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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)

Most of my stuff has turned around now. AAPL, which is still taking a beating, being the main exception.
Add any AAPL or home tight ?
Personally I'm heavy enough into AAPL and tech in general that I don't think I'll be adding at this level. Certainly open to other's thoughts on the matter, though.
I still think Apple is extended. The stock price never really cratered when everything else did and then it’s still doubled since then. The growth is just not there IMHO to support the multiples (lots of that out there). Looking at revenue, 2024 revenue is up 8% total over 2021 revenue in 3 years and less than 1% over 2022. iPhone sales have not been good. It’s been a faster cycle but it reminds me of PCs and the Internet where once they were faster enough to run all applications and a browser, why upgrade? I would bet that 90%+ of all IT laptop upgrades are due to employees complaining about battery issues or screen issues or general problems and not because Salesforce runs too slow. By the time AI apps back up hypes, we’ll all be on AI ready iPhones or have Apps that do whatever we need and what iPhone model we have won’t matter. I sometimes forget if I’m on an iPhone 14 or 15. Not that long ago, being on a new model of the iPhone was huge. It’s not anymore.
 
Most of my stuff has turned around now. AAPL, which is still taking a beating, being the main exception.
Add any AAPL or home tight ?
Personally I'm heavy enough into AAPL and tech in general that I don't think I'll be adding at this level. Certainly open to other's thoughts on the matter, though.
I still think Apple is extended. The stock price never really cratered when everything else did and then it’s still doubled since then. The growth is just not there IMHO to support the multiples (lots of that out there). Looking at revenue, 2024 revenue is up 8% total over 2021 revenue in 3 years and less than 1% over 2022. iPhone sales have not been good. It’s been a faster cycle but it reminds me of PCs and the Internet where once they were faster enough to run all applications and a browser, why upgrade? I would bet that 90%+ of all IT laptop upgrades are due to employees complaining about battery issues or screen issues or general problems and not because Salesforce runs too slow. By the time AI apps back up hypes, we’ll all be on AI ready iPhones or have Apps that do whatever we need and what iPhone model we have won’t matter. I sometimes forget if I’m on an iPhone 14 or 15. Not that long ago, being on a new model of the iPhone was huge. It’s not anymore.
Quibble a bit at the end here because iPhones have always felt like they are slow/lagging when adopting new features compared to others. I don't think the bold has been a big driver for a while. I do think you need a somewhat later model to run their AI. As usual, they drive the obsolescence through the software side.

The China tariff stuff could be real and agree this isn't enough of a pull back to get me very interested yet.
 
I just upgraded to a 15 after 4 years, battery life was the big issue plus I was right on the cusp of where a trade-in of my old phone would have zero value if I waited much longer. But I do wonder what the growth driver is currently? My apple watch was okay 4 years ago (switched to a Garmin I love this go around.) my iPad is just a toy I mainly use when traveling. I’ve got a set of EarPods I haven’t upgraded in 4 years and see no need to upgrade them. I am sure Apple does other things that drives revenue but I don’t know what those are anymore.

Edit: but the stock keeps marching on and I haven’t sold…
 
Most of my stuff has turned around now. AAPL, which is still taking a beating, being the main exception.
Add any AAPL or home tight ?
Personally I'm heavy enough into AAPL and tech in general that I don't think I'll be adding at this level. Certainly open to other's thoughts on the matter, though.
I still think Apple is extended. The stock price never really cratered when everything else did and then it’s still doubled since then. The growth is just not there IMHO to support the multiples (lots of that out there). Looking at revenue, 2024 revenue is up 8% total over 2021 revenue in 3 years and less than 1% over 2022. iPhone sales have not been good. It’s been a faster cycle but it reminds me of PCs and the Internet where once they were faster enough to run all applications and a browser, why upgrade? I would bet that 90%+ of all IT laptop upgrades are due to employees complaining about battery issues or screen issues or general problems and not because Salesforce runs too slow. By the time AI apps back up hypes, we’ll all be on AI ready iPhones or have Apps that do whatever we need and what iPhone model we have won’t matter. I sometimes forget if I’m on an iPhone 14 or 15. Not that long ago, being on a new model of the iPhone was huge. It’s not anymore.
Quibble a bit at the end here because iPhones have always felt like they are slow/lagging when adopting new features compared to others. I don't think the bold has been a big driver for a while. I do think you need a somewhat later model to run their AI. As usual, they drive the obsolescence through the software side.

