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RB TreVeyon Henderson, NE (2 Viewers)

Anarchy99 said:
You guys can all have Henderson. It will drive down the price of Stevenson . . . who will get 50-60% of the RB touches and red zone looks. Henderson has an ADP of 60 and rising. Stevenson is at 105 and falling. You don't send a guy you think of as a bell cow, heavy usage, major RB piece out to return kickoffs in a preseason game. You just don't.
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Don't think Stevenson is going that late, but after last night maybe he's dropping next week.
 
Anarchy99 said:
You guys can all have Henderson. It will drive down the price of Stevenson . . . who will get 50-60% of the RB touches and red zone looks. Henderson has an ADP of 60 and rising. Stevenson is at 105 and falling. You don't send a guy you think of as a bell cow, heavy usage, major RB piece out to return kickoffs in a preseason game. You just don't.
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Deal.
 
Everyone’s trying to replicate Monty and Gibbs and unfortunately without the touchdown equity what does that leave for Henderson? James Cook before his touchdown heavy season?
 
As Mr Wolf said "let's not start sucking each other's.......". well.....you know the rest. He looked real good last night no doubt but he had multiple injuries in college. Higher work load could lead to time missed. He might be best served as a 15-18 touch guy with fireworks possible on each touch.
 
Tha Guru said:
As Mr Wolf said "let's not start sucking each other's.......". well.....you know the rest. He looked real good last night no doubt but he had multiple injuries in college. Higher work load could lead to time missed. He might be best served as a 15-18 touch guy with fireworks possible on each touch.
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I'd take that. I've said from the beginning this is a guy that can do more with less and still be very fantasy relevant. The combination of his rushing and receiving could produce 100+ yards many weeks. I would love 18 touches total a game. 12 rushes for 72 yards and 6 receptions for 50+ yards.
 
Anarchy99 said:
You guys can all have Henderson. It will drive down the price of Stevenson . . . who will get 50-60% of the RB touches and red zone looks. Henderson has an ADP of 60 and rising. Stevenson is at 105 and falling. You don't send a guy you think of as a bell cow, heavy usage, major RB piece out to return kickoffs in a preseason game. You just don't.
Click to expand...
Kyren was a PR 2 years ago
 
TampaMike19 said:
Everyone’s trying to replicate Monty and Gibbs and unfortunately without the touchdown equity what does that leave for Henderson? James Cook before his touchdown heavy season?
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Personally I think it would leave him approaching 80 receptions probably 1300-1500 total yards. Gotta think he’s getting at least 6-8 tds with that many yards. Big return on his ADP if it doesn’t skyrocket.
 
Anarchy99 said:
You guys can all have Henderson. It will drive down the price of Stevenson . . . who will get 50-60% of the RB touches and red zone looks. Henderson has an ADP of 60 and rising. Stevenson is at 105 and falling. You don't send a guy you think of as a bell cow, heavy usage, major RB piece out to return kickoffs in a preseason game. You just don't.
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Did someone call him a bell cow?
 
RHam is just a JAG with occasional fumbling issues. RHam might end up with more carries but Henderson’s receiving and big play ability gives him a much higher ceiling.
 
King of the Jungle said:
elguapo07 said:
RHam is just a JAG with occasional fumbling issues. RHam might end up with more carries but Henderson’s receiving and big play ability gives him a much higher ceiling.
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If Rham is a JAG he would not end up with more carries most likely.
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I’d wager that Henderson will get more touches but RHam will get slightly more carries. There are plenty of JAGs that get 200 carries.
 
One thing to consider too is that Maye is probably going to run more this year (and probably more than any Pats QB in recent memory). Those rushes take away from Stevenson more than Henderson IMO and or favor a speedier receiving back like Henderson. Stevenson also continues to struggle with fumbles.

Stevenson will still have value, but for fantasy I'd say Henderson has more.
 
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
 
Anarchy99 said:
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
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You sound like someone that has a lot of Stevenson shares. For fantasy, this situation won't be about who gets the most carries. I think Henderson is good enough to be a combination rush / rec to matter more in fantasy football. Because afterall, that's all that matters to me. At the end of the year, barring injury, you will see Henderson between 150-170 carries and unlimited potential in the receiving game. Perhaps 50+ receptions.
 
