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RB Quinshon Judkins, CLE (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
The Kerminator
Footballguy
Not bad for a 1st game with no training camp
The Frankman
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure looked better than the Steelers, Broncos and Patriots rookie RBs
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Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Well, that’s because he is, and always was better than them.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I like the way you think Barboni
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
The Q J takeover in Cleveland has officially begun, I would expect a large part of the carries to funnel thru Judkins
In the coming weeks he could rise to a weekly Top 10-15 play vs almost anyone
In the coming weeks he could rise to a weekly Top 10-15 play vs almost anyone
The Kerminator
Footballguy
All that's left to worry about is a suspension
Rig24
Footballguy
georg013
Footballguy
Hate to do this, but if you take away his big run and all of the other runs above 4.0 yards, what are we really left with?6.1 YPC at Ravens
ho hum
Answer: Sampson and Ford
Hate to do this, but if you take away his big run and all of the other runs above 4.0 yards, what are we really left with?6.1 YPC at Ravens
ho hum
Answer: Sampson and Ford
Often FF managers do this. Take away the big run and spin a different narrative, downgrading production.
Saw this alot from last week when Etienne had the 71 yard run, and folks tried to take that away. But in week2 he produced RB2 return.
Point is, don't take away the long gains. The player DID THAT. They made the play. Statistically, it's forever documented under their name correctly embedded in the YPC.
Judkins gave the Browns their longest run of the year. He is far and beyond a much better pure runner than Sampson and Ford.
Don't try to change the narrative. And he produced after only two practice days. He is their starter.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Hate to do this, but if you take away his big run and all of the other runs above 4.0 yards, what are we really left with?6.1 YPC at Ravens
ho hum
Answer: Sampson and Ford
If asking for help, look up Barry Sanders. That should break you of this.
the moops
Footballguy
I hope this is sarcasm?Hate to do this, but if you take away his big run and all of the other runs above 4.0 yards, what are we really left with?6.1 YPC at Ravens
ho hum
Answer: Sampson and Ford
If you take away anyone's big runs, and every run above 4 yards, of course you are left with ****
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Hate to do this, but if you take away his big run and all of the other runs above 4.0 yards, what are we really left with?6.1 YPC at Ravens
ho hum
Answer: Sampson and Ford
*insert joke flying over people's heads gif*
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He was definitely joking, but while I like Judkins I do think it's probably worth mentioning when that big run came in garbage time against backups playing essentially prevent to just run out the clock.
Overall though, has the pedigree, the competition on the squad is weak, he should be the guy going forward.
Overall though, has the pedigree, the competition on the squad is weak, he should be the guy going forward.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
I'd be interested to know when his snaps and carries came. Was he sprinkled evenly throughout the game or was it all fourth quarter? It made sense to give him extra work at the end since he needs the practice. But if he was involved throughout the game too that is a good sign.
Proteus
Footballguy
And if he's good to go with a report of increased usage, will you post a GIDDY UP or shall I?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
As good as the Packers look right the Browns should just petition the league for an extra bye week.
He was sprinkled in throughout the game. Not a case of just giving him work when the game got out of hand.
My only holdup, other then suspension, in not thinking he's a week or two away from being at least a rock solid RB2 for ROS is how much are they going to continue with this infuriating 3 man RBBC once he gets up to speed?
My thinking on what's going to happen here is Fords going to end up getting traded, kind of a lot of teams that could really use him and that likely grows each week, but first Browns need to know Judkin's suspension length and likely hold onto Ford until he's served it.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Let's just say I already have him in my lineup and really hope news doesn't cause me to go the other way, so I'll go with a lower case 'giddy up' for now.
electric Ape
Footballguy
Relative Yards Per Carry on the 2025 Cleveland Browns:Interesting article I might have posted but definitely deserves a read. I'd urge a read.
Quinshon Judkins – positive 2.2
Jerome Ford – negative 0.6
Dylan Sampson – negative 1.7
I’m being wildly unfair in applying a longer-term metric to a 2 game sample but it is kinda funny to see the red flag, do-not-draft RYPC ugly duckling Quinshon Judkins (who the author of the article actually advises fantasy owners to trade) starting his career with a god-like RYPC.
If you want a less unfair critique of this flawed metric look at, for example, Marcus Allen in 1985 when he shared the backfield with replacement level competition vs Marcus Allen in 1987 when he played with Bo Jackson. The metric says 1985 Marcus Allen was hall of fame and 1987 Marcus Allen was the worst player in the NFL when, silly me, I see the exact same player both seasons…
Relative to his ADP, Judkins situation is becoming more interesting than some of the other rookie backs who received tons of hype.
Henderson (KO return TD in preseason OMG!), Kaleb, Harvey are all losing snaps. All three were drafted upper rounds.
Blue has been inactive.
Still expect Jeanty + Hampton to lead this rookie class.
