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Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
 
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
This sounds backwards to me. If inflation is imminent, they should raise rates. Powell and the Fed are in an impossible position. But they can’t cut today, IMO, nor will they raise yet. They need to see how this plays out a bit more.
 
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting
 
I think Powell was pretty clear why they aren't moving on the current action. He basically told us all that interest rates really aren't a meaningful part of the equation under these circumstances.
 
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting

I get it. That said, there's a reason why they give you a taste of the wine in one of those itty-bitty cups at the grocery store.
 
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting

I get it. That said, there's a reason why they give you a taste of the wine in one of those itty-bitty cups at the grocery store.
I think Powell views Fed independence/credibility as more important than preventing a recession of choice in the short run.
 
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting

I get it. That said, there's a reason why they give you a taste of the wine in one of those itty-bitty cups at the grocery store.
I think Powell views Fed independence/credibility as more important than preventing a recession of choice in the short run.
Which he should, especially under the current circumstances.
 
The Treasury Secretary states talks with China will begin Saturday in Switzerland. The timing of the announcement might be questionable, but Bessent is not the type to lie to Congress, so this looks like it will happen. We'll see.
 
Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.
So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market
It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.
I have him on ignore Bass……he has no idea who I am….what I do and how long I have been doing it and I want to keey it that way.

He is clearly trying to troll me….let him spew his rhetoric…..meantime thise who know….know and can continue to profit from friendly well times advice.

Carry on.
It doesn't matter who you are. It is quite sad that you perceive getting called out on making completely contradictory statements to be trolling.

And yes. Posting mic drop advice to not time the market one day and then on the next advising people to "wait because a stock it will get cheaper" is completely contradictory.
I've made a lot of money paying attention to Todem. Six figures. He's worth listening to. Calling him out isn't going to get you very far around here. And he operates in good faith.
 
Some quick nuggets for all of you on PLTR

It trades at a 400% premium over other AI software companies

73 times revenue

221 times forward earnings

Narrow Moat

Fair Value is right at the century mark of 100 a share at the most.

So what to do? If you don’t own it yet, keep waiting as it should get a little cheaper here (down 12% today).

It’s a momentum stock indeed and their earnings and revenue growth has been extremely good but lord it’s still way overvalued.

Will they be “the” AI software company? It’s priced like that already. And the run up the last 52 weeks….390% the trade happened. Now the question becomes is this a good long term investment in the AI arms race.

I say wait…..it will get a little cheaper. If you want to take a nibble today why not….but just a nibble.

The valuation is stretched hard….really rich for my taste. I even sacrificed 100% on NVDA waiting for proof. When I got it, I pushed in hard but there valuation was lower than this one when I did.

This is a high flying momentum name but they are a real player in the AI revolution. Tough call here.

Even weight and take a nibble today and buy more on the way down. It’s a risk but they have a big future ahead if they continue to execute like this.
So now valuation matters?

I thought the formula was "scoop up quality stocks now" because "no one cares what happens in 5-7-10 years."

Remember: Time in the market, not time the market
It's always mattered with Todem. He specifically mentioned scooping up quality stocks because the valuation was at decades low. The no one will care comment related to buying 20% to early. It was more important to get into the market with your cash if you were a long term investor than trying to time the bottom.
I have him on ignore Bass……he has no idea who I am….what I do and how long I have been doing it and I want to keey it that way.

He is clearly trying to troll me….let him spew his rhetoric…..meantime thise who know….know and can continue to profit from friendly well times advice.

Carry on.
It doesn't matter who you are. It is quite sad that you perceive getting called out on making completely contradictory statements to be trolling.

And yes. Posting mic drop advice to not time the market one day and then on the next advising people to "wait because a stock it will get cheaper" is completely contradictory.
I've made a lot of money paying attention to Todem. Six figures. He's worth listening to. Calling him out isn't going to get you very far around here. And he operates in good faith.
Yea, same. Most valuable poster here imo. At least to me lol
 
The Treasury Secretary states talks with China will begin Saturday in Switzerland. The timing of the announcement might be questionable, but Bessent is not the type to lie to Congress, so this looks like it will happen. We'll see.
Bessent? He's also said talks have started. He was either lying then or now. Both can't be true.
 
The Treasury Secretary states talks with China will begin Saturday in Switzerland. The timing of the announcement might be questionable, but Bessent is not the type to lie to Congress, so this looks like it will happen. We'll see.
Bessent? He's also said talks have started. He was either lying then or now. Both can't be true.
Both could be true if he was talking about having talks about having trade talks.
 
GOOG down 6% on no news that I can find. Eying it at $155.

Apple executive said searches were down for the first time in April using Safari on phones which uses google search. He then said Apple is exploring replacing google search with AI search.
LOL if that's because more people moved away from Apple phones to Google phones.

