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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)

MRNA (and other pharmaceuticals) taking a beating this morning on rumors / news that a new government appointee may downplay or eliminate the use of vaccines. Maybe a buying opportunity but for me, I'm holding. Also, because the price per share of MRNA plowed right through my stop/limit sell order which never triggered...
 
MRNA (and other pharmaceuticals) taking a beating this morning on rumors / news that a new government appointee may downplay or eliminate the use of vaccines. Maybe a buying opportunity but for me, I'm holding. Also, because the price per share of MRNA plowed right through my stop/limit sell order which never triggered...

It seems extremely likely they will, and I don't really think the pharma stocks are down nearly enough to reflect that yet.
 
Speaking of pharma, Vertex scored FDA nod for long-awaited non-opioid pain reliever Journavx. This stock hit a massive air pocket on Dec. 19 as reports came out that this drug's results weren't too dissimilar from the placebo, but it's recovered quite nicely since.
 
Speaking of air pockets, our plucky little tin miner has become something of a battleground, with volumes that make the 90-day average look silly. I am also at the point where I swore I would sell the most expensive third of my MP position, but once again, greed won't let me pull the trigger. Huh.
 
Speaking of pharma, Vertex scored FDA nod for long-awaited non-opioid pain reliever Journavx. This stock hit a massive air pocket on Dec. 19 as reports came out that this drug's results weren't too dissimilar from the placebo, but it's recovered quite nicely since.

Shoulda jumped on this when you first mentioned it..oy
 
Speaking of air pockets, our plucky little tin miner has become something of a battleground, with volumes that make the 90-day average look silly. I am also at the point where I swore I would sell the most expensive third of my MP position, but once again, greed won't let me pull the trigger. Huh.

Yeah, our tin stock got punished for being in the wrong place at the wrong time on a map. There has been NO disruption to operations and although they initially evacuated employees, they're back to business. A ceasefire with rebels has been made and the border to Uganda is open (despite reports to the contrary). I didn't buy any on the decline; I have more than enough. But I think this thing recovers and is still on track for a major purchase by year end or into next year. Dividends will continue to roll in, so while the pain was real, I'm hoping it was temporary.
 
Speaking of pharma, Vertex scored FDA nod for long-awaited non-opioid pain reliever Journavx. This stock hit a massive air pocket on Dec. 19 as reports came out that this drug's results weren't too dissimilar from the placebo, but it's recovered quite nicely since.

Shoulda jumped on this when you first mentioned it..oy

Eh, given my track record on other things (Cough cough playgon cough cough cobalt) you were wise to steer clear.
 
PLTR has now become my top holding leaving that dog Amazon in the rear view. Probably the main reason for doubling up on the market on my 401 in the last 12 months despite being 30% in cash.

Just talked myself into selling 20%. Have to start being more disciplined.
Sounds wise. Not that it is right for you, but whenever I have the chance to sell some number of shares that would cover my original cost basis, that's how much I sell (not considering the tax implication since mine is a Roth). Nothing like free-rolling shares or options. Congrats. I sold PLTR long ago, sadly.
 
For those who have traded or invested in Diageo (DEO), it is trading at $112 today, its lowest level since 2017 or thereabouts and down 50% from its all time high back when people still drank in 2021. Part of me wants to push in a lot of chips but a bigger part wants to just keep watching it slowly decline. I'll be on the sidelines today but figured there may be one or two buyers on this board.
 
Gold continues to rise, up to $2,871....

Silver $32.47

I've table an *** whooping in GOLD over the last. I chased this down for $25 in 2020-1. Gold has increased from $1600 to $2800 over that time frame. Sucks having the premise right but not the right vehicle to execute on that.

From CIO at Unlimited Funds (and former Bridgewater guy)
Global demand for gold is rising just as production is falling. That means incremental demand will have to be met with enough price rises to incentivize scrap. If the dynamics in the 00s are indication, that could force prices to rise multiples of current levels.

I 'm up to about a 7% allocation across my retirement accounts, after moving a bunch into it early last year. Goal was to build up to 10% at retirement, although I haven't added much lately just letting it run.
 
Gold continues to rise, up to $2,871....

Silver $32.47

I've table an *** whooping in GOLD over the last. I chased this down for $25 in 2020-1. Gold has increased from $1600 to $2800 over that time frame. Sucks having the premise right but not the right vehicle to execute on that.

