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RB Trey Sermon, IND (1 Viewer)

Payne said:
He didn't look great, but neither did Taylor on his 10 carries.

What concerns me is the playcalling was different. It was like the Niners didn't even want to try and run the ball. Could have been the game plan going in or they simply don't trust Sermon. Last week Mitchell looked worse and they still fed him the ball.  
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Indy would do well to give Taylor more touches.  Not a Taylor owner.

 
I am surprised that so many people think he looked terrible.  The results weren't good but I thought that had more to do with GB dominating the trenches.  99% of the time Sermon got the ball he was already being hit and he made the first guy miss every time.  Obviously he wasn't trusted from the start as he wasn't getting many early touches but SF couldn't do anything offensively as GB dominated.

As the game went along Sermon got more usage and results got better.  He looked good in pass protection and had a couple nice blitz pickups.  His TD run was nice as he had to avoid yet another defender in the backfield.  

Sermon didn't blow everyone away but I think it was a solid first opportunity that should have gained some trust from the coaching staff.  I definitely wouldn't be selling at this point. 

 
Sample size was small, but some of what I saw was encouraging. Also, one has to remember he just got smoked last week on a nasty hit. His blitz pick up to save Jimmy G on one play especially, has to be seen as a big positive. He did lack some explosiveness, but he made some defenders miss which was encouraging. The blocking in front of him was bad for most of his runs. Biggest negative plays were his last run, when he had a crease inside, but stayed outside instead, and he dropped an easy catch early on. 

He's a hold for at least one more week in redraft to see what happens against Seattle. I would hold longer for keeper. Biggest road block might be the coaching staff's assessment going forward. 

 
tigerz said:
Still too early to give up. Everyone always thinks 3 weeks into the season is enough to cast off a player for the rest of the season. However, it's the guy's first game and they weren't even certain he would start for this game until late in the week so I do think it is understandable that they schemed more Juice and Deebo in case he wasn't able to suit up.

Starting the guy with confidence next week forward? No. But there is a middle ground, especially for growing rookie players. Think you stash and wait for situation to clear up. It's not like you have that many high upside options at RB this year.
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I think most folks agree with you. I’d be surprised if anyone cut him at this point. But it just wasn’t an impressive start.

 
The Dude said:
My only point is that it was likely that sermon had not corrected whatever made him inactive two weeks ago - and shanty wasn’t likely to turn over the keys.

so the disciplinary issue likely remains - whether it’s lack of effort, lack of knowing the playbook, or whatever.
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I think we're reading too much into this by trying to see the week 1 move as disciplinary.  The fact that Collinsworth brought up the coach comments about trying to get him to just make that one cut and go says a lot. 

Just my opinion obviously,  but I read the situation as making him inactive because he wasn't reading what he was supposed to.  Then in practice the RB coach says he was making improvements the next week, but doing that in game is a different story.  So they stuck with Mitchell. I think Shanahan just didn't trust him yet. I would think he showed enough to get some carries when Mitchell returns,  but as others mentioned he just looked "ok." He did have a couple good runs that showed his upside.  Unless I'm desperate I know I won't start him until he shows more.  Hopefully he gets there.  If not,  I won't be surprised to see Wilson end up the starter once he is healthy. 

 
Adso said:
Trey Sermon FULL Highlights Vs Packers (Every Play) | Niners Vs Packers Week 3
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Thought he looked better in these clips than I've seen from him at any point with the 9ers. He's running decisive and hard all of a sudden, compared to the preseason tape. Shanny seems to have lit a fire.

That said, his blocking in this game was gawd awful. What happened to the vaunted 9ers OL? Have they been this bad for a while and I missed it? Even the most elite of backs would struggle with the blocking in these clips.

 
Adso said:
Trey Sermon FULL Highlights Vs Packers (Every Play) | Niners Vs Packers Week 3
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Some nice runs and some glaring examples of not making one cut and hitting the hole. He seems to stutter a lot while trying to figure out which hole to hit. That's gotta drive Shanahan nuts.

Still he looks to run hard, fall forward and have better than average suddenness. Seems that he could be great in this system if he was simply a little more confident identifying the gap and attacking it.

 
jdoggydogg said:
I don't know that we can evaluate Sermon when Garoppolo is the quarterback. Garoppolo is terrible. Awful. 
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Wouldn't that make more sense if all the Niner RBs looked bad while Garappolo has been the QB?

And if the team wasn't 7-27 without him but 24-9 with him?

67.5% completions, 8.3 y/a yadda yadda yadda

By what metric is he terrible? Durability? 

 
Jacob Gibbs @jagibbs_23

Trey Sermon scored a TD, but his usage was far from encouraging last night.

