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Stock Thread (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
General Malaise
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Caveman33
Footballguy
Thanks. It's already approaching the ATH of 103. My first instinct is to sell and lock in the gains but my instincts are usually bad. It will probably reach 110 later this week. Kinda disappointed that I didn't buy the $85 calls that I considered.Just in time.
Todem
Footballguy
I picked this up for my kids account when it first came out around 73 a share.......before I bought it I asked my son....how many people play on this platform.....he told me “millions upon millions of kids are addicted to this and the games are unlimited.....they have something for everyone and it will never die”.
Done.
A Peter Lynch moment.
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The General
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't mean to be the party pooper, and obviously better off not listening to me so far, but my kids got into Roblox like 8 months ago and make me play it with them and I just don't see how this thing has the legs to meet these valuations, personally.
Not that it necessarily matters for the stock price, but their tech support is basically worst in class. They have major bugs that prevent people from booting into the game for months at a time and there is zero support for it or any even acknowledgement of the bugs existence. On a larger scale unlike every other major game they don't communicate with the fanbase at all when there are major outages. They recently had some server issues that prevented huge swaths of their playerbase from being able to access the game recently and there were few to no updates on their twitter account for 6 days until the problem, which they never even acknowledges in the first place, was fixed.
Beyond that they have a very narrow target age range. Maybe I'm wrong on this, but it seems like something that kids grow out of pretty quickly. Both on the player side and dev side. Good developers graduate up to Unity, gamers graduate up to real games.
Also I think they are going to have to come up with new ways to create revenue. The revenue model right now is silly. It works the same as all other games (you spend money to buy Robux, then you can spend Robux in game). The problem is the whole point of Roblox is you can play a ton of different tiny games, and the things you buy with Robux don't carry over from game to game. A lot of these games have a play span of like 15 minutes to an hour and then there is nothing left to do. So why would people spend real money for some new weapon in a game they're only playing for 15 minutes? A lot of these are upgrades to make a 15 minute game beatable in 5 minutes instead of 15. It's bizarre.
Granted, this could be a good thing as well I guess, since every time you start a new game you have 0 purchased upgrades so now you have to start over and buy new stuff. But I think people will catch on to how silly it is to spend real money on these tiny games that you play once or twice and then move on from. Again, granted, my 7 year old wants Robux to buy something in every Roblox game he plays. But as a parent I'm constantly like "hell no I'm not letting you spend any money on this, you will be done with this mini-game forever in 10 minutes".
Again, take it for what it's worth. It's not like I'm shorting it or anything, I just haven't bought any (minus the 1 share my son owns as a gift from his uncle, which he was super excited to see skyrocket today). And again, granted, the thing has been skyrocketing since it went public so maybe I'm just totally wrong on this. But it will probably open with a $60 billion market cap tomorrow on a game that will likely do around $1.5 billion revenue this year with little to zero profit. I just don't see where that profit, or growth is going to come from with the narrow age range the game is suitable for. Granted, again, it's been growing just fine so far so maybe I'm misreading it, but it seems like something that is going to top out well below where it's currently valued.
Oh, and I forgot, just as another example of how I think they miss the boat from a support standpoint. This game is like a decade old and they still don't have an option to allow people to turn off voice/text chat. It's a persistent world so people are playing online by default. Older kids I think will age of this thing pretty quickly, but younger kids are (or should) likely turned away by their parents because there's no way to prevent your kid from being open to being chatted up by a bunch of strangers. Xbox has actually blocked chat in the game entirely on the Xbox since Roblox doesn't have an on/off option, which is the only reason my kids are allowed to play the game. If we didn't have an Xbox there's no way I'd let my 5 and 7 year old play on one of the other platforms where any stranger can wander up to them in the game and start soliciting them via chat.
Again, not trying to be a party pooper because things have been going great for the stock, but just offering an alternative view. It's totally fair to say I could be wrong on 90% of this and I'm just an old fogey that doesn't understand it. On the flipside it seems like the general bull thesis for buyers is "my kids play it and talk about it a lot, so it must be popular and great and a money printer".
Not that it necessarily matters for the stock price, but their tech support is basically worst in class. They have major bugs that prevent people from booting into the game for months at a time and there is zero support for it or any even acknowledgement of the bugs existence. On a larger scale unlike every other major game they don't communicate with the fanbase at all when there are major outages. They recently had some server issues that prevented huge swaths of their playerbase from being able to access the game recently and there were few to no updates on their twitter account for 6 days until the problem, which they never even acknowledges in the first place, was fixed.
