Gr00vus
Footballguy
Did/will you post the % owned breakdown for all the players?
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- Thread starter eaglezzz
- Start date
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Yeah - it's actually posted. You need to find your way to the week 1 standings and then at the top there's a link there to some summary statistics.With a little pluck and imacros I actually have the raw numbers, but with 356 players that makes things a bit big in the posting department.
-QG
last year I think the limit was 24.........
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Thanks for that.I have a very highly owned team except for a couple of guys. Makes me sad.
PatrickT
Footballguy
It was the Fantasy Star and, sadly, Organized Chaos will not be doing it this year.
blend
Footballguy
Just saw that over there...truly a bummer. I'm still going to bookmark the site, b/c I like being able to check for a FreeAgent across all my MFL leagues, but I sure wish they could keep it going for the live updates.
Last year's limit was 24. I used all 24 slots last year. I am using all 30 this year. I like to be consistent.Last year's results certainly suggested that more players was better. This years tweeks, with a maximum of 30 and more expensive lower rung players is really pushing this. It will be interesting to see what happens. I personally think 30 is the way to go, but I am open to other figures if the data supports it.
Bluesbomber
Footballguy
Thanks, Should have went back, 2 TE's and same bye week 7 Doh!
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Glad to see someone is using that feature, I personally love it. Yeah, sorry about that guys, work is overbearing at this point and it requires a lot of work between when the rosters are published and now to get ready.. I will at least keep the scores running during the games so you'll have an idea where your team is at. Look for that to be available before this weekend is over.
nzranger
Footballguy
I had you bookmarked. One of my regular sites during Sunday afternoons / Monday mornings
nzranger
Footballguy
Last year finished in the top 500, but used self-created tools to help identify areas of value. This worked out well in getting to the end obviously but noone on my team stood out to help me separate from the pack, so this year I put the tools down and went from the gut..
and my gut must have told everyone what i was doing!
Better than last year to be truthful, and I do like my squad but not sure if I have enough separation again.
Of my 22 man roster (2,6,7,2,3,2) I have seven players that are under 10% owned. I guess that's good enough for a rough starting point.
RBx3 (Barber, Harrison, Hightower)
WRx1 (S.Moss)
TEx1 (Daniels)
DEFx2 (SD,TB)
I'm happy that two of what I anticpate to be my regular platoon at RB are not that commonly owned. So I guess a lot will be riding on McNabb and Moss this year to separate me at the end (if I get that far with a 22man roster!)
Between Daniels and four consistent PPR starters at RB, I believe I've got a real shot at good flex production from other than the WR spot.
And if I had a do-over now that i've seen the %owned #'s, I would switch Finley for Gates or Clark, and scrap Garcon for Cribbs and Naanee.
If you have five minutes to spare to provide some feedback I'd love to hear it. If you show me yours..
QB Philip Rivers $19
QB Ben Roethlisberger $14
RB Jerome Harrison $18
RB Marion Barber $18
RB Tim Hightower $13
RB Arian Foster $13
RB Leon Washington $8
RB Thomas Jones $7
WR Wes Welker $21
WR Santana Moss $18
WR Johnny Knox $18
WR Jabar Gaffney $16
WR Pierre Garcon $12
WR Louis Murphy $4
WR Greg Camarillo $3
TE Jermichael Finley $21
TE Owen Daniels $13
K Sebastian Janikowski $2
K Matt Bryant $2
K Jason Hanson $2
DEF San Diego Chargers $5
DEF Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3
and my gut must have told everyone what i was doing!
Better than last year to be truthful, and I do like my squad but not sure if I have enough separation again.
Of my 22 man roster (2,6,7,2,3,2) I have seven players that are under 10% owned. I guess that's good enough for a rough starting point.
RBx3 (Barber, Harrison, Hightower)
WRx1 (S.Moss)
TEx1 (Daniels)
DEFx2 (SD,TB)
I'm happy that two of what I anticpate to be my regular platoon at RB are not that commonly owned. So I guess a lot will be riding on McNabb and Moss this year to separate me at the end (if I get that far with a 22man roster!)
Between Daniels and four consistent PPR starters at RB, I believe I've got a real shot at good flex production from other than the WR spot.
And if I had a do-over now that i've seen the %owned #'s, I would switch Finley for Gates or Clark, and scrap Garcon for Cribbs and Naanee.
If you have five minutes to spare to provide some feedback I'd love to hear it. If you show me yours..
QB Philip Rivers $19
QB Ben Roethlisberger $14
RB Jerome Harrison $18
RB Marion Barber $18
RB Tim Hightower $13
RB Arian Foster $13
RB Leon Washington $8
RB Thomas Jones $7
WR Wes Welker $21
WR Santana Moss $18
WR Johnny Knox $18
WR Jabar Gaffney $16
WR Pierre Garcon $12
WR Louis Murphy $4
WR Greg Camarillo $3
TE Jermichael Finley $21
TE Owen Daniels $13
K Sebastian Janikowski $2
K Matt Bryant $2
K Jason Hanson $2
DEF San Diego Chargers $5
DEF Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3
ScottyFargo
Footballguy
for all the 122 other guys who took Roethlisberger and Holmes. Let's see if we can stick around till they can contribute.
Genester
Footballguy
How do you meet expectations, when they are boundless?