- Zero third down passing snaps

- 3 of 16 snaps from the 2 minute drill

- Only on the field for 30% of red zone snaps

In a game with no other options, SF still would not choose Sermon on important plays
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https://twitter.com/jagibbs_23/status/1442588421600333827

Now he was in the concussion protocol so he couldn't practice as much, but yeah not encouraging.

 
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jtd13 said:
After 3 weeks, it seems like Jeff Wilson might be the most valuable niners RB ROS. 
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Such a disappointment. Hope Sermon figures out the things that Shanahan doesn't like about his game but that seems like something that is more likely to happen in the off-season...if ever.

 
Watched the game, he definitely looked better as the game went on and looked better in the highlights than I remembered.

I'm holding for one more week. Tried to sell him for gaskin but Mike Clay would have needed to bump his projection to 13ppr points for Gaskin's owner to jump ship. I need another RB like you read about. I'm 5th on waivers so no way I get Chuba.

If he's behind Mitchell by more than 40/60 on snaps and behind Juice in carries, I'm probably out of patience. Bye weeks hit me hard in week 6 and I need to start prepping for that. 

 
Instinctive said:
I see 4 carries where he isn't hit by at least one guy in the backfield. On all four the play was a success - a big gain, a short yardage conversion, the TD, and a 5-yarder.

I like it.
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The flip side is maybe the reason the Packers camped in the Niners backfield on so many Sermon runs is because they know when Sermon is in the game it's going to be a run.

 
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I  not trying to be intentionally hard on Sermon, I drafted him as my RB3 and have a very vested interest in seeing him succeed.

But there are a lot of red flags. Far too many to ignore.

He's still a hold but he's trending towards the top of my WW churn list.

 
This isn't the 2019 Niners.

2021 Niners don't have a dominating D nor a top rushing attack. On top of that, it seems that opposing D's have figured out that Jimmy (be it skill and/or Kyle's play calling) thrives with short passes and a run game. D's are moving closer to the LOS and DARING Jim to pass it, and he can't...won't? Sunday Night, Green Bay's safeties were playing 10 yards from the LOS! That's just nuts.

Jim's yardage comes largely on the back of Kittle and the WR's who get YAC yards. The running game seems to be nonexistent even with an revamped line. Some has to be due to facing some good defensive fronts, but some is also due to the play calling. But what comes first, the play calling or the QB's skill? Kyle can't call plays that his QB can't make, so if you look at all the evidence you see tons of short throws and a few mid range throws up the middle of the field in the 10-15 yard range and barely any mid length tosses outside the hashes.

Until the passing game gets figured out and the D's are forced to respect it, I'm afraid the SF running game is going to have a  rough time. I know if I was a Defensive coach playing SF, I'd be MAKING Jimmy G throw the ball 10+ yards downfield.

 
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Chaka said:
The flip side is maybe the reason the Packers camped in the Niners backfield on so many Sermon runs is because they know when Sermon is in the game it's going to be a run.
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I mean I'm sure that's part of it. But nobody else got much space. 

Bottom line: this is more opportunity than I expected this early. I'll judge Sermon's value based on like week 8 onward. I'm hopeful based on what I see.

Seems like Waldman is too, from today's Top 10. 

 
Scooby1974 said:
This isn't the 2019 Niners.

2021 Niners don't have a dominating D nor a top rushing attack. On top of that, it seems that opposing D's have figured out that Jimmy (be it skill and/or Kyle's play calling) thrives with short passes and a run game. D's are moving closer to the LOS and DARING Jim to pass it, and he can't...won't? Sunday Night, Green Bay's safeties were playing 10 yards from the LOS! That's just nuts.

Jim's yardage comes largely on the back of Kittle and the WR's who get YAC yards. The running game seems to be nonexistent even with an revamped line. Some has to be due to facing some good defensive fronts, but some is also due to the play calling. But what comes first, the play calling or the QB's skill? Kyle can't call plays that his QB can't make, so if you look at all the evidence you see tons of short throws and a few mid range throws up the middle of the field in the 10-15 yard range and barely any mid length tosses outside the hashes.

Until the passing game gets figured out and the D's are forced to respect it, I'm afraid the SF running game is going to have a  rough time. I know if I was a Defensive coach playing SF, I'd be MAKING Jimmy G throw the ball 10+ yards downfield.
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This post is spot on. It very well may end up that chasing this 49er backfield this year is a fool's errand. The run blocking has left a lot to be desired. And their defense isn't going to help them get in positive game scripts, especially vs. their NFC West Rivals. Wilson, Murray, and Stafford will carve them up.

As a Sermon owner, I'm holding for now, but this idea that we get a reliably startable player from this backfield just might not be in the cards this year. As long as Jimmy G is in there, I don't see it happening. 

 
Instinctive said:
I mean I'm sure that's part of it. But nobody else got much space. 

Bottom line: this is more opportunity than I expected this early. I'll judge Sermon's value based on like week 8 onward. I'm hopeful based on what I see.