The China tariff stuff could be real and agree this isn't enough of a pull back to get me very interested yet.
I will quibble damn it. Yes, in the real world they were a bit slow but nobody cared about the random dudes you know that ruin group chats with their “superior” Android phones. Going from 3Gs to 5 was a giant leap. When you got the 6 plus, it was cool. The X over the 8s/9s. The 6.1 inch iPhone 11/12. Since then, iPhone 16 was supposed to be a huge change with all the AI ready stuff that wasn’t ready. I can’t really remember what’s different now from 11-16 except maybe an extra camera lens. The cameras have been good enough for years and there were big jumps in the earlier models.
 
Most of my stuff has turned around now. AAPL, which is still taking a beating, being the main exception.
Add any AAPL or home tight ?
Personally I'm heavy enough into AAPL and tech in general that I don't think I'll be adding at this level. Certainly open to other's thoughts on the matter, though.
I still think Apple is extended. The stock price never really cratered when everything else did and then it’s still doubled since then. The growth is just not there IMHO to support the multiples (lots of that out there). Looking at revenue, 2024 revenue is up 8% total over 2021 revenue in 3 years and less than 1% over 2022. iPhone sales have not been good. It’s been a faster cycle but it reminds me of PCs and the Internet where once they were faster enough to run all applications and a browser, why upgrade? I would bet that 90%+ of all IT laptop upgrades are due to employees complaining about battery issues or screen issues or general problems and not because Salesforce runs too slow. By the time AI apps back up hypes, we’ll all be on AI ready iPhones or have Apps that do whatever we need and what iPhone model we have won’t matter. I sometimes forget if I’m on an iPhone 14 or 15. Not that long ago, being on a new model of the iPhone was huge. It’s not anymore.
Quibble a bit at the end here because iPhones have always felt like they are slow/lagging when adopting new features compared to others. I don't think the bold has been a big driver for a while. I do think you need a somewhat later model to run their AI. As usual, they drive the obsolescence through the software side.

The China tariff stuff could be real and agree this isn't enough of a pull back to get me very interested yet.
I will quibble damn it. Yes, in the real world they were a bit slow but nobody cared about the random dudes you know that ruin group chats with their “superior” Android phones. Going from 3Gs to 5 was a giant leap. When you got the 6 plus, it was cool. The X over the 8s/9s. The 6.1 inch iPhone 11/12. Since then, iPhone 16 was supposed to be a huge change with all the AI ready stuff that wasn’t ready. I can’t really remember what’s different now from 11-16 except maybe an extra camera lens. The cameras have been good enough for years and there were big jumps in the earlier models.
Yeah, I do think they really keep out doing themselves on the camera front. And Android is still vastly superior but Apple does have them beat on their stupid Messaging walled garden.
 
The markets shrugging off all Trump’s tariff statements is really surprising. He said he would do this for months and that he loved Tariffs. Honestly should have been priced in.
Then wouldn't it not be surprising that the marketing is shrugging it off, if its priced in.
I wouldn’t call this mornings price action shrugging it off. But maybe my post wasn’t clear. I am saying markets thinking this wasn’t coming and it was all negotiation.
It's still likely in negotiation.
What's he negotiating for? Who knows
With Canada there is confusion (at least for me) as to the ultimate goal. With Mexico it's going to be help with immigration and fentanyl. To tie that in with the markets that seems to be what the markets are thinking, as well. We're really not down that much. These tariffs are negotiating sticks. The one with Mexico is already suspended.
 
Other than my company stock that for some reason is currently down over 8% and ETH which is down 20% in five days, glad to see the volatility I expected hasn't materialized. Although I was prepared to put more money to work if it did.

I am particularly interested in seeing how Gold and LT Treasuries act over the coming days/months. I sure wouldn't mind seeing the treasury and equity correlation we've been seeing over the past few years break down a bit. It's hard to diversify when things that are supposed to act differently in various environments stop doing so!
 
I just upgraded to a 15 after 4 years, battery life was the big issue plus I was right on the cusp of where a trade-in of my old phone would have zero value if I waited much longer. But I do wonder what the growth driver is currently? My apple watch was okay 4 years ago (switched to a Garmin I love this go around.) my iPad is just a toy I mainly use when traveling. I’ve got a set of EarPods I haven’t upgraded in 4 years and see no need to upgrade them. I am sure Apple does other things that drives revenue but I don’t know what those are anymore.