From what I heard on CNBC it has more to do with people wanting to use AI search instead of google search.
 
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting

I get it. That said, there's a reason why they give you a taste of the wine in one of those itty-bitty cups at the grocery store.
I think Powell views Fed independence/credibility as more important than preventing a recession of choice in the short run.
Which he should, especially under the current circumstances.
I have a dovish bias so I get why some may want them to cut rates now. A recession is coming, and it will put pressure on its employment mandate. Inflation from tariffs could be extreme but would be unlikely to feed into wages. I think a bigger concern though is how the long end of the curve/dollar would react to this.
 
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting

I get it. That said, there's a reason why they give you a taste of the wine in one of those itty-bitty cups at the grocery store.
I think Powell views Fed independence/credibility as more important than preventing a recession of choice in the short run.
Which he should, especially under the current circumstances.
I have a dovish bias so I get why some may want them to cut rates now. A recession is coming, and it will put pressure on its employment mandate. Inflation from tariffs could be extreme but would be unlikely to feed into wages. I think a bigger concern though is how the long end of the curve/dollar would react to this.
I don't believe we will have a recession. Slower growth this year yes.
 
Year-to-date, Google down 19%. Wow. I bought some today.
Doing the same. Not too concerned about the AI uncertainty on search. I believe Google has the money and talent to figure it out or just buy it. Obvious legal overhang impacting price, but I think if it gets broken up it may actually even do better in pieces. At least that is what I'm speculating. Been adding for a while and have a lot of powder to buy if/when it gets whacked from a legal decision. Feel much better adding GOOGL here and buying on further weakness than a lot of other stocks right now.
 
Year-to-date, Google down 19%. Wow. I bought some today.
Doing the same. Not too concerned about the AI uncertainty on search. I believe Google has the money and talent to figure it out or just buy it. Obvious legal overhang impacting price, but I think if it gets broken up it may actually even do better in pieces. At least that is what I'm speculating. Been adding for a while and have a lot of powder to buy if/when it gets whacked from a legal decision. Feel much better adding GOOGL here and buying on further weakness than a lot of other stocks right now.

I don't know, I'm torn. It's a deal on multiples but this narrative is EXACTLY the one I posted in here a few months ago when I sold most of my GOOGL.

Asking an LLM a question is just SO MUCH BETTER than the traditional google search method. You get an answer instead of having to parse through it all. You don't get a bunch of ads in your face. Faster, better, easier. It's only a matter of time before more people start realizing it.

The common answer is "oh Google will just do the same thing" and "they have so much data they can leverage to make theirs better" but both of those are putting the cart way before the horse. Their AI search is currently pretty much worst in class. The talk about "they have data" is nonsense because people say it all the time and they never deliver on it in. Google has WAY more data about travel searching but Google Vacation Rentals isn't able to compete with Airbnb, who has too much of a leg up on branding.

And they're already way behind in branding on AI. Everyone knows the name ChatGPT but hardly anyone knows wtf Gemini is. The idea they can just make it synonymous with AI search if they decide to try is silly. They are the netscape in this race, trying to gain a foothold that already have a similar leg up to the one google had in search during that battle 25 years ago.
 
Year-to-date, Google down 19%. Wow. I bought some today.
Doing the same. Not too concerned about the AI uncertainty on search. I believe Google has the money and talent to figure it out or just buy it. Obvious legal overhang impacting price, but I think if it gets broken up it may actually even do better in pieces. At least that is what I'm speculating. Been adding for a while and have a lot of powder to buy if/when it gets whacked from a legal decision. Feel much better adding GOOGL here and buying on further weakness than a lot of other stocks right now.

I don't know, I'm torn. It's a deal on multiples but this narrative is EXACTLY the one I posted in here a few months ago when I sold most of my GOOGL.

Asking an LLM a question is just SO MUCH BETTER than the traditional google search method. You get an answer instead of having to parse through it all. You don't get a bunch of ads in your face. Faster, better, easier. It's only a matter of time before more people start realizing it.

The common answer is "oh Google will just do the same thing" and "they have so much data they can leverage to make theirs better" but both of those are putting the cart way before the horse. Their AI search is currently pretty much worst in class. The talk about "they have data" is nonsense because people say it all the time and they never deliver on it in. Google has WAY more data about travel searching but Google Vacation Rentals isn't able to compete with Airbnb, who has too much of a leg up on branding.

And they're already way behind in branding on AI. Everyone knows the name ChatGPT but hardly anyone knows wtf Gemini is. The idea they can just make it synonymous with AI search if they decide to try is silly. They are the netscape in this race, trying to gain a foothold that already have a similar leg up to the one google had in search during that battle 25 years ago.