From CIO at Unlimited Funds (and former Bridgewater guy)
Global demand for gold is rising just as production is falling. That means incremental demand will have to be met with enough price rises to incentivize scrap. If the dynamics in the 00s are indication, that could force prices to rise multiples of current levels.

I 'm up to about a 7% allocation across my retirement accounts, after moving a bunch into it early last year. Goal was to build up to 10% at retirement, although I haven't added much lately just letting it run.

How does one invest in Gold? I’m sure its been brought up before but lots of pages in this thread
 
Last edited:
Gold continues to rise, up to $2,871....

Silver $32.47

I've table an *** whooping in GOLD over the last. I chased this down for $25 in 2020-1. Gold has increased from $1600 to $2800 over that time frame. Sucks having the premise right but not the right vehicle to execute on that.

From CIO at Unlimited Funds (and former Bridgewater guy)
Global demand for gold is rising just as production is falling. That means incremental demand will have to be met with enough price rises to incentivize scrap. If the dynamics in the 00s are indication, that could force prices to rise multiples of current levels.

I 'm up to about a 7% allocation across my retirement accounts, after moving a bunch into it early last year. Goal was to build up to 10% at retirement, although I haven't added much lately just letting it run.

How does one invest in Gold? I’m sure its been brought ip before but lots of pages in this thread

GLD is the easiest way unless you want to go and buy bars/coins on your own but a big buy/sell price discrepancy doing it that way.
 
Last edited:
Gold continues to rise, up to $2,871....

Silver $32.47

I've table an *** whooping in GOLD over the last. I chased this down for $25 in 2020-1. Gold has increased from $1600 to $2800 over that time frame. Sucks having the premise right but not the right vehicle to execute on that.

From CIO at Unlimited Funds (and former Bridgewater guy)
Global demand for gold is rising just as production is falling. That means incremental demand will have to be met with enough price rises to incentivize scrap. If the dynamics in the 00s are indication, that could force prices to rise multiples of current levels.

I 'm up to about a 7% allocation across my retirement accounts, after moving a bunch into it early last year. Goal was to build up to 10% at retirement, although I haven't added much lately just letting it run.

How does one invest in Gold? I’m sure its been brought ip before but lots of pages in this thread

GLD is the easiest way unless you want to go and guy bars/coins on your own but a big buy/sell price discrepancy doing it that way.

Yeah, this is the way.

The gold miners are tricky; NEM is probably best in breed, but if you just want exposure to gold, the ETF is the way to go.
 
Gold continues to rise, up to $2,871....

Silver $32.47

I've table an *** whooping in GOLD over the last. I chased this down for $25 in 2020-1. Gold has increased from $1600 to $2800 over that time frame. Sucks having the premise right but not the right vehicle to execute on that.

From CIO at Unlimited Funds (and former Bridgewater guy)
Global demand for gold is rising just as production is falling. That means incremental demand will have to be met with enough price rises to incentivize scrap. If the dynamics in the 00s are indication, that could force prices to rise multiples of current levels.

I 'm up to about a 7% allocation across my retirement accounts, after moving a bunch into it early last year. Goal was to build up to 10% at retirement, although I haven't added much lately just letting it run.

How does one invest in Gold? I’m sure its been brought ip before but lots of pages in this thread

GLD is the easiest way unless you want to go and guy bars/coins on your own but a big buy/sell price discrepancy doing it that way.

Yeah, this is the way.

The gold miners are tricky; NEM is probably best in breed, but if you just want exposure to gold, the ETF is the way to go.

There's no need to buy physical gold. I don't listen to anybody that is trying to get people to do so. They're probably making big money on the spread or physical storage.

Like almost everything these days, just use an ETF. GLD is the biggest and most liquid. I use IAUM as it's only .09% expense ratio v 0.4% for GLD, and you're essentially getting the same thing. There is also a GLDM which has a 0.1% expense ratio.

I do have a small position in NEM in a Roth as well, but I don't count that as part of my "gold allocation".
 
For those who have traded or invested in Diageo (DEO), it is trading at $112 today, its lowest level since 2017 or thereabouts and down 50% from its all time high back when people still drank in 2021. Part of me wants to push in a lot of chips but a bigger part wants to just keep watching it slowly decline. I'll be on the sidelines today but figured there may be one or two buyers on this board.
I have a fair value price of $130-135 a share on DEO

Wide Moat stock.

The issue is it appears the covid revenue growth is over and has been since the 6/2023 quarter.

