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Shanahan On Bell/Anderson in 2006 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter zamboni
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Verbal Kint
Footballguy
Sinrman
Footballguy
If they draft another RB in the first three rounds, I don't see why they would keep Anderson, Bell, AND Dayne. One has to go. Perhaps the Bell rumor floating around her isn't quite as far fetched as we thought. Or perhaps Shannahan is talking out of both sides of his mouth (as usual) and will just dump Dayne...?
SSOG
Moderator
Denver RB update.
Mike Anderson was cut from Denver in order to get under the salary cap. Now that a new bargaining agreement has been reached, it is possible that Mike Anderson will return to the Broncos... but at this point, it's too late for him. The fact that they cut Anderson while trying to resign Dayne clearly shows what direction this team wants to go in right now. Again, as I said, there's always the possibility of Anderson resigning and having another mindblowing offseason... but it's a longshot, both in my eyes, and more importantly, in Shanahan's eyes.
I've heard some rumors that Denver might be shopping Tatum Bell, too. That's all they are at this point- rumors- but I don't think it would be a horrible idea. Every year that goes by makes it look less and less likely that Bell will step up and become the featured back. His value probably won't ever be higher, either, since he's coming off a near-1000 yard season and he averaged well over 5 yards per carry. It also fits with Denver's standard modus operandi- view RBs as replaceable. I mean, this is already the third straight year that Denver has let a 1,000 yard rusher go. If they can get compensated with a higher pick than the one they selected Bell with in the first place, I think they've performed a coup. They basically just rented the player for 2 years, traded him before he became anything other than dirt-cheap, and got a higher pick than the one they used in the first place in exchange.
Ron Dayne is absolutely, without question, the guy to get your hands on right now. This could all change if he decides to test the market and sign with another team, or if Denver drafts an RB in the first two rounds, but Shanahan is saying in no uncertain terms that Dayne is the guy he wants to lead his rushing attack next season.
Also, with Anderson gone, the chances of Denver drafting an RB high (i.e. on the first day) rise dramatically. Denver *WILL* have 3 quality RBs on its roster come opening day. Shanahan insists on it at all times. When Anderson/Bell/Dayne were around, there was no pressing need for a quality rookie. Now that at least one part of the trio is gone (and Bell is rumored to be trade bait, and Dayne still hasn't resigned), Denver's almost certain to draft an RB, and is much more likely to draft high than they were before. Remember, too, that Denver is going to have a massive draft class this year. They've got, if I recall correctly, 9 picks already, and will pick up 2 more compensetories for Reggie Hayward and Kenoy Kennedy.
Again, it's not guaranteed that they'll pick up an RB high, since Anderson/Davis/Gary/Griffin were all second-day picks... but they *will* draft an RB, and he *will* be a player in the starting competition during the preseason. I don't expect him to win it outright, but he will be given a shot.
Mike Anderson was cut from Denver in order to get under the salary cap. Now that a new bargaining agreement has been reached, it is possible that Mike Anderson will return to the Broncos... but at this point, it's too late for him. The fact that they cut Anderson while trying to resign Dayne clearly shows what direction this team wants to go in right now. Again, as I said, there's always the possibility of Anderson resigning and having another mindblowing offseason... but it's a longshot, both in my eyes, and more importantly, in Shanahan's eyes.
I've heard some rumors that Denver might be shopping Tatum Bell, too. That's all they are at this point- rumors- but I don't think it would be a horrible idea. Every year that goes by makes it look less and less likely that Bell will step up and become the featured back. His value probably won't ever be higher, either, since he's coming off a near-1000 yard season and he averaged well over 5 yards per carry. It also fits with Denver's standard modus operandi- view RBs as replaceable. I mean, this is already the third straight year that Denver has let a 1,000 yard rusher go. If they can get compensated with a higher pick than the one they selected Bell with in the first place, I think they've performed a coup. They basically just rented the player for 2 years, traded him before he became anything other than dirt-cheap, and got a higher pick than the one they used in the first place in exchange.
Ron Dayne is absolutely, without question, the guy to get your hands on right now. This could all change if he decides to test the market and sign with another team, or if Denver drafts an RB in the first two rounds, but Shanahan is saying in no uncertain terms that Dayne is the guy he wants to lead his rushing attack next season.
I like Williamson. He's pretty grounded, not prone to the knee-jerk media-hysteria that is prevalent throughout Denver. For instance, if Champ Bailey has a horrible game, the next week all the columnists will be castigating him while Williamson holds fast to his stance that Bailey's the best player on the entire defense.He's reasonably new in town. This was his first year here. He came from Minnesota to replace Schefter. As a result, I don't know how good his contacts are, but I very much trust his opinion on analysis. He and Legwold are my favorite two Denver columnists.