Edit: but the stock keeps marching on and I haven’t sold…

I set my wife up with a new phone. Got the same case for it. Took her three weeks to figure out it was swapped because she tried to plug a lightning cable into it and thought she broke it.
 
We
The markets shrugging off all Trump’s tariff statements is really surprising. He said he would do this for months and that he loved Tariffs. Honestly should have been priced in.
Then wouldn't it not be surprising that the marketing is shrugging it off, if its priced in.
I wouldn’t call this mornings price action shrugging it off. But maybe my post wasn’t clear. I am saying markets thinking this wasn’t coming and it was all negotiation.
It's still likely in negotiation.
What's he negotiating for? Who knows
With Canada there is confusion (at least for me) as to the ultimate goal. With Mexico it's going to be help with immigration and fentanyl. To tie that in with the markets that seems to be what the markets are thinking, as well. We're really not down that much. These tariffs are negotiating sticks. The one with Mexico is already suspended.
Well, for negotiating purposes, it's best he doesn't US or even those nations what he ultimately wants, at least not up front.

Sorry, I'll stop, back to stonks.
 
I just upgraded to a 15 after 4 years, battery life was the big issue plus I was right on the cusp of where a trade-in of my old phone would have zero value if I waited much longer. But I do wonder what the growth driver is currently? My apple watch was okay 4 years ago (switched to a Garmin I love this go around.) my iPad is just a toy I mainly use when traveling. I’ve got a set of EarPods I haven’t upgraded in 4 years and see no need to upgrade them. I am sure Apple does other things that drives revenue but I don’t know what those are anymore.

Edit: but the stock keeps marching on and I haven’t sold…

I set my wife up with a new phone. Got the same case for it. Took her three weeks to figure out it was swapped because she tried to plug a lightning cable into it and thought she broke it.
If AT&T didn’t effectively give us new iPhones every 2.5 years with the trade in rebates matching prices of new iPhones, I wouldn’t upgrade anymore just replace batteries. Makes no sense not to upgrade when the trade in price equals a new phone.
 
I just upgraded to a 15 after 4 years, battery life was the big issue plus I was right on the cusp of where a trade-in of my old phone would have zero value if I waited much longer. But I do wonder what the growth driver is currently? My apple watch was okay 4 years ago (switched to a Garmin I love this go around.) my iPad is just a toy I mainly use when traveling. I’ve got a set of EarPods I haven’t upgraded in 4 years and see no need to upgrade them. I am sure Apple does other things that drives revenue but I don’t know what those are anymore.

Edit: but the stock keeps marching on and I haven’t sold…

I set my wife up with a new phone. Got the same case for it. Took her three weeks to figure out it was swapped because she tried to plug a lightning cable into it and thought she broke it.
If AT&T didn’t effectively give us new iPhones every 2.5 years with the trade in rebates matching prices of new iPhones, I wouldn’t upgrade anymore just replace batteries. Makes no sense not to upgrade when the trade in price equals a new phone.

That was my big motivation to finally trade in, waited until one of those “any phone, any condition” type trade-in sales. In the fine print it’s not “any phone” though, those trade-ins typically only go back the last 4 or 5 models at most to get the max value to cover most of the new cost.

Of course I had to change my plan which was more expensive but its mostly offset by a couple of free streaming services now included that I used to pay for.
 
I just upgraded to a 15 after 4 years, battery life was the big issue plus I was right on the cusp of where a trade-in of my old phone would have zero value if I waited much longer. But I do wonder what the growth driver is currently? My apple watch was okay 4 years ago (switched to a Garmin I love this go around.) my iPad is just a toy I mainly use when traveling. I’ve got a set of EarPods I haven’t upgraded in 4 years and see no need to upgrade them. I am sure Apple does other things that drives revenue but I don’t know what those are anymore.

Edit: but the stock keeps marching on and I haven’t sold…

I set my wife up with a new phone. Got the same case for it. Took her three weeks to figure out it was swapped because she tried to plug a lightning cable into it and thought she broke it.
If AT&T didn’t effectively give us new iPhones every 2.5 years with the trade in rebates matching prices of new iPhones, I wouldn’t upgrade anymore just replace batteries. Makes no sense not to upgrade when the trade in price equals a new phone.

That was my big motivation to finally trade in, waited until one of those “any phone, any condition” type trade-in sales. In the fine print it’s not “any phone” though, those trade-ins typically only go back the last 4 or 5 models at most to get the max value to cover most of the new cost.