Do we really think long term people around the world are done drinking? Not me.

This is a highly defensive stock. And there is probably another 10% of downside and then long term I see this ascending back into 130-140 range.

This is a value stock in it’s truest form…..a great entry point here but understand 10 more percent can still rip off here.

If you are a patient investor this can be a 25-30% trade inside 24 months. I take those all day.

Average down here half of what you intended and wait and see if it drops more. Then hold and stay long and collect the yield which at this level is now at 3.71%

Boring stock but part of an overall diversified portfolio will come in handy in 2026 imo.

No instant gratification here.
 
To add on the Gold topic, trading it is one thing. I know nothing about that, but I'm sure there are some here that can weigh in.

I'm of the camp that it's an uncorrelated asset to hold for the long term as it can provide rebalancing opportunities, reduce overall portfolio drawdowns, and ultimately increase a retirement portfolio's safe withdrawal rate.
 
To add on the Gold topic, trading it is one thing. I know nothing about that, but I'm sure there are some here that can weigh in.

I'm of the camp that it's an uncorrelated asset to hold for the long term as it can provide rebalancing opportunities, reduce overall portfolio drawdowns, and ultimately increase a retirement portfolio's safe withdrawal rate.
I hold no more than 2-3% in gold ever.

When it’s a cheap suit I buy it…when it’s the price of an expensive suit I sell it.

I only have ever owned NEM. So best in class guys who dig for it.

I don’t care for the actual commodity.

I have heard the gold pitch my entire investment life. It has not been a great long term investment.
 
To add on the Gold topic, trading it is one thing. I know nothing about that, but I'm sure there are some here that can weigh in.

I'm of the camp that it's an uncorrelated asset to hold for the long term as it can provide rebalancing opportunities, reduce overall portfolio drawdowns, and ultimately increase a retirement portfolio's safe withdrawal rate.
I hold no more than 2-3% in gold ever.

When it’s a cheap suit I buy it…when it’s the price of an expensive suit I sell it.

I only have ever owned NEM. So best in class guys who dig for it.

I don’t care for the actual commodity.

I have heard the gold pitch my entire investment life. It has not been a great long term investment.

Gold has several things going against it...

1. Actually unique utility in real products.
2. It physically exists.
3. Your wife loves it.

You need to be invested in something that has outperformed gold by 40000% over the last 10 years that....

1. Only utility can be duplicated an infinite number of times.
2. Exists like your 1963 Topps #537 (Rose Rookie Card).
3. Your wife hasn't heard of it.
 
To add on the Gold topic, trading it is one thing. I know nothing about that, but I'm sure there are some here that can weigh in.

I'm of the camp that it's an uncorrelated asset to hold for the long term as it can provide rebalancing opportunities, reduce overall portfolio drawdowns, and ultimately increase a retirement portfolio's safe withdrawal rate.
I hold no more than 2-3% in gold ever.

When it’s a cheap suit I buy it…when it’s the price of an expensive suit I sell it.

I only have ever owned NEM. So best in class guys who dig for it.

I don’t care for the actual commodity.

I have heard the gold pitch my entire investment life. It has not been a great long term investment.

I started posting about gold on this website as far back as 2001 when I first started posting here. The late great Shining Path called me "Auric Goldfinger" because I hammered it so hard. Back then, it was under $300/Oz. Wish I had listened to myself more. $300/Oz to $2,800/Oz seems like a decent long term investment to me.

I see investment in Bitcoin similarly. It's a finite commodity that acts as a hedge to the dollar.

But I'm an idiot.
 
To add on the Gold topic, trading it is one thing. I know nothing about that, but I'm sure there are some here that can weigh in.

I'm of the camp that it's an uncorrelated asset to hold for the long term as it can provide rebalancing opportunities, reduce overall portfolio drawdowns, and ultimately increase a retirement portfolio's safe withdrawal rate.
I hold no more than 2-3% in gold ever.

When it’s a cheap suit I buy it…when it’s the price of an expensive suit I sell it.

I only have ever owned NEM. So best in class guys who dig for it.

I don’t care for the actual commodity.

I have heard the gold pitch my entire investment life. It has not been a great long term investment.

Gold has several things going against it...

1. Actually unique utility in real products.
2. It physically exists.
3. Your wife loves it.

You need to be invested in something that has outperformed gold by 40000% over the last 10 years that....

