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RB Mike Davis, BAL (2 Viewers)

chad in Indy said:
Rushing yards favors Gus, but Matt Ryan won't be vulturing touches/GL looks. You've already touched on pass catching. Standard scoring I like Gus better, PPR, prob still take Gus, but much closer to a coin flip.
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I ended up with Gus and Davis today.  Took Gus and Davis made it back to me. Funny how life works sometimes.  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Sure - I’m not arguing that either. 

Backing up, the question about Davis before/after value was a Joe Bryant question. 

My telling people to handcuff him with Gallman (previously Ollison) was my opinion that Davis may not keep the 3-down presumed starter job all year because I’m not of a high opinion of Mike Davis, see last year as an outlier, and saw him fade down the stretch, as others have observed. 

In that light it doesn’t really matter what name the backup is.

It also doesn’t really matter what number Davis is on my draft sheet because I wasn’t going to draft him, regardless. 

cheers
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So why even have him on there at all

 
TVT 0 N S T A said:
I understand what you're trying to get at but if you look at ADP's and what @Hot Sauce Guy is saying you can connect the dots.  He puts them in the same tier as guys going an entire round behind Mike Davis.  He is going in the same range as a guy like Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper.  I dont think anyone is saying Mike Davis is a do not draft, hell... I think everyone has a value but he seems risky at 4.06 when you can grab WR's far more promising in that round.  
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Actually HSG did say that.....

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Situational value is totally a thing, I agree.

if I went TE, WR, WR, QB and Davis was the last player at his tier, even I might take him in that context/situation.

No one is a true DND. 👍🏼

You're correct though in saying I don’t love drafting JAG type players at 5th round ADP. If what gives them value is that they have opportunity, I’d often rather wait for a player who has better skills & less opportunity. Perfect example in my draft last Saturday when I let Davis go by, and selected Javonte Williams at the end of the next round.

IMO a player with better skills will get more opportunity as the season goes on - that’s the bet with Williams. 

My fear with guys like Davis is they may get less opportunity as the season goes on, because they’re not special players.

and if I’m 100% wrong about that & miss on what Joe & some of you feel is a value with Davis, I can live with that. We all value players differently. There are many ways to play this game.  :hifive:
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You literally said a few posts earlier it doesn’t matter what number you had Davis ranked because you “weren’t drafting him regardless” ....now it’s no one is a true DND......?....which is it

 
Stinkin Ref said:
You literally said a few posts earlier it doesn’t matter what number you had Davis ranked because you “weren’t drafting him regardless” ....now it’s no one is a true DND......?....which is it
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I’ve  explained the circumstance in which I’d consider him. You’ve quoted me enough that you should be able to divine that.

I don’t care enough about Mike Davis to entertain this further. Good luck in your drafts. 

 
NFL Week 1 fantasy football questions and answers: 32 reporters give advice on Julio Jones, Ravens running backs, more

Excerpt:

Can Mike Davis repeat his near 5 targets per game from 2020 with Carolina?

Probably not, and there are reasons for that. First would be overall target share -- Davis is likely fourth or fifth in line for targets (and that might be high) -- certainly behind Calvin Ridley and likely Russell Gage and Kyle Pitts, too. Combine that with his expanded role in the run game and the likely usage of Cordarrelle Patterson in passing situations for his receiving skills and five a game might be a bit much. Now, if he ends up as the Vikings' two-minute back in certain situations, that's where he could eclipse it, but don't expect that from week to week. -- Michael Rothstein
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Johnny Utah #9 said:
Anyone see the game today? Looks like he had some chances near the goal line but couldn’t punch it in?
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No.  ATL only got in Eagles territory three times the entire game (that is being generous because one of those three drives only made it to the Eagles 49 yard line).  Of the two times ATL got into goal-to-go plays, ATL called the following. 

    1 - 1st & Goal @ PHI 6 - Mike Davis for 3 yards, followed by two incomplete passes

    2 - 1st & Goal @ PHI 2 - illegal formation, false start, making it 1st/Goal from 12 - followed by incomplete, Patterson rush for 3, incomplete.

