Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

I can’t hold NVDA through earnings. Market has been very fickle lately. I see upside 5% max but downside 20-30%. I need to sleep well at night. I’m out with my measly 10% gain.

30% down would be awesome. Don’t think we’ll get that lucky.

 

[NajehHejan]

Just to clarify - I don't see NVDA missing on the top or bottom lines - they'll likely smash on both - but for some reason, the way this market has been, I can see it plummet 20-30% for either no good reason (sell the news) or for some made up reason like "analysts didn't like the carpet color they picked for the 2028 board room refresh"

 

[NajehHejan]

Bought more UWMC at 6.07. Not sure why it is down 7-8%. Good quarter considering all the headwinds in the mortgage industry.

 

[BassNBrew]

Fidelity is down for me.

 

[pecorino]

You could’ve just sold an NVDA covered call for Friday, hedge both sides.

 

[BassNBrew]

Bought more UWMC at 6.07. Not sure why it is down 7-8%. Good quarter considering all the headwinds in the mortgage industry.

And another dime dividend. 6-7% return.

 

[Capella]

I can’t hold NVDA through earnings. Market has been very fickle lately. I see upside 5% max but downside 20-30%. I need to sleep well at night. I’m out with my measly 10% gain.

It’s pure gambling. In for 30 more shares lol.

 

[Todem]

I think I will add some CAKE today. Looks like they approve of cream. https://x.com/Cheesecake/status/1086307269715918850

PE of 17, forward PE 15. Seems like it's lagging it's peers.

****ty product…..really bad quality these days.

 

[Sand]

Bought more UWMC at 6.07. Not sure why it is down 7-8%. Good quarter considering all the headwinds in the mortgage industry.

Market was evidently expecting much more than delivered. Bought a bit more.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

You could’ve just sold an NVDA covered call for Friday, hedge both sides.

Just did this. Strike price of $140. If they get called they get called.

 

[BassNBrew]

I think I will add some CAKE today. Looks like they approve of cream. https://x.com/Cheesecake/status/1086307269715918850

PE of 17, forward PE 15. Seems like it's lagging it's peers.

****ty product…..really bad quality these days.

Healthy Food for a Happy World | Flower Child

At Flower Child, we make every last bite from scratch, using fresh ingredients from close to home. Healthy food that takes you to a happy place.

www.iamaflowerchild.com

This could be big.

Also McDonalds has a crappy product and it's PE is around 25.

 

[BassNBrew]

Bought more UWMC at 6.07. Not sure why it is down 7-8%. Good quarter considering all the headwinds in the mortgage industry.

Market was evidently expecting much more than delivered. Bought a bit more.

Same here. I should have a seat next to Matt at the next board meeting.

 

[Todem]

I think I will add some CAKE today. Looks like they approve of cream. https://x.com/Cheesecake/status/1086307269715918850

PE of 17, forward PE 15. Seems like it's lagging it's peers.

****ty product…..really bad quality these days.

Healthy Food for a Happy World | Flower Child

At Flower Child, we make every last bite from scratch, using fresh ingredients from close to home. Healthy food that takes you to a happy place.

www.iamaflowerchild.com

This could be big.

Also McDonalds has a crappy product and it's PE is around 25.

Their model is doninant though andbthey have incredible real edtate assets.

No comparison actually.

I am not a big restaurant stock guy…..but have made some great trades in them.

Cake I bought for $8 back in 2008 and sold at $35

BLMN we remeber that as well as Texas Roadhouse.

But I don’t like a lot of them for long term holds.

MCD is the only one I have had…..forever.

 

[BassNBrew]

I think I will add some CAKE today. Looks like they approve of cream. https://x.com/Cheesecake/status/1086307269715918850

PE of 17, forward PE 15. Seems like it's lagging it's peers.

****ty product…..really bad quality these days.

Healthy Food for a Happy World | Flower Child

At Flower Child, we make every last bite from scratch, using fresh ingredients from close to home. Healthy food that takes you to a happy place.

www.iamaflowerchild.com

This could be big.

