Dezbelief
Footballguy
He said something was telling him to select that box, he either consciously or subconsciously noticed.
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Survivor Season 42: Starts Wednesday March 9, 2022 (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter NewlyRetired
- Start date
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
no one cares
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I can’t wait until tomorrow’s episode airs and we can discuss something else in this thread.
krista4
Footballguy
My bet is that an immunity challenge involving taking steps halfway to a goal will lead to a rousing discussion of Zeno's Paradox.
The Noid
Avoid me!
Sorry, last post about it, I promise:
Switching boxes has a binary outcome: you either will be right or wrong. That's not the same as 50/50 odds of winning.
Just like a scratch off lottery ticket will either be a winner or a loser, but the odds are not 50/50 that you win.
Switching boxes has a binary outcome: you either will be right or wrong. That's not the same as 50/50 odds of winning.
Just like a scratch off lottery ticket will either be a winner or a loser, but the odds are not 50/50 that you win.
mr. furley
Footballguy
so glad that i'm too dumb to understand this stuff
El Floppo
Footballguy
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
I'm glad that they were having the race/culture discussion, and allowed people from both sides to speak.
but what I thought was interesting was that Liana said something to the effect that she was glad that POC were sitting there are tribal, and then named herself, Danny, and Deshawn, but did not name Erika. seems a little hypocritical.
but what I thought was interesting was that Liana said something to the effect that she was glad that POC were sitting there are tribal, and then named herself, Danny, and Deshawn, but did not name Erika. seems a little hypocritical.
mr. furley
Footballguy
Ricard is Puerto Rican, too
she excluded Ricard and Erika.
just kind of a weird moment all around.
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
agreed on Ricard. just thought it was a little extra weird with Erika because Erika was sitting next to Deshawn and in front of Danny, so she was directly in Liana's line of sight when she mentioned the other two.mr. furley said:
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
As a white man, I won't pretend to understand, but my thought was that it's been different (harder) to be black than Asian or Latino lately with all the high-profile killings at the hands of police. Obviously the George Floyd murder was a worldwide huge story and was very recent, and several of their talks on the island did specifically mention Floyd and the protests that followed, etc.
Obviously all people of color face horrible things in this country every day, so I didn't think they were trying exclude Erika or Ricard. I think they were just talking about the singular experience of what it's like to be black in America.
You never know what did and didn't get edited out, and how it all comes together on the air might not be showing the complete conversation or picture.
jhib
Footballguy
Jeff working too hard this season trying to make unexciting things sound exciting. That whole part where Deshawn mentioned letters from loved ones and Jeff had an overblown reaction was just weird. And no, that sure didn't seem like "another stunning tribal" Jeff. The truth bomb seemed pretty lame, actually.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Ricard is winning if he gets to FTC. He's a challenge beast and orchestrated the biggest move of the game (the Shan blindside). Everyone knows he is the biggest threat left and in modern survivor, the biggest threat at F5 wins if they get to F3.
Deshawn can't beat Ricard but might be able to beat anyone else. He's been a major if erratic strategic force. He is the last one left from the power alliance that's now on the jury, and would have an underdog story to tell if he makes it to the end. And he's getting a lot of "big moments" in the edit despite his strategic and social blunders also being shown. Using a S33 analogy, it's possible that he is Adam Klein and Ricard is David Wright.
Erika is a wild card. She was a blank slate in the premerge but has driven some of the votes in the postmerge (tonight, her desire to boot Danny won out over Ricard's desire to boot Deshawn) and we have been shown that other players perceive her as dangerous -- and in Survivor, perception is reality. However, if she gets to FTC, she might get bagged on for leaving Ricard in the game as long as she did, as Hannah did in S33 for keeping David around. In turn, if the jury feels strongly that a woman should win after a long drought, she would be the only option (that's not a typo, see paragraph #5). She's not beating Ricard, but I can't rule her out if Ricard isn't in the F3.
No one in the postmerge except Liana ever seemed to care about booting Xander or flushing his idol -- and we got no talk at all about it this episode with Liana gone. He's played very passively, doing about zero to build counter-alliances and leverage his advantages to influence votes. And he's very young, and some jurors might be reluctant to reward $1 million to someone not old enough to drink. All this indicates a lack of respect for his game. Is Xander actually our second goat? Are we getting a FTC with Heather, Xander and X, with X sweeping the vote (X = Deshawn, Ricard or Erika)?
Heather is going to FTC and getting zero votes. This has been telegraphed for a while.
Deshawn can't beat Ricard but might be able to beat anyone else. He's been a major if erratic strategic force. He is the last one left from the power alliance that's now on the jury, and would have an underdog story to tell if he makes it to the end. And he's getting a lot of "big moments" in the edit despite his strategic and social blunders also being shown. Using a S33 analogy, it's possible that he is Adam Klein and Ricard is David Wright.