1. Only utility can be duplicated an infinite number of times.
2. Exists like your 1963 Topps #537 (Rose Rookie Card).
3. Your wife hasn't heard of it.

This guy Cryptos!
 
To add on the Gold topic, trading it is one thing. I know nothing about that, but I'm sure there are some here that can weigh in.

I'm of the camp that it's an uncorrelated asset to hold for the long term as it can provide rebalancing opportunities, reduce overall portfolio drawdowns, and ultimately increase a retirement portfolio's safe withdrawal rate.
I hold no more than 2-3% in gold ever.

When it’s a cheap suit I buy it…when it’s the price of an expensive suit I sell it.

I only have ever owned NEM. So best in class guys who dig for it.

I don’t care for the actual commodity.

I have heard the gold pitch my entire investment life. It has not been a great long term investment.

I started posting about gold on this website as far back as 2001 when I first started posting here. The late great Shining Path called me "Auric Goldfinger" because I hammered it so hard. Back then, it was under $300/Oz. Wish I had listened to myself more. $300/Oz to $2,800/Oz seems like a decent long term investment to me.

I see investment in Bitcoin similarly. It's a finite commodity that acts as a hedge to the dollar.

But I'm an idiot.

Look, I get the arguments against gold. It doesn't do anything! It has no cash flow and pays no dividends! It's relying on someone willing to pay you more for it in the future than you buy it for!

Also Gold - has outperformed the S&P this century.

But the challenge with gold is that it while it has really long periods where it outperforms equities, it also has really long periods where it underperforms. Even if you start after the Hunt-bros related spike in '79-80 and use the peak in October of 1980 - it took about 44 years to get back there (inflation adjusted) this past October (it briefly touched the high in 2011 as well). That's because it was a mess for the 2+ decades through most of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s.

So to @Todem's point, if you zoom all the way out to look at 1978 through today, it's been terrible! It would be hard to have done worse.

But that's not the right way to look at it, imho. Nobody is holding 100% gold (well, nobody should). The discussion should be whether it has a place in a long-term portfolio. And a lot of people a whole lot smarter than me sure seem to think so. This article on the efficient frontier sums it up well:

Two things can be true at the same time:
  1. An asset is a critical component in many of the most desirable portfolios.
  2. The same asset is disastrously undesirable when studied only in isolation.

Most of the "best portfolios" in this analysis contain some gold.

So for me, from what I've gleaned, it has a place in a drawdown portfolio (which I'm in the process of transitioning to) with a goal of maximizing the ability to spend by providing the best balance of risk and return.
 
Really expected a Peter Schiff link in there somewhere.
Had to Google who that was.

I’m no gold bug. I find the narratives somewhat interesting but ultimately inconsequential to the long term thesis that a little bit of it has a place in optimizing a long term portfolio.

Probably a topic more suited for the Personal Finance or Retirement threads than here in the stock pickers thread.
 
Really expected a Peter Schiff link in there somewhere.

Or Danielle dimartino Booth
Anyone else add some GOOGL with this drop or staying away?

I filled at 190. I’ll add Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft on any big pullbacks. No interest in Tesla or Apple. Nvidia is a trade on pullbacks because I have a large position in a semi etf that is like 20% Nvidia already.
 
To add on the Gold topic, trading it is one thing. I know nothing about that, but I'm sure there are some here that can weigh in.

I'm of the camp that it's an uncorrelated asset to hold for the long term as it can provide rebalancing opportunities, reduce overall portfolio drawdowns, and ultimately increase a retirement portfolio's safe withdrawal rate.
I hold no more than 2-3% in gold ever.

When it’s a cheap suit I buy it…when it’s the price of an expensive suit I sell it.

I only have ever owned NEM. So best in class guys who dig for it.

I don’t care for the actual commodity.

I have heard the gold pitch my entire investment life. It has not been a great long term investment.

I started posting about gold on this website as far back as 2001 when I first started posting here. The late great Shining Path called me "Auric Goldfinger" because I hammered it so hard. Back then, it was under $300/Oz. Wish I had listened to myself more. $300/Oz to $2,800/Oz seems like a decent long term investment to me.

I see investment in Bitcoin similarly. It's a finite commodity that acts as a hedge to the dollar.

But I'm an idiot.

Look, I get the arguments against gold. It doesn't do anything! It has no cash flow and pays no dividends! It's relying on someone willing to pay you more for it in the future than you buy it for!

