Sam Bradford can Succeed in Philadelphia Because Chip Kelly
Posted on March 11, 2015
By Warren Sharp
Ive long been a Sam Bradford skeptic. I introduced the notion following the 2013 season that there are very quantifiable problems with his production on the Rams:
Since 2010, only 6 quarterbacks (of 151 qualifying) had seasons where they threw for LESS than 3 yards before catch (the opposite of YAC, where the receiver gains yardage after catching the ball). Bradford had two such seasons, in 2010 and 2013, to join CARs Jimmy Clausen, DETs Shaun Hill, JACs Blaine Gabbert, MINs Christian Ponder and JACs Chad Henne.
55% of Bradfords total passing yardage came after the catch in 2013, 2nd most of 41 qualifying QBs.
Bradfords accuracy percentage under pressure dipped to 53%, which was 38th out of those 41 QBs, with only Brandon Weeden (CLE), Matt McGloin (OAK) and Thaddeus Lewis (BUF) worse.
A few weeks ago, I dug into how Bradford performed on the passes where he DID decide to throw deep. Though he didnt throw deep often, those results were equally uninspiring. Additionally, the 2014 season cemented issues with Bradfords deep passing: although he didnt play in 2014 due to injury, his backups threw downfield more often, with greater success. So it wasnt entirely a system or lack of team talent thing as to why Bradford was not throwing deep as often. It was a Bradford thing.
Aside from the what we saw from the stats, what else was not to like with Sam Bradford? The salary and the injuries. In 2015, Bradford hits the Eagles for $13M against the cap (as compared to Foles at just 10% of that). However, as Bradford enters his final year from his rookie deal in 2010, I do think if Chip Kelly really believes Bradford can work for the Eagles, they will do their best to renegotiate and lower that 2015 cap hit and get Bradford under a more reasonable, multi-year deal before the 2015 season begins. And then there are the injuries. Bradford has torn the same ACL twice. He missed all of last year. To say he is injury prone is taking it lightly. Since 2010, Bradford has played in 49 of 80 regular season games for the Rams, meaning he has missed almost 40% of his starts. If that continues, the Eagles should expect him to play in 10 of their 16 games in 2015, and that assumes Bradfords 28 year old body (turns 28 in November) is as durable as his 23 year old rookie body.
In my opinion, it was time for the Rams to move on from Sam Bradford. While I initially didnt anticipate a smart coach like Chip Kelly taking the chance to grab Bradford, I can see glimmers of how it could work in Philadelphia, and how there is an outside shot at Bradford resurrecting his career:
Heavy Use of Play Action
Since 2012 (the first appearance of reliable play action data), on average, NFL teams run play action on 21% of all pass plays. Bradford hit that 21% mark in 2012, but in 2013, ran play action just 19% of the time.
On average, the NFL passer rating increases by 10.5 points for play action passes vs non-play action passes. Thats surely one reason the Eagles under Chip Kelly have thrown play action passes 32% of all pass plays, which is obviously WELL above the league average. Its 2nd most in the NFL, but the #1 most frequent team (Seattle) is only a few tenths more frequent. The #3 team (Carolina) is way down at 28%.
However, unlike Seattle seeing average improvement in passer rating (+11.2) from using play action so often, the Eagles passer rating improves +25.8 points. They are the only team in the NFL to move from sub-90 in passer rating without play action to above-110. The only team who sees a more substantial jump are the Chargers, who move from 96 up to 132 with play action, but they run it ridiculously infrequently using play action passes on just 126 of a total 1,216 passes, or 10.4%. They are the only team below 15%, and well below the league avg of 21%.
So the fact that the Eagles are able to use play action SO frequently, AND see such a HUGE boost in passer rating, really is unthinkable.
Sam Bradford, when using play action, saw a boost in passer rating from 81.7 to 106.5. Thats almost a 25 point increase, EXTREMELY similar to the Eagles average of 25.8, and obviously well above league average.
Of course, to use play action so effectively and efficiently, you need a running game. The Eagles, behind the #1 run blocking offensive line the past 2 years, had one. But they just traded LeSean McCoy, and failed to acquire Frank Gore. So someone will have to establish a strong run game to make defenses respect the run, but assuming that it happens, I highly expect Bradford to use play action more than he ever has in his professional career, with good results.
Increased Deep Passing
This is a case where we simply need to trust Chip Kelly. As mentioned above, Sam Bradford as a Ram threw infrequently down field, and most often, poorly when he did throw down field. But it goes against common sense that Chip Kelly, who has called deep passes more frequently in the NFL than any other team, would invest so much in a quarterback who couldnt throw deep.
Lets examine the Chip Kelly timeline:
In 2012, the year before Chip Kelly arrived, Nick Foles threw 10.6% of his passes 20+ yards down field. That was 24th most frequently in the NFL. Foles was accurate on 35.7% of these passes, with 4 TDs, 2 Ints and 10.4 ypa average.
