Ilov80s
Footballguy
Real good for fantasy though
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RB Omarion Hampton, LAC (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Yeah one thing Arthur Smith commits to early and often is the run. I just know to get Hampton they'll have to take him in the first; and I think we are way too far off from SB contender to be taking a RB in round 1. But they are definitely a trendy place to mock a back to. See a lot of Skattebo and Martinez mocked there as well.
If Najee can plod to steady RB2 work there, I'd imagine that'd be Hamptons floor.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
I am hoping he is there for Denver. We have a glaring hole at that position right now.
Faust
MVP
A big range of viewpoints on Hampton:
NFL Draft Files
Omarion Hampton posted an incredible 9.93 RAS with a 4.47 40 at 6’0, 221lbs
But how’s the tape? Well…
contact balance
Day 1 plug-and-play starter.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
A big range of viewpoints on Hampton:
NFL Draft Files
Omarion Hampton posted an incredible 9.93 RAS with a 4.47 40 at 6’0, 221lbs
But how’s the tape? Well…
Day 1 plug-and-play starter.
Serious question; is Jeff Mueller a scout or a doctor? Or both? I know he works with 4 for 4 and have read his training room articles during the season to catch up on medical issues and injury time lines; I think they are good and helpful. But as far as scouting rookies, is there any reason to give him any more credence than any of us here posting on the message boards?
I don't necessarily disagree with a 2nd round grade on Hampton instead of a 1st; but half of his negatives list aren't really negatives, and not only have I not seen many JT/Breece comps for him, but I brought up yesterday in another thread, Chubb was not a glowing universally praised elite prospect coming from college. In fact Hamptons combine measurables beat out all of Chubbs with the exception of the shuttle time and bench. Regardless I see more Rhamondre comps for Hampton than anything, not Breece Hall and JT.
edit: as with just about any reply I make on an a Faust post, this is not a question directed to him, but really the board in general. Love your work and effort posting content daily and keeping these threads churning with info 24/7.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Why so?
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Short answer; fan bias. I think based on current projections if Steelers want Hampton they need to take him in the first. Or at the very least, they'd need to trade up from where they sit currently in the 2nd round. And I don't think that's what they should be doing at all. IMO we are not one RB away from being a SB contender. So as a fan, I don't want them even contemplating RB till round 3 earliest, I'd prefer round 4 or later considering the depth of this class at that position.
From a fantasy perspective, I guess it's not the worst. But (and this is colored by my bias as well) I also don't think Steelers are really that good of landing spot either outside of the obvious glut of opportunity. I think Warren will still be stealing more of the receiving work than other landing spots. They don't currently have a QB who will threaten a defense and make Hampton's job any easier if he lands there. And really I don't think this will drastically improve either. I think our current "best case" scenario there to immediate improvement is Aaron Rodgers and that path comes with it's own plethora of red flags. And our line isn't the worst, but is also far from the best, with run blocking.
I see the Steelers as a great landing spot for a day 3 back to produce more than he potentially would have because comparative opportunities. IMO Hampton is already going to be a lead back no matter what team he lands on, so opportunity will be there for him regardless of the team that takes him. At that point, I'll look past opportunity to those other factors that could raise his ceiling year 1 and see a lot better places he could go. And circling back, if Hampton does go there, that's one less good landing spot for a day 3 back who really needs a team that has a need at the position and could give them an earlier opportunity to win a role.
Top of my head; Eagles, Falcons, Dolphins, Colts, Lions, and Jets are definitely worse landing spots than the Steelers for a guy projected to be a top 3 drafted RB. Then I think we already get into the "it's debatable range".
