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Stock Thread (3 Viewers)

ericttspikes said:
Can't the market accomplish this on it's own without the Fed? In the spring, lumber prices were soaring. Most people, including myself, just put off projects requiring lumber because it was crazy to buy a 2x4 for $50 or whatever it was, and then the floor fell out of the lumber market.

I expect the same will happen with the new and used car market. We sold one of our cars and I simply didn't want to pay for an over inflated car and will continue as a one car family until that market busts too. The car manufactures are partially building cars and parking them on their lots waiting for chips. Not sure when, but at some point there is going to be a massive over supply of vehicles out there. Seems dangerous to raise rates to cool the economy and then in a few months have the floors fall out of these supply constrained sectors. But I'm also not an economist. I do know I'm consciously not panic buying anything discretionary, putting off projects and tightening the belt for now in most areas except food and energy consumption.
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They should have been raising rates in 2018 like they did but then it got political. I know they say the Fed is not political…..it is.

We have been in a near zero interest rate environment for over 12 years and counting.

if the pandemic never happened we would have been seeing interest rates moving up by now. It is inevitable and there is nothing now to stop what should have been done 3 years ago.

It can solve itself to only a certain degree. Monetary policy in combination with consumer habits will get this inflation under control far faster than sitting at all time low interest rates.

They are not going to raise them fast. But the correction I am talking about will be long over by the time they make maybe their second interest rate hike. This is going to be a reactionary correction to a shift in monetary policy.

I am not predicting a crash or a recession.

Again not slamming on the brakes….I said pumping the brakes.

Big difference.

 
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Todem said:
They should have been raising rates in 2018 like they did but then it got political. I know they say the Fed is not political…..it is.

We have been in a near zero interest rate environment for over 12 years and counting.

if the pandemic never happened we would have been seeing interest rates moving up by now. It is inevitable and there is nothing now to stop what should have been done 3 years ago.
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Like I said, I'm not an economist, just a guy trying to get through life. Other than slowing down the economy, making debt more expensive, giving a higher return on savings accounts and making more money for banks, I guess I don't understand the need to raise interest rates. Even the tax code has changed to make debt even more punitive. Not sure I see why getting kicked in the nuts by the Fed makes me less willing to buy a $50k used car that I already won't buy, but I guess they know what they are doing.

 
ericttspikes said:
Like I said, I'm not an economist, just a guy trying to get through life. Other than slowing down the economy, making debt more expensive, giving a higher return on savings accounts and making more money for banks, I guess I don't understand the need to raise interest rates. Even the tax code has changed to make debt even more punitive. Not sure I see why getting kicked in the nuts by the Fed makes me less willing to buy a $50k used car that I already won't buy, but I guess they know what they are doing.
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The higher our interest rates go....the more enticing our treasury bonds become to finance all the spending our government does. The more treasuries we sell to finance our debt...the stronger our dollar becomes. 

Again checks and balances. Our economy is incredibly strong right now but we simply do not have the supply to meet the demand.....so you gotta slow that demand down here a little and let supply catch up....which is going to take another year BTW. 2023 things will be a lot better. Prices should ease but more importantly......and this is the whole key....stop them from continuing to go up at this rate (5-6% inflation rate). That is why it needs to be done. Otherwise you will feel a lot more pain at the pump, the grocery store.....everywhere. 

I am no economist either....no way. Just sharing some life wisdom is all.

All good and hope everyone has a great weekend......time to enjoy it!!

 
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Todem said:
I will post in here when to deploy. And it may take a month, 3 months, 5 months.

I am speculating a correction next year. When? I am not that good.
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So, you say 30% cash.  What are you including in the denominator?

Also, hold index funds (non retirement) and REITs?  I'm not a day trader and more of a hold, hold, hold....crap I should have sold.  Although I did sell SE for a 300% profit.  Only actual stock I have left is AMX.

 
Orange&Blue said:
So, you say 30% cash.  What are you including in the denominator?

Also, hold index funds (non retirement) and REITs?  I'm not a day trader and more of a hold, hold, hold....crap I should have sold.  Although I did sell SE for a 300% profit.  Only actual stock I have left is AMX.
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The denominator is your entire portfolio.
 

If your’re100% equity now you’re 70% equity 30% cash.

 
Swaymoney said:
I love me some SHOP!!!
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I didn’t trim any of that like @McBokonon did but I was tempted on such a good day. I only bought 6 shares back last March because I bought a full share of it, Etsy and Datadog (all have done well, lol) combined. It’s still 5x’d. I don’t see it 5xing again anytime soon but I think I want to keep some exposure to it. It’s kind of like Amazon and Apple and such where you don’t feel like the business will be an issue. 