Also, with Anderson gone, the chances of Denver drafting an RB high (i.e. on the first day) rise dramatically. Denver *WILL* have 3 quality RBs on its roster come opening day. Shanahan insists on it at all times. When Anderson/Bell/Dayne were around, there was no pressing need for a quality rookie. Now that at least one part of the trio is gone (and Bell is rumored to be trade bait, and Dayne still hasn't resigned), Denver's almost certain to draft an RB, and is much more likely to draft high than they were before. Remember, too, that Denver is going to have a massive draft class this year. They've got, if I recall correctly, 9 picks already, and will pick up 2 more compensetories for Reggie Hayward and Kenoy Kennedy.
Again, it's not guaranteed that they'll pick up an RB high, since Anderson/Davis/Gary/Griffin were all second-day picks... but they *will* draft an RB, and he *will* be a player in the starting competition during the preseason. I don't expect him to win it outright, but he will be given a shot.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Can anyone find a link of Shanahan directly saying anything? He's said many times he really likes Dayne, he was misused in NY and he's going to give him a chance. Sounds pretty close to saying "Hey fat man, the job is yours for the taking."
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
A market for Ron Dayne??
I mean this as a serious question: How many NFL teams right now would even guarantee him the BACKUP job, let alone compete for the starting position?? (Or give the hint he's in the competition)Like Droughns, like Clarett, like Anderson, and so forth, I think Shannahan would be doing this to prove he can make Dayne an everydown NFL back more than Dayne actually being superior to someone else. Clarett's case, he thought he deserved to have the job. The others earned it.
I'm not disagreeing with you that Dayne's the guy to get. I'd hope the only discussion is incentives in a deal with a Denver vs. him looking elsewhere (because there's nothing better out there for him).
Last edited by a moderator:
SSOG
Moderator
No link, you just need a translator.There is plenty of documented evidence where Shanahan has said that he doesn't think Bell is capable of shouldering the full load. There is plenty of documented evidence where Shanahan says that he prefers to have one guy shouldering the full load. It's also easy to find verification that Mike Anderson was cut, and equally easy to find links asserting that resigning Dayne is a high priority for Shanahan.
Put that all together. Shanahan wants a big back running his system. It probably isn't Anderson, since he's been cut (even if he resigns, cutting him and trying to resign Dayne shows where Shanahan's priorities are). It probably isn't Bell, since he's never in his career had more than 17 carries in a game, and his usage last season likely demonstrates his upper limit. That means Denver's #1 RB next year will likely either be Ron Dayne, or an unspecified RB taken in the draft. Since Denver has drafted something like 9 rookie RBs under Shanahan, and only 2 of those RBs have gotten a start as a rookie for reasons other than injuries (Portis and Davis), the smart money is on Dayne to be the featured back next season, unless he gets hurt.
It's still early, and all of this can change several more times this offseason, but right now the smart money is on Dayne. Don't sell the house trying to get him, but if you can quietly pick him up on the cheap in a couple of keeper leagues, jump at the chance.
SSOG
Moderator
Come on, two years ago people would have been shocked if you had suggested that there might be a market for Thomas Jones. Clearly a high first round pick who busted at his first stop, (and in Jones' case, his second as well), can still be a very valuable commodity, even in an anemic offense. And we aren't talking about an anemic offense here, we're talking about Denver, the "longest-running success story" in the NFL. In my opinion, if people were smart, Dayne would be considered a solid 2nd-3rd round choice right now and traded accordingly. And he's got upside, too- if Denver shops Bell, Dayne becomes a solid 1st rounder, no questions asked. Even if Denver doesn't, Anderson was a top-10 back with Bell around last season, and there are usually 10 RBs taken in the first round, so you do the math (please note: I am not advocating taking Dayne in the first round if you are drafting tomorrow. That would be stupid, since you could still grab him significantly later.)I also don't think that Shanahan has this huge ego, this desire to take scrubs and make them stars. Yes, Shanahan drafted Clarett... but he also cut him. A coach with an ego would have at least stashed Clarett on the practice squad rather than admit he was wrong. Yes, Shanahan started Droughns... but remember, Droughns was 5th string and everyone in front of him got hurt. It's not like Shanahan said "Hey, let's impress people by turning my fullback into a 1,000 yard rusher", it's more like Shanahan said "Hey, who do we have left who can carry the ball?" And as for Anderson... Anderson is a very good runningback. Don't forget that he ran for almost 1500 yards and 15 TDs his rookie season despite only getting 12 starts. The guy has skills, and if I were... I don't know... a Philadelphia fan, for instance... I would be desperately praying that he wound up on my team.A market for Ron Dayne??