Also McDonalds has a crappy product and it's PE is around 25.

Their model is doninant though andbthey have incredible real edtate assets.

No comparison actually.

I am not a big restaurant stock guy…..but have made some great trades in them.

Cake I bought for $8 back in 2008 and sold at $35

BLMN we remeber that as well as Texas Roadhouse.

But I don’t like a lot of them for long term holds.

MCD is the only one I have had…..forever.

Personally not a fan of real estate investments for businesses. Regardless, I betting on Flower Child creating a 30% buzz by May next year.

 

[Stoneworker]

Int'l killing the U.S. markets YTD

IVLU +10.33%, SEC yield = 3.41%

IDEV +8.17%, SEC yield = 2.55%

 

[Dr_Zaius]

I am not a big restaurant stock guy…..but have made some great trades in them.

Cake I bought for $8 back in 2008 and sold at $35

BLMN we remeber that as well as Texas Roadhouse.

But I don’t like a lot of them for long term holds.

MCD is the only one I have had…..forever.

Any thoughts on YUM? I've been in it forever and it's been good to me, but its best days may be behind it.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Int'l killing the U.S. markets YTD

IVLU +10.33%, SEC yield = 3.41%

IDEV +8.17%, SEC yield = 2.55%

I use AVDV (developed) and AVES (emerging) for international exposure, both are value-based int'l funds as I look to maximize the diversification from the US LCB/LCG that make up much of my portfolio. It's not a big allocation, a little over 10% in my traditional IRAs. For years I had a higher allocation to int'l, closer to 20%, and obviously that was a drag on performance. I decided a couple of years ago to lower, but not eliminate, that to get closer to 10%. Am I underweight now? Maybe, but comfortable with where I'm at for now.

 

[General Malaise]

Bitcoin taking it on the chin, nose and throat.....I'm sure it's nothing.

 

[Buckna]

Been adding some stuff back today that I trimmed back before the 19th: AMZN, CEG, GOOGL, META, PLTR, UWMC. Even some RIVN as a more speculative play. Probably means a huge crash tomorrow…

 

[General Malaise]

I ain't touching chit except maybe the sell button.

 

[Stoneworker]

Int'l killing the U.S. markets YTD

IVLU +10.33%, SEC yield = 3.41%

IDEV +8.17%, SEC yield = 2.55%

I use AVDV (developed) and AVES (emerging) for international exposure, both are value-based int'l funds as I look to maximize the diversification from the US LCB/LCG that make up much of my portfolio. It's not a big allocation, a little over 10% in my traditional IRAs. For years I had a higher allocation to int'l, closer to 20%, and obviously that was a drag on performance. I decided a couple of years ago to lower, but not eliminate, that to get closer to 10%. Am I underweight now? Maybe, but comfortable with where I'm at for now.

Yep. I did almost the exact same thing for a family member. Cut back from 20% to 10% Int'l at the end of 2024. Knew it was going to bounce back at some point. No buyer's remorse at all, however, since IMO it's just a temporary rotation and once Int'l P/E ratios elevate with this latest bump then the rally will end. Long-term happy w/ only 10% exposure since economic growth a huge challenge outside the U.S.

 

[BassNBrew]

Int'l killing the U.S. markets YTD

IVLU +10.33%, SEC yield = 3.41%

IDEV +8.17%, SEC yield = 2.55%

I use AVDV (developed) and AVES (emerging) for international exposure, both are value-based int'l funds as I look to maximize the diversification from the US LCB/LCG that make up much of my portfolio. It's not a big allocation, a little over 10% in my traditional IRAs. For years I had a higher allocation to int'l, closer to 20%, and obviously that was a drag on performance. I decided a couple of years ago to lower, but not eliminate, that to get closer to 10%. Am I underweight now? Maybe, but comfortable with where I'm at for now.

Overweight IMO. The only place i would trust the books is Europe and they only work 6 weeks a year.

