Dude is definitely crazy. Brilliant with all the ideas but clearly not the level headed guy you want running the company. There have been brilliant guys starting other companies as well that have transitioned to great CEOs but he sure isn’t like that.
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Stock Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
kevzilla
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It was semi-joking.
But yes, I think the company is worth zero dollars, they're a finely tuned cash burning machine. The numbers don't add up, I've said it for years, feels like the bulls might actually be waking up to reality.
I need to go check if they owe anything before the end of 2018, but in the early part of 2019, they owe a little under $1B. Elon Musk sure as #### isn't making it easier for them to raise more capital, and certainly not at friendly rates. The breakdown on the base $35k Model 3 doesn't even appear to be profitable for them (UBS tore the Model 3 down to studs and ran an analysis on it), they need to sell a bunch more of these higher end Model 3's, X's, S's, and by a ton of different accounts/research, the demand is waning. The structure of building cars in tents and basically everything else imaginable, it appears from a logistics standpoint, the company is a ####### nightmare. Furthermore, their new CFA resigned today after a whopping one month at the company... You'd have to imagine a senior executive in charge of the books like that got a look at the numbers, puked, and packed up his belongings, that is pretty telling to me.
Now, I don't think they'll ever truly go bankrupt - I expect them to be nearing bankruptcy and someone like an Apple, GOOG, etc. to step in and buy the brand for pennies on the dollar, but that will be the only thing that keeps the name around.
** Worth noting, I've been a bear on this company forever, so take it FWIW. I have been smart enough to avoid shorting, although as of right now, I'm a little angry with myself for that. At a ceiling, I think the brand name itself is worth $10B, honestly though, $5B would be much more fair. At $10B, they're worth about 75% less than now, so $65 a share just before bankruptcy.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I will add this much, as I am always looking for an angle to make a quick & easy profit:
If (and a huge if) Tesla is able to lure a top executive away from a place like GM, BMW, Daimler, Toyota, etc. (and they would have to offer this person such an insanely lucrative package to do so) to be their COO and number 2 before the sky is falling and it has become apparent, that will give the stock a huge boost and you can jump in to catch that move, even after the initial pop.
If (and a huge if) Tesla is able to lure a top executive away from a place like GM, BMW, Daimler, Toyota, etc. (and they would have to offer this person such an insanely lucrative package to do so) to be their COO and number 2 before the sky is falling and it has become apparent, that will give the stock a huge boost and you can jump in to catch that move, even after the initial pop.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-a-35-000-tesla-model-3-envisioned-by-musk-profitable-ubs-says-no-1534436452Saw three trailers full of Model 3s parked today early morning at a mall parking lot.
They looked good to me
The threat I don't think is profitability, but the sheer number of competitors coming out.
They tore the thing apart, IDK...
Anyways, literally hours after I posted the above, they did this https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/tesla-says-jerome-guillen-has-been-promoted-to-president-of-automotive.html
That was the wrong move, they needed a big hire from like Daimler, Toyota or something like that to bring back confidence, an internal promotion for another Musk puppet won't change anything.
culdeus
Footballguy
Ehhhh, I guess. Toyota isn't really on the leading edge of EV. Their HEV are a few generations behind, but they market them well and they work.
I'm not sure an executive hire is what the need really. They seem to have ODM type issues in scaling. Someone out of Bosch would fit that better.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm not talking about to enhance the product, I'm saying for everything else beyond that. They need an exec for logistics, talking to the markets, efficiency, full understanding of everything beyond just making a nice car - a seasoned executive in the industry, plain and simple.
sbonomo
Footballguy
So I have 10 contract of puts at 290 and 10 at 270. Of course i sold the 290’s at a small profit 2-days ago and made a killing on the 270’s this am. Still screwed myself out of 18k. I won’t cry over spilled milk making a good return overal on the trade. I plan to replace the 270’s if there is any run up past the strike price and replace the 290’s with 250. I have a sneaky feeling earnings are going to be disappointing which unfortunately now may already be accounted for.
sbonomo
Footballguy
VW and Mercedes are going to catch them at some point with much deeper pockets and better track records.
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skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Cbllf. What a kick in the nuts. Congrats to those who had the brains to get out with a small loss. 