The only reason you don't get any ads is because they are subsidizing the search cost. Investors are currently footing the bill for AI searches and not consumers. Once the investor money starts to dry up they will need to start looking for a source of income and you will almost certainly be guaranteed to have lots of ads in your face.
 
Year-to-date, Google down 19%. Wow. I bought some today.
Doing the same. Not too concerned about the AI uncertainty on search. I believe Google has the money and talent to figure it out or just buy it. Obvious legal overhang impacting price, but I think if it gets broken up it may actually even do better in pieces. At least that is what I'm speculating. Been adding for a while and have a lot of powder to buy if/when it gets whacked from a legal decision. Feel much better adding GOOGL here and buying on further weakness than a lot of other stocks right now.

I don't know, I'm torn. It's a deal on multiples but this narrative is EXACTLY the one I posted in here a few months ago when I sold most of my GOOGL.

Asking an LLM a question is just SO MUCH BETTER than the traditional google search method. You get an answer instead of having to parse through it all. You don't get a bunch of ads in your face. Faster, better, easier. It's only a matter of time before more people start realizing it.

The common answer is "oh Google will just do the same thing" and "they have so much data they can leverage to make theirs better" but both of those are putting the cart way before the horse. Their AI search is currently pretty much worst in class. The talk about "they have data" is nonsense because people say it all the time and they never deliver on it in. Google has WAY more data about travel searching but Google Vacation Rentals isn't able to compete with Airbnb, who has too much of a leg up on branding.

And they're already way behind in branding on AI. Everyone knows the name ChatGPT but hardly anyone knows wtf Gemini is. The idea they can just make it synonymous with AI search if they decide to try is silly. They are the netscape in this race, trying to gain a foothold that already have a similar leg up to the one google had in search during that battle 25 years ago.

The only reason you don't get any ads is because they are subsidizing the search cost. Investors are currently footing the bill for AI searches and not consumers. Once the investor money starts to dry up they will need to start looking for a source of income and you will almost certainly be guaranteed to have lots of ads in your face.

For sure, but how many regular people are thinking "I'm tired of these insane ads on google search, but this other one that is much better in that respect will probably have ads one day so I'm not going to use it". They're looking at the difference right now, and people are currently pretty pissed at Google's overly aggressive ad structure. And rightly so, Google took it to 11, went way overboard with it because they essentially had a monopoly on search. But that has created a lot of bad will and now a real competitor is finally entering the market that might be able to capitalize on it.

This is so true
 
Year-to-date, Google down 19%. Wow. I bought some today.
Doing the same. Not too concerned about the AI uncertainty on search. I believe Google has the money and talent to figure it out or just buy it. Obvious legal overhang impacting price, but I think if it gets broken up it may actually even do better in pieces. At least that is what I'm speculating. Been adding for a while and have a lot of powder to buy if/when it gets whacked from a legal decision. Feel much better adding GOOGL here and buying on further weakness than a lot of other stocks right now.

I don't know, I'm torn. It's a deal on multiples but this narrative is EXACTLY the one I posted in here a few months ago when I sold most of my GOOGL.

Asking an LLM a question is just SO MUCH BETTER than the traditional google search method. You get an answer instead of having to parse through it all. You don't get a bunch of ads in your face. Faster, better, easier. It's only a matter of time before more people start realizing it.

The common answer is "oh Google will just do the same thing" and "they have so much data they can leverage to make theirs better" but both of those are putting the cart way before the horse. Their AI search is currently pretty much worst in class. The talk about "they have data" is nonsense because people say it all the time and they never deliver on it in. Google has WAY more data about travel searching but Google Vacation Rentals isn't able to compete with Airbnb, who has too much of a leg up on branding.

And they're already way behind in branding on AI. Everyone knows the name ChatGPT but hardly anyone knows wtf Gemini is. The idea they can just make it synonymous with AI search if they decide to try is silly. They are the netscape in this race, trying to gain a foothold that already have a similar leg up to the one google had in search during that battle 25 years ago.

The only reason you don't get any ads is because they are subsidizing the search cost. Investors are currently footing the bill for AI searches and not consumers. Once the investor money starts to dry up they will need to start looking for a source of income and you will almost certainly be guaranteed to have lots of ads in your face.

For sure, but how many regular people are thinking "I'm tired of these insane ads on google search, but this other one that is much better in that respect will probably have ads one day so I'm not going to use it". They're looking at the difference right now, and people are currently pretty pissed at Google's overly aggressive ad structure. And rightly so, Google took it to 11, went way overboard with it because they essentially had a monopoly on search. But that has created a lot of bad will and now a real competitor is finally entering the market that might be able to capitalize on it.

