RB Trey Sermon, IND (2 Viewers)

[rockaction]

Things will brighten up when Mitchell inevitably gets hurt

...until the 49ers sign a backup kicker off a practice squad and convert him into their new RB1

-QG

This is the post I'm paying the most attention to in this thread because it's likely the most accurate.

ilov and Trip doing good work in here, too. The real thing is that the situation is so fluid that nobody knows. Sometimes we just don't know because the team itself doesn't know.

Mitchell tested extraordinarily well out of college and his highlights are excellent. Him rushing for a hundred yards in a pro game and being ahead of Sermon is shocking to absolutely nobody who paid attention to the entirety of their dynasty drafts.

Sermon being traded up for and his last three games as OSU are something to consider, too, as Trip points out. ilov pointing out his entire body of work is more than fair.

Cannon, like Dr. Octopus points out, is probably signed for special team duties.

 

[Eights]

I am not buying into the panic, yes I own him in Dynasty: I'm certainly not about to jump ship after week one.  We all knew Mostert wouldn't last long which is why many of us took a flyer on Sermon.

Shanny is not about to tip his hand period, I say Sermon got in the dog house, whether the curfew story is accurate or not, and now it's a prove it to me and earn it motivation tactic.

Hold on Sermon all!

 

[jtd13]

now it's a prove it to me and earn it motivation tactic.

A Shannahan benching a RB as a ploy to motivate, you say?

 

[rockaction]

I think everybody who drafted him in the first round is holding. I think we're talking redraft regarding whether or not you hold. To dump in dynasty is for players who have no intention of sticking around with their teams, clearly stated. I'm not sure how many of you do that, but nobody is dumping in dynasty.

 

[Eights]

A Shannahan benching a RB as a ploy to motivate, you say?

I say if the curfew story is factual then yes.  This came out of left field, no indication that Sermon was not the number 2 back before the week 1 game.

 

[jtd13]

I say if the curfew story is factual then yes.  This came out of left field, no indication that Sermon was not the number 2 back before the week 1 game.

Sorry, just trying a new twist on an old joke on this board (it's a ).

But FYI, the curfew story all comes from This tweet, which was posted as a joke on Sunday. 

 

[jtd13]

Sorry, just trying a new twist on an old joke on this board (it's a ).

But FYI, the curfew story all comes from This tweet, which was posted as a joke on Sunday. 

Apparently "ploy to motivate Tatum Bel" corrects to

Nice Easter egg @Joe Bryant!

 

[jtd13]

I say if the curfew story is factual then yes.  This came out of left field, no indication that Sermon was not the number 2 back before the week 1 game.

Jokes aside. I agree that Sermon is a hold. It was pretty bizarre that he was an inactive on short notice after getting mostly work with the ones while Mostert rested in camp (lotta good that did, btw).

Maybe it was that Kyle didn't like Sermon's effort on special teams or something, and wanted to send a message. Or maybe Mitchell simply passed him up. We'll hopefully know soon enough, but I definitely don't think anyone knows now. 

 

[H8fulHuck]

Possibly the sharkiest buy low opportunity we will find in 2021. Can acquire Sermon for a limited upside flex player due to FUD

Yes. Sermon was inactive week 1. Shanny only wanted to slot 3 active RB spaces and Hasty & Mitchell were on special teams.
Rebutt says the RB only participated in 4 special teams plays combined. Well Duh…the primary RB got injured on the 2nd drive of the game.

Going into week 1, Sermon was listed as #2 on the depth chart. In practice consistently the 2nd man up when Mostert  comes off the field.  This says more than coach speak to the press. Are we to believe that performance by Mitchell was enough to demote Trey? Before you post a reply, check the PFF ratings. He performed okay running the ball with a superior line and poor defensive play. Just don’t ask him to protect your QB. 

Trey made the roster as a pure running back. No additional value of being a special teamer. Mitchell needed to be a special teams guy to make the squad.

My takes…

1 Sermon has the best shot of becoming “the guy” as long as he’s healthy and stays out of the dog house. 

2 Shanny is getting his rocks off playing mind games with Fantasy HandEgg players. 

 

[SoBeDad]

Possibly the sharkiest buy low opportunity we will find in 2021. Can acquire Sermon for a limited upside flex player due to FUD

Yes. Sermon was inactive week 1. Shanny only wanted to slot 3 active RB spaces and Hasty & Mitchell were on special teams.
Rebutt says the RB only participated in 4 special teams plays combined. Well Duh…the primary RB got injured on the 2nd drive of the game.