 

[fruity pebbles]

CNBC is so funny. They literally spin from market at all time highs parties, and it’s going to continue forever, to blood in the streets we’re all dead at the drop of a hat.

 

[General Malaise]

CNBC is so funny. They literally spin from market at all time highs parties, and it’s going to continue forever, to blood in the streets we’re all dead at the drop of a hat.

I mean....it IS a TV show.

 

[ghostguy123]

CNBC is so funny. They literally spin from market at all time highs parties, and it’s going to continue forever, to blood in the streets we’re all dead at the drop of a hat.

I wonder how their trading actions compare to their on screen actions......

 

[FreeBaGeL]

CNBC is so funny. They literally spin from market at all time highs parties, and it’s going to continue forever, to blood in the streets we’re all dead at the drop of a hat.

I wonder how their trading actions compare to their on screen actions......

To their credit they disclose their trades and portfolios very often.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Well hello, NRG!

 

[Todem]

I think I will add some CAKE today. Looks like they approve of cream. https://x.com/Cheesecake/status/1086307269715918850

PE of 17, forward PE 15. Seems like it's lagging it's peers.

****ty product…..really bad quality these days.

Healthy Food for a Happy World | Flower Child

At Flower Child, we make every last bite from scratch, using fresh ingredients from close to home. Healthy food that takes you to a happy place.

www.iamaflowerchild.com

This could be big.

Also McDonalds has a crappy product and it's PE is around 25.

Their model is doninant though andbthey have incredible real edtate assets.

No comparison actually.

I am not a big restaurant stock guy…..but have made some great trades in them.

Cake I bought for $8 back in 2008 and sold at $35

BLMN we remeber that as well as Texas Roadhouse.

But I don’t like a lot of them for long term holds.

MCD is the only one I have had…..forever.

Personally not a fan of real estate investments for businesses. Regardless, I betting on Flower Child creating a 30% buzz by May next year.

The best assets in the world in my opinion and it has been proven over time are equities and real estate.

Mcdonalds owns a ton of their locations real estate. That is the real asset of that company.

 

[Todem]

CNBC is so funny. They literally spin from market at all time highs parties, and it’s going to continue forever, to blood in the streets we’re all dead at the drop of a hat.

I mean....it IS a TV show.

Business pornography.

 

[Todem]

I am not a big restaurant stock guy…..but have made some great trades in them.

Cake I bought for $8 back in 2008 and sold at $35

BLMN we remeber that as well as Texas Roadhouse.

But I don’t like a lot of them for long term holds.

MCD is the only one I have had…..forever.

Any thoughts on YUM? I've been in it forever and it's been good to me, but its best days may be behind it.

We have been out of Yum for years now. It was a fantastic investment. But yes that story for me ended several years ago.

 

[Todem]

CNBC is so funny. They literally spin from market at all time highs parties, and it’s going to continue forever, to blood in the streets we’re all dead at the drop of a hat.

Par for the course….we know this.

“Markets in Turmoil” graphic is one of the best buy signals in the history of man…..and oh Kramer when he throws in the towel on a stock.

Sure fire tells.

 

[SFBayDuck]

“Markets in Turmoil” graphic is one of the best buy signals in the history of man

Yup, it would be hard to find a better strategy.

 

[ghostguy123]

Just for fun I watch Nvidia for a few minutes. Went from down 3% to up 4% to down 3% to back up a couple % in like 3 minutes.

 

[Capella]

Just for fun I watch Nvidia for a few minutes. Went from down 3% to up 4% to down 3% to back up a couple % in like 3 minutes.

CNBC: Good news! Beat all estimates! Bad news! There is no bad news but it’s down 4%!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

How anti-climatic.

 

[Capella]

Yes didn’t expect it to be this calm either way. Maybe that’s a good thing?

 

[fruity pebbles]

How anti-climatic.

Yup. Beat but didn’t kill it. Good guidance but nothing groundbreaking. Stock basically flat.

 

[Todem]

How anti-climatic.

