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RB Samaje Perine, DEN - Plays Better West of the Mississippi! (2 Viewers)

I am not saying that Samjae Perines strength is his speed. He is a very physical and powerful RB, that is more his game than trying to beat a defense to the edge or being able to turn a opening into a 40 yard + play.

All I am saying is that I think he is fast enough to be successful in the NFL. Some may not agree with that.

What do you think is the minimum speed required for a RB to be successful? Does the 40 time answer that?

A player I compared Perine to is Jordan Howard from the 2016 draft. He did not work out at the combine but here are his numbers from his pro day.

5'11" 230 lbs

Forty 4,59 

3 cone 7.14

20 yard shuttle 4.34

Perines pro day

5'11" 233 lbs

Forty 4.59

3 cone 7,26 (combine measurement)

20 yard shuttle 4.37 (combine measurement)

Howard had a slightly better 3 cone time than Perine did. He was a 5th round pick in the NFL draft and he had a pretty good year.

Now as Borden mentions upthread, Perine may not have as good of vision and feel for blocking that Howard has. There may be some other areas where Howard is a better football player as well. However based on these athleticism scores, (which are comparing pro day numbers to pro day numbers) if Howard is athletic enough to be a successful NFL RB than Perine is too.

 
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He is what he is: a pounder who lacks dynamic home run qualities. Basically somewhere in the ballpark of Jeremy Hill, Rudi Johnson, or Michael Turner. Speed/explosiveness were never going to be strengths for him. He isn't that type of back. Honestly, I felt like any 40 time under 4.65 would have been a win for him. You worry about guys like this sliding below the 4.7 barrier, at which point they start to look really bad. His workout wasn't great, but I think it keeps him on track for being a 3rd round-early 4th round kind of guy, which is what he has looked like for a while. He lacks the versatility and/or special explosiveness to be a 1st rounder.

Backs like this don't dominate in the NFL. Teams want running backs who can catch and/or create explosive plays. That doesn't mean there isn't a role for this type of player though. While he lacks suddenness and speed, he brings power and good footwork. He can handle 200-300 carries as a lead back or part of a committee. His highlights show that while he isn't a burner and struggles to elude in the second level, he can make one or two cuts early in the play.

I would say he's one of the less mysterious prospects in this draft. You know what you're getting. A high floor/low ceiling type of guy who's going to be Shonn Greene/Jeremy Hilly type of player in the worst case scenario or a Michael Turner type in a team that caters to his strengths. I wouldn't touch him near a Mixon or Fournette type of guy, but after the elite backs are gone, he's one of the next best options. If you figure his rookie draft ADP will be something like 8-14 then I think he's going to be a decent proposition, especially in mandatory 2RB leagues.

I don't have a full rookie board yet, but for me there are many better FF prospects in this draft (Mixon, Fournette, JuJu, Davis, Engram, and others). Once you get past the guys who look like they have a chance to be special, Perine becomes a decent option. I think he can provide some value, especially in deeper formats where RB12-24 type finishes might have some real utility. If you are thinking he's the next Ricky Williams then I'd say it's unlikely. His strengths/weaknesses seem pretty clear.

 
Xue said:
I'm going off the video, just counting the frames and calculating.
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Serious question - is that a reliable calculation? Because I remember reading how someone did that with McCaffrey's run that was posted on the internet prior to the combine and he was much faster at the combine.

 
buck naked said:
Serious question - is that a reliable calculation? Because I remember reading how someone did that with McCaffrey's run that was posted on the internet prior to the combine and he was much faster at the combine.
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Xue's position on McCaffrey after his procedure for timing prospects was that McCaffrey couldn't run in the 4.4s

 
Hankmoody said:
Please cite your sources.   Because that's not at all what he said in what I observed.
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Verbatim:



Posted February 11 · 








   On 2/10/2017 at 6:30 PM,  menobrown said: 
Jeff Legwold Verified account ‏@Jeff_Legwold


 
 
 
NFL GM just asked me if I knew what C. McCaffrey ran in 40 at Combine rehearsal Thurs. - I told him in 4.4s & he really liked sound of that.
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  •  


  •  



Xue said:
That's a load of crock.
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Bronco Billy said:
Verbatim:
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As I suspected you are twisting his words.  He didn't say McCaffrey isn't capable of running in the 4.4's, he's saying he didn't in the video being discussed.  There was even a question if the video was the same Xue was talking about.  He actually specifically did say McCaffrey could likely run a 4.5 with more technique work.  McCaffrey ran a 4.48 official.

