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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

Oil prices skyrocketing back up in the past week or more can’t be good for the already battered cruise lines and airlines.   They can’t seem to catch a break.  

 
Posted to the comments section under Adam Feuerstein's "article" he posted yesterday:

Huff Barlington

MAY 5, 2020 AT 10:28 AM

No effort to investigate the reason for the sale. Irresponsible, misleading and deceitful. Although Nader’s intentions were noble, he didn’t disclose the sale and his reasons for the sale properly which gave a hack like Adam ample ammunition to write this slanted and unfair piece.

Nader did a cashless option exercise so CytoDyn could make a scheduled payment to Samsung so as to not delay shipment of their drug, leronlimab. Nader knows that his selfless move will save lives and cost him millions in the long run. Adam made no effort to discover this or to investigate it. Adam’s goal was to distort the truth and derail a small company with limited resources. He should be ashamed.
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Cruise lines are buying zero oil.  And most of the fuel that airlines buys are on futures contracts.  They're all would be at zero without government bailouts anyway.

 
QQQs positive on the year. Seems like a lot of the COVID impacted names (casinos, cruises, airlines) are all selling off hard after opening up mostly positive today. 

Saw Frontier is allowing customers to buy the middle seat. Just heard on CNBC that an airline industry group found leaving middle seat empty would leave airlines unprofitable. So of course, they recommended wearing face masks instead. 

 
Preprint of Dr. Patterson's paper.  Long list of co-authors.  Just read the abstract but excited to see this published once peer reviewed.  

 
ConstruxBoy said:
I'm one of those people, but I do think you can have success doing what you are doing. My "can't time the market" advice is more for people that do not and can not spend the time analyzing the trends that you do. They don't have years of experience doing it. They come into internet message boards to ask if they should sell right now or what day they should get back in. I think those people should just stay fully invested, assuming their allocation is correctly tuned to their risk capacity. 
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While agree that what I do is not like 99% of you do.  I would say that for in an investors time frame - all it would take is 5 minutes per month.  THAT's IT!  5 MINUTES.  Probably 6-8 trades per decade.  Miss the stress of bear markets and enjoy the rewards of bull markets and increase your portfolio my 3x+.  Investing is not a game of perfect. 

 
I assume tankers getting smoked by the move in oil coupled with a lot of tourists investing in the space. I still don't understand how they're going to settle the June contract. Maybe it doesn't go negative again but things aren't reopening that quickly. Back end of the curve doesn't make a ton of sense to me but what do I know. 

That said, higher oil prices would in theory be better for the longer-term anyways. But according to Hannisdahl, FRO fixed two VLCCs at $75k/d for 6 months. The breakeven for them is ~$22k/day. So they made money on the year in just 6 months and that rate is ~2x what it was last year. Maybe the trade isn't a 4-5x but instead is 50%-100%. I'm also comfortable owning if they're going to return 10-20% of their market cap to investors this year. 

ETA: Meant to say, with these. I can at least invest in something where I know what earnings will be. I know you're really investing in a company's 10-years of earnings or cash flows so a few quarters isn't everything. But nobody knows what earnings will be for a lot of these companies over the next 18 months. Sure, the earnings a year or two out may not be great here but I'm ok paying up for near-term earnings certainty right now.  

 
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siffoin said:
While agree that what I do is not like 99% of you do.  I would say that for in an investors time frame - all it would take is 5 minutes per month.  THAT's IT!  5 MINUTES.  Probably 6-8 trades per decade.  Miss the stress of bear markets and enjoy the rewards of bull markets and increase your portfolio my 3x+.  Investing is not a game of perfect. 
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So, where would one start to learn how to effectively do this?

 
sporthenry said:
I assume tankers getting smoked by the move in oil coupled with a lot of tourists investing in the space. I still don't understand how they're going to settle the June contract. Maybe it doesn't go negative again but things aren't reopening that quickly. Back end of the curve doesn't make a ton of sense to me but what do I know. 