But Judkins, Tuten, Skattebo, JCM stocks are rising.
As for week3, we know Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins are the starters. That's it.
What rollercoaster ride this has been.
Henderson (KO return TD in preseason OMG!), Kaleb, Harvey are all losing snaps. All three were drafted upper rounds.
Blue has been inactive.
Still expect Jeanty + Hampton to lead this rookie class.
But Judkins, Tuten, Skattebo, JCM stocks are rising.
As for week3, we know Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins are the starters. That's it.
What rollercoaster ride this has been.
rockaction
Footballguy
Relative Yards Per Carry on the 2025 Cleveland Browns:Interesting article I might have posted but definitely deserves a read. I'd urge a read.
Quinshon Judkins – positive 2.2
Jerome Ford – negative 0.6
Dylan Sampson – negative 1.7
I’m being wildly unfair in applying a longer-term metric to a 2 game sample but it is kinda funny to see the red flag, do-not-draft RYPC ugly duckling Quinshon Judkins (who the author of the article actually advises fantasy owners to trade) starting his career with a god-like RYPC.
If you want a less unfair critique of this flawed metric look at, for example, Marcus Allen in 1985 when he shared the backfield with replacement level competition vs Marcus Allen in 1987 when he played with Bo Jackson. The metric says 1985 Marcus Allen was hall of fame and 1987 Marcus Allen was the worst player in the NFL when, silly me, I see the exact same player both seasons…
Fair enough. You will note the three or so disclaimers I put on it, right? See, I think you might think I'm not being careful about this stuff. I explicitly say it's another data point to consider and it's actually beyond my quant skills.
I'm also pretty sure you're incorrect. It's the games they've shared a backfield, which means that you take Judkins total yards and divide by his carries and you take Ford's and Sampson's total yards and divide it by theirs.
So you have 61 divided by 10 and then you have 37 divided by 10. So it's 6.1 - 3.7 for Judkins = 2.4
Then you do Ford, who rushed for 31 yards on 6 carries, giving him 5.17 -3.7 for Ford = 1.47
Then you have Sampson, who has been a rushing disaster both games. He is at 1.5 - 3.7 = - 2.2
So that's more like it. But I'm not really sure what it proves and that you're breezing through looking to correct or poke holes in something and you're not getting the formula right and that you're not really able to make a point because the RelYPC is used in conjunction with a proprietary model to ascertain a player's VORP (value over replacement player).
I'm not even sure you read his conclusion. What he concludes isn't that Judkins won't succeed. He concludes this
"My model (which admittedly has a couple more minor variables but doesn’t include NFL situation) puts Judkins in the same tier as Harvey and Skattebo with an expectation of around 250 career VORP. The model projects Jeanty around 1000 career VORP while Hampton and Henderson are just over and under 500 VORP, respectively. With Judkins seemingly avoiding charges, now might be a good time to trade him."
He never says don't draft Judkins, nor did I ever say that. Nor did I even come close to saying to accept this guy's findings. It's another data point to consider. I think you've misunderstood the premise, the calculation, and then didn't read the conclusion.
electric Ape
Footballguy
First off I hope a more productive football and analytics discussion can happen here. In another thread the discussion sometimes departed away from those topics and I don’t think that’s good for anyone.Relative Yards Per Carry on the 2025 Cleveland Browns:Interesting article I might have posted but definitely deserves a read. I'd urge a read.
Quinshon Judkins – positive 2.2
Jerome Ford – negative 0.6
Dylan Sampson – negative 1.7
I’m being wildly unfair in applying a longer-term metric to a 2 game sample but it is kinda funny to see the red flag, do-not-draft RYPC ugly duckling Quinshon Judkins (who the author of the article actually advises fantasy owners to trade) starting his career with a god-like RYPC.
If you want a less unfair critique of this flawed metric look at, for example, Marcus Allen in 1985 when he shared the backfield with replacement level competition vs Marcus Allen in 1987 when he played with Bo Jackson. The metric says 1985 Marcus Allen was hall of fame and 1987 Marcus Allen was the worst player in the NFL when, silly me, I see the exact same player both seasons…
Fair enough. You will note the three or so disclaimers I put on it, right? See, I think you might think I'm not being careful about this stuff. I explicitly say it's another data point to consider and it's actually beyond my quant skills.
I'm also pretty sure you're incorrect. It's the games they've shared a backfield, which means that you take Judkins total yards and divide by his carries and you take Ford's and Sampson's total yards and divide it by theirs.
So you have 61 divided by 10 and then you have 37 divided by 10. So it's 6.1 - 3.7 for Judkins = 2.4
Then you do Ford, who rushed for 31 yards on 6 carries, giving him 5.17 -3.7 for Ford = 1.47
Then you have Sampson, who has been a rushing disaster both games. He is at 1.5 - 3.7 = - 2.2
So that's more like it. But I'm not really sure what it proves and that you're breezing through looking to correct or poke holes in something and you're not getting the formula right and that you're not really able to make a point because the RelYPC is used in conjunction with a proprietary model to ascertain a player's VORP (value over replacement player).