Yup. Beat but didn’t kill it. Good guidance but nothing groundbreaking. Stock basically flat.

Yeah 82% growth year over year and it’s flat….this is how you know the pigs are gonna be slaughtered soon…….

 

[ghostguy123]

How anti-climatic.

Yup. Beat but didn’t kill it. Good guidance but nothing groundbreaking. Stock basically flat.

Yeah 82% growth year over year and it’s flat….this is how you know the pigs are gonna be slaughtered soon…….

I guess I have to ask, what do you mean by that?? lol

 

[NajehHejan]

How anti-climatic.

Yup. Beat but didn’t kill it. Good guidance but nothing groundbreaking. Stock basically flat.

Yeah 82% growth year over year and it’s flat….this is how you know the pigs are gonna be slaughtered soon…….

Agreed. At around 3:30 I was nervous that I made the wrong call by selling, but them being flat with that report gives me confidence that I can get back in at least 10% lower soon. I’m so glad they didn’t tank and rupture the market with them.

 

[Sand]

“Markets in Turmoil” graphic is one of the best buy signals in the history of man

Yup, it would be hard to find a better strategy.

Damn.

 

[SFBayDuck]

“Markets in Turmoil” graphic is one of the best buy signals in the history of man

Yup, it would be hard to find a better strategy.

Damn.

To be fair most of that graphic is from 2020, where they ran that pretty much every day from Feb through June. And it ends in 2022. But they do seem to be pretty good at calling market bottoms back to 2010.

 

[BassNBrew]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

Found what I was looking for... https://www.amsria.com/videos/v/mar... you eliminate the,participate in the 10 best.

Market Volatility: 10 Best Days vs 10 Worst Days​

An interesting thing in our industry, years ago the mutual funds family used to bring out this report where they would show you that the 10 best days of the year were the contributing factor to what your returns would be. Over the last 85 years the S&P 500 in this country has averaged around 10 ½% but this study would show you that if you missed the 10 best trading days each year, that return went to zero. The average return if you missed the 10 best days each year was 0% on average per year. Well that's interesting but if you think about how the market works, it doesn't necessarily have an equal balance to the good days and the bad days. The market kind of goes up unceremoniously without fanfare, without headlines, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, and then boom we get a bad headline and it drops pretty dramatically. The market doesn't generally buy emotionally. It doesn't panic buy. The market panic sells. So what happens is the market tends to go up and then it tends to drop. And when you see these big days that we have multiple hundred point drops in the market you may look back and say, wow, we've only given up what we earned in the last two or three weeks. But it sure doesn't seem that way. So if you look at the flip side of that coin and you understand that the market goes up slowly and it drops quickly, what would the flip side of that coin be if we said we're not looking at the 10 best days each year, we're looking at the 10 worst days each year. Well, if you eliminate the 10 worst days each year than your average annual return goes up to about 30% per year for the last 85 years. So, it's almost more important to miss those worst 10 days than it is to participate in the 10 best. The other interesting thing in this study was that the correlation between the 10 best days and the 10 worst. What happens a lot of the time is that after you have a big drop in the market, the market might sell off 200 points and the next day it comes back 150, you're still not back to where you were two days ago. But at the end of the day when it adds up every individual day throughout the year you'll see that 150 point increase day and say that's one of the 10 best days of the year. So, what happens is it gets blended together with the correlation between the 10 worst and the 10 best. Interesting follow up on the study, if you avoid both the 10 best and the 10 worst, the average annual return on the stock market in this country for the last 85 years is about 20% per year. Now I'm not saying that we're going to be able to provide you with 20% returns per year, certainly not. What I'm saying is, it's a very important distinction that there are times that you want to be in the market but there are times that you want to be out of the market.

So if this is accurate, it's more important to miss the bad days then be invested during the good days.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

Found what I was looking for... https://www.amsria.com/videos/v/market-volatility-10-best-days-vs-10-worst-days#:~:text=Well, if you eliminate the,participate in the 10 best.

