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Snowmageddon 2022 (3 Viewers)

WhatDoIKnow said:
Is it normal for a salaried employee to be forced to use a vacation or unpaid day if their business is closed because of the weather? :rolleyes:
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Have no idea if it's normal or not but the fact that the business is officially closed for the weather makes it kind of silly to make employees use there own pt. Our office allows for liberal leave which does mean use of pt if you want to get paid to not show up, but when we do close it's on the company.

 
Here’s Monday’s weather in Marlborough Ma, according to the National Weather Service:

  • Monday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. North wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
  • Monday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 18. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
 
BustedKnuckles said:
Here’s Monday’s weather in Marlborough Ma, according to the National Weather Service:

  • Monday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. North wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
  • Monday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 18. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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Do you think this covers Northboro?!

(yikes, it can be a small world)

 
IrishTwinkie said:
BustedKnuckles said:
Here’s Monday’s weather in Marlborough Ma, according to the National Weather Service:

  • Monday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. North wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
  • Monday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 18. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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Do you think this covers Northboro?!

(yikes, it can be a small world)
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id say yes, neighbor

 
Royal Caribbean's Anthem of the Seas sailed out of NJ yesterday and got hit hard in the Atlantic with this storm on the east coast. Seems they are well out of it now, but reports were pretty scary. Passengers had to ride it out in their cabin since yesterday evening.

Instagram

Tweeeder

I couldn't imagine being stuck in an inside cabin with the way the ship seemed to be moving and NOT freaking the F out.

wow

 
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My area is looking at 4 to 7 for this storm, which will last into early Wednesday. Could be more depending on where you are due to a feature that could produce much higher snow ratios and snow rates. This will be hard to pinpoint other than along the border of PA and MD area.

Next chance of snow is next week between the 15th and 17th. Looks pretty impressive this far out.

 
TheIronSheik said:
My area is looking at 4 to 7 for this storm, which will last into early Wednesday. Could be more depending on where you are due to a feature that could produce much higher snow ratios and snow rates. This will be hard to pinpoint other than along the border of PA and MD area.

Next chance of snow is next week between the 15th and 17th. Looks pretty impressive this far out.
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This is the one that could hit Ohio?

 
TheIronSheik said:
My area is looking at 4 to 7 for this storm, which will last into early Wednesday. Could be more depending on where you are due to a feature that could produce much higher snow ratios and snow rates. This will be hard to pinpoint other than along the border of PA and MD area.

Next chance of snow is next week between the 15th and 17th. Looks pretty impressive this far out.
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Thankfully Berks and Lehigh Valley looking at 3" and under...you guys can have it.

 
SwampDawg said:
TheIronSheik said:
My area is looking at 4 to 7 for this storm, which will last into early Wednesday. Could be more depending on where you are due to a feature that could produce much higher snow ratios and snow rates. This will be hard to pinpoint other than along the border of PA and MD area.

Next chance of snow is next week between the 15th and 17th. Looks pretty impressive this far out.
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Thankfully Berks and Lehigh Valley looking at 3" and under...you guys can have it.
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Don't be too sure of that. A small shift of that trough north can put heavier snow into Berks. Latest NAM shows almost a foot in S Berks.

 
Norlun troughs are tough to call. Even the models usually don't know until it happens.

ETA The models can foresee the trough but because it's such a small feature they have difficulty predicting its exact location. Models will move it around, 50 miles north one run, 50 miles south on the next. And in a Norlun 50 miles can mean the difference between 2" and 12"

 
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TheIronSheik said:
SwampDawg said:
TheIronSheik said:
My area is looking at 4 to 7 for this storm, which will last into early Wednesday. Could be more depending on where you are due to a feature that could produce much higher snow ratios and snow rates. This will be hard to pinpoint other than along the border of PA and MD area.

Next chance of snow is next week between the 15th and 17th. Looks pretty impressive this far out.
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Thankfully Berks and Lehigh Valley looking at 3" and under...you guys can have it.
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Don't be too sure of that. A small shift of that trough north can put heavier snow into Berks. Latest NAM shows almost a foot in S Berks.
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My kids will be happy.

 
This is what is referred to as a "High Bust Storm." Two things that give mets fits for snow forecasts: Cut off lows and inverted troughs. This would be the latter.

For the most part, this is going to be a general 2 to 4 inch snowfall for most areas. But wherever that trough sets up will see much higher amounts. This is also a long duration event of generally light snow. Except for the area in the trough, which will see pretty good snowfall rates.

The best example I can give of an inverted trough from recent memory is the Snow Bowl game with the Eagles and the Lions. They got a foot of snow at the Linc. But surrounding areas saw about 3 inches. Same thing.