Amazing what 72,324 iterations of an entry will produce. I had DJax and Welker at one point figuring they would be $ for receptions and actively involved in their offenses. However, in the end, the lure of Andre was so enormous, I had to cave and adjust my other WRs. Driver is like Fall...he's there every year.Good luck
Psychopav
Help us, Joebi-Wan Brynobi, you're our only ho
I'm either really really smart or really really dumb because the first player on this list that's actually on my team doesn't show up until #15. I do have 4 of the bottom 10 though (woo hoo?).Here's a different spin on things. Sorry I can't do the fancy code box thing (though I'd love instructions)This is the total amount invested per NFL team (based on last FBG entry form where I didn't know), plus the average per player. XXX is for guys known not to be on a team. The other entry is for a player who chose a different line of work. I took an educated guess that Steve Smith 1 = the Carolina one. They have the same price and thus are really hard to distinguish from each other.Here you go:TEAM INVESTMENT PLAYERS AVGPERPLAYERHOU 285,958.00 14.00 20425.57GB 253,261.00 12.00 21105.08SD 168,887.00 12.00 14073.92DET 158,436.00 11.00 14403.27NE 152,262.00 13.00 11712.46SF 146,316.00 9.00 16257.33BAL 144,565.00 11.00 13142.27DAL 137,203.00 11.00 12473.00CIN 129,510.00 11.00 11773.64ATL 121,020.00 11.00 11001.82IND 120,429.00 10.00 12042.90MIN 119,657.00 11.00 10877.91NO 111,179.00 12.00 9264.92TEN 106,575.00 11.00 9688.64GIANTS 98,837.00 10.00 9883.70JETS 86,405.00 10.00 8640.50CHI 84,729.00 11.00 7702.64PIT 83,568.00 13.00 6428.31MIA 74,667.00 10.00 7466.70OAK 70,072.00 10.00 7007.20PHI 68,759.00 11.00 6250.82BUF 65,142.00 9.00 7238.00WAS 61,736.00 10.00 6173.60DEN 60,094.00 11.00 5463.09KC 53,577.00 10.00 5357.70ARI 48,807.00 8.00 6100.88TB 46,484.00 10.00 4648.40SEA 45,332.00 12.00 3777.67CAR 43,765.00 10.00 4376.50STL 42,236.00 11.00 3839.64CLE 37,888.00 10.00 3788.80JAX 34,927.00 11.00 3175.18XXX 1,714.00 9.00 190.44GOD 219.00 1.00 219.00And here for the curious are the top 25 players in terms of the amount of $ invested in them. That is to say number of entries times cost:INVESTMENT NAME POS TEAM107,588 Foster, Arian RB HOU91,392 Johnson, Andre WR HOU86,304 Rodgers, Aaron QB GB73,960 Johnson, Chris RB TEN71,799 Finley, Jermichael TE GB65,712 Rice, Ray RB BAL60,078 Gore, Frank RB SF58,261 Mathews, Ryan RB SD58,212 Johnson, Calvin WR DET54,349 Spiller, C.J. RB BUF52,979 Turner, Michael RB ATL52,866 Bradshaw, Ahmad RB GIANTS48,888 Welker, Wes WR NE48,754 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN44,739 Best, Jahvid RB DET43,524 Austin, Miles WR DAL43,296 Garcon, Pierre WR IND43,010 Schaub, Matt QB HOU39,763 Floyd, Malcom WR SD38,692 Flacco, Joe QB BAL37,856 Jennings, Greg WR GB34,080 Stafford, Matthew QB DET33,495 Moss, Randy WR NE33,021 White, Roddy WR ATL33,000 Benson, Cedric RB CINAnd finally here's the total dollars invested by position
OS INVESTMENTRB 1,104,337WR 1,074,868QB 531,846TE 325,774TD 130,638PK 96,753So there you go!-QG
Ahmad Rashad
Footballguy
Nobody's going to start just 2 WR's -- in fact, that's not allowed by the rules. Nearly everybody with studs will have to combine them with some "value-priced" guys (I would argue that Andre Johnson is a better value at his price than some of the very low-priced WR's) to fill up enough roster spots to meet the rules.For a realistic comparison, can you take those 2 studs and combine them with 4 of those value WR's? Take Williams, Berrian, Murphy, and Branch -- the 4 of those guys I have. Then, take as many "value-priced" WR's at <= $8 as you want to total the same # of points, and see which group has the better 3 or 4 scores each week. It would be an interesting comparison and a more valid test of the "studs vs. low-priced guys" theories.
Here's my team. Luckily I submitted a "rough draft" team back in mid-August, because I was pretty caught up with work & drafts over the holiday weekend and did not have a chance to tweak it.
Made it to the final 150/250 in 2008, about week 9 or 10 last year... 2010 will be interesting...