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Gave this some thought over the weekend, I think the Fed is behind the curve... Even though the data for inflation are lagging indicators, I'm betting by 1Q or 2Q 2019, it'll start showing up in the data. Market clearly thinks these wage gains for the last NFP were an anomaly, I'm not as sold on that - how long can you realistically be at full employment before wage gains start getting more aggressive? Regardless, by 1H 2019, the FFR will still only be at somewhere around 2.25-2.75%. If we actually have $400B or more of tariffs going by this time, that'll just add juice to the inflation, the Fed will have little recourse but to aggressively hike rates, and thus, the end of the bull market.
I don't see more than another 18 months left at the party until it ends. S&P price/earnings is currently at a bloated 25, I'd think that contracts to around 16/17 whenever this hits, so losses around 30-35%.
I don't see more than another 18 months left at the party until it ends. S&P price/earnings is currently at a bloated 25, I'd think that contracts to around 16/17 whenever this hits, so losses around 30-35%.
Been thinking a lot about trading deep in the money debit call spreads very close to the date of expiration. I'm currently looking at Alibaba and a spread which expires 9/21, strike prices of $145 and $146. There is a big gap in the bid/ask prices, but I placed a limit order to buy the spread contracts at $0.60. It may not hit, which is fine. But if it does and if BABA stays above $146 by the end of next week (a decent bet considering it is at $157 right now after already a steep drop) then the options will expire and I'd net $1 on each. So for ten contracts costing $600, I'd stand to sell them for $1000 in just over one week, minus commissions.
First, anyone have experience in buying these kinds of spreads near expiration and letting them run to expire? And if so, how does one close out the position? I don't have the cash to cover buying a thousand shares but since I've sold the calls at 146, I shouldn't have to. I'd rather dump the spread on the last day before expiry but just worried about being assigned early. I'll call my online company, I suppose, to learn more but curious to hear what you all think. Maybe we need a separate thread just for options trading?
First, anyone have experience in buying these kinds of spreads near expiration and letting them run to expire? And if so, how does one close out the position? I don't have the cash to cover buying a thousand shares but since I've sold the calls at 146, I shouldn't have to. I'd rather dump the spread on the last day before expiry but just worried about being assigned early. I'll call my online company, I suppose, to learn more but curious to hear what you all think. Maybe we need a separate thread just for options trading?
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
Statistically it's a good trade (83% POP). However, it may be cost-restrictive. Looks to me like this spread is a $.80-$.85 debit. How much do you pay in commissions per spread? The way you close this 1) get assigned on both options and pay the "assignment fees" and collect your $1/spread. 2) You can sell the 145 and buy the 146 back on expiration day but that may cost up to $.10 plus commissions.pecorino said:
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
pecorino said:
Instead, consider selling the $146, 9/21 Put for $1 and buy the $141 Put at $.50 so your risk is not unlimited (just $500). Yes, you are risking more, but, you profit on close ANYWHERE above $146 (10% possible profit in 10 days). If you are correct on BABA closing above $146 you do nothing and absorb no more commissions/fees...the spread expires worthless.
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Sand
Footballguy
Couple interesting items:
Pretty cool dashboard look at the current market and how mature it is.
Also, very interesting article on Robinhood. When something is free you always wonder who the customer is. Never thought it was HFTs - if that's true and RH is letting front running occur that's a huge breach of trust.
Pretty cool dashboard look at the current market and how mature it is.
Also, very interesting article on Robinhood. When something is free you always wonder who the customer is. Never thought it was HFTs - if that's true and RH is letting front running occur that's a huge breach of trust.
Thanks for your thoughts and good suggestion. Makes a lot of sense and I had considered playing the Put side for exactly the reasons you mentioned. It’s less intuitive but in the long run, probably the better side of the coin to play to minimize the fees.
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
Thanks for posting your ideas...really helps to walk through these scenarios at my stage (only started selling naked options in the last few months).
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
@Sand can you unpack this for us? I wish the article explained precisely what HFTs are doing with this order flow other than simply stating, "they can exploit the retail customers for far more than they pay Robinhood". Perhaps I missed it in the article.