It was brutal to watch.  ATL offensive penalties destroyed them and lack of any creativity for RZ play calling is still just as bad as it has been the past several years.

 
I watched a decent amount, Davis was involved early. A little too much Patterson for my liking overall, but game script sort of screwed him in the second half. Really really bad play calling and penalties in the red zone in their limited chances. I remain bullish on him overall. 

 
chad in Indy said:
No.  ATL only got in Eagles territory three times the entire game (that is being generous because one of those three drives only made it to the Eagles 49 yard line).  Of the two times ATL got into goal-to-go plays, ATL called the following. 

    1 - 1st & Goal @ PHI 6 - Mike Davis for 3 yards, followed by two incomplete passes

    2 - 1st & Goal @ PHI 2 - illegal formation, false start, making it 1st/Goal from 12 - followed by incomplete, Patterson rush for 3, incomplete.

It was brutal to watch.  ATL offensive penalties destroyed them and lack of any creativity for RZ play calling is still just as bad as it has been the past several years.
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Interesting to hear about the lack of creative play calling, as the fantasy pundits are infatuated with Arthur Smith. Then again, given how bad the Titans looked yesterday, maybe the guy is a genius after all. 
 

Hopefully this will be a case where the Eagles D was more of a factor than expected. They have tended to be stingy up front in the past. And given the horrific display by the RB position league wide yesterday, hopefully better days are ahead. Of course, that’s not likely to be against TB next week. Have to hope he can get in track starting in week 3.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Yes - "further", as in "the future", and "not the past, when I posted however many times already".

Now that we have the whole time-space continuum handled, I'll leave y'all to your Mike Davis discussion. :thumbup:
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Time to revisit this thread? Or should we wait until the game is over?

 
SoBeDad said:
Time to revisit this thread? Or should we wait until the game is over?
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I’m not a big “I told you so“ guy, but I correctly did predict that the game scripts would negatively impact Mike Davis‘s production.

feeling pretty good about the advice I tried to give everybody.

But that’s OK, I’ve been wrong about other things this year, so it all balances out.

it’s also only game number two. Seems like Patterson is getting quite a bit of carries and receiving out of the backfield as well. There may be better games ahead. With that defense in Atlanta, I don’t see it happening.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I’m not a big “I told you so“ guy, but I correctly did predict that the game scripts would negatively impact Mike Davis‘s production.

feeling pretty good about the advice I tried to give everybody.

But that’s OK, I’ve been wrong about other things this year, so it all balances out.

it’s also only game number two. Seems like Patterson is getting quite a bit of carries and receiving out of the backfield as well. There may be better games ahead. With that defense in Atlanta, I don’t see it happening.
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IIRC, you were beating the Gallman drum pretty hard as the RB to have. 

 
Has Gallman even dressed this year? Atlanta showed some fight until they didn't. As a Davis/Ridley owner, have to feel it gets better. Probably not much.

 
chad in Indy said:
IIRC, you were beating the Gallman drum pretty hard as the RB to have. 
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Sigh.

no. I was beating the “Mike Davis isn’t great & ATL can’t play D, so pick up whomever wins the RB2 job” drum.

it’s all there in my posts, I promise. First it was Ollison, then it was Gallman, and now I would say Patterson, but that’s probably obvious now.

I’ll be wrong about other things & you can call me out there. But I was pretty specific in this topic. lol

 
oddsbodkins said:
Has Gallman even dressed this year? Atlanta showed some fight until they didn't. As a Davis/Ridley owner, have to feel it gets better. Probably not much.
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I’m a Ridley/Pitts owner in the only league I care about winning. I hope they find something in the secondary, because ATL playing balanced offebse  is better for all of their players.

Also throwing 2 pick-6’s in 2 mins is probably best to avoid too. 

 
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Mike Davis rushed nine times for 38 yards in the Falcons' Week 2 loss to the Bucs, adding seven receptions for 25 additional yards. 