Seems like Waldman is too, from today's Top 10. 
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This is the way I see it too.  I always thought we would have to wait until half way to see him do anything.  So what he is doing now is much better from the opportunity side then people were thinking.  

The downside is SF looks like they might be a lot worse then what people were expecting and the run game could be useless no matter who is running.

 
it took Jonathan Taylor half a season to understand how to run in the NFL...Sermon is going through the same growing pains.

Maybe he figures it out, maybe he doesn't.  Time will tell.

 
I'm still confused by all the hate. Who is everyone comparing this guy to? Miles Gaskin who should have went around round 5? The guys who were available in my Non-PPR and PPR leagues around round 7 were:

Javonte Williams - also not lighting the world on fire but can during later half of year (like Sermon)
Melvin Gordon - He was the incumbent in a split backfield so everyone expected him to start the year as a stronger back than Sermon.

Jamaal Williams - Another split backfield but he is a proven RB so of course he's getting more opportunities from the get go. They even said he was going to be 1B pre-draft.

James Conner - Had nothing until last week. 

Kenyan Drake - Guy is never going to lead this backfield. Peyton Barber out touched him last week

AJ Dillon - Talk about disappointment. Just a handcuff right now.

Fournette - Really?

If you are comparing to Gaskin, Carson, Henderson, Harris then you really are a victim of your own expectations. These guys were all proven and given the lead role from the get go. You really should be comparing him to other rookie RBs not named Najee Harris like Carter / Javonte / etc.

 

 
I want to be hopeful, but I think there's a lot of wishful thinking in this thread in regards to his "opportunity" being more than expected. He was a complete non-factor until literally all of their other RBs got hurt, IMO it's hard to put a positive spin on the start of his career.

 
humpback said:
I want to be hopeful, but I think there's a lot of wishful thinking in this thread in regards to his "opportunity" being more than expected. He was a complete non-factor until literally all of their other RBs got hurt, IMO it's hard to put a positive spin on the start of his career.
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And it's a bit premature to write him off.

 
The problem w/ Sermon isn't opportunity or lack of preparation or whatever people wanna attribute to his lack of snaps... the problem is that he simply doesn't look that good when he's in. His cuts look lackadaisical, both running and route running-wise, he loses too much momentum trying to "juke" the D-ilne.

I do recall when Zeke was a rookie he looked extremely unremarkable in his first several games, then proceeded to light it up... maybe it's an OSU RB thing? Hopefully so.

 
tigerz said:
Still too early to give up. Everyone always thinks 3 weeks into the season is enough to cast off a player for the rest of the season. However, it's the guy's first game and they weren't even certain he would start for this game until late in the week so I do think it is understandable that they schemed more Juice and Deebo in case he wasn't able to suit up.

Starting the guy with confidence next week forward? No. But there is a middle ground, especially for growing rookie players. Think you stash and wait for situation to clear up. It's not like you have that many high upside options at RB this year.
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Unless you are desperate he is 100% a hold...

 
I agree it's too early to write off Sermon, but the point is that everything has broken right for him from an opportunity standpoint and he hasn't run with it.

If Mostert was out for the season when everyone drafted, Sermon would have been pushing the 3rd round. Sermon drifters got the opening they were hoping for in week 1. So it's not fair to say "look at the RBs going around him". If Javonte Williams (who was going higher) looked just OK and was outproduced by Mike Boone after Gordon went down, I'd be just as disappointed in that result. 

 
TripItUp said:
And it's a bit premature to write him off.
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Which I don't see anyone doing (I'm certainly not). Just saying that the narrative that he's getting more opportunity than expected is pretty silly without the full context of 3 other RBs who played in front of him getting hurt.

His story is far from finished, but it's been a disappointing start for sure. No reason to spin it otherwise.

 
I don't think anyone is saying that he sucks or advocating that he be dropped or "hating" on Sermon.  Most of us have a very vested interest in his success.

Some of us are simply pointing out that there are a lot of red flags that should not be ignored.

He is absolutely a hold in virtually every format.

He is also someone that you still cannot reliably start four weeks into the season, three weeks after the starter went down.  If Mitchell remains out he enters the flex conversation for those struggling at RB.

 
49ers' Elijah Mitchell: Looking to practice this week

22 hrs ago |

Coach Kyle Shanahan is hopeful Mitchell (shoulder) takes part in practice this week, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.

