, I'd expect Gordon's YPC to be up around 4.0 on the season.

He is getting enough touches right now (and should continue to get them) that I wouldn't be looking to dump him. But I'd listen to offers.
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Gordon is on a near historic TD pace so "regression to the mean" to something less than that seems extremely likely.  He averaged 3.5ypc last season, and is thus far at 3.2ypc this season.  Sure their line has incurred injuries and been relatively inconsistent, I'm just not convinced that even if all their regulars return that 4ypc is something that Gordon reasonably attains.  He just feels a bit underwhelming. 

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
If you're going to regress his touchdowns back to the expected mean, you should regress his yards per carry up to the expected mean as well.

A lot depends on the offensive line. It's piling up injuries again. King Dunlap was out yesterday. Joe Barksdale played hurt. Orlando Franklin tried to play hurt but didn't make it very far. Dunlap's replacement, Chris Hairston, also got hurt in the first half and didn't return. So everything was all out of order ... like last year ... which is bad. But if those guys can get healthy again, I'd expect Gordon's YPC to be up around 4.0 on the season.

He is getting enough touches right now (and should continue to get them) that I wouldn't be looking to dump him. But I'd listen to offers.
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Do you think the low ypc is mainly due to the offensive line play?

How does Gordon look compared to last season thus far?

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
If you're going to regress his touchdowns back to the expected mean, you should regress his yards per carry up to the expected mean as well.

A lot depends on the offensive line. It's piling up injuries again. King Dunlap was out yesterday. Joe Barksdale played hurt. Orlando Franklin tried to play hurt but didn't make it very far. Dunlap's replacement, Chris Hairston, also got hurt in the first half and didn't return. So everything was all out of order ... like last year ... which is bad. But if those guys can get healthy again, I'd expect Gordon's YPC to be up around 4.0 on the season.

He is getting enough touches right now (and should continue to get them) that I wouldn't be looking to dump him. But I'd listen to offers.
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Closing in on a year and a half of bad play. Not sure a regression to 3.5 upcoming is that significant. But in redraft he probably has some value because he's all they have. In dynasty he's a huge sell.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
If you're going to regress his touchdowns back to the expected mean, you should regress his yards per carry up to the expected mean as well.

A lot depends on the offensive line. It's piling up injuries again. King Dunlap was out yesterday. Joe Barksdale played hurt. Orlando Franklin tried to play hurt but didn't make it very far. Dunlap's replacement, Chris Hairston, also got hurt in the first half and didn't return. So everything was all out of order ... like last year ... which is bad. But if those guys can get healthy again, I'd expect Gordon's YPC to be up around 4.0 on the season.
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Great points, and I appreciate the insight. I wasn't completely aware of the seemingly total decimation of their OL, so I'll have to do some additional digging into that and factor that into my expectations.

I guess the issue with applying linear regression to Gordon in general is that the sample size is too small, so it's difficult to predict with any degree of certainty what level of regression we can expect. Last year, he averaged 3.5 yards per attempt, which wouldn't represent a significant upward regression from his current 3.2 YPC, and it is in line with what my expectation for what he would do this season (especially assuming the number of injuries on the OL are similar to what we saw last year). My assumption of touchdown regression is based less on what he's done in the past, and based more on the idea that he's currently on a historic pace, one that I wouldn't even expect proven workhorses (Bell, Peterson a few years ago, even DJohnson) to maintain. 

On the flip side, he has the added benefit of being utilized heavily on passing down plays, which provides a noted benefit from last year. I think the general consensus last year was that he wasn't 100% healthy either, which could have tempered his YPC, meaning his "mean" for YPC could very well be around 4.0, even with a marginalized offensive line.

As far as sell-high status, I am also making the assumption that his perceived value may never be higher than it is this week. With Denver on the docket twice in the next month, we could easily see is perceived value slip. On the other hand, Gordon does have positive match-ups against Oakland and Cleveland come most league's playoffs, so assuming the SD OL can get healthy, he may represent a strong hold as well.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
If you're going to regress his touchdowns back to the expected mean, you should regress his yards per carry up to the expected mean as well.

