Don't forget that Shanny will draft a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, so that's 4 roster spots you have to use.
I seriously doubt that Shanny will draft an RB in the second round. He's only drafted 2 RBs in the second round. The first was Clinton Portis, who he drafted because he had Portis graded as a high first-rounder and was shocked he was still available. The second was Tatum Bell, who he drafted because he had a lot of questions at RB and really really needed a quality back to ease his mind. The rest of his famous RBs have all come later. Clarett was the final pick of the 3rd round (and would have been picked later if teams could trade compensatory picks). Gary and Griffin were both 4th rounders. Mike Anderson and Terrell Davis were both sixth rounders. I expect Shanny to draft an RB, but I also expect it to come on the second day of the draft, and I doubt he'll have any big impact. Again, Portis is the big aberration because Shanahan was so high on the guy, but rookies don't get a shot in Denver until the veteran they're backing up goes down. Shanahan might surprise me, of course, but unless he drafts a back in the first two rounds, that back isn't even going to be on my radar. Unless he's listed at #1 on the depth chart.
If Ricky shows up, Anderson is a fullback - and Dayne is gone. This year I simply drafted Anderson somewhere around round 7 as RB 4 because Shanahan was pretty much honest this year, and Bell never had the #1 job when Anderson was really healthy.
Anderson is not moving back to fullback. It's not going to happen. When he first moved to fullback, Denver didn't have one. Now, Denver DOES have a fullback. They have a very good, young fullback named Kyle Johnson. He had 6 TDs this last year. He's not going anywhere.Also, I would be surprised if Denver went with only 4 halfbacks on its roster (which would be the case if both Anderson and Dayne were gone- they'd have Johnson, Williams, Bell, and the FB/RB hybrid Cecil Sapp). Denver will frequently play it thin at QB, but I don't think Shanny's willing to do the same at RB.
Finally, I think Bell has a very good chance of winning the job over a healthy Anderson. I didn't think he had a chance last season, but this offseason is going to determine what happens next year. It's a clean slate again.
SSOG must be trapped in an elevator or something not to have responded yet.
It was a rough loss, so I took a week off from everything football related. A "cool-down" period, if you will. Anyway, I'm back now.Here are my notes on the situation.
#1- It's really, really early, and all speculation at this point is just that. Speculation. Guesswork. That goes for me, too. I'm basically just throwing darts at this point.
#2- Despite the common belief that I'm somehow related to Mike Anderson, I'm actually not that high on him for next season. I was VERY high on him for this season, but I actually like Dayne better for next year. Again, it's all speculation and guesswork at this point, but the fact that Denver seems so intent to resign Dayne suggests to me that they want desperately to expend his role. I don't buy into the theory that Mike Anderson is old and therefore due for a drop, but I *do* believe that the biggest reason that Anderson won the job last season was that he had an AMAZING offseason, and I think something like that will be hard to repeat.
#3- To be honest- and this is going to shock a lot of people- Mike Anderson is actually my THIRD highest Denver RB priority at this point. As I said, I like Dayne over him at the moment, but I like Bell better than both of them. I think that Shanahan wants Bell to win the job, and I think Bell's going to have an entire offseason to close the gap between him and Anderson. So Bell has a chance to win the job entirely, but even if Dayne wins it, Bell still has some value. The only way Anderson has any value is if he wins the job.
Look at it this way. Let's say that each back has a 33% chance of winning the starting job. That means that Dayne and Anderson have a 33% chance of having value next season... and Bell has a 100% chance. Because even if Dayne or Anderson win it, he's still going to get carries, yards, and TDs.
To recap... I'd wait several more months before making any decisive moves, because there's a serious lack of information at the moment... but if I was in a keeper league, and the trading deadline was tomorrow, and someone held a gun to my head... I'd trade Mike Anderson for Bell or Dayne, straight up.