JohnnyU said:
Anarchy99 said:
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
Click to expand...
You sound like someone that has a lot of Stevenson shares. For fantasy, this situation won't be about who gets the most carries. I think Henderson is good enough to be a combination rush / rec to matter more in fantasy football. Because afterall, that's all that matters to me. At the end of the year, barring injury, you will see Henderson between 150-170 carries and unlimited potential in the receiving game. Perhaps 50+ receptions.
Click to expand...
I own 0 shares of either player.
 
JohnnyU said:
Anarchy99 said:
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
Click to expand...
You sound like someone that has a lot of Stevenson shares. For fantasy, this situation won't be about who gets the most carries. I think Henderson is good enough to be a combination rush / rec to matter more in fantasy football. Because afterall, that's all that matters to me. At the end of the year, barring injury, you will see Henderson between 150-170 carries and unlimited potential in the receiving game. Perhaps 50+ receptions.
Click to expand...
I have a decent amount of Stevenson shares and im counting on him to be an RB3 that gives you those sneaky RB2 numbers. With his skill set, easy schedule and improved coaching and team play i can see that exactly happening for him for the next yr or so. A similar Montgomery and Gibbs situation
 
JohnnyU said:
Anarchy99 said:
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
Click to expand...
You sound like someone that has a lot of Stevenson shares. For fantasy, this situation won't be about who gets the most carries. I think Henderson is good enough to be a combination rush / rec to matter more in fantasy football. Because afterall, that's all that matters to me. At the end of the year, barring injury, you will see Henderson between 150-170 carries and unlimited potential in the receiving game. Perhaps 50+ receptions.
Click to expand...
Agreed Johnny. Barring injury I don't see a scenario where Henderson doesn't get 60 receptions. If his body can take 200 carries this guy is gonna surprise and be stop 10 rb this year. He just has that feel like he is gonna find the endzone 10 times. Imo
 
I think Henderson has his role and it will be 50-80 catches on the season and about 10 carries a game. I see it very much like early Jahmyr Gibbs. Stevenson will be the grinder and if he doesn't play well, starts fumbling again, or got injured that Gibson would be his replacement.

Henderson will eventually be too good to keep off the field though.
 
FarFromHome said:
JohnnyU said:
Anarchy99 said:
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
Click to expand...
You sound like someone that has a lot of Stevenson shares. For fantasy, this situation won't be about who gets the most carries. I think Henderson is good enough to be a combination rush / rec to matter more in fantasy football. Because afterall, that's all that matters to me. At the end of the year, barring injury, you will see Henderson between 150-170 carries and unlimited potential in the receiving game. Perhaps 50+ receptions.
Click to expand...
Agreed Johnny. Barring injury I don't see a scenario where Henderson doesn't get 60 receptions. If his body can take 200 carries this guy is gonna surprise and be stop 10 rb this year. He just has that feel like he is gonna find the endzone 10 times. Imo
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Agree. 80 receptions is my prediction. Seems like a lot but with a less than stellar WR group, Henderson will see a massive target load IMO.
 
JohnnyU said:
Anarchy99 said:
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
Click to expand...
You sound like someone that has a lot of Stevenson shares. For fantasy, this situation won't be about who gets the most carries. I think Henderson is good enough to be a combination rush / rec to matter more in fantasy football. Because afterall, that's all that matters to me. At the end of the year, barring injury, you will see Henderson between 150-170 carries and unlimited potential in the receiving game. Perhaps 50+ receptions.
Click to expand...
He’s someone who has been a Pats fan and observer for 20+ years. But if you want to dismiss his views, that’s a choice.
 