In 2013, Foles threw 17.4% of his passes 20+ yards down field, the #1 most frequent in the NFL. He was accurate on 45.5% of these passes, with 14 TDs, 1 Int and a 14.6 ypa average.
In 2014, the Eagles lost DeSean Jackson to Washington, and the deep passing game suffered. Foles threw 18.9% of passes 20+ yards down field (still #1 most frequent, even more often than 2013) but was accurate on just 35.6%. Similarly, Mark Sanchez was accurate on just 35.1% of deep passes, but whether by design (Kelly less confident) or by QB read progression (Sanchez less confident), Sanchez threw down field just 12% of his attempts. Combined, the two QBs recorded 11 TDs, 10 Ints and just a 9.8 ypa average.
You can imagine this was not pleasing to Kelly. Surely this offseason he will do things with his receivers, be they personnel moves or offensive strategy, to improve down field passing from 2014.
Sam Bradford attempted just 8.4% of his passes in 2013 20+ yards down field. He was accurate on 40.9% of those attempts, for 12.6 ypa, but recorded a 1:2 TD:INT ratio. Obviously his offense didnt put him close enough to score TDs as often, so that ratio doesnt bother me as much as it might to some. But the accuracy % and the ypa were both superior to what the Eagles did last year.
In 2011 and 2012, Bradfords was better in deep passing than in 2013. In 2012, where he was accurate on 41.7% of attempts (attempted deep passes on 13.1% of throws) for 12 ypa and a 8:6 TD:Int ratio. In 2011, Bradford was accurate on 48.8% of his deep passes (attempted deep passes on 11.5% of throws), which was actually the 7th best accuracy mark in the NFL that season. He again threw for 12 ypa, and recorded a 4:2 TD:INT ratio.
Chip Kelly must see the foundation there to see success for Bradford in the deep passing game, more so than what Foles and Sanchez gave him last year which was 35% accuracy and 9.8 ypa. On the Rams, a team who infrequently ran play action to give the passer more time to let deeper routes develop, Bradford was accurate on 40%+ of his deep throws the over his last 3 seasons. Kelly must believe that there will be ample opportunity to throw deep, and he likely try to rekindle the 48.8% accuracy on these passes that Bradford had in 2011, rather than the steadily declining accuracy he has exhibited from 2012 to 2013.
Bottom Line
There still is a lot to overcome with this trade. If Bradford can stay healthy, I really think he could see marginal success under just a few offensive coaches, and Chip Kelly is one of them. The Eagles could be approaching the contract in a few ways: They could either view it as a 1 year roll of the dice on an injured QB who they could re-sign following next year if he works out, or they could attempt to re-sign Bradford sooner, to lower the 2015 cap hit and then really roll the dice that he will work out. The problem with letting him finish out his deal is that if he excels, given the way the Eagles offense is designed, he will put up big numbers which certainly will help his leverage when trying to sign a deal after the season. The obvious risk is that you re-sign him first, and he gets injured again or doesnt provide any more of a fit for Kelly than Sanchez or Foles. Its a fascinating dilemma but one that certainly the Eagles have figured out, or they wouldnt have made such a move in to acquire Bradford. Perhaps Kelly believes his conditioning and sports science will help keep Bradford healthy?
Im not going to shy from my criticism of Bradford, but I will reiterate (as I introduced above) there are several fundamental differences between the offenses Bradford was in and will now be in. Those are just a few examples of things Kelly will do differently to help Bradford. Am I supremely confident it will work? Are there not still plenty of red flags surrounding Bradford on the field, including his inaccuracy under pressure? (On that note, Foles was accurate on 68% of attempts under pressure in Kellys first year 7th best but that number dipped to 51.9% last year, 37th in the NFL and even worse than Bradfords 53.4% in 2013).
Chip Kelly can maximize Bradfords talent while minimizing his deficiency as well as any coach in the NFL. The question is will it be enough to finally make a trip to the playoffs. Kelly has a long leash, but public sentiment goes a long way, and shipping out fan favorite after fan favorite only works if the team wins. If Kelly passes on Marcus Mariota in the draft because he went after Sam Bradford instead, and Sam Bradford bombs in Philadelphia, fans will not be pleased. But with Chip Kelly and his progressive and aggressive approach both on and (clearly) off the field, Im inclined to reserve judgement until I see what happens on Sundays, and instead, focus on what I think Kelly will do to get the most out of the former #1 draft pick.
I'm not an offensive line specialist, but doesn't PHI have a much better OL than STL (though there was a suspension with the RT, perhaps they were banged up?). Jason Peters is arguably the top LT in the game, easily better than a past his prime Jake Long, and the best Bradford has ever worked with. The RT Johnson is a top 3-5 overall pick, though he has struggled at times?