Bronco Billy said:
Cute edit btw.
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I gave you the benefit of the doubt in case you saw something I didn't.  I guess that wasn't necessary.

 
Hankmoody said:
As I suspected you are twisting his words.  He didn't say McCaffrey isn't capable of running in the 4.4's, he's saying he didn't in the video being discussed.  There was even a question if the video was the same Xue was talking about.  He actually specifically did say McCaffrey could likely run a 4.5 with more technique work.  McCaffrey ran a 4.48 official.

I gave you the benefit of the doubt in case you saw something I didn't.  I guess that wasn't necessary.
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I specifically asked him to clarify his post, which he declined to do other than to stand by his assertion.

What twisting is there?  The quote is right there, along with what he was responding to.  You seem to have some kind of ax to grind with me, not that I could really care.  Your original post displayed that clearly before you decided to rewrite the post completely with your edit.  I guess you were embarrassed by your initial post.

I linked the exchange.  People can look at it and see for themselves.

 
buck naked said:
Xue said:
I'm going off the video, just counting the frames and calculating.
Click to expand...
Serious question - is that a reliable calculation? Because I remember reading how someone did that with McCaffrey's run that was posted on the internet prior to the combine and he was much faster at the combine.
Click to expand...
I've relied on Xue's estimates.

In previous years, nfldraftscout put out initial reports of 40 times and then later updated them to their final "official" 40 time. I was able to predict their final "official" 40 time more accurately if I used both Xue's estimate and the initial nfldraftscout report, compared to if I only used one of those two sources of data.

This year, for pro days I'm planning to put equal weight on Xue's estimate and the nfldraftscout number, and for the combine I'm planning to put about 75% weight on the official number and 25% weight on Xue's estimate.

 
Ilov80s said:
Is he getting back down to that weight? 
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I don't know. I haven't heard or read anyone that is knowledgeable enough about his situation to answer your question, either. So, he remains a bit of a Fantasy Football draft pick reward/risk. In Dynasty leagues, he presents a value (because of this potential) if you can get him late in the 1st (rookie drafts), or thereafter.

For what it's worth, I would draft him in my 10 team (160+ players rostered; 16 per plus 2 IR spots, hence the "+") rookie/free agent draft with my 1.10 pick, right now. Of course, his actual NFL draft scenario (position, team, opportunity, etc.) will further dictate if I'm willing to continue in my "1.10 draft position selection of Perine", or modify (again, depending on what transpires).

A bit of a disclaimer, I believe that D'Onta Foreman is being undervalued by #DraftTwitter and most analysts. I like Foreman in a similar position to Perine, but think that I could pick him up at 2.03 (or the 13th pick) in my dynasty free agent/rookie draft. 

[My actual draft is late in Training Camp (TBD but usually in late August), so I have time to re-evaluate my thoughts.]

 
ZWK said:
I've relied on Xue's estimates.

In previous years, nfldraftscout put out initial reports of 40 times and then later updated them to their final "official" 40 time. I was able to predict their final "official" 40 time more accurately if I used both Xue's estimate and the initial nfldraftscout report, compared to if I only used one of those two sources of data.

This year, for pro days I'm planning to put equal weight on Xue's estimate and the nfldraftscout number, and for the combine I'm planning to put about 75% weight on the official number and 25% weight on Xue's estimate.
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I wonder if a 3rd source might improve the accuracy even further?

 
Biabreakable said:
ZWK said:
I've relied on Xue's estimates.

In previous years, nfldraftscout put out initial reports of 40 times and then later updated them to their final "official" 40 time. I was able to predict their final "official" 40 time more accurately if I used both Xue's estimate and the initial nfldraftscout report, compared to if I only used one of those two sources of data.

This year, for pro days I'm planning to put equal weight on Xue's estimate and the nfldraftscout number, and for the combine I'm planning to put about 75% weight on the official number and 25% weight on Xue's estimate.
Click to expand...
I wonder if a 3rd source might improve the accuracy even further?
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Probably by about a hundredth of a second. The different sources tend to give pretty similar numbers. So far this offseason, Xue and nfldraftscout differ by less than .02 sec on average.

 
An AFC national scout said that Oklahoma RB Samaje Perine "will be a solid pro back."

"I love Perine. Great kid, hard worker, reliable. He's a team-first player who will fit into a committee approach or can handle all the work," the scout said. If you're looking for a comparison for the 5-foot-11, 233-pound rock-of-a-back, look no further than former Falcons RB Michael Turner. Both Pro Football Focus and NFL Media's Lance Zierlein forward that comp, with Zierlein writing that Perine "doesn't have the burst or play speed to be a dynamic lead back, but he can handle a heavy workload if needed and he should become an immediate short-yardage and goal-line option."