QB x 3 -- considering how inexpensive QBs were this year, i should have upgraded to a top7 QB.. still 3 QB is the way to go, especially with bye weeks, INJURY, and bad performances
Matthew Stafford $16
Chad Henne $14
Jason Campbell $11
RB x 5 --- in hindsight I would have downgraded Benson for a cheaper rb... my flex each week will probably be a RB3 b/c my WR are so poor
Ryan Mathews $29 0.00
Cedric Benson $24 0.00
Marion Barber $18 0.00
Arian Foster $13 0.00
Thomas Jones $7 0.00
WR x 5 --- really need 6 or 7 WR in a PPR best ball league.. i dropped the ball here. Dez Bryant will probably underperform and i'll be poor at WR scoring
Hakeem Nicks $24
Dez Bryant $13
Mike Williams $8
Bernard Berrian $7
Devery Henderson $4
Greg Camarillo $3
TE x 2 -- would have downgraded heath miller and got 2 cheaper TE for 3 TE total.. oh well
Zach Miller $15 0.00
Heath Miller $13 0.00
K x 4 --- kicker are so cheap, its good to have at least a 12-15 point kicker each week, and with byes & injury... important to have 1 guy playing
Stephen Gostkowski $6 0.00
Nate Kaeding $6 0.00
Rob Bironas $3 0.00
Sebastian Janikowski $2 0.00
DEF x 4 -- got the SD/KC def by committee combo.. also got some cheap defenses with bad schedules.. again so cheap, and u only play 1.. might as well maximize points
San Diego Chargers $5 0.00
Arizona Cardinals $4 0.00
Kansas City Chiefs $3 0.00
St. Louis Rams $2 0.00
Made it to the final 150/250 in 2008, about week 9 or 10 last year... 2010 will be interesting...
QB x 3 -- considering how inexpensive QBs were this year, i should have upgraded to a top7 QB.. still 3 QB is the way to go, especially with bye weeks, INJURY, and bad performances
Matthew Stafford $16
Chad Henne $14
Jason Campbell $11
RB x 5 --- in hindsight I would have downgraded Benson for a cheaper rb... my flex each week will probably be a RB3 b/c my WR are so poor
Ryan Mathews $29 0.00
Cedric Benson $24 0.00
Marion Barber $18 0.00
Arian Foster $13 0.00
Thomas Jones $7 0.00
WR x 5 --- really need 6 or 7 WR in a PPR best ball league.. i dropped the ball here. Dez Bryant will probably underperform and i'll be poor at WR scoring
Hakeem Nicks $24
Dez Bryant $13
Mike Williams $8
Bernard Berrian $7
Devery Henderson $4
Greg Camarillo $3
TE x 2 -- would have downgraded heath miller and got 2 cheaper TE for 3 TE total.. oh well
Zach Miller $15 0.00
Heath Miller $13 0.00
K x 4 --- kicker are so cheap, its good to have at least a 12-15 point kicker each week, and with byes & injury... important to have 1 guy playing
Stephen Gostkowski $6 0.00
Nate Kaeding $6 0.00
Rob Bironas $3 0.00
Sebastian Janikowski $2 0.00
DEF x 4 -- got the SD/KC def by committee combo.. also got some cheap defenses with bad schedules.. again so cheap, and u only play 1.. might as well maximize points
San Diego Chargers $5 0.00
Arizona Cardinals $4 0.00
Kansas City Chiefs $3 0.00
St. Louis Rams $2 0.00
WisWolvrns
Footballguy
$4 Henderson love start'n already...
Tyrion
Footballguy
Come on man you know that role belongs to Will Smith. I heard he has already bought the movie rights.
gregjcross
Footballguy
Shiancoe and Vernon arei gonna be very sweet TE pair for me
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Not sure why anyone would waste $21 on Finley when they could spend $12 on Shiancoe instead.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
I spent $33 on both.
PatsChowder
Footballguy
Glad to see my $4 investment in Devery Henderson is paying off in week one (9 pts in the first half). Let's see another reception or two... or ten!
PacmanBomb
Footballguy
Are the summary stats definitely correct? I'm shocked by the number of teams with 18 player rosters. Is it possible that the bug that caused TDs and PKs not to show up on some teams also affected the summary stats?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Yet if I go into the FFA and say that Americans, in general, are stupid, I get a timeout. Life is just not fair.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Well I don't think it says whether you are smart or dumb. I meant it more as an examination of how much of the total value in the game was put on each of these guys. Kinda like poker, there's only so many chips in the game and it's interesting to see what guys drew the most dollars not just the most entries. What players were considered the best value? Not totally sure what the make of it, but I think it's an interesting way to look at it.I'm as intrigued by the team totals (and average per player) as it seems to give some sense of what teams are expected to do well (or perhaps better than expected) on the offensive side of the ball (with the small weighting of defense I think that conclusion is pretty safe).Read into the inkblot what you will. If there's any particular funky question you might want me to query let me knowI'm either really really smart or really really dumb because the first player on this list that's actually on my team doesn't show up until #15. I do have 4 of the bottom 10 though (woo hoo?).Here's a different spin on things. Sorry I can't do the fancy code box thing (though I'd love instructions
-QGWisWolvrns
Footballguy
Yeah, the stats are right. 2/3rd's of the rosters were 20 or less... which in the end probably will help the 18 player teams, since they have so many friends, so while many will fall, many will still be alive longer. Kinda like a survival of the fittest with 18 player teams... It will be interesting how that will shake out.
The stats page is at: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contes.../percentown.htm
The stats page is at: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contes.../percentown.htm
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Btw, 41.53% of all of the money allocated in the contest was spent on those top 25 players. Kinda interesting in its own right.
By the way here's the summary of player slots and total investment by bye week (as a side note - this is just the bye week of the team, for exampe Montario Hardesty who now has a bye all 17 weeks is only allocated to the week 8 bye that Cleveland has).
