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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
I think both can be true in this case. I could see him not topping this one tonight but we’ll see.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
He back
Dizzy
Footballguy
I put the first drop on the KCC pass rush. Rivers had to unload that ball a second too soon, hit Gordon awkward as he turned to look for it. The second one (4th qtr) was a flat out bad drop.
Honestly was expecting a big night from Gordon. Juicy match-up against a terrible run defense... wasted opportunity.
matttyl
Footballguy
Just wasn't given enough rushing opportunities due to game script. Was averaging about 5 yards a pop, but when they couldn't convert red zone to TDs early, I knew Rivers would be throwing a lot - so Ekeler would be on the field more later in the game.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This guy held out for a big contract to start the year 
The Frankman
Footballguy
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
For those that thought it was a good idea for Gordon to hold out last season..... how much do you expect him to get on the open market? Guarantees? Are we still using the Gurley, Johnson, Bell, and Freeman contracts as an expected comp?
No chance on the first 3 you mentioned.
I still think he can get something similar as Freeman got in terms of APY. I'm anticipating $8-10M per year-lean something closer to higher side on that, and hard to say on the guarantees but I'm guessing his contract will be structured in such a way as he is almost essentially guaranteed to see first two years of that deal and team easy to move on after two seasons. Which now that think about it I'm almost describing the contract the 49'ers gave McKinnon. I think he can get that kind of deal.
Can't see why anyone would still argue he should have held out but people on these boards still tried to argue Bell did right missing a year so people are going to do what they do. It seems easy to criticize him for not taking the Chargers offer last year because it's hard to see him doing better then the $10M they reportedly offered but I can't even say that without knowing the guarantees or structure.
Long story short I expect him to sign a deal that won't guarantee him $20M but structure of the contract will almost essentially guarantee he sees something in ballpark of that amount over next two seasons.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, we'll see. I just can't see it.
You just keep going down the list. Even after Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Freeman. So how about that next echelon of veteran RB contracts? McKinnon. Lamar Miller. Duke Johnson. Stop me when you see a good contract given to a veteran RB(at least from the perspective of the team that chose to pay him).
The only big RB contract that has "worked out" recently has been Zeke. And in that case DAL made Zeke the highest paid RB in the league, promptly missed the playoffs, and are on the verge of losing some combination of their starting QB, their #1 WR, their #1CB in large part because they are paying the RB position so much money.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I'd say yeah.
Zeke counts $10.9mil against the cap in 2020. In 2021 he counts $13.7mil. And in 2022 he counts for $16.5mil against the cap.
Are you saying that paying a RB that much money isn't a contributing factor to DAL losing either their starting QB and/or their #1 WR and/or their #1 CB?
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I'd actually argue Gurley worked out better than Elliott. The Rams come 1 score away from a SB win.
RB's are so dependent on their supporting casts, that unless they are a huge mismatch in the passing game(like Ekeler) the difference between top runners, and mediocre runners is so small, that it is almost irrelevant. I truly believe if Zeke had sat out the first month of the season, and Pollard had to start, it would have made zero difference at all to the Cowboys record.
If you are giving Dallas credit for how much cap space they have, then you can't count unsigned players, in which case Dallas has a terrible offense, easily the worst in the NFC East. Dallas will be bottom 10 in cap space when/if they bring back Dak and Cooper.
Lawrence is a much better player than Elliott, and plays a far more valuable position. Lawrence is one of the best defense players in the NFL, I'd call him a top-10 edge rusher, arguably top-5. I'd argue Elliott isn't one of the 10 most valuable players on the Cowboys. Dak, Cooper, Tyron, Martin, Frederick, Lawrence, Jaylon, Vander Esch, Jones, and Collins all contribute more to Dallas than Zeke in my opinion.
Side note, sacks are a terrible stat to judge pass rushers by. Its like judging a skill player by TD's. A pass rusher can have a great game, without recording a single sack.
