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Yeah. Way too far out. But those models I'm talking about have the heavy snow line down below DC.
I've got to drive to Pittsburgh Thursday late night, and come back Sunday during the afternoon...I'm OK missing that one honestly. I've had my share of driving long distances in the snow. I'll welcome any storm after that though. Especially after we file earnings and things slow down so I can actually enjoy myself working from home.
Yeah. Right now, there's some disagreement in the models, but the chance for a huge storm is definitely there.
Don't know if you've got a 4-door or a 2-door, but honestly, my 2-door Wrangler wasn't that good in snow at speed...it'd drive through deeper snow than anything else, but the short wheel-base made it really squirrely and prone to spinning in slush/ice.
WDIK was just saying the same thing about his drive in. Crazy.
Any thoughts on the lower Mid-Atlantic? Our forecasts just have just been giving chances of snowfall from Sunday til Tuesday. (~50%)Models are really seeing a long event here. Funny thing is, they show this system becoming a coastal storm. But not until Tuesday. And by then, it'll already have dropped a foot of more of snow across the northeast. At least that's what the models say.
Again, this storm will have a HUGE bust potential. But it also has the potential for being huge! Going to be a fun one to track. I just want some damn snow!
Models don't really have a rain snow line down yet. Because this is a cut off low, the forecast for who gets what is going to be very difficult. I'd say the forecasts won't really mean anything until about Friday night. And even then, this will probably be more of a nowcasting thing. I'm thinking it'll be more of a northern thing as opposed to your way, but that's just my gut at this point. Models have me right on the line of big snow and dusting. But we are a long way out.Any thoughts on the lower Mid-Atlantic? Our forecasts just have just been giving chances of snowfall from Sunday til Tuesday. (~50%)Models are really seeing a long event here. Funny thing is, they show this system becoming a coastal storm. But not until Tuesday. And by then, it'll already have dropped a foot of more of snow across the northeast. At least that's what the models say.
Again, this storm will have a HUGE bust potential. But it also has the potential for being huge! Going to be a fun one to track. I just want some damn snow!
Sheik,TheIronSheik said:
West to east. As of right now, the snow doesn't look too bad. And what I mean by that is, it shouldn't be very heavy snow. The reason most places that see snow will (could) end up with over a foot is because it will start snowing early Sunday morning and finish snowing late Tuesday night. The further west you go, the less snow you'll see. Models show the heavy stuff really starting in C PA and points east.
FML. I always end up travling in a storm. At least once a year I end up driving back from somewhere at 30 miles per hour trying not to die. This year, I already had that when I was driving back from NH in a rented Suburban and it started snowing. Now I get this one. Great. I'm sure the turnpike will be a joy near Bedford PA.
Well, look at it this way: The past three storms at this range, models were all completely wrong for the most part. This storm is going to have a very high bust potential and even though models are starting to agree on track and other details, this type of system (a cut off low) is the most difficult type of storm to predict.
I'll check back in then. At the end of the day, I'm going either way, so I guess I shouldn't fret. It is what it is.
Yeah. The models right now have this north. Like C PA into NY state, extending east. As he points out, it could change, and I doubt very highly the track is set in stone by any means, but it'll take a lot to move it down to you. I still think that anything other than looking at models and thinking, "that's interesting", is fool's gold. The clipper that comes through tonight will change the models for tomorrow. And then Friday, once models will actually get samplings of the energy, I think we'll be able to get a clearer picture of this.
Sooo, the Isle of Long...??Yeah. The models right now have this north. Like C PA into NY state, extending east. As he points out, it could change, and I doubt very highly the track is set in stone by any means, but it'll take a lot to move it down to you. I still think that anything other than looking at models and thinking, "that's interesting", is fool's gold. The clipper that comes through tonight will change the models for tomorrow. And then Friday, once models will actually get samplings of the energy, I think we'll be able to get a clearer picture of this.
I'd say right now, I'm at the 50/50 line of getting 6 to 12 inches. But the bust chances are very high here. That's why I think writing this off and/or celebrating the models is a disaster waiting to happen. Especially after the past 3 storms to come through. I imagine every pro met is thinking "Are you kidding me?" over this storm system.
