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Shanahan On Bell/Anderson in 2006 (1 Viewer)

zamboni

Footballguy
It's already been 3 days since the Broncos were eliminated, so we're a bit behind on Denver RB threads.Broncos | Shanahan discusses M. AndersonTue, 24 Jan 2006 23:24:13 -0800Denver Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan was asked Tuesday, Jan. 24, about RB Mike Anderson's age when he returns for the 2006 season and he replied, "I don't really think about guys being old. It's when they're old and not be very productive. Hopefully Mike can come back in great shape and be productive for us. If he's productive he'll play, if not, he'll play in a backup role." Broncos | Shanahan discusses BellTue, 24 Jan 2006 23:23:40 -0800Denver Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan was asked Tuesday, Jan. 24, if RB Tatum Bell was not the team's every-down running back and he replied, "I'm not going to say not. We played him in that role because we thought it was best for our football team. If he proves he can carry it 25 times a game and still be productive, I'd love to have him in that role because he does have a lot of ability."And last but not least:Broncos | Shanahan calls Dayne priority for 2006 seasonTue, 24 Jan 2006 16:10:06 -0800The Associated Press reports Denver Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan called RB Ron Dayne a priority for the 2006 season.

 

Football Menace

Footballguy
So draft all 3 and go nuts all year? Sorry, I'll leave that mess to someone else.
That mess worked out pretty well for those that took Anderson (15th) later than Bell (4th). Problem was many people didn't believe Shanny when he said Anderson was the starter. Whoever is the starter at the beginning of the season is worth at least a 3rd. All you have to do is grab the backup as a handcuff, and you have a great #2 RB, with potential as a #1.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
So draft all 3  and go nuts all year? Sorry, I'll leave that mess to someone else.
That mess worked out pretty well for those that took Anderson (15th) later than Bell (4th). Problem was many people didn't believe Shanny when he said Anderson was the starter. Whoever is the starter at the beginning of the season is worth at least a 3rd. All you have to do is grab the backup as a handcuff, and you have a great #2 RB, with potential as a #1.
Or you could follow the same strategy once the Bell hype begins again. Draft Anderson later, and wait for Bell to get hurt the first game he's slated to get the ball 25 times.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Don't forget that Shanny will draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, so that's 4 roster spots you have to use.
Possibly, but they may feel that they are set with the three guys they have now. Of course, a lot depends on if they can re-sign Dayne.
 
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Yenrub

Footballguy
So draft all 3  and go nuts all year? Sorry, I'll leave that mess to someone else.
Worked out for well for me this year, I won the league that I had all three.12 teams we keep 2 players and have 20 man rosters.

I got Mike Anderson with pick 2.06, Tatum Bell with pick 6.06 and Ron Dayne via trade.

Dayne was drafted with pick 16.02.

 
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stevec

Footballguy
If Ricky shows up, Anderson is a fullback - and Dayne is gone. This year I simply drafted Anderson somewhere around round 7 as RB 4 because Shanahan was pretty much honest this year, and Bell never had the #1 job when Anderson was really healthy.

 

Helm

Fruitcake
Don't forget that Shanny will draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, so that's 4 roster spots you have to use.
I find it highly unlikely that Denver will draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round. Maybe if Bush slips to them. :lmao:
 

Family Matters

Footballguy
Don't forget that Shanny will draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, so that's 4 roster spots you have to use.
Possibly, but they may feel that they are set with the three guys they have now. Of course, a lot depends on if they can re-sign Dayne.
That shouldn't be a problem because noone else wants him.
 

Family Matters

Footballguy
If Ricky shows up, Anderson is a fullback - and Dayne is gone. This year I simply drafted Anderson somewhere around round 7 as RB 4 because Shanahan was pretty much honest this year, and Bell never had the #1 job when Anderson was really healthy.
You really have to wonder how that would shape up if Ricky is there. First, I doubt that happens with Bell there. But I could see another platooning situation next year if Anderson is still healthy. I say that because I doubt the chemistry would work if Anderson is the FB and Bell has to share with another guy from outside the roster. I can't see these 2 guys being happy about that.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Ricky Williams and perhaps Terrell Owens on the same team? Maybe Bam Morris could be hired as a RB coach...I'm sure Rae-Rae would love a work release program to be the WR coach too.