Who were your other 2 examples on Dallas that are worse contracts?
nirad3
Footballguy
It may not make good business sense but regarding the bolded you'll have to stop me when you see teams stop giving out good contracts to RB's or the payscale for them drops.
I would also say that there have some good contracts given to veterans but they were not top of the market deals. Ingram's as an example has kind of been on a bargain on both his second and third contracts. Ekeler we'll see but that looks like a team friendly deal to me but he was a RFA and had less bargaining power.
It's the larger contracts that have not worked out so well but teams are not still giving them out.
So really iit's a question of is Gordon going to get an Ingram/Ekeler type deal or something as I alluded to earlier more in line with at least a McKinnon/Freeman type deal. Because he's younger then Ingram, not a RFA like Ekeler, I would be very surprised if both he and Drake for that matter did not get something that looks like JMC/Freeman. And those deals might have some funny money in the back end but essentially contracts that won't have actual guarantees of $16-20M but will essentially guarantee them that amount over first two years. We'll see in about 12 days.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
They won't be for long if Dak and Cooper are back. I don't consider that bad planning at all. They've got arguably the best OL in the NFL, which is why they didn't need to pay Zeke at all. The only teams I'd argue with better OL's are Philly(when Peters is healthy) and New England(with a healthy Cannon and Andrews) and both those teams have impending FA's who are likely to walk in Peters and Thuney.
Tackles are also a terrible stat. It'd be like ranking a RB by carries. Lawrence is the Cowboys only good DL, he sees constant double teams, and still gets a good share of hurries and pressures, which are both more important than sacks or tackles.
The position they are in wouldn't be so poor if they hadn't signed Zeke, when a replacement level RB likely would have been just fine. A Jordan Howard/Tony Pollard RBBC would likely produce 85% of what Elliott does, for maybe 20% the cost. Also Dallas signed those guys(other than Collins, which I'd agree was a bit much) before they traded for Cooper, which I don't recall anyone expecting to happen before that season started.
Miami's situation isn't really a good comparison. They struck gold when Houston offered 2 1sts and a 2nd for Tunsil. Its not like they just decided they aren't gonna pay him, and took whatever. It was a massive, Godfather-style offer. Those don't come around often. That was Miami taking advantage of a team without a GM, and a HC on the hot seat, with full control. Very stars aligning level circumstances. Also, Miami is/was a bottom dweller doing a full rebuild. Dallas was a team coming off a divisional playoff loss to the eventual Super Bowl runner up, very different agendas, even if they could have traded say La'el Collins for that much, though if that offer had existed they should have, and I think Collins is better than Tunsil.
Tau837
Footballguy
Actually, the bad planning was paying Elliott. Given the strength of their OL, they could get by with a lesser RB without much of an impact on their win probability.
FWIW, PFF gave Pollard a higher grade in 2019 than Elliott. They graded him higher at rushing, receiving, run blocking, and penalties. The only thing Elliott graded higher on was pass blocking. Small sample size for Pollard, and maybe it is fairer to view Elliott as better despite these grades... but the point is there isn't much of a dropoff to Pollard in part due to the strong OL.
Meanwhile, Lawrence was the highest graded defensive player for the Cowboys and was the 15th highest graded edge defender in the league. But go ahead, carry on talking about solo tackles and other stuff that doesn't really mean much when assessing edge defenders.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Per PFF, he had 56 pressures, which was #22 in the league.
The rate at which he was double teamed was one of the highest in the league.
His pass rush win rate was #3 in the league.
Facts... you should try them. Put all of that together, and he had a strong season. Completely opposite what you are representing here.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
How is a hurry or pressure more important than a sack? A sack is a loss of down and loss of yardage. The best case scenario on a pressure is an incomplete pass - I suppose an occasional interception can occur but that’s going to be rare - but good things for the offense can also result despite a hurry/pressure.
And I’m not arguing those things aren’t important or even taking a stance on Lawrence. I’m just not sure what I’m missing on that point.