In particular, Shanahan told Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle that he's "hoping for better signs" that Mitchell is able to suit up Week 4 against the Seahawks after sitting out this past Sunday versus the Packers with what he considered "worse than a stinger" in the running back's right shoulder. With Mitchell sidelined and Raheem Mostert (knee) and JaMycal Hasty (ankle) on IR, Trey Sermon (59 percent of offensive snaps) and Kyle Juszczyk (69 percent) handled all the running back work, while Trenton Cannon and Kerryon Johnson saw action on special teams. Assuming Mitchell is able to return Sunday, it'll be interesting to see how the 49ers backfield will break down.
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Kyle hiding Lance and buying time. Kyle hid Sermon behind Juice last week. Giving the ball to experienced guys in winnable games isn't a horrible idea if you don't think the rooks are ready. I sure wish there were holes to get through against GB, but our lines seemed to get pushed around. Sermon was getting hit in the backfield, it's a wonder he got to 30 yards at all.

 
jtd13 said:
I agree it's too early to write off Sermon, but the point is that everything has broken right for him from an opportunity standpoint and he hasn't run with it.

If Mostert was out for the season when everyone drafted, Sermon would have been pushing the 3rd round. Sermon drifters got the opening they were hoping for in week 1. So it's not fair to say "look at the RBs going around him". If Javonte Williams (who was going higher) looked just OK and was outproduced by Mike Boone after Gordon went down, I'd be just as disappointed in that result. 
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I understand the frustrations from an emotional standpoint, but from a logical standpoint, there are competing viewpoints that could be every bit as valid. People say it's too early but I think from an emotional standpoint, we are one bad game / mitchell start away from people writing him off if they aren't there already.

I think if Mitchell is active, then this is a split backfield. Shanahan has had split backfields in the past with more established runners too (Coleman / Freeman) so I wouldn't be surprised if it's always a split backfield going foward. That's how pretty much every other team is as well.

Also your second point isn't entirely fair either. Mostert was out with Mitchell going off in week 1 so if we did re-draft with Mostert being out, he wouldn't have gone up that high since he had to compete with Mitchell.

If we lived in a world where week 1 never happened, Mostert was out for the season, and they named Sermon the starter for week 1 then I can agree with your comment and you could be disappointed if Sermon sucked against the Lions. But we will never know at this point.

 
I don't think it's too early to write him off in redraft.  Sure, it's not a sure thing yet, but he is not going to be starting as soon as Mitchell or Hasty (or wilson?) are healthy again, and SF clearly has no intention of feeding Sermon, he could also be surpassed or joined by others from the practice squad soon.   You can say it's just 3 games but that is already 20% of the regular season and there is still no real expectations going forward, despite what should have been his opportunity based on where he was drafted.  Football seasons are short.  

People got overly invested in him because they thought they were drafting him as a 1B in a RBBC,  not realizing they were handcuffing the handcuff to the handcuff.  

Dynasty will play out as a more interesting story, but most of the controversy is around his value this year and for redraft. 

 
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GreenNGold said:
I don't think it's too early to write him off in redraft.  Sure, it's not a sure thing yet, but he is not going to be starting as soon as Mitchell or Hasty (or wilson?) are healthy again, and SF clearly has no intention of feeding Sermon, he could also be surpassed or joined by others from the practice squad soon.   You can say it's just 3 games but that is already 20% of the regular season and there is still no real expectations going forward.  Football seasons are short.  

People drafted him as a 1B,  not realizing they were handcuffing the handcuff to the handcuff.  
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I mean there's still 80% of the season left so not sure I understand your point about 20%. The majority of football season is ahead of us not behind us and Sermon still has as good a shot as any other 1B to take over by season's end. I mean you can cut him for Peyton Barber if you want, that is a perfectly valid way to play.

But guy had 11 carries so I didn't see enough yet. Not sure you can really call him the handcuff to the handcuff to the handcuff. No one knows what's really going on with the 49ers and we'll likely never know the full story, everyone's just guessing. 

 
All this “write him off” talk.

Who are you dropping him for? That’s all that matters.

Right now there isn’t anyone with his possible upside on my wires. So I’m holding 

 
I did not get to see that game.  As a Sermon owner I did not start him and won't next week either.  But I'm not defining him by:

1 week - 1 carry concussion out

1 week - mediocre results where the O line may have lost the battle at the line

If next week they are also stuffed or Mitchell comes back and has a big day at that point I consider him a bust and may drop him.  But, he has at least one more week to show anything at all.

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
All this “write him off” talk.

Who are you dropping him for? That’s all that matters.

Right now there isn’t anyone with his possible upside on my wires. So I’m holding 
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exactly, still 78% rostered on ESPN and he just scored a TD...lots of tough talk in here.

 
jdoggydogg said:
I could see a Christian McCaffrey owner dropping Sermon for Chuba Hubbard.
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I could see me dropping him for Chuba Hubbard just because I like saying Chuba Hubbard so much.

And I think he could slide into the flex spot on my roster I had hoped Sermon would be camping in by now.

 
TripItUp said:
exactly, still 78% rostered on ESPN and he just scored a TD...lots of tough talk in here.
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I'm surprised that only 78% of ESPN leagues have guppies in them. 

The shark move is the let another owner waste roster spot and/or waiver priority. 

 
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