 

stevec

Footballguy
If Ricky shows up, Anderson is a fullback - and Dayne is gone. This year I simply drafted Anderson somewhere around round 7 as RB 4 because Shanahan was pretty much honest this year, and Bell never had the #1 job when Anderson was really healthy.
You really have to wonder how that would shape up if Ricky is there. First, I doubt that happens with Bell there. But I could see another platooning situation next year if Anderson is still healthy. I say that because I doubt the chemistry would work if Anderson is the FB and Bell has to share with another guy from outside the roster. I can't see these 2 guys being happy about that.
I don't think Anderson would have a real problem with whatever he's asked to do to help the team. He's been moved to fullback after a 1000 yard season before - he even won rookie of the year the prior year, I think.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
But I could see another platooning situation next year if Anderson is still healthy. I say that because I doubt the chemistry would work if Anderson is the FB and Bell has to share with another guy from outside the roster. I can't see these 2 guys being happy about that.
As mentioned, I doubt that Shanny cares whether they're happy about it. He's shifted RBs before.We've got about 7 or 8 months to debate it, but my guess is that like last year, Bell will be given every chance to beat out Anderson for the feature role. But he's got to earn it first, which he didn't last year.

Remember that while Anderson is no spring chicken at age 32, he's got very little mileage compared to other 30+ year old starting RBs.

 
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Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
Denver Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan ... replied, "I'm not going to say not..."
Ah yes. Classic Shanny. Let the 10,000 Denver 2006 RB threads begin.
Ron Dayne for RB1!!But you're right about the threads. I wonder what will be the "thread of the offseason" the way LJ/Priest was this year.

 

jeff_eaglz

Moderator
I posted this on another thread, but I'll add it to the discussion since I think it is THE stat for understanding Bell vs. Anderson.

Bell / Anderson

I think Tatum Bell starts in Denver next year...just a hunch. I think this year was his real rookie year after being hurt a lot in Year #1. I think he starts in 2006. JMO.
That's highly unlikely.Where's SSOG when you need him? :)

Shanahan doesn't want Bell to get more than 15 carries a game. He thinks that's about his limit.

Also Bell rarely picks up a first down. His carries usually can be grouped into 12 carries for 0-2 yards, 2 for 3-6, and 1 for 40+. That's pretty inefficient.

For the record:

Bell had 41 first downs and 8 TDs on 184 carries in 2005, including the postseason.

Mike Anderson had 61 firsts and 15 TDs on 267 carries over the same span.

49/184 = 26.6% of Bell's carries for firsts.

76/267 = 28.5% for MA.

The BIGGEST stat difference lies beneath this.

Bell had 92 carries for 2 yards or fewer. That's exactly 50%.

Anderson had just 80 carries for 2 yards or fewer. That's 30%.

So Anderson is likely to get you 3 or more yards / carry 70% of his carries, whereas Bell will fail half the time. He's exactly an "all or nothing" type of back.
So pardon me if I don't believe that Bell will be the feature back. Not that I'm comparing his abilities, but Bell is a Barry Sanders kind of back - all or nothing. Not much pounding on the inside either. He will either run for 50 or 2 yards on any carry at any point in the game. So please - hype Bell - while I draft Anderson as my RB3 :) .

 

Blackjacks

Footballguy
No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN WOMAN. You know your not getting anything out of him/her yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.fixed

 
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No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN. You know your not getting anything out of him yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.
He has lots of potential but he still hasn't proven he can pound it for 16 games as the starter. I think he makes a good change of pace type back while Anderson is the better short yardage guy. Anderson, who's getting older certainly benfits from Bell too. Getting to get breaks during the game whether he admits to wanting them or not helps prolong his career as well.I know we've heard rumblings about Ricky Williams coming to Denver, but is it me or is all u ever hear out of Denver is their running backs. To me, that's one of their strengths. They have other areas of concern they should address BEFORE they start looking at the RB's again. Shanny must be obsessed with RB's....which is probably why who's ever in there usually has pretty good stats.

 
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zamboni

Footballguy
No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN. You know your not getting anything out of him yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.
He has lots of potential but he still hasn't proven he can pound it for 16 games as the starter. I think he makes a good change of pace type back while Anderson is the better short yardage guy. Anderson, who's getting older certainly benfits from Bell too. Getting to get breaks during the game whether he admits to wanting them or not helps prolong his career as well.I know we've heard rumblings about Ricky Williams coming to Denver, but is it me or is all u ever hear out of Denver is their running backs. To me, that's one of their strengths. They have other areas of concern they should address BEFORE they start looking at the RB's again. Shanny must be obsessed with RB's....which is probably why who's ever in there usually has pretty good stats.
I think that's the key right there. Bell stayed generally healthy this year, albeit on a reduced workload. Given the need to pound the ball between the tackles in that system, I have my doubts he can hold up under a consistent 25 carry workload.Maybe we'll find out. Or maybe not.

