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Stock Thread (25 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
No because unfortunately I'm still holding.
The bottom of my trading account, sorted by % of portfolio, is all risky swings I got from this board: SE (-71%), BLDP (-80%), QS (-81%), TRUFF (-76%), PLGNF (-91%), RVVTF (-85%, but I actually sold most of my holdings in this one up quite a bit), and of course HGEN (-99.9%....come on, you can do it!)
Good thing those risky swings were less than 10% of this account, which is less than 10% of my portfolio. But speaks to why like 80% of my portfolio is just a bunch of broad or sector ETFs.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Well today hurt a bit
Generally speaking, buying a stock that is making a new 52 week low (really a ~160 week low) after a disaster of an earnings report in an overextended market that is now in a downtrend isn't the best idea. However, if you liked it at $350...
Capella
Footballguy
Maybe we all are just really bad at this lmao
General Malaise
Footballguy
It's also really really really hard!
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
There’s a reason most people underperform the broad market
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Yup, study after study shows a handful of stocks make up 65-80% of the market's gains. So either only invest in those (easy, right?) or just invest in the broader market so you don't miss out on any of those.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Haven’t posted in this thread much lately—but I felt like I should post this and let people kinda digest it and decide for themselves. I do want to make crystal clear that I’m not posting this with any sort of political angle or intent—and I ask that it doesn’t get interpreted in any sort of political manner.
Over the past many weeks—generally on the nights when I battle insomnia—I’ve been spending some time researching the economic situation in China. Keep in mind that I do have vendors, acquaintances, and contacts that are/were in China or still have a lot of connections in China. The notion or idea that China manipulates or financially engineers its numbers is widely accepted—but I’m very much of the belief that the Chinese economy is unraveling very quickly.
The real estate market over there (which basically represents a large portion of their economy) is effectively a collapsing Ponzi scheme. Virtually every country in the world had an economic spike when they reopened things after Covid—but China’s re-opening was greeted with deflation. The youth unemployment rate which China claims is 21.7% is massively high—but many people think the actual number is closer to 40%. The number is bound to grow with the biblical flooding that hit lots of China over the past few weeks. The government is trying to censor and downplay the floods by saying something like 29 or 39 people died, but most people close to the situation think the actual death toll is in the tens of thousands. Factories were closing before the floods, and certainly many more of them will be extinct after the floods. In the past day—China surprisingly lowered interest rates, but they also announced that they will no longer be reporting the youth unemployment rates. Just like they are trying to censor the flood disaster, just like they tried to downplay Covid when it first broke out—there seems to be a situation where China's actions are not lining up with their cadence. I personally find this worrisome.
My contacts in China tell me that stores in major economic hubs in China are closing all of the time. A vendor/friend of mine is in Shanghai and is in an area where well paid foreigners tend to rent/be located—and he said that the area is becoming a ghost town. He also said that rents have massively fallen in that area because there are soo many vacancies. You effectively have an economy where they have a massive real estate problem, a significant unemployment problem which has led to a demand +deflation issue, you have foreign investment and confidence running away, and you have a government that is going out of its way to downplay and censor incidents and data that have big impacts on the economy.
Keep in mind, I'm not sure exactly what the total global economic picture looks like if my theory about China's economy unraveling is correct. Long term—that would probably be good for returning a lot of jobs and manufacturing back here in the states. It would also motivate non Chinese companies to move their operations and supply chains to places like Mexico, Vietnam, or India. I do think that it's not a bad idea to look over your portfolios and see which companies that you might own that have a large presence or dependence on China. Starbucks and Tesla could be a couple of examples of stocks to be weary of. I personally own both of them—but I've slowly trimmed my position on them over the past few weeks. In any case—this is just my opinion—but take it for what it's worth.
Over the past many weeks—generally on the nights when I battle insomnia—I’ve been spending some time researching the economic situation in China. Keep in mind that I do have vendors, acquaintances, and contacts that are/were in China or still have a lot of connections in China. The notion or idea that China manipulates or financially engineers its numbers is widely accepted—but I’m very much of the belief that the Chinese economy is unraveling very quickly.
