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I think Jamal Williams is as important as anyone else to their team's run defense. Would wait another week.
Wow.... I think the guy who got Brown/Mcgahee/Hester is dancing like crazy after the steal he got. Sorry pal, but you got taken.
Really?! MJD in a PPR is by far the best player in that deal. McGahee's nice but he and Hester, to me, aren't enough to close that gap.ImTheScientist said:
Yes - I would.
I actually think it is appears to be a balanced trade. In PPR, MJD's value is quite strong. Further, Mason has much more value as a WR3 type player in PPR. I see losing Hester and McGahee well worth it to bring in MJD in ppr (and again, Mason has invreased value in ppr too).All of this said, I still like Ronnie pretty well this week vs. SD. Could be another strong outting.ImTheScientist said:
Without looking it up, I am confident in saying that Ronnie did not in fact get off to a good start last year. In weeks 1 and 2 he kind of stunk. Got a garbage TD vs AZ to pad week 2, but his numbers were less than stellar. He broke out in week 3 (I think) when the Wildcat was born. You also cannot compare last year to this, as Ronnie was a year off a torn ACL and was "the man" for even being on the field in the beginning of last year, and performed admirably the rest of the year given the fact that he was still not 100%.That said, I am not optimistic that we'll see a lot of games where the Miami offense looks as dominant as it did on Monday, and I dont see a whole lot of 24 carry games for Ronnie given the talent behind him in the backfiled. I am looking for him to be a high end RB2 lacking consistency, but giving you some nice weeks every so often. If expectations are higher than that, I think you may be dissapointed. Not sold on Forte being much better though - but thats just me.
I wouldn't. I think I've been quite clear about dealing away Brown, but I really do not like Slaton this year.
Brown had 5 td's in the first 3 games last year and then cooled off big time.He scored only 1 TD in the final 7 games.
Hopefully the threat of Henne throwing downfield will be enough to make the net impact on Brown's production neutral, perhaps even positive.The worst case is, the Dolphins' QB situation deteriorates to Jamarcus Russell levels. :shudder:Even then, I'd take Brown's talent, and the Dolphins' coaching, over anything in Oakland.
Chase - Are you still selling high or do you think this continues?
ouch.
I posted this in the other RB thread. Yes he has the Jets in the division and plays them twice, but IMO having both matchups with them in the next 4 weeks is a stroke of good fortune.Look at the schedule after that:9 - @ NE10 - TB11 - @ CAR12 - @ BUF13 - NE14 - @ JAX15 - @ TEN16 - HOU Other than TEN, I think it's pretty favorable. And who knows what kind of shape TEN will be in by then.
People saying the Dolphins schedule is tough must be basing that on how these defenses have been in the past. Other than Houston which is about the same, all these defenses have dropped off from where they have been in the past. This season, this schedule is very favorable.Brown does seem to be on a pitch count with Ricky Williams, even though Brown has done more with his carries the past 2 weeks. Brown could of had 4 tds Ricky and Hartwick vultured them. Perhaps the time share is what's helping Brown be so effective, I can't decide.
u got completely hosed. U bqasically traded ronnie and choice for slaton. I have been offered roddy white str8 up 4 him and wonf be taking. Hes as good as anyone sides AP right now.
CJ3 will outscore Ronnie this year in PPR.I think Brown will finish top 10......but I still think CJ3 will be top 5. Not a bad deal.....don't wory.
Ricky is helping Ronnie....trust me. Also Ricky has looked great. He is running hard...breaking all arm tackles. Last year Ricky went down easy. Not so this season. We may have the best 1-2 punch in the league right now.People saying the Dolphins schedule is tough must be basing that on how these defenses have been in the past. Other than Houston which is about the same, all these defenses have dropped off from where they have been in the past. This season, this schedule is very favorable.Brown does seem to be on a pitch count with Ricky Williams, even though Brown has done more with his carries the past 2 weeks. Brown could of had 4 tds Ricky and Hartwick vultured them. Perhaps the time share is what's helping Brown be so effective, I can't decide.
