Stock Thread (10 Viewers)

[Sand]

PSA: Let's stick to stupid memes and away from admin/Congress. This thread is too important to lose.

This is me today. Maybe a few tears you can't see.

 

[Sand]

Wow, there are like 5 pages to catch up on. Another time.

I did read enough this week to see a lot of buyers in here. That's not bad and this thread has clearly evolved into more and more savvy investors over the years. But that pandemic really is not that far in the rearview mirror and I get the vibe of hey, we got another big sale here, not gonna miss this one! And not just here, everywhere. And there are stats to prove as much.

In the long-run, yep, it's a good idea and you'll be fine down the road. But I would be careful how to go about it is all I'm saying.

The big money left the last couple months and boy were they right. I saw some charts today showing it's retail / the little guys that are jumping back in, not the big boys. Most institutions are on the sidelines, still. Even the last couple huge down days, you didn't see any buying into the close after the huge losses.

I'm not a fan of this dynamic, overall. And much prefer a contrarian take on the retail side.

Basically I nibble a bit on the buy side to remind myself not to sell.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I agree with @Harry Frogfish and I haven't touched the buy button yet.

I cleared 30% cash right around the same time a lot of other people in this thread did. A lot of people seemed to re-deploy that in a few days after a couple of 2% drops. Meh, I didn't take a chance timing the market to nick off a few percent. I didn't do it for 20%. I did it to buy stuff up at the absolute bottom of the barrel.

At this point I've set re-buy orders at the prices I initially sold at. So worst case if I wait for a bottom that is already here at least I get back in where I left on the way back up and am not out anything. But barring that safety net, I am in this to pick up the scraps. I may start dabbling but I'm not REALLY buying until we either see a clear bottom or we get blood in the streets. I'm talking Mag 7 down 50%+ like last time. Momentum names down 80%+.

Yes stuff like the AMZN, MSFT, META, etc are good buys on fundamentals right now based on their forward P/E especially with their current high capital spending that they can cut to beef up earnings down the road. But we saw what happened last time. These companies show ONE quarter of negative growth and all the sudden everyone is jumping ship like they're about to re-price as dividend stocks or be the next GE. Throw in some added sentiment about the AI trade dying or Facebook having no future users as they age out and these things could absolutely drop 70-80% off their highs again.

As to the broader picture, I am not worried super duper long-term, but medium term it is 100% based on how much we stick to this. If we stick with the current plan it creates a very specific set of circumstances where the thing causing recession is also inflationary, preventing the fed from using its primary tool for combating recession. Usually we go through a natural cycle of recession leading to cheaper money and lower prices which then fix the recession. But if the thing causing the recession also prevents those other things, it could be problematic.

I guess I would put it this way. I don't think a major economic crash is likely, and I think we'll be fine, but if it does happen it will be the kind of thing we look back on and say "it was so freaking obvious that an inflationary recession driver was going to be a special kind of problem".

 

[culdeus]

Always a good watch

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

youtu.be

 

[Penguin]

Continued short term pain (2+ months) then blow off the top (major short term bull run, 2-3 months) and then the worst drop since the great depression

 

[Bob Sacamano]

This is from the guy who has predicted 11 of the last 0 greatest drops since the great depression?

 

[ghostguy123]

Question that maybe someone can answer.
Take LYB for example. Their current dividend is now like 9% after dropping into the 50s.
Would you expect their dividend to hold? Or is it too hard to say with any certainty whether or not companies like this make changes, or not make changes, to their dividends?

 

[Redwes25]

Question that maybe someone can answer.
Take LYB for example. Their current dividend is now like 9% after dropping into the 50s.
Would you expect their dividend to hold? Or is it too hard to say with any certainty whether or not companies like this make changes, or not make changes, to their dividends?

You need to look at their financials to see if sustainable. What does their cash flow statement show vs how much is the dividend costing. Companies are loath to cut dividend but sometimes they are forced to. When the yield gets that high it is a sign dividend is at risk but always do your homework. For example I looked at VZ recently for my parents and it seemed pretty safe even if in that yield range. I haven’t looked at Lyondel

 

[beef]

I've been buying the drop but I'll be selling the dead cat bounce in my play money account.

IRA, up'd the contribution amount. Staying all stocks and riding the storm like Lt. Dan.

 

[Chemical X]

Question that maybe someone can answer.
Take LYB for example. Their current dividend is now like 9% after dropping into the 50s.
Would you expect their dividend to hold? Or is it too hard to say with any certainty whether or not companies like this make changes, or not make changes, to their dividends?