 
 
Source: NFL.com 
Apr 14 - 5:27 PM
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One NFL scout speaking with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel called Oklahoma RB Samaje Perine "kind of [a] plodder" who's like "Eddie Lacy but not as explosive."

"He doesn’t run through you," the scout said. "Eddie had great feet for a big man. He doesn’t quite have that. Good in pass pro but isn’t a threat out of the backfield." That's a pretty pessimistic view of Perine. The two other scouts who spoke with the Sentinel were far higher on him. "He’s built like a brick (expletive)," said one. "He is an awesome kid. Awesome. Built low to the ground. He’ll be able to absorb punishment and be durable compared to some of these high-cut backs that run fast. They get a couple shots to their legs and they’re done. There’s questions about him as a third-down back, but if you want a big back he can be a workhorse for you." Perine, who ran for 4,122 yards over three years in college, led RBs at the NFL Combine with 30 reps on the bench press. A third scout said: "He’s a big guy with really nice feet that has enough size to run tough inside but has enough quickness and lateral agility to bounce it outside."

 
 
Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel 
Apr 21 - 3:59 PM
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As an OU fan, I really like Perine (a lot), but watching a ton of their games he really seemed to get dinged up quite a bit. Would leave games for a quarter and then come back. Really kind of "soft" in that sense for such a big back.

 
FunkyPlutos said:
As an OU fan, I really like Perine (a lot), but watching a ton of their games he really seemed to get dinged up quite a bit. Would leave games for a quarter and then come back. Really kind of "soft" in that sense for such a big back.
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Soft?  :loco:

Are you talking about this?

He took a helmet to helmet hit and had to leave the game but returned to the game at the end of it.

Perine did have some injuries that he had to work through in 2016.

Samaje Perine Injury: Updates on Oklahoma RB's Recovery from Ankle Surgery

Oklahoma Football 


 
✔@OU_Football



Samaje Perine had ankle surgery today, will miss spring ball. Coach Stoops: "Everything went well. We expect a full and complete recovery."
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He missed 3 games (close to four) in 2016 due to what they call a muscle pull in his leg. Could be related to the ankle surgery? I don't have any further details than that.

Perine hasn't played since the Sooners' second series against Kansas State on Oct. 15, when he went down with a pulled muscle in his leg. Stoops said he would be out for two or three weeks.
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As speculated earlier on in the thread, it could be these injuries that caused him to look slower in 2016 than he had in previous seasons.

It seems rude to me to call a player soft when they clearly were dealing with injuries. You juxtapose this with saying that you have watched a lot of his games, suggesting this is something you have seen from him throughout his career. Is that what you mean to say?

I did note the play that Ryan Riddle points out from Perine's last game where he steps out of bounds instead of delivering a blow and at least trying to get yards after contact. It was his last game though. Maybe he did take it easy out there at times in his last season?

 
I just felt that for how powerful he is and how hard he runs, he always seemed to get dinged on little plays where he shouldn't...I love the kid but that always stuck out to me - he was always headed to sideline for some little injury.

 
Insanely under-valued. One of the best RB prospects in the draft. The suggestion that he is just a pounder or a plodder - watch some tape, he is capable of being super-explosive, of breaking through into the secondary and out-running defenders as well as powering over them.

 
Some nice highlights here. Note multiple plays where he turns on the jets, in particular at 2'26. Still think he's a plodder or a pounder?

 
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Miro Z said:
Some nice highlights here. Note multiple plays where he turns on the jets, in particular at 2'26. Still think he's a plodder or a pounder?
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A video of his 2 combine runs. 4.66 and 4.65

You can watch him run into the back of his OL (and stay there) when there's a lane right beside him, multiple times, in the game against Auburn here. 

I'm not saying he is bad but referencing highlight video (against a conference that isn't known for it's defensive prowess) when we have better sources probably isn't the best way to go.

 
There is a good example in the game Borden linked above where there is a clear gap to Perine's left that if he would cut outside of his blocker, would allow him to at least get downhill. There is a defender who has that gap but is playing zone and Perine should at least be able to get to the LOS before the defender can close the distance. 

Instead he chooses to nudge his blocker and see if a gap will open up that way. When this fails he does try to cut to the hole after running into the back of his blocker and giving a push. He isn't that nimble getting around the engaged lineman in front of him, and the defender does close the gap with another defender also crashing down making it two on one instead of one on one if he had tried the gap right away.

I am not sure if this is bad vision or just a bad decision on his part. He does notice the gap after he runs into his blockers, not sure if he saw it before that or not. Possible the play is designed for a hole to open at that gap but didn't?