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah it's a bit of a strawman argument on his part. I don't think there are too many making those comps. Also, and this is important - It isn't a dealbreaker to say a prospect isn't on the level of those guys (as a prospect). IDK maybe it's enough to differentiate on paper between what is or isn't a 1st vs 2nd rounder but I don't think that gives credit to how important need might be for NFL teams as well as the almost random luck factor of how drafts unfold. Seriously if he is there at 20 and Denver is OTC I don't know that they would say no just because he isn't quite the same as what they saw in Jonathan Taylor or Hall. I think the only thing that would stop them is if there is someone at a different position that they simply have higher. (which is very likely)not only have I not seen many JT/Breece comps for him, but I brought up yesterday in another thread, Chubb was not a glowing universally praised elite prospect coming from college.A big range of viewpoints on Hampton:
NFL Draft Files
Omarion Hampton posted an incredible 9.93 RAS with a 4.47 40 at 6’0, 221lbs
But how’s the tape? Well…
Day 1 plug-and-play starter.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
100% couldn't agree more. End of the day, everyone also comps a bit different. Some focus more on measurables and build for player comps. Others look more at play style and usage potential. Rarely if ever are comps really 1 to 1. Plus from a real life football perspective, and a thing I think we don't always consider enough from a fantasy one, is these teams also strongly consider how much they can develop these rookies. A NFL player comp isn't just where a rookie currently is at, but what he's projected of potentially growing into as well. Good example is pass pro. It's almost always a ding for these guys coming in, and regardless of how good they are in other areas of their game, if they are a liability in pass pro their best case scenario turns into a 2 down split share back real quick.Yeah it's a bit of a strawman argument on his part. I don't think there are too many making those comps. Also, and this is important - It isn't a dealbreaker to say a prospect isn't on the level of those guys (as a prospect). IDK maybe it's enough to differentiate on paper between what is or isn't a 1st vs 2nd rounder but I don't think that gives credit to how important need might be for NFL teams as well as the almost random luck factor of how drafts unfold. Seriously if he is there at 20 and Denver is OTC I don't know that they would say no just because he isn't quite the same as what they saw in Jonathan Taylor or Hall. I think the only thing that would stop them is if there is someone at a different position that they simply have higher. (which is very likely)not only have I not seen many JT/Breece comps for him, but I brought up yesterday in another thread, Chubb was not a glowing universally praised elite prospect coming from college.A big range of viewpoints on Hampton:
NFL Draft Files
Omarion Hampton posted an incredible 9.93 RAS with a 4.47 40 at 6’0, 221lbs
But how’s the tape? Well…
Day 1 plug-and-play starter.
I mean some ESPN talking head was comparing Cam Ward to Pat Mahomes lol. To his credit, he obviously clarified he was comping them as prospects, not trying to say Ward will ever become what Mahomes is. I guess just that stylistically they would fall in the same spectrum in his opinion.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
good post (not because you agreed with me). Yeah I can't scream loud enough how these guys are works in progress and the analyses we perform and/or read about are based on snapshots in time of these kids' profiles and too often presume some sort of finished product. We don't have anything else to go on except what has happened up until the present, so what else are we going to do, but IMHO the wisdom of the crowd suffers this kind of bias badly. I feel like it's one of the most significant exploitable weaknesses of my FF opponents. The unwillingness to envision improvement in players and to be stuck with old takes.100% couldn't agree more. End of the day, everyone also comps a bit different. Some focus more on measurables and build for player comps. Others look more at play style and usage potential. Rarely if ever are comps really 1 to 1. Plus from a real life football perspective, and a thing I think we don't always consider enough from a fantasy one, is these teams also strongly consider how much they can develop these rookies. A NFL player comp isn't just where a rookie currently is at, but what he's projected of potentially growing into as well. Good example is pass pro. It's almost always a ding for these guys coming in, and regardless of how good they are in other areas of their game, if they are a liability in pass pro their best case scenario turns into a 2 down split share back real quick.Yeah it's a bit of a strawman argument on his part. I don't think there are too many making those comps. Also, and this is important - It isn't a dealbreaker to say a prospect isn't on the level of those guys (as a prospect). IDK maybe it's enough to differentiate on paper between what is or isn't a 1st vs 2nd rounder but I don't think that gives credit to how important need might be for NFL teams as well as the almost random luck factor of how drafts unfold. Seriously if he is there at 20 and Denver is OTC I don't know that they would say no just because he isn't quite the same as what they saw in Jonathan Taylor or Hall. I think the only thing that would stop them is if there is someone at a different position that they simply have higher. (which is very likely)not only have I not seen many JT/Breece comps for him, but I brought up yesterday in another thread, Chubb was not a glowing universally praised elite prospect coming from college.A big range of viewpoints on Hampton:
NFL Draft Files
Omarion Hampton posted an incredible 9.93 RAS with a 4.47 40 at 6’0, 221lbs
But how’s the tape? Well…
Day 1 plug-and-play starter.
I mean some ESPN talking head was comparing Cam Ward to Pat Mahomes lol. To his credit, he obviously clarified he was comping them as prospects, not trying to say Ward will ever become what Mahomes is. I guess just that stylistically they would fall in the same spectrum in his opinion.