Week: 4 Players: 33,370 Investment: 356,921
Week: 5 Players: 31,938 Investment: 355,829
Week: 6 Players: 24,343 Investment: 287,224
Week: 7 Players: 47,145 Investment: 651,228
Week: 8 Players: 41,206 Investment: 555,798
Week: 9 Players: 39,242 Investment: 451,884
Week: 10 Players: 47,564 Investment: 603,399
Week: ALL Players: 960 Investment: 1,933 (this is guys that were cut or left football - $1 Troy Williamson represents 533 of these player slots).
-QG
By the way here's the summary of player slots and total investment by bye week (as a side note - this is just the bye week of the team, for exampe Montario Hardesty who now has a bye all 17 weeks is only allocated to the week 8 bye that Cleveland has).
Week: 4 Players: 33,370 Investment: 356,921
Week: 5 Players: 31,938 Investment: 355,829
Week: 6 Players: 24,343 Investment: 287,224
Week: 7 Players: 47,145 Investment: 651,228
Week: 8 Players: 41,206 Investment: 555,798
Week: 9 Players: 39,242 Investment: 451,884
Week: 10 Players: 47,564 Investment: 603,399
Week: ALL Players: 960 Investment: 1,933 (this is guys that were cut or left football - $1 Troy Williamson represents 533 of these player slots).
-QG
My Team
Matthew Stafford $16
Jake Delhomme $7
Derek Anderson $6
Jahvid Best $27
LeSean McCoy $26
C.J. Spiller $17
Arian Foster $13
Thomas Jones $7
Calvin Johnson $27
Santana Moss $18
Malcom Floyd $17
Mike Williams $8
Laurent Robinson $7
Deion Branch $3
Patrick Crayton $3
Mark Clayton $3
Jermichael Finley $21
Brandon Pettigrew $4
Rob Gronkowski $3
Dan Carpenter $3
Matt Bryant $2
Jason Hanson $2
New Orleans Saints $4
Tennessee Titans $4
Detroit Lions $2 0.00
Matthew Stafford $16
Jake Delhomme $7
Derek Anderson $6
Jahvid Best $27
LeSean McCoy $26
C.J. Spiller $17
Arian Foster $13
Thomas Jones $7
Calvin Johnson $27
Santana Moss $18
Malcom Floyd $17
Mike Williams $8
Laurent Robinson $7
Deion Branch $3
Patrick Crayton $3
Mark Clayton $3
Jermichael Finley $21
Brandon Pettigrew $4
Rob Gronkowski $3
Dan Carpenter $3
Matt Bryant $2
Jason Hanson $2
New Orleans Saints $4
Tennessee Titans $4
Detroit Lions $2 0.00
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ratbast
Footballguy
It might actually be a risk worth taking...
Matt Ryan $16 0.00
Carson Palmer $16 0.00
Chad Henne $14 0.00
Matt Forte $20 0.00
Marion Barber $18 0.00
Chester Taylor $13 0.00
Tim Hightower $13 0.00
Arian Foster $13 0.00
Leon Washington $8 0.00
Thomas Jones $7 0.00
Tashard Choice $4 0.00
Pierre Garcon $12 0.00
Mike Thomas $11 0.00
Mike Williams $8 0.00
Lance Moore $8 0.00
Josh Cribbs $7 0.00
Legedu Naanee $7 0.00
Julian Edelman $5 0.00
Louis Murphy $4 0.00
Devery Henderson $4 0.00
John Carlson $11 0.00
Dustin Keller $9 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $3 0.00
Rob Bironas $3 0.00
Billy Cundiff $3 0.00
Rian Lindell $2 0.00
San Francisco 49ers $5 0.00
New England Patriots $4 0.00
Detroit Lions $2 0.00
Take these 5 off my 30 man roster and buy $18 Johnny Knox.
Julian Edelman $5 0.00
Tashard Choice $4 0.00
Detroit Lions $2 0.00
Louis Murphy $4 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $3 0.00
26 man roster:
Matt Ryan $16 0.00
Carson Palmer $16 0.00
Chad Henne $14 0.00
Matt Forte $20 0.00
Marion Barber $18 0.00
Chester Taylor $13 0.00
Tim Hightower $13 0.00
Arian Foster $13 0.00
Leon Washington $8 0.00
Thomas Jones $7 0.00
Johnny Knox $18
Pierre Garcon $12 0.00
Mike Thomas $11 0.00
Mike Williams $8 0.00
Lance Moore $8 0.00
Josh Cribbs $7 0.00
Legedu Naanee $7 0.00
Devery Henderson $4 0.00
John Carlson $11 0.00
Dustin Keller $9 0.00
Rob Bironas $3 0.00
Billy Cundiff $3 0.00
Rian Lindell $2 0.00
San Francisco 49ers $5 0.00
New England Patriots $4 0.00
What did I lose? My 3rd TE, 3 depth WRs and my 3rd D.
What did I gain? My most expensive WR.
I basically dropped my lowest 5 players. If I would have dropped others instead, like CTaylor, I could have bought an even better WR.
So how many times would these guys start for me?
Julian Edelman $5 0.00
Tashard Choice $4 0.00
Detroit Lions $2 0.00
Louis Murphy $4 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $3 0.00
How about Knox?
I think I am changing my own mind.