There was a defensive holding call that negates this play. Are there other examples of Perine not seeing the hole than this play?

Another play in this game that was pointed out by Ryan Riddle is the run where he gets a toss to left but opts to go out of bounds instead of cutting it back inside for extra yards after contact, or possibly a broken tackle. That would be an example of being soft, as FunkyPluto's is talking about.

He has some really good plays in this game as well. Those are a couple examples of some negatives.

I have some concern about his injuries being a reason why he lost some of the speed you see from him in 2014. 

 
Biabreakable said:
There is a good example in the game Borden linked above where there is a clear gap to Perine's left that if he would cut outside of his blocker, would allow him to at least get downhill. There is a defender who has that gap but is playing zone and Perine should at least be able to get to the LOS before the defender can close the distance. 

Instead he chooses to nudge his blocker and see if a gap will open up that way. When this fails he does try to cut to the hole after running into the back of his blocker and giving a push. He isn't that nimble getting around the engaged lineman in front of him, and the defender does close the gap with another defender also crashing down making it two on one instead of one on one if he had tried the gap right away.

I am not sure if this is bad vision or just a bad decision on his part. He does notice the gap after he runs into his blockers, not sure if he saw it before that or not. Possible the play is designed for a hole to open at that gap but didn't?

There was a defensive holding call that negates this play. Are there other examples of Perine not seeing the hole than this play?
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At 0:38 is the play you broke down. 1:04 it looks like a "special" back could squirted out from somewhere but I can't tell so I won't ding him for that. 1:55 right side is open. 2:47 and 3:05 right side looks available. 4:03 left side looks open. 4:45 chased down from behind because looking/waiting for something inside to open but the outside is semi-open. It looks blocked but there is a free defender farther outside. 

 
At 1:02 they are running power to the left side, you have the RT and RG pulling across to the left side and the FB going to the left side as well. The left defensive end crashes into the backfield not allowing any cut back, They did seal the edge so maybe he could have taken this outside instead of running behind his blocking that was getting some good push in the middle and he does gain yards. The defensive back who has outside contain was far enough back that I think Perine could have tried to run this outside, but as you say it isn't really clear from the angle what he was looking at.

1:55 this is power to the middle with the guard and wing back pulling inside to lead the play. He gets caught up with his blocker in the hole and runs into him. I see some space to the right where if he could have timed this better and not run into his blocker, that seemed like the gap he should choose instead of running into his lineman. Not sure I would say this is open, there are defenders watching that gap, but he at least had some space to work with there.

2:47 everyone blocks down to the right, so this looks like zone blocking. They do seal off the right side and if he bounced it out there could have gotten some yards I think depending on how long it would take for him to get around. Perine takes this inside and gets low gaining 3 or 4 yards. I can see what you are saying that there is better blocking for him to the outside, the TE is setting up to seal the LB to the inside and Perine may have had a lane on the right or at least a one on one if the corner or LB get off their blocks.

3:05 I think he runs to the right hole on this play it is just that he had an opportunity to bounce it outside after he has crossed the LOS, the defender gets a hit on his legs which pushes him back, instead of trying to cut away to the outside, he is just trying to get his momentum moving forward again, but can't.

4:03 is power to the left with the right guard and wing back pulling across. Perine hits this hole just fine, but what we can't see well (because there are a lot of bodies in the way) is that the LB has gotten underneath his block and has gotten a a grip on Perines leg, which prevents him from cutting this outside to the left. Now could he have bounced outside of this with better instinct and change of direction? Possibly. On this one I see it more as a defender making a good play.

4:45 The right guard pull and the DT in front of him scrapes behind him. The tackle shoots out to the second level and blocks no one. This play looks like it is designed to run to the left side but the DT and DE crash into the backfield immediately unblocked. Sure Perine hesitates for a tick when he sees these two guys before they take him down. He maybe could have gotten back to the LOS if he puts his head down. But this play has clearly failed to block the defenders who make an easy play.

I do think it is enough to make you wonder what he is seeing some times, and thanks for pointing out more specific examples to look at Borden.  

Most of these runs look like gap or power runs, with the one exception of the play at 2:47 that he did ok on, but perhaps also missed an opportunity provided by what looked like some good blocking for him to take that run outside. Just speculating that he might be a better fit for man blocking scheme than zone. That is how they used him more often in this game anyways.

 
Nice breakdown. Since we already looked at Perine's game, I went and looked at Mixon's DB from the same game (link). It's definitely not perfect but you can see that those lanes/outlets are open and Mixon is able to expose them a few times. I'm not trying to compare the two but it's cool because you have two different NFL backs going against the same defense.