Market Volatility: 10 Best Days vs 10 Worst Days​

An interesting thing in our industry, years ago the mutual funds family used to bring out this report where they would show you that the 10 best days of the year were the contributing factor to what your returns would be. Over the last 85 years the S&P 500 in this country has averaged around 10 ½% but this study would show you that if you missed the 10 best trading days each year, that return went to zero. The average return if you missed the 10 best days each year was 0% on average per year. Well that's interesting but if you think about how the market works, it doesn't necessarily have an equal balance to the good days and the bad days. The market kind of goes up unceremoniously without fanfare, without headlines, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, and then boom we get a bad headline and it drops pretty dramatically. The market doesn't generally buy emotionally. It doesn't panic buy. The market panic sells. So what happens is the market tends to go up and then it tends to drop. And when you see these big days that we have multiple hundred point drops in the market you may look back and say, wow, we've only given up what we earned in the last two or three weeks. But it sure doesn't seem that way. So if you look at the flip side of that coin and you understand that the market goes up slowly and it drops quickly, what would the flip side of that coin be if we said we're not looking at the 10 best days each year, we're looking at the 10 worst days each year. Well, if you eliminate the 10 worst days each year than your average annual return goes up to about 30% per year for the last 85 years. So, it's almost more important to miss those worst 10 days than it is to participate in the 10 best. The other interesting thing in this study was that the correlation between the 10 best days and the 10 worst. What happens a lot of the time is that after you have a big drop in the market, the market might sell off 200 points and the next day it comes back 150, you're still not back to where you were two days ago. But at the end of the day when it adds up every individual day throughout the year you'll see that 150 point increase day and say that's one of the 10 best days of the year. So, what happens is it gets blended together with the correlation between the 10 worst and the 10 best. Interesting follow up on the study, if you avoid both the 10 best and the 10 worst, the average annual return on the stock market in this country for the last 85 years is about 20% per year. Now I'm not saying that we're going to be able to provide you with 20% returns per year, certainly not. What I'm saying is, it's a very important distinction that there are times that you want to be in the market but there are times that you want to be out of the market.

So if this is accurate, it's more important to miss the bad days then be invested during the good days.

Good data, but what do we do with that? Please let me know when you find a way to identify the worst days ahead of time.

While you’re at it, let me know the 10-20 stocks that will be responsible for most of the market’s gains the next 10-20 years as has been the case for decades now. Then we’ll be cooking with gas.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

Found what I was looking for... https://www.amsria.com/videos/v/market-volatility-10-best-days-vs-10-worst-days#:~:text=Well, if you eliminate the,participate in the 10 best.

Market Volatility: 10 Best Days vs 10 Worst Days​

An interesting thing in our industry, years ago the mutual funds family used to bring out this report where they would show you that the 10 best days of the year were the contributing factor to what your returns would be. Over the last 85 years the S&P 500 in this country has averaged around 10 ½% but this study would show you that if you missed the 10 best trading days each year, that return went to zero. The average return if you missed the 10 best days each year was 0% on average per year. Well that's interesting but if you think about how the market works, it doesn't necessarily have an equal balance to the good days and the bad days. The market kind of goes up unceremoniously without fanfare, without headlines, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, and then boom we get a bad headline and it drops pretty dramatically. The market doesn't generally buy emotionally. It doesn't panic buy. The market panic sells. So what happens is the market tends to go up and then it tends to drop. And when you see these big days that we have multiple hundred point drops in the market you may look back and say, wow, we've only given up what we earned in the last two or three weeks. But it sure doesn't seem that way. So if you look at the flip side of that coin and you understand that the market goes up slowly and it drops quickly, what would the flip side of that coin be if we said we're not looking at the 10 best days each year, we're looking at the 10 worst days each year. Well, if you eliminate the 10 worst days each year than your average annual return goes up to about 30% per year for the last 85 years. So, it's almost more important to miss those worst 10 days than it is to participate in the 10 best. The other interesting thing in this study was that the correlation between the 10 best days and the 10 worst. What happens a lot of the time is that after you have a big drop in the market, the market might sell off 200 points and the next day it comes back 150, you're still not back to where you were two days ago. But at the end of the day when it adds up every individual day throughout the year you'll see that 150 point increase day and say that's one of the 10 best days of the year. So, what happens is it gets blended together with the correlation between the 10 worst and the 10 best. Interesting follow up on the study, if you avoid both the 10 best and the 10 worst, the average annual return on the stock market in this country for the last 85 years is about 20% per year. Now I'm not saying that we're going to be able to provide you with 20% returns per year, certainly not. What I'm saying is, it's a very important distinction that there are times that you want to be in the market but there are times that you want to be out of the market.