The real estate market over there (which basically represents a large portion of their economy) is effectively a collapsing Ponzi scheme. Virtually every country in the world had an economic spike when they reopened things after Covid—but China’s re-opening was greeted with deflation. The youth unemployment rate which China claims is 21.7% is massively high—but many people think the actual number is closer to 40%. The number is bound to grow with the biblical flooding that hit lots of China over the past few weeks. The government is trying to censor and downplay the floods by saying something like 29 or 39 people died, but most people close to the situation think the actual death toll is in the tens of thousands. Factories were closing before the floods, and certainly many more of them will be extinct after the floods. In the past day—China surprisingly lowered interest rates, but they also announced that they will no longer be reporting the youth unemployment rates. Just like they are trying to censor the flood disaster, just like they tried to downplay Covid when it first broke out—there seems to be a situation where China's actions are not lining up with their cadence. I personally find this worrisome.
My contacts in China tell me that stores in major economic hubs in China are closing all of the time. A vendor/friend of mine is in Shanghai and is in an area where well paid foreigners tend to rent/be located—and he said that the area is becoming a ghost town. He also said that rents have massively fallen in that area because there are soo many vacancies. You effectively have an economy where they have a massive real estate problem, a significant unemployment problem which has led to a demand +deflation issue, you have foreign investment and confidence running away, and you have a government that is going out of its way to downplay and censor incidents and data that have big impacts on the economy.
Keep in mind, I'm not sure exactly what the total global economic picture looks like if my theory about China's economy unraveling is correct. Long term—that would probably be good for returning a lot of jobs and manufacturing back here in the states. It would also motivate non Chinese companies to move their operations and supply chains to places like Mexico, Vietnam, or India. I do think that it's not a bad idea to look over your portfolios and see which companies that you might own that have a large presence or dependence on China. Starbucks and Tesla could be a couple of examples of stocks to be weary of. I personally own both of them—but I've slowly trimmed my position on them over the past few weeks. In any case—this is just my opinion—but take it for what it's worth.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Good stuff. I recently moved a lot of my Emerging Markets money, which still isn't that much, over to the EMXC ETF to get rid of some China exposure.
Sand
Footballguy
It's the "crush Sand trade". It's still full on. In fact last weekend Mr. Market got Mother Nature involved and had her spike my house with lightning, taking about 5k of electronics out.
Capella
Footballguy
Yes it is. I’ve stopped gambling on these nonsense stocks I was having fun with and am just riding out the stuff I like. Long grind but also successful.
jwb
Footballguy
Me too - I've given up on trying to find winning stocks. I was never a huge on it, but the bottom 10-20% of my portfolio was always these kinds of things. I noticed two things with them: They are notoriously hard to pick, and even when they hit, they become emotionally hard to sell, and when the inevitable downturn happens, you tend to ride them down (at least I do... yea, I should have sold CYDY and ran, but I didn't...)
For me, indexes are much much better.
Willy
Footballguy
For a long time now Peter Zeihan has been saying that China is toast due to a ton of bad policies and poor leadership. He makes a lot of sense when you watch his youtube channel <-- latest video linked here. I'm not really sure what to do with that information either, but I agree that something is happening here and maybe there are opportunities if you can figure it out.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
Still have way too much of this as a hedge at about $135 per share.
Sand
Footballguy
I'm still holding back on long bonds. With inflation as sticky as it is (govt. spending is very high and likely to continue for another 5 years) I expect some flattening of the yield curve with the long end coming up, so more pain that way.
Right now sticking with using monies to buy medium term CDs and investment grade corporate bonds. I plan to let them all mature and collect the 5.5-6.5%.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
It does suck to suck
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Kinda where I’m at. I use bonds to stabilize my portfolio. TLT has done the opposite of that. With an easy safe 5.5% available, I don’t see the point in being risky with bonds.
I too am buying a lot of short duration treasury bills at 5.40%. No question that is a solid safe play. I am just making a bet that we are close to the end of pain on long term rates as I see them falling quite a bit over the next few years. I see better returns in bonds than stocks in the next year.
I’ve been watching TLT, still haven’t pulled the trigger. I think it languishes until the fall. I’d rather buy a touch late than waste three months while it goes sideways. But I like the play.
Only problem with that is September is worse.
Bogart
Footballguy
DWAC dropped 12% (15.04) today after the company postponed a shareholders meeting today that was suppose to inform the shareholders if they received the 65% vote needed to extend the SPAC another year. Word is they aren't close to the 65%. It took them 3 months of reaching out to shareholders to get the vote last time. Now they have less than three weeks to make it happen. Liquidation is looking more and more possible with each blunder.