Erika is a wild card. She was a blank slate in the premerge but has driven some of the votes in the postmerge (tonight, her desire to boot Danny won out over Ricard's desire to boot Deshawn) and we have been shown that other players perceive her as dangerous -- and in Survivor, perception is reality. However, if she gets to FTC, she might get bagged on for leaving Ricard in the game as long as she did, as Hannah did in S33 for keeping David around. In turn, if the jury feels strongly that a woman should win after a long drought, she would be the only option (that's not a typo, see paragraph #5). She's not beating Ricard, but I can't rule her out if Ricard isn't in the F3.
No one in the postmerge except Liana ever seemed to care about booting Xander or flushing his idol -- and we got no talk at all about it this episode with Liana gone. He's played very passively, doing about zero to build counter-alliances and leverage his advantages to influence votes. And he's very young, and some jurors might be reluctant to reward $1 million to someone not old enough to drink. All this indicates a lack of respect for his game. Is Xander actually our second goat? Are we getting a FTC with Heather, Xander and X, with X sweeping the vote (X = Deshawn, Ricard or Erika)?
Heather is going to FTC and getting zero votes. This has been telegraphed for a while.
krista4
Footballguy
Really hate when this show lets you know 5 minutes in who is going to win immunity.
Heck, most of us knew last week when they said "we will vote him out next".. idiots
Yeah, it was clear he was going to win. And also very clear that Danny was going home tonight. The telegraphing was irritating this time.
I'm a little less excited for any "twists" now in the final five. Deshawn doesn't have any allies left, and I don't GAF about Erika, Heather, or Xander. Ricard should and will win unless some dummies get their #### together.
I really don't get why Deshawn and Danny just gave up and voted each other. If nothing else, put your votes on Xander for a 2-2-2 tie, and see if two people want to take out a major challenge threat and the guy with an idol with no risk. Or go to Erika and see if she wants to take out Heather. There should have been something they could have done with their two votes.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
The editing showed that as Deshawn's idea. Deshawn is playing for himself and was removing someone with a similar story as him. Just like he was manipulating Erika into thinking about Heather. Deshawn knew Danny would go before him. The editing showed Danny doing nothing while Deshawn was shown scrambling around talking to everyone.
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El Floppo
Footballguy
agree with just about all of that.
one thing abuot Xander... this episode- his reasoning for keeping Ricard last time actually made some sense for his game. showed me he wasn't just being passive, but was using some strategy.. even if it's strategy that won't work if he can't beat the guy in challenges. but he still has his idol, right? or is that gone after F5?
Jayrok
Footballguy
When is the last chance for Xander to play his idol? Any further idols for that matter. Thought last night's TC might have been his last opportunity to play it... when they get to final 5?
If he can play it next week then he's golden and final 4. If last night was the last opportunity and he wanted Deshaun to go home, why not play if for Danny?
If he can play it next week then he's golden and final 4. If last night was the last opportunity and he wanted Deshaun to go home, why not play if for Danny?
Yeah, getting rid of Ricard before Liana was awful for Xander, regardless of how Deshawn was trying to play it. Getting rid of Ricard last night would have been good but not last week. Last week then it’s Deshawn, Liana and Danny vs Erika, Heather and Xander and it wouldn’t be hard to flip one of Erika or Heather since they likely wouldn’t want to take a chance on rocks. Xander would have had to use his idol last night. Get rid of Liana and last night is easy if Ricard doesn’t win immunity since it would be Xander, Erika and Heather against Danny and Deshawn.
Deshawn is playing really, really hard but Xander smartly saw through the logic last week. Liana still around was terrible for Xander. To be honest, if Xander sees the end game, he should be able to get Heather and Erika on his side as the final 3. Those 3 can’t let Ricard or Deshawn get to the end or they can’t win. I’m not sure who wins, Xander or Erika. I don’t think people actually like Erika, she rubbed her tribe wrong early on and always seemed like an outsider.
rick6668
Footballguy
Spot on. Going to 3-3 with Xander, Heather and Erica against Liana, Deshawn and Danny would have been terrible for Xander. You have to worry about immunity/idols etc. Played perfectly for him. Ricard has to go, but Ricard, Deshawn and Danny have to go.
Oh, looks like I was wrong about Xander not protecting Evvie. I wasn’t wrong for the reason I was thinking. I think he had to get rid of Liana so he could have some room to breath. I was wrong because I never saw Ricard turning on Shan that soon and I didn’t see the Danny, Deshawn, Liana and Shan alliance crumbling so quickly.
Never in any scenario did I see Ricard’s right hand man being Xander. It’s a loose relationship but it’s driven the game the past 3 votes.
Never in any scenario did I see Ricard’s right hand man being Xander. It’s a loose relationship but it’s driven the game the past 3 votes.
bryhamm
Footballguy
Yeah, it's funny that 3 weeks ago there was the alliance of the 4 that with Ricard had a power 5. They could have steamrolled to the end. But, Danny and Deshaun wanting to break apart Shan and Ricard was done too soon. And what are the casualties ... 3 straight evictions of members of the power 5.
I get why Danny and Deshaun wanted to do that, but they tried to do it too soon.
I get why Danny and Deshaun wanted to do that, but they tried to do it too soon.
Mile High
Footballguy
BigJim®
Footballguy
It actually all ties back to Liana breaking trust on the plan to vote out Ricard. Didn't work out so well.