 
I sold a few things that either I didn’t have enough of to really make a difference or I didn’t feel like they had big futures.

I’m at about 15% cash in investments minus 401ks and non directable stuff. I may trim some more as I do want to add some new stuff but I may progress slowly. My worst investments were things I bought early in the year although some stuff I bought this year (UPST for one) has been fine. 

 
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stbugs said:
I sold a few things that either I didn’t have enough of to really make a difference or I didn’t feel like they had big futures.

I’m at about 15% cash in investments minus 401ks and non directable stuff. I may trim some more as I do want to add some new stuff but I may progress slowly. My worst investments were things I bought early in the year although some stuff I bought this year (UPST for one) has been fine. 
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Yeah, its been a bad year for me in starting new positions too. Thankfully my banking and energy positions have been rewarded this year to pump up the returns. Making sure to buy some more VOO each time the market has pulled back has helped get cash in smartly too.

 
eaganwildcats said:
An interesting way to play bitcoin if you don’t want to actually deal with the headache of buying and subsequently not getting them stolen / losing them is to invest in $BRPHF aka Galaxy Digital Holdings. Current market cap is 62.9 million. Has around 80 million in bitcoin alone. Looks like first quarter wasn’t pretty trading but seems like there is upside in the investments above and beyond just the trading. 

This represents your ewildcat obscure ticker of the evening. 
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Oops. Sold a 50-bagger wayyyy too soon. Smh. 

 
Someone around the corner has listed their home for a solid $200k over the Zestimate. I wish them luck as it is only slightly larger than mine.

 
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Todem said:
So earlier I said my home went up 25% in a year......I was wrong. 

It is 37% higher now. 

Insane.
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I’m almost at a double from buying early 2019.  House next to mine that is same model, sq feet etc just sold two weeks ago for close to a double. It’s crazy. 

 
Todem said:
They should have been raising rates in 2018 like they did but then it got political. I know they say the Fed is not political…..it is.

We have been in a near zero interest rate environment for over 12 years and counting.

if the pandemic never happened we would have been seeing interest rates moving up by now. It is inevitable and there is nothing now to stop what should have been done 3 years ago.

It can solve itself to only a certain degree. Monetary policy in combination with consumer habits will get this inflation under control far faster than sitting at all time low interest rates.

They are not going to raise them fast. But the correction I am talking about will be long over by the time they make maybe their second interest rate hike. This is going to be a reactionary correction to a shift in monetary policy.

I am not predicting a crash or a recession.

Again not slamming on the brakes….I said pumping the brakes.

Big difference.
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100%  Then there was an enormous tax cut when we should have been raising taxes.  I'm not being political here, when the economy is roaring, raise revenue, when it's struggling, cut taxes.  I don't care who is in the WH,it's pretty basic stuff. 

Thank God Powell didn't bow to Trump's pressure and cut rates to zero or even negative, like he wanted.   Again, not trying to be political, this is a fact. 

Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again,” he tweeted. “No ‘guts,’ no sense, no vision!”

Trump wants the Fed to push interest rates down to zero or even into negative territory. Trump argues that the current rates put the U.S. at a competitive disadvantage to other countries, and touts the historically low levels of inflation as evidence that the economy is well-positioned to handle such low borrowing rates
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ETA

Deleted my shot at Elizabeth Warren. Certainly could be viewed as political. My apologies.

 
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2Squirrels1Nut said:
100%  Then there was an enormous tax cut when we should have been raising taxes.  I'm not being political here, when the economy is roaring, raise revenue, when it's struggling, cut taxes.  I don't care who is in the WH,it's pretty basic stuff. 

Thank God Powell didn't bow to Trump's pressure and cut rates to zero or even negative, like he wanted.   Again, not trying to be political, this is a fact. 

Thank God again Trump didn't fire Powell and replace him with a yes man like he did in so many other positions.  We could be in really deep trouble then.  I'm so thankful we had him in there and why Warren should be sending him flowers instead of calling him "a dangerous man"and trying to oust him. 
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meh politics 

 
KGB said:
meh politics 
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I hear you and but it's intertwined with the market. Don't want to go there in this thread but if we're talking about inflation, historical fed policy and why we're here, there isn't any way around it. As @Todemposted, this situation we're in now could have at least been partially avoided. 

 
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With all the supply congestion, can we expect a run on rail , trucking and shipping stocks..?  Rates are up dramatically and record profits for some.  

 
stlrams said:
With all the supply congestion, can we expect a run on rail , trucking and shipping stocks..?  Rates are up dramatically and record profits for some.  
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I would think it would be the opposite.  Business can't get any better than it has been the last six months or so.  