 
M

MLBrandow

Guest
they've been talking about trading for Ricky, too..
They could get him for Mike Anderson straight up.Or... maybe they could give away their 3rd round pick for him! I think Ricky could at least make it through training camp without being cut.

 

Garts

Footballguy
He will probably always be in that 15-18 carry range...they want him to stay healthy and fresh, so when he does carry it, he can make things happen.He just can't wear down a defence with his game.

 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN. You know your not getting anything out of him yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.
Was that analogy necessary?
 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
I posted this on another thread, but I'll add it to the discussion since I think it is THE stat for understanding Bell vs. Anderson.

Bell / Anderson

I think Tatum Bell starts in Denver next year...just a hunch. I think this year was his real rookie year after being hurt a lot in Year #1. I think he starts in 2006. JMO.
That's highly unlikely.Where's SSOG when you need him? :)

Shanahan doesn't want Bell to get more than 15 carries a game. He thinks that's about his limit.

Also Bell rarely picks up a first down. His carries usually can be grouped into 12 carries for 0-2 yards, 2 for 3-6, and 1 for 40+. That's pretty inefficient.

For the record:

Bell had 41 first downs and 8 TDs on 184 carries in 2005, including the postseason.

Mike Anderson had 61 firsts and 15 TDs on 267 carries over the same span.

49/184 = 26.6% of Bell's carries for firsts.

76/267 = 28.5% for MA.

The BIGGEST stat difference lies beneath this.

Bell had 92 carries for 2 yards or fewer. That's exactly 50%.

Anderson had just 80 carries for 2 yards or fewer. That's 30%.

So Anderson is likely to get you 3 or more yards / carry 70% of his carries, whereas Bell will fail half the time. He's exactly an "all or nothing" type of back.
So pardon me if I don't believe that Bell will be the feature back. Not that I'm comparing his abilities, but Bell is a Barry Sanders kind of back - all or nothing. Not much pounding on the inside either. He will either run for 50 or 2 yards on any carry at any point in the game. So please - hype Bell - while I draft Anderson as my RB3 :) .
Nice post with an interesting look inside the numbers of the two. I looked up the situation splits.Bell:

- 123 carries (67%) in long yardage situations (i.e., 1st down, 2nd & 8+, 3rd/4th & 7+)

- 30 carries (16%) in short yardage situations (i.e., 2nd & 0-3, 3rd/4th & 0-2)

Anderson splits:

- 173 carries (65%) in long yardage situations

- 45 carries (17%) in short yardage situations

Basically the same situation splits, but much better results with Anderson.

 

Blackjacks

Footballguy
No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN women. You know your not getting anything out of him/her yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.
fixedyes, that did sound bad

Was that analogy necessary?
Saw a shot and I went for it. Sorry if it offends anyone.I thought it was funny though.

 
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cstu

Footballguy
No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN. You know your not getting anything out of him yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.
Was that analogy necessary?
Saw a shot and I went for it. Sorry if it offends anyone.I thought it was funny though.
Funny, but damn I gotta get that imagery out of my mind.
 

Dynasty

Footballguy
This is probably make or break time for Bell IMO. He wil likely get his chance....
I have no idea if this is a serious comment or a joke. But, it seems like I've read the same thing about once a week for the past two seasons.

 

jeff_eaglz

Moderator
No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN. You know your not getting anything out of him yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.
Was that analogy necessary?
Was it the "he" in the final sentence that caused that reaction?Not to exacerbate the analogy - but - if you are learning from scratch, it'll take a while before you even have the fundamentals down, let alone begin to impress.....

 

Keys Myaths

Pokerguy
No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN. You know your not getting anything out of him yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.
Was that analogy necessary?
Was it the "he" in the final sentence that caused that reaction?Not to exacerbate the analogy - but - if you are learning from scratch, it'll take a while before you even have the fundamentals down, let alone begin to impress.....
No, I just get a little agitated when the level goes above PG. There's no reason for it, and kids/women read the site. He could've made the same comparison by using a non-sexual analogy.I'm a little too anal at times. :) But, I don't want to have to get nervous of someone looking over my shoulder, either.

 

Blackjacks

Footballguy
No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN WOMAN. You know your not getting anything out of him/her yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.

fixed
Didn't read that right as I was posting it. :banned:
 

jeff_eaglz

Moderator
No bias here but I think Bell will be given every chance to get the job and put up good #'s next year. He will still be hard to get off my roster. I like to describe him as a hot VIRGIN WOMAN. You know your not getting anything out of him/her yet but once he gets going it will be worth the wait.

fixed
Didn't read that right as I was posting it. :banned:
I think "neutered" would have been more appropriate.....
 

