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Stock Thread (28 Viewers)

Bob Sacamano said:
There will be roosting.  
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My biggest worry is as a ETF investor the roosting hurts more.  Getting liquid in a big down market in major ETFs when trying to unwind 6 figure positions can chew your ### up.

The roosting in my mind is early 2019 when the buybacks dry up.  I'm planning on starting some serious profit taking in retirement accounts with the hopes to minimize cap gains hits in personal accounts.  

Already shifting my retirement to dividend heavy etfs.  Backing my kids college stuff off as well.  

 
culdeus said:
For one, the road doesn't go on forever, secondly there is uncertainty in how the cuts will extend with a split congress. 
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But the buybacks aren't new.  Companies aren't running out of cash from operations.  That's how they've decided to best use it for years.  Might not be at 2018 levels, which will definitely be historic.  But if they match 2015 or 2016, that's still relatively historic.

 
But if you look at the first chart on page 10, it still looks like Operating Earnings have been, on the whole, exceeding buybacks+dividends.

 
Thoughts on marijuana stocks......too late to the game or potential to get in long term and do well? What’s the play? 

 
pecorino said:
Sold AAPL covered calls for September. Already hit the strike price. I’m not going to lose money but it caps my profits. I’ve fallen in and out of love with covered calls very quickly. Really dinged my gains on several occasions. Kind of hope AAPL drops to make me feel better.
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Can you make some more money by rolling those calls out (i.e. buy the calls back and sell the same call further out in time.)? What would this do to your potential profit and break even?

 
anyone else going long on CVSI / HEAR?

HEAR might pullback to the $15 range, but I think this is an awesome stock longterm. Might be this era's MNST

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
it's my biggest holding by far. just wish I had a lot more.

Edit: Just went back to check and looks like I bought some originally at $268 on 4/23/2013.

Now it's around $2012. So, only like 650% growth in a bit more than 5 years. :excited:
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Still moving and hopefully keeps trucking along. 

 
GoBirds said:
Who bought a couple more shares of Amazon this morning........... :coffee: this guy. 
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That was my signal to sell wasn't it.

I'm not too good at taking subtle hints.

-----

Meanwhile ... pretty decent sale on tech stocks today. Anyone want to speculate as to why? (sorry if there's been news ... I don't follow)

TSLA is dropping like a lead balloon ... not that I want anything to do with that company.

GOOGL is looking like a decent buy today. No real bargains yet but I'm watching.

I'll wait and see how low this will go. Don't want to "catch the falling knife" so they say.

 
Bossman said:
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Meanwhile ... pretty decent sale on tech stocks today. Anyone want to speculate as to why? (sorry if there's been news ... I don't follow)
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Bunch of old white people that probably have little to no knowledge about technology that is grilling FB & TWTR while mad as all hell the GOOGL was a no-show.  

"How come every time I put 1+1 into the Google machine it always comes back 2?  That doesn't seem fair to all the other numbers."

 
Mystery Achiever said:
Also helped by a non white not-so-old senator (and maybe others; didn't watch much), welcoming the empty chair sitting there representing GOOGL
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lol   As a now older white guy I feel comfortable stating these guys are clueless.  I used to be setting up VCR's , stereo systems and such and now everything I need done I ask Cal (14) to do it because it confuses and enrages me. :kicksrock:

 
Oh, I was just piling on criticizing the group driving down our GOOGL price. Harris wasn't being clueless, just grandstanding/thheatrical  imo calling attention to their absence (Sorry for the political commentary, but it really is political commentary driving down FB, TWTR and GOOGL today.)

 
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Mystery Achiever said:
Oh, I was just piling on criticizing the group driving down our GOOGL price. Harris wasn't being clueless, just grandstanding/thheatrical  imo calling attention to their absence (Sorry for the political commentary, but it really is political commentary driving down FB, TWTR and GOOGL today.)
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Yeah, bunch of dickmittens.

 
Sand said:
Nike - oof.

Mixing business and social justice evidently isn't looked on kindly by shareholders.
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I'm up in the air on this one, spent some time giving it some thought over the last day or so.

I don't think the verdict will be returned for at least 6 months, so too much risk to really buy/short if no position already in place. It is kinda a social activismy play on their part, and I don't know how that will turn out - I'd think from a marketing standpoint you would want to address your core audience (and those adjacent to that audience) which they're kinda doing, but also, they are alienating another part of the population who def won't be buying. 

If I was going to take a guess, it would be this:

Some super liberal folks who might not have necessarily bought, will go out and buy. Other conservative individuals who might've bought will buy a different brand. The core audience will be unchanged in any habits. I feel the net is going to end up being a scratch, and with the stock on a tear this year, some large money viewed this an opportunity to take profits. 

 
2/3s of customers are under 34 yrs old. 45% are under 25 yrs old. Now that may include some kids whose buying decisions are under control of older parents, but i don't expect this will hurt them. If I were a long-term holder, I might be adding here, though it wasn't that much of a drop. Currently same price as August 17.