Beyond that they have a very narrow target age range. Maybe I'm wrong on this, but it seems like something that kids grow out of pretty quickly. Both on the player side and dev side. Good developers graduate up to Unity, gamers graduate up to real games.
Also I think they are going to have to come up with new ways to create revenue. The revenue model right now is silly. It works the same as all other games (you spend money to buy Robux, then you can spend Robux in game). The problem is the whole point of Roblox is you can play a ton of different tiny games, and the things you buy with Robux don't carry over from game to game. A lot of these games have a play span of like 15 minutes to an hour and then there is nothing left to do. So why would people spend real money for some new weapon in a game they're only playing for 15 minutes? A lot of these are upgrades to make a 15 minute game beatable in 5 minutes instead of 15. It's bizarre.
Granted, this could be a good thing as well I guess, since every time you start a new game you have 0 purchased upgrades so now you have to start over and buy new stuff. But I think people will catch on to how silly it is to spend real money on these tiny games that you play once or twice and then move on from. Again, granted, my 7 year old wants Robux to buy something in every Roblox game he plays. But as a parent I'm constantly like "hell no I'm not letting you spend any money on this, you will be done with this mini-game forever in 10 minutes".
Again, take it for what it's worth. It's not like I'm shorting it or anything, I just haven't bought any (minus the 1 share my son owns as a gift from his uncle, which he was super excited to see skyrocket today). And again, granted, the thing has been skyrocketing since it went public so maybe I'm just totally wrong on this. But it will probably open with a $60 billion market cap tomorrow on a game that will likely do around $1.5 billion revenue this year with little to zero profit. I just don't see where that profit, or growth is going to come from with the narrow age range the game is suitable for. Granted, again, it's been growing just fine so far so maybe I'm misreading it, but it seems like something that is going to top out well below where it's currently valued.
Oh, and I forgot, just as another example of how I think they miss the boat from a support standpoint. This game is like a decade old and they still don't have an option to allow people to turn off voice/text chat. It's a persistent world so people are playing online by default. Older kids I think will age of this thing pretty quickly, but younger kids are (or should) likely turned away by their parents because there's no way to prevent your kid from being open to being chatted up by a bunch of strangers. Xbox has actually blocked chat in the game entirely on the Xbox since Roblox doesn't have an on/off option, which is the only reason my kids are allowed to play the game. If we didn't have an Xbox there's no way I'd let my 5 and 7 year old play on one of the other platforms where any stranger can wander up to them in the game and start soliciting them via chat.
Again, not trying to be a party pooper because things have been going great for the stock, but just offering an alternative view. It's totally fair to say I could be wrong on 90% of this and I'm just an old fogey that doesn't understand it. On the flipside it seems like the general bull thesis for buyers is "my kids play it and talk about it a lot, so it must be popular and great and a money printer".
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I wonder if AMD is a driver behind RBLX's pop. AMD was up huge because of the team up with FB/Meta on metaverse stuff. Fresh in the mind of investors and RBLX's earnings come that night and not much after FB's name change.
I only wonder because bookings is a big measure for RBLX, almost more so than revenue (didn't even see a revenue estimate) and while they beat estimates, it was only by 0.2% or 3.1%. $637.8 vs estimates of $636.5M or $618.8M (saw both figures used for estimates). Earnings was a loss of 13 cents vs loss of 14 cents estimated. I'm not a doctor, but slim beats like that in the tech space are normally met with drops not 30% boosts. That makes me wonder if the huge pop by AMD for metaverse stuff spilled over to a small beat to make it a big one.
Will be interested to see premarket prices because post market prices tend to be way more volatile than regular hours or premarket. I'd bet a big jump, but maybe 20% or less? Seems like the results don't warrant a 30-36% AHs jump so I wouldn't be surprised if it loses steam as the AHs folks will run with metaverse more than regular hours.
@Todem I definitely having been trading stocks for a long time, but are volatile prices, like seeing tons of +/- 10% to 30% daily gains in what seems like a lot of stocks, indicative of getting to a peak? I've lived through the last 3 big crashes, but I wasn't an active individual stock watcher outside of companies I knew intimately, but unfortunately didn't work for one that hit.
I only wonder because bookings is a big measure for RBLX, almost more so than revenue (didn't even see a revenue estimate) and while they beat estimates, it was only by 0.2% or 3.1%. $637.8 vs estimates of $636.5M or $618.8M (saw both figures used for estimates). Earnings was a loss of 13 cents vs loss of 14 cents estimated. I'm not a doctor, but slim beats like that in the tech space are normally met with drops not 30% boosts. That makes me wonder if the huge pop by AMD for metaverse stuff spilled over to a small beat to make it a big one.