That said, higher oil prices would in theory be better for the longer-term anyways. But according to Hannisdahl, FRO fixed two VLCCs at $75k/d for 6 months. The breakeven for them is ~$22k/day. So they made money on the year in just 6 months and that rate is ~2x what it was last year. Maybe the trade isn't a 4-5x but instead is 50%-100%. I'm also comfortable owning if they're going to return 10-20% of their market cap to investors this year. 

ETA: Meant to say, with these. I can at least invest in something where I know what earnings will be. I know you're really investing in a company's 10-years of earnings or cash flows so a few quarters isn't everything. But nobody knows what earnings will be for a lot of these companies over the next 18 months. Sure, the earnings a year or two out may not be great here but I'm ok paying up for near-term earnings certainty right now.  
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These four have held up well for me, but it may be just a function of lucky timing:

STNG, NAT, DSSI, TK

If oil drops at the end of the week / early next week and the rest bounce I may start to consolidate a bit. The big basket approach has held up and protected me a bit, but I am willing to risk more on the better performers after about a month of watching these play out (I think...).

 
sporthenry said:
I assume tankers getting smoked by the move in oil coupled with a lot of tourists investing in the space. I still don't understand how they're going to settle the June contract. Maybe it doesn't go negative again but things aren't reopening that quickly. Back end of the curve doesn't make a ton of sense to me but what do I know. 

That said, higher oil prices would in theory be better for the longer-term anyways. But according to Hannisdahl, FRO fixed two VLCCs at $75k/d for 6 months. The breakeven for them is ~$22k/day. So they made money on the year in just 6 months and that rate is ~2x what it was last year. Maybe the trade isn't a 4-5x but instead is 50%-100%. I'm also comfortable owning if they're going to return 10-20% of their market cap to investors this year. 
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Yeah, between FRO and INSW, I'm down about 15%. Relatively small bets, but this certainly wasn't what I was expecting after everything I had read. Apparently I should have made this a very short term play to escape with 10% over a couple of weeks. Lesson learned?  

 
skycriesmary said:
Yeah, between FRO and INSW, I'm down about 15%. Relatively small bets, but this certainly wasn't what I was expecting after everything I had read. Apparently I should have made this a very short term play to escape with 10% over a couple of weeks. Lesson learned?  
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Well I'm not ready to admit defeat or I'm in for a more painful lesson. Contrary to this thread, I'm not a huge trader. Just a lot of free time on my hands now and lot of vol so it's essentially passing the time. But most of my stuff is usually longer-term holds. When I jumped in to this, I knew two things. I had no idea what really drove these tankers on a day to day basis and that I may have to hold these for a few months. 

I usually leg in to stuff and if things move too quickly in my favor, I never get fully invested. Here, I've had the chance to get fully invested and then some. While I had hoped it would be a quick double, this could be more lucrative since I got to invest more. So a few weeks of poor price action hasn't scared me. Now if things continue in this trend two weeks from now, after earnings and June contract settlement, then I may take my tank and go home. These tankers are down 15%, 30%, 45% YTD while QQQs just turned positive for the year. These things are likely doubling their earnings for the year. And there just seems to be a dislocation in the market. Given where stocks are, I doubt tankers are going to be building new tanks and flooding the market (not to mention that can't happen overnight). So in what scenario is the economy justifying current valuations in the market that has tankers making 9k/d? I am sure there is a scenario but that seems like a perfect storm where everyone is going out, eating, cruises, airlines, etc but tankers aren't needed.

 
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Just sold off the rest of the cydy I acquired yesterday for a 20%+ profit.  Thanks shorts.

Just sold the bulk of my Wyndham.  It was up 10% today and 20% from when I acquired it.  Will look to add back later.  

Still working under the premise that any significant daily outperformed gets trimmed by 50% and I either build cash or look for something significantly under forming on the day.

