Very interesting value situation here...
I thought that Tolbert was the better player last year of the two. Granted Matthews was struggling through injuries and the highs/lows that sometimes come when a kid, particularly from a non-major conference has to make the transition to the NFL.
But I wonder if the Chargers would have made the trade up to draft Matthews if they knew what they had in Tolbert, which I'm not sure they did. Remember, they were coming off the Tomlinson era, an era which saw his last season be quite unproductive.
Tolbert was credited with playing in 15 games. But in Weeks 1, 6, 7 & 16 he played a total of 26 snaps - essentially a games worth of action. So in reality his production should be measured over 12 games, not 15. When measured and extrapolated against that baseline, Tolbert was a guy when he was a significant part of the game plan averaged 85.5 YFS & close to a TD/game. In short, Tolbert was by far the more impressive player between the two.
The Chargers seem to want to justify the 1st round selection on Matthews by giving him every opportunity to be the guy in this backfield. However, it seems that Tolbert's skillset is broader than Matthews at the monment and he appears to be the tougher runner. Matthews might potentially be the more explosoive player, but he's yet to show it at the NFL level. While I don't want to get too worked up about a conditioning test, by a players own admission, when he discusses how he probably should have worked harder to sharpen one of his differentiating attributes during the offseason, I think we are all taking that as a sign thatr perhaps he still has a few things to learn about being a professional.
Production though is king and if Matthews starts tearing it up from the outset, then all will be forgiven. But if he gets off to a slow start, his leash will probably be quite short. And as much as the Chargers would like to define specific roles for each of these players, I just don't think it will be that neat. That said, I do think Tolbert winds up being the TD back. Last season the work distribution inside the 10 looked like this:
Tolbert: 28 carries; 11 TD's
Matthews: 7 carries; 1 TD
...why mess with what works in this area of the field?
Predictions:
Tolbert - 197 Carries, 833 Rushing Yards, 12 TD's, 31 Receptions, 220 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Matthews - 166 Carries, 691 Rushing Yards, 4 TD's, 36 Receptions, 289 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.