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Sitting at 150.0 with Welker and Branch left -5.6 & -4.4. My percentages are a little higher than when I started the week, still a toss up...

 
Higher percentage than I expected, not that I am complaining! I need about 35 points combined from Brady and Branch to feel comfortably safe!

 
6.6% chance to move on means sayonara.

I have Welker (-8.7), Gronk and Hernandez (-2) going tonight, but I have too much ground to make up. Couldn't overcome subpar QB play - Ben, Eli and Bradford all put up stinkers.

It was fun as always - good luck to the final 250.

 
I've made the final group, however, I've lost Gore, Clayton, and Finley for the year, so probably not much of a threat to finish in the money.

 
Portis Homer said:
I've made the final group, however, I've lost Gore, Clayton, and Finley for the year, so probably not much of a threat to finish in the money.
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If you made it to the final group, I would say you are doin' alright even with the losses... Any given Sunday... or multiple Sundays as in the case of this contest!
 
Missed last week by 0.7 points and this week I would have been at 153.5 with Gronk (-3.9), and Branch (-16)

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Looks like our hopes for 100% Foster ownership in the final 250 have been dashed. This non-Foster owner has a 100% chance of surviving this week according to the sim.
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Just at a glance, that looks like a pretty unique team.That's exactly the kind of team I was talking about earlier with the 249 clones vs 1 unique team discussion...

If Boldin and Jennings and Mendenhall - 3 players I assume are very lightly owned at this point - were to put up good numbers over the next 3 weeks, he would have a huge leg up on everyone.

Accentuated all the more if Foster happens to struggle the next 3 weeks.

Given the chance, would I trade my team for his?

I'd seriously consider it for the uniqueness angle.

 
I took 3 kickers on my team as I thought it was a good number to help offset 2 kickers having a bad day. The irony is that I have lost Nedney to IR, and Hanson (don't know if he is coming back). I never thought that I would lose 2 of 3 kickers when this contest started. Figured that was the safest position. ;)

 
Sim shows me with a .9 chance of moving on and I think that's being generous. I knew I was done when 200 Aaron Rodgers owners got a good game while not a single one of my 3 QB's broke 10 points.

Would have been the third time in 4 tries I made the final 250 but it was not to be. Fun ride with this event the past two years and congrats and good luck to those that make the final cut.

 
i have a 30+% chance so not looking good...

funny thing is, i've never really read the rules. found out last week that residents of Iowa can't receive prizes anyway. probably wouldn't have been too happy to bring home some prize money only to find out that i couldn't accept it.

:ptts:

 
gradyholt said:
bagger said:
i am only at 9% with 4 guys going...sanchez (-16), LT (-12), Welker (-8), and Gronkowski (-5) or so.
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What does the (-12) mean? expected points? where can i find this information?
Click to expand...
That means the player he's currently using as RB2 (or flex) scored 12 points, so LT would need to score more than 12 points to move into the starting lineup. So basically, only points that LT scores in excess of 12 will count.
 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
gradyholt said:
bagger said:
i am only at 9% with 4 guys going...sanchez (-16), LT (-12), Welker (-8), and Gronkowski (-5) or so.
Click to expand...
What does the (-12) mean? expected points? where can i find this information?
Click to expand...
That means the player he's currently using as RB2 (or flex) scored 12 points, so LT would need to score more than 12 points to move into the starting lineup. So basically, only points that LT scores in excess of 12 will count.
Click to expand...
thanks. i'm easily confused :thumbup: I have welker, braylon, and branch going and will have to use 2 of the 3 of them. need about 38 to get me safely over 170.
 
gradyholt said:
thanks. i'm easily confused :thumbup: I have welker, braylon, and branch going and will have to use 2 of the 3 of them. need about 38 to get me safely over 170.
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I'll cheer for Branch (especially as I have him going as well!!!) :jawdrop:
 
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gradyholt said:
i have a 30+% chance so not looking good...funny thing is, i've never really read the rules. found out last week that residents of Iowa can't receive prizes anyway. probably wouldn't have been too happy to bring home some prize money only to find out that i couldn't accept it. :goodposting:
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I'm sure something could have been worked out. A free 1000-year subscription for finishing first, maybe?
 