there are a gazillion examples but Nico Collins comes to mind. I couldn't get a 4th round rookie pick for him two years ago. Now he is going in 2nd or 3rd round of startups. He was one of my hardest cuts two years ago (after the 2022 season) and people were like why? I'm like because he flashed and improved. But the snapshot in time of data said he hadn't done ****. just one example but anyway.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Yup, most of my biggest wins in waivers and trades have been capitalizing on the dynamics you're describing. Getting Diggs pennies on the dollar in 2017 while he was still an underutilized Viking, and paying a decently large sum of FAAB on Aaron Jones in 2018 when his owner dropped him a couple weeks into his second season helped me basically turn a perennial losing orphan team I took over into a playoff team the next 5 years (obviously I hit on some draft picks too haha).good post (not because you agreed with me). Yeah I can't scream loud enough how these guys are works in progress and the analyses we perform and/or read about are based on snapshots in time of these kids' profiles and too often presume some sort of finished product. We don't have anything else to go on except what has happened up until the present, so what else are we going to do, but IMHO the wisdom of the crowd suffers this kind of bias badly. I feel like it's one of the most significant exploitable weaknesses of my FF opponents. The unwillingness to envision improvement in players and to be stuck with old takes.100% couldn't agree more. End of the day, everyone also comps a bit different. Some focus more on measurables and build for player comps. Others look more at play style and usage potential. Rarely if ever are comps really 1 to 1. Plus from a real life football perspective, and a thing I think we don't always consider enough from a fantasy one, is these teams also strongly consider how much they can develop these rookies. A NFL player comp isn't just where a rookie currently is at, but what he's projected of potentially growing into as well. Good example is pass pro. It's almost always a ding for these guys coming in, and regardless of how good they are in other areas of their game, if they are a liability in pass pro their best case scenario turns into a 2 down split share back real quick.Yeah it's a bit of a strawman argument on his part. I don't think there are too many making those comps. Also, and this is important - It isn't a dealbreaker to say a prospect isn't on the level of those guys (as a prospect). IDK maybe it's enough to differentiate on paper between what is or isn't a 1st vs 2nd rounder but I don't think that gives credit to how important need might be for NFL teams as well as the almost random luck factor of how drafts unfold. Seriously if he is there at 20 and Denver is OTC I don't know that they would say no just because he isn't quite the same as what they saw in Jonathan Taylor or Hall. I think the only thing that would stop them is if there is someone at a different position that they simply have higher. (which is very likely)not only have I not seen many JT/Breece comps for him, but I brought up yesterday in another thread, Chubb was not a glowing universally praised elite prospect coming from college.A big range of viewpoints on Hampton:
NFL Draft Files
Omarion Hampton posted an incredible 9.93 RAS with a 4.47 40 at 6’0, 221lbs
But how’s the tape? Well…
Day 1 plug-and-play starter.
I mean some ESPN talking head was comparing Cam Ward to Pat Mahomes lol. To his credit, he obviously clarified he was comping them as prospects, not trying to say Ward will ever become what Mahomes is. I guess just that stylistically they would fall in the same spectrum in his opinion.
there are a gazillion examples but Nico Collins comes to mind. I couldn't get a 4th round rookie pick for him two years ago. Now he is going in 2nd or 3rd round of startups. He was one of my hardest cuts two years ago (after the 2022 season) and people were like why? I'm like because he flashed and improved. But the snapshot in time of data said he hadn't done ****. just one example but anyway.
With us being spoiled the past couple years with quite a few rookies blowing up immediately, I think there will be a decent number of these opportunities coming up again. I could be wrong (but the cost is low so wtf not?) but I've been trying to scoop up Olave, Jayden Reed, and Josh Downs shares where I can, even paying a little over market price to get it done. I think the talent with all three is there, and backed up by advanced metrics. They just need the things around them to improve a bit to take significant jumps in production. Again, at the cost of a mid round pick plus an aging vet I'll gladly take the gamble.
Ok sorry for derailing the Hampton thread. Back to your regular scheduled programming.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks.
I totally get where you are coming from as far as team building.
How's the Steelers offensive line? I imagine the team would benefit more from just about any other position.
They did use a 1st round pick on Harris though.
I also agree with your point about the depth at the RB position in this draft being a reason to pass.
When I initially read yor post I thought maybe you didn't like the player.
Some do some don't.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think this guy is a better RB than Harris was as a prospect FWIW.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I like him better than Harris; but part of me also worries Harris isn't quite as bad as the Steelers made him look. I don't think it's a super high likelihood of happening, but I'm already having James Conner flashbacks of us moving on from a back we tagged as mediocre, watching them go to a much better situation, and then thriving as a top 12 back for multiple seasons haha.
As for our line, I'm a firm believer in the strong as the weakest line and rapport building side of things. Don't need a superstar at every spot, but can't have a glaring weakness either. I think they could take a step forward this season if they stay healthy, but some rotational depth would help as well as injuries made us worse than expected last year. Still, even taking a step forward would leave us at or below league average.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If I recall correctly when they drafted Harris that Tomlin made comments about the talent of a RB elevating the offensive line play as part of the reasoning for the selection.
At the time they could have used upgrades to the offensive line which was also part of that conversation about the pick.
Now I haven't been keeping up with the Steelers moves at offensive line since then, I'm guessing they improved some? But maybe this is a similar scenario.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I'd say they are pretty much in the same spot. Whatever ground the line may have gained after drafting Najee, I'd say they already lost and then some. PFF has them in the bottom third of the league in rush grades and bottom quarter of the league in passing grades the past couple seasons.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I appreciate you sharing your perspective about that.