You need to look at their financials to see if sustainable. What does their cash flow statement show vs how much is the dividend costing. Companies are loath to cut dividend but sometimes they are forced to. When the yield gets that high it is a sign divided is at risk but always do your homework. For example I looked at VZ recently for my parents and it seemed pretty safe even if in that yield range. I haven’t looked at Lyondel

love VZ

 

[pecorino]

My birthday isn't for a few months but I know what I want. Can you imagine the market reaction on Monday if our President says these few words: "Now that we have your attention, I am calling on the leaders of every country on the globe to contact me so that we can work out a deal that will be mutually beneficial. You have seen that we are willing to endure the pain of imposing stiff tariffs as we see fit. Now let's talk. I am negating all tariffs imposed on 4/2 but will reinstate them in ____ months unless a better deal is struck with each of our trading partners. You know my number, let's negotiate." I can dream...

It's amazing to me that the entire global market could turn on a few sentences from one man.

 

[pecorino]

Question that maybe someone can answer.
Take LYB for example. Their current dividend is now like 9% after dropping into the 50s.
Would you expect their dividend to hold? Or is it too hard to say with any certainty whether or not companies like this make changes, or not make changes, to their dividends?

Short answer: It can hold in the short run but it's not sustainable. Another answer: If you are buying a stock in order to reap fat dividends, know that that stock will go down on the ex-dividend date by pretty much the exact value of the dividend paid. In other words, dividends do not just magically create money. But they do allow you to generate income from stocks without selling. They're taxed differently too.

 

[Mitchie]

My birthday isn't for a few months but I know what I want. Can you imagine the market reaction on Monday if our President says these few words: "Now that we have your attention, I am calling on the leaders of every country on the globe to contact me so that we can work out a deal that will be mutually beneficial. You have seen that we are willing to endure the pain of imposing stiff tariffs as we see fit. Now let's talk. I am negating all tariffs imposed on 4/2 but will reinstate them in ____ months unless a better deal is struck with each of our trading partners. You know my number, let's negotiate." I can dream...

It's amazing to me that the entire global market could turn on a few sentences from one man.

I'm sure there are people in his ear telling him to do this, my fear is that the stronger voices are telling him to stay the course. I pray that I'm wrong.

 

[steelerfan1]

My birthday isn't for a few months but I know what I want. Can you imagine the market reaction on Monday if our President says these few words: "Now that we have your attention, I am calling on the leaders of every country on the globe to contact me so that we can work out a deal that will be mutually beneficial. You have seen that we are willing to endure the pain of imposing stiff tariffs as we see fit. Now let's talk. I am negating all tariffs imposed on 4/2 but will reinstate them in ____ months unless a better deal is struck with each of our trading partners. You know my number, let's negotiate." I can dream...

It's amazing to me that the entire global market could turn on a few sentences from one man.

I'm sure there are people in his ear telling him to do this, my fear is that the stronger voices are telling him to stay the course. I pray that I'm wrong.

And who says one person can’t make a difference…

 

[Sand]

A good analysis and outlook for the market:

The "Liberation Day" Tariffs Crash The Market

Explore how the 'Liberation Day' tariffs impacted the market and trading strategies in our latest research report.

realinvestmentadvice.com

 

[Sammy3469]

Somebody up thread mentioned today what if he just walks all this back Sunday night after a string of billionaires yell at him all weekend and that’s in play right? I can’t see this lasting long term.

I hope that’s what happens, but the more likely scenario is the market overshoots to the downside and forces his hand. Families will start making decisions this weekend and the margin clerks will control the market Monday morning unless something flips.

 

[Sammy3469]

Here’s an X post which should link out to a WSJ article on the conundrum Apple is with pricing. Basically the China tariff eats into half the profit margins for phones and even if Apple wanted to bring the manufacturing to the US, the labor costs would be about as much of the tariffs. I think everyone can guess who is eventually going to up the price to maintain margins:

https://x.com/joannastern/status/1908521107071685026?s=46

 

[djmich]

Here’s an X post which should link out to a WSJ article on the conundrum Apple is with pricing. Basically the China tariff eats into half the profit margins for phones and even if Apple wanted to bring the manufacturing to the US, the labor costs would be about as much of the tariffs. I think everyone can guess who is eventually going to up the price to maintain margins:

https://x.com/joannastern/status/1908521107071685026?s=46

I believe Apple has 40%+ gross margins. I don't think Americans (especially in this environment) are going to pony up 34% more for a new phone on their regular upgrade cycle. I'd guess that means Apple is going to have their margins squeezed...or for sure a precipitous revenue drop. Which is why their stock is down.