I'm not even sure you read his conclusion. What he concludes isn't that Judkins won't succeed. He concludes this
"My model (which admittedly has a couple more minor variables but doesn’t include NFL situation) puts Judkins in the same tier as Harvey and Skattebo with an expectation of around 250 career VORP. The model projects Jeanty around 1000 career VORP while Hampton and Henderson are just over and under 500 VORP, respectively. With Judkins seemingly avoiding charges, now might be a good time to trade him."
He never says don't draft Judkins, nor did I ever say that. Nor did I even come close to saying to accept this guy's findings. It's another data point to consider. I think you've misunderstood the premise, the calculation, and then didn't read the conclusion.
Also let me state as clearly and directly as I can that I am not criticizing you in any way. I read all of the linked article, I understand the linked article, and I have disagreements with the linked article. You only posted it as a data point for others to consider so in no way do I extend those criticisms to you and I would hope that you wouldn’t feel adversarial about that.
At the end of the article the author writes, “With Quinshon seemingly avoiding charges, now might be a good time to try and trade him.” All I said was that the author advises people to trade Judkins, I don’t think that should be an especially controversial interpretation?
When I ran RYPC for the Browns I quickly took each back’s aggregate YPC for the full season because I thought it was funny that college football’s RYPC ugly duckling had suddenly become a swan over this tiny sample. You ran the numbers for only the game where all 3 shared the field and yes your way is more accurate. I don’t think you’d disagree though that the small difference in process changes the story very little since Ford and Sampson were about equally bad in both games.
I think the RYPC model is well-intended as it recognizes the severe context issues present in traditional YPC. The problem is that in trying to quiet some of the usual noise it adds a sonic boom of new noise and its author minimizes the problems all the new noise creates, at least in the linked article.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Overall, I think it is a fair assumption that QJ could improve (mentally and physically ) with more time at practice and further understanding of the offense. I did not see anything in his first game with shortened time with the team and on the field that would make me think that he is not the “guy” in CLE going forward. What that means going forward from a FF standpoint will depend how many games CLE can stay competitive in.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yes. I tend to agree. The only reason I didn't dismiss it is because I think that with large enough sample sizes that YPC isn't that horrendous of a stat. I know that's a sticking point with folks who are more rigid in their analytics, but I actually think that when used holistically (sorry about that word) that you can get a picture of a runner. You can look at missed tackles, yards after contact, yards before contact, red zone rushes and red zone rush percentage, and then success rate. Then I think you've got a pretty good statistical measure of a runner. And I go a little further because I've always synthesized both intuitive feel from emotion, sensory perception via judging with one's eyes, and empirical data measures like the stats I mentioned.
So yeah, I don't want to write YPC off totally, but it the primary nature of it in his model could well be a problem. And here's another thing: I am not outstanding with quantitative methods. I'm not going to have a closed mind to certain assertions, but I'm not going to blindly accept everything, either. You'll almost always hear from me that it's another data point.
Anyway, I do hope that we're not adversarial in the future. I don't like arguing at all. I find myself doing it a lot simply because message boards tend to have a battering ram/mating ritual element to them. I'd rather they didn't, but they do. Such is the format and a bit of a lament on my end.
Dez
Footballguy
Trivia time which of the 6 rookie backs taken in most fantasy leagues 1st round this year had the best day this week in a PPR league ?
If you answered Judkins you would be correct. The guy who had 2 days of practice and many thought might not play this entire year just outproduced all the other top rookie RB's drafted in the 1st round this week.
Judkins 10.1 pts
Jeanty 7.4 pts
Henderson 6 pts
Hampton 3.5 pts
Harvey 3.4 pts
Johnson 0.1 pt
How many had that on their bingo card this week ?
If you answered Judkins you would be correct. The guy who had 2 days of practice and many thought might not play this entire year just outproduced all the other top rookie RB's drafted in the 1st round this week.
Judkins 10.1 pts
Jeanty 7.4 pts
Henderson 6 pts
Hampton 3.5 pts
Harvey 3.4 pts
Johnson 0.1 pt
How many had that on their bingo card this week ?
Week2 is in the books and after last night, Hampton looks like needs more time.
Jeanty gets the volume.
Do I dare say that Judkins has leaped Hampton in terms of opportunity + role?
Hampton was drafted 3-5 round. Judkins was commonly drafted in the teens or picked up for free.
My how the tide turns in just one week.
Jeanty gets the volume.
Do I dare say that Judkins has leaped Hampton in terms of opportunity + role?
