So how can we actually defeat Trump in 2020? (1 Viewer)

[jomar]

I think a lot of people who voted for Trump in 2016 would prefer not to vote for him in 2020, but it will depend in part on who the alternative is. I suspect a lot of right-leaning people would vote for a left-leaning centrist over Trump, but would vote for Trump over an extreme leftist.

Trump beat the left leaning centrist in 2016

personally, I think the Democrats could trot out anyone and win.  the only way Trump wins in 2020 is if his buddy Vlad can rig the election

 

[joffer]

I don't think going after Trump is the problem.  It is the extension to his voters or supporters that I think is the issue.  Calling them names is what pisses them off.

So instead of “ignorant hick”, maybe “information-challenged rodeo aficionado”?

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

Refer to Trump constantly as the Pornstar President.

Crowbar in whenever you can how he was banging pornstars while his wife was at home with newborn baby.  On the debate stage this should be brought up.  It should be addressed to Trump when the head to head debate happens.  He will squirm and have no answer.  

This should be a constant talking point like crooked hillary and emails.

Cheating and porn repulse white woman and old religious righties.  Depress their turnout.

So, when introduced in the first debate and he offers his hand you reel back and say, I'm not touching that thing since I do know where its been.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

So instead of “ignorant hick”, maybe “information-challenged rodeo aficionado”?

Maybe shorten to Nascar fan.

 

[ffldrew]

This was my theory a few months ago. But two things: 

1. South Carolina will absolutely affect who has momentum going into California. 

2. California isn’t winner takes all. So it is much more likely that we will simply cement the storyline already existing rather than create a new one. 

I'm sorry Tim - Super Tuesday is 3 days after SC not 7.

There isn't enough time to use a win in SC(which is a Saturday) as a stepping stone in 3 days. Ad buys and appearances will already be done and there are other larger states like North Carolina, Texas, Mass to fight over.

As to point 2 - the media will declare a "winner" and at that point no one will remember what happened in a little state like SC. What SC might predict is how a voter in Alabama, Arkansas or Tennessee might fair - and to some degree NC. But this time around we won't have that dead space being dominated by what happened in non-Democratic southern states like those above. It will be California, California, California dominating the entire news cycle for that period.

 

[ffldrew]

Refer to Trump constantly as the Pornstar President.

Crowbar in whenever you can how he was banging pornstars while his wife was at home with newborn baby.  On the debate stage this should be brought up.  It should be addressed to Trump when the head to head debate happens.  He will squirm and have no answer.  

This should be a constant talking point like crooked hillary and emails.

Cheating and porn repulse white woman and old religious righties.  Depress their turnout.

This is where Biden missed an opportunity last week after Trump called him weak. He should have had a press conference at the White House and point out that weak is banging a pornstar and breaking your vows to a woman who just had your child. That it is the definition of weak character. He could have turned the whole debate away from the busing crap and shown that he can attack and he wouldn't be Mr. Nice Guy Joe.

 

[Stealthycat]

this is why Trump will be hard to beat - what he's doing is very smart/savvy IMO 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/19/opinions/squad-is-a-gift-to-trump-jennings/index.html

 

[roadkill1292]

Here's the excellent Ronald Brownstein writing today about one of the issues we're discussing in here -- how the '16 independent vote is shaping up for '20. He defines these "conflicted voters" as  

Nearly two-thirds of the conflicted voters are men, compared with just under half of the overall electorate. Compared with all voters, they are also more suburban (60 percent), slightly wealthier (70 percent earn $50,000 or more), better educated (45 percent have college degrees), and somewhat younger (56 percent are under 50 years old). Fully one-third of them, more than might be expected, are nonwhite.

This group went for Hilary by seven points (30% voted third party) but went for Dem candidates last year by 20 points. If Donald can't carry independents and the young people turn out like experts are anticipating, he's toast and not just in the upper midwest.

 

[Mile High]

this is why Trump will be hard to beat - what he's doing is very smart/savvy IMO 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/19/opinions/squad-is-a-gift-to-trump-jennings/index.html

? Today and just a few days ago Trump is telling everyone how unpopular they are in their own state or districts. So we are to believe the face of the Democratics are hugely unpopular house of representatives members?

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

2. California isn’t winner takes all. So it is much more likely that we will simply cement the storyline already existing rather than create a new one. 

None of the Democratic primaries are winner-takes-all.