That's not an opinion on if this is good or bad, just an assessment of the likely outcome if nothing on the tariff front changes.

 

[ghostguy123]

Question that maybe someone can answer.
Take LYB for example. Their current dividend is now like 9% after dropping into the 50s.
Would you expect their dividend to hold? Or is it too hard to say with any certainty whether or not companies like this make changes, or not make changes, to their dividends?

Short answer: It can hold in the short run but it's not sustainable. Another answer: If you are buying a stock in order to reap fat dividends, know that that stock will go down on the ex-dividend date by pretty much the exact value of the dividend paid. In other words, dividends do not just magically create money. But they do allow you to generate income from stocks without selling. They're taxed differently too.

I guess it's sustainability would depend on their earnings??

 

[culdeus]

Here’s an X post which should link out to a WSJ article on the conundrum Apple is with pricing. Basically the China tariff eats into half the profit margins for phones and even if Apple wanted to bring the manufacturing to the US, the labor costs would be about as much of the tariffs. I think everyone can guess who is eventually going to up the price to maintain margins:

https://x.com/joannastern/status/1908521107071685026?s=46

I believe Apple has 40%+ gross margins. I don't think Americans (especially in this environment) are going to pony up 34% more for a new phone on their regular upgrade cycle. I'd guess that means Apple is going to have their margins squeezed...or for sure a precipitous revenue drop. Which is why their stock is down.

That's not an opinion on if this is good or bad, just an assessment of the likely outcome if nothing on the tariff front changes.

This is the ultimate fallacy of the tariffs. Apple is a great example, whatever they might save in duty doing the final assembly here they lose in labor costs, and likely then some. So we are left with demand destruction which will ripple thru every industry. They left semis untouched but if nobody buys phones and cars because they are too expensive nobody buys semis anymore either.

 

[djmich]

Here’s an X post which should link out to a WSJ article on the conundrum Apple is with pricing. Basically the China tariff eats into half the profit margins for phones and even if Apple wanted to bring the manufacturing to the US, the labor costs would be about as much of the tariffs. I think everyone can guess who is eventually going to up the price to maintain margins:

https://x.com/joannastern/status/1908521107071685026?s=46

I believe Apple has 40%+ gross margins. I don't think Americans (especially in this environment) are going to pony up 34% more for a new phone on their regular upgrade cycle. I'd guess that means Apple is going to have their margins squeezed...or for sure a precipitous revenue drop. Which is why their stock is down.

That's not an opinion on if this is good or bad, just an assessment of the likely outcome if nothing on the tariff front changes.

This is the ultimate fallacy of the tariffs. Apple is a great example, whatever they might save in duty doing the final assembly here they lose in labor costs, and likely then some. So we are left with demand destruction which will ripple thru every industry. They left semis untouched but if nobody buys phones and cars because they are too expensive nobody buys semis anymore either.

Yes, but I also don't think the answer is that simple and that its completely knowable right now because a) things will change and b) market dynamics will drive.

Maybe Apple does final assembly here, which drives up cost, but creates jobs here. Impact?

Maybe Apple absorbs margin reduction of 15% to maximize demand based on new optimal equilibrium point. Gov't collects tariff, Apple aborbs some stock hit. Consumers pay some more. Consumer elongate replacement cycle and shift some spend elsewhere.

Maybe Apple tries to hold margins. Gov't collects tariffs, apple takes large demand hit, consumers shift spend to other things (increasing domestic purchases?).

Again, less about good or bad, but that I don't think what happens is a simple point A to point B or that every element of the ripple is good or bad.

 

[massraider]

Right now as citizens we each have about $100,000 of debt if you see us as shareholders of the federal deficit. That’s ugly and paying less on that is good

You think that's all that matters, or factors into interest rates? Kind of a simplistic view

 

[Sparky Polastri]

And this is what it's all about, folks. Getting the Fed to drop rates to borrow cheap money to refinance debt and buy stocks that got wiped out over tariff tantrum

If this was proven to be the truth, I would not be surprised.
A bunch of really powerful people have ugly, ugly debt and would prefer to not lose their skyscrapers.

The path we're on does not lend to the fed being able to have much of an impact using interest rates. This isn't a typical set of recession conditions.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

And this is what it's all about, folks. Getting the Fed to drop rates to borrow cheap money to refinance debt and buy stocks that got wiped out over tariff tantrum

If this was proven to be the truth, I would not be surprised.
A bunch of really powerful people have ugly, ugly debt and would prefer to not lose their skyscrapers.