At this point, the IOL is pretty much sitting just slightly better than where I am.Sooo, the Isle of Long...??Yeah. The models right now have this north. Like C PA into NY state, extending east. As he points out, it could change, and I doubt very highly the track is set in stone by any means, but it'll take a lot to move it down to you. I still think that anything other than looking at models and thinking, "that's interesting", is fool's gold. The clipper that comes through tonight will change the models for tomorrow. And then Friday, once models will actually get samplings of the energy, I think we'll be able to get a clearer picture of this.
I'd say right now, I'm at the 50/50 line of getting 6 to 12 inches. But the bust chances are very high here. That's why I think writing this off and/or celebrating the models is a disaster waiting to happen. Especially after the past 3 storms to come through. I imagine every pro met is thinking "Are you kidding me?" over this storm system.
How's north NJ looking? Have a huge day at work monday and I don't need snow screwing it up.
Depends on what part of N NJ. But right now, the models have you as a fairly nice size storm. About half a foot.
Canadian went north. Ukie stayed solid. Sampling should start tonight, but I'm going to try to reverse jinx it and say, I'm pretty sure this one goes way north of us. Some models have ice showing up for SE PA, but I'm not sold on that idea either.
Mid February is usually stormy right? Seems like in the past the DC area has had massive storms around President's Day.GFS has massive cold coming down into the northeast for Valentines's Day as well as a potential storm. I might believe the cold weather, but fart in the general direction of a storm this far out. Storm signal has been there for a while, but if I had to guess now, I'd say it goes north of me and NE gets another hit.
February is usually one of the stormiest snow times. Maximum potential for snow (at least in my area) is Feb. 2nd. But the drop off comes quick. Because March 1st is the first day of meteorological spring.Mid February is usually stormy right? Seems like in the past the DC area has had massive storms around President's Day.GFS has massive cold coming down into the northeast for Valentines's Day as well as a potential storm. I might believe the cold weather, but fart in the general direction of a storm this far out. Storm signal has been there for a while, but if I had to guess now, I'd say it goes north of me and NE gets another hit.
I'm out in the burbs. West and slightly north of the city. If you're looking at the map, I'm above the highest curve of Delaware and east of the indentation elbow of NJ. Maybe not exactly, but that's the general area. That's how I hone myself when I'm looking at the maps.
Getting old rules.
I may be camping in your hood at Valley Forge next weekend... :shiver:I'm out in the burbs. West and slightly north of the city. If you're looking at the map, I'm above the highest curve of Delaware and east of the indentation elbow of NJ. Maybe not exactly, but that's the general area. That's how I hone myself when I'm looking at the maps.
Funny thing about the notebook is I used to remember everyone on hear and everything about them. Since I've hit 40, I know I've asked the same people multiple times where they live. And a lot of times I do it in the same thread.
Some of the mets I know seem to think the GFS and CMC are off here and will eventually correct to the UKMET and Euro. While I'm happily optimistic, I'll believe it when I see it. My burns still sting.
I'm pretty sure you are west of NJ. I thought math, not geography was your meteorological downfall.I'm out in the burbs. West and slightly north of the city. If you're looking at the map, I'm above the highest curve of Delaware and east of the indentation elbow of NJ. Maybe not exactly, but that's the general area. That's how I hone myself when I'm looking at the maps.
Happy National Weatherperson's Day GB!
Oh yeah.I'm pretty sure you are west of NJ. I thought math, not geography was your meteorological downfall.I'm out in the burbs. West and slightly north of the city. If you're looking at the map, I'm above the highest curve of Delaware and east of the indentation elbow of NJ. Maybe not exactly, but that's the general area. That's how I hone myself when I'm looking at the maps.
Overnight models show that the UKMET and Euro were wrong. Wah waaaah.</sad horn>. Storm will go north and almost completely miss C PA and SE PA. Another storm hyped by the models only to be completely wrong. Bad year for every model, really. Could be some ice up in NE PA and N NJ, but this looks like it's going to be fairly north. Just too much warm air.