Going into week 1, Sermon was listed as #2 on the depth chart. In practice consistently the 2nd man up when Mostert  comes off the field.  This says more than coach speak to the press. Are we to believe that performance by Mitchell was enough to demote Trey? Before you post a reply, check the PFF ratings. He performed okay running the ball with a superior line and poor defensive play. Just don’t ask him to protect your QB. 

Trey made the roster as a pure running back. No additional value of being a special teamer. Mitchell needed to be a special teams guy to make the squad.

My takes…

1 Sermon has the best shot of becoming “the guy” as long as he’s healthy and stays out of the dog house. 

2 Shanny is getting his rocks off playing mind games with Fantasy HandEgg players. 

I don't think Sermon makes that 38 yard TD run. And Mitchell broke tackles on several other runs. I think that's more ok. I'm not sure what pff downgraded for Mitchell for run plays. 

That said, Sermon is the more "complete" back, and should get some chances. 

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Anyone have the rocks to start him this weekend?  I mean my options aren't great, OK.

 

[VikingFrog]

Possibly the sharkiest buy low opportunity we will find in 2021. Can acquire Sermon for a limited upside flex player due to FUD

Yes. Sermon was inactive week 1. Shanny only wanted to slot 3 active RB spaces and Hasty & Mitchell were on special teams.
Rebutt says the RB only participated in 4 special teams plays combined. Well Duh…the primary RB got injured on the 2nd drive of the game.

Going into week 1, Sermon was listed as #2 on the depth chart. In practice consistently the 2nd man up when Mostert  comes off the field.  This says more than coach speak to the press. Are we to believe that performance by Mitchell was enough to demote Trey? Before you post a reply, check the PFF ratings. He performed okay running the ball with a superior line and poor defensive play. Just don’t ask him to protect your QB. 

Trey made the roster as a pure running back. No additional value of being a special teamer. Mitchell needed to be a special teams guy to make the squad.

My takes…

1 Sermon has the best shot of becoming “the guy” as long as he’s healthy and stays out of the dog house. 

2 Shanny is getting his rocks off playing mind games with Fantasy HandEgg players. 

Sadly I already own him in all 3 leagues.

 

[VikingFrog]

Anyone have the rocks to start him this weekend?  I mean my options aren't great, OK.

It’s between him and Aiyuk.

 

[rockaction]

It’s between him and Aiyuk.

You spend enough time on these boards, you'll run into somebody with the magic combination.

Good work, VikingFrog. You win.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Oh yeah definitely holding.

It would be insanity to dump or trade away Sermon right now. I think the odds for the season favor a Mitchell / Sermon timeshare with both being useful #2 RBs.

 

[JohnnyU]

Shanny is getting his rocks off playing mind games with Fantasy HandEgg players. 

He may be one of fantasy’s worst enemies, but I don’t think cares squat about fantasy football one way or the other.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Anyone have the rocks to start him this weekend?  I mean my options aren't great, OK.

I had him slated as a flex in my dynasty league, but I switched him out to Jonnu Smith. I'd rather get 10 points than see a Sermon fumble lead to a -2.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Sadly I already own him in all 3 leagues.

I own Sermon in all three of my dynasty leagues. While week one sucked, I still am fine with Sermon's talent and his overall worth. 

 

[Helaire-ious]

I own Sermon in all three of my dynasty leagues. While week one sucked, I still am fine with Sermon's talent and his overall worth. 

+1

 

[VikingFrog]

I own Sermon in all three of my dynasty leagues. While week one sucked, I still am fine with Sermon's talent and his overall worth. 

Yeah. I only play redraft so it’s been a painful week as I sit and play “what-if” on the draft board if I look at WRs. But really there’s not much I’m missing out on yet if I look only at RBs, which I was dead set in picking from that spot. 
 

We have short benches and I’m still holding. The NFL moves pretty quick.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Yeah. I only play redraft so it’s been a painful week as I sit and play “what-if” on the draft board if I look at WRs. But really there’s not much I’m missing out on yet if I look only at RBs, which I was dead set in picking from that spot. 
 

We have short benches and I’m still holding. The NFL moves pretty quick.

I think there's hope for Sermon, even in redraft. This feels like Shannahan motivating a talented rookie. 

 

[VikingFrog]

Matt Barrows (San Fran best reporter) has interesting things to say from McDaniel saying Sermon is looking pretty aggressive this week.

It’s a paid Atlantic article, so I’m not going to post the pull quote as that doesn’t seem cool to another form of subscribed content. But the mentions in here of coaches trying to light a fire could have some merit reading what they are saying.

https://theathletic.com/2830983/2021/09/16/why-trey-lance-might-be-more-important-to-the-49ers-midweek-than-on-sunday/

If anything, it’s sure to make those 100% FAAB Mitchell buyers buttcheeks clinch a little bit.