Right now as citizens we each have about $100,000 of debt if you see us as shareholders of the federal deficit. That’s ugly and paying less on that is good.

I'm hoping no one is looking at this situation that way because it's very simplistic at best, flat out wrong at worst. The national debt isn't like credit card debt.

 

[Capella]

Right now as citizens we each have about $100,000 of debt if you see us as shareholders of the federal deficit.

I don’t see myself as that and the only people who think that way think the government should be run like a business.

 

[djmich]

Right now as citizens we each have about $100,000 of debt if you see us as shareholders of the federal deficit. That’s ugly and paying less on that is good

You think that's all that matters, or factors into interest rates? Kind of a simplistic view

Where did I say that. Is this where we start erecting strawmen?

Your comment was basically a conspiracy theory and it was based on rich people benefiting from lower rates to refinance debt. I simply said, well then by the same token you benefit to.

 

[djmich]

Right now as citizens we each have about $100,000 of debt if you see us as shareholders of the federal deficit.

I don’t see myself as that and the only people who think that way think the government should be run like a business.

Unfortunately we don’t get to decide what parts of the US economy we participate in and which ones you don’t. Do you believe that the governments financials don’t impact you or that the government is exempt from financial physics?

 

[Mitchie]

And this is what it's all about, folks. Getting the Fed to drop rates to borrow cheap money to refinance debt and buy stocks that got wiped out over tariff tantrum

If this was proven to be the truth, I would not be surprised.
A bunch of really powerful people have ugly, ugly debt and would prefer to not lose their skyscrapers.

Right now as citizens we each have about $100,000 of debt if you see us as shareholders of the federal deficit. That’s ugly and paying less on that is good.

Most of that is mortgage debt, most of the mortgage debt is at a fixed rate, most of the existing debt will not be impacted at all. Mortgage rates will go down and help future homebuyers but if they don't have a job because of a recession/ layoff or both it won't matter what the rate is.

 

[djmich]

And this is what it's all about, folks. Getting the Fed to drop rates to borrow cheap money to refinance debt and buy stocks that got wiped out over tariff tantrum

If this was proven to be the truth, I would not be surprised.
A bunch of really powerful people have ugly, ugly debt and would prefer to not lose their skyscrapers.

Right now as citizens we each have about $100,000 of debt if you see us as shareholders of the federal deficit. That’s ugly and paying less on that is good.

Most of that is mortgage debt, most of the mortgage debt is at a fixed rate, most of the existing debt will not be impacted at all. Mortgage rates will go down and help future homebuyers but if they don't have a job because of a recession/ layoff or both it won't matter what the rate is.

You’re referring to personal debt? I’m referring to debt of the Federal government, I think something like $9T of it needs refinancing in the next few years because I guess our leaders thought 2% rates were a bad time to lock in long term rates.

 

[Mitchie]

And this is what it's all about, folks. Getting the Fed to drop rates to borrow cheap money to refinance debt and buy stocks that got wiped out over tariff tantrum

If this was proven to be the truth, I would not be surprised.
A bunch of really powerful people have ugly, ugly debt and would prefer to not lose their skyscrapers.

Right now as citizens we each have about $100,000 of debt if you see us as shareholders of the federal deficit. That’s ugly and paying less on that is good.

Most of that is mortgage debt, most of the mortgage debt is at a fixed rate, most of the existing debt will not be impacted at all. Mortgage rates will go down and help future homebuyers but if they don't have a job because of a recession/ layoff or both it won't matter what the rate is.

You’re referring to personal debt? I’m referring to debt of the Federal government, I think something like $9T of it needs refinancing in the next few years because I guess our leaders thought 2% rates were a bad time to lock in long term rates.

Yes, I thought you were referring to personal debt, which coincidentally is also about $100,000 per person.

 

[Nugget]

we could really use an economy thread or a tariff thread or both.

 

[djmich]

we could really use an economy thread or a tariff thread or both.

And a stock, economy and tariff conspiracy theory thread!

 

[ghostguy123]

we could really use an economy thread or a tariff thread or both.

I would love love love there to be a politics thread where anything and everything could be talked about openly and freely, snark and all. I'm sure there are those kinds of forums out there, but I want the people HERE to be involved. I dont want to do that with a bunch of internet randoms(even more random that the people here, lol), I want to discuss stuff and hear stuff discussed by the people in THESE forums who I think would have good and mostly informative conversations, even if that information is opinion driven.