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

When did the democrats, the party of liberals and progressives, become so conservative, so calculating, so bowing to apparent political expedience.  Roosevelt was not that way, nor Truman, nor Kennedy, nor Obama.  Embrace what you are.  Reject conservative tendencies, safe tendencies, reach to the future, don't embrace the past, particularly when the past is cold oatmeal, I mean Joe Biden.

 

[[scooter]]

This is where Biden missed an opportunity last week after Trump called him weak. He should have had a press conference at the White House and point out that weak is banging a pornstar and breaking your vows to a woman who just had your child. That it is the definition of weak character. He could have turned the whole debate away from the busing crap and shown that he can attack and he wouldn't be Mr. Nice Guy Joe.

Instead he went full Mandelbaum.

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Refer to Trump constantly as the Pornstar President.

Crowbar in whenever you can how he was banging pornstars while his wife was at home with newborn baby.  On the debate stage this should be brought up.  It should be addressed to Trump when the head to head debate happens.  He will squirm and have no answer.  

This should be a constant talking point like crooked hillary and emails.

Cheating and porn repulse white woman and old religious righties.  Depress their turnout.

I agree, you can't take the high road with Trump.  You need to get down and dirty and beat him at his game.  He singlehandedly ruined Hillary Clinton's legacy with that stupid nickname.

 

[sho nuff]

I feel like any Democrat can win by simply promoting a return to decency and/or civility.

That's basically how Carter won in '76 and how GW Bush won in 2000.

You would hope.  But their oponents didn't have the unwavering support Trump has.

 

[tommyGunZ]

When did the democrats, the party of liberals and progressives, become so conservative, so calculating, so bowing to apparent political expedience.  Roosevelt was not that way, nor Truman, nor Kennedy, nor Obama.  Embrace what you are.  Reject conservative tendencies, safe tendencies, reach to the future, don't embrace the past, particularly when the past is cold oatmeal, I mean Joe Biden.

I agree with your overall point that Democrats should go big and prioritize choosing the candidate that best reflects their beliefs over the candidate they think is most likely to win.  I can't speak for Roosevelt, Truman, or Kennedy, but I do think that Obama (the best President of my lifetime IMO) made concessions due to political expedience.  Specifically, I think Obama personally is far more progressive on issues of race and LGBT than he articulated. 

FWIW - I'm supporting Liz Warren the primary, but will support anyone/anything (including a jar of mayonnaise) in the general election.  

 

[Max Power]

Dems are in danger of losing the black vote if they keep pressing this open border stuff.  The black communities get the hardest by illegal immigration and they know this.

 

[sho nuff]

? Today and just a few days ago Trump is telling everyone how unpopular they are in their own state or districts. So we are to believe the face of the Democratics are hugely unpopular house of representatives members?

Its a continued push by Trump to make the election about people who arent running.  Because he cant beat those that are based on themselves.

 

[sho nuff]

Dems are in danger of losing the black vote if they keep pressing this open border stuff.  The black communities get the hardest by illegal immigration and they know this.

Quick, which candidate is for open borders?

African American vote went 95% dem in 2018

 

[tommyGunZ]

I don't think going after Trump is the problem.  It is the extension to his voters or supporters that I think is the issue.  Calling them names is what pisses them off.

I thought Trump voters hated "PC" culture, and liked people who "tell it like it is".  Are you suggesting that's not true, and that we should be careful of what words we use to describe their actions?  

 

[Jayrod]

I agree, you can't take the high road with Trump.  You need to get down and dirty and beat him at his game.  He singlehandedly ruined Hillary Clinton's legacy with that stupid nickname.

No, he played up her biggest weakness...decades of rumors around activity and transactions dating back to her days in Arkansas and continuing through as Secretary of State. 

Bill Clinton, despite his political success, is still seen as a sleazeball and she stayed hitched to that wagon the whole time, but she didn't have his charm or charisma to offset it.

 

[[scooter]]

Dems are in danger of losing the black vote if they keep pressing this open border stuff.  The black communities get the hardest by illegal immigration and they know this.

This is where Trump's constant crowing about the black unemployment rate can backfire.

He can't say "Illegals will take your jobs!" because we already have 11 million illegals and yet blacks are doing better than ever.

A savvy politician might even go so far as to point out that the illegals are doing the minimum wage jobs that used to be reserved for black workers -- allowing blacks to move up the economic ladder.

 

[supermike80]

Vote for someone else?   