Raging weasel
Footballguy
I disliked Ricard from the beginning but at this point he deserves to win
bryhamm
Footballguy
True. But, Danny and Deshaun went to her to talk about it first. And it was before the immunity challenge even happened. Don't have that discussion until he is NOT wearing the immunity necklace.
But I get your point. If Liana had wanted the 4 to stay tight, she doesn't say anything to Shan and it all doesn't come crumbling down. But, she was tight with Shan more than the 4, so she said something.
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I think the order of winners is:
Ricard
Xander
Deshaun
Erika
Heather
Maybe the POC coalition votes helps to push Deshaun above Xander, but I think Xander has done a really impressive job of keeping himself from being a target throughout the game despite being well-liked, in the minority for a good chunk of the game, good at challenges, and holding multiple advantages throughout the game.
Ricard
Xander
Deshaun
Erika
Heather
Maybe the POC coalition votes helps to push Deshaun above Xander, but I think Xander has done a really impressive job of keeping himself from being a target throughout the game despite being well-liked, in the minority for a good chunk of the game, good at challenges, and holding multiple advantages throughout the game.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Xander still has his idol, which can only be played up to F5. So he is guaranteed to be in the final 4.
ETA: @Jayrokthis answers your question too.
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Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
It's the "meat shield" strategy as executed by Jeremy in S31. Threats band together to keep each other around because otherwise they will be picked off one by one. We saw Xander and Danny bonding at the merge, probably with this sort of thing in mind.
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
if Ricard is there at the end, he wins easily. if not, I'm not sure Xander can beat Deshawn. I think Xander has played a better game, but I don't think most of the jury would vote for him over Deshawn. if Ricard and Deshawn are both gone, Xander should win.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Don't underestimate Shan's ability to sway the jury. She appears to still strongly dislike DeShawn, and I can see her lobbying for anyone over him.
Her facial expressions at Tribal reflect pretty poorly on her. You got voted out in a game. Time to get over it.
simey
Footballguy
I have chalked up her facial expressions to the black alliance being picked off one by one, and that alliance could have possibly had a different outcome had DeShawn not voted out Shan. They had numbers. Anyway, Shan said she called DeShawn a snake, because he swore to her on their culture he would vote with her. She said that stuff was edited out, and he knew she is an activist, and he used what was dear to her heart to manipulate. It rubbed her wrong when it happened.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
They don't technically have jury speeches anymore. But since Shan was a huge character, I'm sure she'll be prominently featured in the FTC discussion.
Mile High
Footballguy
The fact Shan is the most prominently featured character and when out kind of early I wouldn't be surprised if Heather wins.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
DropKick
Footballguy
After DeShawn nearly had a nervous breakdown describing the difficulty of voting out Shan, he sure through Erika under the bus easy enough.
Big turn off for me.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
sucks danny is gone, ricard is clear front runner and deserves the win. xander is better than his edit. i don't like the rest of them.
simey
Footballguy
simey
Footballguy
Danny reminded me of a gentle giant. I hated to see him go, but it also seemed inevitable. Ricard has played well for most of the season. The others may regret not getting him out when they had the opportunity. We'll see.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Yep. It's easy for viewers to see what a strategic threat looks like and a physical threat looks like -- Ricard is both, and it's obvious that the others need to get rid of him or he'll win. It's much harder to show, and for viewers to see, what a social threat looks like. And that was Danny. It seems like EVERYONE liked him, which is hard to pull off when you are playing a game of deception with starving people from different backgrounds. And people who are well-liked get votes if they make it to FTC.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Danny basically echoed this in his exit interviews.
To Entertainment Weekly:
"If you watch the jury and you hear what people say about him, a lot of people did not respect the game that he was playing. A lot of people thought that when he stepped out of the challenges that it was for show and it wasn't because he really cared. So as the game goes on, you're like, "This guy is not an issue. Why are we worried about the idol? A lot of people want to go sit at the end with Xander so they can explain how they played a better game than he did." So it just became a non-issue, which is why I went to him and [said], "Hey, we need to vote out Heather." We never thought about voting Xander at this last Tribal Council because he's a good guy to take to the end and he can also help us beat Ricard. So it would have worked out for us two times."
To Rob Has a Podcast:
"I didn't know that he was thinking about needing Ricard as a shield, because to be honest I don't think Xander needs one." "With all due respect to Xander, I don't think anybody is worried about him winning the game. I actually think a lot of people are hoping to go to the end with him and sit next to him."
BigJim®
Footballguy
"But" nothing. It's only ironic that it was pointless after Ricard won Individual Immunity. She sunk the entire alliance being overly emotional about a secret that would have propelled her alliance. She and Shan are going to have to put one hand over an eye watching the season.bryhamm said:
bryhamm
Footballguy
Lol. Not sure how you can say "but nothing". If Danny and Deshaun don't try to go for Ricard when they did, none of this crumbles. They tossed the first stone.
Now, Ricard was not part of the group of 4, so it should not have upset Liana too much. So, I will give you that she betrayed that group first by running to Shan.
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