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RB Raheem Mostert, LV (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JFS171
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Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
It's hard not to be a fan of Mostert 
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Raheem “league winner” Mostert
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
Mostert or Achane .. Who to own?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The one who isn’t going to be 32 this season?
Gruden's Keyboard
Footballguy
Why not both?
zamboni
Footballguy
To be fair, he was supposedly old last year turning 31. That said, reversion to the mean seems to be a reasonable bet, although I don't think he'll have a complete drop-off like, say, Jamaal Williams did after his career year.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
200 carries last year or just about?
180-190 the year prior, at the time it was the most he ever touched the ball in 1 season
Miami does not run him into the ground often
21 TDs, I gotta think that's a record for a Miami RB
If he were to replicate the numbers he has the last couple seasons and Miami once again went into the Playoffs, I might vote for him to be put in the ring of honor at Hard Rock
180-190 the year prior, at the time it was the most he ever touched the ball in 1 season
Miami does not run him into the ground often
21 TDs, I gotta think that's a record for a Miami RB
If he were to replicate the numbers he has the last couple seasons and Miami once again went into the Playoffs, I might vote for him to be put in the ring of honor at Hard Rock
jm192
Footballguy
He's another guy I'm going to have an impossible time with. FBG has him at RB28 in 0.5 PPR. For a guy coming off a 20 touchdown season, that SEEMS like absurd value. But I get it. He's 32. Achane is looming large in the background.
I certainly wouldn't take the guy as a top 15 option. But if he's a back end RB2 or a flex play that you're drafting as the 28th RB off the board, that seems like really nice upside--even at 32.
All of that said, I'm a big scaredy cat when it comes to age. 30 scares me.
I certainly wouldn't take the guy as a top 15 option. But if he's a back end RB2 or a flex play that you're drafting as the 28th RB off the board, that seems like really nice upside--even at 32.
All of that said, I'm a big scaredy cat when it comes to age. 30 scares me.
jm192
Footballguy
After looking at him some more/thinking on it some more:
He's 32, and that's certainly worrisome. But the upside...my goodness. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Which doesn't scream a guy that's about to fall off. I get it. The wheels can fall off really suddenly at 32. They can limit his usage enough to keep him fresh/limit the wear. He's not going to repeat 20 TD's, obviously. Could he get 10 or 12 though? I think we see him back around 180 carries, 20ish catches, 1000 total yards, 8 TD's feels very safe. 12 feels like a reasonable aspiration.
Fantasypros has him at RB26.
FBG has him at RB25.
I think I'll target him at RB23--ahead of Rhamondre, Zamir White, and Najee. He's going late round 7 in some mocks I've done/seen. I'm totally fine swining and missing on upside at that point. He may be somebody people come back around to as the season nears.
He's 32, and that's certainly worrisome. But the upside...my goodness. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Which doesn't scream a guy that's about to fall off. I get it. The wheels can fall off really suddenly at 32. They can limit his usage enough to keep him fresh/limit the wear. He's not going to repeat 20 TD's, obviously. Could he get 10 or 12 though? I think we see him back around 180 carries, 20ish catches, 1000 total yards, 8 TD's feels very safe. 12 feels like a reasonable aspiration.
Fantasypros has him at RB26.
FBG has him at RB25.
I think I'll target him at RB23--ahead of Rhamondre, Zamir White, and Najee. He's going late round 7 in some mocks I've done/seen. I'm totally fine swining and missing on upside at that point. He may be somebody people come back around to as the season nears.
I've been leery of older Rb's for years now and was using age 27 as my main jumping off timeframe.
I told a few people last year that the 2017 RB draft class might make me examine this a little more since so many of them were about to hit that age. Some did well and made it more encouraging, some like Hunt and Dalvin looked like shells of their old selves. Not an easy thing to figure out because wear and tear are a component as well as conditioning.
Safe to say I did not draft Mostert at all last year and it was not easy to overcome. Would garner my pick as MVP fantasy player last year relative to the cost. Last year was kind of an old man revival really at RB but I'm not betting on old unless the cost is really; really cheap or his name is CMC.
I came across an article today from Field Yates/Mike Clay and I don't normally read their stuff but so glad I did so I can start whipping people with this stat. I mean it, I've been trying to say RB's are aging out FASTER then years past, I think people just assumed better conditioning and more RBBC approaches that was not the case but I'm not a spread sheet guy and did not really have data I could point to so much as what I've been tracking/observing.