I looked it up. Ronnie Brown's career splits suggest he's a trade high because his touchdown performance in the 2d half of seasons has been subpar:Sept: 16 games, 1612 total yds, 14 total tds (plus 1 passing td)Oct: 16 games, 1655 yds, 9 tds (w/ yesterday: 17 games, 1770 yds, 11 tds)Nov: 13 games, 1025 yds, 5 tdsDec: 9 games, 677 yds, 1 tdJan: 1 game, 44 yds, 0 tdsPer game, his touchdowns drop dramatically after september. If you look at his annual splits, you'll see the same thing. Strong performances through week 6 or so and then a sharp decline in touchdowns. A small part of this can be explained with his injury in 07, in which he had 6 tds through 7 games and didn't finish the year out. That certainly helped his numbers in september and october, but it's not like his 0.84 td/gm in sept and 0.65 td/gm in october are improved all that much by that year. On a year by year basis, you can see it, too:2005games 1-8: 3 tdsgames 9-16: 2 tds20061-8: 4 tds9-16: 1 td20071-8: 5 tds9-16: DNP20081-8: 8 tds (plus 1 passing)9-16: 2 tdsThe good news for Ronnie owners is that his yard per game don't indicate any drop. his yardage did not drop off last year. In fact, his numbers held pretty steady. In 2006, his yardage numbers actually improved. The fact that his career monthly yardage/per game splits indicate a drop can be linked to his rookie season, when his performance dropped off sharply, and 2007, when he performed very well in the first half but was injured in the second half. Of course, these numbers represent a small sample size, but it should be noted that in each of brown's prior 4 seasons, he's scored more touchdowns in the first half than the second half.
Perhaps I did. Time will tell.I am hopeful that Slaton will continue to turn it around, and expect Ronnie Brown to slow down a bit. If I made a bad deal, I will be the first to admit it.
Touchdowns are a crapshoot. Witness Thomas Jones- 2 TDs in '07, 15 in '08. Time and time again it has been demonstrated that, unless you're dealing with a huge sample (i.e. Tomlinson 2006), TDs are incredibly unpredictable from game to game and from season to season. Ronnie's only ever had more than 5 TDs in a single season once in his career, so is the fact that he scored 1 more TD in the first 8 games than the last 8 games in 2005 really relevant?strong said:
Sure, tds are difficult to predict and in low sample sizes, they shouldn't be given much weight... but that doesn't mean it's a complete crapshoot. his td performances in 32 sep/oct games and 23 nov/dec/jan games are not the strongest data to rely on for future success... but disregarding it because touchdowns are difficult to predict is to toss the baby out with the bath water.unpredictable data can still help you understand the whole picture. and yes, since i was breaking down ronnie brown's touchdown splits year to year, i see no reason to ignore 2005.
Again, the sample sizes aren't significant, TDs are always unpredictable and unreliable, and most importantly... correlation does not imply causation. In 2005, Steve Smith averaged twice as many points per game against teams that ended in a vowel than teams that ended in a consonant. Caddy average THREE TIMES as many points against teams with short names than he did against teams with long names. So what?If you want to say that Ronnie Brown struggles scoring TDs in the last half of the season compared to the first half, I'd expect to see some sort of THEORY explaining why that would be the case. Do you think he's getting tired and wearing down late in the season, and that's resulting in fewer TDs? If so, how on earth do you explain the fact that his yardage totals have remained constant? Or the fact that Brown averaged 3.9 yards per carry through the first 9 weeks and 4.7 yards per carry from week 10 onwards last year? Does Miami's offense as a whole simply score fewer TDs late in the season, and if they do, what explanation do you have for it and what reason do you have to expect it to continue this season? Without some kind of theory or explanation, saying "Ronnie Brown scores fewer TDs late in the season" is really no different than saying "Caddy scores three times as many points against teams with short names". Interesting, but not at all fantasy relevant going forward.
<_<
Now 4th in RB scoring in my league's format after four weeks. Still holding...
How do you define short names, though? The team name or the city? And how do you pick an arbtirary length for the team name? What about the 49ers? Or should I say the Forty Niners? I'm not buying your theory about Caddy at all.
I don't love him this week, but I'm playing my studs. I've got some decent options (Lynch, Choice, Bush) behind him, but I just don't see why you sit a guy who is producing at that level.
I am as big of a Ronnie fan as there is. I am sitting him this week for Jerome Harrison (assuming Jamal is out) vs the Bills. The Jets D has been sick. It is painful to do it, but I am. I also sat him last year when he ripped the Patriots apart with 4 rushing TDs and a passing TD, so my Ronnie instincts should not necessarily be counted on.
