With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.
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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I think the concern is the company's ability to maintain possession of said tin and continue operations with the rebels, aided by Rwanda, seizing DRC cities and raping/murdering people.I guess we don't need tin anymore......
Worm
slimy ninja
I agree with your wife.
I have moved to an extremely overweight position in BND for now.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
just curious why BND? If in Vanguard wouldn't leaving it in the settlement fund making 4ish % be the way to go? Do you expect BND to really pick up?
Worm
slimy ninja
Sorry, doing too many things at once. I typed BND but meant SGOV. Currently at 4.59%.
I did something similar last week, had some outsized positions like AMZN, APPL, NVDA and some others and trimmed them back. Sold 2/3rds of my PLTR before the dip (but it was a small position anyway.) Seeing all the frothy love out there and some articles on overpriced metrics has me jittery. I’m still majority invested but a lot more dry powder now
General Malaise
Footballguy
I think the concern is the company's ability to maintain possession of said tin and continue operations with the rebels, aided by Rwanda, seizing DRC cities and raping/murdering people.I guess we don't need tin anymore......
Yeah, this. The rebels have moved south now. Amazing that the DRC military just.....left. Not only that, they changed into civilian clothes and looted everything they could before fleeing. Neat army you got there.
Still expect to see the dividend payment, which is now yielding something ridiculous like 17%, though the reason why is un-good.
The rebels haven't touched the tin operations, but the company has evacuated its staff out of caution. These rebels aren't after tin, though. Gold, silver, women, power, control.....the Rwandan government might actually represent an uptick in political stability for companies that operate over there, but that's like saying Shuke's in better shape than I am.
This sucks. No doubt about it. The business is fine, the profits are real, the tin is the best grade in the world, tin prices hit a four month peak, demand remains strong and China continues to gobble up supply.
Maybe I need to stick to stocks that are based in friendlier jurisdictions, like Beirut, Syria or Chad.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
dancingbones
Footballguy
I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.
Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I have 15 years until retirement. That is enough time to recover from a drop but it seems more likely than not that a large global shift of some type is coming.
Need to move some money to cash also, just need to figure out what percent.
Need to move some money to cash also, just need to figure out what percent.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
In Rwanda, first you get the tin, then you get the power, then you get the women.I think the concern is the company's ability to maintain possession of said tin and continue operations with the rebels, aided by Rwanda, seizing DRC cities and raping/murdering people.I guess we don't need tin anymore......
Yeah, this. The rebels have moved south now. Amazing that the DRC military just.....left. Not only that, they changed into civilian clothes and looted everything they could before fleeing. Neat army you got there.
Still expect to see the dividend payment, which is now yielding something ridiculous like 17%, though the reason why is un-good.
The rebels haven't touched the tin operations, but the company has evacuated its staff out of caution. These rebels aren't after tin, though. Gold, silver, women, power, control.....the Rwandan government might actually represent an uptick in political stability for companies that operate over there, but that's like saying Shuke's in better shape than I am.
This sucks. No doubt about it. The business is fine, the profits are real, the tin is the best grade in the world, tin prices hit a four month peak, demand remains strong and China continues to gobble up supply.
Maybe I need to stick to stocks that are based in friendlier jurisdictions, like Beirut, Syria or Chad.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
I'm trying to remember if I've seen Rwanda represented in the Miss Universe Pageant.In Rwanda, first you get the tin, then you get the power, then you get the women.I think the concern is the company's ability to maintain possession of said tin and continue operations with the rebels, aided by Rwanda, seizing DRC cities and raping/murdering people.I guess we don't need tin anymore......
Yeah, this. The rebels have moved south now. Amazing that the DRC military just.....left. Not only that, they changed into civilian clothes and looted everything they could before fleeing. Neat army you got there.
Still expect to see the dividend payment, which is now yielding something ridiculous like 17%, though the reason why is un-good.
The rebels haven't touched the tin operations, but the company has evacuated its staff out of caution. These rebels aren't after tin, though. Gold, silver, women, power, control.....the Rwandan government might actually represent an uptick in political stability for companies that operate over there, but that's like saying Shuke's in better shape than I am.