A lot depends on the offensive line. It's piling up injuries again. King Dunlap was out yesterday. Joe Barksdale played hurt. Orlando Franklin tried to play hurt but didn't make it very far. Dunlap's replacement, Chris Hairston, also got hurt in the first half and didn't return. So everything was all out of order ... like last year ... which is bad. But if those guys can get healthy again, I'd expect Gordon's YPC to be up around 4.0 on the season.

He is getting enough touches right now (and should continue to get them) that I wouldn't be looking to dump him. But I'd listen to offers.
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San Diego has no one else to turn to. If he continues to get 8-10 ppg in receiving alone, he's an automatic RB1 every week. 

I would listen to offers for Gordon, but no one has expressed interest. 

 
Zero RB said:
San Diego has no one else to turn to. If he continues to get 8-10 ppg in receiving alone, he's an automatic RB1 every week. 

I would listen to offers for Gordon, but no one has expressed interest. 
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Ultimately, this is the biggest hurdle in my previous assertion to sell high on him. You'll find very few owners who would give up a WR1 for Melvin Gordon, even though he's a lead back receiving 20ish touches a game, in a high scoring offense, with little in the way of competition, and currently sitting in the Top 3 in my scoring format at the position and Top 6 out of the W/R/T group. After his dud season last year, his name holds very little goodwill (similar to Isiah Crowell, in my opinion).

Now may very well be the best time to sell him, if that's the right move at all, but chances are you wouldn't get nearly the same value as you would for a Gurley/Charles/DJohnson, even if the stats were identical.

 
If you're looking to sell, I think waiting a week is probably okay. The Raiders have been pretty generous to opposing RBs so far this season.

 
Meh, week. Not horrible. Not outstanding. Still getting into the end zone so BOO-YAH! And to top it all off, he got himself back up to a 4+ ypc. We'll be alright folks.

 
ShamrockPride said:
Meh, week. Not horrible. Not outstanding. Still getting into the end zone so BOO-YAH! And to top it all off, he got himself back up to a 4+ ypc. We'll be alright folks.
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You're more optimistic than me at this point. I came away extremely underwhelmed watching him play, and at some point I feel like these fumbles are going to come back to bite him. The entire Chargers organization is currently a dumpster fire, and I continue to think the best for Gordon is behind him (at least as it relates to FF this year). This next month will be brutal with two Denver match ups, but even after that I don't expect him to return to his early season scoring extravaganza.

 
I was fortunate enough to have Bell and Elliot off my first two picks, Gordon was expendable to me. I would hold him if you can't muster up a trade you absolutely love, he seems to be scripted in for a touchdown a game so far this season, but each week we've seen more emphasis on stopping Gordon. Won't be too long until the well dries up.

 
Absolutely Nothing said:
I was fortunate enough to have Bell and Elliot off my first two picks, Gordon was expendable to me. I would hold him if you can't muster up a trade you absolutely love, he seems to be scripted in for a touchdown a game so far this season, but each week we've seen more emphasis on stopping Gordon. Won't be too long until the well dries up.
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I see progression as a runner that I like. He's not dancing as much, and I saw a handful of plays yesterday in short yardage situations where he dipped his head and got physical trying to bowl people over. It shows he's learning not every play needs to be a 20, 30 yard breakaway.

And idk if I agree with the well drying up, especially with the emergence of Tyrell and Benjamin still a solid deep threat.

 
ShamrockPride said:
I see progression as a runner that I like. He's not dancing as much, and I saw a handful of plays yesterday in short yardage situations where he dipped his head and got physical trying to bowl people over. It shows he's learning not every play needs to be a 20, 30 yard breakaway.

And idk if I agree with the well drying up, especially with the emergence of Tyrell and Benjamin still a solid deep threat.
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I do agree he is running much better than he did last year. I used to believe he wasn't talented enough to carry the team, but I've since revised that; I just don't think he has the talent around him to compete. I think the emergence of the receivers has more to do with the focus on Gordon than it does with those receivers being ascendant talents. Rivers is legit, Gordon is good, the rest of the team is either injured or bad.

 
It was the Broncos defense. Don't over think it. Pass protection was no better, Denver's D really is just that good. And if someone broke it down each carry, you'd see he had maybe 6-8 carries of 5-8 yards. But he was in a lot of 2nd/3rd and shirts where they just gave it to him to smash up the gut for a first. And he successfully played power back and got that first down 3 or 4 times last night.

 
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