So if this is accurate, it's more important to miss the bad days then be invested during the good days.

Good data, but what do we do with that? Please let me know when you find a way to identify the worst days ahead of time.

While you’re at it, let me know the 10-20 stocks that will be responsible for most of the market’s gains the next 10-20 years as has been the case for decades now. Then we’ll be cooking with gas.

Honestly, I've always taken those studies to mean that you should stay invested in the market if it fits your timeline and risk capacity, even in down markets.

Of course, if it doesn't meet those criteria, then get out of the market.

 

[identikit]

Looks like a nice bump for NVDA at the open...

Up 3% pre-market

 

[Todem]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

Found what I was looking for... https://www.amsria.com/videos/v/market-volatility-10-best-days-vs-10-worst-days#:~:text=Well, if you eliminate the,participate in the 10 best.

Market Volatility: 10 Best Days vs 10 Worst Days​

An interesting thing in our industry, years ago the mutual funds family used to bring out this report where they would show you that the 10 best days of the year were the contributing factor to what your returns would be. Over the last 85 years the S&P 500 in this country has averaged around 10 ½% but this study would show you that if you missed the 10 best trading days each year, that return went to zero. The average return if you missed the 10 best days each year was 0% on average per year. Well that's interesting but if you think about how the market works, it doesn't necessarily have an equal balance to the good days and the bad days. The market kind of goes up unceremoniously without fanfare, without headlines, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, and then boom we get a bad headline and it drops pretty dramatically. The market doesn't generally buy emotionally. It doesn't panic buy. The market panic sells. So what happens is the market tends to go up and then it tends to drop. And when you see these big days that we have multiple hundred point drops in the market you may look back and say, wow, we've only given up what we earned in the last two or three weeks. But it sure doesn't seem that way. So if you look at the flip side of that coin and you understand that the market goes up slowly and it drops quickly, what would the flip side of that coin be if we said we're not looking at the 10 best days each year, we're looking at the 10 worst days each year. Well, if you eliminate the 10 worst days each year than your average annual return goes up to about 30% per year for the last 85 years. So, it's almost more important to miss those worst 10 days than it is to participate in the 10 best. The other interesting thing in this study was that the correlation between the 10 best days and the 10 worst. What happens a lot of the time is that after you have a big drop in the market, the market might sell off 200 points and the next day it comes back 150, you're still not back to where you were two days ago. But at the end of the day when it adds up every individual day throughout the year you'll see that 150 point increase day and say that's one of the 10 best days of the year. So, what happens is it gets blended together with the correlation between the 10 worst and the 10 best. Interesting follow up on the study, if you avoid both the 10 best and the 10 worst, the average annual return on the stock market in this country for the last 85 years is about 20% per year. Now I'm not saying that we're going to be able to provide you with 20% returns per year, certainly not. What I'm saying is, it's a very important distinction that there are times that you want to be in the market but there are times that you want to be out of the market.

So if this is accurate, it's more important to miss the bad days then be invested during the good days.

Good luck knowing when those 10 days are.

As was said. Knowing your time horizon and risk appetite….it’s better to stay invested over the long term.