Hampton was drafted 3-5 round. Judkins was commonly drafted in the teens or picked up for free.
My how the tide turns in just one week.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Love your optimism and I share it but it's a little early to say. Hampton hasn't looked the part yet and QJ did well after little practice time (making it even more impressive) but a rough schedule ahead with the NFC North buzzsaw on the horizon. Cautiously optimistic though.
electric Ape
Footballguy
Most of the optimism around QJ’s week 2 performance will center around his 31 yard run and for good reason, it was a great run!
I think a lessor part of QJ’s stat line, 3 receptions for 10 yards, is also deserving of our attention. I don’t want to overstate the output—it was only 10 yards and the targets were nearly all of the outlet pass variety—but the bear case against Quinshon as a prospect has been: poor passing game skills and outlook + bad team = fantasy nightmare. Dylan Sampson has been talked up as the obvious Treyveon in this backfield who is sure to eat up all the passing game snaps and things certainly could play out that way but are we certain? Did DS come into the NFL with the kind of college passing game pedigree that would lock down that role?
The Browns have a strong recent track record of coaching up their young RBs and coaxing out more receiving production than one would project based on college output. It’s too early to say anything definitive on Quinshon but he earned 40% of his PPR points this week in the passing game and caught just as many balls as Sampson did and that was after 1 padded practice. I will admit that Sampson has looked smoother in the passing game than QJ and has run routes I’ve never seen QJ execute at any level but he’s also benefitted from a full camp and more coaching. Quinshon only has to play like 25% more third down snaps than was expected and catch 25% more balls than was projected to elevate himself into a way better PPR asset than the market has projected. QJ’s first game does not make me feel that an uptick in his passing game projections is impossible or even unlikely and that is very positive.
I think a lessor part of QJ’s stat line, 3 receptions for 10 yards, is also deserving of our attention. I don’t want to overstate the output—it was only 10 yards and the targets were nearly all of the outlet pass variety—but the bear case against Quinshon as a prospect has been: poor passing game skills and outlook + bad team = fantasy nightmare. Dylan Sampson has been talked up as the obvious Treyveon in this backfield who is sure to eat up all the passing game snaps and things certainly could play out that way but are we certain? Did DS come into the NFL with the kind of college passing game pedigree that would lock down that role?
The Browns have a strong recent track record of coaching up their young RBs and coaxing out more receiving production than one would project based on college output. It’s too early to say anything definitive on Quinshon but he earned 40% of his PPR points this week in the passing game and caught just as many balls as Sampson did and that was after 1 padded practice. I will admit that Sampson has looked smoother in the passing game than QJ and has run routes I’ve never seen QJ execute at any level but he’s also benefitted from a full camp and more coaching. Quinshon only has to play like 25% more third down snaps than was expected and catch 25% more balls than was projected to elevate himself into a way better PPR asset than the market has projected. QJ’s first game does not make me feel that an uptick in his passing game projections is impossible or even unlikely and that is very positive.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
honestly, I would aim a bit higher. not taking anything away from tet or judkins--but Jefferson is still considered an elite asset. While tet and judkins are both nice assets, I think it would be a stretch to call either of them elite at this moment in time (in redraft formats).
I agree. It’s just that nobody is biting. Which isn’t the end of the world. I would just love another rb. Tuten would be my rb2 once Tracy loses his job. Which may have already happened.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I think the risk of giving justin jefferson away for too low is more of a risk of ruining your fantasy season than having one week where you are starting a questionable rb2. If you trade an asset like Jefferson away--you want to do so with the confidence that what you are getting in return is very likely going to help your entire season and not just be a band aid. With that said, I can see why nobody is biting. You're looking at Wentz starting for the next couple/few games--and that might give some people hesitation. With that said, a guy like Jefferson made Sam darnold a lot of money. It wouldn't shock me if he makes Wentz look adequate.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I have Tet and QJ in my local 10-teamer and would trade them for JJ in a heartbeat, honestly, don't do that, you can do much better I think on name value alone
Thank you for talking me off the ledge.
Quinshon Judkins listed as RB1 on official depth chart.
https://www.dispatch.com/story/spor...-depth-chart-ohio-state-football/86187495007/
https://www.dispatch.com/story/spor...-depth-chart-ohio-state-football/86187495007/
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Not a big surprise, but good to see. Now let’s get past the looming suspension…
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Would this be next year if it took Rashee Rice 47 years for his or is that Chiefs treatment?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Chiefs vs. Browns…guessing a different ballgame…
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Difference was Rice had pending cases. He just settled them in July. The NFL suspended, he appealed and then the NFL and him reached a compromise. It ddin't take too long once the actual legal case got settled.
Sleeper NFL
Kevin Stefanski on rookie RB Quinshon Judkins’ debut, via @camijustice:
“I thought he did a nice job with what we asked him to do... I think he's certainly capable of doing more.”
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