 

[Jayrod]

I thought Trump voters hated "PC" culture, and liked people who "tell it like it is".  Are you suggesting that's not true, and that we should be careful of what words we use to describe their actions?  

I suggest you don't insult them unilaterally, especially their intelligence, character or value to society.

 

[Mile High]

Dems are in danger of losing the black vote if they keep pressing this open border stuff.  The black communities get the hardest by illegal immigration and they know this.

Oh yes, If not for illegal immigrants,  blacks can work as maids and work manual labor jobs. 

 

[[scooter]]

I thought Trump voters hated "PC" culture, and liked people who "tell it like it is".  Are you suggesting that's not true, and that we should be careful of what words we use to describe their actions?  

I suggest you don't insult them unilaterally, especially their intelligence, character or value to society.

This is a good point. "Cling to guns and religion" and "Basket of deplorables" do nothing but solidify their allegiance to the (R).

 

[bear]

No, he played up her biggest weakness...decades of rumors around activity and transactions dating back to her days in Arkansas and continuing through as Secretary of State. 

Bill Clinton, despite his political success, is still seen as a sleazeball and she stayed hitched to that wagon the whole time, but she didn't have his charm or charisma to offset it.

In spite of these decades of “rumors” and seemingly endless investigations the right has never found anything legitimate on H Clinton.  It has been sop for the right to try to denigrate their opponents for decades.  Truth doesn’t matter.  It is reprehensible but that is the modern day right in this country. 

 

[fatguyinalittlecoat]

This is a good point. "Cling to guns and religion" and "Basket of deplorables" do nothing but solidify their allegiance to the (R).

Except that both of the phrases you mention were taken out of context and used by right wing media to rile up those voters.  I don't really think it's possible to avoid.  We might as well call all Trump voters racist, because if you choose your words very carefully and make sure never to paint with a broad brush, right wing media will nevertheless portray your remarks as "Trump voters are racist idiots."

 

[Mario Kart]

So how can we actually defeat Trump in 2020?

How can anyone begin to talk policy with a government official when a government official thinks like this?

Ted Crockett lost the primary so he is not an elected official right now.

 

[timschochet]

When did the democrats, the party of liberals and progressives, become so conservative, so calculating, so bowing to apparent political expedience.  Roosevelt was not that way, nor Truman, nor Kennedy, nor Obama.  Embrace what you are.  Reject conservative tendencies, safe tendencies, reach to the future, don't embrace the past, particularly when the past is cold oatmeal, I mean Joe Biden.

Not sure where you’re getting your history. FDR, Truman, Kennedy and Obama were exactly that way. Not a single one of them ran as progressive Democrats. All 4 of them ran as centrists. FDR didn’t govern that way but the other 3 did. And all 4 were pragmatists. 

 

[roadkill1292]

According to my twitter feeds, the NYT is running a piece today detailing what I call the "nightmare scenario" of the Dem candidate winning by even more votes than Hilldog did but losing the EC because of an even more absurd vote distribution within a few key states.

I prefer to think that Donald is already behind the eight ball. Re-run 2016 right now (heck, a year ago) with all demographics voting  the same ways and at the same turnout levels and he would have lost. So he and those predicting a Trump victory have to believe that there is still a bonanza of mostly older white people without college degrees out there still to be had (and who didn't vote in '16). 

Those are the kinds of things I tell myself whenever I think about Donald being a lame duck president for four years.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

If "we" want to stop Trump from being reelected, if this is "goal one" then step one is not to allow ourselves to believe that the only legitimate challenger to Donald Trump is "just as bad".   There is no one that is "too extreme to the left", "too much a corporate democrat", "too much of a war monger", "too corrupt", etc., etc. in comparison to Trump.  No one is a "greater evil" as there is no other "evil" other than Donald Trump.  There is no excuse to argue that any of the democrats "failed to earn your vote" so instead you voted for the third party candidate that didn't even try to earn your vote.  Yes, I understand you don't like believing that there is only once choice in defeating Trump in fully support the democratic candidate, but reality isn't about what "we" may like.  Anything else may not throw an actual vote to Trump, but it certainly is not doing everything possible to prevent a Trump reelection.  Anything else means that some other goal was more important than defeating Trump's reelection bid.

 

[the moops]

We need to win Wisconsin,, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 

Not necessarily. Can get there with

FL + AZ

or

FL + one of WI/MI/AZ

There are even some other avenues where the DEMS win IA and pair that win with AZ + MI + WI. 