 

[QuizGuy66]

A Shannahan benching a RB as a ploy to motivate, you say?

Foreshadowing the week 17 starting RB....or should I say TB?

-QG

 

[barackdhouse]

It would be insanity to dump or trade away Sermon right now. I think the odds for the season favor a Mitchell / Sermon timeshare with both being useful #2 RBs.

That is all I was hoping for anyway. 

 

[barackdhouse]

He may be one of fantasy’s worst enemies, but I don’t think cares squat about fantasy football one way or the other.

It doesn't influence his decision making one bit. At all. But he absolutely gets off on knowing it drives us mad. He knows.

 

[Johnny Utah #9]

Matt Barrows (San Fran best reporter) has interesting things to say from McDaniel saying Sermon is looking pretty aggressive this week.

It’s a paid Atlantic article, so I’m not going to post the pull quote as that doesn’t seem cool to another form of subscribed content. But the mentions in here of coaches trying to light a fire could have some merit reading what they are saying.

https://theathletic.com/2830983/2021/09/16/why-trey-lance-might-be-more-important-to-the-49ers-midweek-than-on-sunday/

If anything, it’s sure to make those 100% FAAB Mitchell buyers buttcheeks clinch a little bit.

Full quote: McDaniel said there was an “extra aggressiveness” from Sermon in practice this week in response to game day status against the Lions.

“So what that told me is, ‘Hey, I didn’t like not dressing. I want to play football. So how do I do that? I don’t go and talk to people. I show people,'” McDaniel said. “That’s kind of the common denominator. Kyle always says to the players and coaches, ‘Don’t tell me, show me.’ And (Sermon) showed, I think, all of us that he really wants an opportunity, which he’ll get this Sunday.”

EDIT: Reported for The Athletic

Sounds like rumors of Sermon’s fantasy death are greatly exaggerated.

 

[LawFitz]

I almost dropped Tony Jones for now FA Sermon, but then I watched their preseason (and in Jones' case week 1) highlights and decided nah.

I was a huge college Trey Sermon fan. I thought he had all the tools, but now think he's missing one of the most important - short area NFL burst. Chris Carson types can get away without it. And Sermon may be that. But those guys also typically end up in the trainer's room after a few weeks.

Players also grow. I'm basing this on preseason rookie Sermon. He may be MUCH better after a year or two of NFL training. I hope I am wrong, or maybe not, depending on who in my league picks him up tonight off waivers.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Anyone have the rocks to start him this weekend?  I mean my options aren't great, OK.

Starting him.  I think.  Over James Conner and Damien Williams for reference.  

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

I currently have him starting in the FFPC over Jacobs and Conner

 

[nittanylion]

I almost dropped Tony Jones for now FA Sermon, but then I watched their preseason (and in Jones' case week 1) highlights and decided nah.

I was a huge college Trey Sermon fan. I thought he had all the tools, but now think he's missing one of the most important - short area NFL burst. Chris Carson types can get away without it. And Sermon may be that. But those guys also typically end up in the trainer's room after a few weeks.

Players also grow. I'm basing this on preseason rookie Sermon. He may be MUCH better after a year or two of NFL training. I hope I am wrong, or maybe not, depending on who in my league picks him up tonight off waivers.

You must have some Roster to have to make a decision between cutting Jones and adding Sermon. You must have had something else churning around at the bottom you could have let go, to bring the potential Sermon brings to the table, on board.

 

[Johnny Utah #9]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JMoyerFB/status/1438646191160393731?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1438646191160393731|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fedge-forums.nbcsports.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FJMoyerFB%2Fstatus%2F1438646191160393731%3Fs%3D19

Some interesting film breakdown of how Michell struggles to recognize leverage and preform cutbacks. While no one would deny the kid as top end speed, he hasn’t shown a talent at reading a defense. 

 

[cloppbeast]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JMoyerFB/status/1438646191160393731?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1438646191160393731|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fedge-forums.nbcsports.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FJMoyerFB%2Fstatus%2F1438646191160393731%3Fs%3D19

Some interesting film breakdown of how Michell struggles to recognize leverage and preform cutbacks. While no one would deny the kid as top end speed, he hasn’t shown a talent at reading a defense. 

This is some hyper-critical stuff if I've ever seen it.

This last play in the clip Mitchell finds the cutback, but not fast enough for the critic, who complains about the rb taking "5 steps to turn around".  Probably why Mitchell misses the slivers of daylight which appear in slow-motion replay, also known as physics.