efactor said:
FarFromHome said:
JohnnyU said:
Anarchy99 said:
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
Click to expand...
You sound like someone that has a lot of Stevenson shares. For fantasy, this situation won't be about who gets the most carries. I think Henderson is good enough to be a combination rush / rec to matter more in fantasy football. Because afterall, that's all that matters to me. At the end of the year, barring injury, you will see Henderson between 150-170 carries and unlimited potential in the receiving game. Perhaps 50+ receptions.
Click to expand...
Agreed Johnny. Barring injury I don't see a scenario where Henderson doesn't get 60 receptions. If his body can take 200 carries this guy is gonna surprise and be stop 10 rb this year. He just has that feel like he is gonna find the endzone 10 times. Imo
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Agree. 80 receptions is my prediction. Seems like a lot but with a less than stellar WR group, Henderson will see a massive target load IMO.
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Yep. In a big play league i think the Patriots already realize he is their best playmaker. Time to utilize him with the Gibbs blueprint. Gibbs rookie year of 182 rushes and 52 receptions is the floor in my opinion. Barring injuries of course.
 
Alex P Keaton said:
JohnnyU said:
Anarchy99 said:
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
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You sound like someone that has a lot of Stevenson shares. For fantasy, this situation won't be about who gets the most carries. I think Henderson is good enough to be a combination rush / rec to matter more in fantasy football. Because afterall, that's all that matters to me. At the end of the year, barring injury, you will see Henderson between 150-170 carries and unlimited potential in the receiving game. Perhaps 50+ receptions.
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He’s someone who has been a Pats fan and observer for 20+ years. But if you want to dismiss his views, that’s a choice.
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I just think it's a little too Stevenson friendly. Frankly I don't see the fantasy upside with Stevenson. Am I dismissing Stevenson, no. He will probably get more rushes than Henderson, but he won't be as fantasy relevant as Henderson. While I respect @Anarchy99 knowledge for all things Patriots, I'm an OSU fan that has watched a lot of Henderson.
 
JohnnyU said:
I just think it's a little too Stevenson friendly. Frankly I don't see the fantasy upside with Stevenson. Am I dismissing Stevenson, no. He will probably get more rushes than Henderson, but he won't be as fantasy relevant as Henderson. While I respect @Anarchy99 knowledge for all things Patriots, I'm an OSU fan that has watched a lot of Henderson.
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I too am a Buckeye's fan. My son graduated from tOSU. My in-laws live there. I frequent Ohio regularly. I met Ryan Day last year at my other son's graduatin (he was the commencement speaker). As I said . . . this isn't about Henderson. He's very talented and explosive. He will likely turn into the next guy after Stevenson.

All I did was present the actually known outcomes from the past 20 years (for McDaniels) and the last few years for Stevenson and NE. That's not an opinion. That's what actually happened.

Since I posted, NO ONE has addressed the 800 pound gorillas in the room: the NE OL has been deplorable lately, the offense been predominantly been incompetent, and McDaniels is not Ben Johnson.
 
Anarchy99 said:
JohnnyU said:
I just think it's a little too Stevenson friendly. Frankly I don't see the fantasy upside with Stevenson. Am I dismissing Stevenson, no. He will probably get more rushes than Henderson, but he won't be as fantasy relevant as Henderson. While I respect @Anarchy99 knowledge for all things Patriots, I'm an OSU fan that has watched a lot of Henderson.
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I too am a Buckeye's fan. My son graduated from tOSU. My in-laws live there. I frequent Ohio regularly. I met Ryan Day last year at my other son's graduatin (he was the commencement speaker). As I said . . . this isn't about Henderson. He's very talented and explosive. He will likely turn into the next guy after Stevenson.

All I did was present the actually known outcomes from the past 20 years (for McDaniels) and the last few years for Stevenson and NE. That's not an opinion. That's what actually happened.

Since I posted, NO ONE has addressed the 800 pound gorillas in the room: the NE OL has been deplorable lately, the offense been predominantly been incompetent, and McDaniels is not Ben Johnson.
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I would think having as you said, "NE OL has been deplorable lately", that would benefit Henderson even more if they can get him out in space. Stevenson, not so much. Players like Barry Sanders played behind horrible OLs and was able to make something out of nothing because of his explosiveness. Not saying Henderson is another Barry Sanders, but just using that as an example of an RB with Henderson's architype and the anti-Stevenson architype.
 