So yes, if they wil WI + MI + PA there really isn't a path to victory for Trump, but even if the DEMS lose all three of those states, they have a path to the Whitehouse

 

[the moops]

We need to win Wisconsin,, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 

Not necessarily. Can get there with

FL + AZ

or

FL + one of WI/MI/AZ

There are even some other avenues where the DEMS win IA and pair that win with AZ + MI + WI. 

So yes, if they wil WI + MI + PA there really isn't a path to victory for Trump, but even if the DEMS lose all three of those states, they have a path to the Whitehouse

 

[roadkill1292]

Agreed. We shouldn't have to be talking about "electability." Once the candidate is nominated, it's time for all oars in the water. There's nobody in that neverending list of candidates worse for the country than Donald J. Trump.

Crap, I was actually responding to Bottomfeeder a couple of posts up. But I like Moops's work in the interim, too.

 

[Jayrod]

If "we" want to stop Trump from being reelected, if this is "goal one" then step one is not to allow ourselves to believe that the only legitimate challenger to Donald Trump is "just as bad".   There is no one that is "too extreme to the left", "too much a corporate democrat", "too much of a war monger", "too corrupt", etc., etc. in comparison to Trump.  No one is a "greater evil" as there is no other "evil" other than Donald Trump.  There is no excuse to argue that any of the democrats "failed to earn your vote" so instead you voted for the third party candidate that didn't even try to earn your vote.  Yes, I understand you don't like believing that there is only once choice in defeating Trump in fully support the democratic candidate, but reality isn't about what "we" may like.  Anything else may not throw an actual vote to Trump, but it certainly is not doing everything possible to prevent a Trump reelection.  Anything else means that some other goal was more important than defeating Trump's reelection bid.

Agreed. We shouldn't have to be talking about "electability." Once the candidate is nominated, it's time for all oars in the water. There's nobody in that neverending list of candidates worse for the country than Donald J. Trump.

I agree with you guys, but we aren't the issue.  It is the voters that are on the fence.  That is where the "electability" part comes in.  I don't care who the other nominee is, but a lot of people will.

 

[roadkill1292]

A small part, no, maybe a big part of me is terrified of waking up the day after the 2020 election and found that Donald Trump's most recent four years in office hadn't convinced huge numbers of voters to vote for his opponent. I fully admit that that scenario continues to be possible.

 

[Daywalker]

This is where Biden missed an opportunity last week after Trump called him weak. He should have had a press conference at the White House and point out that weak is banging a pornstar and breaking your vows to a woman who just had your child. That it is the definition of weak character. He could have turned the whole debate away from the busing crap and shown that he can attack and he wouldn't be Mr. Nice Guy Joe.

You also have the Epstein relationship now.

Trump saying, "I hear he likes them on the young side."

What did you mean by that Donald?

 

[timschochet]

Not necessarily. Can get there with

FL + AZ

or

FL + one of WI/MI/AZ

There are even some other avenues where the DEMS win IA and pair that win with AZ + MI + WI. 

So yes, if they wil WI + MI + PA there really isn't a path to victory for Trump, but even if the DEMS lose all three of those states, they have a path to the Whitehouse

When Florida lost the governorship to a Trump clone in 2018 I wrote it off. If the Puerto Rican vote was going to make a difference it should have happened then. But the Republican still won. 

Arizona I don’t believe until it happens. 

 

[the moops]

Glad you have the entire political landscaped figured out for 2020 tim

 

[tommyGunZ]

If "we" want to stop Trump from being reelected, if this is "goal one" then step one is not to allow ourselves to believe that the only legitimate challenger to Donald Trump is "just as bad".   There is no one that is "too extreme to the left", "too much a corporate democrat", "too much of a war monger", "too corrupt", etc., etc. in comparison to Trump.  No one is a "greater evil" as there is no other "evil" other than Donald Trump.  There is no excuse to argue that any of the democrats "failed to earn your vote" so instead you voted for the third party candidate that didn't even try to earn your vote.  Yes, I understand you don't like believing that there is only once choice in defeating Trump in fully support the democratic candidate, but reality isn't about what "we" may like.  Anything else may not throw an actual vote to Trump, but it certainly is not doing everything possible to prevent a Trump reelection.  Anything else means that some other goal was more important than defeating Trump's reelection bid.

This.  Is.  EXACTLY.  Right. 