 

[jurrassic]

Everyone has their own opinion and roster needs, but some of the Sermon dismissiveness is just silly to me. This is a 3rd round rookie, who is really only competing with a 6th round rookie for playing time, on a team that consistently ranks in the top 3 in rushing every year, with a top 3 easiest run schedule. Since Shanahan became the coach of the 49ers, he has consistently split carries amongst his backs. Look at the box scores. Even in games were they were limited by injuries, that required him to go with the bellcow approach, and those backs performed, he went back to the committee approach. 15 carries on this offense can produce the equivalent of 25 carries on most other offenses. To make such definitive broad sweeping generalizations, after one week seems absurd to me. Mitchell and Sermon can be both productive together. 

 

[VikingFrog]

Everyone has their own opinion and roster needs, but some of the Sermon dismissiveness is just silly to me. This is a 3rd round rookie, who is really only competing with a 6th round rookie for playing time, on team that consistently ranks in the top 3 in rushing every year, with a top 3 easiest run schedule. Since Shanahan became the coach of the 49ers, he has consistently split carries amongst his backs. Look at the box scores. Even in games were they were limited by injuries, that required him to go with the bellcow approach, and those backs performed, he went back to the committee approach. 15 carries on this offense can produce the equivalent of 25 carries on most other offenses. To make such definitive broad sweeping generalizations, after one week seems absurd to me. Mitchell and Sermon can be both productive together. 

This exactly.

Last Sunday before the world found out he was inactive, Sermon was projected to score 10+ points in non-ppr yahoo projections. That was behind a healthy Mostert. He was in my lineup with ease and I’m sure he was in many other lineups. 
 

Having said that, this Sunday will still be interesting to see how it unfolds, but the plan was to run Mostert as the 1 and Mitchell/Sermon as the 2 all year. With the 2 producing as well.

Now we’re assumedly running Mitchell as the 1 and Sermon as the 2 and nothing changes for the season long outlook that we all had on Sunday morning. With the chance for one of these guys to earn more carries and the trust of the coaching staff. Mitchell is the current leader in the clubhouse but the NFL moves fast and things can change quickly.

 

[Faust]

49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniels said RB Trey Sermon will be active for Week 2 against the Eagles. 

McDaniels said Sermon displayed "extra aggressiveness" in practice this week after being a shocking healthy scratch in Week 1 against Detroit. "Kyle [Shanahan] always says to the players and coaches, ‘Don’t tell me, show me.’ And (Sermon) showed, I think, all of us that he really wants an opportunity, which he’ll get this Sunday," McDaniels said. Sermon apparently did enough to exit Shanahan's cavernous doghouse, though he'll likely play behind Elijah Mitchell a week after Mitchell rushed 19 times for 104 yards and a touchdown. Raheem Mostert out with a knee injury opens a narrow path for Sermon to see touches in the coming weeks. He should be stashed in 12-team leagues. 

RELATED: 

Elijah Mitchell

SOURCE: The Athletic 

Sep 17, 2021, 10:57 AM ET

 

[Scooby1974]

Just cleared waivers this morning and I snagged him. Hoping he gets some run in Philthy on Sunday.

 

[tombonneau]

Not even week 2 and we're at 11 pages. What was the Tatum Bell thread at when it died? 

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Not even week 2 and we're at 11 pages. What was the Tatum Bell thread at when it died? 

About 1/8 the size of the Christine Michael thread when it died

 

[Scooby1974]

Not even week 2 and we're at 11 pages. What was the Tatum Bell thread at when it died? 

Guess this is what happens when the starter goes down, the studly looking rookie doesn't even dress for the first game, and the 6th rounder goes for 100 on a Super Bowl contenting team.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

About 1/8 the size of the Christine Michael thread when it died

Beat me to it

 

[Payne]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JMoyerFB/status/1438646191160393731?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1438646191160393731|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fedge-forums.nbcsports.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FJMoyerFB%2Fstatus%2F1438646191160393731%3Fs%3D19

Some interesting film breakdown of how Michell struggles to recognize leverage and preform cutbacks. While no one would deny the kid as top end speed, he hasn’t shown a talent at reading a defense. 

Some big holes. Even I can gain 4 yards. 

 

[JoeJoe88]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JMoyerFB/status/1438646191160393731?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1438646191160393731|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fedge-forums.nbcsports.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FJMoyerFB%2Fstatus%2F1438646191160393731%3Fs%3D19

Some interesting film breakdown of how Michell struggles to recognize leverage and preform cutbacks. While no one would deny the kid as top end speed, he hasn’t shown a talent at reading a defense. 