That has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

Found what I was looking for... https://www.amsria.com/videos/v/market-volatility-10-best-days-vs-10-worst-days#:~:text=Well, if you eliminate the,participate in the 10 best.

Market Volatility: 10 Best Days vs 10 Worst Days​

An interesting thing in our industry, years ago the mutual funds family used to bring out this report where they would show you that the 10 best days of the year were the contributing factor to what your returns would be. Over the last 85 years the S&P 500 in this country has averaged around 10 ½% but this study would show you that if you missed the 10 best trading days each year, that return went to zero. The average return if you missed the 10 best days each year was 0% on average per year. Well that's interesting but if you think about how the market works, it doesn't necessarily have an equal balance to the good days and the bad days. The market kind of goes up unceremoniously without fanfare, without headlines, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, and then boom we get a bad headline and it drops pretty dramatically. The market doesn't generally buy emotionally. It doesn't panic buy. The market panic sells. So what happens is the market tends to go up and then it tends to drop. And when you see these big days that we have multiple hundred point drops in the market you may look back and say, wow, we've only given up what we earned in the last two or three weeks. But it sure doesn't seem that way. So if you look at the flip side of that coin and you understand that the market goes up slowly and it drops quickly, what would the flip side of that coin be if we said we're not looking at the 10 best days each year, we're looking at the 10 worst days each year. Well, if you eliminate the 10 worst days each year than your average annual return goes up to about 30% per year for the last 85 years. So, it's almost more important to miss those worst 10 days than it is to participate in the 10 best. The other interesting thing in this study was that the correlation between the 10 best days and the 10 worst. What happens a lot of the time is that after you have a big drop in the market, the market might sell off 200 points and the next day it comes back 150, you're still not back to where you were two days ago. But at the end of the day when it adds up every individual day throughout the year you'll see that 150 point increase day and say that's one of the 10 best days of the year. So, what happens is it gets blended together with the correlation between the 10 worst and the 10 best. Interesting follow up on the study, if you avoid both the 10 best and the 10 worst, the average annual return on the stock market in this country for the last 85 years is about 20% per year. Now I'm not saying that we're going to be able to provide you with 20% returns per year, certainly not. What I'm saying is, it's a very important distinction that there are times that you want to be in the market but there are times that you want to be out of the market.

So if this is accurate, it's more important to miss the bad days then be invested during the good days.

Good luck knowing when those 10 days are.

As was said. Knowing your time horizon and risk appetite….it’s better to stay invested over the long term.

That has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Yeah. Especially since often those 10 best days are in the middle of the worst days. Those countertrend bear market rallies.

 

[BassNBrew]

Wife has been bugging me to de-risk some because she doesn't trust the direction of our country, to put it mildly. So sold out of a lot of overpriced Growth stuff in all 4 of our retirement accounts this morning. Took about 25% off the table. I'll put it in the HY money market account for a bit to see what happens.
I'm pretty calm about the markets and our country long term but her peace of mind is worth forgoing any missed gains.

With money markets still paying 4.5% more or less and with the state of things globally, I'm surprised there isn't more cash on the sidelines. I read a stat yesterday that folks are sitting on much less cash now, what with the exuberance in the past few months. What could go wrong? I've been moving more defensively and even buying some puts.

There are all time record highs in cash - over $7 trillion last I saw.
Sure, us dummies, aka personal or retail investors may be less in cash and more invested.
But Institutions, private equity, pensions etc... are all HEAVY into cash. And Uncle Warren is now over 50% cash. There a lot of cash on the sidelines.

I'm in this crowd as well - too much uncertainty for my taste right now - I moved my 401K 100% to money market last week & have been trimming in ROTH & after tax accts. Sitting about 90% cash total right now. Told myself I'll revisit around when the debt ceiling/budget negotiations come around. Near record highs after the past 2 years we've had seems like a good moment to push pause and take a breath. If I miss out on some gains I'll at least be sleeping better.

Haven't gone so far as to cut bait on any losers in ROTH accounts though - gotta have something to pay attention to!