Davis found himself in even more of a timeshare with Cordarrelle Patterson than he did in Week 1, barely out-touching and gaining his backfield mate. The Falcons preferred calling Petterson's number at the biggest moments of the game. That is concerning, but Davis has still managed to pile up 34 touches through two contests. That is perhaps a touch under expectation, but still enough to pay the low-end RB2 bills. Davis, of course, needs the committee to not keep tilting further in Patterson's favor. The Giants are on tap for Week 3. 
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Facing the Tampa Bay run D that made the Dallas staff tap out of running with Zeke is probably not a good indicator to judge Mike Davis. Honestly, I'm surprised they didn't go to more of a screen/PA attack.

Also the snap numbers will show Patterson saw a lot more time as a WR than he did Week 1.

 
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The Frankman said:
Honestly, I'm surprised they didn't go to more of a screen/PA attack.
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I’m surprised they ran it at all once they got down 2 scores.

from what I saw on the recap, Davis looked good on some runs but was also stuffed for 1 or 0 a bunch of times. And a bunch of of his yards came when the blowout was on, & TB started to play soft. Same with the 3-4 dump-offs for short yardage. 

how much was Davis, how much was the OL? Probably 75-25 OL’s fault to be fair. I have no idea why they went to Patterson on 4th and 1 needing a conversion. I woulda thought that’s exactly why you bring in a Mile Davis. They were still in that game at that point. Weird usage. 

I believe in my earlier critique of Davis I mentioned he was a “take what the line gives him” kind of back.

and on seeing how ATL’s line is playing, I’m no longer convinced that any RB in ATL will he consistently good in FF this year, so that was my misread. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I’m surprised they ran it at all once they got down 2 scores.

from what I saw on the recap, Davis looked good on some runs but was also stuffed for 1 or 0 a bunch of times. And a bunch of of his yards came when the blowout was on, & TB started to play soft. Same with the 3-4 dump-offs for short yardage. 

how much was Davis, how much was the OL? Probably 75-25 OL’s fault to be fair. I have no idea why they went to Patterson on 4th and 1 needing a conversion. I woulda thought that’s exactly why you bring in a Mile Davis. They were still in that game at that point. Weird usage. 

I believe in my earlier critique of Davis I mentioned he was a “take what the line gives him” kind of back.

and on seeing how ATL’s line is playing, I’m no longer convinced that any RB in ATL will he consistently good in FF this year, so that was my misread. 
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You don't run on this Tampa Bay D unless you're setting up a PA or going to a big formation. 4th and 1? Well Patterson is a bigger body, I can understand using him over Davis... which is why as a Davis owner I was worried he'd lose the goalline back job to Patterson; you love the volume Davis can give but in order to reach his ceiling he needs goal line reps.

https://twitter.com/PFF_NateJahnke/status/1439738020324909056
 

Nathan Jahnke @PFF_NateJahnke

Falcons HB snap count #ATLvsTB

Mike Davis 42

Cordarrelle Patterson 23

Out of 63 plays
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Let me see Davis (or any ATL RB) in a more positive script. The beauty is even in catchup mode, ATL RBs can still profit out of backfield/2 minute drill receptions.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I’m not a big “I told you so“ guy, but I correctly did predict that the game scripts would negatively impact Mike Davis‘s production.

feeling pretty good about the advice I tried to give everybody.

But that’s OK, I’ve been wrong about other things this year, so it all balances out.

it’s also only game number two. Seems like Patterson is getting quite a bit of carries and receiving out of the backfield as well. There may be better games ahead. With that defense in Atlanta, I don’t see it happening.
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This is funny

 
MIKE DAVIS RB, ATLANTA FALCONS

AtlantaFalcons.com's Scott Bair said the Falcons' backfield could be a "60-40 split" for the rest of the season. 