Some of the criticism I've heard about Hampton is that he is inconsistent reading blocks. In particular on plays where the line is pulling, I've heard he doesn't always have a good feel for these plays.
This was of particular interest to me as if what I've heard is true, Hampton is good on zone blocking plays and at times great on man blocking plays, but in man blocking he is inconsistent.
I have been looking for an example of a guy being good at zone but not man. Maybe Hampton is one.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Kaleb Johnson probably fits that example the best of any popular back in this class IMO; but only really watching him in one college offense that stayed relatively the same through his college years it's hard to say definitively. Kinda like dinging a guy who didn't get receiving work in college; we don't really know they can't catch, just have an absence of proof they can.
So Kaleb could be ok in a man scheme; I just know he crushed the outside zone at Iowa so I'd definitely prefer he lands somewhere that runs that scheme. I'm more open on Hampton's fit, which I guess could be looked at as a good thing (less landing spot dependent) or a bad thing (doesn't truly excel at either).
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
As long as Kimani Vidal is still the 1C.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Could any pick possibly happen today to challenge Hampton for #2?
Terpman22
Footballguy
Henderson to Denver is the only thing that could come close IMO
barackdhouse
Footballguy
not really, Henderson to Denver or Dallas is about the only thing that comes close, maybe the Bears but no.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Yes, and I think there's a valid argument Hampton is not #2 right now anyway.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Who's above him?
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'm not getting him because of how the market values him, so I'm not interested in expending much energy on the subject, but as I wrote in the other thread, tiers > rankings. And format matters. I have him in the same tier as some I expect to be available at pick 8 in a TE premium Super Flex. If tonight doesn't break right, I'll adjust, but as is imma planning to just sit back, relax, and wait to see what falls.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
IMO this kid is a beast....and as a KC fan when DEN passed on him I 
......only to see LAC snag him...
......only to see LAC snag him...Henderson and maybe Judkins probably ends up in a good spot tonight but can't ignore that a guy that went in the 1st vs the 2nd IMO.
Maybe-
Henderson or Judkins to Dallas/Denver opens a conversation. Najee far superior competition to the current RB chaff on the Broncos and Cowboys.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Hampton is a nice RB prospect, but I don't view him as a 1st-rounder. I think there's a big group of classic day-2 RBs in this class and they're all close. I imagine draft boards are all over the place depending on team fit.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Tre to DEN...Buck to Bronc
LFG!!!
LFG!!!
barackdhouse
Footballguy
as much as I've talked up how much I love the landing spot for Hampton and that Najee isn't much of a barrier IMO, I do agree the Broncos and Cowboys and arguably the Bears are more wide open. Draft capital matters a lot though so it needs to be pretty early tonight I should think. One trump card is if a team decides to move up. I consider that a big deal and an endorsement of how the team views the back contributing right away. If it's early to mid 2nd. After that I still like many many spots and many backs but nothing that would challenge Hampton for 1.02. Not even sure I'd want Ward over him in SuperFlex.
Yeah Najee is probably better than any Den, Dal, or Chi RB but the rd 1 draft capital and Harbaugh/Roman style probably keeps Hampton at 1.2 regardless but man a RB in the next 10 picks to 1 of those 3 spots I dunno
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah Henderson to Denver might do it. They pick at 51 though and I'm not sure he'll last past Chicago twice, Dallas or even a dark horse like Cleveland twice or Tennessee. But they can probably also just stay put and let another solid back fall to them.
Calling my shot I think Cleveland wants a back but is happy to keep falling back and will trade pick 33 or 36 right off the bat to Denver or Dallas. I don't think Chicago needs it that badly. And I do think Henderson is in a remaining tier of RBs by himself so he *might* be considered a prize right now. I don't think Judkins or Skattebo or Johnson are going until round 3 or 4. If there is a surprise tonight it will be Harvey, Sampson, Brooks or maybe Tuten. I think that after Henderson teams will be happy to let backs fall to them.
I'll grant you Denver but I think they are picking too late for Treyveon. Bears I'd argue Swift is a bigger threat than Najee by a lot and Ben loves RBBC. Dallas probably, loved Javonte coming out but injuries ruined him. I'd be scared the Browns go RB with one of these 2 picks but we'll see
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ben was the OC when they sent Swift packing for a song. I would not be worried at all about him.
Yes, the OC. Not the GM or the head coach who constantly bad mouthed Swift as weak. Swifts not much of an obstacle but definitely more than Najee IMO. Edit: for year 1 since we are comparing spots to Hamptons
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure but I am guessing Ben was not a big fan either of Swift. I don't think anyone liked him. The RB coach made it clear on Hard Knocks that he was annoyed by Swift.