In fact........I'd even PAY for that thread to exist with absolutely zero rules on what can be said or how it can be said. The only rule I think might make sense would be something like a 10 post a day limit.

 

[massraider]

Your comment was basically a conspiracy theory and it was based on rich people benefiting from lower rates to refinance debt. I simply said, well then by the same token you benefit to.

If that is all you meant, then fine. It read to me as a kind of sweeping statement. No big deal.

Look, I don't believe there's a plan, like this was all cooked up by 5 billionaires that meet at a hunting lodge in Aspen, but these people can individually cast a powerful vote by not speaking out against them.

The post I quoted is definitely a theory, but I don't think it's outlandish. Mainly because our current reality is such that there is a significant amount of upside down commercial real estate debt, there is a ton of corporate debt out there from when rates were really low, from companies that probably should be out of business right now. We have also been aware that a lot of cash is on the sidelines, some smart people have pulled money from the stock market. Stock prices are inflated, some think.

A businessman who has the ear of a politician might think the tariffs are a mistake for the country, but if he thinks the tariffs pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates, and that businessman can refinance his debt, then scoop up assets at a discount, these tariffs might be a massive win for him. Is it a conspiracy if he backs the tariffs? Especially if he thinks the US will eventually wise up, and drop the tariffs? I think it's a very reasonable guess as to what could happen.

 

[BassNBrew]

Wow, there are like 5 pages to catch up on. Another time.

I did read enough this week to see a lot of buyers in here. That's not bad and this thread has clearly evolved into more and more savvy investors over the years. But that pandemic really is not that far in the rearview mirror and I get the vibe of hey, we got another big sale here, not gonna miss this one! And not just here, everywhere. And there are stats to prove as much.

In the long-run, yep, it's a good idea and you'll be fine down the road. But I would be careful how to go about it is all I'm saying.

The big money left the last couple months and boy were they right. I saw some charts today showing it's retail / the little guys that are jumping back in, not the big boys. Most institutions are on the sidelines, still. Even the last couple huge down days, you didn't see any buying into the close after the huge losses.

I'm not a fan of this dynamic, overall. And much prefer a contrarian take on the retail side.

VIC was over 40 yesterday. Every time that has happened, the market has rebounded. A lot of people are saying this time is different personally I don’t see it last time. The world economy was looking at closing for a year or two a couple prior to that our whole banking system was collapsing. A lot of the stocks are already down 30 to 40%. I’m not chasing the last few crumbs and missing out on an epic opportunity.

 

[Dezbelief]

My birthday isn't for a few months but I know what I want. Can you imagine the market reaction on Monday if our President says these few words: "Now that we have your attention, I am calling on the leaders of every country on the globe to contact me so that we can work out a deal that will be mutually beneficial. You have seen that we are willing to endure the pain of imposing stiff tariffs as we see fit. Now let's talk. I am negating all tariffs imposed on 4/2 but will reinstate them in ____ months unless a better deal is struck with each of our trading partners. You know my number, let's negotiate." I can dream...

It's amazing to me that the entire global market could turn on a few sentences from one man.

The tariffs were announced 4/2 to be implemented 4/9, I believe

 

[BassNBrew]

Wow, there are like 5 pages to catch up on. Another time.

I did read enough this week to see a lot of buyers in here. That's not bad and this thread has clearly evolved into more and more savvy investors over the years. But that pandemic really is not that far in the rearview mirror and I get the vibe of hey, we got another big sale here, not gonna miss this one! And not just here, everywhere. And there are stats to prove as much.

In the long-run, yep, it's a good idea and you'll be fine down the road. But I would be careful how to go about it is all I'm saying.

The big money left the last couple months and boy were they right. I saw some charts today showing it's retail / the little guys that are jumping back in, not the big boys. Most institutions are on the sidelines, still. Even the last couple huge down days, you didn't see any buying into the close after the huge losses.

I'm not a fan of this dynamic, overall. And much prefer a contrarian take on the retail side.

Also, I would not put any stock into what the pros are doing versus retail. 90% of the pros don’t even match the S&P 500. Their job isn’t to make clients money, it’s to prevent their client from calling them upset that they lost money and switching to someone else. I’m pretty confident that the smart retail does much better than the pros. The problem is when you look at retail, it includes the guys that are buying GameStop and Newsmax.