JohnnyU said:
I would think having as you said, "NE OL has been deplorable lately", that would benefit Henderson even more if they can get him out in space. Stevenson, not so much. Players like Barry Sanders played behind horrible OLs and was able to make something out of nothing because of his explosiveness. Not saying Henderson is another Barry Sanders, but just using that as an example of an RB with Henderson's architype and the anti-Stevenson architype.
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NE has had great in space and fast players over the years . . . White, Vereen, Strong at RB and Thornton, Dorsett, Bethel Johnson, Brandon Tate, Chad Jackson, Donte Stallworth. Again, I am not suggesting Henderson isn't a top talent. I'm just not convinced McDaniels is the guy that can unlock and unleash him.
 
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Anarchy99 said:
JohnnyU said:
I would think having as you said, "NE OL has been deplorable lately", that would benefit Henderson even more if they can get him out in space. Stevenson, not so much. Players like Barry Sanders played behind horrible OLs and was able to make something out of nothing because of his explosiveness. Not saying Henderson is another Barry Sanders, but just using that as an example of an RB with Henderson's architype and the anti-Stevenson architype.
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NE has had great in space and fast players over the years . . . White, Vereen, Strong at RB and Thornton, Dorsett, Bethel Johnson, Brandon Tate, Chad Jackson, Donte Stallworth. Again, I am not suggesting Henderson is a top talent. I'm just not convinced McDaniels is the guy that can unlock and unleash him.
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You're not suggesting Henderson is a top talent? Well, I beg to disagree with that for sure.
 
Anarchy99 said:
JohnnyU said:
I would think having as you said, "NE OL has been deplorable lately", that would benefit Henderson even more if they can get him out in space. Stevenson, not so much. Players like Barry Sanders played behind horrible OLs and was able to make something out of nothing because of his explosiveness. Not saying Henderson is another Barry Sanders, but just using that as an example of an RB with Henderson's architype and the anti-Stevenson architype.
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NE has had great in space and fast players over the years . . . White, Vereen, Strong at RB and Thornton, Dorsett, Bethel Johnson, Brandon Tate, Chad Jackson, Donte Stallworth. Again, I am not suggesting Henderson is a top talent. I'm just not convinced McDaniels is the guy that can unlock and unleash him.
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What talented players would you say McDaniels held back? Who took it to the next level once they left his system?
 
JohnnyU said:
Anarchy99 said:
JohnnyU said:
I would think having as you said, "NE OL has been deplorable lately", that would benefit Henderson even more if they can get him out in space. Stevenson, not so much. Players like Barry Sanders played behind horrible OLs and was able to make something out of nothing because of his explosiveness. Not saying Henderson is another Barry Sanders, but just using that as an example of an RB with Henderson's architype and the anti-Stevenson architype.
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NE has had great in space and fast players over the years . . . White, Vereen, Strong at RB and Thornton, Dorsett, Bethel Johnson, Brandon Tate, Chad Jackson, Donte Stallworth. Again, I am not suggesting Henderson is a top talent. I'm just not convinced McDaniels is the guy that can unlock and unleash him.
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You're not suggesting Henderson is a top talent? Well, I beg to disagree with that for sure.
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should have been ISNT. Meaning i think he is.
 
Boston said:
What talented players would you say McDaniels held back? Who took it to the next level once they left his system?
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I'd say Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker were far better post-McDaniels. But McDaniels drafted guys that didn't pan out. Is that on him or the player? He turned Welker and Edelman into top slot guys, no doubt. But NE was already ahead of the game in using a slot WR with Troy Brown, especially with Brady.
 
Anarchy99 said:
Boston said:
What talented players would you say McDaniels held back? Who took it to the next level once they left his system?
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I'd say Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker were far better post-McDaniels. But McDaniels drafted guys that didn't pan out. Is that on him or the player? He turned Welker and Edelman into top slot guys, no doubt. But NE was already ahead of the game in using a slot WR with Troy Brown, especially with Brady.
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He was an HC in Denver and everyone knows he is a bad HC and this discussion is about him being an OC in his time with the Pats...also, since when has McDaniels been given credit for drafting players on the Patriots pre-Vrabel? That was Bill's show and everyone knows it...I don't remember his name ever being involved in the Patriots draft process outside of the occasional college visit...no way should he be getting any of the dirt from BB's misses especially since these misses pretty much remained misses on other teams...IMO McDaniels has gotten the most out of Patriot offensive players while he has been there.
 