 
[icon] said:
Woot! :popcorn:  

I wish I understood how these work. Anyone have a link to a decent writeup so I don't have to bug poor siff? :lol:  

Not sure if I can trade these in my Fidelity Rollover IRA. I've activated high risk stuff like TVIX but not options. 
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I don't think I can do this in my Fidelity or Vanguard IRAs.

 
[icon] said:
Woot! :popcorn:  

I wish I understood how these work. Anyone have a link to a decent writeup so I don't have to bug poor siff? :lol:  

Not sure if I can trade these in my Fidelity Rollover IRA. I've activated high risk stuff like TVIX but not options. 
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It's a dangerous game.  Made worser by trying to attempt under stressful market conditions

 
Threw a little bear put spread on DIS ahead of earnings. Puts seem more active than calls and premium for some OTM puts are pretty high. 

 
siffoin said:
While agree that what I do is not like 99% of you do.  I would say that for in an investors time frame - all it would take is 5 minutes per month.  THAT's IT!  5 MINUTES.  Probably 6-8 trades per decade.  Miss the stress of bear markets and enjoy the rewards of bull markets and increase your portfolio my 3x+.  Investing is not a game of perfect. 
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Sounds like I need to call a 1-900 number... 

:D

j/k - glad your method works so well. 

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
Do you trade currencies? Playing around with EM / Euro puts and dollar calls. 
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I have.  But I don't these days.  Please understand - there is a lot of danger with these instruments.  I have traded eminis for more than 15 years.  There was a time in 2006-2010 I could really do no wrong.  And there was a time from 2012-2018 where I could do no right.

I'm of the very strong opinion that you guys should just seek out great companies with strong fundamentals that you believe in and buy them in the early stage of a bull trend and sell them once that trend is complete.  Literally that's all you have to do and you will be very successful over the long haul.

 
siffoin said:
I have.  But I don't these days.  Please understand - there is a lot of danger with these instruments.  I have traded eminis for more than 15 years.  There was a time in 2006-2010 I could really do no wrong.  And there was a time from 2012-2018 where I could do no right.

I'm of the very strong opinion that you guys should just seek out great companies with strong fundamentals that you believe in and buy them in the early stage of a bull trend and sell them once that trend is complete.  Literally that's all you have to do and you will be very successful over the long haul.
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This assumes things remain relatively status quo/stable. I won't go so far as to call JTG an anarchist, but he's not ready to make that assumption imo

 
siffoin said:
I have.  But I don't these days.  Please understand - there is a lot of danger with these instruments.  I have traded eminis for more than 15 years.  There was a time in 2006-2010 I could really do no wrong.  And there was a time from 2012-2018 where I could do no right.

I'm of the very strong opinion that you guys should just seek out great companies with strong fundamentals that you believe in and buy them in the early stage of a bull trend and sell them once that trend is complete.  Literally that's all you have to do and you will be very successful over the long haul.
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I agree with this 100%. Trying to buy and sell frequently, along with swing trades is stressful, much more difficult, yields less fruit too. That's why I picked a bunch of companies I love, and currently I'm averaging in. Simply no reason for 99.9% of the population to do anything else but own companies you love. Took me a long long time to learn that lesson. 

 
I actually followed the bull bear thing with a decent amount of coin @siffoin did back then. There was one month that made up a huge chunk of the gains over the 8 or 9 I followed. Forget what it was, some thinly traded ETF ADTE ARTE something like that, I don't even remember, it was an E Trade account I no longer even have active. 

We'd rotate into the most bullish ETF at the end of the month, iirc?

Can you backdate the piker account, I'm curious how it would've performed...

 
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sporthenry said:
Threw a little bear put spread on DIS ahead of earnings. Puts seem more active than calls and premium for some OTM puts are pretty high. 
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Bought a put spread (bearish) or sold it (neutral to bullish)? By the context of your post, sounds like you sold a credit spread.