This sucks. No doubt about it. The business is fine, the profits are real, the tin is the best grade in the world, tin prices hit a four month peak, demand remains strong and China continues to gobble up supply.
Maybe I need to stick to stocks that are based in friendlier jurisdictions, like Beirut, Syria or Chad.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
Not much difference vs GBIL, eh?
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'm trying to remember if I've seen Rwanda represented in the Miss Universe Pageant.In Rwanda, first you get the tin, then you get the power, then you get the women.I think the concern is the company's ability to maintain possession of said tin and continue operations with the rebels, aided by Rwanda, seizing DRC cities and raping/murdering people.I guess we don't need tin anymore......
Yeah, this. The rebels have moved south now. Amazing that the DRC military just.....left. Not only that, they changed into civilian clothes and looted everything they could before fleeing. Neat army you got there.
Still expect to see the dividend payment, which is now yielding something ridiculous like 17%, though the reason why is un-good.
The rebels haven't touched the tin operations, but the company has evacuated its staff out of caution. These rebels aren't after tin, though. Gold, silver, women, power, control.....the Rwandan government might actually represent an uptick in political stability for companies that operate over there, but that's like saying Shuke's in better shape than I am.
This sucks. No doubt about it. The business is fine, the profits are real, the tin is the best grade in the world, tin prices hit a four month peak, demand remains strong and China continues to gobble up supply.
Maybe I need to stick to stocks that are based in friendlier jurisdictions, like Beirut, Syria or Chad.
Well, hello there, rabbit hole......
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Oh, hello MELI, you sexy wench
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Woah - who told you to put on the balm? I must have missed that post - we don’t sell UAMY around these here parts!
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I bought CELH a month ago because I felt it was oversold. Was hoping to get a quick 20% pop and sell. It never moved north, just south, ended up losing around 8% in value. I was concerned it’d get slaughtered at earnings, so I sold. After hours up 35%. Can’t win em all!
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
That is one heck of a cool name for a defense company.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
What happened for KTOS to go from @ $500 to $1500? Only to fall to 5 bucks? And yeah that was the low but it sat in the teens for around 20 years.
What's the story there?
identikit
Footballguy
Reverse split(s)?
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I've been adding bits of TTD over the past week, but starting to worry it's a falling knife...
Sold, sold, sold at the opening bell . I thought to myself: "self, in one year, what will I have wished I had done on 2/21/25?" and I answered myself "I wish I had moved even more into that sweet money market that is paying 4.3% and gotten the heck out of an overpriced market before _____ hit the fan." You're welcome, future me. (Disclosure: allocation now about 50% equities, 20% bonds, 30% cash, a good dozen years until retirement.)
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
And if the market is up 10% a year from now, what do you do then?
Not questioning your decision in any way, seems incredibly reasonable to me. I’m always just curious how people who are timing the market think about the plan to get back in. You have to be right twice. To come out ahead of just staying the course.
I know people that got out in 2022, and they’re still sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the right time to get back in as the market ran away from them.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
yes, was curious what people seem to feel? Are you/we expecting a 10% correction? 20, 30, 40%? i'm still sitting at a 90/10 allocation with 4 more years to work. I think i'll start to taper down in a couple years, but i remember reading a couple posters here being in cash and missing big windows of gains. again, just curious.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah I think I'm out on this one. Dipped my toes in, but getting punched in the knees is no fun.
Time to buy more Tungsten!
General Malaise
Footballguy
Just went to a 25% cash position. Something feels weird here.
Honestly, I am expecting a World War.
I still have 50% in equities so if the market runs and I miss out on a 10% gain or whatever on the balance, then I'm going be fine living with that. I'll sit on that pile of cash so long as I'm getting north of 4% risk-free. When that dries up and if I still want to eschew equities, I'd buy a house with that money and enjoy positive cash flow.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
What's the deal with MLGO?