 

[BassNBrew]

The hardest part about being a pro is bringing in new clients and keeping old clients. I sat through a presentation of someone who shall go un mentioned , and they are absolutely amazing in my opinion. They have also backed that up with results. I’ve sat through a few others of these presentationsand wouldn’t trust those folks with anyone’s money.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Your comment was basically a conspiracy theory and it was based on rich people benefiting from lower rates to refinance debt. I simply said, well then by the same token you benefit to.

If that is all you meant, then fine. It read to me as a kind of sweeping statement. No big deal.

Look, I don't believe there's a plan, like this was all cooked up by 5 billionaires that meet at a hunting lodge in Aspen, but these people can individually cast a powerful vote by not speaking out against them.

The post I quoted is definitely a theory, but I don't think it's outlandish. Mainly because our current reality is such that there is a significant amount of upside down commercial real estate debt, there is a ton of corporate debt out there from when rates were really low, from companies that probably should be out of business right now. We have also been aware that a lot of cash is on the sidelines, some smart people have pulled money from the stock market. Stock prices are inflated, some think.

A businessman who has the ear of a politician might think the tariffs are a mistake for the country, but if he thinks the tariffs pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates, and that businessman can refinance his debt, then scoop up assets at a discount, these tariffs might be a massive win for him. Is it a conspiracy if he backs the tariffs? Especially if he thinks the US will eventually wise up, and drop the tariffs? I think it's a very reasonable guess as to what could happen.

An plan requires incentives and subsidies to reduce costs state side. Not a single one is being worked in any committee as of yesterday.

The most safe assumption is that what you see so far is the plan.

 

[Redwes25]

Wow, there are like 5 pages to catch up on. Another time.

I did read enough this week to see a lot of buyers in here. That's not bad and this thread has clearly evolved into more and more savvy investors over the years. But that pandemic really is not that far in the rearview mirror and I get the vibe of hey, we got another big sale here, not gonna miss this one! And not just here, everywhere. And there are stats to prove as much.

In the long-run, yep, it's a good idea and you'll be fine down the road. But I would be careful how to go about it is all I'm saying.

The big money left the last couple months and boy were they right. I saw some charts today showing it's retail / the little guys that are jumping back in, not the big boys. Most institutions are on the sidelines, still. Even the last couple huge down days, you didn't see any buying into the close after the huge losses.

I'm not a fan of this dynamic, overall. And much prefer a contrarian take on the retail side.

VIC was over 40 yesterday. Every time that has happened, the market has rebounded. A lot of people are saying this time is different personally I don’t see it last time. The world economy was looking at closing for a year or two a couple prior to that our whole banking system was collapsing. A lot of the stocks are already down 30 to 40%. I’m not chasing the last few crumbs and missing out on an epic opportunity.

I do think we get a rally early next week. I doubt it is a reversal of trend. If we do get that rally I might try to rebalance a little as I expect we do go lower from here. I am a buyer of tech when we go down as I was Thursday and Friday.

 

[ghostguy123]

Wow, there are like 5 pages to catch up on. Another time.

I did read enough this week to see a lot of buyers in here. That's not bad and this thread has clearly evolved into more and more savvy investors over the years. But that pandemic really is not that far in the rearview mirror and I get the vibe of hey, we got another big sale here, not gonna miss this one! And not just here, everywhere. And there are stats to prove as much.

In the long-run, yep, it's a good idea and you'll be fine down the road. But I would be careful how to go about it is all I'm saying.

The big money left the last couple months and boy were they right. I saw some charts today showing it's retail / the little guys that are jumping back in, not the big boys. Most institutions are on the sidelines, still. Even the last couple huge down days, you didn't see any buying into the close after the huge losses.

I'm not a fan of this dynamic, overall. And much prefer a contrarian take on the retail side.

VIC was over 40 yesterday. Every time that has happened, the market has rebounded. A lot of people are saying this time is different personally I don’t see it last time. The world economy was looking at closing for a year or two a couple prior to that our whole banking system was collapsing. A lot of the stocks are already down 30 to 40%. I’m not chasing the last few crumbs and missing out on an epic opportunity.

This time MIGHT be different in the sense that the current issue with the tariffs might be made worse if we do more reciprocal tariffs, then they do more, we do more, they do more.........................
I mean, technically this isn't worse than a pandemic or a banking collapse, but a few more of these and could see a repeat of this past week.
It probably also doesnt help that every news outlet (and we know which ones) are all predicting the collapse of the entire global economy.

 

[The Z Machine]

It probably also doesnt help that every news outlet (and we know which ones) are all predicting the collapse of the entire global economy.

Now that right there tells me that it's time to buy the dip.