 
2Squirrels1Nut said:
With all of the worldwide inflation were seeing, how come prices of precious metals have barely moved?  
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I am the furthest thing from an economist and am probably totally wrong about this, but I think a lot of the inflation concern is nonsense and I think the kind of people and institutions with enough money to move huge markets like metals recognize this, which is why they haven't really made changes to their investments that you would expect to see alongside record inflation.

Obviously we've printed a ton of money in the last 2 years and there is more inflation than normal, but I think the numbers are hugely inflated by temporary supply shortages.  People go on and on about stuff like used car prices.  But used car prices haven't risen because of inflation, they've risen because there are huge shortages in new cars due to supply issues so people can upcharge on cars with demand massively outpacing supply.

There are SO many industries right now that are the same, where supply has been massively reduced due to shipping issues around the pandemic which creates an artificial and temporary imbalance towards demand, which naturally is going to allow everyone to raise prices.

Look at something like lumber, which obviously was making headlines a few months ago.  Now that the supply issues are resolved with lumber the price is almost at the same level it was in 2018.  I think we'll see this in a ton of industries as supply issues are resolved.

Again, more inflation than normal, sure.  But the numbers are artificially pumped with so many things rising in price temporarily for reasons beyond inflation.

Just my 2 cents.  Again, probably totally wrong on most of it.

 
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I mentioned before that I’m not buying and selling much any more, but COIN has been great. I think it’s my quickest 50% gain after buying on September 28. 
 

the only thing is when you only use a small amount, your gains don’t really move the needle. 🤷

 
-OZ- said:
I mentioned before that I’m not buying and selling much any more, but COIN has been great. I think it’s my quickest 50% gain after buying on September 28. 
 

the only thing is when you only use a small amount, your gains don’t really move the needle. 🤷
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I’m actually amazed at COIN. They missed earnings badly last week. The type of miss that normally knocks you down 20-30% and it barely registered. Seems like there’s going to be a lot of competition and like stock trading, it may be a battle to lowest fees.

 
Morgan Stanley downgrading $CRWD because they love being wrong on growth companies. I'd be adding if I didn't already have so much.

 
I have no idea why the price action is so crazy, but MTTR must have a beta of 83 or so.  Up 15% this morning on... no news.

I fully expect -10% tomorrow.

 
Sand said:
I have no idea why the price action is so crazy, but MTTR must have a beta of 83 or so.  Up 15% this morning on... no news.

I fully expect -10% tomorrow.
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I sold some warrants today for a 60% profit.  I bought to hold and go long but this has been an amazing day trader with all these double digit % swings.  

 
stbugs said:
I’m actually amazed at COIN. They missed earnings badly last week. The type of miss that normally knocks you down 20-30% and it barely registered. Seems like there’s going to be a lot of competition and like stock trading, it may be a battle to lowest fees.
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My thinking is that COIN will evolve massively in the future and it won't just be all about crypto transaction fees. Kinda like AMZN valuation when they were just an online bookseller seemed crazy, but was really a bet on the internet being a massive opportunity. Brian Armstrong is a sharp guy and they have a solid talent pool working for them. Next up is their NFT platform to challenge Opensea. Beyond that, the possibilities are endless IMO if a person believes crypto is real and here to stay. 

 
stbugs said:
I’m actually amazed at COIN. They missed earnings badly last week. The type of miss that normally knocks you down 20-30% and it barely registered. Seems like there’s going to be a lot of competition and like stock trading, it may be a battle to lowest fees.
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Sold at $346.25

ericttspikes said:
My thinking is that COIN will evolve massively in the future and it won't just be all about crypto transaction fees. Kinda like AMZN valuation when they were just an online bookseller seemed crazy, but was really a bet on the internet being a massive opportunity. Brian Armstrong is a sharp guy and they have a solid talent pool working for them. Next up is their NFT platform to challenge Opensea. Beyond that, the possibilities are endless IMO if a person believes crypto is real and here to stay. 
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Bought back in at $343

🤷

 
Sand said:
Word leaked that I own it.   :P

Seriously, no idea.  This one just seems to jump around all over.  
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That's why I bought MTTR :thumbup: .

I just assumed that with the volume up big it's probably Instructional/ETF buying.  Only thing I saw was this:

*Matterport Option Alert: Fri $25 Calls at the Ask: 100 @ $2.5 vs 6377 OI; Ref=$26.539 12:28:44; Matterport Option Alert: Fri $22.5 Calls Sweep (3) near the Ask: 100 @ $4.397 vs 4920 OI; Ref=$26.5986

 
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