No offense, but this “analysis” is hot garbage. 

 

[Chaka]

Everyone has their own opinion and roster needs, but some of the Sermon dismissiveness is just silly to me. This is a 3rd round rookie, who is really only competing with a 6th round rookie for playing time, on a team that consistently ranks in the top 3 in rushing every year, with a top 3 easiest run schedule. Since Shanahan became the coach of the 49ers, he has consistently split carries amongst his backs. Look at the box scores. Even in games were they were limited by injuries, that required him to go with the bellcow approach, and those backs performed, he went back to the committee approach. 15 carries on this offense can produce the equivalent of 25 carries on most other offenses. To make such definitive broad sweeping generalizations, after one week seems absurd to me. Mitchell and Sermon can be both productive together. 

They have had one top 3 finish under Shanahan.

2017 - 22nd in attempts, 21st in yards, 7th in TDs

2018 - 11th att, 13th yds, 30th TDs

2019 - 2nd att, 2nd yds, 1st TDs

2020 - 14th, 15th, 10th

 

[tombonneau]

About 1/8 the size of the Christine Michael thread when it died

TBF the CM thread only went so far because it was shot out of a cannon. 

 

[chinawildman]

I almost dropped Tony Jones for now FA Sermon, but then I watched their preseason (and in Jones' case week 1) highlights and decided nah.

I was a huge college Trey Sermon fan. I thought he had all the tools, but now think he's missing one of the most important - short area NFL burst. Chris Carson types can get away without it. And Sermon may be that. But those guys also typically end up in the trainer's room after a few weeks.

Players also grow. I'm basing this on preseason rookie Sermon. He may be MUCH better after a year or two of NFL training. I hope I am wrong, or maybe not, depending on who in my league picks him up tonight off waivers.

I had the same observation, his acceleration through the hole was non-existent in preseason action. The lateral agility is there but that isn't really a trait that a Shanny style back needs or is ever desired. On almost half his runs he made some kind of cut before reaching the LOS and that's a no-no in Shanny's scheme. Hasty also suffers from the same lack of commitment as well despite being an explosive back.

 

[jurrassic]

They have had one top 3 finish under Shanahan.

2017 - 22nd in attempts, 21st in yards, 7th in TDs

2018 - 11th att, 13th yds, 30th TDs

2019 - 2nd att, 2nd yds, 1st TDs

2020 - 14th, 15th, 10th

There is always one. It was more of a generalization to define sentiment. Those rushing numbers also factor in qb runs, which skew the stats for a few teams. They had a rb qualify as a rb2 in 11 of 16 weeks last year. That was with all of the injuries, and less playing from ahead. I do appreciate your internet sleuthing. Thanks for the technical correction.

All of that aside, the reason people have been debating Sermon for 11 pages and spending all of their FAAB on Mitchell is because, collectively, everyone agrees this is one of the top rushing offenses in the league. No one is debating Ingram or David Johnson and the Texans ran 41 times last week. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I hope Sermon dominates carries & plays his butt off.

Signed,

Niners fan, and also guy playing against the dude who claimed Mitchell this week. 

 

[Scooby1974]

I hope Sermon dominates carries & plays his butt off.

Signed,

Niners fan, and also guy playing against the dude who claimed Mitchell this week. 

Yessssss! Go Niners. I live near Philly and I don't want to hear about an upset win for the next year.

 

[Jail]

Full quote: McDaniel said there was an “extra aggressiveness” from Sermon in practice this week in response to game day status against the Lions.

“So what that told me is, ‘Hey, I didn’t like not dressing. I want to play football. So how do I do that? I don’t go and talk to people. I show people,'” McDaniel said. “That’s kind of the common denominator. Kyle always says to the players and coaches, ‘Don’t tell me, show me.’ And (Sermon) showed, I think, all of us that he really wants an opportunity, which he’ll get this Sunday.”

EDIT: Reported for The Athletic

Sounds like rumors of Sermon’s fantasy death are greatly exaggerated.

It's funny because all Sunday I was doing a lot of the rationalizations that were flying around about it being a mind game on Shanahan's part.  Then when he came out and gave his explanation for the benching it sounded like his genuine thoughts.  Now that I read the McDaniel quotes I am right back to thinking it's a mind game.  Uhhg.

Shanahan is truly evil.  What was the nickname we used to give his dad? Didn't he have some kind of villain nickname?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Shanahan is truly evil.  What was the nickname we used to give his dad? Didn't he have some kind of villain nickname?

my raiders fan friends used to call him Skeletor