 

[timschochet]

Glad you have the entire political landscaped figured out for 2020 tim

I try my best LOL

 

[tommyGunZ]

Agreed. We shouldn't have to be talking about "electability." Once the candidate is nominated, it's time for all oars in the water. There's nobody in that neverending list of candidates worse for the country than Donald J. Trump.

Crap, I was actually responding to Bottomfeeder a couple of posts up. But I like Moops's work in the interim, too.

Surprisingly, there are liberals on this board who don't agree.  It's mind boggling.  

 

[da_budman]

I agree, you can't take the high road with Trump.  You need to get down and dirty and beat him at his game.  He singlehandedly ruined Hillary Clinton's legacy with that stupid nickname.

Hillary Clinton had high unfavorables well before Trump showed up.  Her actions  plus non stop Republican led investigations (most for nothing but political gain)  saw to that.  No chance...zero...that whowever the dems end up with as a candidate is as despised as Hillary was.  Getting down and dirty is the opposite of what the dems need to do.  Theres an old country saying that goes  never  wallow in the mud with a pig.....  you get dirty and the pig loves it.  It amazed me how much the republicans did that in the primaries last time around...and it played right into his hands.  

 

[ren hoek]

The consensus appears to be that Trump is far and away the worst president of all time, and should get landslid by any reasonably palatable Dem in 2020.  But I think he's extremely formidable going into 2020.  He's the most popular president within his own party since WWII, with the exception of George Bush after 9/11.  He will have the support of a multibillion dollar political machine.  He's played the media like a fiddle; they're rolling in cash thanks to him and they appreciate it.  They don't challenge him in a serious way so much as bathe in the ratings bonanza he gives them every night.  Our culture is forever saturated with Trump.  We're careening through a reality show and the press is asleep at the wheel.  

I'm convinced the Democratic party is so feckless, so unmoored by belief in an actual principle, that they would rather lose to Trump and please their mutual donor base than run someone that would actually challenge the system.  The game is rigged and they're ok with it.  Remember, the debates are just a thin veneer over a backroom process.  

The winner of the 2020 election will be the candidate seen as more populist, more antiestablishment.  If Democrats run another milquetoast centrist again, they will lose.   I don't think there's nearly as many people yearning for the good old days of "norms" as mass media likes to make us think.  People will just stay home or vote Trump if they don't see a compelling alternative.  

 

[AAABatteries]

Refer to Trump constantly as the Pornstar President.

Crowbar in whenever you can how he was banging pornstars while his wife was at home with newborn baby.  On the debate stage this should be brought up.  It should be addressed to Trump when the head to head debate happens.  He will squirm and have no answer.  

This should be a constant talking point like crooked hillary and emails.

Cheating and porn repulse white woman and old religious righties.  Depress their turnout.

As much as I'd like to disagree, I actually think this isn't a bad strategy - maybe not the top few things I'd do but I wouldn't shy away from addressing it or at a minimum have everyone but the candidate hammer it.

 

[Widbil83]

Quick, which candidate is for open borders?

African American vote went 95% dem in 2018

He’s not wrong at all.  I’ve been saying it since the Democrat first debate free health care for illegals/we want open borders debacle.

 

[sho nuff]

He’s not wrong at all.  I’ve been saying it since the Democrat first debate free health care for illegals/we want open borders debacle.

Its a simple question...which candidates are for open borders?

And none of them said feee healthcare for illegals. Please quit being dishonest.  

 

[lazyike]

get illegally here people voting would help

seriously ..... the Democratic candidate that could talk tough on illegals, not be so hard on pro-abortion, not be anti-gun  ....  and denounce the radical socialists that are surrounding Talib and AOC etc ... such a candidate could potentially take enough voters from Trump 

if i were running against Trump? I'd try to attack his policies and not him ... people are hating this 4 years of anti-Trump hate

I actually disagree......if President Trump wasn't so unpresidential, dishonest and a cyber bully etc I think his approval rating would be in the 50+ percent range. I think there are going to be millions of "anyone but Trump voters" in 2020 ranging from conservatives to progressives based on his abrasive personality.

 

[GROOT]

Its a simple question...which candidates are for open borders?

And none of them said feee healthcare for illegals. Please quit being dishonest.  

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/27/all_dem_candidates_raise_hand_when_asked_if_illegal_immigrants_should_get_health_care_coverage_at_debate.html

 

[sho nuff]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/27/all_dem_candidates_raise_hand_when_asked_if_illegal_immigrants_should_get_health_care_coverage_at_debate.html

So yiu agree...none of them said “Free” healthcare for illegals.