BGP

Indians Fever
I'm starting to really sour on Tatum Bell. I don't know if he will ever be proficient enough at picking up the blitz to be trusted as a full time back. I rostered him a year ago on my fantasy team, expecting that to improve. My patience is wearing thin.

 

thatguy

Footballguy
I for one would be thrilled to see Denver land Ricky. Anderson is nowhere near the talent that RW is.If Denver lands RW and TO, and they both behave, watch out.

 

SSOG

Moderator
Don't forget that Shanny will draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, so that's 4 roster spots you have to use.
I seriously doubt that Shanny will draft an RB in the second round. He's only drafted 2 RBs in the second round. The first was Clinton Portis, who he drafted because he had Portis graded as a high first-rounder and was shocked he was still available. The second was Tatum Bell, who he drafted because he had a lot of questions at RB and really really needed a quality back to ease his mind. The rest of his famous RBs have all come later. Clarett was the final pick of the 3rd round (and would have been picked later if teams could trade compensatory picks). Gary and Griffin were both 4th rounders. Mike Anderson and Terrell Davis were both sixth rounders. I expect Shanny to draft an RB, but I also expect it to come on the second day of the draft, and I doubt he'll have any big impact. Again, Portis is the big aberration because Shanahan was so high on the guy, but rookies don't get a shot in Denver until the veteran they're backing up goes down. Shanahan might surprise me, of course, but unless he drafts a back in the first two rounds, that back isn't even going to be on my radar. Unless he's listed at #1 on the depth chart. ;)
If Ricky shows up, Anderson is a fullback - and Dayne is gone. This year I simply drafted Anderson somewhere around round 7 as RB 4 because Shanahan was pretty much honest this year, and Bell never had the #1 job when Anderson was really healthy.
Anderson is not moving back to fullback. It's not going to happen. When he first moved to fullback, Denver didn't have one. Now, Denver DOES have a fullback. They have a very good, young fullback named Kyle Johnson. He had 6 TDs this last year. He's not going anywhere.Also, I would be surprised if Denver went with only 4 halfbacks on its roster (which would be the case if both Anderson and Dayne were gone- they'd have Johnson, Williams, Bell, and the FB/RB hybrid Cecil Sapp). Denver will frequently play it thin at QB, but I don't think Shanny's willing to do the same at RB.

Finally, I think Bell has a very good chance of winning the job over a healthy Anderson. I didn't think he had a chance last season, but this offseason is going to determine what happens next year. It's a clean slate again.

SSOG must be trapped in an elevator or something not to have responded yet. :)
It was a rough loss, so I took a week off from everything football related. A "cool-down" period, if you will. Anyway, I'm back now.Here are my notes on the situation.

#1- It's really, really early, and all speculation at this point is just that. Speculation. Guesswork. That goes for me, too. I'm basically just throwing darts at this point.

#2- Despite the common belief that I'm somehow related to Mike Anderson, I'm actually not that high on him for next season. I was VERY high on him for this season, but I actually like Dayne better for next year. Again, it's all speculation and guesswork at this point, but the fact that Denver seems so intent to resign Dayne suggests to me that they want desperately to expend his role. I don't buy into the theory that Mike Anderson is old and therefore due for a drop, but I *do* believe that the biggest reason that Anderson won the job last season was that he had an AMAZING offseason, and I think something like that will be hard to repeat.

#3- To be honest- and this is going to shock a lot of people- Mike Anderson is actually my THIRD highest Denver RB priority at this point. As I said, I like Dayne over him at the moment, but I like Bell better than both of them. I think that Shanahan wants Bell to win the job, and I think Bell's going to have an entire offseason to close the gap between him and Anderson. So Bell has a chance to win the job entirely, but even if Dayne wins it, Bell still has some value. The only way Anderson has any value is if he wins the job.

Look at it this way. Let's say that each back has a 33% chance of winning the starting job. That means that Dayne and Anderson have a 33% chance of having value next season... and Bell has a 100% chance. Because even if Dayne or Anderson win it, he's still going to get carries, yards, and TDs.

To recap... I'd wait several more months before making any decisive moves, because there's a serious lack of information at the moment... but if I was in a keeper league, and the trading deadline was tomorrow, and someone held a gun to my head... I'd trade Mike Anderson for Bell or Dayne, straight up.