 
FTR, not really "trading" in the traditional day trading sense. Opening some long / short positions in currencies and commodities with mid summer expirations and getting out the :popcorn:

 
fantasycurse42 said:
What's up with CYDY? That's why I logged here to begin with... Up 16% caught my attention.
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There was a pre-print of Dr. Patterson's paper released (link posted above) and also another deal was struck this morning on a manufacturing partnership for leronlimab to support Covid-19 efforts.  The weekend issue of sold warrants/options inside the company caused the drop yesterday but that seems old news with today's increase.  Or at least investors aren't worried as much about it.

Meanwhile, new short attack articles were tweeted and published today to try and drive the SP down.  Seems so far those aren't causing the fear and selling that they'd hoped for. Hopefully it keeps pushing upward.  

 
pecorino said:
Bought a put spread (bearish) or sold it (neutral to bullish)? By the context of your post, sounds like you sold a credit spread.
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Sorry if unclear bought the debit (bearish put spread). Just looking for unusual option activity that mimics my fundamental view on companies. DIS makes all of its money on things that are getting crushed. Investors may not look beyond DIS Plus numbers but have to think the amount of money they're losing there will put a damper on things. And market may like what they hear about reopening. But that's why I'm just taking advantage of elevated IV. Entered DIS May 8 100/98P for $0.70. 

ETA: I mostly mentioned it just to let the DIS longs that there are a lot of puts being traded. I mean I'm just gambling small but couldn't pass up an almost 2 to 1 risk reward. 

 
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Walking Boot said:
That was a different strategy, the "sector rotation", which followed a few ETFs (like S&P, Large Caps, Small Caps, International, Bonds) and would rotate the whole amount into whichever was strongest each month.

I think what he's saying in the other, is, take whatever your allocations are, say, 25% large, 25% small, 25% foreign, 25% bonds... and say if your large cap fund drops below the 8MA, sell it off and go to cash. If the others are above, keep them. Once the large cap goes back above the 8MA, buy back into it with the cash. Some months you may sell off more than 1, or most, and be in cash in a lot of places, just keep track of what to buy back in at. 

I think, at least. Not an expert.
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ADRE, it was emerging markets, that was the biggest monthly gainer!

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I actually followed the bull bear thing with a decent amount of coin @siffoin did back then. There was one month that made up a huge chunk of the gains over the 8 or 9 I followed. Forget what it was, some thinly traded ETF ADTE ARTE something like that, I don't even remember, it was an E Trade account I no longer even have active. 

We'd rotate into the most bullish ETF at the end of the month, iirc?

Can you backdate the piker account, I'm curious how it would've performed...
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This was a very good idea, but brought to you guys way too early.  I really regret that.

It's something I kept picking at...trying to figure it out.  It evolved.

These days it is a monthly rotation that selects 2 stocks.  Basically an algorithm runs each month that selects the 2 best stocks.  It holds those for 1 month and the selection process runs again.  It's possible a "top" stock remains selected for more than 1 month.  The system got tested for about 18 months and then went live trading last year.  Under the current market I'm choosing not to run the algo...and that part of the portfolio is just in cash.  When it runs I have no idea what stocks might be selected.  Many times I've never even heard of them. It's done well imo.  If you are interested in the results pm me.

Note:  this is currently all in $CASH.  I don't know when I'm going to trade off of it again.

 
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siffoin said:
This was a very good idea, but brought to you guys way too early.  I really regret that.

It's something I kept picking at...trying to figure it out.  It evolved.

These days it is a monthly rotation that selects 2 stocks.  Basically an algorithm runs each month that selects the 2 best stocks.  It holds those for 1 month and the selection process runs again.  It's possible a "top" stock remains selected for more than 1 month.  The system got tested for about 18 months and then went live trading last year.  Under the current market I'm choosing not to run the algo...and that part of the portfolio is just in cash.  When it runs I have no idea what stocks might be selected.  Many times I've never even heard of them. It's done well imo.  If you are interested in the results pm me.
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Holy crap yes.  Do you actually run a hedge fund?

 
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