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Yeah, I don't think I'm going to convince you differently, but I feel compelled to close this out by saying that Z'Darius Smith is irrelevant. Lawrence was already signed(franchised) and it'd been silly for Dallas to try to get Smith and possibly fail, and then alienate Lawrence in the process. Also, I'd argue Lawrence is better than Smith. He has a much longer track record and has far less help around him. Green Bay has a much better secondary than Dallas, at every position, and more help along the D-line, so Smith's job is far easier than that of Lawrence.
I don't think I could disagree more with your last sentence. The talent disparity at RB is easily the smallest of any position, that is the biggest reason why the position has been declining in value. The supply far outweighs the demand. The difference between CMC and say the 20th best RB(which is about where I'd have Melvin Gordon, tying it back to him since its his thread) is probably 1 win at most.
A sack is more important than a hurry or pressure. What I was saying is that a hurry or pressure is more indicative of a players performance than a sack. Sacks are often a function of coverage, or a QB being moved to a spot by another rusher, or just a blocking breakdown. Hurries and pressures can happen that way too, but the sample size is much larger and filters out the more fluky plays. Pressures/hurries are more of a sign of a player beating his man consistently.
For example, a few years back, Vic Beasley lead the NFL in sacks, However if you looked at his pressure/hurry numbers, he wasn't anything special. He had a bunch of sacks where he just happened to be the one to get there after plays broke down, and where he was blocked by a TE or RB. If you looked at that, it was pretty easy to see that he had a fluky season, and that he would come crashing down to earth, although not to the extent he has. Some team will see that big sack number from a few years back and think, "oh yeah, that player is still in there, we can fix him" but the truth is he was never better than maybe a "C+" player, and has been a solid "F" since. If it weren't for that big sack season, Beasley might be XFL bound, and that would be reasonable.
I think defensive play is misjudged a lot of the time, because the stats that are valued highly, are your splashy plays, like sacks and INT's. But a guy can have 2 sacks and an INT, and have been awful that game for all but those 3 plays. On the flip side, a guy can complete everything that is asked of him, but if he doesn't have those splashy plays he's viewed as a JAG. Adrian Amos is a great example of that. He's one of the 5 best Safeties in the NFL, but he's not an INT or sack guy, he's a doesn't screw up ever guy, who bails out teammates constantly. Its no coincidence that the Bears secondary sharply declined when he left, and Green Bay got a ton better by adding him. Eddie Jackson was a turnover machine in 2018, because he had the freedom of knowing Amos would bail him out if he didn't make the play. That was gone in 2019(even though Ha Ha is a good Safety himself, it wasn't the same, or even close) and that existed in Green Bay, which allowed their CB's to play more aggressively, which in turn helped guys like Z'Darius Smith get sacks.
Anyway, I apologize for hijacking the Gordon thread.
Be more cool to each other. If you disagree with a point, make your case why you disagree. Thanks.
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Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
If Gordon lands in Houston or Tampa Bay, he is gold for the next few years.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
I really don't think so. Not as long as BA is coaching the team. I think BA can coach offense and that Gordon gives him a piece that doesn't leave the field.
rockaction
Footballguy
BA is indeed coach, but if they run a dud at QB, there will be eight in the box, and even the geniuses can't coach around that.
And Leftwich has full reins as OC, which was noted last year with gusto by those in the know. BA didn't take credit for play calling a la Belichick and others.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
I am not talking about necessarily winning games. If there are 8 in the box, he can send the RBs into pass patterns like he has most of his career. He is not a dummy. He knows how to coach offense. Don't think for a second Leftwich is not apprenticing with BA
Snorkelson
Footballguy
And has been for awhile. The offense is still predicated on taking shots deep, and as long as their qb can chuck it they won’t have 8 in. Plus you have evans and Godwin out there, go ahead and rush 8 please, you don’t need some genius qb to figure out what to do.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
With Arians' age it's unlikely the Bucs rely on a rookie QB. I think it will either be Rivers, Bridgewater or Winston under center in TB next season.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
This is my hope as a shareholder. Tennessee would be fine if they let Henry go to save some money, but I have no idea what their cap looks like.