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I value what @Anarchy99 has said here because you have posted a lot of insightful details about the Pats and are an example of why this board is great. You know significantly more about the Patriots than I ever will.

However, playing devil's advocate... Henderson looked every bit as explosive as I expected. The New England oline being bad actually fits into the argument that Henderson would get some play on the outside. He has the receiving skillset to make that offensive line not matter as much. If your QB is getting pressured often or you cant run between the tackles... it makes sense to scheme quick hitters, in space, to your most explosive player and that is Henderson by a lot.

Stevenson isn't a JAG, but he doesn't have near the player profile Henderson does. I am, admittedly, very high on Henderson. I was high on Achane, still am. I took him way higher than consensus (14th pick in rookie draft, I believe) - I was high on Gibbs (couldn't trade up to grab him). I really don't know who I like better Henderson or Jeanty... so, I am a big fan.

Henderson doesn't need 250 carries to be an RB2. I want him in my redraft leagues but I fear his ADP will rise to a point it doesnt make sense. Henderson in the 5th/6th round is a smash for me. He doesn't have a lot of competition for targets and a house call threat anytime he has the rock. Whatever McDaniel's history has been with all other RBs is worth noting but it will be difficult to keep him off the field as the season progresses.

ETA: Miami's offensive line is pretty horrendous too and it doesnt seem to matter to an undersized, injury risk like Achane.
 
I took Henderson in a PPR redraft league with the 4.5 pick. That's over James Cook, Kamara and Walker. He is clearly the most explosive player on the team, regardless of position. Any coach that wants to win and have a long tenure is going to make sure he utilizes his best players. And as others have said, a shaky o-line only further separates him from Stevenson. I think he and Maye are going to have a BIG year together. :drive:
 
Mike Clay, who is one of the better projectors out there has a 214-195 rushing split for Henderson/Stevenson, and this is before his night yesterday. I settled for 50/50.

He also has him with 56 targets, 43 receptions, which I will say seems low.
 
Anarchy99 said:
SeniorVBDStudent said:
His comp is a cross between muscle hampster and james white. mcdaniels coaching this machine could be lethal.
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I'm not looking to start a holy war and launch another round of The Crusades . . . certainly not with you. But was there something about McDaniels without Brady that would indicate he could be "lethal?" Because the numbers just don't back it up.
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fair. however (a) can you point to a similar to white talent mcdaniels has had outside the brady era, and (b) I know. I'm just fetishizing.
 
Boston said:
this discussion is about him being an OC in his time with the Pats
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Fair, but there are some very notable differences between his OC setup then and now. I lean towards the idea that Josh McD has done nothing notable at any point in his career sans a certain GOAT QB. And that doesn't even mention Jelly Belly b/c in other fairness Vrabel may be a decent proxy.

All of the above aside, I luv Henderson the player. Kid is sick and definitely levels above whatever it is you guys are referring to as RHam.
 
Anarchy99 said:
Here are my observations. If people want to disregard them, so be it. I generally consider 20 year trends and recent full seasons more than a single preseason game, so that will tell you where I am headed. IMO, Stevenson is not a JAG. And McDaniels drafted him. (BTW, this is not a knock or a slight of Henderson in any way, shape, or form.)

Last year, Stephenson ranked 6th in the league in % of yards after contact and 9th overall in total YAC. At one point almost in the season last year, he had more yards after contact than he did total rushing yards. He was getting hit in the backfield nearly 50% of the time. That's not a Rhamondre problem. That's an OL problem.

In 2022, Stevenson put up these rankings:
3rd in % of yards after contact, 4th in total yards after contact, 3rd in RB receptions, 8th in missed tackle rate, 6th in 10 yard rushing rate, 6th in expected yards per carry, and was ranked by PFF as the 4th best RB that season. He's currently the 7th highest paid RB in the league in contract AAV.