Saint said:
I took 3 kickers on my team as I thought it was a good number to help offset 2 kickers having a bad day. The irony is that I have lost Nedney to IR, and Hanson (don't know if he is coming back). I never thought that I would lose 2 of 3 kickers when this contest started. Figured that was the safest position. :kicksrock:
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Odds are a little higher that two of three team defenses wouldn't be lost to injury.K is probably the 2nd safest position though.
 
Das Boot said:
Saint said:
I took 3 kickers on my team as I thought it was a good number to help offset 2 kickers having a bad day. The irony is that I have lost Nedney to IR, and Hanson (don't know if he is coming back). I never thought that I would lose 2 of 3 kickers when this contest started. Figured that was the safest position. :(
Click to expand...
Odds are a little higher that two of three team defenses wouldn't be lost to injury.K is probably the 2nd safest position though.
Click to expand...
I was thinking that at first, but then i remembered the impact of the steeler's losing polamalu and the ravens losing ray lewis. Both defenses were hit hard. I figured those guys have a higher liklihood of being injured compared to kickers. :)
 
155ish at the half, with Brady, Holmes, and Branch all going full strength from here in! Not gonna be pretty, but it looks possible!

 
Sounds like a lot of Brady owners on the bubble, myself included.

We need the Jets to score and stay in the game so Brady keeps throwing.

Wait, what am I saying....the Patriots never stop throwing.

 
173.5 at Q3 end plus I expect a couple points still from garbage time :thumbup: ! Looks like I'm meeting my 249 friends in the finals!

is the final 250 in 3 out of 5 years a good thing? I think the 2 years I bounced early it was in week 11 and 12... :)

 
That dropped Holmes pass in the end zone made it exciting, but I'm coming up a handful of points short tonight. Think Andy is out, too, which leaves Joe as the last staffer standing.

Go Joe!!

 
Heh, guess my woulda coulda shoulda can stop. My entry that knocked out last week would be done at 163.50. The "path not taken" entry that I tweaked would be at 152.75.

Anyhow, stay tuned for my unofficial scores with the percentages owned.

-QG

 
Ownership percentages for Monday Night those sweating the Turk - there's a lot to sweat:

Player, % owned, score

Sanchez, 0.4, 7.2

LT2, 23.1, 7.1

Greene, 1.0, 7.2

S Holmes, 5.8, 14.2

B Edwards, 2.4, 5.9

McKnight, 0.0, 1.9

Cotchery, 0.6, 2.9

Keller, 7.6, 7.2

Folk 2.4 4.0

Jets D, 6.6, 3.0

Brady, 11.7, 40.6

F Taylor, 12.9, 0.9 will be interesting if this drags anyone over the line :)

Faulk, 0.2, 0.0

Brandon Tate 1.4, 8.0

S Morris, 4.2, 0.9 will also be interesting if THIS drags anyone over the line :)

A Hernandez, 24.7, 15.6

Edelman, 7.8, 0.0

Welker, 26.0, 21.0

D Branch, 34.8, 15.4

S Graham, 0.8, 11.0

R Gronkowski, 33.0, 2.7

NE Defense, 4.6, 7.0

Good luck to those sweating the Turk and congrats to those who make it :excited:

-QG

 
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A little over 170 and according to the sim was at 98.9% likely to make the final 250, going into tonight.

After not benefitting from tonight's NE explosion feeling really :goodposting: right now...

What's the chance the that the cut remains in the 160s now?

 
LittlePhatty said:
Project Mayhem said:
How much will this big game by Brady inch up the cut?
Click to expand...
59 live entries (11.8%) with Brady. It will move it up, but I have no idea how much.
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I'll get the back of my envelope out (i.e. guess completely).Figure half the entries with Brady are already above the cut. Perhaps a bad assumption but this is an envelope we're talking here.So about maybe, 30 entries below the line have Brady. Figure half of those probably gained 20+ points and that 2/3 of them jumped above the cut. Figure that of the rest they got maybe a 10-point bump and 1/3 of them jumped above the cut. So that's 15 that jump above the cut. Sounds like a few points to me.All that said, all we've got is the Turkomatic sim that estimated a mid-160s cut. We don't know where that 250th player person was to start the day (i.e. with all Jets and Patriots at zero points).So at the end of the day, given that there was a definite ownership bias to Patriots and that 4 of them had at least 15 points. I'll say that the 80th-percentile Turkomatic cut line is about where the number will be. -QG
 
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