True story. Melvin Gordon has been in the league 5 years and only one year has he run for more YPC then Ronald Jones did last year and only one year did he average more yards per catch then Ronald Jones did last year.
I don't think Ronald Jones was the problem last year. Arian's stubborn reliance on Barber was the issue.
Maybe Arians won't come around on Jones but not sure Tampa is as such a great spot if he is slow building up Jones role. I know Arians had said he wants to add a RB and wants one who can do things in the passing game. I just think they want a complement to Jones, not a replacement. I might be wrong but just don't get the feeling a high paid RB is on their priority list.
If Tampa paid Gordon a bunch of money that's a good indicator of a big role so I'd come around but I'm not really seeing it right now as a great spot.
I don't think Ronald Jones was the problem last year. Arian's stubborn reliance on Barber was the issue.
Maybe Arians won't come around on Jones but not sure Tampa is as such a great spot if he is slow building up Jones role. I know Arians had said he wants to add a RB and wants one who can do things in the passing game. I just think they want a complement to Jones, not a replacement. I might be wrong but just don't get the feeling a high paid RB is on their priority list.
If Tampa paid Gordon a bunch of money that's a good indicator of a big role so I'd come around but I'm not really seeing it right now as a great spot.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
As someone who watched every Tampa game, Ronald Jones is still too small for the lead RB spot in the NFL. He was bigger than last year, but he still needs to grow more mass. That is why Barber got the playing time. Someone had to absorb those hits. The good news is Jones is still young and can still grow.
I don't think that changes much though. If they sign Gordon, he will be the bell cow and Jones will be the backup.
I watched every Tampa game as well because I was heavily invested in them and I don't have your same conclusion. Thought Jones had plenty of mass, ran hard and physical inside, but made a few mistakes from time to time and Arians just has no patience with him. I did not see his size impact him in any way.
I think it's just Arians being as stubborn as he was when it took Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington to both get hurt for him to turn to David Johnson. Arians is a great offensive mind but he can stubborn and inflexible and Barber getting that much usage was borderline coaching malpractice.
I would agree however if they sign Gordon he'd be the main guy because you don't give a guy $8-10M to be the backup and I still think Gordon can get that for at least first two years of a deal.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Curious if you are invested in Jones? I have him a few places. I think Jones compares favorably to CJ or Ellington or even more so IMO Miles Sanders. IMHO Neither CJ nor Ellingotn nor Sanders have the lower body to be a lead back in the NFL. At least not for long. Hence why CJ basically survived only one full season intact.
I think Gordon compares to a Jamaal Charles or maybe a faster Lawrence Maroney. But a bigger build than Charles and a different running style than Maroney.
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I own Jones in my two lowest dollar entry fantasy leagues out of 8 leagues I'm in total. If you think my take is based on ownership it's not and never is. I don't own a lot of Tampa players in dynasty, but was loaded up on Evans/Godwin and Winston in redraft last year so watched a lot of Tampa but I also watch most games every week.
CJ? Chris Johnson? CJ2K? We talking about the same guy? He literally did not miss a game until injury until that game I referenced when he was an Arizona Cardinal which was the 11th game of the 8th season of his career. He was not always a full time player but he had 6 1,000 yard plus seasons in that time.
Using CJ as a comp vs Gordon to state a case of sustained durability or production is really just an odd stance to me. Gordon has played 16 games once, granted last year he did not miss time to injuries, and had one 1,000 yard season. I'm not sure I see the correlation to size, performance and durability when using these players as comps.
I don't think Gordon is remotely like Jamaal Charles. He's actually been a pretty mediocre runner most of his career in terms of both ypc and total rushing yardage and that's even if you prorated him out to 16 games and ignored his rookie season. He's been a fantasy stud because if you remove his rookie season when he was not good for fantasy and prorate his production to 16 games to account for all of his missed games he averages 66 catches and 14 TD's. Elite fantasy player at times, not an elite real life NFL RB.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Sure thing and one thing we can agree on we both probably can't wait for this time next week when we actually know were players are landing.