Then the OL ranked 32nd in run block win rate in 2023 and 31st in 2024.

Looking back at 20 years of McDaniels as a OC or HC, there were 2 times when he drafted a first round RB to be the guy immediately as there was no incumbent RB: Moreno and Michel. The other time he drafted a first round RB was Maroney, but he was getting groomed to take over for a 32 year old Dillon. When his team's already had an established RB, the rookie backs didn't do that much.

When Stevenson was drafted, NE already had Damien Harris (remember him?). When Harris was healthy, Stevenson averaged 8.6 caries and 1.1 receptions a game as a rookie. The Pats had multiple players that WENT ON to do well, but not as rookies: Green-Ellis, Ridley, Vereen, White, DHarris, and Stevenson. Most of them barely even got on the field their first year. The most receptions by a rookie RB with McDaniels was Moreno . . . with 28.

As for McDaniels, IMO, he has been the one that's the JAG. Without Brady, he's predominantly struggled and been a Bottom 10 OC. But that's a different topic. In the 4 times he took over an offense 06 Pats, 09 Broncs, 11 Rams, and 22 Raiders), those teams had a net -28 points cored and -408 yards of offense compared to the prior season. He's not a quick turn specialist, and he has been a rookie escalator at any skill position.

Could Henderson be talented enough to be a market disrupter here? Sure. I'm just not sure a kickoff return TD in a preseason game is proof positive of that. In Stevenson's first preseason game as a rookie, he averaged 12.7 ypc and scored 2 TDs. Preseason games aren't usually indicative of much of anything.

The point in all of this is, the OL is the driver of RB success here, and if Stevenson or Henderson is going to be productive, the OL will have to play way better. Because Henderson will be stuck in the same mud as Stevenson was if its not.
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It's definitely fair to throw some water on the fire here. Preseason production means nothing. He did look faster on the field than he tested so that was good, but an 18 yard run and a kickoff return through frankly a pretty big hole don't mean much.

That said, I think it all depends on the way we look at things.

The only three RBs McDaniels has drafted this highly (Maroney, Michel, Moreno) all got 200+ touches as rookies even though the two former didn't even play a full season that year. All were on pace for 250+ total touches (17 game season pace) before missing a couple games.

Disqualifying Maroney because of Dillon is also unfair because Dillon was still with the team and played a significant role in Maroney's rookie year, but Maroney still got 200 touches (and on pace for 250 before getting hurt). Stevenson is likely no more of a long-term threat to Henderson than an aging Dillon, as Stevenson has clearly lost trust and likely is not intended to get more work than an aging Dillon did. They obviously massively overpaid in his extension and will be looking to get out of that deal when they can, and the contract seems fairly cut-friendly (I believe they can save $4.5M by cutting him after this season).

So yes, we have 20 years of history and in those 20 years thrice has McDaniels had a back with this kind of draft capital, and in all 3 cases he used them extensively in their rookie season.

Yes Stevenson will play a role this year, but it won't necessarily limit Henderson from getting the 200-250 touches that most people would consider about right for him.

And FWIW, I will take the over on number of receptions from a rookie under McDaniels being broken.
 
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LawFitz said:
Boston said:
this discussion is about him being an OC in his time with the Pats
Click to expand...

Fair, but there are some very notable differences between his OC setup then and now. I lean towards the idea that Josh McD has done nothing notable at any point in his career sans a certain GOAT QB. And that doesn't even mention Jelly Belly b/c in other fairness Vrabel may be a decent proxy.

All of the above aside, I luv Henderson the player. Kid is sick and definitely levels above whatever it is you guys are referring to as RHam.
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He did an excellent job with Cam and Mac Jones (and very limited weapons both of those years) in the two years post-Brady and was stellar with Matt Cassel the year Brady was hurt...it is very easy to ding him because he had Brady (which I understand) but he had Brady's full confidence and he rose to the occasion in the three years with the Pats without Brady...his work with Mac Jones as a rookie was very impressive and I don't think anyone could have squeezed more out of a broken-down Cam Newton the year before.
 
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