This is so true

Google is terrible, I agree 100%, but whatever emerges from the LLM landscape will be just as ad filled if not more so, because your average LLM search costs more to run than a google search.

They will need to make even more money on the consumer in the long run, so any ad problem will be worse.
 
Stupid question, why can't the Fed make a token rate cut like 5 basis points to signal that it's willing to act if needed but needs more data before making a larger cut?
They could but they won’t because we’re about to see a large inflation spike on purpose.
I guess I was asking could they take control of the narrative and demonstrate that we are ready to give you rate cuts if you do inflate the economy.
I think that's the point of Powell's comments after the meeting

I get it. That said, there's a reason why they give you a taste of the wine in one of those itty-bitty cups at the grocery store.
I think Powell views Fed independence/credibility as more important than preventing a recession of choice in the short run.
Which he should, especially under the current circumstances.
I have a dovish bias so I get why some may want them to cut rates now. A recession is coming, and it will put pressure on its employment mandate. Inflation from tariffs could be extreme but would be unlikely to feed into wages. I think a bigger concern though is how the long end of the curve/dollar would react to this.
I don't believe we will have a recession. Slower growth this year yes.
I don't think it is fully baked yet, but investment is frozen, and job cuts will follow. We'll see.
 
Google absolutely sucks now. I mean, at least their core business of searches is horrible.

I read a tweet that said they found evidence in the DOJ files that google purposefully made their searches less effective, forcing consumers to do additional searches, in order to make more revenue. That seems plausible given how bad their searches have been the last 5 years or so.

edit to add: I'd google a link for that, but, well, you know. Here's what I found https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-men-who-killed-google/

In practice, anything I care about or want really good answers on, I feed into ChatGPT or Grok.

Maybe they can make profit with other aspects of their business, or they can develop their own killer AI that is a real player in the market, and becomes the future of searches. Something like that needs to happen through, because I don't see much future in old school searches.

I never thought MIcrosoft and Amazon would make most of their $$$ on data centers, and not their core businesses, so there's always some unforeseen stuff that can happen.
 
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Year-to-date, Google down 19%. Wow. I bought some today.
Doing the same. Not too concerned about the AI uncertainty on search. I believe Google has the money and talent to figure it out or just buy it. Obvious legal overhang impacting price, but I think if it gets broken up it may actually even do better in pieces. At least that is what I'm speculating. Been adding for a while and have a lot of powder to buy if/when it gets whacked from a legal decision. Feel much better adding GOOGL here and buying on further weakness than a lot of other stocks right now.

I don't know, I'm torn. It's a deal on multiples but this narrative is EXACTLY the one I posted in here a few months ago when I sold most of my GOOGL.

Asking an LLM a question is just SO MUCH BETTER than the traditional google search method. You get an answer instead of having to parse through it all. You don't get a bunch of ads in your face. Faster, better, easier. It's only a matter of time before more people start realizing it.

The common answer is "oh Google will just do the same thing" and "they have so much data they can leverage to make theirs better" but both of those are putting the cart way before the horse. Their AI search is currently pretty much worst in class. The talk about "they have data" is nonsense because people say it all the time and they never deliver on it in. Google has WAY more data about travel searching but Google Vacation Rentals isn't able to compete with Airbnb, who has too much of a leg up on branding.

And they're already way behind in branding on AI. Everyone knows the name ChatGPT but hardly anyone knows wtf Gemini is. The idea they can just make it synonymous with AI search if they decide to try is silly. They are the netscape in this race, trying to gain a foothold that already have a similar leg up to the one google had in search during that battle 25 years ago.
I don't know if Google will simply do the same thing. Gemini may not be "there" but it is a different architecture, integrating into a much larger ecosystem. AI is truly early innings, but it's moving fast. I'm not even certain the OpenAI/Chatgpt model is the right path forward. As of January they said they weren't making money on pro subscriptions. I've heard estimates that Open AI makes $1 for every $2 they spend. Can they get into a margin battle with companies like Google or AWS? Maybe. If something like Deep Seek is as cost efficient as they claim, maybe Open AI is Netscape?
 
I must be a fossil as Google is the only search engine I use lol

I must be a rube because I don't know why it sucks for everybody else. I guess I've used Bing or others as well but I can't tell any difference. I mean, if I'm looking for directions to a restaurant, what is Google spitting out to infuriate users? I get there just fine.
 
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I must be a fossil as Google is the only search engine I use lol

I must be a rube because I don't why it sucks for everybody else. I guess I've used Bing or others as well but I can't tell any difference. I mean, if I'm looking for directions to a restaurant, what is Google spitting out to infuriate users? I get there just fine.

The issue google is having isn't losing share to other search engines. It's search losing share to other (better) means of finding info, which google has been unsuccessful at trying insert itself into.
 

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