Will be interested to see premarket prices because post market prices tend to be way more volatile than regular hours or premarket. I'd bet a big jump, but maybe 20% or less? Seems like the results don't warrant a 30-36% AHs jump so I wouldn't be surprised if it loses steam as the AHs folks will run with metaverse more than regular hours.
@Todem I definitely having been trading stocks for a long time, but are volatile prices, like seeing tons of +/- 10% to 30% daily gains in what seems like a lot of stocks, indicative of getting to a peak? I've lived through the last 3 big crashes, but I wasn't an active individual stock watcher outside of companies I knew intimately, but unfortunately didn't work for one that hit.
Todem
Footballguy
Well.....you have seen my posts lately.....can’t find a lot of value, building cash, selling covered calls.stbugs said:
I think we are peaking out here short term. We are no doubt due for a healthy pullback. I don’t think it is coming this year. But 1st or 2nd quarter next year we will most likely see the markets proactive pullback before rates start going up and the Fed tapering in full swing. Recalibration I like to call it. You want to own high quality when this happens.
Most stocks are not cheap.
These 20% and 30% moves are typical of extremely high multiple speculative stocks.
Also did anyone notice the small rotation in today's trading? Defensive names (staples, utilities, food) were getting hit.....and high beta, high risk was on. And Crypto.....oh boy that won’t be pretty when those roosters come home to roost on that.
I am being cautious with new money and again building cash. I expect a sale in the near future.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
Sure, I know the historical cycles always have them but I didn't know if you were eluding to something else.
Wild Young Billy
A Crazy Cat
Anyone here buying ETH options? BTC?
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
UUUU 
It’s meme 101. In the same vein as AMC talking about crypto and free popcorn. These companies are doing everything they can to keep stock prices artificially high.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
NVDA popping another 5% in pre-market as they announce self-driving car partnerships.
This is where you can tell we are near a peak again. A company expanding their market cap $35B by announcing they have a LIDAR supplier. This is a partnership like GME’s “partnership” with Microsoft after buying their products. It’s a big deal for Luminar because it should increase their future revenue but for NVDA it’s no different than a normal top supplier relationship.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Pipes
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
Buckle up. We may be in for a rough day.
I know they missed but anyone know PayPal well? It seemed like it was hard to know how much was a core miss and how much was based on people buying crypto. SQ has the same thing that I think makes it hard to know how much revenue isn’t really revenue.
Also, man I hate media sometimes. I’ve noticed that Yahoo appears very negative on Amazon and positive on Walmart and other competitors. I only notice as an investor but this article?
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/paypal-down-venmo-amazon-partnership-144957689.html
The title is “PayPal down after its Venmo-Amazon partnership, Palantir sales force expansion” and even the article almost alludes to PayPal being down because of a partnership with Amazon. Just so weird to word it like that which is definitely intentional.
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Speaking of which, I’m almost surprised that there isn’t any news on AFRM or a bigger drop. The Amazon partnership for Affirm was a big pop for the stock and PayPal getting in with Amazon would worry me because they are working on BNPL and they just got a foothold in the door.
McBokonon
Footballguy
$GLBE reports today and lockup expiration was yesterday. Didn’t really got hammered too hard - possibly the decline over the last month or so was pricing it in. Been waiting for these events to determine how much, if any, I want to add. Looking forward to the report along with everything else.
I’m waiting for tonight to add more if needed. It’s a good chunk that I’m happy to ride with if it goes up so much tonight that I don’t want to add more. Let’s hope!
I added some on Friday at $52 so brought my cost down. It has been treated like a red headed step child lately.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Anyone have any thoughts about Panera Bread going public? HUGS is the SPAC.
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Not really interested. Is there a lot of room for growth? I like the food but that’s it.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Big rally in bonds the last few days.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Sand
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
@BassNBrew How's AMZN treating you? It's the only reason I'm having a nice day. TTD up nicely too, but enough red to overwhelm that.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Todem said:
I bought it early on because my kids are addicted to it. But it was turning them into real jerks and they'd get into fights, so I sold it for the moral decay it was creating in my children. But over time, they played it less and less and yet, they still fight and now I've cost myself several thousands in profits AND I have rotten children. Neat.
PLTR is basically back to even for me. They beat bottom and top line so not sure why it got hammered. Maybe it’s still expensive based on sales?PLTR and BLDP:X
BLDP was not something I ever bought, but man this article about their earnings wasn’t kind (not mean just tough results):
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/09/ballard-power-bloom-energy-nikola-stocks-drop/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Seems like a hope the infrastructure bill can save us.