Sand
Footballguy
General announcement - happy day. UIGEA hit 12 years ago and I pulled my monies out from poker sites, Neteller, etc. Threw it all into the market. Today it just hit six figures while being fairly conservatively invested.
I figured you degenerategamblers investors would have an appreciation for this.
I figured you degenerate
Sand
Footballguy
The implication is that HFT outfits are able to scalp money off the top of these trades and make money, despite paying Robinhood a lot to route trades for them.
I just thought it was interesting. Might be
, but worth a look.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Never thought about this, very interesting.The implication is that HFT outfits are able to scalp money off the top of these trades and make money, despite paying Robinhood a lot to route trades for them.
I just thought it was interesting. Might be
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Two biotechs I have taken short term positions in.
PRTK- Two approvals set for 1st week of October and one for mid october. Hope is to be out October 1stish with $1.50/share gain. Currently at $9.44
TCON- Phase II study results due in January. Currently at 2.25. Stock took a big haircut recently because those phase II results were delayed due to enrolling 80 extra patients. Not sure if that is good or bad for end result of study, but what it tells me is that the stock has $3.00 potential easily once the results are anticipated.
PRTK- Two approvals set for 1st week of October and one for mid october. Hope is to be out October 1stish with $1.50/share gain. Currently at $9.44
TCON- Phase II study results due in January. Currently at 2.25. Stock took a big haircut recently because those phase II results were delayed due to enrolling 80 extra patients. Not sure if that is good or bad for end result of study, but what it tells me is that the stock has $3.00 potential easily once the results are anticipated.
kevzilla
Footballguy
I'm going to tell you what I tell my dad: the "correct" cash position is the one that lets you sleep at night. He's 82, so his amount is almost 50% of his total accounts, taxable and non-taxable. But his non-taxable account is so fully invested that he sold his positions in CVX, XLF and VXUS this week to free up cash for his mandatory distribution in December. On the taxable side, he is largely cash, though he has been looking at CDs and Treasuries lately.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I think everyone would be smart to buy some downside protection. Our market has become so disconnected from reality, this volatility is the behavior of late cycle, and inflation is coming.
Having these tariffs only at 10% isn’t a good thing, regardless of what you might read. DJT is not backing off this (I think he ups the pressure after the midterms, tbh). If he isn’t backing down now, what happens when he basically has 2 whole years until a meaningful election?
The fact that the market isn’t down right now is a perfect example of the disconnect from reality, there is no positive spin on this being good for consumers, corporations, or the market, none. China isn’t backing down either, this trade war looks to be very real.
With unemployment being this low for this long, wage gains are coming. Add up tariffs, energy up 50%, & the Fed still at historically low rates - crippling inflation will show up by next year. Also think we’ll see the yield curve invert by the end of this year.
Even if we settle all of our trade disputes, I think it is almost inevitable, would prob just push my view back to the middle of 2020. We’ve got time, but I think caution should be exercised and how you position to be a little more defensive is something to be looked at over the next few weeks, I will be doing so.
Having these tariffs only at 10% isn’t a good thing, regardless of what you might read. DJT is not backing off this (I think he ups the pressure after the midterms, tbh). If he isn’t backing down now, what happens when he basically has 2 whole years until a meaningful election?
The fact that the market isn’t down right now is a perfect example of the disconnect from reality, there is no positive spin on this being good for consumers, corporations, or the market, none. China isn’t backing down either, this trade war looks to be very real.
With unemployment being this low for this long, wage gains are coming. Add up tariffs, energy up 50%, & the Fed still at historically low rates - crippling inflation will show up by next year. Also think we’ll see the yield curve invert by the end of this year.
Even if we settle all of our trade disputes, I think it is almost inevitable, would prob just push my view back to the middle of 2020. We’ve got time, but I think caution should be exercised and how you position to be a little more defensive is something to be looked at over the next few weeks, I will be doing so.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Ooops, TSLA.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm def getting a little rebalancing into the mix on day like today.
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Is that you Lhucks?fantasycurse42 said:
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
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Bossman
Footballguy
wasn't it at like $90 a week ago? Coulda sold at $280 today and made 300% in a week.
Sheesh.
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
Use bitcoin to buy pot stock for maximum profits!!1!!wasn't it at like $90 a week ago? Coulda sold at $280 today and made 300% in a week.