 

Garts

Footballguy
Don't forget that Shanny will draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, so that's 4 roster spots you have to use.
I seriously doubt that Shanny will draft an RB in the second round. He's only drafted 2 RBs in the second round. The first was Clinton Portis, who he drafted because he had Portis graded as a high first-rounder and was shocked he was still available. The second was Tatum Bell, who he drafted because he had a lot of questions at RB and really really needed a quality back to ease his mind. The rest of his famous RBs have all come later. Clarett was the final pick of the 3rd round (and would have been picked later if teams could trade compensatory picks). Gary and Griffin were both 4th rounders. Mike Anderson and Terrell Davis were both sixth rounders. I expect Shanny to draft an RB, but I also expect it to come on the second day of the draft, and I doubt he'll have any big impact. Again, Portis is the big aberration because Shanahan was so high on the guy, but rookies don't get a shot in Denver until the veteran they're backing up goes down. Shanahan might surprise me, of course, but unless he drafts a back in the first two rounds, that back isn't even going to be on my radar. Unless he's listed at #1 on the depth chart. ;)
If Ricky shows up, Anderson is a fullback - and Dayne is gone. This year I simply drafted Anderson somewhere around round 7 as RB 4 because Shanahan was pretty much honest this year, and Bell never had the #1 job when Anderson was really healthy.
Anderson is not moving back to fullback. It's not going to happen. When he first moved to fullback, Denver didn't have one. Now, Denver DOES have a fullback. They have a very good, young fullback named Kyle Johnson. He had 6 TDs this last year. He's not going anywhere.Also, I would be surprised if Denver went with only 4 halfbacks on its roster (which would be the case if both Anderson and Dayne were gone- they'd have Johnson, Williams, Bell, and the FB/RB hybrid Cecil Sapp). Denver will frequently play it thin at QB, but I don't think Shanny's willing to do the same at RB.

Finally, I think Bell has a very good chance of winning the job over a healthy Anderson. I didn't think he had a chance last season, but this offseason is going to determine what happens next year. It's a clean slate again.

SSOG must be trapped in an elevator or something not to have responded yet. :)
It was a rough loss, so I took a week off from everything football related. A "cool-down" period, if you will. Anyway, I'm back now.Here are my notes on the situation.

#1- It's really, really early, and all speculation at this point is just that. Speculation. Guesswork. That goes for me, too. I'm basically just throwing darts at this point.

#2- Despite the common belief that I'm somehow related to Mike Anderson, I'm actually not that high on him for next season. I was VERY high on him for this season, but I actually like Dayne better for next year. Again, it's all speculation and guesswork at this point, but the fact that Denver seems so intent to resign Dayne suggests to me that they want desperately to expend his role. I don't buy into the theory that Mike Anderson is old and therefore due for a drop, but I *do* believe that the biggest reason that Anderson won the job last season was that he had an AMAZING offseason, and I think something like that will be hard to repeat.

#3- To be honest- and this is going to shock a lot of people- Mike Anderson is actually my THIRD highest Denver RB priority at this point. As I said, I like Dayne over him at the moment, but I like Bell better than both of them. I think that Shanahan wants Bell to win the job, and I think Bell's going to have an entire offseason to close the gap between him and Anderson. So Bell has a chance to win the job entirely, but even if Dayne wins it, Bell still has some value. The only way Anderson has any value is if he wins the job.

Look at it this way. Let's say that each back has a 33% chance of winning the starting job. That means that Dayne and Anderson have a 33% chance of having value next season... and Bell has a 100% chance. Because even if Dayne or Anderson win it, he's still going to get carries, yards, and TDs.

To recap... I'd wait several more months before making any decisive moves, because there's a serious lack of information at the moment... but if I was in a keeper league, and the trading deadline was tomorrow, and someone held a gun to my head... I'd trade Mike Anderson for Bell or Dayne, straight up.
I like what you say SSOG. I am a big Bronco fan and have Tatum on one of my keeper teams. ANY insight you hear or know or want to share, I will be watching for ya!
 

Garts

Footballguy
It does sound as of right now...you think Tatum will be the guy one way or another. I think this was really Tatum's rookie year as lastyear he played minimal snaps and was hurt....and this year was morelike his first. So, maybe next year is when he takes over.

 
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Garts

Footballguy
I also think that anyone that can get their hands on Ron Dayne in any sort of league should get him now before word spreads he may be the man in Denver.

 

Garts

Footballguy
Tatum is going to hit the weights big time here in the off season. I thin he will start in 2006, but Dayne remains the dark horse.

 

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