 
Norlun produced 7.4" at my house, highest on the Mount Holly PNS. With marginal surface temps it was definitely elevation dependent as places just a few miles away and a couple hundred feet lower had half that amount.

 
Looking at a storm Monday night in to Tuesday for DC / mid Atlantic? Seems like every year around President's Day weekend a storm hits.

 
Swing 51 said:
Looking at a storm Monday night in to Tuesday for DC / mid Atlantic? Seems like every year around President's Day weekend a storm hits.
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Still to early but at this point, they're thinking snow Monday night but then mixing with sleet and freezing rain, then all rain on Monday. That would suck.

 
Depending on the track, we could see a serious snow storm, a major ice storm, or just a plain old rain storm.

I ended up getting just under 6 inches from this last storm. Trough set up was the key as places just a couple of miles away saw a little over an inch or two.

 
Monday's storm is most likely going to be one of those storms that cripples the southeast. Ice will be an issue from GA, through the Carolinas and up the eastern seaboard. Storm is definitely coming. It's just a matter of which track it takes. Models seem to be favoring a pretty good ice storm just west of 95. A long ways out, so nothing locked in just yet.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Monday's storm is most likely going to be one of those storms that cripples the southeast. Ice will be an issue from GA, through the Carolinas and up the eastern seaboard. Storm is definitely coming. It's just a matter of which track it takes. Models seem to be favoring a pretty good ice storm just west of 95. A long ways out, so nothing locked in just yet.
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Does that mean as of now, it's trending to be more of a rain event here in central jersey, Middlesex County bordering Monmouth County.

 
Not sure about down south before the trough turns negative and the storm turns north but with the cold retreating on Monday due to the lack of a cold high pressure to the north, for I95 DC north to NYC and Bos as well as suburbs this will be driving rain storm with a possible few inches of snow at the start. Easy call. Heavy snow will be in areas NW of a Harrisburgh/Scranton/Albany/Burlington geographical line. Even the areas west of there hoping for snow will have to wish that it doesn't drift further west.

Locally it will be crazy to go from temps below zero on Sun morning to rain on Tuesday. Happened twice last year.

 
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Chappy said:
TheIronSheik said:
Monday's storm is most likely going to be one of those storms that cripples the southeast. Ice will be an issue from GA, through the Carolinas and up the eastern seaboard. Storm is definitely coming. It's just a matter of which track it takes. Models seem to be favoring a pretty good ice storm just west of 95. A long ways out, so nothing locked in just yet.
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Does that mean as of now, it's trending to be more of a rain event here in central jersey, Middlesex County bordering Monmouth County.
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Yes. As of now.

 
JetMaxx said:
Not sure about down south before the trough turns negative and the storm turns north but with the cold retreating on Monday due to the lack of a cold high pressure to the north, for I95 DC north to NYC and Bos as well as suburbs this will be driving rain storm with a possible few inches of snow at the start. Easy call. Heavy snow will be in areas NW of a Harrisburgh/Scranton/Albany/Burlington geographical line. Even the areas west of there hoping for snow will have to wish that it doesn't drift further west.

Locally it will be crazy to go from temps below zero on Sun morning to rain on Tuesday. Happened twice last year.
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Not quite sure how it's an easy call when the track still hasn't been determined. I respectfully disagree with your thoughts on that.

 
If I'm not mistaken all guidance including the ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro at this time supports that call and looking at the synoptic set up there's not much available to change it to an off the coast the track supporting big snows along 95. Also I don't really see much of an CAD/ice signal in our area due to retreating high. I obviously could be wrong but it looks like a brief period of snow then the cold at all levels gets scoured out rather quickly by a screaming SE wind.

 
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JetMaxx said:
If I'm not mistaken all guidance including the ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro at this time supports that call and looking at the synoptic set up there's not much available to change it to an off the coast the track supporting big snows along 95. Also I don't really see much of an CAD/ice signal in our area due to retreating high. I obviously could be wrong but it looks like a brief period of snow then the cold at all levels gets scoured out rather quickly by a screaming SE wind.
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The models have the basic track down, in the fact that it's going to hit the east coast. But there is definitely wiggle room on exact track and models have been having a tough time nailing one down. Not much consistency run to run. If it comes in west of 95, it'll be snow to ice to rain for us. Up 95, snow to ice. And just east of 95 gives us all snow. And most likely, quite a thumping of snow. Waiting to see the new runs to see if any of them are trending to a consensus.