"Over the past 70 years, we've endured wars, recessions, political turmoil, financial crises, health crises, humanitarian crises, 13 recessions and 11 bear markets. Still, over that timeframe, U.S. stocks have delivered ~8% average annual returns. "

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

Who knows what the next few years will bring? Certainly none of us here in the FFA. Some here seem about ready to begin building bunkers while others are actively gloating. I know I'm still fighting all of the cognitive biases that are highly likely to negatively impact the outcome of my investing, sometimes successfully, sometimes not so much. But for now I'll take solace in looking at history and the resilience of our equity markets and know that while near-term volatility could absolutely impact my intermediate term plans in ways I may not like, the long-term plan hasn't changed.

Found what I was looking for... https://www.amsria.com/videos/v/market-volatility-10-best-days-vs-10-worst-days#:~:text=Well, if you eliminate the,participate in the 10 best.

Market Volatility: 10 Best Days vs 10 Worst Days​

An interesting thing in our industry, years ago the mutual funds family used to bring out this report where they would show you that the 10 best days of the year were the contributing factor to what your returns would be. Over the last 85 years the S&P 500 in this country has averaged around 10 ½% but this study would show you that if you missed the 10 best trading days each year, that return went to zero. The average return if you missed the 10 best days each year was 0% on average per year. Well that's interesting but if you think about how the market works, it doesn't necessarily have an equal balance to the good days and the bad days. The market kind of goes up unceremoniously without fanfare, without headlines, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, it goes up a little bit, and then boom we get a bad headline and it drops pretty dramatically. The market doesn't generally buy emotionally. It doesn't panic buy. The market panic sells. So what happens is the market tends to go up and then it tends to drop. And when you see these big days that we have multiple hundred point drops in the market you may look back and say, wow, we've only given up what we earned in the last two or three weeks. But it sure doesn't seem that way. So if you look at the flip side of that coin and you understand that the market goes up slowly and it drops quickly, what would the flip side of that coin be if we said we're not looking at the 10 best days each year, we're looking at the 10 worst days each year. Well, if you eliminate the 10 worst days each year than your average annual return goes up to about 30% per year for the last 85 years. So, it's almost more important to miss those worst 10 days than it is to participate in the 10 best. The other interesting thing in this study was that the correlation between the 10 best days and the 10 worst. What happens a lot of the time is that after you have a big drop in the market, the market might sell off 200 points and the next day it comes back 150, you're still not back to where you were two days ago. But at the end of the day when it adds up every individual day throughout the year you'll see that 150 point increase day and say that's one of the 10 best days of the year. So, what happens is it gets blended together with the correlation between the 10 worst and the 10 best. Interesting follow up on the study, if you avoid both the 10 best and the 10 worst, the average annual return on the stock market in this country for the last 85 years is about 20% per year. Now I'm not saying that we're going to be able to provide you with 20% returns per year, certainly not. What I'm saying is, it's a very important distinction that there are times that you want to be in the market but there are times that you want to be out of the market.

So if this is accurate, it's more important to miss the bad days then be invested during the good days.

Good data, but what do we do with that? Please let me know when you find a way to identify the worst days ahead of time.

While you’re at it, let me know the 10-20 stocks that will be responsible for most of the market’s gains the next 10-20 years as has been the case for decades now. Then we’ll be cooking with gas.

Probably the same that we do with this

I also look at data like this that shows over this particular 20 year period (03-22) that missing the 10 best days in the market - 7 of which took place in Bear markets! - cost you more than half of the market returns over that timeframe.

As far as identifying bad days....when an illness starts killing people in mass in China, it's time to sell. When a company like Applovin has a PE 2x Nvida, it's time to trim

Regarding your last statement, they 10-20 are probably stocks we discuss here. Probably tech and not utilities or cyclicals. Obviously can't get them all right, but one of the points of this thread is to help each other find them.

 

[BassNBrew]

So tariffs back on for now. Any way to capitalize on this or to we just operate under the premise that this will be an on and off policy?