Matt Ryan $16 0.00
Carson Palmer $16 0.00
Chad Henne $14 0.00
Matt Forte $20 0.00
Marion Barber $18 0.00
Chester Taylor $13 0.00
Tim Hightower $13 0.00
Arian Foster $13 0.00
Leon Washington $8 0.00
Thomas Jones $7 0.00
Tashard Choice $4 0.00
Pierre Garcon $12 0.00
Mike Thomas $11 0.00
Mike Williams $8 0.00
Lance Moore $8 0.00
Josh Cribbs $7 0.00
Legedu Naanee $7 0.00
Julian Edelman $5 0.00
Louis Murphy $4 0.00
Devery Henderson $4 0.00
John Carlson $11 0.00
Dustin Keller $9 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $3 0.00
Rob Bironas $3 0.00
Billy Cundiff $3 0.00
Rian Lindell $2 0.00
San Francisco 49ers $5 0.00
New England Patriots $4 0.00
Detroit Lions $2 0.00
Take these 5 off my 30 man roster and buy $18 Johnny Knox.
Julian Edelman $5 0.00
Tashard Choice $4 0.00
Detroit Lions $2 0.00
Louis Murphy $4 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $3 0.00
26 man roster:
Matt Ryan $16 0.00
Carson Palmer $16 0.00
Chad Henne $14 0.00
Matt Forte $20 0.00
Marion Barber $18 0.00
Chester Taylor $13 0.00
Tim Hightower $13 0.00
Arian Foster $13 0.00
Leon Washington $8 0.00
Thomas Jones $7 0.00
Johnny Knox $18
Pierre Garcon $12 0.00
Mike Thomas $11 0.00
Mike Williams $8 0.00
Lance Moore $8 0.00
Josh Cribbs $7 0.00
Legedu Naanee $7 0.00
Devery Henderson $4 0.00
John Carlson $11 0.00
Dustin Keller $9 0.00
Rob Bironas $3 0.00
Billy Cundiff $3 0.00
Rian Lindell $2 0.00
San Francisco 49ers $5 0.00
New England Patriots $4 0.00
What did I lose? My 3rd TE, 3 depth WRs and my 3rd D.
What did I gain? My most expensive WR.
I basically dropped my lowest 5 players. If I would have dropped others instead, like CTaylor, I could have bought an even better WR.
So how many times would these guys start for me?
Julian Edelman $5 0.00
Tashard Choice $4 0.00
Detroit Lions $2 0.00
Louis Murphy $4 0.00
Rob Gronkowski $3 0.00
How about Knox?
I think I am changing my own mind.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Never did get around to breaking down my team.
Went with 26 players: 3 QB, 6 RB, 8 WR, 3 TE, 3 PK, 3 DEF
Pretty happy with it though dropping Shiancoe at the last moment makes me feel like this right now.
Anyhow:
QB ($41)
Rivers $19 Bye: 10
Stafford $16 Bye: 7
Anderson $6 Bye: 6
Changed the top two QBs at the last minute from Schaub and Ryan and allocated the $4 savings elsewhere. In a perfect world I would have just swapped out Ryan for Stafford but I did not want 2 QBs with the same bye week so I changed it to Rivers. I really like Stafford's upside this year and with the soft schedule I think Rivers is a good buy - the top 7 guy with the lowest price. Anderson at $6 is way too good to pass up. Experienced guy with a top-flight receiver and a very favorable schedule? Gotta have him. The other reason and really the biggest reason I dumped Schaub was that I didn't want to have him and Foster on the same bye. True, I'll have Stafford on that bye, but Rivers and Anderson looks better than Ryan and Anderson going into that bye.
I think a 2 QB strategy leaves too much risk - an injury will devastate your chances. Diversification is a theme of my team and is a good way to go in this kind of contest IMO.
Other guys I considered seriously: Schaub, Ryan, Brady. Palmer less so.
RB ($89)
Peterson $38 Bye: 4
Spiller $17 Bye: 6
Foster $13 Bye: 7
L Washington $8 Bye: 5
T Jones $7 Bye: 4
B Scott $6 Bye: 6
I feel good about this group. A super-stud in ADP - having him on my team is the reason that I look for value elsewhere. It's the value guys that make his presence possible. I personally prefer him to Johnson, mainly because it's a better team he's playing on which should mean more running while ahead. Spiller is on an awful team, but the price is right for a feature back with a lot of talent. Foster is the 'duh' play of the contest. Leon Washington will be good for a good number of receptions and is guaranteed a good number of touches. For $8 he's well worth it. Thomas Jones is kind of the opposite - a TD vulture who might save me during a week or two with a touchdown putting him into my flex slot and a guy who can put up numbers if he takes over the job. Scott's role is one that I think will be limited by Benson (Benson loves to get all the touches if possible) but he's great insurance and if he gets plugged into the line-up he'd be a sure home run. At $6 the price is right for that kind of upside. Again I spread the bye weeks out.
Other guys I looked at: Deangelo Williams - who could put up numbers close enough to ADP, but I just don't think that team is good enough. Toyed with a Forte/MB III combo at the same price at ADP but I felt like Spiller and Foster will do enough to fill that 2nd spot and that instead I'd be lowering the ceiling on my RB1 production most weeks. That and I just can't trust Forte with C Taylor on the scene. Also thought about Harrison, Bradshaw, Buckhalter, Fred Taylor, Brandon Jackson (esp right after Grant's head injury), and of course Tolbert.