So what Clay said was since 2017 there have been 7 RB's aged 28 or older who have finished in the top 15. 6.7%. Three of them hit last year, Kamara, Mostert and Henry which is why I called it an old man revival. Before last year this was 4.4% of top 15 finishes for 28 or older RB's since 2017.
So I guess people can interpret this data as the trends are changing, since last year along almost equaled half of the top 15 finishes for age 28 or older in the previous 6 seasons. As for me I'm going to continue to heavily ding older RB's and let someone else draft them. It may have cost me a share of Mostert last year, but it's saved me from countless amount of RB busts over the last few years.
Mostert is a bit of an outlier to his lack of heavy use in his career but he's way over the old cliff and got his highest workload last year. So I'm out.
I told a few people last year that the 2017 RB draft class might make me examine this a little more since so many of them were about to hit that age. Some did well and made it more encouraging, some like Hunt and Dalvin looked like shells of their old selves. Not an easy thing to figure out because wear and tear are a component as well as conditioning.
Safe to say I did not draft Mostert at all last year and it was not easy to overcome. Would garner my pick as MVP fantasy player last year relative to the cost. Last year was kind of an old man revival really at RB but I'm not betting on old unless the cost is really; really cheap or his name is CMC.
I came across an article today from Field Yates/Mike Clay and I don't normally read their stuff but so glad I did so I can start whipping people with this stat. I mean it, I've been trying to say RB's are aging out FASTER then years past, I think people just assumed better conditioning and more RBBC approaches that was not the case but I'm not a spread sheet guy and did not really have data I could point to so much as what I've been tracking/observing.
So what Clay said was since 2017 there have been 7 RB's aged 28 or older who have finished in the top 15. 6.7%. Three of them hit last year, Kamara, Mostert and Henry which is why I called it an old man revival. Before last year this was 4.4% of top 15 finishes for 28 or older RB's since 2017.
So I guess people can interpret this data as the trends are changing, since last year along almost equaled half of the top 15 finishes for age 28 or older in the previous 6 seasons. As for me I'm going to continue to heavily ding older RB's and let someone else draft them. It may have cost me a share of Mostert last year, but it's saved me from countless amount of RB busts over the last few years.
Mostert is a bit of an outlier to his lack of heavy use in his career but he's way over the old cliff and got his highest workload last year. So I'm out.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
It boils down to cost, as you mentioned in your post. That cost for you is “really really cheap “, so that cost will vary for others, but I get it. Good post by the way.
Mostert has to worry about not just 1 RB, but perhaps 2. Achane will take away more carries than last year, assuming he's healthier. There should be a viable 3rd RB, a bigger back in either Wilson or Wright. Remember the Dallas game when Wilson got key carries down the stretch. I think Mostert was banged up, but they trust Wilson. I think Wilson makes the team, but it's not a guarantee. Wright's role is unknown, stay tuned. He might not be good in the NFL, preseason will be interesting. Last year in training camp and preseason, you could tell Achane was good.
Mostert is a much better between the tackles runner than I had expected for a speed back. I'd be tempted to pick him if he falls to the late 20s.
Mostert is a much better between the tackles runner than I had expected for a speed back. I'd be tempted to pick him if he falls to the late 20s.
These numbers need some context to really be meaningful. Age is just one part of the equation with respect to fantasy finishes. Usage, system, previous usage (how much mileage), etc have just as much of an impact on fantasy scoring as age. Looking at just one variable can put you at a disadvantage.
For those 7 RB's that finished in the top 15 are there any similarities that could be factored in that will allow you to look past age as the only reason to not draft a guy? That would have a more meaningful impact.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Oh boy. Run and get Jeff WIlson fellas!
Over Wright?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Wright was inactive Week 1 and Wilson was like 5/20 on his touches
Wilson was the RB3, he would slide to RB2 for TNF, doubt they would load up on Wright when he was inactive - coach's decision last game
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Wright seems to be rostered a lot more and also Wilson was actually active + got some touches.
He seems next in line to take over some work with Mostert out.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Jeff Wilson does play special teams, while Wright does not.
One comment about Wright from being inactive last week was that he was still learning the protections and that's why inactive - so was that true then, and if so, is it still true?
Not so sure. I think Wright becomes the #1 with Wilson playing his COP role and special teams.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Well I was able to move Mostert to IR, picked up Wright, and also dropped my kicker to pick up Wilson. So I'll see who is active/inactive Thursday night and drop one of them.