 

[djmich]

Your comment was basically a conspiracy theory and it was based on rich people benefiting from lower rates to refinance debt. I simply said, well then by the same token you benefit to.

If that is all you meant, then fine. It read to me as a kind of sweeping statement. No big deal.

Look, I don't believe there's a plan, like this was all cooked up by 5 billionaires that meet at a hunting lodge in Aspen, but these people can individually cast a powerful vote by not speaking out against them.

The post I quoted is definitely a theory, but I don't think it's outlandish. Mainly because our current reality is such that there is a significant amount of upside down commercial real estate debt, there is a ton of corporate debt out there from when rates were really low, from companies that probably should be out of business right now. We have also been aware that a lot of cash is on the sidelines, some smart people have pulled money from the stock market. Stock prices are inflated, some think.

A businessman who has the ear of a politician might think the tariffs are a mistake for the country, but if he thinks the tariffs pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates, and that businessman can refinance his debt, then scoop up assets at a discount, these tariffs might be a massive win for him. Is it a conspiracy if he backs the tariffs? Especially if he thinks the US will eventually wise up, and drop the tariffs? I think it's a very reasonable guess as to what could happen.

Thanks, thats all I meant with that statement.

I do think its outlandish to think that the people rolling out the tariffs are doing so they or their friends who have already liquidated their assets I'd assume to avoid the downfall, will now swoop in to pick it up using levered debt. Anything is possible but seems unproductive in this thread imo. I have no doubt some people will profit handsomely from this, which describes every opportunity ever.

I'll say it again, if this becomes an amazing debt refinancing opportunity for the government and for us as individuals, only to have the market rebound (which would be required for all these cigar smoking businessmen to make money), then that would be a good outcome.

Whats interesting is that was the most telegraphed hidden agenda in history. The admin is doing exactly what Sec of Treas and Commerce said they would do.

 

[djmich]

Prognostication time.

I think the market gets worse before better. Not a call about Monday or next week necessarily, but that we see meaningful lower lows before much higher. Maybe high 4700-4800 k S&P.

I think the admin playbook is the same as last time, with a few changes. I won't get into the changes for the sake of avoiding politics, but I do believe the end result will be negotiated agreements. If not, it would be completely out of character. But it will not be the typical caves for small benefit (at least not many of them), and it will take time, which will not settle the markets in the short term. I think there will be residual higher tariffs when all is said and done, but they will be much more "acceptable" to the market.

Regardless of admin, I believe our fiscal situation is incredibly fragile, and tariffs is just one part of the equation. I also believe the market has ben ridiculously overheated and just needed a catalyst for a correction. Not cheering a correction at all, but also not blind. I hope for everyones sake things work out.

Related question...is it possible to delete posts after six months? lol

 

[ghostguy123]

Your comment was basically a conspiracy theory and it was based on rich people benefiting from lower rates to refinance debt. I simply said, well then by the same token you benefit to.

If that is all you meant, then fine. It read to me as a kind of sweeping statement. No big deal.

Look, I don't believe there's a plan, like this was all cooked up by 5 billionaires that meet at a hunting lodge in Aspen, but these people can individually cast a powerful vote by not speaking out against them.

The post I quoted is definitely a theory, but I don't think it's outlandish. Mainly because our current reality is such that there is a significant amount of upside down commercial real estate debt, there is a ton of corporate debt out there from when rates were really low, from companies that probably should be out of business right now. We have also been aware that a lot of cash is on the sidelines, some smart people have pulled money from the stock market. Stock prices are inflated, some think.

A businessman who has the ear of a politician might think the tariffs are a mistake for the country, but if he thinks the tariffs pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates, and that businessman can refinance his debt, then scoop up assets at a discount, these tariffs might be a massive win for him. Is it a conspiracy if he backs the tariffs? Especially if he thinks the US will eventually wise up, and drop the tariffs? I think it's a very reasonable guess as to what could happen.

Thanks, thats all I meant with that statement.

I do think its outlandish to think that the people rolling out the tariffs are doing so they or their friends who have already liquidated their assets I'd assume to avoid the downfall, will now swoop in to pick it up using levered debt. Anything is possible but seems unproductive in this thread imo. I have no doubt some people will profit handsomely from this, which describes every opportunity ever.

I'll say it again, if this becomes an amazing debt refinancing opportunity for the government and for us as individuals, only to have the market rebound (which would be required for all these cigar smoking businessmen to make money), then that would be a good outcome.

Whats interesting is that was the most telegraphed hidden agenda in history. The admin is doing exactly what Sec of Treas and Commerce said they would do.