Also Gold - has outperformed the S&P this century.

But the challenge with gold is that it while it has really long periods where it outperforms equities, it also has really long periods where it underperforms. Even if you start after the Hunt-bros related spike in '79-80 and use the peak in October of 1980 - it took about 44 years to get back there (inflation adjusted) this past October (it briefly touched the high in 2011 as well). That's because it was a mess for the 2+ decades through most of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s.

So to @Todem's point, if you zoom all the way out to look at 1978 through today, it's been terrible! It would be hard to have done worse.

But that's not the right way to look at it, imho. Nobody is holding 100% gold (well, nobody should). The discussion should be whether it has a place in a long-term portfolio. And a lot of people a whole lot smarter than me sure seem to think so. This article on the efficient frontier sums it up well:

Two things can be true at the same time:
  1. An asset is a critical component in many of the most desirable portfolios.
  2. The same asset is disastrously undesirable when studied only in isolation.

Most of the "best portfolios" in this analysis contain some gold.

So for me, from what I've gleaned, it has a place in a drawdown portfolio (which I'm in the process of transitioning to) with a goal of maximizing the ability to spend by providing the best balance of risk and return.
Like I said 2-3% max allocation.
 
Bought a half position of 250 shares of HIMS at the everyday low price of 39.95. I've been watching this for a while, have watched it go up 75%, I finally bought in, due to today's 5% pullback. I think this still has legs. Digital health should be big - folks (especially the youngings) don't want to go see a doctor in person, get a script filled at drug store, etc. They have all your ED and weight loss drugs you will need. They just paid $14MM for a 1 minute Super Bowl ad. I will buy my other 250 at 35 if it hits or 45-50 if it keeps running.
 
Any updated thoughts on Palantir technologies (PLTR)? Up 43% TD, is it overvalued? On it's way up still? Good or bad buy at current prices?
Valuation is in outer space it's so out of whack with what's typical. Whether it's still a buy - :shrug:.
It’s like the poster child for overvalued. Great company doing well but 400 P/E and 60ish P/S is crazy. That said when Costco has a 61 P/E and Apple/Walmart are around 40 P/E with single digit growth rates, who knows anymore. It’s either the new orange or we are going to have an epic pull back where even the “safe” stocks are way overvalued. I could be wrong but I don’t feel warm and fuzzy.

Looking back on 5 year charts and there have been some cheap pockets like META getting crushed but then it’s up 700% from the bottom and revenue wise it’s only up about 40% from 2021 to now. I think META is probably more fairly valued because it went down so much but there’s a ton of examples where the growth of companies revenue and earnings is way below the stock price gain. It’s an interesting time and I’m not so far away from retiring that I’m not willing to go through a 2001 or 2008 so I’m watching extremely carefully.
 
Any updated thoughts on Palantir technologies (PLTR)? Up 43% TD, is it overvalued? On it's way up still? Good or bad buy at current prices?

Sold 20% of what I owned after it jumped 20+% overnight.

Feel a little dumbish now....
I've felt dumb all 3 times I've trimmed $APP and will feel dumb after I do it a 4th time before earnings, too. But I don't want to lose out on gains like I did for a few things after 2021.
 
Any updated thoughts on Palantir technologies (PLTR)? Up 43% TD, is it overvalued? On it's way up still? Good or bad buy at current prices?

I sold the last of mine after the earnings pop. Could be a mistake but we've seen before these super extended names can have utterly massive corrections and I don't feel the risk/reward is worth it anymore.

So long story short, it'll probably be $300+ by this time next year.
 
Any updated thoughts on Palantir technologies (PLTR)? Up 43% TD, is it overvalued? On it's way up still? Good or bad buy at current prices?

Sold 20% of what I owned after it jumped 20+% overnight.

Feel a little dumbish now....
I've felt dumb all 3 times I've trimmed $APP and will feel dumb after I do it a 4th time before earnings, too. But I don't want to lose out on gains like I did for a few things after 2021.
This exactly. Had 800 shares of PLTR at a very low basis. Down to 450 shares with three sales along the way, all at a much lower price than it is now. But used those proceeds, after taxes, to diversify my portfolio more. That's always a smart move.
 
What are we thinking about Amazon? Surprised it’s not down more after hours to be honest. EPS destroyed but revenue was about inline. Forward revenue growth guidance of 5-9%. How long can these companies grow revenue at 10% but cut costs enough to keep beating on the bottom line?
 

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