Capella
Footballguy
Is this the trump/truth social stock?
Bogart
Footballguy
Yeah. Trying not to say much to keep things from getting political, but I have become obsessed with watching this train wreck. Reading reddit posts, and posts and groups inside Truth Social, many many Trump supporters who bought in at $100-175 a share are about to lose everything, but still confident the stock is going to hit $5000 a share and they are all going to "own the shorts" and "go to the moon".
Capella
Footballguy
Sounds familiar. Is this on Wall Street bets or another sub? I too love train wrecks.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Oh man. I forgot your thread over there. You should come over to the discord and share some of this.
Bogart
Footballguy
WSB has some good posts. The infighting with Trump supporters internally and with trolls has pretty much ruined r/DWAC, r/DWAC_Stock, r/DWAC_Research. r/TRUTHSocialWatch and r/TRUTHSocialWatch2 are pretty good places to see it go down.
I spend a lot of time ironically on Truth Social now. They have groups like DWAC and DWAC_TMTG because they can't all get along. They think I am one of them (I actually bought 10 shares so I wouldn't lie about being a shareholder) and I try and spread some common sense about how this thing could/is going down. Like they all think the brokers are out to F them, because they are offering them tender of $10 a share to get out. I post how that is part of the SPAC agreement with the shareholders and the brokers are just following orders. But everything is a conspiracy theory and the deep state and naked shorts are out to F them.
Have to admit, Discord makes me feel like an old man. A lot going on. I have it on my home laptop and will try and drop some stuff in there this weekend.
My contractor said it was discord but I told him it was datcord.
I just don’t think I can do a like on that.
Sand
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Why? What was your entry price on Datcord?
Probably 25% more than it should have been.
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
There's a Discord?
NajehHejan
Footballguy
great video - thanks for sharing
Desert_Power
Footballguy
What to do with NVDA ahead of earnings? Like with a gimpy RB on Sunday morning, I know I will pick wrong anyways.
Sand
Footballguy
Hold. Expectations are so lofty there is no telling what happens here.
McBokonon
Footballguy
There’s one guy in my fintwit Twitterverse that’s been banging this drum since October or so and hasn’t relented. He’s purposefully annoying and sort of troll-ish but he does share good info amidst all that.
@leadlagreport
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
What are we referring to as the "credit issue"? The news about $1T and delinquency rates rising? While potentially concerning, look at it in the big picture.
If you look at US consumer debt as a percentage of GDP, we're right in the same range we've been in since 2013, and way below where we were from 2004-2012 or so. (you can see the data and play with timeframes here)
Delinquencies are indeed going up, and how quickly it's spiked is concerning. But it's still at relatively low rates historically, lower than at anytime from 1992-late 2012. Here's another look that has different numbers, but still shows we are at relatively low rates.
It sure looks to me like people got to used to spending, spending, spending with all of the stimmies and record low rates, and now are at the point where behavior will have to change (we always learn and adapt too slowly). But with employment still so strong, I'd be surprised if that doesn't level out a bit in the coming quarters.
Or are you guys talking about something else?
If you look at US consumer debt as a percentage of GDP, we're right in the same range we've been in since 2013, and way below where we were from 2004-2012 or so. (you can see the data and play with timeframes here)
Delinquencies are indeed going up, and how quickly it's spiked is concerning. But it's still at relatively low rates historically, lower than at anytime from 1992-late 2012. Here's another look that has different numbers, but still shows we are at relatively low rates.
It sure looks to me like people got to used to spending, spending, spending with all of the stimmies and record low rates, and now are at the point where behavior will have to change (we always learn and adapt too slowly). But with employment still so strong, I'd be surprised if that doesn't level out a bit in the coming quarters.
Or are you guys talking about something else?
Sand
Footballguy
At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.
Always start your studs.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
NVDA go BOOM
culdeus
Footballguy
Keep in mind there's more than just the US on this planet. As credit becomes more constrained here it impacts dollar/X currency elsewhere, and if the dollar ratios get off now with a credit crunch bad bad **** can happen.
I would be very worried about delinquent credit, and the cost of credit. The cost of a car payment alone in the US has the potential to death spiral the autos, and as mentioned earlier the lack of mortage activity generates lower fees for every one of the blood suckers in those industries.
Capella
Footballguy
Baby we are goin up