Like Droughns, like Clarett, like Anderson, and so forth, I think Shannahan would be doing this to prove he can make Dayne an everydown NFL back more than Dayne actually being superior to someone else. Clarett's case, he thought he deserved to have the job. The others earned it.
I'm not disagreeing with you that Dayne's the guy to get. I'd hope the only discussion is incentives in a deal with a Denver vs. him looking elsewhere (because there's nothing better out there for him).
Another point worth mentioning-
George Foster is still on his rookie deal, and has at least 2, and possibly 3 years left on it.
Ben Hamilton was just resigned last season.
Cooper Carslile was just resigned last season.
Tom Nalen was just given a contract extension a couple of weeks ago.
Matt Lepsis was just given a contract extension a couple of days ago.
Denver has a lot of continuity on the line, not just for this year, but for several more years afterwards. This will positively affect Dayne's value for several years to come (assuming he doesn't rush for 1,000 and then get traded or cut, like the last 3 guys to rush for 1,000 in Denver).
I guess where I disagree is on the idea that 6 months prior to opening day, there even is a 'smart money' call on the Denver RB situation. And if you're projecting both Bell and Anderson as gone, you'd have to be dumb not expect at least one, if not two or three, other backs in Denver who could challenge for the job. Right now, the only player with decent value, imo, is Bell, who is sure to get time wherever he ends up. Anderson could end up in lots of places and have some to a lot of value. The thing about Dayne is that there's only one possible way he has real value, and that's if he resigns with Denver and wins the starting job. It could happen, but to say that the smart money is there is, well, not so smart.
SSOG
Moderator
First off, I entirely agree that so many things could happen between now and opening day that I wouldn't hang my season on any predictions or likely-looking happenings. Also, I'm not predicting Tatum Bell will be gone, I'm simply relaying the fact that I've heard rumors that Denver is possibly shopping him. Whether he leaves or not, the fact that they're shopping him suggests to me that they're not that high on him.I mean, they had 3 RBs entering the offseason. One has been cut, one is rumored to be trade bait, and they're by all accounts desperately scrambling to resign the third. The only logical conclusion I can draw from that information is that the third runningback is the guy who they think will be The Guy- notice the use of capitals.
That said, there is most *definitely* "smart money" at any given point. There are no "sure things", but smart money, absolutely. At the moment, I don't think Tatum Bell is where the smart money is at. Yes, he's more likely to be productive if he winds up somewhere other than Denver. Yes, he could still win the Denver starting job despite what we're hearing. That said, his cost will likely be *much* higher than Dayne's at the moment. I suspect a lot of people will see the release of Mike Anderson and automatically upgrade Tatum Bell to a high-round prospect.
Let's break it down this way- at this point, I think Dayne has a significantly better chance of being the RB in Denver who gets the most carries next year. At this point, I think that Dayne could be had for much cheaper than Tatum Bell. Therefore, at this point, I think the smart money is on Ron Dayne. Just because nothing is set in stone yet doesn't mean smart deals can't be made. In fact, if nothing changes from the current situation, then the closer we get to the season, the more Ron Dayne is going to cost. Likewise, if lots of things change, Dayne's value might plummet, and grabbing him now will look idiotic in retrospect.
The trick of offseason trades is to find the point where your perception of the player's value is the highest, and everyone else's perception of his value is the lowest, and then acquire him at that point. That's "the smart money".
An example- I grabbed Mike Anderson in July last season becaues I thought he had a chance to win the starting job. I didn't think he had a much better than 60-75% chance (prior to training camps), but he was very cheap, and so I considered it a worthwhile investment. This is the same thing. Let's say you think Dayne has only a 50% chance to win the starting job in Denver... wouldn't acquiring an RB with a 50% chance to finish in the top 10 for a very low price be considered "smart money"?
Now, the only question is whether or not you agree with me. If you don't like Dayne's chances of winning the starting job, for instance if you think Denver will sign Edge or someone, then he'd be a bad player to pick up. If you think Denver will draft an RB high, but Dayne will still be the starter, then snag him immediately after the draft when his perceived value drops through the floor. If you think that Denver is going to avoid RBs entirely in the draft (little chance of that, imo), then grab him now, because both Dayne and Bell will see a rise in their value. NFL offseason trades are a lot like the stock market- you try and predict what will happen in the future, and then buy or sell at the perfect time to maximize your profit. My mindset right now is "buy Dayne very cheaply, either right now or immediately after the draft", while yours might be "Buy Tatum Bell before his value skyrockets". The most fun part is that neither of us will know who was right and who was wrong until one of us is holding the hardware after next season and the other is holding his head in shame.
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