Dropped B. Allen for Wilson this morning before this news came out. Now have both Wright and Wilson.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Could it possibly be time for "The Wright Stuff" from the "New Kid on the Block"?
Big Nate
Footballguy
My 2 cents on Wilson vs Wright.
Miami wants to win this division game. Wilson is the vet who has played in this system for YEARS. Coaches trust him to know the plays, know the pick-ups and he's a pretty good runner as well. He can do what Mostert does, just slightly slower.
Read that again, he's the vet and they need someone they can trust.
Wright on the other hand is a very talented back but has not played in a regular season NFL game. We as fans do not know his understanding of the playbook and how comfortable they are with him protecting Tua if needed on passing plays.
I really like Wright's talents long term. Him and Achane could be a very dynamic 1-2 punch for years to come.
For THIS game I would tread lightly and carefully starting Wright just because you have a feeling. Wright could bust off some big plays and this offense can score TDs so the possibility is there but I do not know what his workload will be and if they trust him fully yet.
In 2022 when MIA needed Wilson he had 6 games over 15 touches and that whole year he avg nearly 5ypc. He's not fancy but he gets the job done.
Miami wants to win this division game. Wilson is the vet who has played in this system for YEARS. Coaches trust him to know the plays, know the pick-ups and he's a pretty good runner as well. He can do what Mostert does, just slightly slower.
Read that again, he's the vet and they need someone they can trust.
Wright on the other hand is a very talented back but has not played in a regular season NFL game. We as fans do not know his understanding of the playbook and how comfortable they are with him protecting Tua if needed on passing plays.
I really like Wright's talents long term. Him and Achane could be a very dynamic 1-2 punch for years to come.
For THIS game I would tread lightly and carefully starting Wright just because you have a feeling. Wright could bust off some big plays and this offense can score TDs so the possibility is there but I do not know what his workload will be and if they trust him fully yet.
In 2022 when MIA needed Wilson he had 6 games over 15 touches and that whole year he avg nearly 5ypc. He's not fancy but he gets the job done.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Good question, he's had all of summer including mini camps and training camp/preseason throughout August
If he doesn't have it down by now then when is he going to be trusted?
It's just a question not an indictment which is what i think you're asking and I'm trying to share my POV which is that it's not 1 week, he's had all summer.
I also think your point about Wilson on ST is a key reason Wright was inactive, in fact it makes perfect sense so I don't want to make any pre0judgements about Wright
If Achane is a no go, we could have our 2nd big waiver wire grab. Wright likely got cut in some leagues on waivers last night since he was inactive, some might think it's over
It's not over
themeistersinger
Footballguy
My thought at this point is Wilson is more a replacement for Mostert, and Wright is a replacement for Achane. If only Mostert is inactive I would lean Wilson, if only Achane inactive I would lean Wright, if both inactive idunno
Great post. Short week feels like Wilson should get plenty of work and Wright will actually be active this week. I’m terrified of starting Achane in case he reaggravates the injury and has to leave early. Just don’t know if I can stomach sitting him either.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Just a comment on knowing the plays/book but still having to think about it when it is called rather than instinctively doing it and being able to play at 100% ability and speed.
Not saying Wright can't do it but there is a reason it takes even the best players some time to really hit their stride. Not everyone can just come in day one and dominate. Maybe Wright is that guy but I'd rather see it before just anointing him the next one. Honestly I'm trying to stay grounded with Wright. Long term I love what he can do but want to take it slow here at the start.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Seen a report that Achane practiced today and didn't seem to have any limitations.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That's good news if true, but there is still time in the week for him to break a rib sneezing.
BespokeJort
Footballguy
FWIW I think today was a walkthrough as opposed to a full speed practice with hitting and whatnot
Big Nate
Footballguy
For sure, we will have to monitor the reports leading up to the game.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Dude is old and injury prone. I hope he gets healthy and proves me (and others) wrong this year.x.com
x.com
eagles 123
Footballguy
Honestly would rather him sit and get healthy.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Biggest TD regression of all time coming...
Big Nate
Footballguy
Why post this? He's injured so ya.... And even if he wasn't it was going to be a regression. Hypothetically he could have scored 16 TDs this year which would be fantastic but still regression.
Bigger than Jamaal Williams?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I don't know either. Williams went from 17 his last year with the Lions to 1 his first year as a Saint. Mostert could beat that, at the rate he's going. Heck, he could score 4 TDs and still have a bigger drop.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
You would think it would likely be a QB who got hurt or benched. Unless you are just talking about skill players. Then I still don’t know.
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