Sheesh.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Great day, you're happy, I'm happy.
This is very concerning though:
More Americans are defaulting on their credit cards: analyst
You shouldn't use your house to help pay your monthly bills, but nearly 1 in 6 American homeowners thinks that's just fine
This is very concerning though:
More Americans are defaulting on their credit cards: analyst
You shouldn't use your house to help pay your monthly bills, but nearly 1 in 6 American homeowners thinks that's just fine
Bossman
Footballguy
Not reading the articles but my guess is folks have been using home equity for decades.
Mortgage companies are BEGGING people to take out home equity loans. So many do.
Reverse mortgage. Company buys your house slowly while you still live there so you have a steady income.
Here's my theory;
People today have bills that we didn't have when I was a kid....
$900 cell phones for mom, dad, and for the 13, 10, and 7 year old kids, ... and monthly service plan that comes with them, is considered a necessity today and not the luxury that it actually is. Gotta have access to the internet 24/7 ya know.
Internet & Cable television with 800 channels, pay extra movie channels, Netflix, and Amazon Prime Video.
$200-$300 a month depending on the package. That's a good chunk of your mortgage right there. ... all luxuries that people can't live without.
So rather than living with a flip phone and digital tv antenna ... folks gonna live large and worry about consequences later.
So they keep buying those lotto tickets and praying.
Now get off my lawn.
Capella
Footballguy
I dunno man, people have been saying this for like 5 years now. Me, myself — I’m just gonna keep making this money.
Bossman
Footballguy
on the flip side ...
the darn economy is so strong ... unemployment is almost non-existent.
Companies are begging for warm bodies and there just aren't any to hire.
So they get aggressive with wages and benefits to lure folks that are employed elsewhere.
Those folks take the bait, make MORE money, the previous company is now scrambling to hire, and round and round we go.
All these people working, making more money than ever, ... enough money that the smart ones will invest for retirement.
Can't put in a bank ... they don't pay #### for interest. So they put it in the only other place it can grow ... the stock market. Stock market is booming.
Hard working folks, more now than ever before, making more money than ever before, stuffing boat loads of money into the stock market.
Stock prices go up, they keep buying anyway. AMZN is up to $1600 a share? Ef it, give me 20 more shares. What else am I gonna do with this cash?
I don't see these times changing until the next democrat gets into office ... so maybe 6 years from now.
the darn economy is so strong ... unemployment is almost non-existent.
Companies are begging for warm bodies and there just aren't any to hire.
So they get aggressive with wages and benefits to lure folks that are employed elsewhere.
Those folks take the bait, make MORE money, the previous company is now scrambling to hire, and round and round we go.
All these people working, making more money than ever, ... enough money that the smart ones will invest for retirement.
Can't put in a bank ... they don't pay #### for interest. So they put it in the only other place it can grow ... the stock market. Stock market is booming.
Hard working folks, more now than ever before, making more money than ever before, stuffing boat loads of money into the stock market.
Stock prices go up, they keep buying anyway. AMZN is up to $1600 a share? Ef it, give me 20 more shares. What else am I gonna do with this cash?
I don't see these times changing until the next democrat gets into office ... so maybe 6 years from now.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
lol
I can't argue with any of these things and this isn't the article I read a few days ago but close to it. The point was in the past people took out a HELOC to say remodel the kitchen, now they are doing so to pay the electric bill.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I've really let you guys and myself down. Herman Miller reported today and Steelcase a few minutes ago. Both crushed earnings and their stocks spiked nicely. This is one of the few things I know about but didn't even realize they were reporting this week. We are so damn busy with furniture and I have friends that rep for both of those places and they are killing it too.
Oh well, I DON'T LIKE MONEY!!!!11!!!!!
Oh well, I DON'T LIKE MONEY!!!!11!!!!!
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Anyone else watching Powell's conference? Sharp guy, like how he comes across.
Bossman
Footballguy
... aaannnnd we're back.I'm poo-pooing the market is crashing talk.
picked up 10 more shares of amzn @ 1912 today
One thing is for sure ... one of us in here will be right about the market, ... and the other one will be holding a bunch of amzn stock.
amzn currently $2011
Tempted to sell for a quick $1000 profit and reload on the next dip.