 
Yeah I was thinking about that it would likely be useful to chart each RB based on how many times you see them missing a hole or opportunity and turn that into a vision metric?. If you can do it the same for every player, the results might be helpful by comparison. I suppose just log each time you see a player missing an opportunity, then see how they stack up on a per game basis. Or perhaps you have a better idea about how to go about doing that?

I think it is hard to do without coaches film. I am not sure if I would have a lot of confidence in my charting without that. Some of these plays you just cannot see what the RB is looking at without the overhead or straight on angles. I see a bunch of linemen washing, I can't really tell where the holes actually are a lot of the time from the side view. Even with lots of rewinding.

Some of the examples you identified, I didn't really agree with the play being poor vision, for example the play at 4:45 is just a win for the defense. Not sure what you would expect any RB to do with that. Yes some RB can somehow find a way out of bad plays like this (and I love those guys) but more often than not that is just a win for the defense, which does win sometimes. A RB who can get out of a play like this, isn't doing so because of vision so much but because of change of direction and acceleration abilities. A fast RB might be able to take that play to the outside on the left. Perine is not playing with the speed to consistently bounce these plays outside, so that isn't something he is looking to do as much as Mixon does.

 
My Mixon comment was only to illustrate that the Auburn defense was allowing those cutback/outlet lanes. It wasn't just a camera angle. Either Perine didn't see them or he doesn't believe that he could get more yards by moving sideways. 

The play at 4:45 isn't just a win for the defense because if he had the speed, there was a run to the outside. I think even if he just doesn't hesitate, he probably has enough of an angle to get by penetrating defenders. 

My list of "negative" plays aren't to say that he is junk, just that I don't think he's special by NFL standards. He's a committee back, IMO. 

 
Watching the play at 4:45 again right as he is getting the ball he is looking in the direction of the edge and he does run that way, like he is going to test the outside. There is a double team block by the LT and the TE on the DE but he keeps the blockers at a distance with his arms and does enough to set the edge that Perine decides to cut inside of this double team as briefly there does look like there is a gap opening up there. The center or the guard has gotten some push on his defender making a hole between the left guard and tackle. 

At the moment that Perine cuts to this inside hole is when the defensive pursuit gets to him. The direction he is facing at the handoff is pointing him to the outside and he likely doesn't see the end crashing down unblocked until it is too late.

I am not sure why he decides to cut it back inside other than he saw a hole opening up there briefly. The end may not have been able to get off of his block if Perine did bounce this outside, maybe he would of.

If your point is that Perine needs to have his head on a swivel and notice the unblocked defenders crashing down I agree. I just don't really agree that is was a clear choice for him to take this run outside. His cut inside seems to be reacting to how the DE played the double team. He is playing just inside of the the TE the play is designed for him to get outside if it is there (his first read) or to cut it back the way he does in my opinion.

In the Mixon clips you see a couple examples of him having good vision, You also see him stop his feet in the backfield just like Perine does when there is penetration. He gets tackled in the backfield on a couple of these just like Perine does. On another one he finds the cut back lane inside and is able to score a TD.

Most of Mixons plays are getting him out on the perimiter in space right away, eliminating some of the choices he has to make. He isn't involved in as many plays as Perine is so I think the failure rate is likely about the same. 

 
Redskins selected Oklahoma RB Samaje Perine with the No. 114 overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft.
Perine (5’11/233) made 30 starts in three years at OU, operating as the Thunder to Joe Mixon’s Lightning and leaving college with a career 685-4,122-49 (6.0 YPC) rushing line and 40-321-2 (8.0) receiving. Perine broke Billy Sims’ all-time rushing record at Oklahoma. A powerful tackle breaker, Perine’s athleticism was unsurprisingly sub-par at the Combine with 4.65 speed and 25th-percentile SPARQ results. Perine looks like a plodder at times on tape, but his skill set translates well to a short-yardage and clock-killing role, and his receiving ability is better than advertised. His addition likely spells the end of Matt Jones' time in Washington.
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Absolutely love this landing spot. Think he makes an impact right away. Where do people see him going in dynasty?

 
Yeah. A lot will depend on when our draft is too. It's our first rookie draft and people want to have it same time as our old redraft one after preseason but I Had planned on pushing it up earlier. I think perine could establish himself pretty early on. Not a lot of competition in thatbackfield . 

 
I'd be really surprised if Sammy didn't overtake Kelley & Jones early on, at worst by week 5 or 6.

 
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