 
TheIronSheik said:
JetMaxx said:
If I'm not mistaken all guidance including the ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro at this time supports that call and looking at the synoptic set up there's not much available to change it to an off the coast the track supporting big snows along 95. Also I don't really see much of an CAD/ice signal in our area due to retreating high. I obviously could be wrong but it looks like a brief period of snow then the cold at all levels gets scoured out rather quickly by a screaming SE wind.
Click to expand...
The models have the basic track down, in the fact that it's going to hit the east coast. But there is definitely wiggle room on exact track and models have been having a tough time nailing one down. Not much consistency run to run. If it comes in west of 95, it'll be snow to ice to rain for us. Up 95, snow to ice. And just east of 95 gives us all snow. And most likely, quite a thumping of snow. Waiting to see the new runs to see if any of them are trending to a consensus.
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All models depict that the 850/925/surface temps all warm at relatively the same time. Not an ice signal for us. And I don't think one model shows an all snow or snow to ice depiction for us.Only thing that could affect the snow is as you said, the early thump if the WAA gets it going earlier than the models show(as is often the case). But it appears that this is primarily a rain storm for us as it stands now.

 
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JetMaxx said:
TheIronSheik said:
JetMaxx said:
If I'm not mistaken all guidance including the ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro at this time supports that call and looking at the synoptic set up there's not much available to change it to an off the coast the track supporting big snows along 95. Also I don't really see much of an CAD/ice signal in our area due to retreating high. I obviously could be wrong but it looks like a brief period of snow then the cold at all levels gets scoured out rather quickly by a screaming SE wind.
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The models have the basic track down, in the fact that it's going to hit the east coast. But there is definitely wiggle room on exact track and models have been having a tough time nailing one down. Not much consistency run to run. If it comes in west of 95, it'll be snow to ice to rain for us. Up 95, snow to ice. And just east of 95 gives us all snow. And most likely, quite a thumping of snow. Waiting to see the new runs to see if any of them are trending to a consensus.
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All models depict that the 850/925/surface temps all warm at relatively the same time. Not an ice signal for us. And I don't think one model shows an all snow or snow to ice depiction for us.Only thing that could affect the snow is as you said, the early thump if the WAA gets it going earlier than the models show(as is often the case). But it appears that this is primarily a rain storm for us as it stands now.
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The storm will bring its own cold air. That, with the Arctic air in place this weekend is what will make this dicey. Again, this isn't just my thoughts. Most pro mets are calling this a very tricky forecast for the I 95 area.

 
TheIronSheik said:
JetMaxx said:
TheIronSheik said:
JetMaxx said:
If I'm not mistaken all guidance including the ensemble means of both the GFS and Euro at this time supports that call and looking at the synoptic set up there's not much available to change it to an off the coast the track supporting big snows along 95. Also I don't really see much of an CAD/ice signal in our area due to retreating high. I obviously could be wrong but it looks like a brief period of snow then the cold at all levels gets scoured out rather quickly by a screaming SE wind.
Click to expand...
The models have the basic track down, in the fact that it's going to hit the east coast. But there is definitely wiggle room on exact track and models have been having a tough time nailing one down. Not much consistency run to run. If it comes in west of 95, it'll be snow to ice to rain for us. Up 95, snow to ice. And just east of 95 gives us all snow. And most likely, quite a thumping of snow. Waiting to see the new runs to see if any of them are trending to a consensus.
Click to expand...
All models depict that the 850/925/surface temps all warm at relatively the same time. Not an ice signal for us. And I don't think one model shows an all snow or snow to ice depiction for us.Only thing that could affect the snow is as you said, the early thump if the WAA gets it going earlier than the models show(as is often the case). But it appears that this is primarily a rain storm for us as it stands now.
Click to expand...
The storm will bring its own cold air. That, with the Arctic air in place this weekend is what will make this dicey. Again, this isn't just my thoughts. Most pro mets are calling this a very tricky forecast for the I 95 area.
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Well all forecasts are inherently tricky. ;) With all due respect to your pro met friends, this storm will not generate its own cold air in such a way to cause the storm to remain all snow in areas SE of the mountains, including our area. Now timing and track? Yes that's a possibility, if it were to arrive earlier and shift east somewhat and keep a NE'erly wind component, we will remain snow longer. But even in that scenario we flip to a substantial amount of rain after the snow. Lack of high causes that. Definitely interesting to see how it unfolds as the GFS and GGem came in slightly east and weaker which helps to hold the snow slightly longer. The better Ukmet and Euro models seem to hold on to the westerly driving rainstorm idea.

 
Local NWS forecast for my area. I've been following the local weather for a long time and don't recall a temp/wind combo as brutal as what's forecasted here:

Saturday A chance of flurries before 8am, then a chance of flurries with isolated snow showers between 8am and noon. Partly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 11 by 4pm. Wind chill values as low as -8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph.

Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 0. Wind chill values as low as -15. Northwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

Sunday Sunny, with a high near 15. Northwest wind 7 to 13 mph.

Snow starts Monday, goes to rain early Tuesday.

 
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