 
In 2012, JPM announced that a trader went rogue and would eventually lose more than $6 billion for the company. The stock dropped about 10% and didn't even take 6 months to recover.

Nike will be just fine with an ad campaign centered around a semi-controversial figure.

 
I think we're all discussing different things here. 

Anyone who thinks Nike will get absolutely slaughtered is fooling themselves. With that being said, the 1 year on the thing is up 60% and P/E is almost 35 (they're a footwear/apparel retailer... their valuations are way out of whack, like a lot of other things out there), I think the real buying opportunity isn't right now after a 2% dip. 

 
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culdeus said:
I mean it would be awesome if someone tell me how to hedge.
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Not an expert... Consider selling two-month, 25-Delta Calls against your current holdings. Take that money and buy some 25-Delta Calls in something like SH (short S&P ETF). Stay away from the leveraged etfs. There may be a more efficient way but, right now, it's cheaper to do this than to buy equivalent amounts of, say, IWM Puts.

You'll be limiting your gains by selling the calls but you'll have a "hedge" going. I'm not smart enough to know how this would perform in a 20% down move... maybe cut your losses in half if I had to guess. Plus it's almost free for you to do this. A 100% hedge would probably cost more than what it's worth....insurance isn't cheap and usually comes at a net debit.

Example: A 25-Delta Call in AAPL ($227) for Nov. 16 expiry trades at $3.80 with a strike of $245. You'd cease further gains in AAPL should it close above $245 on 11/16 but pocket the $3.80 plus gains to $245. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/04/jpmorgan-says-next-crisis-will-feature-flash-crashes-and-social-unrest.html

This is one of my favorite follows, him and Gundlach - Kolanovic says we're safe until the first half of 2019... To me, that means the clock is ticking, he'll be hedged before he says it is coming. 
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The developing trade dispute with China could accelerate or delay the end of the cycle as well, he said.
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There's a guy who knows what he's talking about.

He was a bit more measured in his interview. If central banks can head off the worst of a crisis by providing a floor for asset prices, then the status quo will probably be maintained, he said. 
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So if what he's thinks will happen then nothing will really happen.

 
BassNBrew said:
There's a guy who knows what he's talking about.

So if what he's thinks will happen then nothing will really happen.
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The article was a bit melodramatic. Trying to compare possible social unrest to 1968 and the Vietnam War because of algorithmic stock buying/selling. 

 
Glorious day to be in the market for tech stocks.

Just waiting for them to hit bottom and I'm in for some more googl / amzn

I've had a good amount of cash burning a hole in my pocket for some time.

Might need to wait and see if tomorrow brings more of the same though. How low can it go?

.... and I wish I owned some tvix today. 

 
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BABA is getting pretty interesting to me... Still a lot of pressure with the Chinese economy, trade wars, etc, but for a very LT view, might take my first position on them pretty soon (maybe like 1/4 position).

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
BABA is getting pretty interesting to me... Still a lot of pressure with the Chinese economy, trade wars, etc, but for a very LT view, might take my first position on them pretty soon (maybe like 1/4 position).
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Me too. I’ve got a sizable retirement account and taxable account sitting in cash right now. I’m looking long term, not a daily trader. I want to find some 5 year type growth stocks to maybe help me retire a little earlier. I’m still around 15 years away but Amazon’s been helping and I don’t mind a little froth off the top right now. I got out at almost the exact same spot as we are now (S&P up a percent, NASDAQ down a percent) and made some nice interest.

 
Capella said:
Yea think I’m going to be in on some more Amazon here today or tomorrow. 
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Not sure I could stomach any more. I want it to fly the next few years but that’s too much in one basket. I need to diversify a little. Remember that car I bought a while ago, it just got repossessed the past two days! ;)

Of course I'm ignoring the $500 or so a share jump in the middle but who’s counting?

It was fun to read that article about beating Apple to $2 trillion market cap. If that happens, I’ll meet you at Charley’s or Bern’s steakhouse and treat you!

 
stbugs said:
Not sure I could stomach any more. I want it to fly the next few years but that’s too much in one basket. I need to diversify a little. Remember that car I bought a while ago, it just got repossessed the past two days! ;)

Of course I'm ignoring the $500 or so a share jump in the middle but who’s counting?

It was fun to read that article about beating Apple to $2 trillion market cap. If that happens, I’ll meet you at Charley’s or Bern’s steakhouse and treat you!
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:hifive:  sounds great 

 
Mystery Achiever said:
2/3s of customers are under 34 yrs old. 45% are under 25 yrs old. Now that may include some kids whose buying decisions are under control of older parents, but i don't expect this will hurt them. If I were a long-term holder, I might be adding here, though it wasn't that much of a drop. Currently same price as August 17.
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I thought Millenials weren't supposed to have any money?

 
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