WR ($77)
Calvin Johnson $27 Bye: 7
Jabar Gaffney $16 Bye: 9
Mike Williams $8 Bye: 4
Bernard Berrian $7 Bye: 4
Laurent Robinson $7 Bye: 9
Harry Douglas $5 Bye: 8
Louis Murphy $4 Bye: 10
Deion Branch $3 Bye: 5
Calvin Johnson was basically a must have at his price. I think he'll outperform that level. Gaffney was a guy I started adding later but is a #1 in a system he knows well with a soft schedule. Everybody loves Mike Williams and I think that's justified. Berrian (he of the 1.3 point tonight ) looks (looked?) like a guy who will see a lot of looks as a veteran on a team depleted at WR. Robinson was another must have (and I actually think I had him last year at $2 before he got hurt). He's their #1 WR with a young QB who looks better than most at his stage. They'll be behind and have to throw - someone will catch those balls. And again there's a good schedule. Not totally sure about Douglas, but at $5 he seems like value there. Murphy is another popular pick and with good reason. Soft schedule on a team with a big upgrade at QB. Branch was a last minute add. Originally I had Dwayne Jarrett here (since he won the #2 job in Carolina which isn't bad) but Branch represents crazy value with the departure of Housh.
Other guys I looked at T Owens, S Moss, S Holmes (thought about the gamble but that's too many weeks off to have for a spot that's supposed to be part of my lineup each week), D Bryant, Shipley, E Sanders, and if I had a $1 left Finneran (who I woulda taken over Tolbert)
TE ($27)
Kellen Winslow $14 Bye: 4
Anthony Fasano $7 Bye: 5
Jermaine Gresham $6 Bye: 6
Here's where I went against the tide known as Jermichael Finley. I understand those who believe in the two stud TEs to nail down the flex theory but I think it's more fruitful to bolster the RBs and WRs that have more mandatory starters. I also think there's good value up and down the TE food chain - there are many guys that will produce. Might regret swapping Shiancoe out for Winslow, but my projections had Winslow much higher and a young QB will usually rely on the TE. Fasano has the same situation in Miami and has that role nailed and will way outperform $7. Gresham is gonna be a force for the Bengals for many years. He'll have modest numbers this year but 2 or 3 really meaningful games is a realistic expectation.
Other guys I looked at were Carlson, Daniels, Shiancoe, Cooley and Hernandez
K ($7)
Bironas $3 Bye: 9
Janikowski $2 Bye: 10
Bryant $2 Bye: 8
I'm a big believe in 3 kickers and diversifying the risk. Look at tonight's game. Longwell had 4.1 and Hartley had 2.0. You never can tell when those clunkers will come up - having 3 kickers gives you a reasonable floor. Bironas and Janikowski have big legs and Bryant is on a solid team. If I was dead certain that Nugent had the job all year I'd have grabbed him as he's got a great leg. I also looked at Gano
DEF ($9)
Chicago $4 Bye: 8
Tampa Bay $3 Bye: 4
Detroit $2 Bye: 7
Again I think 3 defenses diversifies the risk and gives the best chance at having a consistent score each week. These 3 all represent good value for the $ and should do enough to give me decent numbers. Chicago and Tampa Bay both have good returners so that gives a decent chance at scores there too. I also looked at Cleveland, but they have the same bye as Chicago. Cribbs was the factor with seriously considering Cleveland. I briefly toyed with the Chargers as well.
My bye weeks set up in such a way that I have:
20 players in week 4
22 players in weeks 6 and 7
23 players in weeks 5, 8, 9, and 10
I never have less than 2 QB, 2 TEs, 2 PKs, and 2 Defenses and I never drop below 4 RB or 6 WR. I think this will be a strength that will carry me through many weeks.
Here's hoping anyway
-QG
Went with 26 players: 3 QB, 6 RB, 8 WR, 3 TE, 3 PK, 3 DEF
Pretty happy with it though dropping Shiancoe at the last moment makes me feel like this
right now.Anyhow:
QB ($41)
Rivers $19 Bye: 10
Stafford $16 Bye: 7
Anderson $6 Bye: 6
Changed the top two QBs at the last minute from Schaub and Ryan and allocated the $4 savings elsewhere. In a perfect world I would have just swapped out Ryan for Stafford but I did not want 2 QBs with the same bye week so I changed it to Rivers. I really like Stafford's upside this year and with the soft schedule I think Rivers is a good buy - the top 7 guy with the lowest price. Anderson at $6 is way too good to pass up. Experienced guy with a top-flight receiver and a very favorable schedule? Gotta have him. The other reason and really the biggest reason I dumped Schaub was that I didn't want to have him and Foster on the same bye. True, I'll have Stafford on that bye, but Rivers and Anderson looks better than Ryan and Anderson going into that bye.
I think a 2 QB strategy leaves too much risk - an injury will devastate your chances. Diversification is a theme of my team and is a good way to go in this kind of contest IMO.
Other guys I considered seriously: Schaub, Ryan, Brady. Palmer less so.