How far do you think they can realistically get rates to drop (if thats what they are doing)?

 

[djmich]

Your comment was basically a conspiracy theory and it was based on rich people benefiting from lower rates to refinance debt. I simply said, well then by the same token you benefit to.

If that is all you meant, then fine. It read to me as a kind of sweeping statement. No big deal.

Look, I don't believe there's a plan, like this was all cooked up by 5 billionaires that meet at a hunting lodge in Aspen, but these people can individually cast a powerful vote by not speaking out against them.

The post I quoted is definitely a theory, but I don't think it's outlandish. Mainly because our current reality is such that there is a significant amount of upside down commercial real estate debt, there is a ton of corporate debt out there from when rates were really low, from companies that probably should be out of business right now. We have also been aware that a lot of cash is on the sidelines, some smart people have pulled money from the stock market. Stock prices are inflated, some think.

A businessman who has the ear of a politician might think the tariffs are a mistake for the country, but if he thinks the tariffs pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates, and that businessman can refinance his debt, then scoop up assets at a discount, these tariffs might be a massive win for him. Is it a conspiracy if he backs the tariffs? Especially if he thinks the US will eventually wise up, and drop the tariffs? I think it's a very reasonable guess as to what could happen.

Thanks, thats all I meant with that statement.

I do think its outlandish to think that the people rolling out the tariffs are doing so they or their friends who have already liquidated their assets I'd assume to avoid the downfall, will now swoop in to pick it up using levered debt. Anything is possible but seems unproductive in this thread imo. I have no doubt some people will profit handsomely from this, which describes every opportunity ever.

I'll say it again, if this becomes an amazing debt refinancing opportunity for the government and for us as individuals, only to have the market rebound (which would be required for all these cigar smoking businessmen to make money), then that would be a good outcome.

Whats interesting is that was the most telegraphed hidden agenda in history. The admin is doing exactly what Sec of Treas and Commerce said they would do.

How far do you think they can realistically get rates to drop (if thats what they are doing)?

Not sure, not a rate guru. IMO rates should be higher than they are now (should have been higher for many years imo). But as for the drivers I think it depends on two things.

How much the markets think we are headed for a recession or depression (I think a big chunk of whats driving them now with the tariff fears, and of course this would be bad long term).

How much they can credibly create confidence that they are materially narrowing the budget deficit (I think a smaller chunk of whats driving them now, and of course would be good long term).

 

[Rirruto]

I don't think I've anticipated a market day more than I do Monday. I was in college in 2008, so I didn't have any money. I was a buyer in 2020, but that was because the forecast seemed to be that the government would stimulate until there was a vaccine. I'm not sure 2020 is at all comparable. Maybe 2011 with the credit rating downgrade?

I'm going to keep doing what I've been doing. Retirement accounts go into SP500-tracking index funds like always. I cashed out my Nvidia/biotech plays in my gambling accounts and put them into gold and cash a few weeks ago. If there's no relevant news, I'm expecting a bad day on Monday. I'll let the margin called institutions and hedge funders sell their gold, and I'll buy it at a discount.

But the uncertainty is riveting. I cannot wait for the book about this weekend to be written in a few years. If you told me the tariffs would last 90 days, I know what I'd do. If you told me they'd not be implemented fully on Wednesday, I know what I'd do. But the not knowing is wild.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

How far do you think they can realistically get rates to drop (if thats what they are doing)?

Don't be surprised even a little bit if Powell comes out at some point telling us that rate adjustments aren't going to move the needle one way or the other in this situation. Seems like the two cuts people were predicting for this year are officially pipe dreams. I think he just stays put myself.

 

[djmich]

How far do you think they can realistically get rates to drop (if thats what they are doing)?

Don't be surprised even a little bit if Powell comes out at some point telling us that rate adjustments aren't going to move the needle one way or the other in this situation. Seems like the two cuts people were predicting for this year are officially pipe dreams. I think he just stays put myself.

Ideally we get long term rates to drop, which is less about the Fed (at least todays Fed). Short term would be nice too.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

How far do you think they can realistically get rates to drop (if thats what they are doing)?

Don't be surprised even a little bit if Powell comes out at some point telling us that rate adjustments aren't going to move the needle one way or the other in this situation. Seems like the two cuts people were predicting for this year are officially pipe dreams. I think he just stays put myself.

Ideally we get long term rates to drop, which is less about the Fed (at least todays Fed). Short term would be nice too.

Ideally, we aren't paying interest right? Wondering what role you think interest rates are playing in the current situation.