Capella
Footballguy
wait what
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Months ago I saw a good article that talked about how WW2 actually started many years prior with a run up of regional conflicts and the path we are currently on looks similar to that one
Can’t find it now though
Edit: found a similar one
Opinion Piece
According to this opinion, the main thing preventing WW3 is “stability American power and US alliances still provide”
Last edited:
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Civil, World, same difference
The_Man
Footballguy
I moved about 50% to a Money Market a couple of days before the first so-called Tariffs were supposed to hit (S&P was at 6068). Short-term, I might put some back in after a Budget Deal is struck between the House and Senate but I expect a lot of turmoil and foolishness before that eventually happens. Longer-term, I am probably going to wait until much closer to the mid-term elections to see if they actually take place as scheduled.
Still making my monthly contributions into an S&P Index Fund though might change it to an S&P equal weight index fund. If I miss out on some gains with the 50% I've parked, I can live with it way more than how I'll feel watching things go off the rails (like I think they will) and having done nothing about it
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I was already 5-10% cash and moved that to about 30% today, maybe a little more even.
Unfortunately a lot of my stuff was extended tech so even at 4% a HYSA won't get back just what I lost in the last 2-3 days even after an entire year, but I have the same squirly feelings as everyone else and I've been wanting to get more defensive for a while.
As with 2021, the looming taxes to move my portfolio in that direction made me hesitate a little bit too long. I still hate that moving from an aggressive stock to a defensive stock or yield position is a taxable event. I wish we weren't taxed until withdrawal which is when the money is actually income that we can spend.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So all of you seem to be moving some to cash.
So should I be greedy with your fear???? Or does this forum not represent normal folks out there, lol
So should I be greedy with your fear???? Or does this forum not represent normal folks out there, lol
Wooderson
Fight The Power
I have never moved to a defensive stock or yield position but it has crossed my mind. So you're telling me if I move my money from an aggressive growth portfolio to a money market account I will have to pay tax? Even though I am not receiving any money?
Capella
Footballguy
Yea. I don’t think the world has an appetite for that right now but Iord knows I’ve been wrong before. Truly hope not.Months ago I saw a good article that talked about how WW2 actually started many years prior with a run up of regional conflicts and the path we are currently on looks similar to that one
Can’t find it now though
Edit: found a similar one
Opinion Piece
According to this opinion, the main thing preventing WW3 is “stability American power and US alliances still provide”
Wooderson
Fight The Power
The_Man
Footballguy
That's the question, isn't it? I think the problem is we're in an unprecedented environment where literally anything could get announced at 6 pm tonight - from invocation of the gold standard, to cancellation of all outstanding US debt, to a nationwide price freeze - and we'd have to wait until Monday morning to see what happens or if what was announced on Friday is still even operative 48 hours later
I have been very bullish for the last 20+ years, through the Global Economic Meltdown and Covid, but my faith in the underpinnings of the supremacy of US markets is less secure than it was during any of those moments
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yea. I don’t think the world has an appetite for that right now but Iord knows I’ve been wrong before. Truly hope not.Months ago I saw a good article that talked about how WW2 actually started many years prior with a run up of regional conflicts and the path we are currently on looks similar to that one
Can’t find it now though
Edit: found a similar one
Opinion Piece
According to this opinion, the main thing preventing WW3 is “stability American power and US alliances still provide”
There is war all around us, not sure why we're immune. Congo, Israel, Ukraine.....sides are being taken and receipts are being kept. This is how world wars start.
Source, history.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh, and we have Covid 2.0 coming to a theater near us.
You have a link to get me up to speed, I've seen nothing about this on CNN.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/new-coronavirus-bat-chinese-lab-2034232
We're all screwed, man. Game over. Been nice knowing some of you.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yes. As soon as you sell the stock, you owe tax on the gains.
Only if you report it or the IRS employees/computers figures it out.
Serious answer, you can wait until 2026 to pay the tax. Technically it's on realized gains at the end of the year offset by any realized losses.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
That assumes it's in a taxable account.