RB ($89)
Peterson $38 Bye: 4
Spiller $17 Bye: 6
Foster $13 Bye: 7
L Washington $8 Bye: 5
T Jones $7 Bye: 4
B Scott $6 Bye: 6
I feel good about this group. A super-stud in ADP - having him on my team is the reason that I look for value elsewhere. It's the value guys that make his presence possible. I personally prefer him to Johnson, mainly because it's a better team he's playing on which should mean more running while ahead. Spiller is on an awful team, but the price is right for a feature back with a lot of talent. Foster is the 'duh' play of the contest. Leon Washington will be good for a good number of receptions and is guaranteed a good number of touches. For $8 he's well worth it. Thomas Jones is kind of the opposite - a TD vulture who might save me during a week or two with a touchdown putting him into my flex slot and a guy who can put up numbers if he takes over the job. Scott's role is one that I think will be limited by Benson (Benson loves to get all the touches if possible) but he's great insurance and if he gets plugged into the line-up he'd be a sure home run. At $6 the price is right for that kind of upside. Again I spread the bye weeks out.
Other guys I looked at: Deangelo Williams - who could put up numbers close enough to ADP, but I just don't think that team is good enough. Toyed with a Forte/MB III combo at the same price at ADP but I felt like Spiller and Foster will do enough to fill that 2nd spot and that instead I'd be lowering the ceiling on my RB1 production most weeks. That and I just can't trust Forte with C Taylor on the scene. Also thought about Harrison, Bradshaw, Buckhalter, Fred Taylor, Brandon Jackson (esp right after Grant's head injury), and of course Tolbert.
WR ($77)
Calvin Johnson $27 Bye: 7
Jabar Gaffney $16 Bye: 9
Mike Williams $8 Bye: 4
Bernard Berrian $7 Bye: 4
Laurent Robinson $7 Bye: 9
Harry Douglas $5 Bye: 8
Louis Murphy $4 Bye: 10
Deion Branch $3 Bye: 5
Calvin Johnson was basically a must have at his price. I think he'll outperform that level. Gaffney was a guy I started adding later but is a #1 in a system he knows well with a soft schedule. Everybody loves Mike Williams and I think that's justified. Berrian (he of the 1.3 point tonight
) looks (looked?) like a guy who will see a lot of looks as a veteran on a team depleted at WR. Robinson was another must have (and I actually think I had him last year at $2 before he got hurt). He's their #1 WR with a young QB who looks better than most at his stage. They'll be behind and have to throw - someone will catch those balls. And again there's a good schedule. Not totally sure about Douglas, but at $5 he seems like value there. Murphy is another popular pick and with good reason. Soft schedule on a team with a big upgrade at QB. Branch was a last minute add. Originally I had Dwayne Jarrett here (since he won the #2 job in Carolina which isn't bad) but Branch represents crazy value with the departure of Housh.Other guys I looked at T Owens, S Moss, S Holmes (thought about the gamble but that's too many weeks off to have for a spot that's supposed to be part of my lineup each week), D Bryant, Shipley, E Sanders, and if I had a $1 left Finneran (who I woulda taken over Tolbert)
TE ($27)
Kellen Winslow $14 Bye: 4
Anthony Fasano $7 Bye: 5
Jermaine Gresham $6 Bye: 6
Here's where I went against the tide known as Jermichael Finley. I understand those who believe in the two stud TEs to nail down the flex theory but I think it's more fruitful to bolster the RBs and WRs that have more mandatory starters. I also think there's good value up and down the TE food chain - there are many guys that will produce. Might regret swapping Shiancoe out for Winslow, but my projections had Winslow much higher and a young QB will usually rely on the TE. Fasano has the same situation in Miami and has that role nailed and will way outperform $7. Gresham is gonna be a force for the Bengals for many years. He'll have modest numbers this year but 2 or 3 really meaningful games is a realistic expectation.
Other guys I looked at were Carlson, Daniels, Shiancoe, Cooley and Hernandez
K ($7)
Bironas $3 Bye: 9
Janikowski $2 Bye: 10
Bryant $2 Bye: 8
I'm a big believe in 3 kickers and diversifying the risk. Look at tonight's game. Longwell had 4.1 and Hartley had 2.0. You never can tell when those clunkers will come up - having 3 kickers gives you a reasonable floor. Bironas and Janikowski have big legs and Bryant is on a solid team. If I was dead certain that Nugent had the job all year I'd have grabbed him as he's got a great leg. I also looked at Gano
DEF ($9)
Chicago $4 Bye: 8
Tampa Bay $3 Bye: 4
Detroit $2 Bye: 7
Again I think 3 defenses diversifies the risk and gives the best chance at having a consistent score each week. These 3 all represent good value for the $ and should do enough to give me decent numbers. Chicago and Tampa Bay both have good returners so that gives a decent chance at scores there too. I also looked at Cleveland, but they have the same bye as Chicago. Cribbs was the factor with seriously considering Cleveland. I briefly toyed with the Chargers as well.
My bye weeks set up in such a way that I have:
20 players in week 4
22 players in weeks 6 and 7
23 players in weeks 5, 8, 9, and 10
I never have less than 2 QB, 2 TEs, 2 PKs, and 2 Defenses and I never drop below 4 RB or 6 WR. I think this will be a strength that will carry me through many weeks.