Of course I had to change my plan which was more expensive but its mostly offset by a couple of free streaming services now included that I used to pay for.
Yeah...and the fine print says I'd have to up my plan from $30 a month to $55 a month.

So where is the best place to buy a new iphone outright. Mine won't charge on a cord any more and the battery isn't lasting longer than Sand on Valentine's Day.
 
Can't stand how synched Crypto has become with the US market. Might as well buy the S&P 500. The regulators have completely wrecked the purpose of it. There is zero reason it should have gone down with tariffs. It probably should have gone up
 
Can't stand how synched Crypto has become with the US market. Might as well buy the S&P 500. The regulators have completely wrecked the purpose of it. There is zero reason it should have gone down with tariffs. It probably should have gone up
"Non correlated asset"

suuuuuuuure.
 
Can't stand how synched Crypto has become with the US market. Might as well buy the S&P 500. The regulators have completely wrecked the purpose of it. There is zero reason it should have gone down with tariffs. It probably should have gone up

I don't think it really has to do with regulation. For the last 5 years there has basically been a risk-on trade and a risk-off trade. When people are comfortable with risk-on all of the more bloated tech companies and crypto and gamestop etc fly. When people get worried that risk-off is around the corner, all of that stuff sells off.
 
Can't stand how synched Crypto has become with the US market. Might as well buy the S&P 500. The regulators have completely wrecked the purpose of it. There is zero reason it should have gone down with tariffs. It probably should have gone up

Yeah it’s basically a leveraged Nasdaq etf
If that were true I'd buy a ton of it. I'd much rather (and do) have way, way more in QQQ than BTC.
 
Can't stand how synched Crypto has become with the US market. Might as well buy the S&P 500. The regulators have completely wrecked the purpose of it. There is zero reason it should have gone down with tariffs. It probably should have gone up

I don't think it really has to do with regulation. For the last 5 years there has basically been a risk-on trade and a risk-off trade. When people are comfortable with risk-on all of the more bloated tech companies and crypto and gamestop etc fly. When people get worried that risk-off is around the corner, all of that stuff sells off.

Perhaps not directly But the concept of it was independence from govt backed Fiat currencies. That de-link broke when govts started regulating it. Maybe for good reason like black market, illegal activities, etc. But really what they wanted was a cut of people's gains on it (I don't have to pay gains if I trade in some lira for a dollar and benefit from it over a few weeks in italy).

It's supposed to be an electronic currency, not a ticker symbol.

Whether it was the open market, govt involvement, or companies like MicroStrategy make it part of their portfolio (heck, it pretty much is all MSTR has to offer as a product anymore.) ... well, it no longer serves it's intended purpose. Guess I'm just annoyed that the concept I got into several years ago has gone kaput. Uncle Sam just isn't gonna let the world make money it doesn't get a piece of.
 
The markets shrugging off all Trump’s tariff statements is really surprising. He said he would do this for months and that he loved Tariffs. Honestly should have been priced in.
Then wouldn't it not be surprising that the marketing is shrugging it off, if its priced in.
I wouldn’t call this mornings price action shrugging it off. But maybe my post wasn’t clear. I am saying markets thinking this wasn’t coming and it was all negotiation.
It's still likely in negotiation.
What's he negotiating for? Who knows
With Canada there is confusion (at least for me) as to the ultimate goal. With Mexico it's going to be help with immigration and fentanyl. To tie that in with the markets that seems to be what the markets are thinking, as well. We're really not down that much. These tariffs are negotiating sticks. The one with Mexico is already suspended.
All the fentanyl pouring in from Canada. Apparently. Thankfully we're all safe now. Yay stocks!
 
It's hard to be unhappy with pocketing profits.

Until it isn't.
Sadly I missed out on this as well. I keep meaning to get back in. Made a tiny percentage back when it was in the 20’s or so.
Me too, but it’s now incredibly expensive. The P/S is 60ish for 2025. Not even this year but for next year’s revenue. They are doing well but a P/S of 83 for current revenue is beyond the nosebleed seats. Current PE is 400 and forward PE is 200. It reminds me of DOCU back at the end of 2021 but on steroids. If there is any type of slowdown, it could get hit extremely hard.
 
Not individual stock related, but anyone have any recommendations for mutual funds/ETFs that focus on a broad basket of commodities?

Just trying to do a bit of asset allocation away from traditional stocks/bonds.

TIA
 

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