Bair suggested head coach Arthur Smith could deploy a "hot hand" approach with Davis and Patterson after Patterson -- a wideout by trade -- has proven more effective than Davis as a rusher through two games. Davis leads Atlanta with a 31 percent opportunity share (targets plus rushing attempts) while Patterson is second with 19 percent. Those rates could even out in the coming weeks if Patterson continues to impress. He'll be a reasonable flex option in 12-team leagues this week against the Giants. 

RELATED: 

Cordarrelle Patterson

SOURCE: AtlantaFalcons.com 

Sep 24, 2021, 12:17 PM ET
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Mike Davis rushed 12 times for 50 yards in the Falcons' Week 2 win over the Giants, adding four receptions for 20 additional yards.

Davis led Cordarrelle Patterson 37 to 24 in snaps, but came away with 32 fewer yards. Davis remains the lead running back in Atlanta, but he is ceding valuable opportunity to Patterson in an offense without a surplus of fantasy value. Davis will be a FLEX option in Week 4 against Washington.
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He got nicked up and missed half a series, and ironically that series is where Patterson did most of his damage.

 
Mike Davis had 13 rushes for 14 yards in the Falcons' Week 4 loss to the Football Team, adding two catches for 12 yards and a touchdown.  

Davis was typically ineffective while leading Atlanta in rushing attempts, saving his fantasy day with a short receiving score. Cordarrelle Patterson, meanwhile, exploded for three touchdowns on six receptions against a middling Football Team secondary. Patterson's pass-game involvement makes him a much better weekly fantasy option than Davis. Davis' saving grace could be goal line work if the Falcons are ever in position to operate a balanced offense. He'll be a low-ceiling RB2/3 play in Week 5 against the Jets.
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Mike Davis rushed 13 times for 53 yards and a touchdown in Week 5 against the Jets.

Davis was outplayed by Cordarrelle Patterson, who led the backfield with 21 touches, but salvaged his day with a fourth-quarter goal-line TD. The yards were a season-high for Davis, who had been held under 50 yards in every game. Davis has been losing valuable snaps to Patterson and could continue to see his role decline going forward. He'll be a touchdown-dependent RB3 when the Falcons return from their Week 6 bye.

Oct 10, 2021, 1:22 PM ET
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Mike Davis rushed nine times for 13 yards in the Falcons' Week 9 win over the Saints, adding a five-yard reception. 

Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson were equally ineffective on the ground, but C-Patt blew Davis away through the air, going 6/126 on only six targets. Even with Calvin Ridley sidelined and the Falcons' skill corps depleted, neither Davis' role nor workload are making for any sort of fantasy upside. You can do better for Week 10 against the Cowboys. 

- NBC SportsEDGE
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Thoughts on Mike Davis w/Patterson out?  Debating him or  R.Stevenson with Bolden/Harris active.  Basically 1 slice of deep dish vs 2/3 of a personal pan pizza, ugh.

 
Ardbeg4ever said:
Thoughts on Mike Davis w/Patterson out?  Debating him or  R.Stevenson with Bolden/Harris active.  Basically 1 slice of deep dish vs 2/3 of a personal pan pizza, ugh.
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I’m in the exact same situation and leaning Davis with absolutely no confidence whatsoever. I’ll probably change my mind 30 times. He’s not as good as Stevenson and his team is worse but I feel more confident in the volume and the possibility he’ll fall into the endzone if nothing else.

 
Davis has never been special.. what made him decent last year was his opportunity.

Patterson took that from him this year.  Tonight I think we see the volume.  A good floor imo.

 
Ardbeg4ever said:
Thoughts on Mike Davis w/Patterson out?  Debating him or  R.Stevenson with Bolden/Harris active.  Basically 1 slice of deep dish vs 2/3 of a personal pan pizza, ugh.
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Looks like Davis is the single slice of personal pan pizza, went w/Stevenson which isn't much better though.

 
Went with him given Patterson was out and the large quantity of questionable/out/bye issues I have, thankfully PPR drags things up from dumpster fire to awful. 25 man dynasty, likely cutting in a couple of weeks for some lottery ticket

 
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