Here's hoping anyway
-QG
gregjcross
Footballguy
A well researched team no doubt. My one problem with it is that WR is so thin that unless Mike Williams and Deon Butler are studs you will be in trouble. I think you put too much juice into RB and will have too many good scores not count. Also, i dont love your TEs because its hard to believe in Winslow on Tampa when there were such better options. But, overall, the team is deep enough in most places to do very well. Having ADPt helps that too.Never did get around to breaking down my team.Went with 26 players: 3 QB, 6 RB, 8 WR, 3 TE, 3 PK, 3 DEFPretty happy with it though dropping Shiancoe at the last moment makes me feel like this
apalmer
Footballguy
I am still amazed at the quantity of teams that went with the minimum roster size. Their lack of depth will be telling in most cases in my opinion. Below I have copied and pasted the roster distribution for all entries. My 30 man roster has me among the higher roster numbers for RBs and WRs.
I think that a breakdown like the below table for ONLY the 18-man roster teams would be very interesting to see what positions had their depth stripped in order to accomodate the smaller rosters.
Thanks as always to Doug Drinnen for his active participation in the contest threads and his awesome stat work.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
=======================================================
qb 3 56 34 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
rb 1 8 35 33 15 5 2 1 0 0
wr 1 6 22 32 20 10 5 2 1 0
te 9 64 23 4 0 0 0
pk 8 63 22 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
td 10 66 20 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
I think that a breakdown like the below table for ONLY the 18-man roster teams would be very interesting to see what positions had their depth stripped in order to accomodate the smaller rosters.
Thanks as always to Doug Drinnen for his active participation in the contest threads and his awesome stat work.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
=======================================================
qb 3 56 34 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
rb 1 8 35 33 15 5 2 1 0 0
wr 1 6 22 32 20 10 5 2 1 0
te 9 64 23 4 0 0 0
pk 8 63 22 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
td 10 66 20 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Perennially? He's only had two good years. I do think he was undervalued going into this year, though. I own him in this contest and on my fantasy team.
Thanks much for this information. I can't understand where the numbers start. Does the "3" for QBs mean that 3 teams had 0 QBs or 1 QB or 2 QBs (I suspect 1 QB). What's the highest number of WRs on a team? Can you add zeros at the beginning of each line?
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Code:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12=======================================================qb 3 56 34 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 rb 1 8 35 33 15 5 2 1 0 0 wr 1 6 22 32 20 10 5 2 1 0 te 9 64 23 4 0 0 0 pk 8 63 22 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 td 10 66 20 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Last edited by a moderator:
Ok, so Team #1 will have Calvin Johnson, Wes Welker, Mike Williams, Berrian, Murphy, and Branch, and I'll throw in Gage for $2 to make a total of 7 WRs.For Team #2, I'll take Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, and a different group of value-priced WRs for roughly the same salary dollars as Team #1 (Nate Washington, Josh Morgan, Devery Henderson, Jarrett, and Camarillo).For Team #3, I'll take Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, and value-priced WRs for roughly the same salary dollars (Laurent Robinson, Chris Chambers, Murphy, Shipley, and Gage).For Team #4, I'll take Andre Johnson and a group of value-priced WRs for roughly the same salary dollars (MWilliams, Robinson, Hartline, Morgan, Murphy, Henderson, Branch, Camarillo, and Gage).For Team #5, I'll take Jabar Gaffney and a bunch of value-priced WRs for the same salary dollars (NWashington, Berrian, Robinson, Chambers, Hartline, Morgan, Murphy, Branch, Shipley, Camarillo, and Jarrett).For Team #6, I'll take no studs and a large group of value-priced WRs (for roughly the same salary dollars) and see how they do against Teams #1-5 (MWilliams, NWashington, Berrian, Robinson, Chambers, Hartline, Naanee, Morgan, Douglas, Henderson, Murphy, Branch, Shipley, and Jarrett).Each week, I'll compute the top 3 scores and the top 4 scores for each team. So Teams #1-3 will have two top-rated WRs and Teams #4-6 will emphasize the larger group of value-priced WRs. I'll try to do it for the first 10 weeks of the season so all teams will be affected equally by bye weeks. I'll combine the scores for Teams 1-3 (teams with 2 studs), and compare against the combined scores for Teams #4-6 (teams emphasizing low-priced guys).
Bob N. Weaver
Footballguy
What's the cutoff after last night? 
I'm interested in seeing this, but I don't think you should combine teams 1 through 3 and teams 4 through 6, instead just rank them 1 through 6. The reason is that I think the teams that are picking the studs, know that it's riskier, but are doing so because they think "if" they hit, they'll be in a better position to win the contest. Combining them doesn't tell us much because teams can only select one strategy.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
-QG
I vow to create a central page where I will update all contest/sim/powerranking links throughout the season. Probably won't be done before week 1, but I think week 2 or week 3 is likely.
Some food for thought. Last year, the top three receivers in the contest were Johnson, Moss and Wayne (all high dollar guys). Combined they averaged 52 pts a game week 1-13, with a minimum score of 32 pts (week 12).The best scores each week from the 10 receivers ranked 31-40 (listed below) averaged 51 pts a game, with a minimum score of 38 pts (week 2).The studs outscored the duds 7 times, the duds outscored the studs 6 times.So if you are lucky enough to pick the top 3 receivers, you'll likely produce the same points as 10 guys finishing in the back of the pack. I think this shows the way to go is to find get 10 guys for cheap prices who are likely to finish in the top40, rather than luck into a couple guys who will score in the top 5.Last years 31-40... Bess, Davone Cotchery, Jerricho Nicks, Hakeem Burleson, Nate Wallace, Mike Maclin, Jeremy Hester, Devin Breaston, Steve Garcon, Pierre Chambers, Chris
